Trump Nixes Iran Deal as Gulf War Disrupts Energy Markets
Bessent, Greer in Paris for talks with China | Wright predicts gas price relief as Hormuz crisis persists | Fertilizer help | E15 | RFS details coming
| LINKS |
Link: Weekend Updates, March 14
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 6 (Interview with USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden)
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 6 (Vaden interview)
| The Week Ahead: March 15, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Trump rejects Iran deal as Gulf war disrupts energy markets — President Donald Trump says Tehran is seeking negotiations, but the United States will only accept tougher terms requiring Iran to abandon nuclear ambitions, as the conflict spreads across the Persian Gulf, disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping and pushes global oil markets toward $100 per barrel.
— Wright predicts gas price relief as Hormuz crisis persists — Energy Secretary Chris Wright says U.S. gasoline prices could fall below $3 per gallon by summer if the conflict stabilizes and shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, though Americans may face elevated prices for several more weeks.
— Trump invokes Defense Production Act to restart California offshore oil operations — The administration ordered Sable Offshore to revive the Santa Ynez offshore oil system to boost domestic supply and reduce dependence on imported crude amid rising geopolitical risks to global energy flows.
— U.S. and China launch new trade talks in Paris ahead of Trump/Xi summit — Senior officials from both countries began negotiations focused on tariffs, investment rules and rare-earth supply chains as groundwork for President Trump’s planned late-March summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
— U.S. and Mexico launch review of USMCA trade pact — Washington and Mexico have begun the mandatory six-year review of the North American trade deal, with Mexico concerned the Trump administration could push major revisions tightening supply chains and limiting Chinese inputs.
CONGRESS
— Congress returns with major policy issues pending — Lawmakers face a crowded agenda this week including nominations, biofuel policy disputes, fertilizer relief discussions and growing pressure to address the economic fallout from the Iran war.
— Year-round E15 legislation stalled in Congress — Despite broad bipartisan support and backing from President Trump, legislation allowing nationwide year-round E15 gasoline sales remains stuck as lawmakers struggle to find a viable legislative vehicle.
— Renewable Fuel Standard announcement expected soon — EPA is expected to release new RFS details by the end of March, with industry attention focused on a potential 2026 biomass-based diesel mandate near 5.4 billion gallons and possible reallocation of small refinery exemptions.
— Administration preparing fertilizer relief measures — USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says the White House is close to announcing actions to ease fertilizer prices, including facilitating Venezuelan supply, reviewing shipping rules and coordinating with Congress on possible farm aid.
— Congress scrutinizing fertilizer industry pricing — Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is pressing fertilizer companies for explanations on recent price increases while lawmakers explore broader competition reforms and market-oversight proposals.
POLICY AND POLITICS
— Early cost of Iran war tops $11 billion for U.S. — Analysts estimate the conflict has already cost the United States more than $11 billion, with daily expenses potentially reaching $2 billion and a supplemental war funding request expected from the Pentagon.
— Senate deadlock extends Homeland Security shutdown — A dispute over immigration enforcement continues to block passage of a DHS funding bill, pushing the partial government shutdown toward one month and creating disruptions at U.S. airports as TSA absenteeism rises.
KEY EVENTS
— Busy policy week ahead in Washington — Congressional hearings and policy forums will focus on trade, China competition, national security, infrastructure, energy policy and global economic risks tied to the Middle East conflict.
ECONOMIC REPORTS
— Federal Reserve meeting headlines the economic calendar — The FOMC concludes its meeting Wednesday with no policy change expected, alongside key data releases including housing, manufacturing and inflation indicators.
AG REPORTS
— Global agriculture data releases continue this week — USDA outlook reports, China trade statistics and the International Grains Council monthly update will provide fresh insight into global grain, livestock and dairy markets.
ENERGY REPORTS
— Energy markets remain focused on Iran war impacts — Weekly petroleum and natural-gas data, inventory reports and industry conferences will be closely watched as the conflict in the Gulf continues to influence oil prices, fuel costs and fertilizer markets.
| TOP STORIES—Trump rejects Iran deal as Gulf War disrupts energy marketsPresident says Tehran wants negotiations, but U.S. demands tougher terms while fighting spreads across the region President Donald Trump said Iran is ready to negotiate an end to the war but that the United States will not accept the current terms, signaling the conflict is likely to continue as fighting disrupts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and pushes oil prices toward $100 per barrel. “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” Trump said in a Saturday interview with NBC, adding any agreement must include Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions. Trump also urged other major powers — including China, France, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom — to join the United States in protecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil exports. The war, now in its third week, has spread across the Persian Gulf. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain reported intercepting Iranian drones and missiles, while Israel said it continues striking Iranian targets. Energy markets remain on edge as attacks disrupt Gulf infrastructure and exports. Several producers have curtailed crude output, and Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas operations amid the near-closure of Hormuz. About 3,750 people have been killed across the region since the conflict began Feb. 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The United States has lost 11 service members. —Wright predicts gas price relief as Hormuz crisis persistsEnergy secretary says prices could fall below $3 per gallon by summer if conflict risk fades and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that Americans could begin seeing relief from higher gasoline prices within “a few more weeks,” predicting there is a strong chance prices could fall below $3 per gallon by summer if the conflict with Iran stabilizes and energy supply risks ease.Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press, Wright said the Trump administration believes the current surge in fuel costs is tied largely to disruptions in global oil markets stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries roughly 20% of global oil exports.“Americans are feeling it right now,” Wright said. “Americans will feel it for a few more weeks.” Gasoline prices have climbed sharply since the war began. According to GasBuddy data cited in the interview, the national average rose from $2.94 per gallon on March 1 — the day after the conflict started — to about $3.70 per gallon by Saturday. Wright said the strait is currently not safe for shipping, but reopening the passage is a central objective of U.S. military operations and international diplomacy. “No, no it is not safe,” Wright said of the strait. “Making it safe for reopening is one of the objectives at the end of this conflict.” The administration is working with other governments to secure the key shipping lane. President Donald Trump has urged major energy-importing nations — including China, Japan, South Korea, France, and the United Kingdom — to deploy naval forces to help protect commercial shipping in the region.Wright said discussions are ongoing and suggested some countries have already expressed support, though he declined to name specific commitments.“The world depends on the flows through Hormuz,” he said, noting that Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, China, Thailand, and India rely heavily on oil moving through the strait. The energy secretary also suggested the conflict may not last much longer, saying “a few more weeks” is a likely timeframe, though he acknowledged there are “no guarantees in war.” President Trump echoed the optimistic outlook in a separate interview Saturday, arguing that the world’s oil supply remains abundant and that prices should eventually fall. “There’s so much oil, gas — there’s so much out there,” Trump said. “It’s being clogged up a little bit. It’ll be unclogged very soon.” Meanwhile, the administration has stepped up military pressure on Iran. U.S. forces recently struck Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil export hub, although Trump said energy infrastructure was largely spared to avoid long-term market disruptions. Administration officials argue that restoring safe passage through the waterway and neutralizing Iran’s military capabilities would reduce global energy risk and ultimately push fuel prices lower in the United States. —Trump invokes Defense Production Act to restart California offshore oil operationsAdministration orders Sable Offshore to revive Santa Ynez production to strengthen U.S. energy supply The Trump administration has invoked the Defense Production Act to compel the restart of previously shut-down offshore oil operations in California, arguing the move is necessary to safeguard domestic energy supplies amid mounting geopolitical risks and potential disruptions to global crude markets. On Friday, Chris Wright, the U.S. energy secretary under Donald Trump, directed Sable Offshore Corp., a Houston-based oil and gas company, to restore activity at the Santa Ynez Unit and the Santa Ynez Pipeline System, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The directive prioritizes restoring oil production and pipeline capacity so crude can move through the Las Flores Pipeline System to Pentland Station, a key inland facility that routes offshore crude to refineries and interstate pipeline networks. Energy security justification. Administration officials said the action is intended to reduce U.S. reliance on imported crude and ensure stable supply flows at a time when global oil markets remain volatile. The use of the Defense Production Act — a Cold War–era law that allows the federal government to direct private industry to prioritize projects deemed critical to national defense — underscores the administration’s concern about supply disruptions tied to geopolitical tensions and maritime risks affecting global oil shipments. Energy officials noted that restoring the Santa Ynez system would re-establish pipeline connectivity between offshore production platforms and mainland refining infrastructure, allowing crude that had previously been stranded offshore to reach U.S. markets. Strategic timing amid global energy uncertainty. The move comes as energy markets remain sensitive to disruptions in the Middle East — particularly shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz — which normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies. Those tensions have raised concerns about supply shortages and spikes in crude prices. By bringing idle California offshore infrastructure back online, the administration is aiming to expand domestic output capacity and provide an additional buffer against international supply shocks. Officials also said the order could accelerate production timelines by giving the Santa Ynez system priority access to equipment, services, and logistical support required to restart operations. Regulatory and political implications. Restarting the Santa Ynez operations may face scrutiny from environmental groups and California regulators, as offshore drilling along the state’s coast has long been politically contentious following past spills and environmental concerns. However, administration officials argue the Defense Production Act provides the legal authority to override certain commercial delays and compel companies to act in the interest of national energy security. The order marks one of the more aggressive uses of the law in the energy sector, signaling the administration’s willingness to intervene directly in oil production decisions as global markets remain unsettled.—U.S. and China launch new trade talks in Paris ahead of Trump/Xi SummitSenior officials focus on trade tensions, investment rules and rare-earth supply chains as groundwork for President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing later this month Senior officials from the U.S. and China began a fresh round of trade negotiations Sunday in Paris, aiming to stabilize economic relations and lay the groundwork for President Donald Trump’s expected summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month (March 31-April 2). The talks are being held at the headquarters of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and are led by Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang also participating. the delegations convened shortly after 10 a.m. local time. Focus on trade, investment and rare earths. The Paris meeting marks the sixth round of discussions between He and Bessent since the Trump administration launched a sweeping tariff campaign last year. Officials expect the talks to focus on resolving disputes over trade practices, expanding investment opportunities and addressing supply constraints in rare earth minerals — a strategic issue intensified by the ongoing war with Iran. Rare earths have become a particularly urgent topic for Washington. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese supplies of the minerals, which are essential for advanced military systems and electronics. Sources say U.S. inventories could run out within roughly two months if supplies remain constrained, making the issue a central agenda item for upcoming negotiations between Trump and Xi. Talks tied to upcoming Trump/Xi summit. The discussions are widely seen as preparation for Trump’s planned visit to Beijing, where both leaders are expected to seek deliverables that could stabilize trade relations between the world’s two largest economies. Possible areas of cooperation include structured joint ventures, licensing arrangements and investment models designed to limit intellectual property exposure while allowing cross-border business activity to resume in sensitive sectors. U.S. officials say the administration’s priority remains securing outcomes that benefit American industries. “Under the guidance of President Trump, our team will continue to deliver results that put America’s farmers, workers and businesses first,” Bessent said in a statement ahead of the talks. Persistent tensions remain. Despite the renewed dialogue, tensions between the two countries remain high. Just days before the Paris meeting, the Trump administration launched new investigations into alleged unfair trade practices by China and other economies under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 — a move that could lead to additional tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down earlier duties. Chinese officials criticized the investigations as politically motivated and warned that trade conflicts benefit neither side. State media commentary ahead of the meeting urged both countries to continue dialogue, arguing that long-standing structural differences in economic relations would take time to resolve. The negotiations come against a backdrop of rising geopolitical pressures — including the Iran war and technology competition — that continue to complicate efforts to reach a durable economic truce between Washington and Beijing. We have previously reported that when Trump goes to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping, farm commodities could be a big part of the agenda. The Trump trade team wants to boost Chinese commitments to purchase additional U.S. soybeans, but also other products including corn, sorghum, and other commodities. They also want China to certify U.S. beef plants for exports. —U.S. and Mexico launch review USMCA trade pactMexican officials worry President Trump could push sweeping revisions to USMCA during mandatory 2026 reviewThe United States and Mexico have formally launched the first review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — the North American trade pact negotiated during President Donald Trump’s first term — raising concerns in Mexico that Washington could seek major changes to the deal with Canada.The review, required every six years under the agreement’s “sunset” clause, will determine whether the pact is extended for another 16 years or subjected to renegotiation. Negotiators from the U.S. and Mexico have begun preliminary talks on strengthening the agreement’s rules and ensuring that its economic benefits primarily accrue to North American producers. According to the Financial Times, Mexico is particularly concerned that the Trump administration could pursue significant revisions to the agreement — including tighter restrictions on imports from outside North America and stricter rules governing supply chains — moves that could reshape trade flows across the continent. Mexico seeks to preserve trilateral structure. Mexican officials view maintaining the three-country framework with Canada as a top priority. Mexico’s economy depends heavily on U.S. trade — roughly 80% of its exports go to the U.S. — and the USMCA has been central to stabilizing regional supply chains since it replaced NAFTA in 2020. Mexico is also wary of proposals that could convert the agreement into bilateral deals or subject it to annual reviews, which officials believe would create uncertainty and discourage investment across North America. Key issues likely to dominate negotiations. Early discussions indicate several issues could become central in the review: •Stricter rules of origin: The U.S. is pushing for tighter standards so that more inputs must come from North America to qualify for tariff-free trade. •Restrictions on Chinese supply chains: Washington wants stronger safeguards preventing Chinese companies from using Mexico as a backdoor to the U.S. market. •Tariffs and industrial policy: Tensions remain over U.S. tariffs on Mexican vehicles and metals and broader efforts to reshore manufacturing. •Supply-chain security: Negotiators aim to deepen regional manufacturing networks to reduce dependence on imports from outside North America. Canada’s role still evolving. Canada has signaled it intends to coordinate closely with Mexico ahead of the negotiations, although a formal trilateral session with the United States has not yet been scheduled. Analysts expect the talks to be contentious, particularly given broader trade frictions between Washington and Ottawa. High-stakes decision ahead. The review could ultimately lead to three outcomes: 1) Renewal of USMCA for another 16 years,2) Renegotiation of specific provisions, or3) Continuation without renewal, triggering annual reviews until the agreement expires in 2036. For Mexico and Canada, preserving the stability of the North American trade framework is the priority. For the Trump administration, however, the review presents an opportunity to press for changes aimed at reshoring manufacturing and tightening supply chains within the region. |
| —CONGRESS |
—The House and Senate are in session this week.
—Nominations:
•Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on Wednesday will hold a hearing to consider the nomination of the Honorable Markwayne Mullin to serve as Secretary of Homeland Security.
• On Monday, the Senate Ag Committee will vote on the nomination of Glen Smith to be USDA undersecretary for rural development. The session will be held off the Senate floor.
—The U.S. ag sector seems to be always “waiting on” a policy announcement and at this juncture that includes several topics, including:
• Year-round E15. Biofuel lobbyists messed up earlier in trying to push this must-have initiative on a spending measure, despite House leadership telling them not to do so. Now year-round E15 legislation is stalled in Congress — not dead, but stuck in the legislative process and caught up in broader political fights. House Republicans created a special “Rural Domestic Energy Council” earlier this year to draft legislation allowing nationwide year-round sales of E15. That group was supposed to produce a bill by Feb. 15 and send it to the House floor by Feb. 25, but the deadlines passed without a proposal. The latest parlor game in Washington is how many times Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) has said he expects an E15 bill to be introduced. Feenstra, who is running for governor of Iowa, is co-chair of the congressional Energy council. His latest prediction: this week. Biofuel groups and corn organizations have since been pressing lawmakers to move quickly, warning the delay is hurting rural economies and ethanol demand.
The issue keeps getting dropped from must-pass bills. Several attempts to attach E15 to major legislation have failed:
• FY 2026 spending package: E15 language was stripped out before final passage.
• Farm Bill 2.0 markup: A Democratic amendment to include E15 was rejected because the House Ag Committee said it was outside its jurisdiction.
In other words, Congress keeps looking for a vehicle — but none has stuck yet. The latest possibility is to attach the measure to a coming Iran war supplemental spending measure.
Support for year-round E15 is broad: President Donald Trump has publicly backed it — remember his comments in Clive, Iowa?) Farm-state Republicans and Democrats support it. Some refiners and retailers have also signaled support.
But lawmakers still disagree on how to implement it, including:
• Clean Air Act changes needed to remove the summer E15 ban
• Fuel supply logistics and regional fuel standards
• Broader energy policy trade-offs tied to petroleum interests
These disagreements are why leaders kicked the issue to the special council instead of voting immediately.
Bottom Line: Year-round E15 still has strong political support, but Congress hasn’t found a legislative vehicle yet. The next likely window is a spring or early-summer energy or spending package, especially if high gasoline prices keep pressure on lawmakers.
• RFS announcements. EPA has never been an agency that announces key issues on time. This is especially the case with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). But EPA has signaled more than a few times they will issue details by the end of March.
Market chatter centers on a possible 2026 biomass-based diesel renewable volume obligation of 5.4 billion gallons. The bigger focus, though, was not just the headline number — it was how EPA might handle the reallocation of previously granted small refinery exemptions, which could materially raise the effective mandate borne by the rest of the market. Under the most widely circulated scenario, about 70% of prior exemptions would be reassigned to non-exempt refiners, pushing the effective 2026 obligation closer to 5.61 billion gallons. Some speculation went further, suggesting EPA could reallocate as much as 75%, which would raise compliance expectations even more. That possibility helped drive industry attention because even a modest change in reallocation policy can significantly affect obligated parties, Renewable Identification Number values, and demand expectations for biomass-based diesel feedstocks.
•Help on fertilizer prices and supply is “coming,” USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins teased late last week. Rollins is now know for signaling “big news” ahead, as the Trump administration moves toward fertilizer relief as a war-driven price surge hits U.S. farmers. The Trump administration is preparing measures aimed at easing fertilizer costs for U.S. farmers as the war with Iran and broader supply disruptions push global nutrient prices sharply higher. Rollins said Friday the White House is close to announcing steps intended to stabilize supply and reduce costs for producers heading into the 2026 planting season. “We are very close to having an announcement on some solutions,” Rollins told reporters. “We’re looking at every potential avenue to keep the fertilizer cost down.”
The administration’s effort comes as fertilizer markets face renewed volatility tied to energy markets, shipping disruptions, and heightened scrutiny in Washington over possible market manipulation.
Venezuela fertilizer channel under consideration. One of the first steps already underway involves easing access to fertilizer supplies from Venezuela. The U.S. Treasury Department announced measures Friday designed to facilitate purchases of Venezuelan fertilizer products, particularly urea.
Venezuela has the capacity to produce roughly 3 million metric tons of urea annually, along with slightly smaller volumes of ammonia — both key nitrogen inputs for global agriculture. However, the country has historically been a minor exporter, with aging infrastructure and limited operating capacity constraining production.
U.S. officials believe allowing greater commercial access to Venezuelan supplies could provide incremental relief to global nitrogen markets, which are closely tied to natural-gas prices and have surged amid the Middle East conflict.
Still, analysts caution that Venezuelan exports alone are unlikely to meaningfully shift global supply balances in the near term.
Shipping restrictions also under review. The White House is also evaluating a temporary relaxation of domestic shipping rules to reduce transportation costs for fertilizer and other commodities. The potential move could involve adjustments to the Jones Act, which requires goods transported between U.S. ports to be carried on U.S.-flagged vessels. Waivers have occasionally been used during emergencies to improve supply flows. Administration officials are examining whether similar flexibility could help move fertilizer more efficiently from import terminals and production facilities to inland farm regions. However, market analysts say the administration’s options are limited. (Link to Weekend Updates for more info on this topic.)
Congress is considering additional farm aid. Meanwhile, lawmakers are discussing additional assistance for farmers struggling with rising input costs. Senate Ag Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman John Hoeven (R-N.D.) are working on a potential farm support package (link) that could total $15 billion to $17 billion, though the final amount remains uncertain. Rollins confirmed she has been in discussions with lawmakers as Congress weighs further aid to producers facing higher fertilizer, fuel, and feed costs.
Of note: Washington is ramping up oversight of the fertilizer industry. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) recently sent letters to major fertilizer companies — as well as to Attorney General Pam Bondi — seeking assurances that firms are not using the Iran conflict as a pretext for price gouging. “If fertilizer companies are using this war as a pretext to raise prices beyond what market conditions justify, Congress will not ignore it,” Hawley wrote. The scrutiny comes as the Justice Department is reportedly examining the U.S. fertilizer sector for potential price-fixing concerns, according to a March 4 report by Bloomberg News.
Separately, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), joined by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), is pushing legislation that would require USDA to conduct a comprehensive study of fertilizer market competition and its impact on farm-level prices. Grassley wants the proposal incorporated into the upcoming farm bill debate.
Structural challenges remain. Despite the administration’s efforts, industry analysts say fertilizer markets are driven largely by global energy and supply dynamics.
Cross currents: Nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and ammonia are heavily dependent on natural-gas inputs, while potash and phosphate markets rely on concentrated global production in countries including Canada, Russia, and Morocco. Geopolitical disruptions — particularly those affecting energy supplies or shipping routes — can quickly ripple through global agricultural input markets.
For U.S. farmers already facing volatile commodity prices and tight margins, the fertilizer surge adds another layer of financial pressure heading into the 2026 growing season.
The key answer to the fertilizer dilemma is supply. And it appears more production is on its way, but not likely until the 2027-crop growing season. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden told us in a recent interview (link) that BHP, an Australian-based firm, is investing $15 billion in Canada to boost fertilizer production. Other companies he said are also interested in ramping up fertilizer production.
Meanwhile, odds are rising that current duties on Moroccan fertilizer will expire in late summer or early fall when a current review of such duties is concluded. Vaden told us: “The review timeline is actually set by statute and it’s pretty strict. Parties have between now and early April, and it’s open to the public to file comments expressing their views on the current state of the fertilizer market in the United States. Part of the question that the International Trade Commission (ITC) will be charged with determining is, is five years later, are American domestic fertilizer producers being harmed by unfair foreign competition? And I can already hear the farmers who are watching this laughing at the thought of anyone asking that question, given the prices they’re being asked to pay for fertilizer. By late the summer or early fall, the International Trade Commission is going to be required to issue a decision on whether or not this order should continue. But before next growing season, we will definitely have an answer as to whether or not this order is going to continue.”
Another key Vaden observation: Vaden also noted he had “heard from Nutrien. I’ve actually talked to the CEO of that company a couple of times. I was gratified by their announcement regarding their believing that we don’t need a countervailing duty order to let the current countervailing duty order expire. I welcome that announcement. I think most American farmers welcome that announcement. I hope Mosaic will come out and say the same thing, because if a company the size of Nutrien that has the experience in this market believes that there is no need for this order, and I want to say I think that that’s a proper way of looking at it. Why would Mosaic need the order? In particular, since they, through their non-investment in new sources of fertilizer, have stirred up new competition for themselves because they’ve set on their hands when the market price has clearly been demanding more supply.”
—Early cost of Iran war tops $11 billion for U.S.
Pentagon expected to seek tens of billions in supplemental funding as daily conflict expenses run as high as $2 billion
The first 100 hours of the war with Iran cost the United States roughly $3.7 billion, driven largely using munitions and operational expenses, according to estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Military analysts say the daily cost of the conflict is running between $1 billion and $2 billion, reflecting the high expense of air operations, precision weapons, naval deployments, and logistics across the region. The Pentagon has already indicated that total U.S. war spending has exceeded $11 billion since the conflict began.
While officials expect the daily burn rate to decline as the campaign evolves, the financial burden remains significant. The Trump administration is expected to request a supplemental appropriations package from Congress, potentially worth tens of billions of dollars, to finance the continuing military operations and replenish weapons stockpiles.
—Senate deadlock extends homeland security shutdown
Immigration enforcement dispute blocks funding bill as airport disruptions worsen
The Senate again failed to advance legislation to fund the Department of Homeland Security, leaving the partial government shutdown approaching the one-month mark after the measure fell well short of the 60 votes required to move forward.
The stalemate reflects deep divisions between Democrats and Republicans over immigration-enforcement policies and funding levels for several key agencies, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection. Lawmakers remain at odds over detention capacity, deportation authority, and broader border-security priorities — issues that have stalled negotiations for weeks.
The shutdown is increasingly affecting frontline operations, particularly at U.S. airports. Transportation Security Administration officers have been working without pay since the lapse in funding began, and officials say absenteeism among screening personnel has roughly doubled as financial pressures mount.
With no immediate breakthrough in sight, Senate leaders face growing pressure from airlines, airport authorities, and national-security officials to reach a compromise and restore funding before disruptions spread further across the country’s transportation system.
| —KEY EVENTS |
Mon., March 16
• Nomination vote: USDA. Senate Ag Committee markup to vote on the nomination of Glen Smith to be USDA undersecretary for rural development. The session will be held off the Senate floor.
•Cities meeting. National League of Cities 2026 Congressional City Conference. Runs through Wednesday.
•Chinese political prisoners. Hudson Institute discussion on “Prioritizing Political Prisoner Advocacy Across China.”
Tue., March 17
•Budget hearing: U.S. House of Representatives. House Appropriations Legislative Branch Subcommittee ee hearing on “Budget Hearing — U.S. House of Representatives.”
•U.S. trade interests and the WTO. House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee hearing on “Advancing America’s Interests at the World Trade Organization’s 14th Ministerial Conference.”
• WTO and MC14. Washington International Trade Association virtual discussion on “WTO (World Trade Organization) Matters: MC-14 and What Comes Next.”
•CBO budget outlook. House Budget Committee hearing on “The Congressional Budget Office’s Budget and Economic Outlook.” CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies.
•Inflation and the Middle East war. Council on Foreign Relations (virtual discussion on “Oil, Energy, and Inflation: The Geoeconomic Ripple Effects of the Iran War.”
•Transportation and infrastructure. U.S. Chamber of summit on “Keep America Moving: Transportation, Infrastructure, and America’s Future.”
•Electric grid. Atlantic Council forum on “Transmission 2026: Durable infrastructure and regulations for a new digital age.”
• Financial privacy. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “Updating America’s Financial Privacy Framework for the 21st Century.”
•Maritime shipping. House Judiciary Administrative State, Regulatory Reform, and Antitrust Subcommittee hearing on “Pier Pressure: Regulation and Competition in Maritime Shipping.”
•National security issues. House Armed Services Committee hearing on “U.S. Military Posture and National Security Challenges in North and South America.”
•Secure U.S. technology base. House Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee hearing on “DeepSeek and Unitree Robotics: Examining the National Security Risks of PRC Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, and Autonomous Technologies and Building a Secure US Technology Base.”
•Global radiocommunication issues. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Telecommunications and Media Subcommittee hearing on “U.S. Leadership at the World Radiocommunication Conference 2027: Strategy and Challenges Ahead of Shanghai.”
•Winter storms and US electricity. House Energy and Commerce Energy Subcommittee hearing on “Winter Storm Fern Lessons: Supplying Reliable Power to Meet Peak Demand.”
•Critical mineral supply chains. House Natural Resources Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing on “Unleashing America’s Mineral Potential: The Critical Mineral Commodity Supply Chain.”
•China theft of US innovation. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “Stealth Stealing: China’s Ongoing Theft of U.S. Innovation.”
•NIH oversight. House Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight Hearing – National Institutes of Health.”
•Middle East war. Middle East Institute virtual discussion on “War with Iran: A View from Israel.”
•Middle East war assessment. Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion on “the rapidly evolving conflict involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, and the and its implications for the Middle East, including the diplomatic and security challenges facing Gulf states.”
•House Appropriations subcommittee member day. House Appropriations Legislative Branch Subcommittee hearing on “Member Day.”
•Supreme Court Chief Justice Roberts discussion. Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy discussion with Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, focusing on “his experience as Chief Justice, the state of the American judicial branch and some of the most significant moments of his tenure.”
•Global threats. House Select Intelligence Committee hearing on “Annual Worldwide Threats Assessment Hearing.”
•Foreign assistance. House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Intelligence Subcommittee hearing on “Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Foreign Assistance: Lessons Learned and Charting a Path Forward.”
•Medicaid/Medicare fraud. House Energy and Commerce Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing on “Protecting Patients and Safeguarding Taxpayer Dollars: The Role of CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services) Combatting Medicare and Medicaid Fraud.”
•US Postal Service oversight. House Oversight and Government Reform Government Operations Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of the US Postal Service: The Financial Future Under Postmaster General Steiner.”
•The next pandemic. Georgetown University’s Center for Global health Policy and Politics discussion on “What Happens When the Next Pandemic Hits?”
Wednesday,March 18
• Nomination hearing: DHS Secretary. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on the nomination of Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) to be Homeland Security secretary.
•Budget hearing: GAO, CBO. House Appropriations Legislative Branch Subcommittee hearing on “Budget Hearing – Government Accountability Office and Congressional Budget Office.” Acting U.S. Comptroller General Orice Williams Brown and CBO Director Phillip Swagel testify.
•Competition from China. House (Select) Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee hearing on “From the Science Lab to the Medicine Cabinet: How China is Cornering the Market on Our Medicines.”
• Ex-Im Bank oversight. House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of the Export-Import Bank.” Ex-Im President and Chairman John Jovanovic testifies.
•6G outlook. Politico hosts its “Policy Outlook: Powering 6G” event.
• SBA and rural affairs. House Small Business Committee hearing on “Connecting SBA to Main Street: Examining the SBA Offices of Field Operations and Rural Affairs.”
• Worldwide threats. Senate Select Intelligence Committee hearing on “Worldwide Threats.”
• National security and Europe. House Armed Services Committee hearing on “U.S. Military Posture and National Security Challenges in Europe.”
•Immigration. House Judiciary Constitution and Limited Government Subcommittee hearing on “Immigration Policy by Court Order: The Adverse Effects of Plyler v. Doe.”
•Endangered Species Act. Senate Environment and Public Works Fisheries, Wildlife, and Water Subcommittee hearing on “Challenges and Opportunities with Implementing the Endangered Species Act.”
•Health care costs. Health Subcommittee of House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing on “Lowering Health Care Costs for All Americans: An Examination of the U.S. Provider Landscape.”
•Monetary policy resilience. House Financial Services Task Force on Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity Subcommittee hearing on “Revisiting the Treasury-Fed Accord.”
• Communications technology leadership. House Energy and Commerce Communications and Technology Subcommittee hearing on “Securing U.S. Leadership of Communications Technology.”
•Secret government spending. Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee hearing on “Sunshine Week: Bringing Secret Government Spending to Light.”
•Economic competitiveness. Joint Economic Committee hearing on “Keeping Our Promises: Labor Inflows, Maintaining Competitiveness, and Supporting an Aging Population.”
Thur.,March 19
• Sustainable food pricing policies. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on “Price(less) Behaviors: Behavioral Implications and Unexpected Consequences of Food and Sustainability Pricing Policies.”
• Nomination vote: DHS Secretary. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee markup to vote on the nomination of Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) to be Homeland Security secretary.
• Middle East war and impacts on natural gas, fertilizer just ahead of planting season. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft holds a virtual discussion on “How Badly Could the War Against Iran Hurt the Global South?” focusing on “the interruption of oil and natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a dramatic spike in energy prices, and an even more alarming threat to the world’s supply of fertilizer just ahead of planting season.”
• Middle East war impacts. Arab Center Washington DC virtual discussion on “Unpacking the War on Iran: Political Implications and Global Repercussions.”
• China issues. U.S./China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on “China’s Expanding Interests in Latin America: Development, Leverage, Coercion, and Crime.”
• Labor and workforce issues. Government Executive Media Group’s ATARC Public Sector Workforce Modernization Summit, including a discussion on “Building the Workforce Needed for Mission Execution.”
•Nuclear energy issues. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on “The Energy Department’s Implementation of President Trump’s May 2025 Nuclear Energy Executive Orders.
• Senate HELP panel member day. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on “Member Day.”
•Bank capital requirements. Federal Reserve Board meeting “to discuss proposals to revise its capital requirements for the largest, most internationally active banks and its requirements for other large banks, as well as to make adjustments to the surcharge for U.S. global systematically important banks.”
Friday, March 20
• Global gas infrastructure. U.S. Trade and Development Agency USTDA Gas Initiative Launch, with a discussion on “Building Global Gas Infrastructure.”
• UN accountability and reform. House Appropriations National Security, Department of State, and Related Programs Subcommittee field hearing on “Accountability and Reform at the United Nations.” Michael Waltz, U.S. representative to the UN, testifies.
| —ECONOMIC REPORTS |
— The key report this week is January New Home sales. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.
Wednesday: 2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.
2:00 PM: FOMC Projections. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants’ projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
Mon., March 16
• Empire State Manufacturing | Industrial Production | Housing Market Index
Tue., March 17
• Housing Starts | Pending Home Sales Index | Existing Home Sales | Earnings: Saudi Aramco.
Wed.,March 18
• PPI-FD | Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations | Factory Orders | FOMC meeting conclusion | FOMC projections | FOMC Chair press conference | Earnings: Ecopetrol.
Thur.,March 19
•Jobless Claims | New Home Sales | Business Inventories
| —AG REPORTS |
—The International Grains Council will release its monthly figures on Thursday. China’s second batch of trade data for February, including grains and sugar imports, and the results of New Zealand’s global dairy trade auction will also be published during the week.
•AMS. Export Inspections ERS: Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook | Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook NASS: Hop Stocks
Tue., March 17
•ERS: Vegetables and Pulses Data | Fruit & Tree Nut Data | EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Wed.,March 18
USDA reports. NASS: Broiler Hatchery | China’s 2nd batch of monthly trade data, including grains, sugar, cotton, palm oil, pork & beef imports
Thur.,March 19
• USDA reports. FAS: Export Sales NASS: Slaughter Weekly | Livestock Slaughter | IGC monthly report
Fri., March 20
• NASS: Cattle on Feed | Milk Production | Peanut Prices | China’s 3rd batch of monthly trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities | FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions data
| —ENERGY REPORTS |
—The primary focus will be on the War with Iran and its impacts on fuel and input prices.
Mon., March 16
•EU energy ministers meeting in Brussels to discuss affordability, competitiveness | Angola preliminary crude export programs (May) | Piper Sandler Annual Energy Conference; runs through Wednesday | Holidays: Iraq; Mexico.
Tue., March 17
•API US inventory report | EU climate ministers meet to discuss environment issues including post-2030 framework, Brussels | WTI April options expire | Holidays: Saudi Arabia.
Wed.,March 18
•EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | Future of Utilities Energy Transition Summit, Amsterdam; runs through Thursday | Holidays: Indonesia; Saudi Arabia.
Thur.,March 19
•EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | BNEF Summit Beijing | Bharat Electricity Summit, New Delhi; runs through Sunday | WTI CSOs for Apil expire | Holidays: Indonesia; India; Venezuela.
Fri., March 20
• ICE weekly Commitments of Tradersreport for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | Baker-Hughes Rig Count | WTI April futures expire | Holidays: Indonesia; Japan; Azerbaijan.
