Trump Calls for De-escalation as Brent Oil Surges

White House rolls out “pro-farmer” agenda ahead of National Agriculture Day | Urea surge — not a broad fertilizer spike — drives spring market risk

LINKS

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 15 

Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 15

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 19, 2026

UP FRONT

Top Stories

— White House farm agenda: The Trump administration is previewing a broad “pro-farmer” push ahead of National Agriculture Day, centered on input costs, exports, tax relief, and safety-net priorities, with a major White House agriculture event set for March 27.

— Iran war updates: Defense officials are briefing Thursday morning, while the Senate again rejected an effort to limit Trump’s war powers in Iran.

— Munitions constraints: U.S. weapons stockpiles are under strain, which could limit how long or how intensely Washington can sustain operations against Iran, even if it does not force an immediate stop.

— Energy shock deepens: Oil, gas, and shipping markets remain highly volatile after attacks on energy infrastructure in Iran, Qatar, and the Gulf raised fears of a wider supply disruption.

— Recession threshold: Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal say a recession is unlikely unless oil rises to about $138 a barrel and stays there.

— Shipping risk grows: Vessel attacks near Qatar and continued Strait of Hormuz disruption are adding to global trade and energy supply concerns.

— Trump signals partial restraint: Trump sought to cool tensions by saying Israel acted alone in striking South Pars, while still warning Iran against further attacks on U.S. allies.

— Iran retaliation threat: Tehran says it could target more Gulf oil and gas infrastructure after damage to South Pars.

— South Pars impact: Analysts expect limited global gas supply fallout because most Iranian gas is consumed domestically, though the strike is symbolically significant.

— Alternative oil routes: Iraq and Erbil are moving to resume exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, offering one route around Hormuz pressure.

— Houthi threat: Analysts warn the Houthis may widen the conflict by targeting Red Sea commercial shipping.

— U.S. strikes near Hormuz: Central Command says it hit Iranian missile sites along the coastline.

— Iran’s post-war shipping proposal: Tehran is floating a regional framework for governing Hormuz transit after the war, contrasting with U.S.-backed multinational patrol ideas.

— Israeli strike on Iranian intelligence: Israel says it killed Iran’s intelligence chief Esmail Khatib.

— Russia-Iran intelligence claim: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said Russia is helping Iran target U.S. assets.

— Trump weighs nuclear mission: Trump is considering a major operation aimed at Iran’s near-bomb-grade nuclear material.

— Jet fuel surge: Jet fuel prices have jumped about 60% this month, raising airline costs and pressuring fares.

— Airfares rising: Some airlines are already increasing ticket prices and warning elevated costs may persist.

— Shutdown strains TSA: Long airport lines are worsening as the partial government shutdown disrupts TSA staffing and operations.

— Jones Act waiver: Trump issued a 60-day waiver to ease domestic transport of fuel and fertilizer, though the price impact is expected to be limited.

— War funding request: The Pentagon has reportedly asked the White House to seek more than $200 billion from Congress for the Iran war.

— U.S. debt milestone: Gross national debt has reached $39 trillion, while debt held by the public stands above $31 trillion.

— USMCA review talks: U.S. and Mexican officials launched technical discussions ahead of the July 1 USMCA review, focusing on supply chains, production, and rules of origin.

— USPS cash warning: Postmaster General David Steiner said USPS could run out of money within a year, prompting consideration of service cuts, price hikes, and post office closures.

— Thursday calendar: Key events include jobless claims, a House intelligence hearing, a Mullin nomination vote, House floor votes, and a Senate Judiciary markup.
 

Financial Markets

— War markets today: Global stocks fell and bonds sold off as the Middle East conflict drove oil and gas sharply higher, intensifying inflation and growth concerns.

— Equities yesterday: Wall Street dropped broadly Wednesday as inflation worries and Iran-related risks weighed on sentiment.

— Fed decision: The Federal Reserve held rates steady, raised its growth and inflation outlooks, and signaled only limited future easing as war and energy risks cloud the outlook.

— Powell’s future: Jerome Powell suggested he may remain at the Fed through the DOJ renovation probe and potentially stay on the Board after his chair term ends, emphasizing continuity.
 

Fertilizer

— Urea is the main story: Fertilizer volatility is concentrated in urea, not across all nutrients, because U.S. supply is heavily exposed to Middle East trade routes.

— Most fertilizer already booked: Many farmers locked in fertilizer needs earlier, so the main risk now is local availability and logistics rather than fresh pricing.

— CF rally may be stretched: Mizuho says CF Industries has benefited from the nitrogen spike, but the stock may already reflect most of the upside if higher prices prove temporary.

— Jones Act waiver analysis: The shipping waiver may modestly improve fuel and fertilizer logistics, especially during planting, but is unlikely to materially lower prices.

— India fertilizer scramble: India is seeking fertilizer supplies from Russia, Belarus, Morocco, and possibly Indonesia as war disruptions and export curbs tighten the market.
 

Ag Markets

— S&P Global Energy acreage outlook: S&P Global Energy sees 2026 corn acreage below last year and soybean acreage above last year, reinforcing a shift away from corn.

— Allendale acreage survey: Allendale also shows farmers cutting corn acres and expanding soybeans, while remaining cautious about forward sales of new-crop grain.

— Markets yesterday: Corn, soybeans, meal, and wheat were mostly higher Wednesday, while soybean oil, cotton, and feeder cattle weakened.

Farm Policy

— Conservation coalition launches: A new farmer-led group across 15 states is advocating for stronger federal support for voluntary conservation programs.

— Farm Bill 2.0 timing: Congress faces a tight window to pass a new farm bill before the current extension expires, with debate focused on broader titles beyond the safety net.

Poultry

— USDA delays rule: USDA pushed back implementation of its poultry grower transparency rule to late 2027, drawing criticism from Farm Bureau and contract growers.

Energy Markets & Policy

— Thursday oil spike: Oil surged again after attacks on energy infrastructure deepened fears of real supply disruption and inflation pressure.

— Wednesday oil rally: Crude also climbed sharply Wednesday as strikes on key Gulf energy assets and Hormuz disruption raised the risk of a prolonged supply shock.

— Canada ethanol pressure: Canadian ethanol producers say rising U.S. imports are squeezing domestic output and are pushing for policy changes to improve competitiveness.

Trade Policy

— EU/U.S. trade deal advances: The European Parliament’s trade committee moved the U.S. trade deal closer to a final vote, though tariff uncertainty remains a major issue.

— IEEPA refund case narrows: A judge refused to broaden participation in the lead tariff refund case, leaving Atmus Filtration as the sole active plaintiff despite broader importer concerns.

Congress

— Mullin hearing: Senators from both parties pressed DHS nominee Markwayne Mullin on temperament, qualifications, and past remarks, though he is still expected to advance.

— Shutdown pay bill: A House panel advanced a bill to dock lawmakers’ pay during shutdowns, but constitutional questions remain.

Weather

— NWS outlook: A record-breaking heat wave is spreading across the West into the Plains, while wet and wintry weather affects northern regions and fire danger remains elevated in the High Plains.

TOP STORIES—White House rolls out “pro-farmer” agenda ahead of National Agriculture DayAdministration highlights trade, tax relief, and farm policy priorities as Trump prepares major White House event with industry leaders The Trump administration is previewing a sweeping “pro-farmer” policy agenda ahead of National Agriculture Day, framing it as a cornerstone of President Donald Trump’s broader economic and rural strategy, according to comments from White House spokesperson Anna Kelly reported by Washington Reporter’s Matthew Foldi. At the center of the agenda are efforts aimed at improving farm profitability and rural economic conditions. The White House emphasized policies focused on lowering input costs, expanding export markets, strengthening the farm safety net, and delivering tax relief — including proposals to double the estate tax exemption, eliminate taxes on rural property loan interest, and establish rural opportunity zones. Administration officials are positioning the initiative as a contrast to prior policies under former President Joe Biden, arguing that Trump’s approach prioritizes inflation control and stronger trade enforcement to benefit U.S. producers. The policy push will culminate in a large-scale White House event scheduled for March 27, where nearly 1,000 farmers are expected to join President Trump, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, and executives from major agricultural equipment and supply companies including John Deere, Tractor Supply Co., and CNH Industrial. The event is designed to showcase administration support across the agricultural sector and reinforce political backing from rural constituencies. Notably, officials pushed back on reports that the event would center on biofuels policy. A White House official dismissed claims that the gathering would focus on the Environmental Protection Agency’s pending biofuels mandate decision, stating instead that the event will broadly highlight the administration’s agricultural policy achievements rather than any single regulatory issue. —Updates on war with Iran•Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Air Force Gen. Dan Caine are set to hold a press briefing about the Iran conflict at 8 a.m. ET. •The Senate on Wednesday night rejected a war powers resolution aimed at limiting U.S. military action against Iran, voting 47–53 and marking the second time lawmakers have declined to rein in President Donald Trump’s ongoing Middle East campaign. Only one Republican — Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) — supported the measure, which was introduced by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.). Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) broke with most Democrats to join Republicans in opposing the resolution. Democratic lawmakers said they will continue to push for additional war powers votes related to Iran.—U.S. munitions constraints may shape — not halt — Iran operations. Warnings that U.S. munitions shortages could quickly curb operations against Iran are grounded in real constraints — but likely overstate the immediacy, sources advise. Seth G. Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said limited stockpiles of precision weapons and interceptors could shorten the current phase of U.S. involvement, arguing operations may only last “days or weeks.” U.S. inventories are indeed under pressure from Ukraine support, Red Sea operations, and Indo-Pacific demands, while production of advanced munitions takes months to years to scale. However, the U.S. retains war reserves and flexibility to adjust targeting and tempo. In practice, constraints are more likely to limit the intensity and duration of strikes rather than force an abrupt halt. The bottom line: the U.S. can sustain near-term operations, but not prolonged, high-intensity conflict without tradeoffs — and rebuilding stockpiles will take years. •Brent crude jumped over 10% to above $119 a barrel on Thursday, taking its gain since the conflict began to 63% (Brent is current trading at around $114 a barrel). European gas futures rose as much as 35% to more than double their pre-war level. The moves came after Israel struck Iran’s gas field. The attack on South Pars gas field marked the first attack on Iran’s oil and gas facilities during this conflict. After threatening retaliation, Iran attacked a major energy hub in Qatar and caused extensive damage. Saudi Arabia also said it intercepted four missiles. Brent crude futures settled Wednesday at $107.38 a barrel, up 3.8%. • Economists surveyed this week by the Wall Street Journal don’t see a recession unless oil hits $138 — and stays there for weeks. •European natural gas futures soared about 25% to above €68 (around $78) per MWh on Thursday, reaching their highest levels in over three years after Iran launched attacks on key energy infrastructure across the Middle East, intensifying supply concerns. • Shipping is also in danger. A British maritime monitoring agency said today that a vessel had been hit by a projectile near the Ras Laffan energy hub in Qatar. It was the second attack on a vessel overnight in the region. • President Donald Trump signaled a partial de-escalation, saying Israel acted alone in striking Iran’s South Pars gas field and would not repeat the attack — a message aimed at easing rising domestic backlash over the war’s economic impact. However, Trump warned the U.S. would retaliate if Iran continues targeting U.S. allies, underscoring the fragile balance between restraint and escalation. Markets remain on edge as attacks on key energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz raise the risk of a prolonged supply shock. Analysts warn oil prices could climb above $150 per barrel if tensions escalate further. • Iran warned Wednesday it would retaliate by targeting oil and gas infrastructure across the Persian Gulf following an attack on its South Pars gas field earlier in the day. South Pars, part of the world’s largest natural gas reserve shared by Iran and Qatar (where it is known as the North Dome), sustained damage to multiple facilities, according to Iran’s oil ministry, though the full extent remains unclear. • Experts suspect that the South Pars attack will have a limited effect on the global supply of gas, since Iran uses most of its reserves domestically; South Pars makes up as much as 75 % of the country’s natural gas production. • Not all oil from the Middle East has to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which has become the war’s main focus due to its crucial status as a crude shipping corridor. Baghdad and Kurdish city Erbil have agreed to export Iraqi oil through the Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. •The Houthi movement, which represents the northern tribal confederations of Yemen, looks increasingly likely to take action and is “in a position in which they can exercise considerable leverage and inject further economic costs on the U.S., Israel, and their allies,” Dragonfly analysts said in a research note on Wednesday, noting that the Houthis would likely focus on attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea. • U.S. Central Command said late Tuesday that it had dropped multiple 5,000-pound bombs on missile sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz.•Iran floats post-war Strait of Hormuz rules framework. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran wants a new regional mechanism to govern transit through the Strait of Hormuz after the war, with clear rules to ensure safe shipping and prevent future closures. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Araghchi said bordering states should negotiate a protocol that reflects regional interests and guarantees stability, though he did not outline specifics. Araghchi indicated Iran would restrict access to adversaries during wartime while facilitating transit for others, and said Tehran is seeking a permanent end to hostilities. The proposal contrasts with efforts by Donald Trump to organize multinational patrols, highlighting competing visions for securing the critical waterway. •Israel said on Wednesday that it had killed Iran’s intelligence chief Esmail Khatib in an overnight strike.•Russia’s providing Iran with intelligence to take out us targets says Rep. McCaul. Rep. Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican, said he disagrees with the administration’s move to lift some sanctions on Russian oil because Moscow is an adversary that is aiding Iran in targeting U.S. assets. Rep. McCaul joined to discuss on Bloomberg’s Balance of Power. • Trump is debating whether to order the biggest Iran mission of all: to seize or destroy the country’s near-bomb-grade nuclear material. It’s believed to be stored under a mountain. •Jet fuel prices are up about 60% this month, largely because the war is disrupting key refining infrastructure. The global aviation industry still burns around 100 billion gallons of standard jet fuel annually. •Some airlines are already raising fares — and warning that high prices could stick around. •Airport security lines have grown comically long amid a partial government shutdown affecting the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees the TSA. Acting deputy TSA administrator Adam Stahl told CBS News that some airports could even be shut down as screeners go without pay and call out sick: “This is a serious situation.” • President Trump waived the Jones Act for a 60-day period to curb rising fuel prices. This will allow foreign ships to transport fuel and fertilizer between U.S. ports. The Jones Act requires ships moving between U.S. ports to be U.S.-owned and crewed. It has previously been waived during natural disasters. (See related item below for details and analysis.) •The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve a more than $200 billion request to Congress to fund the war in Iran, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing a senior administration official, in an enormous new ask that is almost certain to run into resistance from lawmakers opposed to the conflict.  —The gross national debt of the United States reached $39 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury. The gross debt reached its previous milestone of $38 trillion in October of last year. Meanwhile, debt held by the public – the measure of debt preferred by economists – stands at over $31 trillion. —U.S., Mexico advance USMCA review talksTechnical teams tasked with supply chain reforms, production growth ahead of July deadline U.S. and Mexican officials formally launched technical discussions Wednesday to prepare for the first review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), outlining next steps focused on boosting regional production and tightening supply chains. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard met in Washington, directing their teams to evaluate policy options aimed at increasing North American manufacturing employment while limiting non-market inputs in supply chains. Negotiators also identified gaps in critical regional supply chains and explored potential fixes — including stronger rules of origin, enhanced economic security coordination, and complementary trade measures. Both sides agreed to establish a regular cadence of technical meetings to develop concrete deliverables ahead of the July 1 joint review deadline. Mexico signaled its priorities heading into the talks, with Ebrard emphasizing the country will push for making USMCA permanent and eliminating tariffs. Meanwhile, Greer noted that parallel U.S./Canada discussions are ongoing but lagging behind progress with Mexico. —USPS faces financial cliff as losses mountPostmaster General warns agency could run out of cash within a year, weighing service cuts and price hikes U.S. Postmaster General David Steiner warned that the U.S. Postal Service could run out of money within the next year after posting $18.5 billion in net losses over the past two years, driven largely by a continued decline in first-class mail. To stabilize finances, USPS is considering a range of cost-saving and revenue measures, including raising stamp prices, reducing delivery days, and closing post offices. The agency currently serves nearly 169 million addresses nationwide. Advocates caution that any service reductions would disproportionately impact rural communities, where residents rely more heavily on consistent mail delivery for essential goods, services, and communications.— Thursday’s Calendar of Key EventsTime (ET) Event8:30 a.m.Bureau of Labor Statistics releases weekly initial jobless-claims report.8:30 a.m.House Intelligence Committee hearing on global threat assessments with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and other administration officials.9:30 a.m.Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee votes on the nomination of Sen. Markwayne Mullin to be Homeland Security secretary.10:00 a.m.House floor votes on measure authorizing deportation of immigrants convicted of harming animals used by law enforcement.10:15 a.m.Senate Judiciary Committee marks up legislation on illicit drugs and crime reporting, and votes on Justice Department nominations.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—War markets today: Global equities extended their slide as another surge in oil and natural gas prices intensified fears that the Middle East conflict will fuel inflation and weigh on economic growth. Bonds also sold off for a second straight session as major central banks continued meeting. European stocks dropped about 2%, on track for their lowest level of the year, while a broad Asian index fell 2.8%. U.S. equity futures were little changed after the S&P 500 erased its weekly gains in the prior session.Intensifying hostilities in the Middle East is fanning inflation worries that have prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious stance on interest ‌rate cuts this year. Brent crude prices spiked by $119 a barrel after Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East in retaliation to Israel’s strike on its South Pars gas field. The U.S. benchmark, however, ⁠was trading at its widest discount to Brent in 11 years due to releases from U.S. strategic reserves and higher freight costs.

In Asia, Japan -3.4%. Hong Kong -2%. China -1.4%. India -3.3%.
 

In Europe, at midday, London -1.9%. Paris -1.6%. Frankfurt -2.4%.

—Equities yesterday: Wall Street sold off as concerns about inflation remained elevated and Iran hostilities continued after a two-day Federal Reserve meeting.

Equity Index	Closing Price  March 18	Point Difference  from March 17	% Difference  from March 17
Dow	46,225.15	-768.11	-1.63%
Nasdaq	22,152.42	-327.11	-1.46%
S&P 500	6,624.70	-91.39	-1.36%

—Fed holds rates steady as Middle East war clouds outlook

Policymakers lift growth and inflation forecasts, signal limited easing path amid rising uncertainty

The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, underscoring a cautious stance as officials grapple with mounting uncertainty tied to the Middle East war and its potential economic fallout. The decision was nearly unanimous, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran the lone dissenter, continuing to push for a quarter-point rate cut.

Statement shifts highlight labor and geopolitical risks. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made only modest changes to its post-meeting statement but notably adjusted its assessment of the labor market and introduced the Middle East conflict as a new risk factor. Officials now describe unemployment as “little changed,” while maintaining that job gains remain subdued and inflation is still “somewhat elevated.”

For the first time, the Fed explicitly flagged geopolitical risk, stating that the economic implications of the Middle East war are “uncertain,” reinforcing its broader view that overall uncertainty remains elevated.

Stronger growth, higher inflation outlook. Updated projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) point to a slightly stronger economy—but with more persistent inflation pressures.

•GDP: Raised to 2.4% for 2026 (from 2.3%) and 2.3% for 2027 (from 2.0%)

• Unemployment: Steady at 4.4%

• PCE inflation: Increased to 2.7% for 2026 (from 2.4%)

• Core PCE: Also revised up to 2.7% (from 2.5%)

Despite firmer growth expectations, the Fed continues to project a gradual easing path, with one rate cut expected in 2026 and another in 2027. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tone during his press conference this afternoon made even that forecast sound dubious. “There is also just the feeling that we haven’t seen the progress that we hoped for on core goods,” Powell said. The “dot plot” reflects wide dispersion among policymakers, highlighting uncertainty around the appropriate policy trajectory.

Powell: Energy shock adds complexity, not clarity. Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the economic impact of the Middle East war remains highly uncertain, particularly through energy markets. He warned that higher fuel prices could temporarily push inflation higher while potentially dampening consumer spending.

A caveat: Powell reiterated that while central banks typically “look through” energy shocks, doing so depends on inflation expectations remaining anchored—something he suggested cannot be taken for granted in the current environment.

He also highlighted that tariffs remain a significant contributor to inflation, accounting for a large share of current core price pressures, though he expects those effects to fade over time.

Labor market shows fragile balance. While headline unemployment remains stable, Powell acknowledged underlying weakness, noting that adjusted data suggests little to no net private-sector job growth in recent months. Temporary factors such as strikes and weather distorted recent reports, but the broader trend points to a labor market that may be softer than it appears.

No stagflation — yet. Addressing concerns about stagflation, Powell dismissed comparisons to the 1970s, arguing that current conditions — moderate inflation and near-normal unemployment — do not meet that threshold. However, he acknowledged growing tension between the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

Markets react to uncertainty. Financial markets responded negatively to the Fed’s tone, with equities plunging, the dollar strengthening, and Treasury yields moving higher. Notably, expectations for near-term rate cuts shifted, with markets now pushing anticipated easing into 2027.

Bottom Line: The Fed remains in a holding pattern — facing firmer inflation, a murky labor outlook, and rising geopolitical risks. While policymakers still anticipate eventual rate cuts, Powell made clear that future decisions will hinge on incoming data, not forecasts, as the central bank navigates an increasingly uncertain economic landscape shaped in part by global conflict.

—Powell signals post-chair role while vowing to stay through DOJ probe

Fed chair aims to remain on Board after 2026 while tying current tenure to resolution of renovation investigation

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated he plans to remain at the central bank both in the near term — through an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation — and beyond his tenure as chair, signaling a focus on continuity during a period of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Powell said he will continue leading the U.S. central bank as “chair pro tem” if a successor is not confirmed by the Senate in mid-May.

Powell said he intends to stay on as Fed chair until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into recent Federal Reserve renovation projects, a probe that has drawn scrutiny over potential cost overruns and governance practices. By linking his tenure to the resolution of the inquiry, Powell is underscoring his commitment to overseeing the issue directly and maintaining institutional accountability.

Looking further ahead, Powell has also indicated that after his chairmanship ends in May 2026, he expects to remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, serving out his term as a governor through 2028. Such a move would provide policy continuity at a time when markets are closely monitoring the Fed’s response to persistent inflation, shifting labor market dynamics, and risks tied to the Middle East conflict. That said, Powell has also acknowledged that such decisions can depend on circumstances at the time — both personal and institutional — and has not framed it as an absolute commitment. If he does remain, it would be consistent with past precedent, where former chairs have occasionally stayed on the Board to provide continuity during leadership transitions.

Together, the two signals — staying through the DOJ probe and remaining on the Board afterward — point to Powell’s broader effort to ensure leadership stability at the Fed during a period of elevated uncertainty. The approach may help anchor market expectations, though it could also intensify congressional and public scrutiny around the investigation and the Fed’s internal governance.

FERTILIZER

—Urea surge — not a broad fertilizer spike — drives spring market risk

Zachary Davis (Nesvick Trading Group) highlights concentrated nitrogen exposure tied to Middle East disruptions and critical planting-season timing

Fertilizer market volatility tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions is proving far more targeted than widely portrayed — with urea emerging as the primary driver of price increases, rather than a broad-based surge across all nutrients.

According to analysis from Zachary Davis of Nesvick Trading Group, potash, ammonium sulfate, and DAP prices have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Instead, the market stress is concentrated in urea — a dynamic rooted in U.S. import dependence and geopolitical exposure.

Urea dependency exposes U.S. to Gulf disruptions. The U.S. imports roughly 2.5 million tons of urea annually, compared to just 0.3 million tons in exports, making it the country’s most import-reliant nitrogen product. Key suppliers — including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Oman — are directly tied to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

This contrasts sharply with other fertilizer inputs:

• Ammonia imports have declined significantly, from 6.1 million short tons in 2010 to just 0.7 million in 2025, with sourcing largely from Trinidad and Canada.

• Potash remains about 87% sourced from Canada, insulating it from Middle East disruptions.

• Compounding the issue, China curtailed fertilizer exports just ahead of the conflict, further tightening global nitrogen supply.

Timing intensifies impact for spring planting. The disruption is hitting at a critical moment. Urea imports typically peak in March and April, reaching 350,000–450,000 tons per month — several times higher than summer levels — as farmers prepare for planting.

This creates immediate risks:

• Farmers without secured contracts may face delivery delays or cancellations

• Late or unavailable nitrogen applications could directly impact corn yield potential

• Input cost pressures are rising at a time when corn prices remain relatively weak

Davis notes that while urea prices remain below 2022 highs, the urea-to-corn price ratio is approaching levels seen at the start of the Ukraine war — signaling renewed margin compression for producers.

Acreage implications emerging. With S&P Global projecting 95.2 million corn acres and 85 million soybean acres (see related item below), rising urea costs could further shift planting decisions:

• Higher nitrogen costs disproportionately affect corn, which is more fertilizer-intensive than soybeans

• Producers already facing tight margins may opt to reduce corn acreage further

Importantly, these shifts may not be immediately visible. USDA’s Prospective Plantings report — based on surveys conducted as the conflict began — is unlikely to capture the full impact. More definitive acreage adjustments may not appear until June data releases or later.

Bottom Line: Davis emphasizes that the current situation is “a urea story, not a fertilizer story.” The combination of import reliance, geopolitical exposure, and seasonal demand concentration has created a narrow but significant pressure point — one with potential ripple effects across U.S. planting decisions and grain markets in the months ahead.

—Fertilizer bookings largely locked in as supply becomes the key variable

Most farmers have already secured inputs — but availability at the retail level could still shape spring execution

Farmers across much of the U.S. appear to be largely insulated from the recent volatility in fertilizer markets — at least when it comes to pricing risk — because most had already locked in their fertilizer needs well ahead of the current geopolitical disruptions.

According to farm-level insights, the vast majority of producers had their fertilizer booked “quite some time” ago, reflecting a continued shift toward earlier procurement strategies following years of supply shocks and price spikes. This trend has become standard risk management, particularly for high-cost inputs like nitrogen, where timing can significantly impact margins.

There remains a smaller subset of producers who had undecided acreage — likely tied to late shifts in planting intentions, particularly between corn and soybeans — and those decisions could still marginally alter fertilizer demand at the edges. However, those acres are not expected to materially change the broader demand picture.

At this stage, the focus is shifting away from farmer purchasing behavior and toward supply chain execution.

The central question now is whether local co-ops and retailers will have sufficient physical product on hand during peak application windows. While most indications suggest inventories are adequate, especially given early booking patterns, localized tightness cannot be ruled out — particularly if logistics disruptions emerge or if demand spikes in specific regions.

In short, fertilizer risk has evolved from a pricing story earlier in the cycle to a logistics and availability story heading into the heart of the spring season — with most farmers positioned, but the system still needing to deliver.

—Fertilizer rally may be peaking as analysts warn CF stock is overextended

Middle East supply shock boosts nitrogen prices, but Mizuho sees limited upside as demand timing and historical trends cap gains

Shares of CF Industries have surged amid the Middle East conflict, but analysts are warning the rally may be nearing its limits despite elevated fertilizer prices.

Mizuho Securities downgraded CF Industries to Underperform from Neutral, arguing that the recent spike in nitrogen prices — driven by disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz — is likely temporary and already priced into the stock. While the firm raised its price target modestly to $100, shares are trading well above that level at roughly $124, up 59% year-to-date and 24% since the Iran war began.

The bullish narrative has centered on supply constraints. Roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions have tightened global markets, lifting nitrogen and phosphate prices. As a U.S.-based nitrogen producer benefiting from lower domestic natural gas costs, CF has been a major beneficiary.

However, Mizuho argues the market may be overestimating how much of that price strength will translate into earnings. A key limitation: many U.S. farmers have already prepaid for fertilizer needs for the 2026 planting season, meaning fewer volumes will be sold at today’s elevated prices. While corn acreage — and thus nitrogen demand — is expected to remain firm, the pricing upside may not fully materialize in near-term sales.

Historical precedent also tempers expectations. Nitrogen fertilizer prices spiked sharply following the 2022 Russia/Ukraine war but quickly normalized, falling from near $1,000 per metric ton to roughly $300–$500 within a year. Mizuho expects a similar pattern this time, assuming no lasting damage to global production infrastructure.

The firm still sees a short-term earnings boost for CF in 2026, along with improved balance sheet metrics such as lower net debt. But beyond that, the outlook flattens, with 2027 earnings estimates unchanged — reinforcing the view that the current rally reflects a temporary geopolitical premium rather than a sustained structural shift.

—Trump administration issues 60-day Jones Act waiver amid Iran war disruption

Move aims to ease fuel and fertilizer logistics — but impact on prices likely limited

The Trump administration on Wednesday issued a temporary 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a century-old U.S. shipping law, as part of its response to the Iran conflict and resulting energy disruptions. The waiver allows foreign-flagged vessels to transport goods between U.S. ports — something normally prohibited. It applies broadly to oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, fertilizer, and other commodities.

The administration described it as a measure to address short-term disruptions from the Middle East war and supply shocks.

Under normal law, domestic shipping must be done on U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged, and U.S.-crewed vessels, which significantly limits available capacity.

Why the move was made. The decision is directly tied to the closure/disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and resulting spikes in energy and fertilizer costs:

• Roughly 20% of global oil/LNG flows normally transit Hormuz — now heavily disrupted

• U.S. fuel prices and fertilizer costs surged, hitting consumers and farmers

• The waiver is meant to increase shipping flexibility, especially from the Gulf Coast to other U.S. regions

It also complements other actions like Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and broader supply-chain stabilization efforts.

Key impacts

1) Logistics and supply chains — modest improvement

• Expands the pool of ships available for domestic transport

• Helps move fuel and inputs (including fertilizer) more quickly to constrained regions

• Reduces bottlenecks, especially Gulf Coast → Northeast / West Coast flows

This is particularly relevant for agriculture, where fertilizer distribution during spring planting is time sensitive.

2) Prices — limited effect

• Analysts widely agree the waiver will not materially lower gasoline prices

• Estimated impact: only a few cents per gallon at most

• Core issue remains global crude supply, not domestic shipping constraints

Bottom Line: it reduces friction, but does not solve the underlying supply shock.

3) Agriculture — marginal but meaningful relief

• Improves access to fertilizer and fuel logistics

• Farm groups welcomed the move amid cost spikes and shortage concerns

• Helps stabilize input availability, though not necessarily prices

This is a timing benefit more than a cost fix — critical during planting season.

4) Maritime industry — political backlash

• U.S. shipping and labor groups strongly oppose the waiver

• Concerns include:

• Loss of business to foreign carriers
• Use of lower-cost foreign labor
• Undermining the domestic maritime base

This highlights a tension: national security vs. short-term economic relief

5) Markets — modest signaling effect

• Signals policy flexibility from an administration that typically supports the Jones Act

• Some boost to global shipping firms; mixed reaction in broader markets

Bottom Line: The Trump administration’s Jones Act waiver is a tactical, short-term measure:

What it does: Eases domestic transport constraints for energy and fertilizer

What it doesn’t do: Fix the global supply shock driving prices

Net effect:

• Positive for logistics and timing (especially agriculture)

• Minimal impact on inflation or fuel prices

• Politically controversial with maritime stakeholders

—India scrambles to secure fertilizer supplies amid war disruptions

New Delhi explores deals with Russia, Belarus, and Morocco as LNG constraints and export curbs tighten global availability

India is moving to shore up fertilizer supplies by opening talks with Russia, Belarus, and Morocco, as the ongoing Middle East conflict threatens to disrupt global inputs critical to agricultural production, according to a Reuters report.

Government officials signaled growing concern that prolonged instability could strain availability despite currently adequate inventories. “We’ve got more stocks than last year, but if the war goes on longer, things could get tight,” one source told Reuters, adding that India is actively seeking additional shipments in the coming months.

The urgency stems from multiple converging pressures on the global fertilizer market:

•Middle East supply risks — Reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments are a key concern, particularly as Qatar is India’s primary LNG supplier. LNG is a crucial feedstock for producing urea, one of India’s most widely used fertilizers.

•China export constraints — Limits on Chinese fertilizer exports are tightening global supply availability.

•Geopolitical sourcing shifts — India is turning to major producers including Russia and Belarus (key potash suppliers) and Morocco (a leading phosphate exporter).

India’s fertilizer system adds another layer of complexity. While private companies handle imports, procurement decisions are effectively coordinated due to heavy government regulation and subsidies, meaning sourcing strategies are closely aligned with national food security priorities.

Additional sourcing from Indonesia is also under consideration, though officials cautioned that available volumes may be limited.

Bottom Line: India is proactively diversifying fertilizer imports as a hedge against a potential supply squeeze — a move that underscores how energy disruptions, trade restrictions, and geopolitical conflict are converging to tighten global agricultural input markets.

AG MARKETS

—S&P Global Energy released its latest 2026 U.S. planting outlook, based on a monthly survey of farmers and agribusinesses. The firm projects corn plantings at 95.2 million acres and soybean plantings at 85.0 million acres. Corn acres were revised slightly higher from 95.0 million in January but remain well below the 98.8 million acres planted in 2025. Soybean acreage also edged up from 84.5 million in January and is notably above the 81.2 million acres seeded last year. Winter wheat plantings for the 2026 harvest are estimated at 44.05 million acres — up 40,000 acres from the January outlook but down roughly 1.3 million acres compared to 2025.

—Allendale survey signals acreage shift toward soybeans in 2026

Corn plantings fall sharply while soybean acres expand; production outlook mixed vs. USDA expectations

Allendale, Inc.’s 2026 nationwide acreage survey points to a meaningful shift in U.S. planting intentions, with farmers pulling back on corn acres and expanding soybean plantings heading into the new crop year.

Acreage trends: Corn down, soybeans up. The survey — conducted March 2–13 across 26 states — estimates corn acreage at 93.678 million acres, down 5.11 million acres from 2025 and slightly below USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum estimate of 94.0 million. By contrast, soybean acreage is projected at 85.659 million acres, an increase of 4.444 million acres year-over-year, coming in above USDA’s 85.0 million estimate.

Wheat acreage is relatively stable but modestly lower overall at 44.877 million acres, broken down as:

•Winter wheat: 33.092 million acres

•Spring wheat (other): 9.678 million acres

•Durum: 2.107 million acres

Producer selling patterns lag on new crop. The survey also highlights cautious forward selling:

Corn:

Old crop: 69% sold (in line with 10-year average)

New crop: 9% sold (below 12% average)

Soybeans:

Old crop: 83% sold (above 80% average)

New crop: 11% sold (below 15% average)

Bottom Line: The data underscores a clear rotation away from corn toward soybeans, likely reflecting relative input costs, margins, and risk management preferences. At the same time, producers remain hesitant to lock in new crop sales, signaling ongoing uncertainty around prices, policy, and global market conditions heading into the 2026 growing season.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price March 18	Change from March 17
Corn	May	$4.63 1/4	+9 1/4 cents
Soybeans	May	$11.61 3/4	+4 3/4 cents
Soybean Meal	May	$321.70	+$10.00
Soybean Oil	May	65.53	-44 points
SRW Wheat	May	$6.04 1/4	+14 1/2 cents
HRW Wheat	May	$6.26	+19 1/4 cents
Spring Wheat	May	$6.37 1/4	+13 cents
Cotton	May	68.70 cents	-7 points
Live Cattle	April	$235.40	+$0.175
Feeder Cattle	March	$358.725	-$1.075
Lean Hogs	April	$93.75	+$0.025

FARM POLICY

—Farmers launch new conservation advocacy network

New coalition spanning 15 states pushes for stronger federal support for soil health, water quality, and climate resilience programs 

A new farm advocacy group focused on conservation policy officially launched Wednesday, aiming to build support for stronger federal investment in voluntary agriculture conservation programs.

American Farmers for Conservation, created by Invest In Our Land, brings together farmers from 15 states to advocate for expanded funding for programs designed to help producers manage extreme weather, improve soil health, and protect water quality. The group is framing conservation not only as an environmental priority, but also as a practical farm-management tool that can strengthen operations over the long term.

At the launch event, Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) said the effort is about giving farmers more control over how they respond to weather and resource challenges. He argued that conservation programs work best when they are voluntary and producer-driven, allowing farmers and ranchers to make decisions that fit their own land and operations.

The new coalition enters the debate as lawmakers continue to weigh the future of federal conservation funding, an issue that has become increasingly tied to broader discussions over farm bill priorities, climate resilience, and the role of USDA programs in helping producers adapt to more volatile growing conditions.

—Farm Bill 2.0 faces tight timeline amid election-year headwinds

House panel advances sweeping 802-page bill as Congress weighs “skinny” alternative

A new farm bill — often referred to as “Farm Bill 2.0” or a potential “Skinny Farm Bill” — remains a top priority ahead of the September 30 expiration of the current extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, even after last year’s passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) reduced pressure for immediate safety-net expansion.

According to analysis (link) by Joe Outlaw and Bart L. Fischer of Texas A&M University, published by Southern Ag Today, the debate now centers less on commodity support and more on the broader scope of farm bill programs that extend well beyond Title I safety-net provisions.

The House Ag Committee advanced the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 on March 5, a significantly expanded package that spans 802 pages — compared to 529 pages in the 2018 law — while maintaining the traditional 12-title structure. These titles include commodity programs, conservation, trade, nutrition, credit, rural development, research, forestry, energy, horticulture, crop insurance, and regulatory matters.

The bill incorporates 181 individual “marker bills” from lawmakers and includes several notable policy provisions:

• Prop 12 pre-emption language: Establishes a federal standard allowing livestock producers to raise and market animals in interstate commerce without being subject to conflicting state production mandates.

•Conservation Reserve Program (CRP): Reauthorized at 27 million acres, reinforcing conservation capacity.

•Farm credit expansion: Raises borrowing limits to support producers facing ongoing financial stress amid the current downturn in the farm economy.

Legislative path forward. House Ag Committee Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) is now seeking floor time to advance the bill through the full House. Meanwhile, the Senate Agriculture Committee must draft, mark up, and pass its own version before any final legislation can be negotiated through a conference committee.

Outlaw and Fischer note that while this process follows the traditional legislative pathway, election-year dynamics could complicate progress. Historically, midterm election cycles slow legislative activity as political considerations take precedence. Still, precedent suggests a late-year resolution remains possible, they note. The 2018 Farm Bill, for example, was ultimately enacted in December following midterm elections during President Donald Trump’s first term.

Bottom Line: Even with OBBBA easing immediate safety-net concerns, the broader farm bill remains critical to agriculture and rural America — particularly for conservation, credit, and rural development programs. Outlaw and Fischer say the key question now is whether Congress can navigate political constraints and complete the process before — or shortly after — the current extension expires.

POULTRY

—USDA delays poultry transparency rule, drawing Farm Bureau criticism

Contract growers warn postponement prolongs uncertainty over pay systems and investment risks

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is voicing strong disappointment after USDA delayed implementation of the Poultry Grower Payment Systems and Capital Improvement Systems final rule until Dec. 31, 2027.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the rule was intended to address longstanding concerns among contract poultry growers — particularly the use of “tournament-style” pay systems and requirements for costly on-farm upgrades without assurances those investments would be recovered.

Duvall argued the delay effectively sidelines growers for another year and a half, despite increasing calls for greater transparency in how poultry companies determine compensation. He emphasized that many producers believed progress was being made toward leveling the playing field.

The organization signaled it will use the upcoming public comment period to push the administration to prioritize farmers’ interests, warning that continued delays risk favoring large poultry integrators over the contract growers who supply the industry.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Thursday: Oil spikes above $118 as Middle East attacks hit energy infrastructure

Iranian retaliation drives supply fears, widens Brent premium, and reinforces inflation risks

Oil prices surged Thursday following a major escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Brent crude climbed above $118 — the highest in over a week.

WTI crude briefly hit $100, but remains at a steep discount to Brent.

Infrastructure strikes trigger supply concerns. Iran launched retaliatory attacks across key energy sites after Israel struck the South Pars gas field:

• Damage reported at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub

• Strikes on Saudi and Kuwaiti refineries

• Broader threats to Gulf energy facilities

Market impact

• Rising fears of prolonged supply disruptions and Hormuz instability

• Brent outperforming WTI due to global supply exposure

• Fed’s hawkish hold adds to inflation concerns tied to higher energy prices

President Donald Trump said the U.S. was not involved in the South Pars strike but warned of a response if Iran targets Qatar, as the administration weighs additional troop deployments.

Bottom Line: Markets are shifting from risk premium to real supply disruption, pushing oil higher and increasing inflation pressure globally.

—Wednesday: Oil surges above $100 as Middle East energy attacks intensify

Strikes on Iranian and Qatari infrastructure, combined with Hormuz disruption, raise fears of prolonged global supply shock

Oil prices climbed sharply Wednesday as escalating attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the Middle East heightened concerns over sustained supply disruptions and a tightening global market.

Brent crude settled at $107.38 per barrel, up nearly $4 (3.8%), after briefly approaching $110 and holding above $100 for a second consecutive session.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $96.32, posting a more modest gain of 11 cents.

The rally follows a significant escalation in the regional conflict, including a strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field — part of the world’s largest natural gas reserve — and reported missile damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial hub, a key center for global liquefied natural gas exports. The attacks have raised alarm about the vulnerability of core energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Compounding market fears, the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that typically handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows — remains effectively closed, severely disrupting maritime energy shipments. The continued instability has injected a significant geopolitical risk premium into crude markets, with traders increasingly pricing in the possibility of prolonged outages and broader regional spillover.

The combination of physical supply risks and constrained shipping capacity is now driving heightened volatility, with energy markets closely watching for further escalation that could deepen disruptions to global oil and gas flows.

—Canada’s ethanol market under pressure from U.S. imports

Domestic producers push for policy changes as competitiveness concerns grow

Canada’s ethanol industry is facing mounting pressure from surging U.S. imports, raising concerns about the long-term viability of domestic production just as biofuel policies are designed to expand demand. In a March 18, 2026, report and interview by RealAgriculture, industry leaders warned that without policy adjustments, Canadian ethanol risks being crowded out in its own market.

In an interview (link) with RealAgriculture’s Shaun Haney and written by Lyndsey Smith, Debra Conlon, director of government relations for the Grain Farmers of Ontario, underscored ethanol’s central role in the province’s agricultural economy. More than 30% of Ontario’s corn production is used for ethanol, supporting local processing, livestock feed markets through distillers’ grains, and broader regional economic activity tied to corn production.

However, the competitiveness gap with the U.S. is widening. Conlon pointed to strong American policy support — including tax incentives and production credits — that has made it more economical to produce ethanol in the U.S. and export it to Canada. As a result, Canada now imports roughly 3 billion litres (793 million gallons) of U.S. ethanol annually, compared to about 1.2 billion litres (317 million gallons) of domestic production, making it the largest foreign buyer of U.S. ethanol.

While imports are necessary to meet Canada’s current blending mandates, industry stakeholders argue that the current framework does little to support domestic capacity. At the same time, U.S. policymakers — including the White House and USTR — are actively seeking to expand ethanol exports through trade negotiations, adding further competitive pressure.

To address the imbalance, the Grain Farmers of Ontario and industry partners are advocating for targeted amendments to Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR). Proposed changes include a 5% domestic content requirement and a credit multiplier system to enhance the value of Canadian-produced ethanol without direct subsidies. These measures are intended to attract investment and improve competitiveness relative to U.S. programs such as the 45Z tax credit.

Timing remains uncertain. While some expect draft regulatory changes by fall, industry sources suggest implementation could slip to 2027.

Conlon emphasized that the goal is not to restrict trade but to ensure Canada maintains a viable domestic ethanol sector: “It’s about competing, not about impeding.”

TRADE POLICY

—EU advances U.S. trade deal despite tariff uncertainty

Parliament committee clears path for full vote while seeking clarity on Trump administration tariff structure

The European Parliament’s trade committee on Thursday advanced a long-awaited trade agreement with the United States, moving the deal toward a full vote as early as next week.

Lawmakers approved sending the pact to the full Parliament, marking a key procedural step. If endorsed, the agreement would then require approval from EU member states before taking effect.

The deal — originally struck last summer — established a 15% tariff ceiling on most EU exports to the U.S. However, that framework has been thrown into uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s recent decision striking down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs. In response, the Trump administration has imposed a temporary 10% across-the-board levy while working to rebuild its broader tariff regime.

Despite assurances from Washington that it intends to honor the agreement, EU lawmakers remain cautious. The committee inserted a provision requiring explicit U.S. guarantees of the 15% tariff cap before the deal can enter into force.

Tensions also persist over U.S. metals tariffs. European lawmakers are pressing the administration to address a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products — including a wide range of downstream goods — that continues to weigh on transatlantic trade.

A final Parliament vote is expected later this month or in April, after which negotiations with member states will determine whether the agreement can be fully ratified amid ongoing tariff and trade policy uncertainty.

—Judge rejects bid to expand participation in IEEPA tariff refund case

Court keeps Atmus Filtration as sole active plaintiff despite concerns over representation of 330,000 importers

A federal judge has denied a request to broaden participation in the flagship case governing refunds of President Trump’s overturned emergency tariffs, leaving a single company — Atmus Filtration — as the only importer with a formal voice in proceedings that could affect hundreds of thousands of businesses.

Judge Richard Eaton of the U.S. Court of International Trade rejected, without explanation, Atmus’ motion to create a centralized “master case” and appoint a plaintiffs’ steering committee to represent the estimated 330,000 importers that paid duties under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Atmus had argued it could not adequately represent the broader universe of affected importers, warning that key legal and procedural decisions — including how refunds are processed — are being made with limited input. The company said this could ultimately delay repayments or create inconsistencies in how claims are handled.

Despite those concerns, Eaton’s ruling reinforces a tightly controlled process. The Atmus case remains the sole active venue for shaping refund procedures, with hearings and settlement discussions restricted to the company, its attorneys, and the federal government. Other importers have already been denied even limited participation.

The litigation carries sweeping implications. Following the Supreme Court’s decision overturning the tariffs, Eaton ordered U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to refund duties on a broad set of imports, including those still in liquidation or not yet finalized. The agency is now developing a phased electronic refund system through its Automated Commercial Environment (ACE).

However, tensions remain over implementation. Atmus flagged a potential mismatch between the court’s directive — which suggests automatic refunds — and CBP’s plan requiring importers to proactively submit claims, potentially shifting the administrative burden onto businesses.

The company had proposed adopting a structure similar to past large-scale trade cases, including coordinated litigation, test cases, and broader legal representation. It also noted support from attorneys representing roughly half of the existing IEEPA-related claims.

For now, the court appears committed to a streamlined — but narrow — approach, even as a closed-door settlement conference between Atmus and the government is scheduled for March 19.

Bottom Line: The ruling centralizes control of the tariff refund process but raises concerns about whether the interests of the broader importer community will be fully represented as the government finalizes how billions in refunds are distributed.

CONGRESS

—Senators press Mullin in DHS confirmation hearing

Bipartisan scrutiny focuses on temperament, qualifications, and past remarks ahead of expected committee approval

Lawmakers on the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Wednesday sharply questioned President Donald Trump’s nominee for Homeland Security secretary, Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), probing his temperament, limited executive experience, and prior comments.

Chairman Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) challenged Mullin over statements he said appeared to condone political violence, while Democrats and Republicans alike raised concerns about his qualifications for the role.

Mullin maintained a measured tone throughout the hearing and, at times, sought to distance himself from recently dismissed DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.

Paul said he does not plan to back Mullin to lead the Department of Homeland Security. Despite the pushback, Mullin is expected to advance out of committee Thursday, setting up a full Senate confirmation vote early next week. DHS has been shut down for 33 days now.

—House panel advances bill to dock lawmaker pay during shutdowns

Bipartisan measure seeks to penalize Congress amid prolonged DHS funding lapse, but constitutional concerns persist

A bipartisan House effort to withhold pay from lawmakers during government shutdowns moved forward Wednesday, as frustration mounts over a partial funding lapse that has stretched beyond a month.

The House Administration Committee unanimously approved HR 5891 — led by Chairman Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) — on a 9–0 vote, setting up potential consideration by the full House. The bill would reduce lawmakers’ salaries for each day a government shutdown is in effect, directing payroll administrators to deduct one day’s worth of annual pay for every day of lapsed appropriations.

The proposal aims to address a longstanding political flashpoint: while federal workers can be required to work without pay during shutdowns, members of Congress continue receiving salaries due to constitutional requirements under Article I. In past shutdowns, lawmakers have attempted to sidestep criticism by donating or deferring their pay, but they have still been legally entitled to compensation.

Supporters from both parties argue the measure could help rebuild public trust in Congress, even as they remain divided over responsibility for the current impasse — particularly the ongoing Department of Homeland Security funding standoff tied to immigration policy under President Donald Trump.

However, constitutional concerns remain unresolved. Previous versions of similar proposals have stalled over questions about whether Congress can legally alter its own compensation structure in this manner. Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), the panel’s top Democrat, backed the bill but warned it could create unintended leverage for future presidents in budget negotiations.

The legislation’s advancement comes amid a broader push on Capitol Hill to tighten ethics rules, including renewed — but stalled — efforts to ban stock trading by lawmakers, underscoring a wider bipartisan focus on accountability reforms.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: An anomalously early and record-breaking heatwave continues to intensify across the Western U.S. and expand east into the Great Plains… …Wet weather continues for Western Washington; wintry mix expected across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to the Interior Northeast… …Critical Risk of fire weather across portions of the central and

northern High Plains.