Update on March 27 White House Ag Confab 

USDA as of March 19 has distributed $8.3 billion of the $11 billion authorized under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program
 

LINKS

Link: Trump/Xi Summit Reset Sharpens Focus on Ag Deliverables
          Beyond Soybeans

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21

Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21
Topics discussed on podcast:
Markets: Friday closes and weekly change
           Salute to Orion Samuelson
           Issues: 

1.    Trump/Xi reschedule and impact on ag

2.    New farmer aid prospects

3.    Around $8.3 billion paid out via bridge aid program

4.    Top-up payments for SDRP-Stage 1

5.    Ag event Friday at White House — RFS details or not?

6.    Fertilizer issue and the war with Iran (Jones Act waiver)

7.    Dryness in Plains HRW

8.    Wildfires…Nebraska

9.    Year-round E15 prospects still pending. Why?

10.  Greeley JBS plant strike
11.   USMCA

12.   Wasserman on midterm elections

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 21, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— USDA accelerates $8.3B in Farmer Bridge Assistance payments — Majority of funds deployed, providing critical liquidity as farm incomes remain under pressure.

— White House to host March 27 “Celebration of Agriculture” — Large South Lawn event may coincide with biofuels mandate decision and broader farm policy rollout.

— U.S. signals progress in Iran conflict while weighing drawdown — Military gains contrast with uncertainty over escalation and oil market volatility.

— Iran expands war to global economy — Energy disruptions and Hormuz constraints push U.S., Israel, and Gulf states toward aligned strategic objectives.

— War shock ripples through global economy — Gas prices surge, defense spending spikes, and Europe pivots toward China amid prolonged conflict.

— United Airlines prepares for $175 oil scenario — CEO signals prolonged energy volatility shaping corporate strategy through 2027.

— Iran war fallout expected to linger for years — Structural energy damage, fertilizer shortages, and inflation risks extend beyond battlefield.

— U.S. escalates effort to reopen Strait of Hormuz — Expanded strikes paired with temporary sanctions relief to stabilize oil markets.

— Canada signals resource leverage in U.S. tariff dispute — Oil and critical minerals framed as bargaining tools in trade negotiations.

— Musk offers to pay TSA workers during shutdown — Proposal highlights mounting airport disruptions amid funding standoff.

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FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Stocks fall for week — Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 post broad declines amid geopolitical and energy-driven volatility.

— Dimon maps JPMorgan’s next phase — CEO focuses on succession, AI investment, and global expansion amid rising competition.

— Powell invokes Volcker amid political pressure — Fed chair defends independence as inflation outlook rises and nomination fight stalls.

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WAR WITH IRAN

— Energy shock hits developing economies hardest — Countries like Pakistan and Egypt face crisis risk from high import costs and weak reserves.

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AG MARKETS

— Cattle on Feed report signals tight near-term supply — Lower inventories support prices, while higher placements point to later supply increases.

— Russia cattle outbreak raises disease concerns — Mass culling and uncertainty risk trade disruptions despite no confirmed FMD.

— Ag futures mixed on week — Grains weaken, livestock strengthens, reflecting tight cattle supply and broader commodity pressure.

FARM POLICY

— Canada expands farm aid amid input cost surge — Credit support targets fertilizer and energy shocks ahead of planting season.

FERTILIZER

— Fertilizer crisis deepens as war hits phosphate and sulfur supply — Rising input costs threaten global crop production and margins.

— Trump cannot unilaterally suspend Moroccan fertilizer duties — Trade laws require formal review, limiting near-term policy flexibility.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil surges to four-year high — Supply disruptions and Hormuz risks drive Brent above $112 and intensify volatility.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

— Chocolate prices remain high despite cocoa collapse — Retail lag keeps Easter candy costs elevated until mid-2026.

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

— Trump threatens ICE deployment to airports — TSA staffing shortages worsen amid DHS shutdown and immigration standoff.

WEATHER

— Extreme heat and fire risk expand across U.S. — Western heat wave intensifies while wintry conditions persist in the Northeast.
 

TOP STORIES—USDA accelerates Farmer Bridge Assistance Payments as majority of funds deployedProgram delivers $8.3 billion to producers, with remaining balance expected to flow amid ongoing farm income pressures USDA as of March 19 has distributed $8.3 billion of the $11 billion authorized under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, marking a significant ramp-up in federal support to producers navigating a prolonged period of weak commodity prices, high input costs, and tightening credit conditions. The payments — designed as a short-term financial bridge ahead of longer-term farm bill or ad hoc disaster assistance — have reached a broad cross-section of producers, with USDA prioritizing speed of delivery through existing Farm Service Agency (FSA) infrastructure.Where the program stands• Roughly 75% of total authorized funding has now been disbursed, signaling USDA’s push to front-load support amid deteriorating farm income conditions.• About $2.7 billion remains available, which could be deployed in additional tranches or targeted adjustments depending on market conditions and policy direction.• Payments have largely been tied to base acres and historical production, allowing for faster rollout but raising ongoing questions about regional equity and alignment with current planting decisions. Why it matters now. The acceleration in FBA payments comes as multiple stress points converge across the farm economy:• Commodity prices remain under pressure in key sectors, particularly grains and oilseeds, even as volatility persists in energy-linked markets.• Input costs, especially fertilizer and fuel, remain elevated due in part to geopolitical disruptions, including the ongoing conflict affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz.• Farm credit conditions continue to tighten, with rising interest rates pressuring operating loans and working capital. Against that backdrop, the FBA program is serving as a critical liquidity injection — particularly for row crop producers facing margin compression heading into the 2026 planting season. Policy and political implications. The scale and speed of the FBA rollout are also feeding directly into broader farm bill negotiations and budget debates:• Lawmakers are increasingly viewing the program as a template for rapid-response farm support, especially in periods of market dislocation tied to trade or geopolitical shocks.• At the same time, the large outlay is intensifying scrutiny over ad hoc spending versus permanent safety net reforms, including reference prices and crop insurance enhancements.• The remaining balance of funds could become a policy lever, with USDA and Congress weighing whether to target specific commodities, regions, or disaster-related losses. Bottom Line: With more than three-quarters of funds already deployed, the Farmer Bridge Assistance program is emerging as a central pillar of near-term farm support — but its structure and execution are likely to shape the next phase of debate over how the U.S. designs a more durable agricultural safety net.—White House “Celebration of Agriculture” coming Friday, March 27Large-scale South Lawn event expected to spotlight farm policy agenda and potentially coincide with biofuels decisionThe White House is preparing to host a major agriculture-focused event on Friday, March 27, bringing together hundreds of farmers, ranchers, and agribusiness leaders as part of a broader push to reinforce support for rural America and highlight the administration’s farm agenda.Who is expected to attend •Farmers and ranchers: Between 800 and nearly 1,000 producers from across the country have been invited •Agribusiness leaders. CEOs and senior executives from major companies including:John DeereTractor SupplyCNH Industrial • Biofuels industry participants. Ethanol and biodiesel producers, along with broader renewable fuels stakeholders •Administration officials:President Donald TrumpUSDA Secretary Brooke RollinsAdditional White House and policy officialsThe event is framed as a “celebration of agriculture” on the White House South Lawn, timed around National Agriculture Week.What is expected to be announced 1. Biofuels mandate decision (RFS / RVOs) — possible but uncertainThe biggest policy question is whether the administration will unveil Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blending mandates for 2026–2027. These Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) determine how much ethanol and biodiesel must be blended into U.S. fuel supply — a key driver of corn and soybean demand.Markets are watching closely because proposed levels would increase total blending requirements significantly.However, there is conflicting guidance:•Some expect the announcement at the event•Others say EPA has not confirmed it will be released that dayBottom Line: The event is a logical venue for the announcement, but not guaranteed.2. Broader “pro-farmer” policy agenda rollout. The White House is expected to emphasize a wide-ranging farm policy platform, including:•Lower input costs (fertilizer, chemicals, fuel)•Expanded export markets via trade policy• Strengthened farm safety net programs•Tax changes, including:Doubling estate tax exemptionsEliminating taxes on rural loan interestRural economic initiatives, such as opportunity zonesThis reflects a broader effort to stabilize farm income amid:• Weak commodity prices• Rising input costs•Trade disruptions and geopolitical pressures3. Political and coalition-building objectives. The event is also designed to:•Reinforce ties with rural voters and farm groups•Highlight agriculture’s role in the U.S. economy•Strengthen support ahead of key elections in farm-heavy statesBottom Line: The March 27 White House gathering is shaping up as a high-profile agriculture policy moment, combining:• A large-scale show of support from farmers and agribusiness• Messaging around the administration’s farm and rural agenda• Potential — but not certain — announcement of biofuels mandates, one of the most consequential policy decisions for commodity markets this yearFor markets — especially corn, soybean oil, and biofuels — the RVO decision remains the key variable to watch coming out of the event.—U.S. signals progress in Iran conflict while Trump floats drawdownMixed messaging emerges as military pressure continues, oil markets surge, and risks of escalation persist The United States says it has significantly degraded Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, even as President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of “winding down” military operations in the region. Trump’s remarks, delivered via social media, suggested U.S. objectives may soon be met. However, they contrasted sharply with other signals — including his refusal to rule out ground troop deployment and continued Israeli calls to intensify the campaign — underscoring uncertainty about the war’s trajectory. On the ground, U.S. Central Command reported strikes on Iranian anti-ship missile systems, radar installations, and underground facilities tied to threats against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Meanwhile, the conflict is expanding geographically. Iran launched missiles toward a U.S.-UK base in Diego Garcia and continued drone and missile attacks on Gulf states, highlighting its ability to project power beyond its borders. Despite sustained U.S./Israeli strikes, intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s regime remains intact and is consolidating around hardline leadership rather than weakening — complicating expectations of a near-term resolution. Energy markets remain highly volatile. Brent crude surged above $112 per barrel — the highest since 2022 — before easing slightly after Trump’s comments about a potential drawdown. To stabilize prices, the U.S. Treasury temporarily authorized the sale of Iranian oil already at sea through April 19. Meanwhile, the administration is weighing more aggressive options, including a potential ground operation targeting Iran’s key export infrastructure at Kharg Island — a move that would significantly escalate risks and costs. The Pentagon has already requested more than $200 billion in additional war funding, signaling expectations of a prolonged conflict despite talk of de-escalation. Taken together, the situation reflects a widening gap between tactical military gains and strategic uncertainty, with global energy markets and geopolitical stability hanging in the balance.—War expands beyond battlefield as Iran targets global economyStrait of Hormuz disruptions and energy attacks deepen pressure on U.S., Israel, and Gulf states to escalate objectives As the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week, the military balance has tilted sharply against Iran — but the war is increasingly being defined by its economic fallout rather than battlefield outcomes. The United States and Israel have significantly degraded Iran’s military capabilities, targeting armed forces, eliminating senior political figures, and destroying maritime assets. While these gains could have offered a natural off-ramp, President Donald Trump is now confronting a broader and more complex challenge: Iran’s parallel campaign against the global economy. Tehran’s strategy has centered on disrupting energy flows, with continued attacks on oil infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil and fertilizer shipments. Efforts to restore safe passage have so far fallen short, amplifying volatility in energy markets and prolonging economic uncertainty. The conflict is also reshaping regional dynamics. Gulf states, while not formally entering the war, have absorbed much of Iran’s retaliation and are increasingly aligned with Washington and Israel. Their position has hardened around a clear objective — ensuring the conflict does not end with Iran still capable of threatening regional economies. Upshot: What began as a campaign with divergent goals is now converging into a broader strategic alignment: preventing Iran from retaining the leverage to weaponize global energy markets. —War shock ripples through global economy as costs mount and alliances shiftFuel prices surge, defense spending spikes, and Europe pivots toward China amid prolonged Middle East conflict The economic fallout from the escalating war in the Middle East is becoming increasingly visible across energy markets, fiscal policy, and global trade dynamics, as analysts warn the conflict is entering a more prolonged and structurally disruptive phase. U.S. consumers are already feeling the impact at the pump. Gasoline prices have risen by roughly $1 per gallon nationwide since the conflict began, reflecting tighter global oil supplies and heightened risk premiums tied to instability in the Persian Gulf. With key energy infrastructure under threat and shipping routes constrained, analysts expect continued volatility — and potentially further price increases — if disruptions persist. Meanwhile, the fiscal cost of the conflict is rapidly escalating. The Pentagon’s request for more than $200 billion in additional war funding signals that U.S. defense planners are preparing for an extended engagement rather than a short-term operation. That level of spending would significantly widen federal outlays and could complicate an already strained fiscal outlook, particularly as interest costs remain elevated. Beyond immediate economic pressures, the war is also accelerating shifts in global trade alignments. European leaders, facing both energy insecurity and industrial strain, are moving to deepen economic ties with China. The outreach reflects a pragmatic effort to stabilize supply chains and offset weakening growth prospects, but it also underscores the risk of further fragmentation in the global trading system. Taken together, rising energy costs, expanding government spending, and shifting geopolitical alliances point to a more durable economic shock. Analysts increasingly warn that the conflict is not only a regional security crisis, but a catalyst for broader global economic realignment — with implications for inflation, trade flows, and long-term growth. —United Airlines braces for prolonged oil shockCEO Scott Kirby signals contingency planning for $175 oil scenario amid sustained global energy volatility United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby is preparing the carrier for a prolonged period of elevated fuel costs, warning employees that internal planning assumptions now include oil prices rising to $175 per barrel and remaining above $100 until late 2027. In a letter to staff, Kirby framed the scenario as a prudent stress test rather than a base-case forecast, noting there is “a good chance it won’t be that bad,” but emphasizing that the airline sees little downside in preparing for a severe energy shock. The guidance underscores how deeply the aviation sector is factoring in geopolitical risk — particularly disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict and instability in key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows. Fuel is typically one of the largest cost components for airlines, often accounting for 25%–35% of total operating expenses. A sustained move toward $175 oil would significantly pressure margins, likely forcing carriers to:• Raise ticket prices to offset higher jet fuel costs• Reduce capacity or adjust flight schedules, particularly on less profitable routes• Accelerate fuel hedging and efficiency strategies, including fleet modernization Kirby’s outlook also aligns with broader market concerns that structural supply disruptions — not just short-term shocks — could keep energy prices elevated for years. Ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure, constrained spare capacity among major producers, and shipping bottlenecks have all contributed to a tighter global oil balance. Meanwhile, Kirby signaled that United’s strategy is to remain ahead of potential volatility rather than react to it, positioning the airline to adapt quickly if worst-case conditions materialize — or to benefit if prices stabilize sooner than expected. The message reflects a wider shift across corporate America, where executives are increasingly planning for extended geopolitical and commodity-driven uncertainty rather than assuming a rapid return to pre-crisis conditions. —Lingering shockwaves — Iran war’s economic fallout extends beyond the battlefieldEnergy infrastructure damage, supply chain disruptions, and commodity constraints point to prolonged inflation and slower global growth The economic consequences of the Iran war are increasingly expected to outlast the conflict itself, even if a ceasefire or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz occurs in the near term. Why it matters: While markets have so far dealt primarily with logistical disruptions, analysts warn the conflict is now escalating into physical damage of energy infrastructure — a shift that could prolong supply shortages and keep prices elevated for months or even years. Energy disruption turning structural. Early impacts centered on shipping bottlenecks through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil, gas, and fertilizer flows. Now, direct attacks on facilities — including Iran’s South Pars gas field and broader Gulf infrastructure — are raising the risk of lasting production losses.Qatar reports roughly 17% of its natural gas export capacity has been knocked offline, with up to 13 million tons of LNG annually sidelined for as long as five years. Analysts emphasize that restoring infrastructure — not just reopening shipping lanes — will determine how quickly markets normalize, with price declines expected to lag far behind the initial spike. Agriculture and food inflation risks rising• Natural gas shortages directly impact fertilizer production, a key input for global agriculture.• Roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer — and nearly half of urea trade — moves through Hormuz, leaving supplies stranded.• U.S. farmers who did not pre-purchase fertilizer may face input shortages during spring planting, raising the risk of lower yields and higher food prices into 2027.• Elevated diesel prices are compounding pressure on farm operations and broader food inflation.• See the Fertilizer section for more on this topic, including why President Trump cannot simply suspend Moroccan duties. Industrial supply chains under pressure• Damage to Qatar’s gas facilities is also constraining helium production, a critical input for semiconductor manufacturing.• With Qatar the world’s No. 2 helium supplier, shortages could ripple through AI-driven chip demand, potentially disrupting production of everything from vehicles to consumer appliances — echoing the 2021 chip shortage. Macro outlook: slower growth, stickier inflation• Wall Street economists and the Federal Reserve are increasingly factoring in:Higher inflation forecastsWeaker GDP growthSoftening consumer spending• Oxford Economics now projects U.S. real consumer spending growth at just 1.9% in 2026, marking the slowest pace in over a decade outside the pandemic. Bottom Line: Even if hostilities ease, the shift from temporary logistics disruptions to structural supply damage suggests the Iran war could leave a multi-year imprint on energy markets, agriculture, and global inflation dynamics — with the second-half U.S. economic outlook hinging on how much infrastructure loss proves permanent. —U.S. escalates military and economic measures to reopen Strait of HormuzExpanded strikes on Iranian assets coincide with emergency sanctions relief to stabilize global energy markets The United States is intensifying its campaign to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, broadening air and naval strikes against Iranian military and infrastructure targets as disruptions to one of the world’s most critical energy corridors continue to rattle global markets. U.S. warplanes and attack helicopters have expanded operations in and around the Persian Gulf, targeting Iranian assets believed to be involved in attacks on commercial shipping and energy infrastructure. The objective is increasingly clear — to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten maritime traffic through the strait, which handles roughly 20% of global oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas flows. The stepped-up military push comes as energy markets remain under severe strain. Oil prices held elevated levels Friday, reflecting both physical supply disruptions and the growing risk premium tied to prolonged instability in the region. Analysts note that even partial interruptions in Hormuz traffic are enough to tighten global supply balances, particularly as spare production capacity remains limited. In parallel with military actions, the U.S. Treasury Department has taken the unusual step of temporarily lifting sanctions on Iranian oil cargoes already at sea. The move is designed as a short-term pressure valve to prevent further tightening in global crude supplies, allowing those shipments to reach buyers and inject additional barrels into the market. The dual-track strategy — military escalation alongside targeted sanctions relief — underscores the complexity of the current crisis. While Washington is seeking to neutralize Iran’s capacity to disrupt shipping lanes, it is simultaneously attempting to prevent a full-blown energy shock that could reverberate through inflation, fuel costs, and global economic growth. The situation remains highly fluid. Any sustained disruption to Hormuz traffic risks cascading effects across oil, LNG, fertilizer, and broader commodity markets, with downstream implications for agriculture, transportation, and industrial production worldwide. —Canada signals resource leverage in U.S. tariff fightPoilievre argues oil and critical minerals give Ottawa strategic bargaining power with Washington Canada’s Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is making the case that Ottawa holds underappreciated leverage in its trade dispute with the United States, pointing to the country’s dominant role in supplying oil and critical minerals as key tools to push for tariff relief and deeper economic ties. He made the comments in an interview with Bloomberg This Weekend anchor David Gura. Poilievre emphasized that Canada supplies significantly more oil to the U.S. than any other country — roughly ten times more than Mexico — arguing that this alone gives Canada influence over U.S. energy costs and supply stability. He suggested that preferential access to Canadian resources could be used as an incentive for freer trade arrangements. Beyond energy, he highlighted Canada’s reserves of critical minerals essential for defense systems and advanced manufacturing, framing them as strategically valuable in an era of geopolitical conflict and supply chain realignment. However, Poilievre stopped short of advocating retaliatory tariffs. Instead, he stressed a cooperative approach — leveraging economic integration, shared security interests, and what he described as strong “goodwill” between Americans and Canadians to resolve trade tensions. His comments come as President Donald Trump continues to press a hardline trade agenda, including tariffs aimed at reshoring manufacturing. Poilievre argued that his strategy could align with U.S. priorities by supporting domestic production while ensuring access to reliable Canadian inputs. He also floated the idea of Canada establishing a strategic petroleum reserve — potentially on the order of 100 million barrels — to further enhance its geopolitical and economic relevance, particularly amid ongoing conflict involving Iran and global energy disruptions. Politically, the remarks reflect a shift in Poilievre’s strategy following a tighter domestic race against Prime Minister Mark Carney, as he expands his focus beyond cost-of-living issues to include trade and international economic positioning. Bottom Line: Canada is signaling it may pivot from a defensive tariff posture to a resource-based strategy — using energy and minerals as leverage to reshape its trade relationship with the U.S. while aligning with broader supply chain and security priorities. Perspective from a Canadian contact: “In my opinion this is more of a pivot for Pierre than Canada itself. What he is saying now is correct and falls in line with a more cooperative economic approach between USMCA members. This is critical for all three countries.  Mexico and Canada seem onboard while the White House does not.” —Musk offers to cover TSA pay during shutdownBillionaire says he would fund frontline airport security workers as unpaid TSA staff call out and long security lines worsen during the federal funding lapse  Elon Musk said Saturday that he would personally cover the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees during the government shutdown, casting the offer to ease mounting airport disruptions and support workers missing paychecks. In a post on X, the Tesla and SpaceX chief said he wanted to “pay the salaries of TSA personnel” during the funding impasse, arguing that the shutdown is hurting travelers across the country. The offer comes as growing numbers of TSA employees reportedly call out from work because they are not being paid, contributing to longer security lines and broader airport delays. Musk’s proposal, while unprecedented, would likely face significant legal and logistical hurdles. Federal payroll systems, ethics rules, and appropriations law generally prohibit private individuals from directly compensating government employees. TSA agents, classified as essential personnel, are required to work without pay during shutdowns, but financial strain has historically led to higher call-out rates. The resulting staffing shortages are already translating into delays at major U.S. airports, raising concerns about travel bottlenecks and broader economic spillovers. Under federal law, government workers are entitled to back pay once a shutdown ends. But in the meantime, the missed paychecks are creating immediate financial strain for many TSA employees, raising concerns about staffing shortages at airport checkpoints during one of the most visible consequences of the funding standoff.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities Friday and weekly change: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  March 20	Point Difference  from March 19	% Difference  from March 19	Weekly Change
Dow	45,577.47	-443.96	-0.96%	-2.11%
Nasdaq	21,647.61	-443.08	-2.01%	-2.07%
S&P 500	6,506.48	-100.01	-1.51%	-1.90%

—Dimon’s endgame: JPMorgan’s CEO plots next moves amid mounting challenges

Barron’s profile highlights leadership transition, strategic expansion, and rising competitive and political pressures

A new profile (link) in Barron’s by Andy Serwer and Rebecca Ungarino paints a comprehensive picture of Jamie Dimon as he enters what could be the final stretch of his tenure atop JPMorgan Chase — even as the bank faces one of its most complex operating environments in decades.

Dimon, who recently marked 20 years as CEO and turned 70, says he intends to remain in the role for another three to four years, “board willing,” while acknowledging the inevitability of succession planning. Internally, top contenders include consumer banking chief Marianne Lake, alongside senior executives Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh.

A legacy of dominance — and rising expectations. Under Dimon’s leadership, JPMorgan has delivered outsized performance. Since 2006, the bank’s stock has surged 626%, significantly outpacing both the S&P 500 and banking peers. The firm now boasts a roughly $777 billion market value — larger than its three legacy rivals combined — and generated $57 billion in profit in 2025 alone.

But the next phase may be harder. Dimon’s central challenge is no longer building dominance — it’s sustaining it. The bank is navigating:

• Intensifying competition across fintech, private credit, and payments

• Political friction, including a lawsuit from President Donald Trump

• Technological disruption, particularly from AI

• Elevated geopolitical risk, including Middle East instability

• Internal pressure to identify a successor without disrupting momentum

Strategy: scale, technology, and global expansion. JPMorgan’s approach remains consistent — leverage its scale as a “one-stop shop” across consumer, corporate, and wealth businesses — but execution is evolving.

Executives emphasized several growth pillars:

•Technology investment: A projected $20 billion annual tech budget, including AI tools that can automate complex tasks like IPO filings

• Global expansion: Targeting markets such as Japan, Turkey, and the Middle East

•Wealth and asset management growth: Expanding internationally and in private markets

• Selective M&A: Remaining opportunistic while prioritizing organic growth

Dimon himself framed competition bluntly as “trench warfare,” underscoring the intensity of market share battles across trading, lending, and advisory services.

Succession looms over the narrative. Despite strong performance, the question of “what comes after Dimon” dominates investor attention. Dimon confirmed the next CEO will come from within but declined to specify whether a final decision has been made.

The board, he noted, actively reviews both near-term contingency plans and longer-term succession scenarios — a sign of how central the issue has become to JPMorgan’s outlook.

The Bottom Line: The Barron’s profile underscores a core tension: JPMorgan remains the most dominant franchise in global banking, but its future hinges on whether its culture, scale, and execution can outlast its defining leader. As Dimon put it, the bank’s advantage isn’t just size — it’s institutional discipline: “We are devoted. We will do what it takes. It’s about the culture.” For now, Dimon is still in charge — but the transition era has clearly begun.

—Powell channels Volcker as Fed independence faces political pressure

Fed chair signals willingness to stay on past term amid stalled nomination, rising inflation outlook, and intensifying White House criticism

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell invoked the legacy of former Chair Paul Volcker on Saturday, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence and resistance to political pressure at a moment when the Fed faces renewed scrutiny from President Donald Trump and rising inflation risks.

Speaking while accepting the Paul Volcker Public Integrity Award, Powell praised Volcker’s aggressive fight against double-digit inflation in the early 1980s — even as it triggered a recession and sharp political backlash. He framed that period as a model for modern policymakers confronting similar pressures. “His willingness to resist short-term pressures in the interest of achieving lasting price stability demonstrated the courage and long-term perspective that define principled public service,” Powell said.

“Our integrity is all we have.”

Fed independence in the spotlight. Powell’s remarks come as tensions with the Trump administration escalate. The president has repeatedly criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates, while a Justice Department investigation into Powell — tied to testimony about the Fed’s headquarters renovation — has further heightened concerns about political interference.

Of note: Although a federal judge recently dismissed subpoenas tied to the probe, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro has indicated plans to appeal, prolonging the legal uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, Powell signaled he is prepared to remain in place beyond his May 15 term expiration if the Senate fails to confirm a successor. Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee amid bipartisan resistance, including opposition from Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who has vowed to block action until the investigation is dropped.

Powell also made clear he intends to remain on the Fed’s Board of Governors — where his term runs through January 2028 — until the investigation concludes.

Inflation fight enters a new phase. While Powell drew parallels to Volcker, the current inflation battle has taken a different trajectory. After initially lagging in response to the post-pandemic surge, the Fed raised rates aggressively, bringing inflation down from above 9% to roughly 2.5% without triggering a recession.

However, progress is now stalling. At its March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee held rates steady for the second time this year in an 11–1 vote, while revising its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%. The shift reflects emerging supply-side pressures — particularly from the Iran war — that are complicating the Fed’s path back to its 2% target.

Legacy and leadership. Powell’s speech underscores how his tenure may ultimately be judged — not just on inflation outcomes, but on his defense of institutional independence during a period of intense political and geopolitical strain. The Volcker award, alongside a forthcoming John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award, reinforces that narrative: a central banker navigating the intersection of inflation control, political pressure, and global economic shocks — with echoes of one of the Fed’s most consequential eras.

WAR WITH IRAN

—Energy shock hits poor nations hardest as Gulf War strains global markets

The Economist analysis finds Pakistan, Egypt, and Jordan among most vulnerable as rising import costs and weak financial buffers heighten crisis risk

The escalating conflict in the Gulf — and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz — is triggering a severe energy shock across developing economies, with the poorest countries facing the greatest risk of macroeconomic crisis, according to an analysis (link) by The Economist.

Across South Asia and beyond, governments are already taking emergency measures. Nepal is rationing cooking gas, Sri Lanka is shutting businesses midweek to conserve fuel, and Pakistan has closed schools while shifting universities online — early signs of systemic strain as energy supplies tighten and prices surge.

Exposure meets weak buffers. The Economist ranks countries based on two key vulnerabilities:

• Exposure to imported energy, particularly from the Middle East

• Capacity to absorb shocks, including foreign-exchange reserves and fiscal flexibility

Countries that score poorly on both metrics face the greatest danger. Pakistan and Egypt stand out as particularly at risk:

•Pakistan spends about 4% of GDP on oil and gas imports, with nearly 90% sourced from the Middle East

•Egypt spends roughly 3% of GDP, with about half its supply tied to the region

•Both rely heavily on remittances from Gulf workers (5–6% of GDP), which could decline if the conflict disrupts labor markets

As energy prices rise, these economies face a dual squeeze: higher import bills and weakening inflows of foreign currency. That combination widens current-account deficits, pressures currencies, and raises the local cost of dollar-denominated fuel — a feedback loop that can quickly spiral into crisis.

Limited financial firepower. The situation is compounded by weak financial buffers:

•Pakistan’s reserves cover less than three months of imports, below IMF recommendations

• Egypt faces $29 billion in external debt payments this year, exceeding half its reserves

With global investors already pulling funds from emerging markets, access to external financing is tightening — increasing the likelihood that energy shocks translate into full-blown balance-of-payments crises.

Other vulnerable economies. Several additional countries face elevated risk:

•Bangladesh: Low reserves and heavy reliance on energy-intensive garment exports

•Sri Lanka: Still recovering from its 2022 default triggered by a similar energy shock

• Jordan: Highly exposed but potentially supported by Western and Gulf allies

Some countries better positioned. Not all emerging markets are equally exposed:

•Thailand imports large amounts of energy but holds strong reserves and strategic oil stocks

•India benefits from diversified supply options, including discounted Russian crude, and maintains robust reserves covering about seven months of imports

These buffers provide time — though not immunity — from sustained price shocks.

Beyond financial crisis: a humanitarian threat. Even where macroeconomic collapse is avoided, the humanitarian consequences could be severe. Rising natural gas prices are pushing up the cost of nitrogen fertilizer, increasing food production costs across developing economies.

The World Food Program warns that global hunger could reach record levels in 2026 if the conflict persists — underscoring that stabilizing currencies and financing imports may not be enough to prevent widespread hardship.

Bottom Line: The Economist concludes that this energy shock — like previous ones — disproportionately burdens poorer nations. But with tighter global financial conditions, heavier debt loads, and deeper reliance on imported energy, the current crisis could prove even more destabilizing than past shocks.

AG MARKETS

—Cattle on Feed report tightens slightly as placements rise

USDA data points to near-term supply pressure but hints at longer-term herd rebuilding dynamics

USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report (link) shows a mixed but market-relevant signal for the U.S. cattle sector. As of March 1, cattle on feed totaled slightly below year-ago levels (down 0.3%), while February placements increased and marketings declined compared to the same period in 2025.

Market implications

1. Near-term supply remains tight — supportive for cattle prices

The modest year-over-year decline in cattle on feed reinforces the broader narrative of historically tight U.S. cattle supplies. Combined with lower February marketings, fewer animals are moving through feedlots into slaughter channels in the short run.

•This is bullish for live cattle and feeder cattle futures, as packers compete for limited supply.

•Wholesale beef prices are likely to remain firm, especially if demand holds steady into grilling season.

2. Higher placements signal future supply relief

The increase in February placements introduces a more forward-looking dynamic:

• More cattle entering feedlots now will translate into higher market-ready supplies later in 2026 (typically 5–7 months out).

• This creates a potential softening pressure on deferred cattle contracts, particularly late summer and fall.

3. Feedlot margins and weight dynamics matter

Lower marketings may also reflect:

• Feedlots holding cattle longer to add weight amid strong price incentives

• Or weather/logistics disruptions slowing throughput

Heavier carcass weights could partially offset tight headcounts, moderating beef supply constraints at the margin.

4. Signals on herd cycle remain mixed

The uptick in placements raises an important question:

• Is this early herd expansion or simply front-loaded placements due to weather or timing shifts?

Given ongoing drought risks in parts of the Southern Plains and high input costs, the data does not yet confirm a sustained herd rebuild. That keeps the broader supply outlook structurally tight.

Broader ag and macro tie-ins

•Beef inflation risk: Tight supplies alongside strong consumer demand could keep beef prices elevated, feeding into broader food inflation concerns.

•Feed demand: Higher placements support near-term demand for corn and soybean meal, offering marginal support to feed grain markets.

•Trade dynamics: Elevated U.S. beef prices could temper export competitiveness, while incentivizing imports from countries like Brazil and Australia.

Bottom Line: This report reinforces a two-speed cattle market:

• Short-term bullishness driven by tight inventories and slower marketings

• Medium-term caution as higher placements point to increased supply later in the year

For producers and traders, the key will be whether placements continue to rise in coming months — confirming herd rebuilding — or prove to be a temporary spike in an otherwise supply-constrained cycle.

—Russia’s Siberian cattle outbreak raises disease and trade concerns

Mass culling, conflicting diagnoses, and export risks emerge as officials cite multiple illnesses

Russia is battling a worsening cattle outbreak in Siberia, with authorities attributing it to pasteurellosis and rabies but acknowledging additional, unspecified illnesses are complicating the situation (Reuters, Gleb Bryanski).

Thousands of animals have been culled, sparking rare farmer protests. Officials say a mutated, more aggressive strain of pasteurellosis is driving the outbreak and necessitating rapid herd destruction.

However, a USDA (FAS) report raised concerns that the scale of the response could indicate an unconfirmed case of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) — a claim Russia strongly denies.

The distinction is critical: confirmation of FMD would threaten Russia’s recently acquired disease-free status and disrupt export ambitions. Authorities have already restricted livestock exports across 15 regions.

Bottom Line: Even without confirmed FMD, the scale of culling and uncertainty around the outbreak pose risks to Russia’s cattle sector and broader global trade flows.

—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:

Commodity	Contract Month	Closing Price March 20	Change from March 19	Weekly Change
Corn	May	$4.65 1/2	-4 1/4 cents	-1 3/4 cents
Soybeans	May	$11.61 1/4	-7 1/4 cents	-48 cents
Soybean Meal	May	$328.00	-$4.50	+$5.30
Soybean Oil	May	65.51 cents	+10 points	-193 points
SRW Wheat	May	$5.95 1/4	-12 3/4 cents	-18 1/2 cents
HRW Wheat	May	$6.06 1/4	-21 cents	-23 3/4 cents
Spring Wheat	May	$6.28	-15 3/4 cents	-17 1/2 cents
Cotton	May	67.31 cents	-36 points	+146 points
Live Cattle	April	$234.05	+$0.775	+$4.00
Feeder Cattle	May	$346.375	+$2.95	+$7.20
Lean Hogs	April	$91.275	-$0.775	-$2.175

FARM POLICY

—Canada expands farm aid as Iran war drives input cost surge

Ottawa deploys credit relief and loan flexibility as fertilizer and energy disruptions squeeze producers ahead of planting season

Canada is moving to cushion its agricultural sector from the economic fallout of the Iran war, offering new financial support to farmers, agribusinesses, and food companies grappling with sharply higher input costs.

Through its federally backed lender, Farm Credit Canada, borrowers can now access expanded relief measures — including new or increased credit lines of up to C$500,000 (about $365,000 U.S.), deferred principal payments, and more flexible loan terms.

The support comes via an expansion of Canada’s Trade Disruption Customer Support Program, originally launched in March 2025 to offset damage from U.S. tariffs. The program is now being broadened to address “unexpected market shocks,” with a clear focus on the ripple effects from the Iran conflict.

Fertilizer shock at the center. The policy response is being driven by a sharp escalation in fertilizer and energy prices, which have surged since the war began in late February. A key factor has been the disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global exports of urea and sulfur — both essential crop nutrients.

With supplies constrained, fertilizer costs have spiked globally, hitting farmers just weeks before the Northern Hemisphere planting season. That timing is especially problematic, as producers typically lock in input purchases during this window, limiting their ability to adjust.

Credit support over direct subsidies. Rather than direct payments, Canada’s approach emphasizes liquidity and balance-sheet support — giving producers breathing room to manage higher costs and volatile markets.

•Expanded operating credit lines

•Loan repayment deferrals

•Adjusted financing terms

The strategy reflects a broader effort to stabilize farm operations without immediately increasing fiscal outlays, while still ensuring producers can maintain planting plans.

Global implications. The move underscores how the Iran war is extending beyond energy markets into global agricultural supply chains. Fertilizer disruptions tied to Gulf shipping constraints are now feeding directly into farm-level economics — raising the risk of tighter margins, reduced application rates, and potential yield impacts later in the year.

With planting season underway, Canada’s intervention highlights growing concern that input inflation — not just commodity prices — may become the defining agricultural risk of 2026.

FERTILIZER

—Fertilizer shock deepens as war threatens phosphate supply chain

Bloomberg: Rising sulfur disruptions and trade barriers tighten global fertilizer markets — with limited policy flexibility for the U.S.

The war in the Middle East is rapidly expanding from a nitrogen fertilizer shock into a broader crisis for phosphate markets, raising concerns about input costs, food inflation, and U.S. farm profitability, Bloomberg reports.

While early disruptions centered on urea, attention is now shifting to phosphate fertilizers — critical for crops like corn and soybeans — as sulfur supply constraints intensify. Nearly half of the world’s sulfur, a key input for phosphate production, comes from the Middle East, leaving the market highly exposed to continued conflict and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts warn the effects could become “exponential” as inventories are depleted, compounding an already tight market shaped by Chinese export restrictions, reduced Russian supply, and strong global demand.

For U.S. agriculture, the stakes are significant: roughly 80% of domestic phosphorus use goes into corn and soybean production, meaning sustained price increases directly impact both feed and biofuel supply chains.

— Moroccan fertilizer duties: why Trump cannot simply suspend them As fertilizer prices rise, U.S. farm groups — including the American Farm Bureau Federation — are urging the Trump administration to suspend duties on Moroccan phosphate imports to ease supply pressure. However, President Trump cannot unilaterally suspend these duties for several key legal and procedural reasons:Trade remedy origin (Commerce + ITC process) The duties on Moroccan phosphate stem from a formal countervailing duty investigation initiated in 2021 at the request of Mosaic Co. and administered by the Commerce Department, with injury findings by the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC). Statutory constraints Once imposed, these duties are governed by U.S. trade law — meaning they cannot simply be waived by presidential directive. Any change must follow: A formal administrative review by Commerce Or a sunset/reconsideration process involving both Commerce and the ITC Active review process underway The duties are currently under review, with domestic producers like Mosaic and JR Simplot participating — reinforcing that the outcome must come through regulatory procedure, not executive action. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said the review and subsequent decision will come late summer, early fall. Domestic industry protections The duties were designed to protect U.S. producers from subsidized imports. Removing them without process could face legal challenges from domestic industry stakeholders and violate trade law obligations.  Bottom Line: The fertilizer market is tightening at precisely the wrong moment for U.S. producers — with war-driven sulfur disruptions colliding with structural supply constraints and trade barriers. Even as pressure mounts to open Moroccan supply, policy flexibility is limited: the Trump administration cannot simply suspend duties, leaving farmers exposed to higher input costs in the near term while regulatory reviews play out.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Friday: oil prices surge to four-year high as Middle East disruptions intensify

Iraq force majeure and escalating U.S./Iran tensions drive fears of prolonged supply shortages

Oil markets rallied sharply Friday, with crude prices closing at their highest levels in nearly four years amid deepening geopolitical instability and mounting supply risks across the Middle East.

Brent crude for May delivery settled at $112.19 per barrel, rising $3.54 (3.26%) and marking its strongest close since mid-2022.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery — expiring Friday — ended at $98.32, up $2.18 (2.27%), while the more active second-month contract climbed to $98.23. Intraday, Brent briefly surged more than $4.

On a weekly basis, Brent gained 8.8%, reflecting sustained bullish momentum, while front-month WTI edged down 0.4%, as its discount to Brent widened earlier in the week to the largest level in over a decade.

Supply shocks intensify market pressure. The latest surge follows Iraq’s declaration of force majeure on oilfields operated by foreign companies—effectively signaling disruptions to production and exports. This development compounds a broader pattern of attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the region, reinforcing expectations of tighter global supply.

Analysts increasingly believe outages could persist for an extended period, particularly as damage to production facilities may delay any meaningful recovery in output.

Strait of Hormuz risks dominate outlook. A key driver of market anxiety remains the uncertain status of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Prospects for a near-term reopening have dimmed, with traders pricing in continued disruptions to maritime transit.

Escalating conflict between Israel and Iran — alongside strikes affecting major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait — has further heightened concerns about supply security and regional stability.

U.S. policy adds to uncertainty. The United States is preparing to deploy additional Marines and naval assets to the region, signaling a potential escalation in its military posture. At the same time, policymakers are weighing competing measures:

• Potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil cargoes, which could return some supply to global markets within days

• Additional releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the coming months

• New pressure tactics on Iran, which could further constrain exports

Taken together, these crosscurrents are amplifying volatility, leaving markets caught between limited near-term supply relief and the growing risk of deeper, longer-lasting disruptions.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

—Egg-spensive Easter: falling cocoa prices fail to ease candy costs

Retail chocolate prices remain elevated as manufacturers work through high-cost inventories, with relief unlikely until later in 2026

Despite a sharp drop in cocoa prices, U.S. consumers will see little relief on chocolate bunnies and Easter eggs this spring — highlighting the lag between commodity markets and grocery store shelves.

According to a Reuters report by Marcelo Teixeira, cocoa futures have fallen more than 70% from their late-2024 peak, driven by improved production and industry adjustments such as smaller package sizes and increased use of substitute ingredients. However, those declines have yet to translate into lower retail prices.

The key reason: timing. Candy manufacturers typically purchase cocoa months in advance and hedge their exposure, meaning this year’s Easter chocolate was largely produced when cocoa prices were still near record highs. As a result, prices for Easter treats are expected to remain at — or slightly above — Valentine’s Day levels.

David Branch of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute explained that companies are still working through higher-cost inventories, keeping retail prices “sticky” despite falling input costs.

Relief may be on the horizon, but not immediately. Analysts expect lower cocoa prices to begin filtering into retail products by mid-2026, potentially in time for the Halloween season.

In the meantime, consumer demand remains strong. Easter is a smaller confectionery holiday compared to Halloween and winter holidays, but it is highly chocolate-centric — with about 90% of Easter baskets including chocolate, according to industry data. Total U.S. spending on Easter candy is projected to reach $3.3 billion this year.

Bottom Line: even as commodity markets cool, shoppers are still paying peak-cycle prices — a reminder that food inflation often lags well behind raw material declines.

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

—Trump threatens to deploy ICE to airports amid DHS funding standoff

Escalating shutdown fight strains TSA staffing as Democrats and Republicans clash over immigration policy and security funding

President Donald Trump warned Saturday that he may deploy U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to handle airport security if Democrats do not agree to a funding deal to reopen the partially shuttered Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

The threat comes as the Senate remains deadlocked, with Democrats rejecting White House proposals they say fail to curb ICE enforcement tactics, particularly following controversial immigration operations in Minnesota.

Trump indicated ICE agents could be reassigned as early as next week to perform screening functions and enforce immigration laws at airports, escalating tensions in an already fraught shutdown battle.

Meanwhile, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has become a central pressure point. Staffing shortages are worsening as unpaid workers call out sick or resign, leading to longer airport wait times and growing travel disruptions nationwide.

Democrats, led by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), are pushing for a standalone vote to fully fund TSA operations, while Republicans have blocked those efforts, tying funding to broader immigration disputes.

Adding to the unusual dynamics, Elon Musk has offered to temporarily cover TSA worker salaries during the shutdown, though legal and logistical questions remain unresolved (see related item in Up Front Blue Box above).

The standoff underscores how immigration policy, federal workforce disruptions, and national security concerns are converging — with airports emerging as the most visible flashpoint in the broader DHS funding crisis.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Record-breaking heat wave continues in the West and intensifies in the central U.S. today… …Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions for portions of the Four Corners region, central and southern Rockies, and Great Plains… …Wintry weather expected from the northern Great Lakes to New England.