Perspective on EPA’s E15 Announcement: Limited Impact
Anticipation builds for EPA’s next announcement on RFS Set 2 details
| LINKS |
Link: Subject Trump: Xi Summit Reset for Mid-May as
Trade Agenda Takes Shape
Link: USDA Lifts Food Inflation Outlook Above Long-Term Norms
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 26, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
Top Stories
Note: The White House “Great American Agriculture Celebration” on Friday, March 27, begins at 12:30 pm. ET.
— OECD: U.S. inflation to hit 4.2% on energy shock as Iran war drives price surge — OECD warns Iran-driven energy disruptions will push U.S. inflation to the highest in the G7, reinforcing stagflation risks and delaying Fed easing.
— RFS Set 2 decision imminent as White House event nears — Final biofuels rule expected Friday with key uncertainty around biodiesel volumes, SRE reallocations, and imported feedstock RIN values.
— Trump/Xi summit shortened, still at risk of further delay amid Iran war — Planned May summit scaled back and remains vulnerable as Middle East conflict clouds timing and expectations.
— Trump’s Taiwan ambiguity tests longstanding U.S. deterrence — Wall Street Journal reports Xi sees opportunity to reshape U.S. Taiwan policy as Trump signals more transactional approach.
— Gas prices surge toward $4 — geopolitics, refining disruptions drive new spike — Iran conflict and refinery outages tighten supply, pushing fuel prices higher with risk of further escalation.
— U.S./China counternarcotics cooperation deepens ahead of Trump/Xi summit — Rare law enforcement coordination on fentanyl signals limited but meaningful bilateral cooperation despite broader tensions.
— Iran war enters fourth week with no off-ramp in sight — Continued strikes, stalled diplomacy, and rising oil shock scenarios deepen global economic and geopolitical risks.
Financial Markets
— Equities today — Stocks weaker as ceasefire hopes stall; markets remain highly sensitive to Iran headlines and oil price direction.
— Equities yesterday — Gains moderated as oil rebounded; small caps led with strong weekly momentum.
— JBS profit stalls as U.S. cattle costs squeeze margins despite record revenue — Tight cattle supplies and rising costs pressure margins despite strong global demand.
— Bessent eyes Fed overhaul modeled on Bank of England — Treasury signals push to limit Fed crisis powers and increase coordination with fiscal policy.
— U.S. secures first Venezuelan gold shipment in two decades as investment push expands — $100M transfer highlights rapid expansion of U.S. economic engagement in Venezuela.
— Supreme Court sides with internet providers in major copyright case — Unanimous ruling shields ISPs from liability tied to user piracy.
— Juries deliver twin blows to big tech over youth harm claims — Meta and YouTube face growing legal exposure over addictive design and child safety failures.
Ag Markets
— Modest U.S. ag export sales to China continue — Weekly data shows limited new demand, with activity largely shifting from unknown destinations.
— China moves toward higher tariffs on Australian beef imports — Imports nearing quota trigger point, with 55% tariffs set to apply above limits.
— Brazil soybean exports surge past 16 MMT in March as harvest gains momentum — Strong demand and harvest progress reinforce Brazil’s global dominance.
— China hog glut deepens as prices hit 16-year low — Oversupply drives pork prices below cost, pressuring producers and feed demand.
— Agriculture markets yesterday — Broad commodity rally led by soy complex on Trump/Xi optimism and biofuel policy expectations.
— Grain and livestock markets rally on Trump/Xi summit confirmation — Trade optimism and RFS anticipation lift grains; livestock lags.
Farm Policy
— USDA specialty crop payments face precision challenge on input costs — Flat payment rates risk missing large cost differences across production systems.
— Shaheen introduces crop insurance reform bill targeting subsidy caps — Politico reports proposal faces long odds despite targeting large farm subsidies and insurer payments.
Fertilizer
— Russia gains fertilizer windfall as Iran war tightens global supply — Gulf disruptions boost Russian market share and drive 30–40% price increases.
Energy Markets & Policy
— Thursday: Oil rebounds as Middle East conflict risks tighten global supply — Prices rise as supply disruptions outweigh bearish inventory data.
— Wednesday: Oil slips as diplomacy tempers gains amid persistent supply shock — Volatility remains elevated as markets balance ceasefire hopes with supply risks.
— EPA issues nationwide E15 summer waiver — industry pushes Congress for permanent fix — Temporary action supports fuel supply and ethanol demand but highlights infrastructure and policy gaps.
— EPA removes barriers to E10 nationwide — Streamlined fuel standards improve distribution flexibility but have limited overall market impact.
Trade Policy
— EU advances U.S. trade deal after Greenland standoff — Parliament moves forward with safeguards to protect against future U.S. tariff actions.
— White House moves to rebuild tariff regime after Supreme Court setback — Navarro signals shift to Section 232/301 with 15% global tariff still in process.
Congress
— Valadao joins House Ag Committee, restoring GOP California representation — Thompson adds California dairy farmer to fill LaMalfa vacancy.
— Bipartisan push targets political betting by lawmakers — New bill aims to curb prediction-market trading, though past efforts have stalled.
— MAHA Surgeon General nominee faces GOP resistance — Casey Means lacks sufficient Republican support, putting confirmation at risk.
— Bipartisan Senate deal targets $35 insulin cap nationwide — Lawmakers seek to expand insulin price caps beyond Medicare through new pilot.
Politics & Elections
— Massie’s defiance of Trump sets stage for high-stakes GOP primary fight — Kentucky race becomes test of party loyalty vs. independence.
Weather
— NWS outlook: Heat, storms, and sharp temperature swings ahead — Midwest heat, severe storms, and weekend cold snap expected across central and eastern U.S.
TOP STORIES — OECD: U.S. inflation to hit 4.2% on energy shock as Iran war drives price surgeMiddle East conflict pushes American inflation to highest in G7, with energy markets at the center The OECD is warning that U.S. inflation will surge to roughly 4.2% in 2026, driven primarily by an energy shock tied to the escalating war involving Iran, according to reporting cited by the Financial Times and confirmed in updated economic forecasts. The Paris-based organization said the conflict is disrupting global oil flows — particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint — sending energy prices sharply higher and feeding directly into consumer prices. As a result, U.S. inflation is expected to be the highest among G7 economies, a notable reversal after earlier disinflation trends and a key signal that the energy shock is disproportionately hitting the U.S. economy. The OECD also lifted its broader inflation outlook, projecting G20 inflation around 4.0% in 2026, up significantly from prior expectations, underscoring the global nature of the shock. The inflation spike reflects a classic energy transmission channel: higher crude and refined fuel costs feeding into transportation, food, and input prices, with additional pressure from supply chain disruptions tied to the conflict. Meanwhile, the OECD expects U.S. growth to slow modestly — from about 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027 — highlighting emerging stagflation risks as inflation accelerates while economic momentum softens. U.S. interest rate impact. The outlook reinforces growing concerns among policymakers and markets that energy-driven inflation could delay or derail Federal Reserve rate cuts, particularly if oil prices remain elevated or spike further amid prolonged geopolitical instability. Bottom Line: the OECD’s warning aligns with broader market fears — the Iran war is no longer just an energy story, but a macro inflation shock, with the U.S. now positioned at the top of the developed-world inflation rankings.  — RFS Set 2 decision imminent as White House event nearsFinal rule expected Friday, with biodiesel volumes, SRE reallocations, and imported feedstock treatment in focus Anticipation is building ahead of a White House event Friday (March 27), where the Trump administration is expected to formally unveil the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Set 2 final rule, a closely watched policy decision with major implications for biofuels, refining, and agricultural markets. The rule has undergone extensive interagency review, with 21 stakeholder meetings held at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), including a final session scheduled with Diamond Pet Food. Despite the high level of engagement, there have been few substantive leaks, adding to market uncertainty ahead of the announcement. Earlier reporting from Reuters suggests the final rule may be “little changed” from the EPA’s mid-2025 proposal, though key provisions remain under scrutiny. Central to the debate is the final biomass-based biodiesel volume mandate, particularly whether EPA maintains the proposed sizable increase — a critical driver for soybean oil demand and renewable diesel economics. Another major issue is how the agency will handle Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) obligations waived under small refinery exemptions (SREs), including whether and how those volumes are reallocated across larger refiners. Market participants are also focused on EPA’s proposal to assign just 50% Renewable Identification Number (RIN) value to fuels produced from imported feedstocks such as used cooking oil (UCO), a move that could significantly reshape global feedstock flows and domestic crush incentives. With these unresolved questions, the final rule — expected to be released Friday — is likely to set the tone for biofuel markets, compliance costs, and agricultural demand heading into 2026. — Trump/Xi summit shortened, still at risk of further delay amid Iran warAnalysts warn timing remains uncertain as conflict clouds outlook and expectations are scaled back The planned May 14–15 summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is already being viewed as more limited in scope — and still vulnerable to further delay — as the Iran war continues to cast uncertainty over the timeline. Analysts emphasize that the newly scheduled trip is shorter than originally envisioned, signaling reduced expectations for major breakthroughs. One observer noted the condensed schedule “suggests more modest expectations,” reflecting both the compressed timeline and unresolved tensions heading into the meeting. Meanwhile, the summit’s viability remains closely tied to developments in the Middle East. Experts warned that if the conflict persists into mid-May — particularly if U.S. involvement escalates — it would be “hard to imagine” the meeting proceeding as planned. The uncertainty is compounded by the fact that Beijing has yet to formally confirm the dates, a deliberate approach that allows flexibility to postpone if conditions deteriorate or negotiations stall. Even the White House has acknowledged the fluid nature of the schedule in recent days, with officials previously signaling that timing could slip depending on both geopolitical developments and domestic priorities. Taken together, the shorter format and lack of firm bilateral confirmation underscore a central reality: while both sides see value in holding the summit, the Iran war remains the key variable — and could still force another reset of the diplomatic calendar. — Trump’s Taiwan ambiguity tests longstanding U.S. deterrenceWall Street Journal reports Xi Jinping sees an opening to reshape U.S. policy as Trump signals a more transactional approach ahead of a delayed summit A Wall Street Journal analysis (link) finds that Donald Trump’s less predictable and more transactional stance on Taiwan is creating what Xi Jinping views as a rare strategic opportunity to push for a shift in decades-old U.S. policy. Period of heightened uncertainty. The article details how U.S. policy toward Taiwan — long anchored in deterrence, strategic ambiguity, and carefully calibrated language — may be entering a period of heightened uncertainty. Xi is expected to test whether Trump is willing to soften key language around Taiwan independence and “peaceful resolution,” potentially replacing it with Beijing-preferred framing such as “peaceful reunification.” At the center of the dynamic is Trump’s history of treating Taiwan less as a security commitment and more as a negotiable asset. According to the report, Trump previously suggested he could help broker discussions between Beijing and Taiwan’s leadership — a proposal that surprised Chinese officials and broke with longstanding diplomatic norms. More recently, Trump has criticized Taiwan on trade grounds and declined to explicitly commit to its defense, reinforcing perceptions in Beijing that U.S. resolve may be negotiable. The upcoming Trump/Xi summit, now rescheduled for mid-May following delays tied to the Iran conflict, is expected to bring these tensions to the forefront. Trump is likely to focus on economic concessions — including increased Chinese purchases of U.S. commodities and industrial goods — while Xi is expected to pursue subtle but consequential shifts in U.S. Taiwan language and posture. The report highlights how even minor rhetorical changes could carry outsized geopolitical consequences. Moving from “does not support” to “opposes” Taiwanese independence, for example, would be viewed in Beijing as a major symbolic victory and could influence political sentiment within Taiwan itself. Complicating the picture, the Trump administration has already taken steps that signal flexibility, including pausing a major arms sale to Taiwan ahead of the summit. At the same time, official U.S. strategy documents have introduced nuanced language changes that some analysts interpret as weakening traditional guardrails around the status quo. Despite these signals, administration officials maintain that real-world deterrence — military posture and alliances — remains unchanged. Still, the article underscores growing concern among U.S. allies and policymakers that Taiwan could become a bargaining chip in broader U.S.-China negotiations. For Beijing, the timing is critical. Xi faces domestic economic pressures and has tied Taiwan’s “reunification” to his long-term political legacy, particularly ahead of key leadership milestones in 2027. For Washington, the challenge is balancing economic engagement with China against the risk of undermining a cornerstone of Indo-Pacific security. The result, as the Wall Street Journal frames it, is a potentially pivotal moment: a convergence of geopolitical ambition, strategic ambiguity, and transactional diplomacy that could redefine one of the world’s most sensitive flashpoints. — Gas prices surge toward $4 — geopolitics, refining disruptions drive new spikeCurrent price pressures echo past cycles, but today’s supply shocks differ sharply from Obama- and Biden-era dynamics U.S. gasoline prices are rapidly climbing toward $4 per gallon as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and domestic refining disruptions tighten fuel supplies, raising the risk of further increases in the near term. The national average reached roughly $3.98 per gallon this week, up more than $1 from last month, while diesel prices have surged above $5.30 per gallon. In high-cost states like California, prices are approaching $7 per gallon, underscoring the severity of regional supply constraints. The primary driver is the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has effectively disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint responsible for roughly 20% of global oil shipments. Meanwhile, a fire at a major Valero refinery in Texas has removed about 2% of U.S. refining capacity, compounding supply tightness. Market analysts warn that until shipping flows normalize, fuel markets will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with volatility likely to persist. Perspective: How this compares to the Obama and Biden eras. The current price spike shares similarities with past fuel cycles under Barack Obama and Joe Biden — but the underlying drivers are notably different. Obama administration (2009–2017)Gas prices during Obama’s presidency were largely driven by global demand growth and OPEC supply dynamics, not acute geopolitical chokepoints. Prices peaked above $4 per gallon around 2011–2012 due to strong global demand and unrest during the Arab Spring, but the U.S. was simultaneously experiencing a shale boom, which eventually pushed prices lower. By Obama’s second term, increased domestic production helped bring gasoline prices down significantly, often below $3. Biden administration (2021–2025)Under Biden, gasoline prices spiked sharply in 2022 — briefly exceeding $5 per gallon nationally — primarily due to the Russia-Ukraine war, post-COVID demand recovery, and constrained refining capacity. Unlike today, the U.S. government responded aggressively with Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, which helped ease crude prices and stabilize retail fuel costs. Inflation and supply chain disruptions also played a major role. Trump-era 2026 environment (current)The present surge is more directly tied to physical supply disruption risks than either prior period:• A potentially closed or restricted Strait of Hormuz creates immediate global supply uncertainty• Refining outages are tightening product markets (gasoline/diesel), not just crude• Markets are reacting in real time to military and diplomatic developments, creating sharper volatility Unlike the Obama shale expansion or the Biden SPR response, current conditions are being shaped by active conflict risk at a critical global energy chokepoint, which historically produces faster and more unpredictable price swings. Bottom Line: While U.S. drivers have faced high gasoline prices before, today’s environment stands out for its combination of geopolitical risk and infrastructure disruption. If the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained or tensions escalate, prices could exceed $4 nationally and remain elevated — not because of demand strength, but due to supply insecurity at the heart of global oil flows. — U.S./China counternarcotics cooperation deepens ahead of Trump/Xi summitNew indictments and reciprocal enforcement actions signal rare law enforcement alignment as leaders prepare to meet in Beijing May 14–15 U.S. and Chinese authorities are quietly expanding cooperation on fentanyl enforcement, even as broader geopolitical tensions persist ahead of a planned summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing, according to reporting and analysis from Sinocism’s Bill Bishop. The U.S. Department of Justice recently unsealed indictments against six Chinese nationals and two Chinese pharmaceutical firms, alleging their involvement in supplying precursor chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl, along with related money laundering conspiracies. Three of the defendants were also charged with attempting to provide material support to a Mexican drug cartel. Notably, the DOJ credited direct assistance from Chinese authorities — a relatively uncommon development in recent years. China’s Ministry of Public Security provided the Federal Bureau of Investigation with intelligence that helped advance the investigation into Shandong Believe Chemical Company and its network, according to the announcement. That cooperation appears to be reciprocal. Chinese officials recently disclosed arrests in Wuhan tied to fentanyl precursor crimes, noting that some suspects were identified through leads shared by U.S. counternarcotics authorities. Bishop highlighted the significance of these parallel actions, suggesting they reflect a functional — if narrow — channel of bilateral cooperation at a time when trade, security, and technology disputes continue to strain relations. Meanwhile, he pointed to subtle signaling differences in how U.S. officials refer to Xi. Trump has consistently used the title “President” in reference to Xi — the preferred diplomatic convention for bilateral engagements — while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has referred to Xi as “Party chair,” a formulation Bishop notes does not formally exist within China’s political system and may carry different connotations. Trump’s framing of the mid-May summit. Trump confirmed this week that he will meet Xi in Beijing on May 14–15, describing the talks as “historic visits” and emphasizing that preparations are underway between both governments. In public remarks and a Truth Social post, Trump said:• The meeting was rescheduled after being postponed due to U.S. military operations in Iran• He described Xi as “highly respected,” reinforcing a personal diplomacy tone that defined earlier engagements• U.S. and Chinese representatives are “finalizing preparations” for both the Beijing meeting and a planned reciprocal visit by Xi to Washington later this year The summit is expected to cover a wide range of issues, including trade tensions, supply chain realignment, fentanyl enforcement, and broader geopolitical coordination amid the Iran conflict. Tariffs and trade will most likely anchor the agenda. China is looking for lower levies, as well as access to advanced artificial intelligence chips, and Washington is eying, among other things, freer trade in rare earth minerals. Of note: “The prolongment of war with Iran will cause Trump to have to play a weaker hand with Beijing,” said Ryan Hass, a scholar at the Brookings Institution who was a career diplomat posted to China and a White House national security official. “He simply has less space to credibly threaten Beijing that he will escalate if his demands are not met.” Upshot: Taken together, the renewed counternarcotics coordination and the planned leader-level engagement suggest both sides are seeking targeted areas of cooperation — even as structural competition between Washington and Beijing remains firmly in place. — Iran war enters fourth week with no off-ramp in sightContinued strikes, stalled diplomacy, and rising oil shock scenarios signal deepening global risk • Fighting grinds on with no breakthrough: Military strikes between Iran and U.S.-aligned forces continue as the war enters its fourth week, with Tehran showing little indication of backing down. The status of any peace negotiations remains unclear, with conflicting signals on whether talks are even underway. • Israel says Iranian naval commander is killed in airstrike: Israel’s defense minister said that Alireza Tangsiri, a key player in Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, was dead. Iran has not commented on his condition. • Trump escalates warning to Iran: Donald Trump on Thursday urged Iran to “get serious soon, before it is too late,” warning that escalation could reach a point of “NO TURNING BACK” — underscoring a hardening U.S. posture as diplomatic options appear to narrow. • U.S. ceasefire framework gains little traction: Washington has floated a sweeping proposal that would require Iran to scale back its nuclear program and regional activities in exchange for sanctions relief, but Iranian officials continue to reject direct negotiations, limiting prospects for near-term de-escalation. • Iran lawmakers are working on a draft bill to impose safe passage toll for Strait of Hormuz. • Vice President JD Vance may travel to Pakistan for Iran talks this weekend, CNN reports. • Oil shock planning moves to forefront: Administration officials are now actively modeling extreme scenarios, including the possibility of oil reaching $200 per barrel, according to Bloomberg. While not a base-case forecast, the contingency planning reflects mounting concern over sustained supply disruptions. • Chokepoint risks intensify: Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — which typically handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows — continue to roil global markets. Iran has also threatened to expand the conflict to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, raising the prospect of a broader maritime crisis. • Iran is advancing a law to formalize charging ships a toll in exchange for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. • Global powers push diplomacy: China is calling for immediate peace talks, attempting to position itself as a stabilizing force, though its influence appears limited as hostilities persist. • Oil markets eye further upside risk: Crude prices have rebounded above $100 per barrel, with traders increasingly discussing $150+ scenarios as the conflict drags on and ceasefire optimism fades. • Spillover risks broaden: Beyond direct military conflict, the war is expanding into cyber operations, proxy activity, and global shipping disruptions — amplifying risks to trade flows, insurance markets, and inflation worldwide. • The U.S. is burning through munitions — an estimated $5.6 billion worth in the first two days of the war alone — and it could take years to replenish stockpiles. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
— Equities today: U.S. equity futures are moderately weaker on Iranian denial of any imminent peach talks to end the U.S./Iran war. Ceasefire hopes didn’t backtrack overnight, but they didn’t progress, either and that’s causing further giveback of this week’s rally. Today focus will stay on geo-politics and if cease-fire hopes fade further, oil will spike and stocks will drop, likely hard. Beyond geopolitics, we get weekly Jobless Claims (E: 210K) and several Fed speakers including: Cook (4:00 p.m. ET), Miran (6:30 p.m. ET), Jefferson (7:100 p.m. ET) and Barr (7:10 p.m. ET) but they are unlikely to move markets.
In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong -1.9%. China -1.1%. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.9%. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -1%.
— Equities yesterday: All three indexes were on pace for bigger gains earlier in the session in response to lower oil prices, but they pared those back slightly after oil prices ticked up in the afternoon. Small-caps had a big day. The Russell 2000 gained 1.2%, bringing the week’s gain to 4% — on track for notching the 10% increase the index needs to exit correction territory, which it entered on Friday.
| Equity Index | Closing Price March 25 | Point Change from March 24 | Percent Change |
| Dow Jones | 46,429.49 | +305.43 | +0.66% |
| Nasdaq | 21,929.83 | +167.93 | +0.77% |
| S&P 500 | 6,591.90 | +35.53 | +0.54% |
— JBS profit stalls as U.S. cattle costs squeeze margins despite record revenue
Strong global demand and record sales offset pressure from tight U.S. cattle supplies, rising logistics costs, and China trade limits
Brazil-based JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, reported largely flat fourth-quarter earnings as record revenues were offset by margin pressure — particularly in its key U.S. beef division.
The company posted net income of $415 million for the October–December period, up just 0.5% year over year and slightly below analyst expectations. The muted profit performance came despite a 15% surge in revenue to a record $23.06 billion, driven by strong sales in North America and Brazil.
U.S. cattle tightness drives margin pressure. JBS pointed to constrained U.S. cattle supplies as the primary headwind. Elevated livestock costs have compressed margins in its North American beef business — its largest segment — as the industry continues to operate through a downcycle in herd size.
CEO Gilberto Tomazoni told Reuters that conditions are unlikely to improve in the near term, warning that 2026 will remain a difficult year due to limited cattle availability. A labor strike at a Colorado facility has added further operational strain.
Despite these pressures, analysts noted the division performed better than expected. Firms including JPMorgan cited resilient U.S. beef demand and disciplined cost management, while Banco Santander highlighted the role of derivatives hedging in offsetting higher cattle prices.
Earnings mixed as costs rise. Adjusted EBITDA declined 7% to $1.72 billion, though it still topped forecasts. Margins fell to 7.4%, down 1.8 percentage points, reflecting cost pressures across the supply chain.
Meanwhile, JBS announced a dividend of $1 per share, signaling confidence in its cash flow despite margin compression.
Global pressures: logistics and China restrictions. Beyond cattle costs, JBS flagged rising logistics expenses tied to the Iran conflict, though it said protein demand in the Persian Gulf remains intact and its Middle East operations continue uninterrupted.
Trade dynamics are also shifting. New Chinese restrictions — including quotas and tariffs on beef imports — are expected to limit export growth in 2026. JBS indicated Brazil may need to redirect volumes to alternative markets, with domestic consumption helping absorb some of the impact.
Bottom Line: JBS’s results underscore a broader theme in global protein markets: strong consumer demand is colliding with tight supply and rising input costs — particularly in the U.S. cattle cycle — leaving profitability under pressure even as top-line growth remains robust.
— Bessent eyes Fed overhaul modeled on Bank of England
Treasury secretary pushes for narrower crisis powers as Trump-aligned officials favor closer policy coordination
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is exploring a potential overhaul of the Federal Reserve that would more closely mirror the structure of the Bank of England, according to reporting from the Financial Times.
In discussions with financial industry executives, Bessent indicated he would favor maintaining the Fed’s independence on setting monetary policy, while curbing its discretion to intervene aggressively during periods of financial instability — a notable shift from the central bank’s current broad crisis-response toolkit.
The proposal reflects long-standing criticism from Bessent of the Fed’s use of quantitative easing, or large-scale asset purchases, which he and other Trump administration allies argue have distorted markets and expanded the central bank’s footprint beyond its core mandate.
The push for reform is also aligned with views from Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, who has advocated for tighter coordination between the central bank and the Treasury Department. That approach would mark a departure from the Fed’s traditional independence, potentially reshaping how monetary and fiscal policy interact — particularly during crises.
Taken together, the discussions signal a broader effort within the Trump administration to redefine the balance between central bank independence and government oversight, with implications for how the U.S. responds to future economic shocks.
— U.S. secures first Venezuelan gold shipment in two decades as investment push expands
Burgum touts $100M transfer following high-level talks with interim leadership, signaling deeper U.S. role in mining and energy sectors
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the U.S. has brought back roughly $100 million worth of gold from Venezuela — marking the first such shipment between the two countries in more than 20 years and underscoring a rapid expansion of U.S. economic involvement in the country.
The transfer follows direct meetings between Burgum, U.S. mining executives, and Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez, part of a broader push by the Trump administration to reopen Venezuela’s resource sector to American investment. The gold — sourced from the state-owned mining firm Minerven — is expected to be refined and used for commercial and industrial purposes in the United States.
The shipment stems from newly authorized agreements allowing U.S. firms and traders to engage with Venezuela’s mining sector after years of sanctions and isolation. Recent policy changes have opened both oil and mineral development to foreign — primarily U.S. — participation, with contracts already signed and additional deals under discussion.
The move comes in the wake of a dramatic geopolitical shift earlier this year, when U.S. forces captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro during a January operation, paving the way for Rodríguez to assume interim leadership and reorient the country’s economic ties toward Washington.
Burgum described Venezuela’s mining sector as severely degraded but rich in long-term potential — with estimates suggesting hundreds of billions of dollars in untapped mineral resources, including gold and other critical materials. The administration has framed the engagement as both an economic opportunity and a strategic effort to secure.
— Supreme Court sides with internet providers in major copyright case
Unanimous ruling overturns $1B penalty against Cox, narrowing liability for user-driven piracy
The U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled that internet service providers are not automatically liable for copyright infringement committed by their users, delivering a significant victory to broadband companies and reversing a lower court’s $1 billion damages award against Cox Communications.
In its decision, the Court found that simply providing internet access does not amount to direct or contributory copyright infringement, even when users are accused of illegally downloading music. The ruling effectively shields ISPs from sweeping liability claims tied to customer behavior, absent clearer evidence of active participation or inducement.
The case marks a setback for Sony Music Entertainment and other major record labels, which had argued that Cox failed to take sufficient action against repeat infringers on its network. Lower courts had previously sided with the music industry, imposing a massive financial penalty intended to deter piracy enforcement failures.
The Supreme Court’s reversal signals a more restrained interpretation of ISP responsibility under copyright law, potentially reshaping how digital piracy cases are litigated going forward. Industry groups are now expected to reassess enforcement strategies, while internet providers gain stronger legal footing in disputes over user-generated infringement.
— Juries deliver twin blows to big tech over youth harm claims
Meta and YouTube face mounting legal exposure as courts target addictive design, child safety failures, and platform accountability
A California jury has delivered a landmark verdict against Meta and YouTube, finding the companies liable for harming a young user through addictive design features embedded in their platforms. The jury awarded $3 million in damages, marking one of the most significant rulings yet tying social media product design directly to youth mental health impacts.
The decision is expected to open the floodgates for similar lawsuits, as plaintiffs increasingly argue that platform algorithms and engagement tools — such as infinite scrolling, notifications, and personalized content feeds — are intentionally engineered to maximize user dependency, particularly among minors.
The California ruling follows closely on the heels of a separate jury verdict in New Mexico, where Meta was found liable for failing to adequately protect children from online dangers. In that case, the company was ordered to pay $375 million in damages, significantly escalating the financial and legal stakes for the social media giant.
Taken together, the back-to-back rulings signal a rapidly shifting legal environment for Big Tech, where courts are increasingly willing to scrutinize not just content moderation practices but also the underlying design of digital platforms.
Adding to the pressure, Meta separately announced roughly 700 layoffs as it continues to redirect resources toward artificial intelligence initiatives — a strategic pivot that comes amid intensifying regulatory, legal, and reputational challenges.
The convergence of legal liability, workforce restructuring, and product evolution underscores a critical inflection point for the industry, as policymakers, courts, and the public push for greater accountability over the societal impacts of social media.
| AG MARKETS |
— Modest U.S. ag export sales to China continue. USDA weekly Export Sales data for the week ended March 19 continued to show modest sales activity to China for 2025/26, consisting mostly of sales being shifted from being made previously to unknown destinations. Activity for the week ended March 19 included net sales of 3,373 MT of wheat (with 68,373 MT of exports leaving no outstanding sales), 121,193 MT of sorghum (5,027 MT of new sales), 262,974 MT of soybeans (6,962 MT of new sales), and 11,247 running bales of upland cotton (10,454 in new sales). Net sales of 9,743 MT of pork were also reported for 2026.
— China moves toward higher tariffs on Australian beef imports
Quota threshold nears as Beijing signals 55% duties on volumes exceeding limits
China’s Ministry of Commerce said imports of Australian beef have reached 50% of the country’s quota, putting shipments on track to soon face sharply higher tariffs. Under measures announced in 2025, China will impose a 55% tariff on beef imports that exceed quota levels from major suppliers, with the policy set to take effect Friday, March 27.
The development signals tightening trade conditions for Australian exporters, as continued shipment volumes could quickly push imports beyond the quota threshold and trigger the elevated tariff rate. The move reflects Beijing’s broader use of tariff-rate quotas to manage import flows and protect domestic producers, while adding uncertainty for global beef trade dynamics.
— Brazil soybean exports surge past 16 MMT in March as harvest gains momentum
Strong global demand and record crop prospects reinforce Brazil’s dominance in global oilseed markets
Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to exceed 16 million metric tons in March — with shipments projected around 16.3 million tonnes — according to estimates from the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec), based on port loading schedules.
The March surge marks a rebound from a slower February pace and reflects accelerating harvest activity for the 2025/26 crop, alongside firm international demand, particularly from Asian buyers. Industry projections place total exports within a broad range of 15 million to nearly 18 million tonnes for the month, underscoring Brazil’s scale and logistical throughput.
The export strength highlights soybeans’ central role in Brazil’s trade balance, serving as one of the country’s largest sources of export revenue. The uptick is also tied to expectations for a robust — potentially record — 2025/26 harvest, which is reinforcing Brazil’s position as a leading global supplier.
Looking ahead, export flows are expected to remain elevated through the peak harvest window, supported by sustained demand and continued shipment capacity across Brazilian ports.
— China hog glut deepens as prices hit 16-year low
Financial Times: Oversupply from aggressive herd expansion collides with weak demand, driving pork prices sharply lower and squeezing producer margins
Chinese pig prices have fallen to their lowest level in 16 years, according to the Financial Times, as a prolonged surge in hog production has overwhelmed demand and sent pork prices sharply lower.
The downturn reflects a classic supply shock: producers dramatically expanded output in recent years — encouraged by earlier high prices and government support — but consumption has failed to keep pace, leaving the market saturated.
Recent market data underscores the severity of the imbalance. Hog prices have dropped below production costs, with farmers in many cases losing hundreds of yuan per animal sold as prices fall well beneath breakeven levels.
Meanwhile, China’s sow herd remains elevated relative to official targets, signaling that supply has not yet adjusted meaningfully. That dynamic is prolonging the downturn and delaying any price recovery.
The result is a squeeze across the sector:
• Overcapacity: Years of expansion, including large-scale industrial farms, have kept hog output high even as demand softens
• Weak consumption: Sluggish economic conditions and shifting diets are limiting pork demand growth
• Negative margins: Prices have fallen below production costs, forcing losses across much of the industry
• Policy pressure: Beijing is urging producers to cut herd sizes and stabilize the market
The situation also reflects the broader “hog cycle,” where high prices drive expansion, eventually leading to oversupply and a sharp price correction.
For global markets, the implications are notable: China accounts for roughly half of the world’s pig production, so sustained weakness in its pork sector can ripple into feed demand (corn, soymeal), trade flows, and protein markets more broadly.
— Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price March 25 | Difference from March 24 |
| Corn | May | $4.67 1/4 | +4 3/4 cents |
| Soybeans | May | $11.71 3/4 | +16 3/4 cents |
| Soybean Meal | May | $319.80 | -$2.60 |
| Soybean Oil | May | 67.10 | +137 points |
| SRW Wheat | May | $5.97 3/4 | +7 3/4 cents |
| HRW Wheat | May | $6.17 3/4 | +13 3/4 cents |
| Spring Wheat | May | $6.40 3/4 | +9 1/2 cents |
| Cotton | May | 68.18 cents | +56 points |
| Live Cattle | April | $234.425 | -$0.95 |
| Feeder Cattle | March | $350.05 | -$0.65 |
| Lean Hogs | April | $90.90 | -$0.15 |
— Grain and livestock markets rally on Trump/Xi summit confirmation
EPA biofuel ruling and China Trade optimism drive broad-based gains across commodities
Note: All market information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.
Agricultural commodity markets posted widespread gains on Wednesday, with grains and oilseeds surging to daily highs after the White House confirmed that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet in mid-May in Beijing (link), with a reciprocal Xi visit to the U.S. to follow. The announcement revived hopes for expanded Chinese agricultural purchases and sent soybeans, soybean oil, cotton, and wheat sharply higher into the close. Cattle and hog markets were the notable exceptions, with both drifting lower amid their own fundamental headwinds.
The average guess for the Prospective Plantings report next Tuesday is for 94.4 million acres of corn and 86.5 million acres of soybeans. All wheat acreage is estimated to be 44.8 million acres.
CORN: May corn futures rose 4¾ cents to $4.67¼, finishing near the daily high on technically driven buying as the price uptrend on the daily bar chart remains intact. The national average cash corn price has been consolidating in the $4.20–$4.25 range, supported by solid export commitments running 30% ahead of last year’s pace and at 81% of the USDA’s full-year export projection. Near-term attention is squarely on the EPA, which is expected to release biofuel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027 before month — potentially at President Trump’s “Celebration of Agriculture” event on Friday, March 27. Any increase in the Renewable Volume Obligation would be bullish for ethanol demand and, by extension, corn prices. The grain continues to track daily crude oil movements closely, and further clarity on the Iran conflict ceasefire talks will likely drive price direction in the days ahead. EIA ethanol production data released Wednesday was seen as steady to slightly higher, providing modest underlying support.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans surged 16¾ cents to $11.71¾, closing near the daily high on a late-session burst of buying triggered by the White House’s announcement that Trump and Xi will meet in mid-May. The confirmation reversed nearly a week of selling pressure that had driven May beans down more than 64 cents since last Friday, after Trump had signaled the originally scheduled late-March summit might be delayed due to U.S. military operations in Iran. The stakes could not be higher for American soybean farmers: China remains the world’s largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, and earlier this year Trump stated that China planned to lift purchases to 20 million metric tons this season and 25 million in the following year. U.S. soybean export commitments for the marketing year currently stand well below the two-year average pace, with Brazil — now supplying approximately 74% of China’s total soybean imports — aggressively filling the gap. Analysts say a successful summit could deliver concrete purchase commitments that would fundamentally tighten the U.S. balance sheet for the 2025/26 marketing year. Export sales data due Thursday morning are expected in the 250,000–500,000 MT range, and any upside surprise would add fuel to Wednesday’s rally.
SOYBEAN MEAL: May soybean meal bucked the broader soy complex, losing $2.60 to $319.80 and finishing nearer the daily low. The divergence from soybeans and soybean oil reflects the biofuel-driven nature of Wednesday’s rally: anticipated EPA renewable volume obligation announcements are supportive of soy oil demand but offer little direct benefit to meal, creating a “product split” in the crush complex. Meal had opened the day on a modestly firmer footing — the open price was $326.70 per ton — before sellers gained the upper hand. Fundamentally, meal demand remains solid on a year-over-year basis, with export sales running at a competitive pace, but ample South American supplies and the absence of a formal large-scale Chinese purchase program continue to limit the upside.
SOYBEAN OIL: May soybean oil rose 137 points to 67.10 cents per pound, closing near the daily high in one of the stronger performances in the complex on Wednesday. The rally was powered by dual catalysts: growing optimism ahead of the EPA’s expected renewable volume obligation announcement — broadly anticipated to be bullish for the biofuel industry — and the late-session surge in soy complex sentiment after the Trump/Xi meeting confirmation. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed this week that the administration is moving quickly on blending standards, and industry sources suggest the White House may use Friday’s “Celebration of Agriculture” event to release finalized numbers. A strong biofuel mandate would directly expand domestic demand for soybean oil as a feedstock for biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel, providing structural support that extends well beyond near-term speculative buying.
WHEAT: All three wheat classes rallied Wednesday on short covering and perceived bargain hunting following recent sharp losses. May Chicago SRW wheat rose 7¾ cents to $5.97¾; May Kansas City HRW gained 13¾ cents to $6.17¾; and May spring wheat climbed 9½ cents to $6.40¾ — all finishing near their daily highs. The market received a boost from Trump’s comments about pausing military strikes in Iran, as Middle Eastern nations are among the world’s largest wheat buyers. However, Iran quickly denied that any negotiations were underway, capping additional gains. Crop conditions in key U.S. growing areas deteriorated sharply in the most recent USDA state ratings: Kansas dropped 6 percentage points to just 46% good-to-excellent, Colorado fell 5 points to 24%, and Oklahoma slid 4 points to 14% — levels that underscore persistent drought stress across the Southern Plains. On the supply side, Russian grain exports are running roughly three times higher year-over-year in March, and EU soft wheat export shipments are ahead of last year’s pace, keeping global competition intense and limiting the magnitude of any sustained rally.
COTTON: May cotton futures rose 56 points to 68.18 cents per pound, finishing near the session high in another corrective bounce from recent selling pressure, with a late session assist from soybeans’ surge on the Trump/Xi announcement. Cotton’s price action in March has been dramatic: futures staged a significant recovery from the low 62-cent range toward current levels after drought coverage across major U.S. growing regions reached 88%, raising serious fears about crop abandonment rates rivaling those seen during the catastrophic 2011 drought. The forced buying was driven in part by managed money unwinding near-record short positions, providing an artificial price floor even as the fundamental demand picture remains soft. With global ending stocks remaining elevated and weak textile demand persisting, the rally is primarily supply-shock-driven rather than demand-led. Traders will monitor weekly export data and any further deterioration in southwestern U.S. crop conditions as the planting season approaches.
CATTLE: April live cattle fell $0.95 to $234.425, finishing near mid-range as the futures market paused within a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. March feeder cattle lost $0.65 to $350.05, hitting a three-week high early in the session before backing off to settle near mid-range. The broader cattle market backdrop remains historically bullish: the five-market weekly average for fed steers recently hit $246.91 per hundredweight — a record high — supported by the tightest U.S. cattle inventory in decades, with the national herd standing at 86.2 million head as of Jan. 1, 2026, down 300,000 head from a year earlier. The latest Cattle on Feed report showed February placements up 3.67% year-over-year while marketings were down 7.8%, with the March 1 on-feed inventory at 11.549 million head, just barely below year-ago levels. USDA projects 2026 slaughter steer prices to average $242.00 per hundredweight for the year. Packer margins remain deeply in the red, limiting their appetite to bid up cash cattle, and traders will watch closely for any cash trade to develop later this week.
HOGS: April lean hog futures fell $0.15 to $90.90, finishing nearer the session low and notching a nine-week low as mild technical selling pressure continued within a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. The lean hog market has been under pressure from multiple fronts: shaky investor risk appetite tied to the ongoing Iran war, a technically bearish chart posture following recent weekly low closes, and a cash market that has struggled to find traction. The CME Lean Hog Index recently stood near $91.78–$92.04, with the national direct rolling average cash hog price at $90.38–$92.62 depending on the day. Pork carcass cutout values have been oscillating around the $97–$100 range. Longer-term, the outlook is more constructive: the upcoming grilling season typically brings a seasonal tightening in hog supplies, and USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report is due today and will provide a critical snapshot of the breeding herd and farrowing intentions. A successful Trump/Xi summit in mid-May could also unlock incremental Chinese pork demand, which would be a meaningful tailwind given that China remains the world’s leading pork consumer.
| FARM POLICY |
— USDA specialty crop payments face precision challenge on input costs
Flat per-acre aid likely to overlook wide cost disparities between fresh and processing crops
As USDA prepares to roll out payment rates for specialty crop producers via its Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, a central concern is emerging across the industry: whether the assistance will adequately reflect the wide variation in input costs — even within the same commodity. USDA previously announced that a total of $1 billion would be available for specialty crops and sugar.
The worry is not that specialty crops will be less tailored. The worry is that it will be just like row crops (i.e. a flat national rate with no tailoring).
Potatoes offer a clear example of the challenge. Fresh market potato production in some regions may carry input costs around $1,500 per acre. In contrast, processing potatoes — particularly those tied to frozen or foodservice markets — can reach $3,500 to $5,000 per acre, driven in part by storage requirements and contract specifications.
Despite these differences, USDA is unlikely to differentiate payment rates between fresh and processing uses. While the Farm Service Agency (FSA) maintains internal commodity and practice codes that can distinguish such production types, past programs have generally grouped commodities into broad categories for payment purposes, without accounting for end use or production system.
The result is a structural mismatch: higher-cost production systems may receive the same per-acre payments as lower-cost operations, effectively diluting the impact of the aid where financial pressure is most acute.
USDA officials are aware of these dynamics, but the agency faces practical constraints. Specialty crops present far greater variability than row crops in terms of regional production practices, input intensity, and market channels. That complexity makes it difficult to design a program that can be both timely and finely calibrated.
Dry edible beans present an additional layer of complication. Some acres may already be covered under broader commodity programs, while others fall into the specialty crop category, depending on classification. This split underscores the broader challenge USDA faces in consistently applying payment frameworks across diverse crop systems.
As for payment levels, no credible figures have circulated ahead of the official announcement. However, with total funding capped and payments expected to be distributed across a wide range of specialty crops, industry expectations are that per-acre rates will be modest relative to actual production costs — particularly for high-input crops.
USDA has signaled openness to stakeholder feedback on economic conditions and input costs, suggesting that while the initial rollout may rely on simplified assumptions, there could be room for refinement in future iterations or supplemental programs.
In the near term, the key question will be how USDA balances speed and simplicity against accuracy. For many producers, especially those in higher-cost production systems, the answer may determine whether the assistance provides meaningful relief or merely partial support in an increasingly volatile cost environment.
— Shaheen introduces crop insurance reform bill targeting subsidy caps
Politico reports proposal would limit farmer subsidies and insurer payments — but faces steep odds in Congress
Rep. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), ranking member of the House Appropriations agriculture subcommittee, has introduced legislation to overhaul the federal crop insurance program, according to Politico.
The bill — titled the Assisting Family Farmers Through Insurance Reform Measures (AFFIRM) Act — would cap federal crop insurance subsidies at $40,000 per farmer annually and eliminate premium subsidies for producers earning more than $250,000 per year.
Shaheen said the proposal is aimed at redirecting support toward smaller operations. “American taxpayers shouldn’t be footing the bill for crop insurance companies and large agri-businesses to turn a profit on crop subsidies while small farms that actually need support don’t receive it,” she said, per Politico.
Beyond producer limits, the legislation would also reduce payments to crop insurance companies by capping administrative and operating reimbursements at $900 million — down from the current roughly $1.5 billion level.
Despite the targeted reforms, the bill faces long odds. Efforts to significantly restructure crop insurance — a cornerstone of the U.S. farm safety net with strong bipartisan backing — have historically struggled to gain traction, particularly in a divided Congress where farm-state lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have resisted subsidy caps and insurer payment cuts.
| FERTILIZER |
— Russia gains fertilizer windfall as Iran war tightens global supply
Disruptions to Gulf exports boost Russian market share, prompting calls to ease Western trade curbs
Russia is emerging as a key beneficiary of the Iran war–driven fertilizer shock, as supply disruptions across the Middle East tighten global markets and lift prices, according to the Financial Times.
The near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical corridor for ammonia, urea, and other inputs — has sharply reduced exports from Gulf producers, creating a supply gap in global fertilizer markets. That disruption is pushing buyers toward alternative suppliers, with Russia — already a major exporter of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers — capturing increased demand and higher margins.
The price surge is significant: global fertilizer costs have jumped roughly 30%–40% since the conflict began, amplifying revenue gains for exporters still able to ship product.
The windfall mirrors dynamics seen in energy markets, where geopolitical shocks allow sanctioned or constrained producers like Russia to regain leverage as buyers prioritize supply security over politics.
The situation is fueling debate in Europe and elsewhere over whether to ease restrictions on Russian fertilizer exports, with concerns that tight supply could worsen food inflation and crop yields globally.
For agriculture, the implications are acute: reduced availability and higher input costs are expected to curb fertilizer use, potentially lowering yields and tightening global grain supplies later this year.
Bottom Line: The Iran war is reshaping fertilizer trade flows much like oil — turning Russia into a short-term “swing supplier” and forcing policymakers to weigh sanctions policy against rising food security risks.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
Thursday: Oil rebounds as Middle East conflict risks tighten global supply
Brent, WTI climb ~2% amid stalled diplomacy, shipping disruptions, and widening supply shocks
Oil prices rebounded Thursday, rising about 2% after sharp losses in the previous session, as markets refocused on escalating supply risks tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Brent crude climbed $2.08, 2.03%, to $104.30 per barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $1.93, 2.14%, to $92.25.
The gains follow a more than 2% decline Wednesday, underscoring persistent volatility driven by rapidly shifting geopolitical signals.
Geopolitical risk back in focus: Optimism around a potential ceasefire has faded, with Iran signaling it is reviewing a U.S. proposal but has no intention of entering negotiations. The White House warned Tehran could face intensified military pressure if it does not concede, raising the likelihood of prolonged conflict.
Hormuz disruption remains central: The conflict has effectively halted flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery that typically carries roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG shipments. The International Energy Agency has described the disruption as unprecedented, amplifying supply concerns across energy markets.
Broader supply shocks emerging: Additional tightening pressures are building globally. Russian export capacity is reportedly constrained by attacks and tanker seizures, while Iraqi production has slowed amid storage bottlenecks. These disruptions are compounding the loss of Middle Eastern supply.
Policy response intensifies: Calls are growing for coordinated strategic stockpile releases. Japan’s government has already urged further action from the IEA as it seeks to cushion the economic impact of sustained supply disruptions.
Bearish inventory signal ignored: U.S. crude inventories surged by 6.9 million barrels — far exceeding expectations — yet the market largely shrugged off the build, reflecting how geopolitical risk is currently outweighing fundamental demand signals.
The result is a market increasingly driven by headline risk, where price direction hinges on military developments and diplomatic breakthroughs. With negotiations stalled and supply disruptions widening, oil remains highly sensitive to any escalation — or signs of de-escalation — in the conflict.
— Wednesday: Oil slips as diplomacy tempers gains amid persistent supply shock
Prices retreat from intraday plunge as Iran proposal uncertainty drives volatility, while supply disruptions and inventory build shape outlook
Oil prices fell Wednesday, paring sharper earlier losses as markets weighed tentative diplomatic signals against ongoing supply disruptions tied to the Persian Gulf conflict.
Brent crude settled at $102.22 per barrel, down $2.27 (2.2%).
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $90.32, off $2.03 (2.2%).
Brent had dropped as much as 7% intraday before recovering.
The pullback reflects shifting expectations around potential de-escalation after Iran began reviewing a U.S. proposal to end the conflict. While Tehran has not formally rejected the plan, initial signals have been negative, leaving markets caught between hope for a diplomatic off-ramp and skepticism over a near-term breakthrough. That uncertainty continues to fuel sharp price swings, with 30-day historical volatility rising to its highest level since April 2022.
Despite the softer close, underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz — which typically handles roughly one-fifth of global crude and LNG flows — continue to represent a major supply shock, tightening global balances as outages persist.
Additional constraints are emerging globally. Russian export flows from Baltic ports have been hindered by reported drone attacks, while limited sanction relief has allowed some Iranian barrels to re-enter Asian markets, partially offsetting supply losses.
On the domestic front, U.S. inventory data added a bearish element. Crude stocks rose by 6.9 million barrels for the week ended March 20, far exceeding expectations for a 500,000-barrel increase. No releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were reported.
Overall, crude markets remain highly headline-driven, with price direction hinging on the trajectory of diplomacy as much as the durability of ongoing supply disruptions.
— EPA issues nationwide E15 summer waiver — industry pushes Congress for permanent fix
Temporary emergency action boosts ethanol demand and fuel supply, but stakeholders say legislative certainty is overdue
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Wednesday announced a nationwide emergency waiver allowing the summertime sale of E15 gasoline, a move aimed at stabilizing fuel supply and expanding consumer choice — but one that immediately renewed pressure on Congress to enact a permanent year-round policy.
Under the action, Administrator Lee Zeldin authorized continued sales of E15 — gasoline blended with 15% ethanol — beginning May 1, 2026, effectively waiving longstanding seasonal restrictions tied to air quality regulations. The EPA said the step is intended to prevent fuel disruptions and increase available supply during peak driving months.
“This emergency action will provide American families with relief by increasing fuel supply and consumer choice,” Zeldin said.
“We foresee potential for a disruption to the American fuel supply,” Zeldin said at a press conference on the sidelines of the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, at which he announced the waiver.
Analysts said the change could shave several cents per gallon off retail prices.
Administration frames move as supply and farm support measure. The waiver also drew strong backing from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasizing its importance for both consumers and farmers. “Allowing the summer sale of E15 will provide drivers more options at the pump, and deliver a bigger domestic market for American farmers,” Rollins said, while stressing that a permanent solution remains necessary.
The action comes amid heightened global energy volatility tied to Middle East conflict, reinforcing the administration’s argument that domestic biofuels can serve as a buffer against oil market disruptions.
Lawmakers: temporary fix highlights need for legislation. Bipartisan lawmakers welcomed the waiver but underscored that it does not resolve long-standing uncertainty around E15 policy.
Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) said the move supports energy independence but criticized continued reliance on short-term actions. “Congress must pass a permanent, nationwide solution,” Smith said, pointing to resistance from some refiners.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) — ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee — noted she has urged President Donald Trump to expand E15 access nationwide and is co-leading legislation with Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) to allow year-round sales.
Fischer echoed the sentiment, calling the waiver insufficient as a long-term policy.
Industry groups: stability and certainty are missing. Major farm and biofuel groups praised the EPA action but uniformly called for Congress to act.
The American Farm Bureau Federation said farmers welcome the expanded access.
The Renewable Fuels Association warned that reliance on “stop-gap emergency waivers” continues to undermine market stability.
Similarly, Growth Energy argued that permanent nationwide access would unlock greater fuel savings and strengthen rural economies, particularly as geopolitical tensions drive oil price volatility.
The National Corn Growers Association and National Farmers Union both emphasized that while the waiver boosts demand for corn-based ethanol in the near term, only legislation can provide the certainty needed for long-term investment and market expansion.
Impact and perspective: Without the waiver, E15 gasoline would be unavailable across roughly half the country this summer, according to EPA estimates. However, the agency also notes that E15 is currently offered at only about 3,000 fueling stations nationwide, while the ethanol industry places that figure closer to 4,000 — a small share of the roughly 120,000 to 150,000 total U.S. fueling stations. This gap is why some observers argue the biofuels industry should prioritize expanding retail infrastructure — blender pumps, storage compatibility, and station conversions — rather than focusing primarily on annual waiver extensions or legislative fixes. Without significantly more pumps, year-round E15 authorization alone would not translate into widespread consumer access. Retailers face real barriers to expansion, including upfront capital costs, liability concerns tied to misfueling, and uncertainty about long-term policy stability. Many station owners are hesitant to invest in new tanks or pumps without clear, permanent rules governing E15 sales. The result is a bottleneck: policy enables supply, but infrastructure determines actual demand. Even as ethanol producers push for nationwide, year-round E15, critics note that meaningful market share gains will require scaling distribution — not just securing regulatory relief. In that context, the waiver highlights a broader industry challenge: bridging the gap between production capacity and retail availability remains the key hurdle to expanding ethanol consumption in the U.S. fuel mix.
Bottom Line: familiar cycle repeats. The latest waiver continues a pattern seen in recent years — emergency summertime approvals followed by renewed calls for legislative action. While the EPA’s move provides immediate relief for fuel markets and ethanol demand, it leaves unresolved the structural issue facing E15: without congressional approval, nationwide year-round access remains dependent on temporary executive action.
For the biofuels sector and farm economy, that uncertainty — rather than supply — remains the central constraint.
| — Besides the E15 waiver, EPA took a separate and important step on E10: EPA removed federal barriers to E10 nationwide. Specifically:• The agency “removed all federal impediments to selling E10 across the country”• It also waived enforcement of state “boutique” fuel requirements, allowing a single national fuel standard (10 psi RVP) for gasoline blends containing roughly 9%–15% ethanol What that means in practice• Refiners and fuel distributors can produce and ship a more uniform gasoline blend nationwide, instead of tailoring fuel to different state requirements.• E10 — already the most common fuel blend — gets fewer regulatory constraints, improving distribution flexibility.• The move is aimed at boosting overall fuel supply and easing logistics, not just expanding ethanol demand. Bottom Line: EPA’s E10 action simplifies the fuel system nationwide, helping ensure supply flows more smoothly during the summer driving season. But even this move has limited impact (link) — the portion of the action covering these “boutique” fuels covers only a small part of the country. |
| TRADE POLICY |
— EU advances U.S. trade deal after Greenland standoff
European Parliament approval moves pact forward, but includes safeguards after months of geopolitical tension
EU lawmakers have approved moving forward with a trade deal with the United States, ending a prolonged delay triggered by the so-called Greenland crisis — when tensions over U.S. tariff threats and territorial rhetoric led Brussels to freeze the agreement earlier this year.
The European Parliament vote marks a significant step toward implementing the agreement, which includes removing EU tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and expanding market access for American agricultural exports.
However, lawmakers attached multiple safeguards reflecting continued skepticism toward U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump. These include “sunset” and suspension mechanisms that would allow the EU to withdraw concessions if Washington imposes new tariffs or fails to honor the deal.
Greenland crisis drove delays and distrust. The vote had been postponed for months after the Greenland dispute — where U.S. pressure and tariff threats aimed at Denmark and other European countries prompted the EU to halt ratification entirely.
European officials viewed the episode as a test of U.S. reliability, with some lawmakers warning that proceeding without legal protections would expose the bloc to further economic coercion.
What it means going forward. The deal now moves into final negotiations between the European Parliament and EU member states, with full approval expected later this spring.
• The EU is effectively pairing trade liberalization with enforcement tools, signaling a more defensive posture in transatlantic relations.
• For agriculture and industrial exporters, the agreement could reopen market opportunities — but with lingering uncertainty tied to U.S. tariff policy.
Bottom Line: The EU’s approval is less a full endorsement of the deal and more a conditional green light — advancing transatlantic trade while hedging against another sudden policy shift out of Washington.
— White House moves to rebuild tariff regime after Supreme Court setback
Navarro signals shift toward Section 232 and 301 authorities as administration eyes 15% global tariff
The Trump administration is moving to reconstruct its tariff framework after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with White House trade adviser Peter Navarro confirming plans to raise global tariffs to 15% and rely more heavily on alternative legal authorities during remarks at a March 25 event hosted by Politico.
Following the ruling, President Donald Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% global tariff — with an increase to 15% still “in process,” according to Navarro. Section 122 allows tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days to address balance-of-payments concerns, positioning it as a short-term bridge.
Navarro emphasized that the administration is pivoting toward more durable tools, particularly Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, to replicate the scope of the invalidated tariffs. He argued that expanding Section 232 duties — which apply globally rather than country-specific — could ultimately approximate the broad reach of the IEEPA-based regime.
The Commerce Department, which oversees Section 232 investigations, has not yet announced new probes since the court decision, though officials signal more could be forthcoming on national security grounds. Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is advancing new Section 301 investigations targeting forced labor enforcement and industrial overcapacity across major trading partners.
Commerce Undersecretary William Kimmitt said new Section 232 probes are driven by ongoing national security evaluations, not as a direct response to the ruling. Prior comments from Greer suggest the administration is prepared to use trade investigations to “recreate” tariff pressure if needed, leaving open the possibility that a layered approach — combining Sections 122, 232, and 301 — could effectively rebuild the tariff regime struck down by the Court.
| CONGRESS |
— Valadao joins House Ag Committee, restoring GOP California representation
GT Thompson taps California dairy farmer to fill LaMalfa vacancy, citing need for major ag state voice
Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) has joined the House Agriculture Committee, filling the seat left vacant following the death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa and restoring Republican representation from California on the panel.
House Agriculture Committee Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) told Politico he “felt compelled” to appoint a Californian, noting the state’s outsized role in U.S. agriculture and the absence of a GOP voice from the region on the committee. “Brought David back on the committee to fill the shoes of another great Californian, Doug LaMalfa,” Thompson said, emphasizing Valadao’s agricultural background. “David’s a farmer. I’ve been on his family farm. They milk a lot of cows.”
Valadao, who operates a dairy farm, underscored the value of direct production experience in policymaking, pointing to ongoing pressures across the farm economy — including rising input costs, labor shortages, and trade challenges — as key issues he intends to address on the committee.
The move reinforces California’s influence in House ag policy debates, particularly as lawmakers navigate farm bill negotiations and mounting cost pressures across specialty crops, dairy, and labor-intensive sectors.
— Bipartisan push targets political betting by lawmakers
New bill would restrict use of prediction markets — but past trading bans have repeatedly stalled
Lawmakers are preparing to introduce bipartisan legislation next week that would bar members of Congress and certain executive branch officials from using prediction markets to wager on political outcomes or policy decisions, according to Politico.
The proposal reflects growing concern that officials with access to nonpublic information could profit from bets tied to elections, legislation, or regulatory actions — an emerging frontier alongside the long-running debate over congressional stock trading.
However, the effort faces familiar headwinds. Previous attempts to curb lawmakers’ financial trading — particularly stock ownership and transactions — have gained public attention but consistently failed to advance through Congress, underscoring the difficulty of imposing new ethics restrictions on sitting members.
— MAHA Surgeon General nominee faces GOP resistance
Casey Means lacks key Republican support, leaving confirmation path uncertain
Dr. Casey Means — the surgeon general nominee backed by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and aligned with the “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) agenda — is encountering significant Republican resistance in the Senate, jeopardizing her confirmation.
Means currently does not have unified GOP support on the Senate health committee — a requirement if Democrats oppose her nomination, as expected. Key Republicans, including Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), and Susan Collins (R-Maine), have expressed skepticism or withheld their positions publicly.
Even if Means advances out of committee, her prospects on the Senate floor remain uncertain. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has indicated he is leaning against confirmation, while Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is viewed as another potential “no” vote — meaning Means could only afford to lose three Republican votes if all Democrats oppose her.
The opposition appears tied in part to broader concerns about Kennedy’s leadership and vaccine positions. Means herself drew scrutiny during her confirmation hearing after declining to explicitly endorse routine childhood vaccinations, instead emphasizing nutrition and chronic disease prevention.
Despite the resistance, the White House is continuing to push for her confirmation, with allies arguing she represents a key voice in advancing the MAHA agenda. However, the current impasse leaves no clear path forward, underscoring internal Republican divisions over both the nominee and Kennedy’s influence on public health policy.
— Bipartisan Senate deal targets $35 insulin cap nationwide
Lawmakers aim to expand savings beyond Medicare as broader drug pricing crackdown gains momentum
A bipartisan group of senators has reached an agreement to cap insulin prices at $35, reviving a long-running push in Washington to rein in one of the most visible drivers of out-of-pocket healthcare costs. The proposal would extend beyond the existing Medicare cap by launching a pilot program aimed at reducing insulin costs for uninsured patients — a key gap left by prior reforms.
The deal reflects renewed political alignment on drug pricing, an issue that has drawn sustained bipartisan attention amid rising healthcare costs and public pressure. Lawmakers involved in the negotiations are now focused on persuading Senate leadership to bring the measure to the floor — a step that has derailed similar efforts in past Congresses despite broad support.
The insulin proposal builds on a series of recent policy moves targeting the pharmaceutical supply chain. Just last month, Congress advanced legislation aimed at regulating pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), which critics argue play a significant role in driving up drug prices through rebate structures and opaque pricing practices. In parallel, the Trump administration has launched “TrumpRx,” a federal initiative designed to help consumers identify lower-cost prescription drug options.
If enacted, the insulin cap would mark one of the most direct federal interventions in drug pricing beyond Medicare — and could serve as a template for broader reforms targeting high-cost chronic disease treatments. However, questions remain about funding mechanisms, insurer participation in the uninsured pilot, and whether leadership will prioritize the measure amid competing legislative demands.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
— Massie’s defiance of Trump sets stage for high-stakes GOP primary fight
Libertarian congressman frames re-election bid around independence as Trump-backed challenger and outside money escalate pressure
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is mounting his re-election campaign around a core message of independence from his own party and President Donald Trump, setting up one of the most closely watched and expensive Republican primaries in the country, according to reporting by Catie Edmondson in the New York Times (link).
Massie, a libertarian-leaning lawmaker known for bucking party leadership, has drawn Trump’s ire over issues ranging from federal spending to the war in Iran and his role in pushing for the release of Epstein-related files. Trump has actively targeted him, backing challenger Ed Gallrein and campaigning in Kentucky to unseat him.
The race has attracted significant outside spending, with more than $5 million already deployed by groups aligned with Trump and GOP megadonors, underscoring the broader stakes for party discipline and ideological alignment.
Gallrein is running explicitly as a pro-Trump candidate, emphasizing loyalty to the president and party unity, while Massie argues that members of Congress should remain independent from the executive branch, framing the contest as a referendum on whether dissent still has a place within the GOP.
Voter sentiment in the district reflects that tension: some longtime Massie supporters say they are shifting toward the Trump-backed challenger, while others back Massie’s “common sense” voting style even when it diverges from Trump’s positions.
Massie’s broader argument is that the outcome will signal whether Republican lawmakers can act independently or will function as a unified bloc aligned with Trump — a dynamic that could shape congressional behavior beyond Kentucky’s Fourth District.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Record-breaking heat expands into the Midwest today… …Severe thunderstorms likely across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys this afternoon and evening… …Much colder temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. Friday and Saturday…
