$4 Average Gas Prices: Implications Mount; Trump Pressures Allies on Hormuz
Needed perspective on USDA’s Prospective Plantings report
| LINKS |
Link: Updates, March 31, Part 1: WSJ: Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to
End War Without Reopening Hormuz
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 29
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 29
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 31, 2026, Part 2 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Trump pressures allies on Hormuz as war strains energy supply
President urges UK and France to secure oil access themselves, escalating rhetoric amid global supply shock
—Gas prices surge past $4 as Iran war disrupts global oil flows
U.S. fuel costs jump ~35% in a month as Hormuz disruption tightens supply, amplifying inflation and political pressure
— Strikes expand to civilian infrastructure as Trump signals possible endgame in Iran conflict
Attacks on water and energy assets escalate humanitarian risks even as markets price in potential de-escalation
— Eurozone inflation reaccelerates on energy surge
Iran-linked energy shock lifts inflation above target, complicating ECB policy outlook
— Trump touts soybean trade gains as U.S./China deal faces delivery gaps
China purchases lag commitments while Brazil captures market share ahead of key summit
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities shift to “war-off” tone amid de-escalation hopes
Stocks rise and oil dips on reports Trump may end conflict, though volatility persists
— Unilever nears $15.7B food unit sale to McCormick
Strategic divestment reflects pressure from weak demand and GLP-1 disruption
— Dollar posts strongest month since 2024 on war-driven haven demand
Energy shock and growth fears fuel safe-haven flows and delay Fed easing bets
— NFL taps American Express as new payments partner
Seven-year deal replaces Visa and signals major sponsorship shift
FERTILIZER
— Global fertilizer scramble intensifies as war disrupts supplies
Hormuz closure chokes nutrient flows, raising food security and inflation risks
— India diversifies fertilizer sourcing amid Gulf disruptions
New suppliers targeted as LNG dependence and production constraints persist
AG MARKETS
— Analysts caution against overreacting to USDA planting intentions
March data seen as a starting point, with volatility and weather likely to shift acreage
— JBS Greeley strike enters third week with no resolution in sight
Labor standoff threatens beef supply chain amid tight cattle inventories
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil surges toward record monthly gains on war risk
Brent and WTI post historic jumps as supply fears outweigh de-escalation signals
— EV supply chains hit same chokepoint as oil
Gulf aluminum disruptions expose hidden vulnerabilities in energy transition
CHINA
— China manufacturing returns to expansion on stimulus and AI demand
PMI rebounds above 50, though employment and supply chains remain weak
ELECTIONS & POLITICS
— Democrats’ misplaced rage — a self-inflicted political collapse
Charlie Cook argues party losses stem from policy failures, not messaging
STATE POLICY
— Washington state approves first income tax on millionaires
New 9.9% levy funds social programs but raises concerns over economic impact
FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY
— Heart group diet guidance clashes with Trump administration
AHA pushes plant-based diets as federal policy shifts toward animal proteins
WEATHER
— Storm system splits U.S. pattern, bypassing key wheat areas
Corn Belt sees heavy rain while HRW regions stay hot and dry
— South America weather mixed as Brazil benefits, Argentina turns wet
Favorable Brazil rains offset by heat stress south and flooding risks in Argentina
TOP STORIES—Trump pressures allies on Hormuz as war strains energy supplyPresident urges UK and France to secure oil access themselves, escalating rhetoric amid global supply shock President Donald Trump sharply criticized U.S. allies, including the United Kingdom and France, for staying out of the Iran conflict, accusing them of benefiting from U.S. military action while failing to contribute. In a series of public statements, Trump suggested those nations should “just take” control of the Strait of Hormuz to restore access to disrupted oil supplies, signaling a harder U.S. stance toward allied burden-sharing. The president warned that U.S. support may not be guaranteed going forward, framing the conflict as one in which European allies must take greater responsibility for their own energy security and military engagement. Trump also alleged that France blocked military supply flights to Israel, further heightening tensions with key NATO partners amid the broader Middle East conflict. The remarks come as the administration sets an April 6 deadline for Iran to return to negotiations, with Trump threatening expanded strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and even the potential seizure of key export hubs like Kharg Island. With roughly 20% of global oil flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz, its disruption has driven a sharp spike in energy prices — underscoring the geopolitical and economic stakes behind Trump’s comments.—Gas prices surge past $4 as Iran war disrupts global oil flowsStrait of Hormuz closure fuels supply shock, raising inflation risks and political pressure U.S. gasoline prices have surged past $4 per gallon nationwide, according to AAA, marking a sharp escalation in consumer energy costs as the war with Iran continues to disrupt global oil flows. The national average for regular gasoline now stands at $4.018 per gallon — a roughly 35% increase since the conflict began — with mid-grade at $4.541, premium at $4.904, and diesel climbing to $5.454. Just one month ago, regular gas averaged $2.98, underscoring the speed and severity of the price shock.  Strait of Hormuz disruption drives global supply squeeze. The primary catalyst remains the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply typically flows. With most shipping traffic halted or severely restricted, global crude markets have tightened dramatically. Benchmark oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, feeding directly into higher refined fuel costs. The supply shock has been compounded by elevated war-risk insurance premiums, shipping reroutes, and reduced export capacity from key Gulf producers. Regional disparities widen as West Coast leads price spike. Fuel costs vary significantly across the country. California remains the most expensive market, with regular gasoline averaging $5.887 per gallon, reflecting stricter fuel standards and logistical constraints. By contrast, Oklahoma reports some of the lowest prices nationwide at $3.272 per gallon. The widening regional spread highlights structural differences in fuel supply chains, refinery configurations, and state-level regulations — all of which amplify price volatility during global disruptions. Inflation and economic risks intensify. The surge in gasoline and diesel prices is beginning to ripple across the broader economy. Higher transportation and input costs are expected to push up prices for food, consumer goods, and agricultural inputs — particularly diesel-dependent sectors like farming and freight. Political pressure builds as consumers feel the impact. The price spike is also becoming a growing political issue. A recent Morning Consult poll found that 48% of Americans blame President Donald Trump and his administration for rising fuel costs, while smaller shares point to oil companies, global market dynamics, or the previous administration. Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos survey indicates that 87% of Americans expect gas prices to continue rising if the conflict persists — reinforcing concerns that elevated energy costs could become entrenched. Elevated fuel costs have historically shaped voter sentiment, and the timing — months before midterms — raises stakes for policymakers managing both the conflict and its economic consequences. While the administration has taken steps such as easing shipping restrictions and considering supply-side measures, analysts warn these actions may only modestly offset the global supply shock. Looking ahead, the trajectory of gas prices will largely depend on whether shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz and whether global oil supply can stabilize. Absent a de-escalation, analysts expect continued volatility — and sustained upward pressure — at the pump.—Strikes expand to civilian infrastructure as Trump signals possible endgame in Iran conflictDesalination plants and oil shipping targeted amid widening war footprint, while markets rally on signs of potential de-escalation The conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalated into more dangerous territory as both sides signaled a willingness to target critical civilian infrastructure, raising alarms about humanitarian risks and potential violations of international law. President Donald Trump threatened Iran’s water infrastructure, while Tehran retaliated with reported strikes on a Kuwaiti desalination plant and a fully loaded oil tanker off the Gulf coast. The developments mark a significant expansion of the conflict beyond traditional military targets and into systems essential for civilian survival and global energy flows. Gulf nations depend heavily on desalination for freshwater, and damage to these facilities could have catastrophic consequences. According to reporting cited by the Associated Press, widespread disruption to the region’s desalination network — which supplies water to major urban centers — could render parts of the Gulf effectively uninhabitable. Attacks on such infrastructure by any party could be considered war crimes under international law. Of note: The Wall Street Journal commentary (link) opposed bombing Iran’s electric power or desalination plants, which it says serve civilian more than military needs. “These would punish the Iranian people the U.S. needs on its side against the regime once the bombing stops. Tehran already had a water shortage before the war owing to the regime’s mismanagement. Bombing desalination plants would let the regime blame the U.S. for the shortages, in addition to causing far more humanitarian hardship. The same goes for bombing Iran’s electricity production. Iranians without electricity or water would soon need external supplies or become refugees to neighboring countries and beyond. This would win no friends in the region when the U.S. is trying to get them to support the war. Stories of civilian deprivation could also turn public opinion in the U.S. even further against the war.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine will hold a news conference at 8 a.m. ET on the Iran conflict.The latest strikes come amid continued exchanges across the region. Iran reported explosions across multiple locations domestically, while Israeli and Emirati defenses intercepted incoming Iranian projectiles targeting key sites, including near Dubai. Despite the intensifying battlefield risks, financial markets moved in the opposite direction. Oil prices declined and equities rose after a Wall Street Journal report indicated Trump is weighing a rapid end to U.S. military operations — even as tensions on the ground continue to escalate. On a related topic, Trump will likely fume when he learns of a Bloomberg commentary that says: “After a month of fighting, it’s arguably Iran that has secured the most significant strategic victory — a tightening grip over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. So far in March, barely six vessels per day on average have traversed the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world, in either direction. That compares with about 135 a day in normal times.” Upshot: The divergence between escalating physical risks and easing market sentiment underscores growing uncertainty over the conflict’s trajectory — with investors increasingly betting on a political off-ramp even as the war expands into more destabilizing domains. Oil prices are unlikely to quickly revert to prewar levels, even if the U.S. moves toward a rapid exit. Significant damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure would persist, while Iran could retain the ability to disrupt regional shipping in the future. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate that if the conflict extends to six weeks, Brent crude could average around $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter — up from roughly $60 at the start of the year, prior to the latest Wall Street Journal report.—Eurozone inflation reaccelerates on energy surgeIran-linked energy shock pushes inflation higher, complicating ECB outlook Euro area inflation rose to 2.5% in March, up from 1.9% in February and the highest since January 2025, driven largely by a 4.9% jump in energy prices tied to the Iran conflict. Excluding energy, inflation held at 2.3%, while core inflation eased to 2.3%, suggesting underlying pressures remain contained for now. The rebound puts inflation back above the ECB’s 2% target, raising concerns that prolonged energy disruptions could broaden price pressures and force a policy response in the months ahead. —Trump touts soybean trade gains as U.S./China deal faces delivery gapsFarmers question China’s ability to meet purchase commitments as Brazil captures market share ahead of key summit As President Donald Trump heads toward a high-stakes summit with Xi Jinping in a rescheduled summit for Mary 14-15, U.S./China agricultural trade — particularly soybeans — is again at the center of negotiations, though significant gaps remain between commitments and actual shipments, according to reporting from the South China Morning Post. Trump has framed prior trade agreements as a major win for U.S. farmers, claiming China agreed to dramatically increase soybean purchases — at times citing figures as high as $40 billion annually. However, those figures have not been confirmed by USDA data, and actual flows suggest a much weaker recovery in trade volumes. Shipments lag commitments as Brazil dominates. Under a temporary trade truce reached after China largely boycotted U.S. soybeans in 2025, Beijing committed to purchase 12 million metric tons by the end of Feburary or year-end depending on conflicting statements, and up to 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. But early 2026 data shows a sharp shortfall:• China imported just 1.49 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in January–February — down more than 80% year over year• Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean imports surged 82%, reaching 6.56 million metric tons over the same period• The divergence underscores a structural shift, as Chinese private buyers continue favoring Brazil to avoid tariff exposure, while U.S. sales have been concentrated among Chinese state-owned enterprises. “Unknown” destinations cloud export picture. The SCMP says USDA data shows China has either purchased or taken shipment of 10.8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans so far this marketing year, with an additional 2.19 million metric tons booked to “unknown” destinations — a category often associated with Chinese buyers but lacking confirmation. Note: USDA data shows U.S. soybean export commitments to China stood at 11.242 MMT as of March 19. Outstanding sales to unknown destinations were at 1.833 MMT as of March 19 and not all those sales will end up being shifted to China. This ambiguity has added uncertainty to the market, particularly as U.S. farmers head into planting season with elevated inventories and heavy reliance on export demand. Agriculture central to broader trade negotiations. Agriculture remains a key U.S. priority in ongoing negotiations. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has emphasized the need for “balanced trade,” including proposals for a managed trade framework that would require both countries to purchase equal values of goods — with soybeans and other agricultural products at the core. Meanwhile, tensions persist, with both sides launching competing trade investigations and using agricultural purchases as leverage in broader disputes over technology, energy, and supply chains. Farmers seek stability amid rising dependence on China. U.S. soybean producers remain heavily exposed to Chinese demand, which historically accounts for roughly half of U.S. soybean exports. Industry leaders warn that current purchase levels fall well short of typical trade flows and underscore the need for predictable market access. Compounding the issue, rising fertilizer costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions are pushing some U.S. farmers to plant more soybeans instead of corn — potentially increasing domestic surpluses and deepening reliance on Chinese buying. With the Trump/Xi summit approaching, markets will be watching closely for concrete purchase commitments — and more importantly, whether those commitments translate into actual shipments. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Markets shifted into a risk-on — “war-off” tone overnight, with equities advancing and oil futures slipping after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump is prepared to end the U.S./Iran conflict even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. However, crude prices have since rebounded, tempering the earlier risk-on momentum and cooling inflows into equities.
In Asia, Japan -1.6%. Hong Kong +0.2%. China -0.8%. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.2%. Frankfurt +0.6%.
On the macro front, the euro area’s flash HICP came in softer than expected, rising 2.5% versus estimates of 2.7%, offering some relief on the inflation front.
A slate of Federal Reserve speakers is scheduled, including Austan Goolsbee (12:00 p.m. ET), Jeff Schmid (1:10 p.m. ET), Michael Barr (3:00 p.m. ET), and Michelle Bowman (5:10 p.m. ET), which could further shape rate expectations.
—Unilever is in advanced negotiations to divest most of its food division, with shares rising after the company signaled a deal could be announced as soon as today. The prospective transaction would see McCormick & Company acquire the business for approximately $15.7 billion in cash and stock. The move reflects Unilever’s effort to scale back its exposure to the food segment amid softer consumer spending and growing pressure from GLP-1 weight-loss drugs.
—Dollar surges as Iran war drives haven demand, rewrites global FX outlook
Greenback posts strongest monthly gain since 2024 as energy shock, risk aversion, and shifting rate expectations fuel bullish positioning
The U.S. dollar is closing out its strongest month since October 2024, as escalating conflict in the Middle East — particularly disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz — has triggered a broad flight to safety and reshaped global currency markets.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has climbed roughly 3% in March, with investors piling into the world’s primary reserve currency amid heightened geopolitical risk, surging energy prices, and weakening global growth expectations. The rally reflects a classic “risk-off” environment, where capital flows toward perceived safe-haven assets.
Strategists point to a convergence of factors driving the move. The U.S.’ position as the world’s largest oil producer has provided a relative advantage as crude prices spike, while energy-import-dependent economies like Europe and Japan face mounting economic strain. That divergence has amplified demand for the dollar. “The dollar rallied as a safe haven bid on weakening global growth expectations,” said Noah Buffam of CIBC Capital Markets.
Positioning in derivatives markets underscores the shift. Traders who had previously bet against the dollar have rapidly reversed course, with bullish wagers now exceeding $7 billion — the highest level since December. Major financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are reassessing earlier bearish outlooks on the currency.
Meanwhile, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been pushed back as war-driven inflation risks — particularly from energy — complicate the policy outlook. Higher-for-longer rate assumptions have further supported the dollar by widening interest rate differentials in favor of U.S. assets.
Still, the rally is not without skepticism. Some asset managers, including Invesco Ltd. and Barclays Plc, caution that the current surge may be nearing its peak. With much of the near-term geopolitical premium already priced in, they argue the dollar could face downside if risk sentiment stabilizes.
Longer term, the conflict is also reviving debate over global diversification away from U.S. markets — particularly as policy uncertainty under President Donald Trump adds another layer of volatility to the outlook.
For now, however, the dollar remains firmly bid — a direct reflection of a global economy increasingly shaped by war-driven energy shocks, shifting monetary expectations, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
—The National Football League struck a deal to make American Express its official credit card and payments partner, replacing a three-decade arrangement with Visa. The seven-year deal begins Wednesday and could result in Amex paying the NFL $900 million. Later this year, Amex and the NFL will introduce the NFL Extra Points American Express credit card.
| FERTILIZER |
—Global fertilizer scramble intensifies as war disrupts supplies
Middle East conflict exposes deep links between energy, agriculture, and food security as prices surge and nations race to secure inputs
A global rush to secure fertilizer supplies is underway as the war in the Middle East — and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — disrupts critical nutrient flows ahead of the Northern Hemisphere planting season, raising fears of a renewed food inflation shock.
Fertilizers, heavily dependent on natural gas and concentrated in key exporting regions like the Persian Gulf, sit at the center of the disruption. The region accounts for more than one-third of global urea exports and a significant share of ammonia and sulfur trade, making the chokepoint closure particularly severe for agricultural supply chains.
Urea prices have already risen sharply, while phosphate supplies are tightening, prompting governments worldwide to intervene. Major exporters such as China and Russia have imposed restrictions, while countries including India — the world’s largest urea importer — are scrambling to secure cargoes and even ration usage among farmers.
The supply shock is cascading across global agriculture. Brazil is increasing imports from Morocco and exploring domestic production incentives, while European countries like France and Greece are expanding financial support for farmers. In Africa, governments are rolling out emergency fertilizer programs to stabilize production.
In the U.S., the Trump administration has taken steps to ease pressure, including suspending sanctions on Venezuelan fertilizers and waiving shipping restrictions (Jones Act) to improve domestic distribution. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said officials are exploring “every available tool” to mitigate rising input costs.
Still, market participants warn that policy measures may offer only limited relief. With shipments physically blocked at a key maritime chokepoint, the disruption is more severe than the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war, when supplies were largely rerouted rather than halted.
The consequences are already emerging at the farm level. Producers face higher input costs amid already weak crop prices, squeezing margins and raising the likelihood of reduced application rates — a dynamic that could lower yields and push food prices higher later in the year.
Central banks are also watching closely. While fertilizer costs are typically excluded from core inflation, policymakers — including Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey — have flagged the risk of renewed price pressures feeding into broader food inflation.
If the conflict persists into midyear, analysts warn the impacts could deepen significantly. Wealthier nations may cushion farmers through subsidies, but developing regions — particularly sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia — face heightened risks of food insecurity.
China, meanwhile, is emerging as a relative winner. As the world’s largest urea producer with tight export controls, Beijing is able to shield domestic agriculture while exerting greater influence over global supply.
The broader takeaway is clear: the fertilizer market — and by extension global food production — remains highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, industry leaders warn that the current disruption could evolve into a full-scale food security crisis.
—India scrambles to diversify fertilizer supply chains amid Gulf disruptions
New sourcing strategy targets global partners as urea output dips and LNG dependence complicates production
India is accelerating efforts to secure fertilizer supplies by diversifying import sources beyond the Middle East, even as domestic inventories remain relatively strong heading into the summer planting season.
Aparna Sharma of India’s Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers said the country expects total fertilizer demand of roughly 39 million metric tons (MMT) for summer crops, with current stocks at about 18 MMT — up from just under 15 MMT a year ago. Despite the improved inventory position, officials are moving proactively to hedge against supply risks tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Prior to the war, India sourced roughly 20%–30% of its urea imports and about 30% of its diammonium phosphate (DAP) from Gulf countries. In response to disruptions, New Delhi is expanding procurement to a broader network including Russia, Morocco, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Jordan, Canada, Algeria, Egypt, and Togo.
The shift comes as domestic production faces constraints. Urea output is currently running near 1.8 MMT per month — below the typical 2.4 MMT — due to plant restarts following seasonal maintenance. Compounding the issue, India remains heavily dependent on the Middle East for roughly 50% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG), a key input for nitrogen fertilizer production.
Despite rising global prices, the government continues to sell urea and DAP at subsidized rates, cushioning farmers but increasing fiscal pressure.
The situation highlights a broader global risk: even countries with adequate inventories may struggle to align fertilizer supply with peak planting demand as geopolitical disruptions ripple through energy and input markets.
| AG MARKETS |
—How one veteran commodity analyst sums up USDA’s Prospective Plantings report
Quote of note: “Most analysts are worried about how much is going to get planted to each crop… when the reality is… Prospective Plantings are nothing more than a benchmark from which to add or subtract acres. It was never meant as anything more. But those same analysts will then bitch that USDA ‘missed’ with March intentions. The reality: March intentions are farmer generated… and nothing more than intentions at the beginning of spring… of course they will change.”
An agribusiness analysts adds: “With all the volatility in the markets that we have had since China had African Swine Fever and imports of soybeans were also limited due to a trade war, Covid, Russia invaded Ukraine, Trade Liberation Day last April 2, and now this year, there is no wonder that farmers change and react to the marketplace and this results in more variability from the March report to final plantings. While these may be extraordinary, and seem to be more frequent, transparency from transmission of weather and market data also impacts farmers in more real time.”
Some analysts note the grain stocks numbers tend to be the driver of the market once things settle out.
—JBS Greeley strike enters third week as standoff drags on
Thousands remain off the job while JBS shifts production and negotiations stall
The labor strike at the JBS USA beef plant in Greeley, Colorado — one of the largest in the U.S. — has now entered its third week, with little sign of a near-term resolution. Up to 3,800 workers, represented by the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7, walked off the job on March 16 following months of failed contract negotiations.
Key sticking points remain unresolved
• Workers are demanding higher wages tied to inflation, improved health care benefits, and relief from out-of-pocket costs for safety equipment.
• Union members overwhelmingly rejected a company proposal that included roughly 2% annual wage increases, arguing it falls short given Colorado’s cost of living.
• The strike has also been framed as an unfair labor practice dispute, with allegations of unsafe conditions and labor violations.
Operations continue at reduced capacity. JBS has kept the plant running at limited capacity, shifting cattle and production to facilities in other states, including Texas and Nebraska, to meet customer demand.
The Greeley facility is a critical node in the U.S. beef system, accounting for roughly 5–6% of national processing capacity, meaning prolonged disruption could ripple through cattle markets and boxed beef supplies.
Market and industry implications. The strike comes amid tight cattle supplies and record beef prices, amplifying concerns about supply chain strain. Analysts note it is too early to determine retail price impacts, but reduced slaughter capacity could tighten supplies further if the strike persists. Some industry observers suggest packers may still maintain margins in the near term due to already elevated beef prices and constrained supply.
Outlook: Negotiations remain stalled, and union leadership has warned the dispute could become a “long, drawn-out fight.” With both sides dug in — and JBS able to reroute production for now — the timeline for resolution remains uncertain, leaving cattle markets and beef supply chains closely watching developments in Greeley.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Tuesday: Oil markets surge on war risk — Brent heads for record monthly gain amid Hormuz disruptions
Mixed signals on de-escalation clash with mounting supply threats across key shipping chokepoints
Brent crude is on pace for a historic monthly surge, with front-month prices jumping roughly 58% — the largest gain on record dating back to 1988 — as war-driven supply risks dominate market sentiment. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is also up about 54% for the month, marking its biggest increase since 2020.
Prices remain highly volatile, with expiring May Brent futures trading near $114.58 per barrel, while the more active June contract lagged around $107.07 — reflecting near-term supply panic versus longer-term uncertainty. WTI hovered near $103.52.
Geopolitical crosscurrents are driving the market: traders are weighing a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump may seek a swift end to the Iran conflict, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, leaving a critical supply artery disrupted.
Despite potential de-escalation, supply risks are intensifying. Analysts warn that damaged infrastructure and restricted shipping lanes will take time to restore, keeping global oil supplies tight even in a post-conflict scenario.
Direct attacks on energy logistics are escalating concerns: a Kuwaiti supertanker carrying up to 2 million barrels was struck near Dubai, underscoring risks to seaborne crude flows and raising the threat of environmental damage.
Regional chokepoints beyond Hormuz are now at risk, with Iran-aligned Houthi forces targeting Israel and increasing instability around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a vital corridor linking the Red Sea to global trade routes via the Suez Canal.
Saudi Arabia is rerouting crude flows, sharply increasing shipments to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to bypass the Persian Gulf. Flows surged to roughly 4.66 million barrels per day, up from about 770,000 earlier this year — a sign of mounting logistical strain.
Market buffers are eroding, according to analysts, leaving the global oil system increasingly exposed to prolonged disruptions. The combination of constrained supply routes and geopolitical uncertainty is expected to sustain upward pressure on prices and raise the risk of broader physical shortages.
—EV supply chains hit the same chokepoint as oil
Gulf aluminum disruptions expose new vulnerabilities for electric vehicle manufacturing
Electric vehicles — long viewed as a pathway to reduce reliance on oil — are now facing a parallel supply chain risk as disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz constrain the flow of critical materials.
The problem: Gulf nations including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar have spent decades building a globally competitive aluminum industry tied closely to the automotive sector, helping position the UAE as the world’s fifth-largest producer. That aluminum — essential for lightweight EV construction and battery efficiency — is now caught behind the same strategic bottleneck that has long dictated global oil markets.
Producers have begun rerouting shipments by truck to ports outside the Strait, but those workarounds are proving slower and more costly, adding friction to already strained global supply chains.
The disruption underscores a broader structural vulnerability: even as EVs aim to bypass fossil fuels, they remain dependent on geographically concentrated inputs exposed to geopolitical risk.
Analysts note that manufacturers are unlikely to abandon Gulf sourcing entirely, but will be forced to rethink supply chain diversification, risk exposure, and long-term resilience strategies.
The result could accelerate a shift toward more geographically diversified sourcing networks — even if it comes at higher cost — as automakers reassess the hidden dependencies embedded in the EV transition.
| CHINA |
—China factory activity returns to expansion as stimulus and AI demand lift manufacturing
March PMI rebounds above 50 threshold, but rising input costs and weak employment signal uneven recovery
China’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion territory in March, with the official NBS Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.4 from 49.0 in February, beating expectations and marking its strongest reading since March 2025. The move above the key 50 threshold signals renewed growth after two consecutive months of contraction.
The rebound was driven in part by stronger government spending early in the year and resilient export demand tied to global AI-related investment. Factory output accelerated to 51.4, up from 49.6 in February, while new orders surged to 51.6 from 48.6 — a sign that domestic demand is stabilizing alongside external support.
Export activity also improved, though it remained slightly below expansion levels, with new export orders rising to 49.1 from 45.0. At the same time, purchasing activity strengthened to 50.9, reflecting increased input buying as firms ramped up production.
However, underlying labor conditions remained weak. Employment stayed in contraction territory at 48.6, highlighting ongoing caution among manufacturers despite improved demand. Supplier delivery times also remained below the 50 mark at 49.5, suggesting lingering supply chain frictions.
| ELECTIONS & POLITICS |
—Democrats’ misplaced rage — a self-inflicted political collapse
Charlie Cook argues party anger after 2024 losses ignores deeper strategic and policy failures that cost Democrats unified power
Veteran election analyst Charlie Cook, writing in National Journal, contends that Democratic frustration following the 2024 election is badly misdirected — and that the party’s real problem lies in its own decisions over the past five years.
Cook frames the current backlash within the Democratic base — calls for stronger opposition to President Donald Trump, demands for generational change, and a push for more “authentic” candidates — as largely reactive and late-arriving. He argues the party failed to confront warning signs earlier, particularly during Joe Biden’s presidency, when approval ratings slid and concerns about leadership persisted but drew limited internal resistance.
Cook highlights what he sees as a delayed reckoning: Democratic anger only surged after the party lost the White House, Senate control, and failed to reclaim the House in 2024. Yet he stresses the election itself was not a landslide — with a narrow national margin and competitive swing-state outcomes — suggesting the party’s collapse was less about one election and more about cumulative missteps.
At the core of his argument is a stark assessment: Democrats squandered unified control of government they held just five years earlier. Rather than analyzing policy and political decisions that led to that reversal, Cook writes, many in the party have focused on surface-level fixes like messaging, candidate style, or generational turnover.
He points specifically to economic conditions as a critical failure. Rising inflation, sharply higher interest rates, and deteriorating affordability — from mortgages to auto loans and credit cards — eroded voter confidence. Cook suggests Democrats underestimated how deeply these pressures affected voters, particularly younger and working-class Americans.
Cook also dismisses the idea that branding alone — such as projecting a working-class image — can win back voters. Instead, he argues the party must focus on substantive policy alignment and candidate credibility, not aesthetics.
His conclusion is blunt: Democrats’ frustration is understandable, but misplaced. The party’s path forward requires introspection — not finger-pointing — and a clear-eyed assessment of how it lost political power despite once holding full control in Washington.
| STATE POLICY |
—Washington State enacts first-ever income tax on millionaires
New 9.9% levy targets top earners as policymakers weigh equity gains against economic risks
Washington state has approved a landmark 9.9% income tax on earnings above $1 million, marking the state’s first-ever income tax and a significant shift in its tax structure. Signed into law by Governor Bob Ferguson, the measure will take effect in 2028 and is aimed squarely at high-income households.
State leaders say the new tax will fund an expansion of social and economic programs, including childcare support, universal free school meals, and an enhanced Working Families Tax Credit. The credit is expected to reach an additional 460,000 households, providing annual payments ranging from $300 to $1,300. Additional provisions include tax relief for roughly 138,000 small businesses and the elimination of sales taxes on essential goods such as diapers, over-the-counter medications, and hygiene products.
Supporters argue the policy addresses long-standing tax inequities in a state heavily reliant on sales and property taxes. Ferguson emphasized that lower-income residents currently pay a disproportionately higher share of their income in taxes compared to wealthier households, framing the measure as a “rebalancing” effort.
The move places Washington among a growing number of Democrat-led states pursuing higher taxes on top earners. Similar policies have gained traction elsewhere, including a surtax approved by voters in Massachusetts, which has generated billions in new revenue. Proposals are also under consideration in states like Colorado and Rhode Island, as well as at the city level in New York.
However, critics warn the policy could carry economic risks. Republican lawmakers, including state House Minority Leader Drew Stokesbary, argue that higher taxes on wealthy individuals may discourage investment, entrepreneurship, and job creation, while potentially accelerating outmigration to lower-tax states. Opponents also caution that such taxes could expand over time to affect a broader share of residents.
The policy divergence reflects a widening national split: while blue states explore progressive tax structures targeting wealth, several red states — including Mississippi, Oklahoma, and South Carolina — are moving to reduce or eliminate income taxes altogether.
Washington’s new law underscores this broader fiscal realignment, with implications for interstate competition, labor mobility, and long-term state revenue strategies.
| FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—Heart group issues new diet guidance — clash with Trump administration deepens
American Heart Association doubles down on plant-based proteins and low-fat dairy as federal guidelines shift toward meat and full-fat products
The American Heart Association released updated dietary guidance urging Americans to prioritize plant-based proteins, limit red and processed meat, and choose low-fat or fat-free dairy — setting up a clear divide with new nutrition recommendations from the Trump administration.
The AHA’s guidance, published in Circulation, emphasizes diets rich in beans, lentils, vegetables, fruits, and whole grains, alongside oils like olive, soybean, and canola. It also advises minimizing sodium, added sugars, ultra-processed foods, and alcohol, while encouraging healthy eating patterns starting as early as age one.
The recommendations stand in contrast to dietary guidance issued under Donald Trump and the Department of Health and Human Services led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., which promote nutrient-dense animal proteins, beef tallow, and full-fat dairy as part of a healthy diet.
Scientific divide widens. AHA officials say their guidance reflects “decades of science,” pointing to research linking higher consumption of beans, peas, and lentils — and lower intake of red and processed meats — with reduced cardiovascular risk.
By contrast, federal officials argue that low-fat dairy products often rely on processed ingredients to replace natural fats and that whole-fat options can provide health benefits.
The disagreement highlights a broader split between federal policymakers and major medical organizations on nutrition and public health messaging — extending beyond diet into areas like vaccine guidance and medication use.
Implications for public health. The stakes are significant: more than half of U.S. adults have some form of cardiovascular disease, according to the AHA. The organization also notes that its recommended diet patterns may reduce risks of Type 2 diabetes and certain cancers.
Medical experts warn that conflicting guidance could influence consumer behavior, potentially encouraging higher meat consumption if federal messaging gains traction.
The AHA, which represents tens of thousands of medical professionals, continues to advocate for a long-term shift toward plant-forward diets — reinforcing a message it has maintained in prior guidance, even as federal recommendations move in a different direction.
| WEATHER |
— Storm system splits U.S. weather pattern, leaving key wheat areas dry
Heavy Corn Belt rains and Northern Plains snow contrast with heat and drought in HRW regions; relief may arrive mid-April
An active storm track is set to dominate the central United States through the weekend, delivering widespread precipitation but sharply dividing impacts across key agricultural regions.
• The central and eastern Corn Belt are expected to receive 2–4 inches of rainfall, improving soil moisture but potentially slowing early fieldwork.
• In contrast, the Northern Plains — particularly the Dakotas and northern Minnesota — could see more than a foot of snowfall, adding late-season moisture but delaying spring operations.
Critically, the system will bypass the drought-stricken Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat belt. Western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles are forecast to remain dry through the weekend, with temperatures running 20–30 degrees above normal — intensifying stress on already struggling wheat crops.
A sharp temperature divide will persist through Friday, with colder conditions in the northwest and unseasonable warmth in the southeast. A broader cooldown is expected across much of the country during the April 4–8 period.
Looking ahead, a potential pattern shift in the 11–15-day window offers some optimism. Forecast models indicate at least a half inch of moisture could return to the parched western wheat regions, alongside a gradual warming trend expanding eastward — a development markets will closely monitor given ongoing crop stress.
—South America: favorable Brazil conditions, Argentina turns wet
Weather conditions across Brazil remain broadly supportive for crop development
Brazil rains support crops while southern heat stress builds ahead of relief window
•Northern Brazil is expected to receive consistent rainfall of 0.5–1.5 inches across the next two weeks, aiding late soybean harvest while sustaining strong soil moisture for safrinha corn.
•However, heat remains a concern in southern safrinha regions — including Paraná and southern Mato Grosso do Sul — where above-normal temperatures are stressing crops. Relief is expected in the April 6–10 window, with 1–2 inches of rain forecast to stabilize soil conditions.
In Argentina, the outlook turns wetter:
•The country is expected to see a saturated and unusually warm first week, with heavy rainfall persisting through April 6, raising concerns about flooding and potential disruptions to harvest progress.
