Trump to Address Nation Tonight on Iran 

Perspective & market reaction re: USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports 

LINKS

Link: U.S./China Trade Reset: ‘Board of Trade’ Emerges as 
         Key Summit Deliverable

Link: USDA Grain Stocks Come in Near Trade Expectations — 
         Corn Slightly Tight, Soybeans Heavier Than Forecast
Link: Acreage Surprises Reshape Market Outlook, With Wheat 
          Leading Bullish Signals

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 29
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 29 

 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April 1, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES
 

— Trump to address nation on Iran conflict and markets: President Trump will deliver a prime-time address outlining U.S. strategy as war risks, oil volatility, and global market uncertainty intensify. 

— Trump signals possible U.S. exit from Iran without deal: Remarks suggest a unilateral withdrawal remains on the table, reinforcing uncertainty around the conflict’s endgame and oil market volatility. 

— Rubio defends Iran strike and outlines military objectives: Secretary of State Marco Rubio says U.S. action was necessary to stop a nuclear threat and claims operations are nearing completion. 

— U.S. weighs mission to seize Iran’s enriched uranium: Officials are considering a high-risk ground operation to secure nuclear material, though experts warn of major logistical and escalation risks. 

— CBP to roll out partial IEEPA tariff refund system: New system will cover most entries but excludes finalized shipments, drawing criticism for requiring businesses to opt in for refunds. 

— Federal office space underused, driving consolidation push: Agencies are using less than one-third of space, reinforcing efforts to sell buildings and relocate staff, including major USDA restructuring. 

— Forest Service headquarters moving to Salt Lake City: USDA plans major reorganization shifting leadership west, sparking debate over efficiency versus workforce losses. 

— Rollins highlights egg industry ahead of Easter event: USDA Secretary will spotlight domestic agriculture with a 30,000-egg White House promotional event. 

FINANCIAL MARKETS
 

— Global equities rally on Iran de-escalation hopes: Asian gains point to a higher U.S. open, with oil prices and geopolitical signals driving market direction. 

— Stocks surge on Trump signaling potential war wind-down: Nasdaq jumps 3.8% as easing conflict expectations push equities higher and reduce yields and oil prices. 

— Unilever and McCormick merge food businesses in $65B deal: Companies combine operations to form a global food giant amid shifting consumer demand dynamics. 

AG MARKETS
 

— USDA Planting Intentions show mixed acreage shifts: Corn exceeds expectations but declines year-over-year, while soybean gains fall short and wheat acres hit new lows. 

— Grain stocks data show strong corn demand, mixed signals elsewhere: Corn stocks come in below expectations, soybeans slightly above, and wheat demand improves. 

— Ag futures mostly higher on bullish data: Corn, soybeans, and wheat post gains, while livestock markets strengthen and cotton declines. 
 

FERTILIZER
 

— Fertilizer markets tighten as trade policy and geopolitics collide: Export restrictions, U.S. duties, and Middle East disruptions are driving price volatility and raising input risks for farmers. 

FARM POLICY

— USDA and Interior move to streamline grazing permits: New agreement aims to cut red tape, improve access to public lands, and support ranchers. 

TAX POLICY

— Tax refunds rise under Trump law but miss expectations: Refunds are modestly higher and more widespread, but fall short of White House projections. 

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil rebounds toward $103 as markets weigh Trump signals: Crude rises amid mixed signals on Iran exit, infrastructure attacks, and rising inventories. 

— Oil pulls back on ceasefire hopes but posts historic monthly gains: Volatility remains elevated despite sharp March rally driven by supply disruptions. 

— Ethanol faces global market access barriers despite rising demand: Trade restrictions, taxes, and regulatory hurdles limit U.S. export growth. 

TRADE POLICY
 

— USTR flags rising global trade barriers hitting U.S. agriculture: Non-tariff measures, SPS rules, and China’s policies continue to restrict market access. 

CHINA
 

— China factory activity slows as cost pressures rise: PMI misses expectations while energy-driven inflation and supply constraints build. 

WEATHER
 

— India faces extreme heat and energy-driven agriculture risks: Power shortages, rising input costs, and weather stress threaten crop production and food inflation. 

— Severe U.S. weather outlook intensifies: Storms, snow, and hazardous conditions expected across multiple regions this week. 
 

TOP STORIES — Trump to address nation as Iran conflict and global markets hang in the balancePrime-time speech expected to outline next steps on war, energy disruptions, and U.S. strategy President Donald Trump will deliver a televised address to the nation at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, a highly anticipated moment as the administration faces mounting pressure over the trajectory of the U.S.–Iran conflict and its cascading economic impacts. The address comes at a critical juncture, with global markets whipsawing on shifting expectations around a potential de-escalation. Oil prices have surged to historic monthly gains amid disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, while equities have recently rallied on signals that the administration may be open to winding down the conflict without fully restoring maritime flows. Policy clarity in focus. Trump is expected to outline his administration’s strategic objectives, including whether the U.S. will pursue a negotiated end to hostilities, maintain military pressure, or shift toward a containment posture. Key questions include:• Whether the U.S. will support international efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz• The potential use of naval escorts or security guarantees for commercial shipping• Any plans for economic measures, including sanctions adjustments or energy market interventions The speech may also address calls from allies and lawmakers for clearer guidance on U.S. commitments in the region, particularly as European and Asian economies grapple with supply disruptions. Economic and agricultural stakes. The timing is especially significant for U.S. agriculture and energy markets. Elevated oil prices are feeding into higher diesel and fertilizer costs, tightening margins for producers ahead of peak planting and growing seasons. Meanwhile, uncertainty around global trade flows — particularly with major importers like China and India — is raising concerns about demand stability for U.S. commodities. Any signal of de-escalation could ease input cost pressures and stabilize shipping routes, while a prolonged conflict risks further inflationary spillovers across fuel, fertilizer, and food supply chains. Market and geopolitical implications. Investors and policymakers alike will be watching closely for indications of:• A timeline or conditions for ending the conflict• U.S. expectations for burden-sharing among allies• The administration’s tolerance for continued energy market disruption With geopolitical risk premiums already embedded in crude markets and broader inflation concerns resurfacing, the address has the potential to reset expectations across financial, energy, and agricultural sectors heading into April. The speech is expected to be carried live across major broadcast and cable networks. — Trump signals U.S. exit from Iran conflict could come without formal dealFinancial Times reports remarks reinforce uncertainty over war timeline and diplomatic endgame President Donald Trump said the U.S. could withdraw from its military involvement in Iran “whether we have a deal or not,” according to reporting from the Financial Times, underscoring a more flexible — and potentially abrupt — end to U.S. engagement in the conflict. The comments suggest the administration is weighing a unilateral exit rather than tying withdrawal strictly to a negotiated settlement with Tehran. That stance adds to recent signals from Trump that the U.S. is seeking to reduce its direct role in the war, even as military assets continue flowing into the region and tensions remain elevated. The remarks also complicate the diplomatic picture. While Trump has indicated a deal with Iran is possible, saying it is not a prerequisite for ending U.S. involvement introduces uncertainty for allies and markets that have been looking for a clearer off-ramp tied to negotiations. From a market perspective, the statement reinforces the push-pull dynamic currently driving oil prices — optimism around de-escalation versus persistent risks to energy infrastructure and shipping lanes. Traders are increasingly pricing in a scenario where U.S. disengagement could occur quickly, but without resolving underlying regional instability. Bottom Line: Trump’s framing points to a potential near-term U.S. exit that may not coincide with a formal peace agreement, keeping geopolitical and energy market volatility elevated even if direct U.S. involvement winds down. — Rubio defends Iran strike as necessary to prevent nuclear breakout and missile threatSecretary of State says U.S. is “on or ahead of schedule” in degrading Iran’s military while warning NATO ties may face post-war reassessment Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in an interview on Hannity on Fox News Tuesday evening, March 31, forcefully defended the Trump administration’s military campaign against Iran, arguing the operation was necessary to prevent an imminent nuclear and missile threat that diplomacy had failed to resolve. Rubio pointed to Iran’s stockpile of roughly 60% enriched uranium — which he said could be converted to weapons-grade levels in “12 to 14 days” — as a key tipping point, asserting there is “no legitimate civilian use” for such material and that its existence signals clear intent to build a nuclear weapon. He framed the conflict as the culmination of decades of failed negotiations, saying Iran “refused to negotiate on missiles, terrorism, or enrichment” and instead used talks as delay tactics, a strategy he said Donald Trump would not tolerate. Rubio outlined four core U.S. military objectives — destroying Iran’s air force and navy, degrading missile launch capabilities, and dismantling its drone and missile production base — claiming the U.S. is already largely achieving those goals and can “see the finish line.” A central concern, he said, was Iran’s advancing missile capability. Rubio confirmed Tehran has demonstrated longer-range systems capable of reaching Europe and warned it was moving toward intercontinental capability targeting the United States, comparing the trajectory to “the next North Korea — but more dangerous.” On nuclear strategy, Rubio declined to discuss operational options but made clear the U.S. objective is to ensure Iran cannot retain its enriched uranium stockpile, emphasizing that allowing it to remain would pose an “existential threat.” Rubio also stressed the broader strategic context, arguing Iran had invested heavily in missiles, drones, and proxy warfare while its domestic economy deteriorated, reinforcing his case that the regime prioritizes military expansion over civilian needs. On the Strait of Hormuz, Rubio warned that any Iranian attempt to restrict shipping or impose tolls would violate international law, but notably suggested the burden of response should fall not just on the U.S. but on global powers dependent on the route — particularly in Europe and Asia. He delivered one of his sharpest critiques toward U.S. allies, signaling that NATO could face reassessment after the conflict if European nations continue restricting U.S. use of bases or overflight rights, calling such limitations evidence the alliance risks becoming a “one-way street.” Despite the military campaign, Rubio said the administration remains open to negotiations, including potential direct talks, but insisted any diplomacy must be genuine and not a delaying tactic. He concluded that the operation is likely weeks — not months — from achieving its objectives, arguing success would significantly delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions and enhance global security. — U.S. weighs high-risk mission to seize Iran’s enriched uraniumExperts warn potential ground operation would be complex, prolonged, and vulnerable to Iranian retaliation The Trump administration is weighing one of the most complex military operations of the conflict with Iran — a potential deployment of U.S. forces to physically secure and extract Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to defense officials and experts. The mission would require U.S. troops to enter heavily fortified nuclear sites, including facilities at Isfahan and Natanz, where intelligence officials believe the bulk of Iran’s enriched uranium remains. CIA Director John Ratcliffe has indicated Iran possesses roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium — enough for an estimated 10 nuclear weapons. A multi-day, multi-force operation. Military experts describe the operation as far from a quick “snatch-and-grab.” Instead, it would involve a large-scale, coordinated effort across multiple branches of the U.S. military, including elite special operations forces, airborne divisions, and extensive air and satellite support. Securing the sites alone would require substantial troop deployments, potentially involving units such as Army Rangers, the 101st Airborne Division, and Joint Special Operations Command forces. Air superiority, electronic warfare to disable Iranian defenses, and continuous close air support would be essential to protect personnel during the extraction process. Once secured, specialized teams would need to excavate deeply buried facilities — some previously targeted by bunker-buster strikes — and safely remove radioactive material stored in reinforced underground tunnels. Significant risks and uncertainties. The operation would expose U.S. personnel to Iranian missile and drone attacks, raising the risk of escalation in an already volatile conflict. Experts also warn of intelligence uncertainties, including the possibility that Iran has moved, concealed, or duplicated materials using decoys. Analysts note there is a chance something is missed, highlighting the difficulty of verifying complete removal. Even under optimal conditions, the mission could take several days to weeks, given the need for careful excavation, containment, and transport of hazardous materials. Handling the uranium would require specialized equipment, decontamination procedures, and secure logistics chains to prevent environmental or personnel exposure. Strategic timing questions. Some former military officials argue the operation may be premature under current battlefield conditions. They suggest that stabilizing the region — including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reducing active hostilities — would significantly improve the chances of success. Others emphasize that such a mission may ultimately require at least a tacit agreement with Iran to create a “semi-permissive environment,” reducing the likelihood of direct confrontation during the extraction. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not ruled out the option, signaling the administration’s willingness to consider ground operations as part of its broader strategy. Still, analysts agree: even if technically feasible, the mission represents one of the most dangerous and logistically demanding undertakings under consideration in the Iran conflict. — CBP to launch partial IEEPA tariff refund system as lawmakers push for automatic repaymentsPhase 1 rollout to cover 63% of entries, but excludes finalized shipments and draws criticism over opt-in process U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is preparing to roll out the first phase of its electronic refund system for International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs later this month, with initial functionality expected to cover approximately 63% of affected import entries, according to a court filing. Details: The system — known as the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) — will initially process refunds only for unliquidated entries and those within the 90-day voluntary reliquidation window. It will not yet handle “finally liquidated” entries, despite a recent court order expanding refund eligibility to include those shipments. CBP officials indicated the phased rollout is necessary to meet a targeted April 20 deployment deadline, with more complex cases — including those involving antidumping and countervailing duties or reconciliation flags — deferred to future system upgrades. However, the rollout is facing mounting political pressure. Senate Democrats, led by Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), argue the current opt-in structure — which requires importers to actively apply for refunds — places an undue burden on businesses, particularly small firms. Lawmakers contend that because the government already possesses records of tariff collections through its Automated Commercial Environment (ACE), it should instead issue refunds automatically. They warn that the existing system risks leaving many businesses — especially smaller importers with limited administrative capacity — unable to recover funds tied to tariffs later deemed illegal.  The dispute underscores broader tensions over how quickly and equitably the federal government can unwind the financial impacts of invalidated tariffs, particularly as courts continue to expand the scope of eligible refunds. — Federal office footprint under scrutiny as agencies leave majority of space unusedNew GSA data show sub-60% utilization across agencies, with billions in potential savings — USDA consolidation plans align with broader downsizing push A new congressionally mandated report from the General Services Administration (link) reveals that federal agencies are using less than one-third of their office space, leaving roughly 70% underutilized and costing taxpayers an estimated $2 billion annually. None of the 22 agencies reviewed met a 60% utilization benchmark in 2025 — a threshold established under a new federal law aimed at forcing agencies to justify or relinquish excess real estate. Several agencies, including the Small Business Administration and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, fell below 20% usage — a level that can trigger inspector general investigations.  The findings strengthen the Trump administration’s push to shrink the federal real estate footprint through building sales, lease cancellations, and agency consolidation. GSA Administrator Edward Forst signaled that a “use it or lose it” approach will guide future decisions, allowing the agency to force relocations or reduce office space allocations. The data also reinforce ongoing restructuring efforts at USDA, which has already begun a major footprint reduction strategy. USDA plans include disposing of large, underutilized facilities such as the South Building and relocating thousands of employees to regional hubs including Raleigh, Kansas City, and Fort Collins. The department has cited high vacancy rates — in some cases exceeding 70% — and significant deferred maintenance costs as justification for the shift. (As the data above shows, USDA occupied only 26% of its space in 2025.) See next item for a related article on USDA moving the Forest Service to Salt Lake City, Utah.) More broadly, the report reflects structural changes in federal work patterns following pandemic-era remote work adoption and workforce reductions tied to prior efficiency initiatives, including efforts associated with Elon Musk’s government reform push. Upshot: While national security agencies like the Department of Defense are exempt from the reporting requirements, the data provide the clearest picture yet of excess capacity across civilian agencies — and set the stage for an accelerated wave of federal property sales and consolidations in the months ahead.  — Forest Service to relocate headquarters to Salt Lake City in major USDA reorganizationTrump administration shifts leadership westward, sparking debate over efficiency gains and potential workforce losses The Trump administration announced a sweeping restructuring of the U.S. Forest Service, including relocating its headquarters from Washington, D.C. to Salt Lake City as part of a broader effort to decentralize USDA operations and align leadership more closely with western lands. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the move is intended to improve mission delivery, reduce costs, and strengthen forest management by placing decision-makers nearer to the landscapes they oversee. Nearly 90% of Forest Service lands are located west of the Mississippi River, reinforcing the rationale for the shift. Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden framed the relocation as part of a larger USDA reorganization already underway, which includes moving thousands of federal employees to regional hubs across the country. The Forest Service will also adopt a new state-based organizational model, distributing authority across 15 state directors responsible for regional oversight, partnerships, and operational priorities. The restructuring includes the creation of operational service centers in cities such as Albuquerque, Athens, Fort Collins, Madison, Missoula, and Placerville, with additional locations possible. While USDA has not confirmed total staffing impacts, reports indicate roughly 260 positions may be relocated out of Washington. Supporters, including Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D), welcomed the move as a logical step toward improving coordination with western states and enhancing forest and land management. However, the plan has drawn criticism from some lawmakers and some stakeholders. Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), ranking member of the House Ag Committee, warned the shift could trigger a loss of institutional expertise and weaken the agency’s ability to respond to wildfire risks and support rural communities. The relocation also builds on broader USDA facility changes, including plans to vacate the South Building in Washington and close offices in Alexandria, Virginia, as part of an effort to reduce federal real estate costs and modernize agency operations. Questions remain about congressional consultation, workforce retention, and how stakeholders outside the western U.S.—particularly in the Southeast timber sector—will be impacted by the transition. — Rollins to highlight U.S. egg industry ahead of White House Easter eventUSDA Secretary to welcome 30,000 eggs during “Great American Egg Road Trip” stop in Washington USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will take part in a high-visibility event Wednesday morning as the Trump administration spotlights U.S. agriculture ahead of the annual White House Easter Egg Roll. Rollins is set to officially welcome a shipment of 30,000 real eggs arriving in Washington as part of the “Great American Egg Road Trip,” a promotional campaign tied to both the Easter tradition and the nation’s upcoming 250th anniversary celebration. The eggs — sourced from North Carolina-based Braswell Family Farms — will ultimately be used on the White House South Lawn during the April 6 event. The truck transporting the eggs will stop at USDA headquarters, where Rollins will greet the shipment and deliver remarks during a scheduled media availability. The appearance underscores USDA’s effort to highlight domestic egg producers and broader agricultural supply chains at a time when food costs, livestock markets, and input pressures remain central to rural economic discussions. The event will take place Wednesday, April 1 at 10:45 a.m. ET at the USDA Whitten Building in Washington, D.C., serving as a lead-in to one of the administration’s most visible public-facing agricultural celebrations.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Global equities rally on de-escalation hopes, setting tone for U.S. stocks. Asian markets surged after President Trump signaled potential Iran exit within weeks — setting up a higher open for U.S. equities, with oil the key swing factor. Trump said the U.S. could end its military involvement in Iran within two to three weeks, boosting expectations of a near-term de-escalation and reduced energy disruption. The move follows a sharp U.S. rebound Tuesday (see below for details) and points to follow-through gains at Wednesday’s open as global risk sentiment improves.

What to watch Wednesday:

• Higher open likely: Momentum from Asia and short covering supports early gains

• Relief rally in play: Markets remain technically oversold, favoring a multi-day bounce

• Oil is decisive: Lower crude extends gains; any rebound caps upside and revives inflation concerns

• Rates tailwind: Easing yields and rising rate-cut expectations add support

Bottom Line: U.S. equities are set for a risk-on continuation, but the rally remains fragile — durability hinges on oil direction and credible de-escalation, not just headlines.

— Equities yesterday: Stocks rallied sharply after President Donald Trump signaled to aides he is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz does not fully reopen. The Nasdaq jumped 3.8%, buoyed further by reports that Iran’s president may be open to de-escalation. The S&P 500 rose 2.9%, while the Dow gained 2.5%.

Treasury yields and oil prices moved lower, reflecting easing risk sentiment. Investors interpreted Trump’s stance as a potential pathway toward winding down the conflict, though uncertainty around the war’s trajectory remains elevated. Trump also suggested other nations should take control of the strait themselves. Tensions persisted on the ground, with a Kuwaiti oil tanker anchored off Dubai struck by a drone.

Equity Index	Closing Price  March 31	Point Difference  from March 30	% Difference  from March 30	March %	Quarter %
Dow	46,341.51	+1,125.37	+2.49%	-5.4%	-3.58%
Nasdaq	21,590.63	+795.99	+3.83%	-4.8%	-7.11%
S&P 500	6,528.52	+184.80	+2.91%	-5.11%	-4.63%

— Unilever, McCormick combine food businesses in $65B deal. Unilever and McCormick agreed to merge their food businesses in a cash-and-stock deal worth more than $65 billion, creating a global food giant with annual revenue of about $20 billion. Unilever will own 65% of the new company and receive a $15.7 billion cash payment. McCormick CEO Brendan Foley will lead the combined company, which will include brands such as Hellmann’s, Knorr and French’s.

AG MARKETS

— USDA Prospective Plantings Report – 2026

Commodity	2026 Acres (mil.)	Trade Estimate (mil.)	2025 Acres (mil.)	Difference vs Trade	Year-over-Year Change
Corn	95.338	94.371	98.788	+0.967	-3.450
Soybeans	84.700	85.490	81.215	-0.790	+3.485
All Wheat	43.775	44.786	45.328	-1.011	-1.553
OSW	9.415	9.843	9.990	-0.428	-0.575
Durum	1.950	2.049	2.185	-0.099	-0.235
Cotton	9.640	9.229	9.283	+0.411	+0.357

Summary by Crop:

Corn: Acres came in above trade expectations but are down sharply year-over-year. Some analysts say survey timing likely overstated final plantings given rising input costs tied to geopolitical tensions, suggesting downside risk to actual acres.

Soybeans: Acreage increased from last year but came in below trade expectations. Gains are widespread across major producing states, indicating a shift from corn but less aggressive than anticipated.

Wheat: Total wheat acres declined again and remain historically low. Both spring wheat and durum saw notable reductions, reinforcing tight supply concerns.

Cotton: Acres exceeded trade expectations and increased from last year, with Texas driving most of the gains. Indicates improved relative economics versus grains.

— U.S. Grain Stocks Summary (March 1, 2026)

Commodity	March 1 Stocks (bil. bu.)	Trade Estimate (bil. bu.)	Dec. 1 Stocks (bil. bu.)	March 1, 2025 (bil. bu.)
Corn	9.024	9.104	13.305	8.147
Soybeans	2.105	2.067	3.290	1.910
Wheat	1.300	1.310	1.675	1.237

Crop Stocks Summary

Corn

• Stocks came in below trade expectations by 80 million bushels, a mildly bullish surprise.

• Total stocks are up 9.7% year-over-year, reflecting strong supply carryover.

• A notable shift toward on-farm storage (60.1% of total, +17.2% YoY) suggests producers are holding grain, potentially waiting for stronger pricing.

• Implied disappearance rose 8.4%, indicating solid demand in Q2 (feed, exports, or ethanol).

Soybeans

• Stocks were slightly above expectations (+38 million bushels), a neutral-to-slightly bearish signal.

• Total stocks are up 9.2% YoY, with a clear increase in off-farm holdings (+14.4%), signaling stronger commercial pipeline inventories.

• Implied disappearance was essentially flat (down <1%), suggesting demand has stabilized but is not accelerating.

Wheat

• Stocks came in just below expectations, but the deviation was minimal.

• Total stocks are up 4.9% YoY, indicating modest supply growth.

• The market remains heavily off farm dominated (77%), reflecting commercial control of inventories.

• Implied usage jumped 10.4%, a key bullish demand signal, especially for feed or export channels.

Bottom Line

• Corn: Bullish demand + farmer holding pattern = supportive structure

• Soybeans: Adequate supply, steady demand = neutral tone

• Wheat: Demand improvement offsets higher stocks = constructive outlook

— Agriculture markets yesterday: 

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price March 31	Change from March 30
Corn	May	$4.57 3/4	+2 cents
Soybeans	May	$11.71	+11 1/4 cents
Soybean Meal	May	$316.40	+$1.50
Soybean Oil	May	68.88 cents	+41 points
SRW Wheat	May	$6.16 1/4	+9 1/4 cents
HRW Wheat	May	$6.35 1/2	+9 1/4 cents
Spring Wheat	March	$6.58 1/2	+6 1/2 cents
Cotton	May	70.00 cents	-19 points
Live Cattle	June	$243.275	+$3.075
Feeder Cattle	May	$366.475	+$5.15
Lean Hogs	June	$105.05	-$0.825

FERTILIZER

— Fertilizer: where the NTE and broader trade picture really bites

The NTE report released by the USTR (link)doesn’t have a standalone “fertilizer chapter,” but it threads fertilizer risks throughout trade policy, export restrictions, and input markets — and when you connect it with current market dynamics, it becomes one of the most consequential ag issues.

1) Export restrictions are the biggest structural risk

The most direct fertilizer-related finding in the NTE is export controls by major producers — especially Russia:

• Russia has imposed export bans, quotas, and duties on:
  • Nitrogen fertilizers 
  • Sulfur (critical for phosphate production) 
• These restrictions have been repeatedly extended through 2025–2027 

Why it matters:

• Sulfur is a key input for phosphate fertilizer 
• Limiting sulfur exports effectively tightens global phosphate supply 
• This is a classic upstream choke point — not just fertilizer, but fertilizer inputs 

2) China quietly tightening the market

Even where the NTE is more implicit, China plays a major role:

• China has curbed phosphate exports to prioritize domestic supply 
• Combined with Russia restrictions, that removes two of the world’s biggest suppliers 
   

Translation for U.S. agriculture:

• Less global supply → higher prices 
• More volatility → harder forward purchasing decisions 

3) U.S. trade policy is also part of the constraint

This is where things get politically sensitive — and important:

• Countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate (in place since 2021) are still active 
• These duties have limited imports into the U.S. market 
   

At the same time:

• Farm groups are actively pushing to suspend or ease those duties to increase supply; President Trump is mulling an emergency waiver to suspend the duties ahead of the coming late-summer, early fall review of the duties 
   

Bottom Line: Fertilizer tightness is not just global — it’s partially policy-driven domestically 

4) Middle East supply chain = systemic vulnerability

The NTE doesn’t explicitly focus on the war, but it flags how trade barriers interact with supply risk — and the current environment amplifies that:

• ~50% of global sulfur supply comes from the Middle East 
• The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for urea, ammonia, and sulfur 
• Disruptions there are now:
  • Driving 30–40% fertilizer price increases 
  • Constraining both nitrogen and phosphate simultaneously 

This is key:

• 2022 was nitrogen (natural gas) 
• 2026 is nitrogen + phosphate + sulfur at once 

5) Trade barriers amplify—not cause—the crisis

The NTE framework helps explain something important:

Fertilizer problems today are not just supply shocks — they’re policy-amplified shocks:
 

Three layers of pressure:

• Export controls (Russia, China) 
• Import barriers / duties (U.S. Morocco phosphate case) 
• Geopolitical chokepoints (Hormuz) 
   

Together, they:

• Reduce available supply 
• Fragment global trade flows 
• Increase price volatility 

6) Direct implications for U.S. farmers

This is where it ties back to the ag sector:

• Fertilizer costs have jumped sharply → squeezing margins 
• Roughly 80% of U.S. phosphorus is used on corn and soybeans 
• High nitrogen costs are already:
  • Shifting acreage toward soybeans 
  • Pressuring corn plantings 

And importantly:

• Input inflation (not crop prices) is becoming the dominant risk driver for 2026 

7) Strategic takeaway (this is the big one)

The NTE + current market signals point to a structural shift:

Fertilizer is now behaving like energy markets:

• Geopolitically sensitive 
• Policy-constrained 
• Concentrated supply 

You’re seeing:

• Russia acting as a swing supplier 
• China controlling exports 
• U.S. debating whether to treat fertilizer as strategic infrastructure 

Bottom Line: The NTE shows fertilizer risk is less about tariffs — and more about control.
 

Key themes:

1. Export restrictions (Russia, China) are tightening supply 
2. U.S. trade policy (Morocco duties) is limiting flexibility 
3. Geopolitics (Hormuz) is amplifying both 
    

Net effect: Fertilizer is becoming one of the most policy-sensitive inputs in global agriculture — with direct implications for U.S. yields, acreage decisions, and food inflation.

FARM POLICY

— USDA/Interior pact aims to streamline grazing permits on public lands

New agreement seeks to cut bureaucratic delays, expand access, and strengthen rancher–agency coordination across the West

A new memorandum of understanding (MOU) between USDA and the Department of the Interior is designed to ease regulatory hurdles for ranchers grazing livestock on federal lands, marking a coordinated push by the Trump administration to improve land-use efficiency and rural economic resilience.

The agreement focuses on aligning agency processes to reduce delays in grazing permit approvals, increase transparency, and improve interagency coordination — long-standing pain points for producers operating on public lands.

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall praised the move, highlighting its potential to expand access to high-quality grazing acreage while reinforcing the role of ranchers in land stewardship. “Public lands offer quality grazing grounds for livestock, which in turn reduces wildfire risk and contributes to the vitality of rural communities across the West,” Duvall said, underscoring the dual economic and environmental benefits of expanded grazing access.

The MOU comes as federal agencies face pressure to modernize permitting systems and accelerate decision-making timelines. Ranchers have long cited delays and inconsistent standards between agencies — particularly where lands are jointly managed — as barriers to efficient operations. By streamlining approvals and clarifying agency roles, the agreement is expected to support livestock production at a time when policymakers are increasingly focused on domestic protein supply chains and rural economic stability.

The initiative also aligns with broader administration priorities to reduce regulatory burdens in agriculture while leveraging land management practices — such as grazing — to mitigate wildfire risks, particularly in drought-prone Western states.

TAX POLICY

— Tax refunds rise under Trump tax law, but fall short of White House promise

IRS data show broader participation and modest gains as new breaks on tips and overtime take effect

More U.S. taxpayers are receiving refunds this filing season — and those refunds are modestly larger — reflecting early impacts from President Donald Trump’s signature tax overhaul, now branded the Working Families Tax Cuts.

According to Internal Revenue Service data, average refunds are running about $350 higher than at the same point last year, with a greater share of filers qualifying for returns. The increase is largely tied to new provisions allowing workers to deduct or exclude portions of tipped income and overtime pay — a policy aimed at boosting take-home income for service-sector and hourly workers.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that nearly half of taxpayers filing so far have benefited from at least one of the law’s targeted tax breaks, underscoring the administration’s push to deliver immediate, visible relief.

However, the gains remain below expectations set by the White House. President Donald Trump had projected earlier this year that refunds would rise by roughly $1,000 on average — a benchmark current data has yet to approach.

The gap highlights both the phased nature of the new tax provisions and the uneven distribution of benefits, with the largest gains concentrated among workers eligible for the new income exclusions. It also reflects broader structural limits on how quickly tax changes translate into higher refunds, particularly for households with relatively stable withholding patterns.

Still, the uptick in refund size and participation suggests the law is beginning to filter through to taxpayers — offering incremental income support even as policymakers and markets assess its longer-term fiscal and economic effects.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Wednesday: oil rebounds toward $103 as markets parse Trump’s Iran exit signals

WTI extends record monthly gains despite fresh Gulf attacks, inventory surge, and uncertainty ahead of presidential address

WTI crude oil futures climbed back toward $103 per barrel on Wednesday, recovering from the prior session’s decline and continuing what is shaping up as a historic monthly rally, as markets balanced de-escalation signals from President Donald Trump against renewed geopolitical risks.

Brent is trading at just over $105, up 1.16%. 

Trump said U.S. forces could withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks and indicated a potential deal with Tehran remains possible, though not necessary to end the conflict. The remarks helped stabilize sentiment, but caution persisted as additional U.S. troops deployed to the region and Iranian officials stated no formal peace negotiations are underway, even as they signaled openness to ending the war under certain conditions.

Geopolitical tensions escalated further after Iranian drones struck fuel storage tanks at Kuwait International Airport, sparking a large fire and underscoring ongoing risks to critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

Market participants are now focused on Trump’s nationwide address later today, which could provide clearer direction on U.S. strategy and the trajectory of the conflict.

On the supply side, bearish pressure emerged from fresh inventory data, with the American Petroleum Institute reporting a sharp 10.263-million-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks last week — a reminder that underlying fundamentals remain volatile even as geopolitical developments dominate price action.

— Tuesday: Oil pulls back on ceasefire signals but posts historic monthly surge

Brent drops sharply on de-escalation headlines, though supply disruptions and tight fundamentals keep volatility elevated

Brent crude futures fell sharply Tuesday, with the June contract dropping more than $3 to settle at $103.97 per barrel, as reports suggested Iran may be open to ending the conflict under certain conditions. The move reversed earlier gains and underscored how sensitive markets remain to any indication of a potential ceasefire.

The expiring May Brent contract diverged from the broader pullback, settling up $5.57, 4.9%, at $118.35 as it neared expiration, with liquidity shifting into the June contract. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also declined, falling $1.50, or 1.5%, to $101.38.

Despite the late-month selloff, crude benchmarks posted historic gains in March. Front-month Brent surged roughly 64% on the month, while WTI climbed about 52% — among the strongest rallies on record — driven by escalating supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict.

Price action continues to hinge on shifting expectations around the war’s duration and the timing of any supply recovery. Reports pointing to a potential ceasefire triggered a swift unwind of the geopolitical risk premium, particularly as traders recalibrated expectations for flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, underlying fundamentals remain firmly supportive. Attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf have contributed to one of the most severe supply disruptions in recent history, with OPEC production posting a sharp month-over-month decline due to outages.

Volatility has remained elevated, especially around contract expiry, with wide intraday swings reflecting both geopolitical uncertainty and tight near-term supply conditions.

Bottom Line: While mitigating measures — including strategic reserve releases and potential sanctions adjustments — have been introduced, they are expected to offer only temporary relief. Even in a de-escalation scenario, the timeline to restore damaged infrastructure is likely to keep supplies constrained, leaving crude markets exposed to continued volatility in the weeks ahead.

—Ethanol in the USTR NTE report (link): Market access is the problem — not demand

1) Import restrictions are the biggest barrier (Thailand case = textbook)

The clearest ethanol example comes from Thailand — and it’s exactly the kind of barrier USTR is targeting:

• Thailand requires import permits for fuel ethanol 
• Approval is based on domestic supply conditions 
• In practice:
  • No import permits have been issued since 2005 
  • The system effectively blocks U.S. ethanol entirely 
     

Why it matters:

• Thailand is expanding biofuel blending (E20, biodiesel mandates) 
• But it is reserving the market for domestic producers 
   

This is the core NTE theme: Countries promote biofuels — but restrict imports to protect domestic agriculture.

2) Taxes used as a deterrent (Dominican Republic)

Another example shows a different tool — taxation:

• U.S. ethanol faces:
  • 10% internal tax 
  • Plus an excise tax (~$11 per liter) 

Result:

• Imports are technically allowed… 
• But economically non-competitive 
   

This is a classic “legal but unusable” market access barrier.

3) State control and monitoring can slow or block ethanol trade (Colombia)

The report flags procedural barriers that can hit ethanol alongside other commodities:

• Colombia allows industry-funded port inspectors 
• These observers can:
  • Access confidential data 
  • Potentially delay or block imports 
• Ethanol is explicitly included among affected products 
   

Translation: Even when tariffs are low, administrative friction can restrict trade 

4) Ethanol shows up in trade deals as a “priority unlock”

One of the most important signals in the NTE:

• Ethanol is repeatedly included in new trade agreements (ARTs):
  • Indonesia — tariff elimination includes ethanol 
  • Malaysia — expanded access for fuel ethanol 
  • Ecuador — new U.S.-specific quotas include ethanol 
     

Meaning:

• USTR sees ethanol as a high-value export growth sector 
• But one that requires negotiated access, not just market forces 

5) Japan — demand growth, but policy constraints

Japan is a different case — not blocking ethanol outright, but shaping demand:

• Biofuel target: 500 million liters minimum 
• Moving toward E10 gasoline by 2030 
• Expanding SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) use, including alcohol-based fuels 

BUT:

• Uses outdated carbon intensity rules 
• These may disadvantage U.S. ethanol feedstocks 
   

This is a subtler barrier:

• Not blocking imports 
• But tilting the market against U.S. product 

Big picture: What the NTE is really saying about ethanol
 

Ethanol is a “policy-controlled commodity”
 

Across countries, three consistent barriers show up:

1) Domestic industry protection

• Import licensing (Thailand) 
• Production mandates tied to local feedstocks 

2) Fiscal barriers

• Taxes/excise (Dominican Republic) 

3) Regulatory & administrative friction

• Port controls (Colombia) 
• Carbon scoring rules (Japan) 

Ethanol demand is growing — but access is gated

The contradiction the NTE highlights:

• Countries are:
  • Expanding biofuel mandates 
  • Pushing energy transition goals 
• But simultaneously:
  • Blocking imports 
  • Favoring domestic crops (sugarcane, palm, cassava, etc.) 

So: Global ethanol demand ≠ open market for U.S. ethanol

Why this matters for U.S. agriculture

This ties directly to corn and biofuels:

4. Ethanol = core demand driver for U.S. corn 
5. Export growth depends on:
   1. Trade policy (ARTs)
   2. Not just energy markets

And importantly:

Ethanol is one of the few ag products where:

• Domestic policy (RFS, E15) 
• AND foreign trade barriers
  are both equally binding constraints 

Bottom Line:The NTE shows ethanol is not a tariff story — it’s a market access story.

• Countries want biofuels — but on their own terms 
• U.S. ethanol faces: 
  • Import bans (de facto) 
  • Taxes 
  • Regulatory discrimination 
• Growth will come through: 
  • Bilateral deals (ARTs) 
  • Not multilateral liberalization

TRADE POLICY

— USTR flags expanding global trade barriers with direct hits to U.S. agriculture — China, SPS rules, and state controls in focus
2026 NTE report underscores rising non-tariff barriers, biotech restrictions, and import controls across key markets for U.S. farm exports
 

The 2026 National Trade Estimate (NTE) Report from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (link) provides a sweeping inventory of foreign trade barriers affecting U.S. exports — with agriculture squarely in focus across major markets including China, the European Union, India, Mexico, and emerging buyers in Asia and Africa. 
 

At its core, the report highlights how non-tariff barriers — particularly sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures, biotechnology restrictions, import licensing regimes, and state-controlled procurement — are increasingly shaping market access for U.S. farmers and agribusiness.

China remains central risk for U.S. agriculture

The structure and repeated references throughout the report reinforce a consistent theme: China’s use of non-market policies and SPS barriers remains one of the most consequential constraints on U.S. agricultural exports.
 

Across the report, USTR repeatedly flags:

• State-led industrial targeting and excess capacity distorting global markets 
• Opaque regulatory systems that delay approvals (particularly biotech traits and food safety certifications) 
• Data, licensing, and inspection barriers that can be selectively enforced 

These practices fall under what the report categorizes as “non-market policies and practices (NMPPs),” which create both economic and national security risks while undermining U.S. competitiveness.

For U.S. agriculture, China’s approach continues to influence:

• Soybean and corn biotech approvals 
• Meat and poultry plant certifications 
• Feed ingredient access and residue standards 

SPS and biotech barriers dominate global ag trade friction

A major throughline in the report is the expansion of SPS-related restrictions — often cited by USTR as lacking scientific justification.

Examples across key markets include:

• Algeria — outright ban on biotech seeds and burdensome certification requirements for animal products 
• Bangladesh — excessive testing requirements (including radioactivity and antibiotic certifications) and bans on meat imports 
• Australia — longstanding restrictions on pork and poultry tied to disease concerns 
• Angola — prohibition on genetically engineered crops and strict import certification rules 

These measures directly affect U.S. exports of:

• Corn and soybeans (biotech approvals) 
• Beef, pork, and poultry 
• Feed ingredients and dairy products 

USTR emphasizes that many of these policies are not science-based and function as de facto trade barriers.

Import controls and licensing hit grain and protein flows

Several countries highlighted in the report are tightening import licensing and quota systems, which disproportionately affect bulk agricultural commodities:

• Algeria
  • State grain agency maintains control over wheat imports 
  • Import forecasting requirements restrict unscheduled shipments 
• Angola
  • Import bans and licensing suspensions have affected up to 99% of U.S. agricultural exports at times 
• Bangladesh
  • Import permits for meat and poultry halted despite domestic shortages 

These policies create uncertainty for exporters and disrupt traditional trade flows, particularly for:

• Wheat 
• Corn 
• Poultry and beef 

Tariffs less dominant — but still targeted on ag goods

While tariffs are generally lower than in past decades, the report notes elevated agricultural tariff rates in several markets:

• Algeria: ~23.7% average agricultural tariffs 
• Angola: ~21.5% on ag goods 
• Bangladesh: ~17.7% 
   

More importantly, tariffs are often paired with:

• Supplemental duties 
• Import substitution policies 
• Local sourcing requirements
   

These compound the effective barrier to U.S. exports.

State-owned enterprises and procurement distort markets

Another key theme is the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in agricultural trade:

• Algeria’s state grain agency acts as exclusive importer of wheat and pulses 
• SOEs dominate procurement in multiple countries, often requiring domestic sourcing first 
• Government purchasing decisions can exclude U.S. suppliers without transparent criteria 

USTR highlights these practices as distorting competition and limiting market access.

Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs) aim to unlock ag exports

The report underscores that the Trump administration’s strategy has shifted toward bilateral Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ARTs) to reduce barriers.

Recent agreements or frameworks include:

• Argentina 
• Bangladesh 
• Indonesia 
• Vietnam 
• Malaysia 
   

These agreements aim to:

• Lower tariffs and SPS barriers 
• Expand access for U.S. agricultural goods 
• Address biotech and certification issues 

Bottom line for U.S. agriculture

The 2026 NTE report makes clear that market access challenges are increasingly regulatory — not just tariff-based.

Key risks for U.S. agriculture:

• Rising SPS and biotech restrictions 
• Import licensing and quota controls 
• State-directed purchasing and SOE dominance 
• Non-market policies, particularly in China 
   

Key opportunities:

• Bilateral trade agreements targeting ag barriers 
• Growing demand in emerging markets if restrictions ease 
   

For U.S. exporters, especially in grains, oilseeds, and protein, the report reinforces a central reality: Winning market access is now as much about regulatory alignment and enforcement as it is about price competitiveness.

CHINA

— China factory activity cools as cost pressures intensify

March PMI misses expectations as energy-driven inflation surges and supply constraints build

China’s RatingDog General Manufacturing PMI eased to 50.8 in March from 52.1 in February, signaling a slower pace of factory expansion and falling short of expectations for 51.6.

Production and new orders continued to grow, extending output gains to a fourth consecutive month, but both indicators showed a clear loss of momentum. Demand continued to outstrip supply, leading to a buildup in backlogs, while employment rose for a third straight month — the longest stretch of factory job growth since mid-2021.

On the supply side, firms increased purchasing activity and modestly rebuilt input inventories, though stocks of finished goods edged lower. Supplier delivery times deteriorated sharply, lengthening to the greatest extent since December 2022, pointing to renewed supply chain frictions.

Inflation pressures intensified across the sector. Input costs surged at the fastest pace since March 2022, while output prices rose to a four-year high, driven largely by higher energy costs linked to ongoing Middle East tensions.

Despite the softer headline reading and mounting cost pressures, manufacturers remained broadly optimistic about the year ahead, citing expectations for stronger demand, continued capacity investment, and supportive government policy.

WEATHER

— India braces for extreme heat as war-driven energy crunch intensifies

Power demand, fuel shortages, and weather risks converge — raising new concerns for agriculture and rural economies

India is heading into what could be one of its most challenging summers in recent years, as intensifying heat waves collide with an energy system already strained by the ongoing Iran conflict and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Forecasts from the India Meteorological Department show above-normal temperatures across much of the country through June, with heat wave days expected to spike in May and June. Meanwhile, the war-linked disruption of oil and natural gas flows is tightening fuel availability — raising the risk of electricity shortages just as demand peaks.

Government officials are already preparing for record power consumption, with peak demand projected to reach roughly 283 gigawatts. Coal — which accounts for nearly three-quarters of India’s electricity generation — is expected to carry the bulk of the load, as gas shortages and limited energy storage constrain flexibility.

Energy stress meets agriculture risk. The intersection of extreme heat and constrained energy supplies has direct and potentially severe implications for Indian agriculture — particularly during the critical pre-monsoon and early kharif planting periods.

1) Irrigation costs and diesel dependence rise

Much of India’s agriculture — especially in states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh — depends on groundwater irrigation powered by electric pumps or diesel generators.

• Power shortages could limit access to electric irrigation.

• Farmers may turn to diesel pumps, but fuel costs could surge if oil imports remain disrupted.

• This combination raises input costs sharply, particularly for water-intensive crops like rice and sugarcane.

2) Heat stress threatens crop yields

Above-normal temperatures — especially elevated nighttime lows — can significantly reduce crop productivity.

• Wheat harvesting, already underway, could see quality deterioration.

• Early planted crops may suffer moisture stress before monsoon rains arrive.

• Heat stress also impacts livestock productivity, particularly dairy yields.

3) Fertilizer and input supply risks deepen

India is heavily reliant on imported fertilizers — especially urea and phosphates — with a meaningful share historically sourced from the Gulf region.

• Disruptions in shipping and higher energy costs (a key input in fertilizer production) could tighten availability.

• Higher fertilizer prices would further pressure farm margins ahead of planting season.

4) Monsoon uncertainty compounds the outlook

The potential formation of an El Niño later this year adds another layer of risk.

• A weaker or delayed monsoon would increase reliance on irrigation.

• That, in turn, amplifies exposure to already strained power and fuel systems.

Broader market and policy implications. The emerging situation places Indian policymakers in a difficult position — balancing energy security, food production, and inflation control.

• Food inflation risk: Lower yields and higher input costs could push up prices for staples, feeding into broader inflation.

• Government intervention likely: Authorities may prioritize fuel allocation for agriculture, expand subsidies, or restrict exports of key commodities if domestic supplies tighten.

• Global ripple effects: As one of the world’s largest agricultural producers and importers, disruptions in India could influence global markets — particularly for rice, wheat, and fertilizer demand.

Bottom Line: India’s summer outlook is no longer just a weather story — it is a convergence of climate stress and geopolitical disruption. If heat waves intensify alongside prolonged energy constraints, the impact could extend well beyond power grids — directly into farm productivity, rural incomes, and global food markets.

— NWS outlook: Severe thunderstorms likely from the Midwest/Great Lakes to the Central and Southern Plains today and Wednesday… …Heavy snow and hazardous ice from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes late this week… …Snow and wintry precipitation expected in the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, and Northern Rockies.