Congress Out Until Mid-April; Focus on Iran
Lingering ag sector issues confront lawmakers when they return
| LINKS |
Link: Weekend Updates, April 3: Trump Gives Iran 48 Hours to Open
Strait of Hormuz or Unleash ‘All Hell’; Fighter Jet Crew Member
Remains Missing
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 4
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 4
Topics discussed on podcast:
Markets: Thursday closes and weekly change
Issues:
1. Prospective Plantings Report
2. Grain Stocks Report
3. Rice Outlook
4. War with Iran
5. Mexican cattle
6. MCOOL
7. EPA RFS (2026–2027 & 2028 outlook)
8. Trump FY 2027 budget proposals
9. Fertilizer
10. U.S. Jobs Report
11. Trump Fires Bondi, Replacement? Who’s Next?
| The Week Ahead: April 5, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Daring rescue behind enemy lines — U.S. recovers second downed airman in Iran: U.S. forces completed a high-risk rescue of a second downed F-15E crew member, with President Trump highlighting the operation as proof of U.S. air dominance despite rising aircraft losses in the conflict.
— Trump threatens strikes on Iranian infrastructure if Hormuz not reopened: President Trump warned U.S. attacks on Iran’s power and transport systems could begin within days as ceasefire talks stall and tensions escalate.
— JBS workers return to Colorado plant after strike pause as negotiations resume: Reuters reports workers ended a three-week strike to restart talks, with labor tensions unfolding amid record cattle prices and tight U.S. beef supplies.
WASHINGTON
— Washington focus shifts to Iran war and Trump FY 2027 budget during recess: Even as lawmakers leave Capitol Hill, geopolitical tensions and budget priorities dominate the agenda.
— Key issues dominate Easter recess despite congressional break: War developments, Cabinet changes, and policy fights keep Washington highly active.
— Iran war drives economic and military pressures: Oil prices surge above $100 and U.S. aircraft losses underscore escalating risks while inflation concerns grow.
— Pam Bondi ousted as Attorney General in Cabinet shakeup: Trump replaces Bondi with Todd Blanche, with political and legal fallout continuing in Washington.
— Warsh Fed nomination advances amid political conflict: Senate moves forward on Kevin Warsh despite legal disputes over Fed independence and a probe into Chair Jerome Powell.
— RFK Jr. faces looming HHS budget showdown: Lawmakers prepare to challenge proposed cuts and restructuring tied to the MAHA initiative.
— Trade policy tensions intensify one year after “Liberation Day”: Tariff battles, refund systems, and new metal tariffs highlight ongoing volatility in U.S. trade policy.
— States prepare legal challenge over voting rules: Democratic-led states plan lawsuits against Trump’s election-related executive actions.
— White House ballroom project faces legal uncertainty: A major renovation plan advances but is halted pending congressional approval.
— Farm bill faces delays and political hurdles: A “skinny” farm bill advances in the House but faces Senate challenges and SNAP-related disputes.
— E15 legislation remains stalled despite bipartisan support: Ethanol policy continues to face delays, with only temporary waivers keeping summer sales alive.
— Farm aid package under discussion amid sector stress: Lawmakers consider up to $15 billion in assistance as producers face high costs and weak prices.
— Bottom line — Congress will return to a post-Easter packed agenda: Budget fights, defense, and agriculture policy will dominate when lawmakers reconvene.
— Rutte heads to Washington as NATO strains deepen: Alliance divisions grow over Iran policy as Europe considers a limited Hormuz security role.
KEY EVENTS
— Week ahead features dense policy and geopolitical calendar: Events span Federal Reserve speeches, trade discussions, NATO issues, and Iran war-related forums.
ECONOMIC REPORTS
— Markets focus on inflation, Fed signals, and growth outlook: CPI, FOMC minutes, and PCE data will guide expectations as energy-driven inflation pressures build.
AG REPORTS
— USDA data to shape grain markets and global trade outlook: WASDE, Export Sales, and Crop Progress reports will drive expectations for supply, demand, and planting conditions.
ENERGY REPORTS
— Heavy slate of EIA data to steer oil and gas markets: Inventory data, outlook reports, and rig counts will provide critical signals amid heightened geopolitical volatility.
| TOP STORIES—Daring rescue behind enemy lines — U.S. recovers second downed airman in IranTrump touts “overwhelming air dominance” as high-risk mission highlights escalating aerial losses in ongoing war U.S. forces successfully rescued a second American airman shot down over Iran, marking the end of a high-stakes, multi-day search-and-rescue operation following the April 3 downing of an F-15E Strike Eagle. President Donald Trump announced the recovery early Sunday, declaring “WE GOT HIM!” in a Truth Social post and describing the mission as one of the most daring rescue operations in U.S. military history. According to Trump, dozens of aircraft were involved in tracking and extracting the downed officer — a colonel — who had evaded Iranian forces while hiding in mountainous terrain. The president said both crew members from the downed jet have now been recovered, noting the first rescue had been kept secret to avoid jeopardizing the second operation. Despite sustaining unspecified injuries, the second airman is expected to recover. Trump emphasized that no additional U.S. personnel were killed or wounded during the rescues, framing the mission as evidence of U.S. air superiority over Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command has not publicly detailed the operation, and the Pentagon has yet to formally comment. The incident underscores mounting risks in the Iran conflict. Multiple U.S. aircraft losses have been reported in recent weeks, including additional F-15E shootdowns, a fatal KC-135 crash over Iraq that killed six airmen, and damage to an F-35 fighter. Unmanned MQ-9 Reaper drones have also been repeatedly downed. Iranian state media has further claimed that its forces struck a U.S. A-10 aircraft shortly after the April 3 incident, though U.S. officials have not confirmed that report. Since the war began on Feb. 28, United States Central Command reports that at least 13 U.S. service members have been killed and more than 300 wounded — highlighting the intensifying toll of the conflict even as the U.S. demonstrates its ability to recover personnel deep inside hostile territory.—President Donald Trump warned that U.S. forces could begin striking Iran’s power plants and bridges as early as Tuesday if Tehran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Why it matters: Trump’s 10-day ultimatum is set to expire Monday. He has previously threatened broader attacks on Iran’s energy, water, and oil infrastructure if no agreement is reached to restore transit through the critical waterway. Tehran has accused Trump of preparing to commit war crimes and has threatened retaliatory strikes on infrastructure in Israel and across Gulf states. Meanwhile, over the past ten days, U.S. and Iranian officials have engaged in indirect talks — facilitated by Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey — aimed at securing a ceasefire in exchange for reopening the strait. Those negotiations have yet to produce meaningful progress.—JBS workers return to Colorado plant after strike pause as negotiations resumeReuters reports labor standoff eases in Greeley facility amid record cattle costs and tight U.S. beef supply Workers at a beef plant operated by JBS in Greeley, Colorado have agreed to return to work, ending a three-week strike after the company committed to resume negotiations, according to reporting by Reuters. The union representing roughly 3,800 workers said talks will restart April 9–10 following the walkout, which was driven by demands for higher wages tied to inflation and an end to employee charges for replacing protective equipment. Kim Cordova, president of the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7, said workers remain unified in pushing for a contract that ensures livable wages and stronger protections. Meanwhile, JBS confirmed there has been no change to its prior offer but said it is preparing to restart and ramp up operations at the Greeley plant in the coming week. The labor dispute comes at a sensitive moment for the U.S. beef industry. Beef prices have hit record levels in 2026 as the national cattle herd has shrunk to its lowest level in more than 75 years. That tightening supply has increased costs for meatpackers—even as higher retail prices have supported margins. The strike also compounded broader capacity constraints across the sector. Tyson Foods recently shuttered a Nebraska beef plant and scaled back operations at a Texas facility, reducing overall processing throughput at a time when packers are typically trying to maximize plant utilization to offset high fixed costs. Upshot: With negotiations set to resume, the outcome could carry broader implications for labor dynamics and cost structures across the U.S. meatpacking industry. |
| —WASHINGTON |
—Lawmakers are on their Easter recess, but Washington’s attention will remain on the war with Iran and President Trump’s FY 2027 budget proposals released Friday, April 3. The conflict with Iran will remain front and center for any tangible progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz after continued back-and-forth. Attention will also remain on the downed U.S. F-15 E, with one of the two crewmen rescued.
—Key issues dominating Washington during Easter recess. From the Iran war to a fired attorney general, the Trump White House keeps Washington buzzing even as Congress is home for the holiday. By all indications, Easter recess is no vacation for Washington. While lawmakers have scattered from Capitol Hill to their home districts, a cascade of high-stakes developments has kept the nation’s capital at the center of the national conversation heading into the week of April 6. From an ongoing war in the Middle East to a dramatic Cabinet shakeup, the agenda is anything but quiet.
—The Iran war and its economic fallout. The most pressing issue shadowing Washington this week is the U.S. military campaign against Iran. President Trump delivered a prime-time address to the nation on April 1, offering an update on the conflict and telling the American people that the U.S. is “on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly.” He warned, however, that the U.S. would strike Iran “extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,” while simultaneously leaving the door open to a diplomatic resolution, saying that “discussions are ongoing.”
The war’s economic ripple effects are being felt across the country. Oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel following Trump’s remarks, with U.S. crude rising to $102.36 per barrel. Economists warn those prices could climb further. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters recently that elevated inflation readings “largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs,” and warned that inflation could worsen further as the U.S./Iran conflict drives global energy prices higher.
The conflict has also taken a more dangerous turn on the battlefield. Two U.S. military planes were shot down in separate incidents on Friday, with one crew member rescued in Iran while the whereabouts of at least one other remained unknown — marking the first time U.S. aircraft had been downed since the conflict began nearly five weeks ago.
—Pam Bondi out as Attorney General. Washington was also absorbing the shock of a sudden cabinet departure. President Trump announced that Pam Bondi is out as attorney general, ending a contentious tenure in which she oversaw large-scale firings of career Justice Department employees and moved aggressively to investigate the president’s perceived political enemies. Trump named Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche as acting attorney general, and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle vowed the change would not slow their push for government transparency, particularly around the ongoing scrutiny of files related to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation.
The ag sector is attuned to this issue because one of the possible replacements being mentioned include EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.
—Warsh Fed nomination advances amid political and legal crosscurrents. The Senate Banking Committee is moving forward with an April 16 hearing for Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, despite intensifying political and legal complications tied to a separate investigation into the central bank.
The nomination is unfolding alongside a Justice Department probe into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, centered on allegations he misled Congress about costly renovations to Fed facilities. Powell has strongly rejected the claims, arguing the investigation is an attempt to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates.
The parallel tracks have created a direct conflict for the Trump administration: advancing Warsh’s confirmation while also supporting a probe that some lawmakers say threatens the Fed’s independence. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has said he will block the nomination until concerns about political interference are resolved, despite praising Warsh’s qualifications.
Meanwhile, a federal judge — James Boasberg — has dealt a setback to the investigation, ruling there is no evidence of fraud and quashing subpoenas tied to the case. However, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro plans to appeal, leaving the probe’s future uncertain.
The nomination has also drawn Democratic criticism, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) warning Warsh could align too closely with White House economic priorities.
—HHS budget showdown looms as RFK Jr. prepares for congressional hearing as lawmakers are set to press the Health Secretary on sweeping cuts, MAHA overhaul, and agency restructuring.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is expected to face intense scrutiny in an upcoming congressional budget hearing, likely in April, as lawmakers weigh the Trump administration’s proposed fiscal year 2027 overhaul of the department. The hearing will mark one of the first major opportunities for Congress to directly question Kennedy on both funding cuts and his broader “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) restructuring plan.
At the center of the hearing is a proposed reduction in overall HHS funding, alongside a significant reorganization of the agency’s core functions. The plan calls for consolidating multiple public health programs under a newly envisioned framework, while scaling back funding for research institutions and administrative programs. Supporters argue the changes are aimed at streamlining operations and prioritizing preventive health, while critics warn they could weaken the federal government’s public health infrastructure.
Lawmakers from both parties are expected to focus heavily on the proposed cuts to biomedical research, particularly funding tied to the National Institutes of Health, as well as potential impacts on disease prevention, vaccine programs, and rural healthcare delivery. Democrats are likely to challenge whether the MAHA initiative risks politicizing public health priorities, while Republicans may press Kennedy on implementation details and cost efficiency.
Meanwhile, Kennedy is expected to defend the proposal as a necessary realignment of federal health policy — shifting away from what he has described as a reactive, treatment-focused system toward one centered on nutrition, chronic disease prevention, and environmental health factors. The administration has framed the budget as part of a broader effort by Donald Trump to reshape federal agencies and reduce overall government spending.
The hearing also comes amid heightened political stakes, with healthcare policy emerging as a key issue ahead of the 2026 midterm cycle. Lawmakers will likely use the session not only to examine fiscal details but also to draw broader contrasts over the future direction of U.S. health policy.
Meanwhile, with Congress ultimately responsible for appropriations, the proposal faces a long and uncertain path forward. The upcoming hearing is expected to set the tone for what could become one of the most contentious budget battles of the year.
—Trade policy tensions. April 2 marked the one-year anniversary of “Liberation Day,” and the economic verdict is generating debate. The Trump administration has enacted more than 50 different trade policy changes since last April, a historic whipsaw that turned the global trading system upside down in ways that experts say appear irreversible. The effective tariff rate — a measure of how much the U.S. actually collects in duties as a share of total imports — started 2025 at around 2% but ultimately peaked at 21% in the days following Liberation Day, before the Supreme Court struck down a portion of the levies.
CBP’s new refund system. The Customs and Border Protection (CBP) outlined a new system within its Automated Commercial Environment platform called the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) module. Through CAPE, importers or their brokers can submit refund requests via a CSV file upload identifying relevant entry summaries; duties would then be recalculated as if the IEEPA tariffs had never been applied, and refunds would be processed electronically to a designated bank account. The various components of CAPE are between 45% and 80% complete and continuing to be tested and developed.
Given the scale involved — roughly $166 billion paid by over 330,000 importers — experts warn the process could take months or even years to fully implement. By comparison, a similar Court of International Trade (CIT) order requiring refunds of the Harbor Maintenance Tax took four years before Customs published a procedure and processed approximately $730 million in refunds across 100,000 claims.
There’s also a parallel legal fight brewing. A wave of consumer class action lawsuits has swept across multiple industries, targeting major retailers and consumer goods companies. The suits allege that companies raised prices on consumers to offset tariff costs but are now positioned to receive government refunds — effectively being made whole twice, once by customers and once by the government.
The Trade Liberation anniversary also comes amid fresh action. On April 2, Trump signed a new proclamation strengthening tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and copper, establishing a flat 50% tariff on articles made almost entirely of those metals and a 25% tariff on derivative articles substantially composed of them.
—A voting rights fight and states’ legal action. Meanwhile, a new flashpoint over election law is brewing. More than 20 Democratic-led states are moving to sue the Trump administration over an executive order Trump signed directing the Department of Homeland Security to work with the Social Security Administration on voter eligibility lists and seeking to restrict absentee ballot distribution. Led by the attorneys general of California, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Washington, the suit argues that the Constitution empowers states and Congress — not the president — to determine who is eligible to vote by mail.
—A White House ballroom, and a judge’s order. And in a story that blends architecture with politics, a key federal planning commission voted to approve Trump’s proposal to build a 90,000-square-foot ballroom where the White House East Wing once stood — even as the future of the project remains uncertain following a federal judge’s ruling ordering construction to halt within two weeks pending congressional approval.
—Here’s a rundown of where Congress stands on agricultural issues heading into the Easter recess:
•The “skinny” farm bill and its long journey. Congress last passed a farm bill in 2018, which expired in 2023. Since then, lawmakers have kept many programs running through temporary extensions, and the 2018 Farm Bill has now been extended twice. The latest attempt is the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, which some are calling a “skinny” farm bill. It has earned that label because the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed last year already included increased funding for Title I commodity subsidies, crop insurance, and other programs — leaving less for the new farm bill to cover, though the committee draft still runs 802 pages.
On March 5, the House Agriculture Committee voted 34–17 — including all GOP members and seven Democrats — to advance the bill after a markup hearing lasting more than 20 hours. The bill now awaits a full House floor vote. House Ag Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) told reporters the bill will not be ready for a floor vote immediately after Easter, but that it should advance soon. He said he is currently consulting with Democrats and various caucuses, adding, “When I check the box on those, I think in the near future here — it’ll be after Easter obviously.”
On the Senate side, the Senate Ag Committee has yet to advance its own farm bill framework. Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) has said he wants to get the farm bill done in “weeks, not months,” but the path in the Senate is steeper — the chamber requires 60 votes for passage. Several obstacles may continue to impede progress, including slim margins in both chambers, ongoing partisan disagreement over SNAP provisions included in last year’s reconciliation law, political pressures from the 2026 midterm election cycle, and the looming expiration of the extended 2018 Farm Bill on Sept. 30.
The SNAP fault line. One of the biggest sticking points is nutrition policy. The traditional coalition that has historically united agriculture interests and anti-hunger advocates to pass farm bills is under severe strain following last year’s reconciliation law, which cut SNAP and shifted costs to state governments. Senate Ag Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) has said the farm bill must correct what she sees as unfairness in how SNAP cost-sharing was structured in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, while Boozman has rejected delaying those state-level cost provisions.
•E15: still stuck. The effort to permanently authorize year-round sales of E15 ethanol — a priority for farm-state lawmakers for years — remains stalled despite remarkable bipartisan support. For the fifth consecutive year, EPA was forced to issue an emergency waiver to allow summer E15 sales to continue throughout 2026, as the ethanol industry continues to wait for Congress to make those sales permanent nationwide.
The latest setback came in January, when E15 language was stripped from a must-pass spending package. In its place, Congress created a new “E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council” to develop potential legislative proposals — a move the Renewable Fuels Association called “extremely disappointing,” saying it was “kicking the can down the road” and just another “foot-dragging” exercise. That council, co-chaired by Reps. Randy Feenstra of Iowa and Stephanie Bice of Oklahoma, then missed its own February deadline to release legislation.
More recently, an attempt on March 4 to add E15 language directly to the House farm bill during committee markup also failed.
The Iran war has added a new urgency to the debate. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said that permanent E15 authorization could boost corn demand by roughly 2.4 billion bushels annually, and called the latest EPA waiver welcome but insufficient.
The stalemate largely comes down to a fight between corn-state and oil-state lawmakers over refinery exemptions: Boozman said he supports E15 in principle but is concerned about the survival of small refiners, including the only refinery in Arkansas that produces jet fuel and gasoline, saying “an entire supply chain” could be lost.
•Farm aid and disaster assistance. Farmers are facing what lawmakers have repeatedly called a “perfect storm.” Congressional agriculture leaders describe a convergence of high input costs, weak commodity prices, labor shortages, and lingering trade disruptions. In response, House Ag Committee Chairman Thompson is working with Senate leadership on a $15 billion farm aid package — roughly $10 billion for row crops and $5 billion for specialty crops, though Thompson has publicly pushed for as much as $10 billion for specialty crops alone, plus $200 million for sawmills. The legislation could also carry E15 provisions.
On disaster assistance specifically, the House farm bill draft expands disaster programs such as the Tree Assistance Program, includes plant pests under the definition of “natural disaster,” and creates a framework for USDA to provide consistent disaster aid to specialty crops. It also creates standing authority to provide ad hoc disaster assistance through block grants to states. However, critics note that some farmers who experienced losses as far back as 2023 are still waiting for aid to arrive through existing programs, and some farm advocacy groups argue the bill leans too heavily on ad hoc disaster spending rather than strengthening the underlying farm safety net.
— Bottom Line: Congress will return to a full plate. When lawmakers return from recess, mid-month, they will face a packed agenda. The Senate is still working through Trump’s reconciliation priorities, defense spending proposals are circulating, and the FY 2027 budget is set for hearings with Cabinet members.
Even during recess, House Republican leaders were holding calls with members. The holiday break may be short, but the list of unfinished business is anything but.
—Rutte heads to Washington as NATO strains deepen over Iran conflict
Trump administration questions alliance reliability while Europe weighs limited Hormuz security role
Mark Rutte is set to visit Washington this week amid escalating tensions within NATO, as divisions widen over support for U.S. operations tied to the Iran conflict. The visit comes after sharp criticism from Donald Trump, who has openly questioned the reliability of European allies following their reluctance to deploy naval assets or grant overflight and basing access for U.S. missions.
Trump’s remarks — echoed by Marco Rubio — have raised fresh doubts about Washington’s long-term commitment to NATO, putting additional strain on trans-Atlantic relations and the alliance’s credibility at a critical moment.
Meanwhile, European governments are advancing discussions around a potential European-led coalition to help restore maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities subside. Early plans suggest a narrowly defined mission focused on securing a ceasefire, clearing naval mines, and safeguarding tanker traffic — while deliberately avoiding direct military confrontation with Iran.
Further operational planning is expected in the coming weeks, though any European deployment remains contingent on de-escalation in the region, underscoring the growing divergence between U.S. expectations and European risk tolerance.
| —KEY EVENTS |
Mon., April 6
• War impact on global energy infrastructure. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “How the War in Iran is Impacting Global Energy Infrastructure.”
• Leadership in politics. Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics discussion on “Leadership in American Politics.”
Tue., April 7
• Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on the Economic Outlook and the Labor Market in Detroit. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak.
• Trade policy. Hudson Institute discussion on “The Future of Trade Policy.”
•Crude and war in Iran. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on “Crude Diplomacy: Oil and the Iran War.”
• NATO summit issues. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “U.S./Turkish Defense Relations and the Upcoming NATO Summit.”
• Small business and the bioeconomy. Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee field hearing on “Fueling Innovation: The Role of Small Businesses in America’s Bioeconomy
• World Bank focus. Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center discussion on “the World Bank Group’s jobs agenda and global development,” part of its “IMF- (International Monetary Fund) World Bank Week at the Atlantic Council.”
•Argentina focus. Atlantic Council conference on “Argentina’s turning point: Accelerating economic takeoff.”
•Global energy outlook. Resources for the Future virtual discussion on “Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius.”
•Protecting U.S. communications. Hudson Institute discussion on “Protecting U.S. Communications: Strengthening Supply Chains and Countering Foreign Risk.”
• MENA issues. Henry L. Stimson Center discussion on “Europe, North Africa, and the Mediterranean.”
•Artemis moon trip update. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) mission status briefing for the Artemis II mission around the Moon.
•Economic growth policy reforms. Georgetown University Global Policy Lecture on “policy reforms that support job creation, unlock private investment, and drive economic growth.”
•Global outlook. Council on Foreign Relations virtual lecture on “America and the World at 50: Where Things Stand and Where They’re Headed.”
•China Town Hall. George Washington University (Elliott School of International Affairs and the National Committee on U.S./China Relations hold a “China Town Hall” event on the current U.S./China relationship reverberates at the local level — in our towns, states, and nation.
Wed., April 8
• War and India-Middle East-Europe issues. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) During a Time of War.”
•U.S./Mexico international bridges and crossings. State Department meeting of the U.S./Mexico Binational Bridges and Border Crossings Group to discuss operational matters involving existing and proposed international bridges and border crossings and their related infrastructure and to exchange technical information as well as views on policy, runs through Thursday.
•Farm Credit Insurance Corp. Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation meeting of the board of directors with several financial areas and insured obligations.
•AI in government field operations. Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion on “Accelerating Decision-Making: The Power of Edge AI in Government Field Operations.”
•Artemis moon mission update. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) mission status briefing for the Artemis II mission around the Moon.
•AI risks. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion on “Data, Analytics, Risk, and AI.”
Thur., April 9
• Global economic prospects. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2026.”
•Farm Credit System conditions. Farm Credit Administration meeting on the quarterly report on economic conditions and Farm Credit System condition and performance.
•Global prosperity. Atlantic Council Global Prosperity Forum.
•Antidumping from China. Georgetown University Law Center and the Institute of International Economic Law hearing of the U.S. Court of International Trade on a case involving an antidumping duty investigation concerning imports from China.
•Commercial diplomacy. Atlantic Council discussion on “Commercial Diplomacy to Advance U.S. Interests Worldwide.”
•Trump’s second term. Arab Center Washington DC 11th annual conference on “Trump’s Second Term: Upending Democracy, Development, and Diplomacy.”
•Evolution in AI. Morning Consult virtual discussion on “The evolution of AI in communications — and what comes next…”
•Peace in Gaza. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) virtual discussion on “What Path Forward? The Board of Peace, Gaza, and the Future of Multilateralism.”
• U.S.-China-Taiwan relations. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion on “Cross-Strait Stakes: Managing U.S.-Taiwan-China Triangular Relations in 2026.”
• China and cyber capabilities. Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland forum on China’s development of offensive cyber capabilities, counterspace capabilities and precision conventional missiles.
• Working in the U.S. Economic Policy Institute virtual State of Working America Q1 Economic Briefing.
• Artemis moon mission briefing. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) virtual mission status briefing for the Artemis II mission around the Moon.
• Cuba issues. International Institute for Strategic Studies discussion on “What’s Next for Cuba?”
•Iran situation. Institute of World Politics discussion on “The Realities of Iran.”
Fri., April 10
• Forestry issues. U.S. Forest Service virtual meeting of the National Urban and Community Forestry Advisory Council.
•Development cooperation. Center for Strategic and International Studies “Futures Summit: A New Era of Development Cooperation.”
•Iran and Lebanon. Middle East Institute discussion on “Iran, Hizballah, and Lebanon’s Future.”
| —ECONOMIC REPORTS |
— In the U.S., focus shifts to key macro releases, including the FOMC minutes, CPI, ISM Services PMI, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and the PCE report. Investors will also monitor the start of earnings season, with results from Delta Air Lines among the early highlights. Globally, attention will turn to China’s CPI data, Germany’s factory orders, and the latest monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of India.
—Attention will center on the FOMC minutes, with markets looking for insight into how Fed policymakers are weighing the Middle East conflict’s impact on growth, inflation, and the rate outlook.
The data calendar is busy, highlighted by the March CPI report, which is expected to show a sharp inflation pickup driven by higher energy prices tied to the Iran conflict. Headline prices are forecast to rise 0.9% month over month, pushing the annual rate to 3.4% — the highest since April 2024 — while core inflation is seen edging up to 2.7% from 2.5%.
The ISM Services PMI is likely to signal a moderation in service sector activity, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is expected to show further deterioration in April.
The PCE report is also due, with personal spending projected to accelerate modestly while income growth slows.
Additional releases include the PCE price index, durable goods orders, factory orders, wholesale inventories for February, the final reading of Q4 GDP, and corporate profits.
Meanwhile, earnings season begins to ramp up, with results due from Delta Air Lines and Constellation Brands. Elsewhere in North America, Canada will report employment data, the Ivey PMI, and the S&P Global Services PMI, while Mexico’s inflation and consumer confidence readings will offer a gauge of economic sentiment. In Brazil, key releases include CPI, the S&P Global Services PMI, retail sales, business confidence, and trade data.
Mon., April 6
• ISM Services Index for March.
Tue., April 7
• Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in orders.
Wed., April 8
• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
• FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 17-18
Thur., April 9
• Initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 200 thousand from 202 thousand last week.
•Personal Income and Outlays, February 2026. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.4%. Core PCE prices are expected to be up 3.0% YoY.
• Gross Domestic Product, (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 4th Quarter and Year 2025. The consensus is that real GDP increased 0.7% annualized in Q4, unchanged from the second estimate.
Fri., April 10
•Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.4% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 2.7% YoY.
• University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary for April).
| —AG REPORTS |
—USDA’s key reports this week to drive markets
WASDE, Export Sales, and Crop Progress headline a pivotal data slate for grains and global trade
The coming USDA reporting week is anchored by a handful of market-moving releases that will shape expectations for supply, demand, and early-season crop conditions.
The week begins with Crop Progress, offering the first meaningful look at planting pace and early crop conditions across major producing states. This report will be closely watched for how quickly corn and soybean planting is advancing relative to historical averages, especially given ongoing weather variability. Traders typically use this data to gauge early yield potential and weather risk premiums.
Meanwhile, Export Sales, released Thursday, remains the timeliest indicator of global demand for U.S. commodities. Weekly sales — including key buyers and any cancellations — will be scrutinized for signals on China and broader export competitiveness, particularly as geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions continue to influence trade flows.
The centerpiece of the week is Thursday with the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. This monthly update provides a comprehensive reset of U.S. and global balance sheets, including production, exports, and ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Any revisions — especially to South American production, U.S. export projections, or global stock levels — could trigger significant movement in futures markets.
Taken together, these reports will define the near-term narrative: early U.S. crop development, strength of export demand, and the global supply outlook — all critical drivers as markets navigate both seasonal uncertainty and heightened geopolitical risk.
Mon., April 6
• AMS. Export Inspections ERS: US Agricultural Trade Data Update NASS: Crop Progress
Tue., April 7
• NASS: Hatchery Production – Annual
Wed., April 8
• NASS: Broiler Hatchery | Crop Production Historical Track Records
Thur., April 9
• FAS: Export Sales | Cotton: World Markets and Trade | Grains: World Markets and Trade | Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade | World Agricultural Production WAOB: WASDE NASS:Crop Production | Slaughter Weekly
Fri., April 10
• ERS: Meat Price Spreads | Season-Average Price Forecasts | Wheat Data | Feed Grains Database NASS: Peanut Prices
| —ENERGY REPORTS |
—Key energy reports to watch this week: EIA data, outlook reports, and rig activity dominate a pivotal week for oil and gas markets
Energy markets face a data-heavy week, with several high-impact reports set to shape both near-term price direction and longer-term supply expectations. The focus will center on U.S. government data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), alongside key indicators of production activity and market positioning.
The week begins with the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, a critical forward-looking report that provides updated projections for global oil demand, U.S. production, and price expectations. Traders and analysts closely watch this release for shifts in supply-demand balances, particularly as geopolitical risks tied to the Iran conflict continue to influence energy markets.
Midweek, attention turns to the EIA Petroleum Status Report, the most closely followed weekly indicator of U.S. oil fundamentals. The report details changes in crude inventories, gasoline and distillate stocks, refinery utilization, and trade flows. Any significant deviations from expectations can trigger immediate volatility in crude and refined product prices.
Also on Wednesday, the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026 offers a longer-term perspective, outlining projections for U.S. energy production, consumption, and fuel mix through 2050. The report is closely scrutinized for policy assumptions and structural shifts across oil, natural gas, and renewable energy sectors.
On Thursday, the EIA Natural Gas Storage Report provides the key weekly signal for gas markets, tracking injections and withdrawals from storage. With seasonal demand shifts underway, the data will be critical in assessing supply tightness and price direction heading into the summer.
The week wraps up with the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, a widely used barometer of drilling activity across the United States. Changes in the number of active rigs offer insight into future production trends, particularly in shale basins, and serve as an early indicator of how producers are responding to current price levels.
Overall, the combination of near-term inventory data, forward-looking outlooks, and upstream activity metrics makes this a consequential week for energy markets, with implications for crude oil, natural gas, and refined product pricing.
Mon., April 6
• Deadline set by President Donald Trump for Iran to reach a deal or face strikes on power plants | Holidays: China. Also, multiple countries, including Australia, the UK, France, Spain and Germany, observe Easter Monday
Tue., April 7
• API US inventory report | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report | Holiday: Hong Kong
Wed., April 8
• EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | BTC Aceri loading programs due (May) | EIA issues Annual Energy Outlook 2026
Thur., April 9
• EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | Brent May options expire | Holidays: Philippines; Israel; Norway; Mexico; Venezuela
Fri., April 10
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count | ICE weekly Commitments of Tradersreport for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | ICE April gasoil futures expire
