U.S. Inflation Reaccelerates in March as Energy Shock Drives Sharp Monthly Spike
Plains drought deepens while Corn Belt faces planting delays amid wet pattern | Focus on Saturday Mideast negotiations
| LINKS |
Link: The Hidden Barrier to E15 Expansion
Link: Ethanol’s Reality Check — Where Biofuels Actually Lower Prices
at the Pump
Link: U.S. Fertilizer Strategy: Learn From China — But Don’t Copy It
Link: Rollins Pulled Back to Washington as White House Activity Intensifies
Link: Mike Sands podcast: Cattle Markets Stabilize After Volatility, but
Fundamentals Signal Caution
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 4
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 4
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April 10, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— U.S. inflation reaccelerates in March: Energy-driven CPI surge tied to Iran conflict pushes inflation to a two-year high, complicating Fed policy outlook.
— War with Iran update — ceasefire holds, tensions persist: Fragile truce masks ongoing Hormuz disruption, regional conflict risks, and elevated energy market stress.
— Hormuz remains choked despite ceasefire: Bloomberg reports shipping paralysis continues as Iran maintains tight control over critical global energy corridor.
— Rubio to visit India as ties rebound: Planned May trip signals renewed U.S./India engagement amid shifting South Asia diplomacy.
— Starmer breaks with Trump on energy crisis: UK Prime Minister links Iran war and global oil disruption to rising domestic costs in sharp rebuke.
— Warsh Fed nomination delayed: Procedural holdups and GOP opposition tied to DOJ probe cloud Fed leadership transition timeline.
— JBS Greeley plant faces lawsuit: Colorado regulators accused of allowing operations without valid air permit, raising environmental concerns.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global stocks edge higher ahead of U.S.–Iran talks while dollar strengthens.
— Equities yesterday: S&P 500 extends rally; Dow turns positive for the year amid ceasefire optimism.
— Wall Street, Fed warn on AI cyber risk: Anthropic’s “Mythos” model sparks concerns over systemic financial vulnerabilities.
— Working will be optional — but read the fine print: Automation accelerates structural labor shift, reducing demand for routine work.
AGRIBUSINESS
— Farm lending surges: Large operating and livestock loans drive sharp increase in agricultural credit demand.
AG MARKETS
— U.S. export sales to China remain muted: Modest activity across soybeans, sorghum, cotton, and pork highlights subdued demand.
— Cotton AWP rises: Adjusted World Price climbs above LDP trigger level for fourth consecutive week.
— USDA April WASDE — grains outlook: Rising global supplies and softer demand keep overall tone neutral to slightly bearish.
— WASDE — rice, cotton, sorghum trends: Rice demand weakens, cotton steady, sorghum supported by exports amid shifting use.
— WASDE — livestock, dairy, poultry: Tighter beef and hog supplies contrast with stronger dairy and poultry outlook.
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Mixed futures action with gains in soy complex and livestock, losses in grains.
FARM POLICY
— Farm Bridge Assistance update: Over $9 billion distributed with enrollment deadline approaching.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Friday oil update: WTI rebounds toward $98 as Hormuz disruption and regional strikes sustain volatility.
— Thursday oil recap: Prices hold below $100 as ceasefire tempers rally but supply risks remain elevated.
— DOE SPR exchange expands: Up to 30 million barrels offered to stabilize markets amid global supply strain.
TRADE POLICY
— USTR seeks $95M FY 2027 budget: Funding restructuring reflects expanded enforcement priorities.
— Court battle over Section 122 tariffs: Case tests limits of Trump administration’s emergency trade authority.
CHINA
— Xi signals hard line on Taiwan, opens dialogue: Beijing balances deterrence with outreach via rare KMT engagement.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Active western weather, severe Plains storms, and warming trend across central and eastern U.S.
— Plains drought vs. Corn Belt delays: Diverging conditions intensify wheat stress while excessive rain stalls planting progress.
| TOP STORIES—U.S. inflation reaccelerates in March as energy shock drives sharp monthly spikeGasoline surge tied to Iran conflict pushes headline CPI to highest level in nearly two years U.S. inflation accelerated sharply in March 2026, underscoring the growing impact of geopolitical energy shocks on the domestic economy and complicating the policy outlook for the Federal Reserve. The headline inflation rate rose to 3.3% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February and marking the highest level since May 2024.The increase aligned with market expectations but reflects a notable reversal from the disinflationary trend seen earlier this year. The primary driver was a surge in energy prices, which climbed 12.5% on the year. Gasoline prices led the move, jumping 18.9% annually and 21.2% on a monthly basis — a direct consequence of supply disruptions linked to the escalating conflict involving Iran and the continued constraints in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil flows. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March, the largest gain since June 2022 and a sharp acceleration from February’s 0.3% increase. The magnitude of the move highlights how quickly energy volatility is feeding through to consumer prices. Meanwhile, the inflation spike presents a renewed challenge for policymakers. The Federal Reserve had been navigating toward a more neutral stance amid easing core inflation trends, but the resurgence in headline inflation — particularly from energy — raises the risk of second-round effects on transportation, food, and broader consumer goods. The development reinforces emerging stagflation concerns already flagged in recent Fed communications, as higher input costs collide with softening business sentiment. It also complicates expectations for rate cuts, particularly as inflation tied to geopolitical shocks tends to be more persistent and less responsive to monetary tightening. Looking ahead, markets will closely monitor whether energy-driven inflation begins to bleed into core categories, which would signal a more durable inflationary cycle rather than a temporary spike tied to external shocks.—War with Iran update — Ceasefire holds, but crisis deepensStrait of Hormuz chokehold, regional fighting, and fragile diplomacy keep tensions elevated The war between the United States and Iran has entered a tenuous pause, but conditions on the ground — and in global energy markets — suggest the conflict remains far from resolved. A two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and implemented earlier this week, has halted large-scale direct attacks between Washington and Tehran. However, the agreement is already under strain, with both sides accusing the other of failing to meet key conditions, particularly around reopening the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz remains the central flashpoint. Despite the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz — which typically carries roughly 20–25% of global oil shipments — remains effectively restricted. Hundreds of vessels are stalled, and shipping activity is only a fraction of normal levels as operators avoid the area due to security risks and unclear transit rules. Iran has tightened control over passage, in some cases requiring explicit permission and proposing transit fees for ships. This has drawn sharp warnings from President Donald Trump, who has said the ceasefire hinges on fully reopening the waterway and cautioned that failure to do so could trigger renewed military action. Meanwhile, global efforts are intensifying to restore navigation. European leaders — including Giorgia Meloni — have backed multinational initiatives to secure maritime routes, underscoring the crisis’ global economic stakes. Regional conflict continues to threaten the truce. Complicating the ceasefire, fighting linked to Israel’s operations in Lebanon continues, with Tehran arguing those actions violate the broader spirit of de-escalation. Israeli strikes have caused significant casualties and risk pulling the region back into wider conflict, undermining diplomatic momentum. This disconnect highlights a core weakness in the current ceasefire framework: while the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause direct hostilities, the broader regional war — particularly involving Israel and Hezbollah — remains active and volatile. Israel will hold talks with Lebanon next week, but PM Benjamin Netanyahu said strikes on Hezbollah targets will continue. Energy markets and global economy under pressure. The near closure of Hormuz has created one of the most severe disruptions to global energy flows in decades. Oil prices have surged toward $100 per barrel, while gas markets and shipping costs remain highly volatile. Analysts increasingly view Iran’s control over the strait as its most powerful leverage point — not only militarily, but economically — allowing it to exert pressure on the U.S. and its allies without direct confrontation. Diplomatic window remains open — but narrow. Talks between U.S. and Iranian officials are expected to continue in the coming days, with mediation efforts focused on extending the ceasefire and clarifying terms around shipping, sanctions, and regional security. Even so, the current pause is widely viewed as temporary. Key issues — including Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and regional proxy conflicts — remain unresolved. Bottom Line: The war has shifted from open confrontation to a high-stakes standoff centered on economic pressure and regional instability. The ceasefire may have paused the fighting, but without progress on Hormuz and broader regional dynamics, the risk of renewed escalation remains elevated. —Hormuz remains choked despite ceasefireBloomberg reports Iran’s control, security risks, and shipping fears continue to block global energy flows A fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has failed to reopen one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, underscoring the depth of disruption still gripping global oil and commodity markets. According to reporting from Bloomberg, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained even after the April 8 truce took effect. Despite expectations that the 14-day ceasefire would restore shipping flows, only a handful of vessels have exited the Persian Gulf in recent days — a sharp contrast to the roughly 135 ships that typically transit the strait daily. Iran continues to exert tight control over passage, requiring coordination with its military and limiting ships to narrow routes close to its coastline. The ongoing restrictions reflect both strategic leverage and lingering security concerns. Iran has maintained that the strait is technically open, but shipowners remain wary amid reports of mines, sporadic attacks, and demands for payments reportedly reaching up to $2 million for safe passage. As a result, tanker operators, insurers, and crews have been unwilling to resume normal operations without clear evidence that risks have materially declined. The stakes are substantial. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and serves as a key transit point not only for crude oil and liquefied natural gas, but also for refined fuels, fertilizer, aluminum, and even helium critical to semiconductor production. While Iran has continued exporting its own oil near pre-war levels, the broader global supply chain remains under strain. Reopening the waterway will require more than a ceasefire on paper. Shipowners must be convinced that transit routes are safe, free of mines, and not subject to arbitrary restrictions or fees. Meanwhile, Iran has signaled it may formalize its control through legislation that could impose tolls on vessels — a move widely criticized by international maritime authorities as violating established norms of free navigation. Even if security conditions improve, logistical challenges loom. A backlog of vessels waiting on both sides of the strait, combined with the absence of a coordinated traffic management system, could delay normalization of flows for weeks. Meanwhile, the Hormuz standoff highlights a broader reality: geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets are likely to persist, even in periods of nominal de-escalation. As Bloomberg’s reporting makes clear, restoring confidence in one of the world’s most vital shipping corridors will take far longer than negotiating a temporary ceasefire. —Rubio to visit India as U.S./India ties reboundTrade reset and regional diplomacy shape first trip by Secretary of State U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is planning a visit to India in May, signaling a renewed push to strengthen ties between Washington and New Delhi after a period of strain driven by U.S. tariff policies. The planned trip — confirmed by U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor following Rubio’s meeting with India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri — would mark Rubio’s first official visit to India since taking office. While specific dates have not been announced, the visit reflects improving bilateral momentum after months of trade-related friction. Relations between the two countries have begun to stabilize following a February trade agreement that rolled back U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and outlined a framework to expand bilateral commerce. However, key elements of that pact remain under negotiation, leaving both sides working to finalize the details. The visit also comes amid a broader shift in regional diplomacy. The Trump administration has simultaneously deepened engagement with Pakistan, which is playing a central role in facilitating U.S.–Iran peace talks. Islamabad is set to host upcoming negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance, underscoring its growing strategic importance. The renewed U.S./India engagement highlights Washington’s effort to balance relationships across South Asia — strengthening economic and diplomatic ties with New Delhi while leveraging Pakistan’s role in Middle East negotiations. —Starmer breaks with Trump — blames Iran war for UK energy shockUK Prime Minister links global conflict, oil disruption, and rising household costs in unusually direct rebuke UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sharply escalated rhetoric against Donald Trump, saying he is “fed up” after weeks of criticism tied to the Iran conflict and its global economic fallout. In a striking departure from traditional diplomatic tone, Starmer compared Trump’s actions to those of Vladimir Putin, arguing that both leaders are contributing to instability that is driving up energy costs for British households. The comments come as the ongoing Iran war continues to disrupt global oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for energy shipments. The resulting supply constraints have injected volatility into global markets, pushing up fuel prices and feeding directly into UK household energy bills. Starmer framed the issue in explicitly domestic terms, arguing that decisions made abroad are now showing up in the cost of living at home. Meanwhile, the disagreement underscores a broader policy divide. The Trump administration has taken a more aggressive posture in the region, while the UK has emphasized restraint and diplomacy, resisting deeper military involvement and calling for a wider ceasefire framework. That divergence has strained the U.S./UK relationship at a moment of heightened geopolitical risk. Starmer’s remarks also reflect growing political pressure inside Britain, where rising fuel and energy costs are becoming a central economic issue. By directly linking those costs to geopolitical actions by both Washington and Moscow, he is attempting to shift the narrative toward energy security and reduced exposure to external shocks. The episode marks a notable shift in tone between the two allies, with Starmer signaling that the economic consequences of global conflict — particularly in energy markets — may increasingly shape how the UK positions itself alongside, or apart from, U.S. policy. —Warsh Fed nomination delayed amid procedural holdups and political tensionsPaperwork issues and GOP opposition tied to DOJ probe push confirmation timeline into uncertainty The nomination of Kevin Warsh to serve as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve is now expected to be delayed, as the Senate Banking Committee will not hold its anticipated confirmation hearing next week. Multiple reports indicate that the postponement stems from delays in submitting required nomination paperwork to the panel. Warsh, nominated by Donald Trump, previously served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2005 to 2011 and has been widely viewed as a leading candidate to succeed current Chair Jerome Powell. Powell’s term as chair expires in May, though he has pledged to remain in the role until a successor is confirmed. Complicating the timeline further are ongoing political and legal dynamics. Powell has indicated he intends to stay at the Fed until a Department of Justice investigation into whether he misled Congress is concluded. Meanwhile, Thom Tillis has vowed to block Warsh’s nomination unless the DOJ probe is halted, injecting an additional layer of uncertainty into the confirmation process. The combination of procedural delays and mounting political friction suggests that the transition at the central bank could extend well beyond the expected timeline, leaving leadership continuity at the Fed dependent on both legal developments and Senate negotiations. —JBS Greeley plant faces lawsuit over expired air permitEnvironmental group alleges Colorado regulators failed to enforce federal timeline, allowing continued emissions A new lawsuit alleges that a major Colorado meatpacking facility owned by JBS has been operating for years without a valid federal air pollution permit, raising fresh concerns about regulatory enforcement and public health. According to reporting by the Denver Post and journalist Noelle Phillips, the legal action centers on delays by state officials in processing required permits under the Clean Air Act. The lawsuit, filed by the Center for Biological Diversity, targets the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment and its Air Pollution Control Division. The group argues regulators failed to meet a federally mandated timeline to finalize a Title V air permit for JBS’s Greeley facility — a permit that should have been completed by October 2023. At the center of the dispute is the claim that the plant has effectively been operating without a valid permit since January 2021. The environmental group contends that JBS’s subsidiary filed its renewal application late — more than a year after the deadline — making it ineligible to continue operating under the expired permit. State regulators, however, have allowed the facility to continue operations while the permit remains pending. Health and regulatory concerns. Title V permits are required for facilities that emit significant levels of pollutants and are designed to cap emissions and enforce compliance with federal air quality standards. The Greeley plant emits a range of pollutants, including particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, and ammonia — all of which can pose health risks with prolonged exposure. Of particular concern is the contribution of these emissions to ground-level ozone, a persistent issue along Colorado’s Front Range, which remains in violation of federal ozone standards. The lawsuit argues that delays in updating permits allow facilities to operate under outdated standards, potentially enabling higher emissions than would be allowed under newer, stricter rules. Broader pattern of enforcement disputes. This case marks the third lawsuit filed by the Center for Biological Diversity against Colorado regulators since September over delayed air permit approvals. Similar legal actions involving oil and gas operations and another meatpacking facility resulted in permits being finalized after litigation began. While JBS is not named as a defendant, the lawsuit seeks to compel state regulators to act — both to finalize the permit and to reinforce compliance expectations. Meanwhile, the case underscores a broader tension between regulatory capacity and enforcement — particularly as industrial emissions remain under scrutiny in regions already struggling to meet federal air quality benchmarks. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Asian stocks edged higher as investors looked ahead to U.S./Iran ceasefire talks set for this weekend in Pakistan. U.S. equity futures were mixed and the dollar strengthened.
In Asia, Japan +1.8%. Hong Kong +0.6%. China +0.5%. India +1.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.3%. Paris +0.8%. Frankfurt +0.9%.
—Equities yesterday: The S&P 500 is on a seven-day winning streak and close to recouping all its losses since the war in the Middle East began in February. Thursday’s rally put the Dow into the green for the year.
| Equity Index | Closing Price April 9 | Point Difference from April 8 | % Difference from April 8 |
| Dow | 48,185.80 | +275.88 | +0.58% |
| Nasdaq | 2,822.42 | +187.42 | +0.83% |
| S&P 500 | 6,824.66 | +41.85 | +0.62% |
—Wall Street, Fed sound alarm over AI-driven cyber risk
Anthropic’s “Mythos” model triggers high-level meeting as regulators and financial leaders assess systemic threats
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent convened an urgent meeting with top Wall Street executives this week, responding to mounting concerns that a powerful new artificial intelligence model could significantly elevate cyber risk across the financial system.
The closed-door session was prompted by the controlled release of “Mythos,” a next-generation AI system developed by Anthropic. The company restricted access to a small group of vetted firms after warning that the model may possess capabilities that could be repurposed for sophisticated cyberattacks — including automating vulnerability discovery, generating exploit code, and scaling intrusion campaigns far beyond current norms.
The development has set off alarm bells among regulators already grappling with the intersection of AI advancement and financial stability. Officials fear that tools like Mythos could lower the barrier to entry for high-impact cyber operations, enabling both state and non-state actors to target critical infrastructure, financial institutions, and market systems with unprecedented speed and precision.
According to participants, the meeting focused on worst-case scenarios — including coordinated attacks on payment rails, trading platforms, or clearinghouses — where AI-enhanced tools could amplify disruption. The concern is not only the frequency of potential attacks, but also their complexity and adaptability, making them harder to detect and contain in real time.
Meanwhile, major banks and financial firms are reassessing their own AI adoption strategies. While institutions have aggressively pursued AI for efficiency gains — from trading algorithms to fraud detection — the emergence of dual-use systems like Mythos underscores the risk that the same technological leap forward could expose them to new vulnerabilities.
Regulators are now weighing whether existing cyber and risk frameworks are sufficient in an AI-driven threat landscape. Some officials are pushing for tighter coordination between government agencies and the private sector, including real-time intelligence sharing and new guardrails around the deployment of advanced AI systems.
The episode highlights a broader shift in how policymakers view artificial intelligence — not just as an economic driver, but as a potential systemic risk vector. As AI capabilities accelerate, the balance between innovation and security is becoming a central challenge for both markets and governments.
—Working will be optional — but only if you read the fine print
Automation is no longer a trend — it’s a structural rewrite of labor economics
The scene described inside Amazon warehouses is not experimental — it reflects a mature, scaled shift in how labor and capital are being deployed across the logistics economy, according to Claire West of The Budget Analyst. What was once framed as “automation assisting workers” is increasingly becoming automation replacing workers at scale, particularly in repetitive, process-driven environments.
At the core of this transformation is a simple but powerful economic equation: robots are dramatically cheaper, more predictable, and increasingly capable. With annual operating costs a fraction of human labor, automation is no longer just about efficiency — it is about fundamentally resetting cost structures. That shift is driving aggressive adoption timelines, with internal targets reportedly aiming to automate up to 75% of operations within the next few years.
The implications extend well beyond a single company. Across the sector, firms like Walmart and UPS are investing heavily in automated fulfillment and distribution networks, signaling that this is an industry-wide transition rather than an isolated strategy. The logistics backbone of the global economy is being rebuilt — quietly, incrementally, and irreversibly.
Meanwhile, productivity metrics are already reflecting the shift. Facilities are producing more output with fewer workers, and headcounts per site are declining even as throughput rises. This is a classic hallmark of technological displacement: output grows, but labor demand does not keep pace.
The broader takeaway is stark. The future of work is not disappearing — but it is becoming conditional. Employment will increasingly depend on where humans retain a comparative advantage: oversight, complex decision-making, and roles that machines cannot easily replicate. For routine, physical, or standardized tasks, the economic case for automation is simply too strong to ignore. In that sense, “working becoming optional” is not about leisure — it is about displacement risk. The fine print is that the transition is already underway, and the winners will be those positioned on the side of designing, managing, or complementing the machines, rather than competing directly with them.
| AGRIBUSINESS |
—Farm lending surges on large operating and livestock loans
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City analysis highlights strong credit demand amid a bifurcated farm economy
Farm lending activity at commercial banks accelerated sharply in the first quarter of 2026, driven primarily by large operating and feeder livestock loans, according to a report (link) by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City economist Ty Kreitman.
The report, based on the National Survey of Terms of Lending to Farmers, shows that non-real estate loan volumes rose nearly 50% year-over-year, with the most significant gains concentrated in loans exceeding $500,000. Operating loans and feeder livestock financing accounted for the bulk of the increase, reflecting both higher input costs and elevated cattle prices.
Loan sizes continue to trend upward, with large loans making up a record share of new operating credit. Feeder livestock lending, in particular, has expanded rapidly, with loan volumes rising roughly 25% over the past year and average loan sizes increasing about 15% — closely tracking the surge in cattle prices.
Meanwhile, interest rates on farm loans remain elevated relative to historical averages. Rates on larger loans held steady from the prior quarter, while smaller loans saw modest declines, suggesting some easing at the margin but continued tightness in overall credit conditions.
The broader farm economy remains uneven. Weak crop-sector profitability — pressured by high fertilizer and fuel costs — contrasts with strong cattle-sector revenues, which are supporting incomes in key regions. Additional support is expected from recent Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, though uncertainty remains elevated due to volatility in commodity, energy, and fertilizer markets.
Despite these headwinds, farm real estate values have held firm, providing a stabilizing force for farm balance sheets and lending conditions even as financial stress persists in parts of the sector.
| AG MARKETS |
—U.S. ag export sales to China remain muted. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed continued tempered sales to China for 2025/26 the week ended April 2, with activity including net sales of 113,545 MT sorghum (all new sales), net sales of 124,692 MT soybeans (including 7,519 MT of new sales), and net sales of 8,928 running bales of upland cotton (new sales were 8,948 running bales). Net sales of 1,517 MT pork (1,553 MT new sales) were reported for 2026. The results bring export commitments to China to 2,823 MMT of sorghum (632,134 MT of outstanding sales), 11.508 MMT of soybeans (2,219 MMT outstanding sales), 512,140 running bales of upland cotton (182,920 running bales of outstanding sales) and 66,548 MT of pork (22,481 MT outstanding sales).
—Cotton AWP rises. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 58.74 cents per pound, effective today (April 10), up from 56.99 cents per pound the prior week. This marks the fourth week in a row the AWP has been above the level to trigger an LDP.
—USDA’s April WASDE points to growing supplies, softer demand across major crops
Wheat stocks hit a seven-year high, soybean crush rises while exports slip, and corn prices edge up in a largely unchanged monthly outlook
USDA’s April 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released April 9, painted a picture of comfortable — and in some cases burgeoning — global grain and oilseed supplies heading into the final stretch of the 2025/26 marketing year. Analysts broadly characterized the report as uneventful, with modest price adjustments and no major surprises on production, particularly from South America.
Wheat: stocks surge to highest level since 2019/20. Wheat was the commodity with the most notable shift in the April report. USDA estimated U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 938 million bushels, up from 931 million bushels in March. That figure represents a 10% increase from last year and the highest level since 2019/20. Imports were increased to 125 million bushels, up from 120 million bushels last month, while the average wheat farm gate price was estimated at $5.00 per bushel, up from $4.95 per bushel in March.
Globally, the wheat picture also grew more burdensome. World wheat ending stocks came in at 283.12 million metric tons (MMT), up from the March estimate of 276.96 MMT. Global wheat supplies are increasing while consumption declines — particularly in India — contributing to larger stockpiles worldwide. Severe drought conditions are currently affecting over half of the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop, a factor markets will continue to monitor as the growing season progresses.
Soybeans: crush rises, exports fall, South America unchanged. The soybean balance sheet saw a reshuffling of demand without a change in ending stocks. USDA increased its crush estimate to 2.61 billion bushels, up 35 million bushels, while trimming its export estimate by 35 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels. The export reduction reflects stiff competition from South America. The national average farm gate price was raised by a dime to $10.30 per bushel. The soybean meal price was increased $10 to $310 per short ton, and the soybean oil price was raised 4 cents to 59 cents per pound.
On the world stage, global soybean ending stocks were lowered to 124.79 MMT, reflecting slightly higher crush estimates. Production in Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged at 180 MMT and 48 MMT, respectively, with Paraguay’s production climbing by 0.5 MMT to 12 MMT.
Corn: price nudges higher, supply and demand largely steady. The corn outlook was the quietest of the three major crops. The only change to the 2025/26 corn crop balance sheet was a 5-cent increase in the farm gate price to $4.15 per bushel. Usage and ending stocks were unchanged.
On the production side, the report noted U.S. corn production pegged at a record 17.02 billion bushels with a yield forecast of 186.5 bushels per acre. Exports were projected at 3.3 billion bushels and ending stocks came in at 2.127 billion bushels.
Globally, the corn supply picture remained ample. Global corn production was increased 3.63 MMT to 1,301.07 MMT, and global ending stocks came in at 294.81 MMT, up 2.06 MMT and above the average pre-report estimates. Analysts noted ample global corn supplies and continuing competitive pressure from South American soybean exports as the defining market dynamics of the moment.
Overall market tone: Analysts mostly characterized Thursday’s U.S. ending stocks estimates as neutral for corn, neutral for soybeans, and neutral to slightly bearish for wheat. World ending stocks were neutral for corn, neutral for soybeans, and slightly bearish for wheat. The May WASDE will include initial projections for the 2026/27 crop cycle — when a fuller picture of planting intentions and new-crop supply will come into view.
—USDA WASDE highlights diverging trends across rice, cotton, and sorghum
April 9 report points to weakening rice demand, steady cotton fundamentals, and shifting sorghum usage patterns
USDA’s April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report presents a mixed outlook for key row crops, with rice showing clear signs of demand erosion, cotton remaining largely unchanged, and sorghum reflecting stable but evolving demand dynamics.
Rice stands out as the most bearish component of the report. USDA lowered domestic and residual use for 2025/26 by 2 million hundredweight to 169 million, citing weaker-than-expected disappearance during the winter months. At the same time, exports were reduced by 3 million hundredweight to 82 million on continued slow sales and shipments, particularly to Western Hemisphere markets. These downward revisions pushed ending stocks up by 5 million hundredweight to 55.3 million, the highest level since the mid-1980s, signaling a significant buildup in supply. Despite this, the season-average farm price was held steady at $12.10 per hundredweight, with adjustments between long-grain and medium- and short-grain categories offsetting each other. The overall message for rice is clear: demand softness is now driving the balance sheet and raising concerns about future price pressure if export markets do not improve.
Cotton, by contrast, showed little change in the April update. USDA left the U.S. balance sheet essentially untouched, with production at 13.92 million bales, exports at 12.0 million bales, and ending stocks at 4.4 million bales. The only adjustment came on the price side, where the season-average farm price was raised slightly to 61 cents per pound. While the domestic outlook remains steady, global developments suggest a more cautious tone. Higher production in major producing countries such as China, India, and Pakistan has lifted global supplies and increased ending stocks, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio higher. This implies that even with stable U.S. fundamentals, the global supply environment may limit any sustained price rally.
Sorghum presents a more balanced but subtly shifting picture. Production for 2025/26 is projected at 437 million bushels, with total supplies reaching 477 million. Total use is forecast at 440 million bushels, leaving ending stocks at 37 million, slightly below the prior year. Within that total, however, there is a noticeable reallocation of demand. Feed and residual use is projected at 100 million bushels, while food, seed, and industrial use increases to 115 million. Exports remain strong at 225 million bushels, continuing to play a central role in supporting the market. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.55 per bushel, reflecting softer pricing expectations despite relatively stable supply and use totals.
Taken together, the April WASDE report highlights a broader shift in agricultural markets toward demand-driven outcomes. Rice is facing clear headwinds from weakening consumption and export performance, cotton remains steady but constrained by global supply growth, and sorghum continues to rely on export strength even as domestic usage patterns evolve.
—USDA April WASDE: tighter hog and beef supplies, brighter dairy and poultry outlook for 2026
Latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates signal a leaner red meat complex ahead, while dairy producers and much of the poultry sector see improving conditions
USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report delivered a broadly mixed picture for U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors, with red meat production forecasts trimmed and prices expected to hold firm, while dairy and most poultry categories received upward revisions.
Hogs: lower farrowings weigh on pork outlook. Pork production is lowered on reduced slaughter, with the current outlook for hog slaughter in 2026 reflecting information provided in the March 26 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which indicated lower farrowings through much of 2026. The pullback in farrowing intentions signals the pork supply pipeline will tighten as the year progresses. Pork exports were raised in the first quarter due to the latest trade data but were unchanged for the full year.
Cattle and beef: first-half slaughter drops, prices head higher. Beef production was reduced as lower steer and heifer slaughter in the first half of the year is partially offset by higher cow slaughter in the first two quarters and heavier dressed weights throughout the year. As these cattle are placed on feed in the first half of the year, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half.
On the price side, the picture is more optimistic for producers. The 2026 projection for beef production was lowered by 110 million pounds from last month to 25.810 billion pounds, while cattle price projections are higher, with slaughter steer prices were raised to $242.00 per hundredweight (cwt) and feeder steer prices raised to $367.25 per cwt.
Beef exports were lowered for 2026 due to the slow pace of shipments in early 2026 and the reduction of available supplies in the first half of the year, while beef imports are raised based on recent trade data and continued strong demand for lean processing beef.
Dairy: milk production and prices both move higher. The dairy sector received one of the report’s more positive revisions. The milk production forecast for 2026 was raised from last month, as increases to the dairy cow inventory more than offset slower growth in milk output per cow. USDA estimated milk production at 235.3 billion pounds, up 600 million pounds from a month earlier — a level that would be up about 1.5% from 2025.
Prices for cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) were raised for 2026 on recent price strength, strong domestic demand, and improved price competitiveness for cheese on the international market. Fed cattle prices were left unchanged except for the first quarter, which was updated to reflect reported data through March. The 2026 average is now forecast at $242 per cwt, with highest prices in the fourth quarter of the year.
Poultry and eggs: broilers and eggs up, turkeys benefit from hatchery data. The poultry complex showed a divergence between sectors. Broiler production was raised on the recent pace of slaughter and heavier weights through the start of the year. Turkey production was raised on recent hatchery data. Egg production was raised on recent layer inventory and production data.
The broiler gains are underpinned by solid supply indicators. USDA’s April WASDE forecasts 2026 broiler production at 48.7 billion pounds, up 1.4% — or approximately 694 million pounds — from 2025. The egg sector, which has been battered by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in recent years, is also seeing rebuilding momentum, with higher layer inventories supporting the improved production outlook.
Bottom Line: The April WASDE paints a picture of a livestock sector navigating real supply constraints — particularly in hogs and first-half beef — while prices remain elevated for producers. Dairy operators are positioned to benefit from stronger milk output and firming product prices. On the poultry side, broiler and egg producers are gaining ground, even as the industry remains watchful of HPAI risks heading into the spring migration season.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity Name | Contract Month | Closing Price April 9 | Change from April 8 |
| Corn | May | $4.44 | -3 1/4¢ |
| Soybeans | May | $11.65 1/4 | +3 1/4¢ |
| Soybean Meal | May | $317.60 | +$3.50 |
| Soybean Oil | May | 67.70¢ | +28 pts |
| Wheat (SRW) | May | $5.74 1/2 | -5 3/4¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | May | $5.90 1/2 | -4 3/4¢ |
| Wheat (Spring) | May | $6.18 1/4 | -5 3/4¢ |
| Cotton | May | 73.26¢ | +159 pts |
| Live Cattle | June | $247.20 | +$1.275 |
| Feeder Cattle | May | $370.425 | +$2.425 |
| Lean Hogs | June | $104.125 | -$0.525 |
| FARM POLICY |
—Just over $9 billion of aid from the Farm Bridge Assistance program has been doled out, according to USDA’s dashboard (link). Farmers have until next Friday, April 17, to enroll in the program.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Friday: Oil volatility persists as Hormuz closure and regional strikes offset ceasefire relief
WTI pushes back toward $98 despite weekly losses, as supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions continue to dominate market direction
WTI crude futures climbed back above $98 per barrel Friday, underscoring the market’s continued sensitivity to Middle East disruptions even as a fragile U.S./Iran ceasefire remains in place. Prices are still on track for a weekly decline of more than 10%, reflecting the sharp pullback earlier in the week when the two sides agreed to a temporary two-week truce.
Brent was trading at nearly $96 per barrel, up slightly.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risk has quickly reasserted itself. Israeli strikes in Lebanon — explicitly excluded from the ceasefire framework by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — have complicated diplomatic momentum and injected fresh uncertainty into regional stability. The Trump administration has responded by scheduling follow-on talks involving Israel and Lebanon to broaden the ceasefire into a more durable arrangement.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central pressure point for global energy markets. Despite the ceasefire, the critical transit corridor — which typically handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows — is still largely closed, with shipowners reluctant to resume operations amid unclear security conditions and the risk of new transit restrictions. President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric toward Tehran, warning against the imposition of transit fees and criticizing Iran’s management of maritime access.
On the supply side, disruptions are mounting. Saudi Arabia reported a reduction in oil production capacity of approximately 600,000 barrels per day following attacks on key energy infrastructure. Compounding the situation, a major pipeline designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz has also been hit, limiting alternative export routes and reinforcing the bottleneck effect in global supply chains.
Meanwhile, the market is caught between two competing forces: short-term relief from the ceasefire agreement and persistent structural constraints on supply. The result is heightened volatility, with traders reluctant to fully unwind the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.
The next phase for oil markets will hinge on whether diplomatic efforts can meaningfully reopen Hormuz and stabilize regional flows — or whether escalating proxy conflicts and infrastructure damage continue to tighten supply and push prices back toward triple-digit territory.
—Thursday: Oil holds below $100 as ceasefire tempers rally, but supply risks persist
Markets weigh fragile de-escalation against ongoing strait of Hormuz disruptions
Oil markets closed modestly higher Thursday, with both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate remaining below the critical $100 per barrel threshold for a second straight session, as traders balanced tentative geopolitical easing with persistent supply constraints.
Brent crude settled up $1.17, 1.2%, at $95.92 per barrel after briefly pushing above $99 earlier in the day.
WTI posted a stronger gain, rising $3.46, 3.7%, to $97.87, though it too retreated from intraday highs near $102.70 as the session progressed.
Early trading saw prices surge more than 5% amid renewed doubts over the durability of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Concerns centered on continued restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
Sentiment later eased following indications of broader regional de-escalation, including potential diplomatic engagement involving Lebanon. Still, physical oil flows remain materially disrupted. Tanker traffic through the strait is operating at a fraction of normal levels, with Iran maintaining tight control over transit conditions.
Compounding supply concerns, reports of damage to Saudi energy infrastructure have raised fresh doubts about export capacity. Disruptions to production facilities and pipeline networks suggest that even if maritime transit improves, alternative supply routes may not fully offset near-term losses.
Meanwhile, structural risks continue to weigh on the market outlook. Elevated security threats, including potential maritime mines, alongside sharply higher insurance premiums and freight costs, are expected to slow any normalization in global energy flows.
Risks ahead. Despite the existence of a formal ceasefire, ongoing reports of regional strikes and infrastructure attacks underscore the fragility of the current environment. Markets increasingly recognize that geopolitical risk premiums are unlikely to dissipate quickly.
Reflecting this recalibration, some forecasters have modestly lowered near-term price expectations, now projecting crude to average in the high-$80s to low-$90s range in the coming quarter — contingent on a gradual recovery in supply flows.
Meanwhile, oil markets remain highly reactive to geopolitical developments, with volatility expected to persist as traders seek clearer signals on both ceasefire durability and the timeline for restoring disrupted supply chains.
—DOE expands Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange program
Up to 30 million barrels offered from West Hackberry site as part of broader global supply effort
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is offering up to 30 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) through an exchange program aimed at stabilizing supply and easing market pressures. The crude will be made available from the West Hackberry storage site, with bids for the solicitation due April 13.
Under the exchange structure, companies receive crude oil now and agree to return it later with additional barrels — effectively providing a short-term supply boost while ensuring the SPR is replenished with a premium. This mechanism allows the government to inject supply into the market without permanently reducing reserve levels.
The latest offering is part of a broader U.S.-led effort to release 172 million barrels from the SPR, contributing to a coordinated global initiative totaling roughly 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. To date, approximately 55 million barrels have already been released through two prior actions.
Of note: Japan to release additional oil supplies. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told a cabinet meeting that Japan will release another 20 days’ supply of oil reserves in May, noting that by May the country should be able to secure more than half of its imports via routes that do not go through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Takaichi did not indicate any details of what routes would be used.
The U.S. exchange underscores the administration’s continued reliance on the SPR as a flexible tool to respond to energy market disruptions, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and constrained global supply flows.
| TRADE POLICY |
—USTR seeks $95 million in FY 2027 budget as enforcement funding shifts
Greer to defend higher request before House appropriators amid restructuring of trade enforcement funding
The Trump administration is requesting $95 million for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) in fiscal year 2027 — a $7 million increase — as it restructures how trade enforcement activities are funded and prepares to expand its enforcement footprint.
According to White House budget documents, the FY2027 request consolidates funding that had previously been split between USTR’s base budget and the Trade Enforcement Trust Fund. The move reflects the expiration of mandatory transfers authorized under the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015, which sunset in 2026.
Funding structure shifts as enforcement authority expands. For FY 2026, USTR requested $72 million, though Congress ultimately approved $65 million. Lawmakers did, however, meet the administration’s request for $23 million in the Trade Enforcement Trust Fund — bringing total funding to $88 million. In FY 2027, the administration is folding those enforcement dollars directly into USTR’s primary “Salaries and Expenses” account, eliminating reliance on the trust fund mechanism. The White House noted that because the trust fund authorization is expiring, “funding and authorities for trade enforcement activities in FY 2027 are requested” through standard appropriations channels instead.
Greer to make case on Capitol Hill. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is set to defend the FY 2027 request before House appropriators on April 16, where he will be the sole witness before the Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee.
Greer has consistently argued that USTR’s workload has expanded significantly under the Trump administration’s trade agenda. In prior testimony, he told lawmakers the agency had “never been busier,” citing increased enforcement demands tied to new and existing trade agreements.
He also emphasized that USTR funding had remained “essentially flat for five years,” even as responsibilities grew — a key justification for seeking higher appropriations.
Broader enforcement push across agencies. Meanwhile, the administration is also proposing increased funding for trade enforcement functions within the Department of Commerce, including the International Trade Administration and the Bureau of Industry and Security.
The coordinated push signals a broader strategy to strengthen U.S. trade enforcement capacity across multiple agencies as global trade tensions and enforcement actions continue to rise.
—Court battle over Section 122 tariffs tests scope of Trump trade authority
States and businesses argue emergency tariff powers are being stretched beyond legal limits
The U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) is set to hear arguments in a high-stakes case challenging the Trump administration’s use of Section 122 authority to impose a 10% tariff on imports, a move made after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the administration’s reliance on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for tariff actions. Link to CRS report.
The lawsuit — filed by a coalition of 24 states and two small businesses — targets tariffs enacted on February 24, arguing that Section 122 is being misapplied. Plaintiffs contend the statute is narrowly designed to address short-term monetary crises tied to balance-of-payments deficits, not broader trade imbalances like the U.S. trade deficit cited by the administration.
Under the law, Section 122 tariffs are limited to a maximum duration of 150 days, reinforcing the plaintiffs’ argument that Congress intended the authority as a temporary stabilization tool rather than a long-term trade policy instrument.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is preparing fallback strategies to sustain tariff pressure. Officials are advancing investigations under Section 201 of U.S. trade law, targeting issues such as global overcapacity and forced labor. These probes are expected to conclude before the Section 122 tariffs expire, potentially allowing the administration to transition to more durable tariff mechanisms.
The case could have sweeping implications for presidential trade powers, particularly in defining the limits of emergency economic authorities following the Supreme Court’s recent constraint on IEEPA-based tariffs.
| CHINA |
—Xi signals hard line on Taiwan while opening door to dialogue
Beijing hosts first high-level KMT meeting in a decade as cross-strait tensions remain central to global geopolitics
Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a rare meeting in Beijing with Cheng Li-wun, marking the first such engagement with Taiwan’s main opposition party in a decade, as Beijing balances warnings against independence with renewed calls for dialogue.
During the talks at the Great Hall of the People, Xi delivered a firm message that China will “never tolerate” any move toward formal Taiwanese independence, calling it the primary threat to peace across the Taiwan Strait. At the same time, he emphasized a willingness to expand exchanges with Taiwanese political groups that accept a shared opposition to independence, signaling a dual-track strategy of deterrence and engagement.
Cheng, representing the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), largely aligned with Beijing’s framework, reiterating support for the “1992 Consensus” — a formula acknowledging “one China” with differing interpretations — and calling for more institutionalized cross-strait dialogue. She argued that deeper cooperation could make peaceful development “irreversible” and reduce the risk of conflict.
The meeting comes amid heightened geopolitical sensitivity around Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory and has increasingly pressured through military exercises and diplomatic isolation efforts. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s ruling party, led by President Lai Ching-te, criticized the visit, arguing that opposition figures lack authority to negotiate with Beijing and warning of undue Chinese influence.
The development also intersects with broader global dynamics. Taiwan remains a key security partner of the United States under the Taiwan Relations Act, and the issue is expected to feature prominently in upcoming talks between Xi and President Donald Trump. Beijing may use the KMT engagement to project an image of stability and openness to dialogue, even as it maintains its long-standing position that eventual reunification is inevitable.
Meanwhile, public sentiment in Taiwan continues to favor maintaining the status quo — resisting both formal independence and unification — leaving the island at the center of one of the world’s most delicate geopolitical flashpoints.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Active weather pattern in the western U.S. will bring heavy mountain snow for the Sierra Nevada and unsettled but warmer than normal conditions from the Great Basin to the northern High Plains… …Scattered severe thunderstorms with heavy rain today across the Central Plains will shift focus into the southern High Plains later on Saturday… …Warm air surges from the central U.S. toward New England with a round of rain ahead of a frontal boundary.
—Plains drought deepens while Corn Belt faces planting delays amid wet pattern
Western wheat areas see worsening moisture outlook as excessive rain and warmth reshape early spring field conditions across the central U.S.
The latest 15-day weather outlook points to a sharply divided pattern across key U.S. agricultural regions, with worsening drought conditions in the western Hard Red Winter wheat belt contrasting against excessive moisture in the Corn Belt that could significantly disrupt spring planting.
Rainfall expectations have deteriorated notably across western and northwestern wheat areas, where totals are now projected to remain below half an inch. That level of precipitation is unlikely to provide meaningful relief for drought-stressed crops as they move into critical development stages, raising concerns about yield potential. Meanwhile, areas along the Interstate 35 corridor and eastward are expected to receive sufficient moisture, offering some drought improvement in those regions.
In the Corn Belt, an active and persistent precipitation pattern is already underway and is expected to continue uninterrupted over the next two weeks. While this will help alleviate lingering drought conditions, it comes at a cost — widespread fieldwork and early planting efforts are likely to be delayed, tightening the window for optimal crop establishment.
Compounding the situation, an unusually warm temperature regime is forecast to dominate much of the central and eastern U.S. through mid-April, with temperatures running roughly 15 degrees above normal. This warmth will accelerate soil warming and could support rapid planting progress where conditions allow. However, models are signaling a shift toward cooler conditions late in the forecast period, keeping the risk of late-season snow in play for the northern Plains.
Meanwhile, the Southeast remains locked in a worsening moisture deficit. Forecast precipitation is expected to reach only 25% to 50% of normal over the next 15 days, extending dry conditions. While this will allow for a faster planting pace, it poses risks to early crop establishment, particularly for shallow-rooted plants facing increasing stress from lack of soil moisture.
