House GOP Faces Critical Test on FISA Extension, Farm Bill & E15 as Rule Vote Looms
Crude oil prices surge | USDA’s huge fertilizer announcement was underwhelming | Cash cattle prices zoom | Zeldin talks 2028 RFS | FOMC news today
| LINKS |
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 17
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, April 17
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April 29, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— House faces pivotal test on FISA extension, farm bill, and E15 as rule vote looms: High-stakes House vote will determine whether bundled legislation advances or collapses amid GOP divisions, with major implications for surveillance policy, farm bill passage, and fuel policy
— Brent crude surges above $114, gasoline hits $4.23: Energy markets continue rally as supply disruptions tighten global crude flows and push U.S. pump prices higher
— Trump shifts to prolonged Iran blockade strategy amid stalled diplomacy: White House pivots to sustained economic pressure on Tehran as negotiations stall and regional tensions persist
— USDA rolls out multi-pronged fertilizer strategy amid price surge: Administration targets imports, antitrust scrutiny, and domestic production to counter war-driven supply shock
— EPA pushes to accelerate next phase of biofuel mandates: Zeldin signals fast-track effort to finalize RFS Set 3 and restore regulatory certainty for biofuel markets
— Trump’s Beijing trip murky as Iran talks stall: Ongoing conflict clouds prospects for U.S./China summit while raising geopolitical and economic stakes
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Markets flat ahead of Fed decision and major tech earnings as investors await policy signals
— Equities yesterday: Major indexes declined modestly, led by Nasdaq weakness
— Fed signals hold as Powell faces final stretch amid war uncertainty: Central bank expected to stay on hold while markets focus on guidance and leadership transition
AGRIBUSINESS
— Bunge raises 2026 outlook as crush margins surge: Strong biofuel demand and elevated commodity prices boost earnings outlook for global processor
AG MARKETS
— Cattle prices rise as screwworm developments reshape supply outlook: Biosecurity dynamics and producer behavior tighten near-term supply in already constrained market
— Cash cattle surge to record highs as futures rebound sharply: Tight supplies and aggressive buying push prices to new highs with positioning data in focus
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Mixed commodity performance with gains in grains and cattle offset by soybean weakness
NEW WORLD SCREWWORM
— FDA expands emergency tools to combat New World Screwworm: New authorizations broaden treatment and prevention options as biosecurity concerns intensify
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Wednesday: Oil surges past $115 as Hormuz closure sparks historic supply shock: Escalating tensions and disrupted flows drive crude to multi-year highs
— Tuesday: Strait constraints override OPEC+ signal as oil rally extends: Supply bottlenecks outweigh UAE exit, reinforcing bullish price momentum
TRADE POLICY
— Tariff evasion surged past $100 billion as importers exploited loopholes: Report highlights widespread duty avoidance as U.S. processes massive tariff refunds
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Severe weather and flooding risks persist across parts of the U.S. alongside shifting temperature patterns
— Weather outlook splits Corn Belt, raises planting and crop risk concerns: Excess rain, cold, and dryness create uneven planting conditions and heighten crop stress risks
| TOP STORIES—House faces pivotal test on FISA extension, farm bill, and E15 as rule vote loomsHigh-stakes procedural vote will determine whether major legislative priorities advance or slip into May amid GOP divisions The House is poised for a consequential floor vote today — April 29 — that will shape the near-term trajectory of several major legislative efforts, including reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), passage of the farm bill, and a push to authorize year-round sales of E15 fuel. At the center of the action is a complex rule crafted after a multi-day session in the House Rules Committee, designed to govern floor debate for multiple measures at once. The rule packages together consideration of S 1318, a multi-year extension of FISA; HR 7567, the Farm Bill 2.0; and HR 1346, legislation to allow nationwide year-round E15 sales. It also opens the door for a separate provision — HR 1919 — to ban a central bank digital currency to be attached to the FISA reauthorization. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.)confirmed that leadership intends to move forward with the combined rule, which also incorporates the Fiscal Year 2026 budget resolution (SConRes. 33), following an extended and contentious Rules Committee process. That process yielded a sharply narrowed amendment pathway for the farm bill, with just 57 amendments made in order out of more than 360 filed by lawmakers (link). Among the most contentious was a proposal to strike language establishing federal pesticide labeling standards that would pre-empt state-level rules — an issue that drew significant debate. FIFRA pre-emption remains in the bill, but Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) gets an amendment to strike it. Meanwhile, an amendment targeting provisions tied to California’s Proposition 12 was excluded from the rule, preserving the underlying language in the bill. Separately, while a provision authorizing year-round E15 sales was not included directly in the farm bill rule, leadership plans to advance it on a parallel track, with the intent of attaching it to the farm bill after passage. If that standalone effort fails, however, the E15 language will not be folded into the broader legislation — raising the stakes for both votes. The procedural strategy has frustrated some lawmakers, particularly those who oppose bundling multiple major bills under a single rule rather than allowing standalone consideration. That dissatisfaction threatens the rule’s prospects on the floor, where even a small number of defections could derail the effort. Indeed, broader tensions within the House Republican Conference are complicating the path forward. Internal disagreements over FISA — particularly surveillance authorities and warrant requirements — have left leadership struggling to unify support. At the same time, Senate Republicans and the White House have expressed growing impatience with the House’s inability to advance key measures, including the expiring FISA authorities. Quotes of note: The debate has bucked a long tradition surrounding government spending, the Farm Bill and reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), all of which have historically passed with bipartisan support — a break that frustrated Democrats are quick to highlight. “You have a small majority and rather than working with us, you ice us out,” Rep. Jim McGovern (Mass.), the senior Democrat on the House Rules Committee, said Tuesday during a meeting on the various proposals. “We find ourselves in these situations where we come to the Rules Committee, we have long meetings, debates on amendments, and then we have to adjourn because the people on your side are fighting with each other.” As for the farm bill features, “All along the way, Republicans have ignored the warning that this was going to be very, very difficult. And the best path was to negotiate with Democrats a bipartisan farm bill,” said Rep. Angie Craig (Minn.), the senior Democrat on the Agriculture Committee. “So this is the outcome of failed policy and failed process.” The outcome of today’s vote will be critical. Approval of the rule would set the stage for floor action on multiple high-priority items, potentially allowing House Republicans to notch legislative progress ahead of the May recess. Failure, however, could force leadership to delay action, extend the legislative calendar, or punt key issues — including the FISA extension — into May, with significant policy and political ramifications. In short, the vote represents a pivotal moment not just for the individual bills at hand, but for the House’s ability to govern through an increasingly fractured majority. A source informs that part of the rule is budget resolution to kick off reconciliation 2.0 along with some inducements to bring along more conservative members. Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) said they’d oppose the rule after their amendments got rejected. If the GOP-crafted rule is defeated that would be a setback that could prove deeply damaging for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his leadership team. What comes next remains uncertain. Will Johnson keep the House in session through the weekend? Scrap the planned week-long May recess? Or ultimately rely on the Senate to prevent the lapse of the nation’s most critical foreign surveillance authority? The House GOP go-it-alone style will face additional hurdles in the Senate, where Democratic votes are needed to meet the filibuster’s 60-vote threshold.—Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, was trading above $114 today, and has climbed more than 25% over the past eight trading sessions.The average price of gasoline in the U.S. has risen to $4.23 a gallon, according to AAA. —Trump shifts to prolonged Iran blockade strategy amid stalled diplomacyWhite House bets economic pressure can force nuclear concessions as war enters uncertain phase President Donald Trump has directed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran, signaling a strategic pivot toward sustained economic pressure as the administration seeks to force Tehran into dismantling its nuclear program, according to the Wall Street Journal. The decision reflects a calculated choice among limited options. Rather than resume large-scale military strikes or accept a negotiated off-ramp on terms viewed as insufficient, Trump has opted to intensify restrictions on Iranian shipping and oil exports. The blockade is designed to choke off revenue to the regime, with U.S. officials indicating it is already straining Iran’s ability to store unsold crude and prompting renewed diplomatic outreach. Meanwhile, the strategy comes with significant trade-offs. The prolonged conflict has contributed to higher global energy prices and reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying economic risks and political pressure at home. The approach also commits U.S. forces to an open-ended regional presence, with no guarantee that Iran will ultimately concede on nuclear demands. At the core of the impasse is a fundamental disagreement over terms. The administration continues to insist on sweeping restrictions — including a long-term halt to uranium enrichment — while rejecting Iran’s phased proposals as inadequate. U.S. officials argue that easing pressure too early would sacrifice leverage, particularly as negotiations remain stalled and internal divisions within Iran complicate decision-making. The result is a strategic stalemate increasingly defined as “no deal, no war.” Some advisers and allies are urging continued pressure, while others warn that a prolonged blockade risks broader economic fallout or escalation. Iran, for its part, appears to be betting it can outlast U.S. resolve, raising the possibility of renewed disruptions to regional energy infrastructure or direct challenges to U.S. naval enforcement. As the conflict enters its next phase, the administration’s reliance on economic coercion underscores a central reality: neither side currently sees a clear path to a decisive outcome, leaving markets and policymakers bracing for a drawn-out confrontation.—USDA rolls out multi-pronged fertilizer strategy amid price surgeRollins outlines imports, antitrust scrutiny, and domestic production push as administration tries to respond to global supply shock USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and other Trump administration officials on April 28 unveiled a set of actions aimed at easing surging fertilizer costs, combining near-term supply relief with longer-term efforts to rebuild U.S. production capacity. At the center of the announcement was an “all-of-government” response to a fertilizer market shock driven largely by the Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for global nitrogen shipments. On the immediate front, USDA said it is taking steps to increase available supply and lower logistical bottlenecks. These include temporarily easing shipping restrictions (Jones Act), encouraging higher fertilizer imports, and coordinating across federal agencies to accelerate deliveries to U.S. farmers during peak planting season. Meanwhile, the administration is also escalating scrutiny of the fertilizer industry itself. Rollins confirmed that the Justice Department will examine market concentration and pricing behavior, noting that roughly 75% of the U.S. nitrogen fertilizer market is controlled by four companies — raising concerns about potential pricing power during a period of constrained supply. A key pillar of the April 28 plan is a renewed push to expand domestic fertilizer production. USDA is reviving a roughly $900 million federal program originally launched under the Biden administration to support construction of new fertilizer plants, while also working with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to direct additional investment toward reshoring production capacity. Rollins emphasized that regulatory reform will be critical to that effort, with the administration aiming to shorten permitting timelines that currently delay fertilizer plant construction by years. Federal agencies are identifying projects already in the pipeline that could be accelerated with funding and streamlined approvals. The announcement reflects a broader strategic shift toward treating fertilizer as both an economic and national security issue. Officials have repeatedly pointed to the combination of geopolitical disruptions and long-standing industry concentration as a structural vulnerability for U.S. agriculture, particularly as farmers face elevated input costs heading into the 2026 crop year. Taken together, the April 28 rollout signals a dual-track approach: stabilize prices in the short term through imports and logistics relief, while pursuing a longer-term restructuring of the U.S. fertilizer sector through domestic investment, regulatory changes, and increased antitrust oversight. Comments: The “huge” announcement as billed by Rollins was not huge but a rehash of previously mentioned items. For weeks Trump administration officials have said President Trump could use his authority to lift or temper duties on Moroccan fertilizer, but now Rollins said that may not have much impact. There is now a legislative initiative unveiled to lift the duties but this from a Congress that has shown it can’t do much if anything timely if at all (i.e., House 2.0 Farm Bill, year-round E15, appropriations bills, etc.). As for investing in reshoring fertilizer production, Tuesday’s announcement went back to a USDA/Biden initiative we detailed earlier this week (link). A comment that caught our attention was working with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to direct additional investment toward reshoring production capacity. Talk about an understatement. There are hundreds of billions of dollars in allied-country investment — often cited in the range of roughly $700–$750 billion in prospective Japanese investment into U.S. infrastructure, energy, and industrial projects — that could be partially directed toward fertilizer manufacturing. The argument is straightforward: fertilizer is a strategic input, and securing domestic production capacity should be treated similarly to semiconductors or energy infrastructure. The policy concept should be to “de-risk” large-scale fertilizer investments by pairing private capital with federal guarantees, tax incentives, or other backstops. That approach would aim to accelerate final investment decisions on new nitrogen, phosphate, and potash projects that are otherwise stalled by high upfront costs, regulatory uncertainty, and volatile global pricing. Rather than dispersing funding broadly across smaller or demonstration-scale projects — a critique often directed at programs from the Tom Vilsack era — the current strategy should prioritize “bankable scale.” In practice, that means channeling capital toward projects that can materially increase U.S. output and displace imports, particularly in nitrogen fertilizers tied to natural gas economics. That framing naturally elevates a small group of incumbents already positioned to expand quickly. Companies like CF Industries, CHS Inc., and Nutrien are widely viewed as leading candidates given their existing production footprint, access to feedstocks, and balance sheets capable of absorbing large-scale expansion. These firms already operate major nitrogen and phosphate facilities in North America and could scale output faster than new entrants building from scratch. The policy debate now centers on how explicitly the federal government should favor those incumbents versus fostering new competition. On one hand, directing capital toward established producers could yield faster capacity gains — a critical factor as geopolitical disruptions, including the Iran conflict and constraints through the Strait of Hormuz, continue to tighten global supply chains. On the other hand, critics warn that reinforcing incumbent dominance could deepen the same market concentration concerns that prompted the Justice Department’s antitrust review of fertilizer pricing. This is why one potential approach is to focus on some farmer cooperatives. Meanwhile, Japanese trading houses and industrial firms — long active in U.S. energy and chemicals — are seen as natural partners in this strategy. Their appetite for long-duration, asset-backed investments aligns with fertilizer plant economics, particularly if paired with U.S. policy support such as loan guarantees or long-term offtake agreements. Taken together, the emerging framework reflects a shift toward industrial policy in agriculture inputs: leverage allied capital, reduce investment risk, and scale domestic production through players already capable of delivering volume. The key question for markets — and for farmers facing elevated input costs — is whether that approach can move quickly enough to materially change supply dynamics ahead of the next planting cycles. Tuesday’s announcement was short on details but mostly a photo-op. A more serious detailed strategy is needed. —EPA pushes to accelerate next phase of biofuel mandatesZeldin tells lawmakers agency is moving quickly on RFS Set 3 and aims to finalize 2028 volumes on schedule Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin told lawmakers the agency is moving aggressively to develop the next phase of federal biofuel blending mandates, pledging to complete work on the Renewable Fuel Standard’s “Set 3” rule — including 2028 volume requirements — as quickly as possible. Testifying before the House Energy and Commerce Environment Subcommittee on the agency’s FY2027 budget, Zeldin said EPA began work on Set 3 immediately after finalizing Set 2, which established renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027. He was responding to a question from Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) about whether the agency would meet the statutory Nov. 1, 2026, deadline for finalizing 2028 standards. Quote of note: “We immediately moved to RFS Set 3 as soon as we finished RFS Set 2,” Zeldin said. “We will work as fast as we possibly can to be able to get this back on track.” Zeldin emphasized that the agency is attempting to restore predictability to the program after prior delays, noting that earlier deadlines were missed under the Biden administration for setting 2026–2027 volumes. He framed the current effort as part of a broader push to reestablish timely rulemaking for the Renewable Fuel Standard. A key operational hurdle — a backlog of small refinery exemption petitions — has now been cleared, according to Zeldin. The agency processed 175 pending exemptions, a step he said allows EPA to fully shift its focus to the Set 3 rulemaking. “Now that we’re done with Set 2, we were able to remove the 175 backlog in the small refinery exemptions,” he said. “We moved to Set 3, which we will work to complete as fast as we can.” The timeline for finalizing Set 3 will be closely watched by biofuel producers, refiners, and farm-state lawmakers, as it will determine blending requirements and market signals for ethanol and biodiesel heading into the latter part of the decade. —Trump’s Beijing trip murky as Iran talks stallOngoing war raises stakes for U.S./China summit while increasing pressure on White House As reported by the South China Morning Post, uncertainty surrounding stalled U.S./Iran peace negotiations is casting doubt on whether Donald Trump will proceed with a planned visit to Beijing, even as the geopolitical and economic stakes of a potential summit with Xi Jinping continue to rise. The Trump administration’s decision to extend a fragile ceasefire with Iran — while postponing further negotiations led by Vice President J.D. Vance — underscores deep mistrust between the parties and raises questions about whether conditions are stable enough for high-level diplomacy. Trump had already delayed his China trip from late March to mid-May to focus on the conflict. Chinese observers suggest that if the visit proceeds, it could serve as a critical opportunity to stabilize relations between the world’s two largest economies amid mounting fears that prolonged disruptions — particularly Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz — could tip the global economy toward recession. The strait remains a key chokepoint for fuel, fertilizer, and broader commodity flows. Meanwhile, analysts note that the longer the conflict drags on, the greater Beijing’s leverage becomes in any negotiations with Washington. Zhu Junwei of the Horizon Insights Centre said additional delays to the visit could damage Trump’s credibility, though they would not fundamentally alter bilateral ties, as most substantive agreements are typically negotiated in advance of leader-level meetings. Domestic political pressure is also intensifying for Trump. With the war entering its eighth week and supply disruptions contributing to rising inflation, the administration faces growing economic headwinds ahead of the November midterm elections. Observers say Trump may view a Beijing trip — and potential agreements on Chinese purchases of U.S. energy and agricultural products — as an opportunity to claim a political and economic win. Beijing, for its part, has signaled willingness to engage. Chinese officials have called for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and have reportedly played a quiet diplomatic role in encouraging Iran to engage in ceasefire talks, though they have not confirmed U.S. claims of direct involvement. Ultimately, analysts say Trump’s decision to travel to Beijing will hinge on a broader strategic calculation — weighing the trajectory of the Iran conflict against the potential benefits of re-engaging China at a moment of heightened global economic risk. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: U.S. stock futures are little changed ahead of today’s Fed decision and multiple widely anticipated Mag-7 earnings releases. Markets are likely to be quiet leading into the conclusion of the April Fed meeting with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) being the primary focus of today’s session.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price April 28 | Point Difference from April 27 | % Difference from April 27 |
| Dow | 49,141.93 | -25.86 | -0.05% |
| Nasdaq | 24,663.80 | -223.30 | -0.90% |
| S&P 500 | 7,138.80 | -35.11 | -0.49% |
—Fed signals hold as Powell faces final stretch amid war uncertainty
Central bank expected to keep rates unchanged while markets look to forward guidance and leadership transition signals
The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its latest meeting, with markets assigning a near-certainty to a hold. That places the focus squarely on the Fed’s post-meeting statement and how policymakers frame evolving risks — particularly the economic implications of the ongoing U.S./Iran conflict and broader Middle East instability.
Attention will center on whether the statement meaningfully departs from recent meetings, where language has remained largely unchanged. Any shift in tone regarding inflation risks, growth expectations, or geopolitical uncertainty could influence market expectations for the path of monetary policy.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to address reporters following the decision, delivering remarks that may carry added significance given the timing. Powell’s press conference comes as the U.S. Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance the nomination of Kevin Warsh to return to the central bank and assume the role of chair. While Senate confirmation is still required, the nomination is broadly viewed as likely to succeed, raising the possibility that Powell is nearing the end of his tenure.
The backdrop for the Fed’s decision remains unusually uncertain. While economic data has yet to show clear signs of deterioration tied to the Middle East conflict, policymakers are navigating a highly fluid environment. As a result, the Fed is expected to emphasize flexibility—signaling that policy is appropriately positioned to respond in either direction as conditions evolve.
Today will likely conclude Jerome Powell’s last Federal Reserve meeting as its chair. He leaves behind a legacy of inflation and defending the independence of the central bank under pressure from the president of the United States.
Market participants continue to lean toward eventual rate cuts, but persistent geopolitical risks have reinforced the case for patience. With Powell potentially presiding over one of his final press conferences as chair, his guidance is expected to underscore a wait-and-see approach — balancing steady policy today with optionality for future adjustments.
| AGRIBUSINESS |
—Bunge raises 2026 outlook as crush margins surge
Strong biofuel demand and war-driven commodity rally fuel earnings rebound for global agribusiness
Bunge Global SA lifted its 2026 earnings outlook, citing a powerful combination of expanding oilseed crush margins and strengthening biofuel demand, according to Reuters. The company now expects full-year adjusted earnings per share of $9.00 to $9.50, a sharp increase from its prior forecast of $7.50 to $8.00, after first-quarter results significantly exceeded analyst expectations.
The earnings upside reflects a rapid shift in market conditions driven by the Iran war and U.S. biofuel policy. Elevated crude oil prices have pushed soybean oil to multi-year highs, sharply improving crush economics for processors. At the same time, stronger global grain flows — as farmers released previously stored inventories amid rising prices — boosted trading and processing volumes across Bunge’s network.
Policy developments have reinforced the bullish backdrop. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s recent increase in biofuel blending mandates has improved demand visibility after a prolonged period of regulatory uncertainty. That shift has been particularly supportive for soybean oil demand tied to renewable diesel and other biofuels, further widening margins.
The rebound marks a notable turnaround for the sector, including peers such as Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill, following a period of weak earnings driven by global grain oversupply and trade disruptions.
Operationally, Bunge posted first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.83 per share — more than double consensus estimates — with soybean processing and refining sales surging 43% year over year to $9.55 billion. Its softseed segment also saw significant growth, reflecting improved margins and throughput.
Meanwhile, risks remain elevated. Management flagged ongoing tariff tensions and continued uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict as potential headwinds, noting that forward visibility remains limited despite the current strength in fundamentals.
| AG MARKETS |
—Cattle prices rose Tuesday as screwworm developments reshape supply outlook
Improved control measures and persistent biosecurity risks tighten near-term availability in an already constrained market
Cattle futures moved higher this week following reporting from Reuters that prices were supported in part by developments tied to the New World screwworm, a destructive parasitic pest that poses a serious threat to livestock (see related item below). The market reaction underscores how even incremental updates on animal health risks can quickly translate into price volatility when underlying supply conditions are already tight.
The New World screwworm, a fly whose larvae feed on the living tissue of animals, has long been viewed as a worst-case biosecurity threat for cattle producers. Infestations can spread rapidly through herds, leading to severe injury or death if left untreated. As a result, any indication that the pest is present — or that containment efforts are evolving — tends to trigger immediate reassessments of supply risk across the cattle complex.
In this case, information pointing to improved tools for managing or treating screwworm infestations appears to have had a counterintuitive bullish effect on prices. While stronger control measures reduce the likelihood of widespread herd losses over the longer term, they also encourage producers to hold cattle in the near term. With greater confidence that animals can be successfully treated and brought to market weight, feedlots and ranchers are less inclined to accelerate sales, effectively tightening immediate supplies.
Meanwhile, the broader uncertainty tied to the pest continues to disrupt normal market flows. Even limited outbreaks or heightened vigilance can slow cattle movements, complicate cross-border trade, and prompt more cautious marketing decisions. These frictions tend to reduce the volume of cattle entering the supply chain in the short run, adding further upward pressure on prices.
The reaction is being amplified by the current structure of the U.S. cattle cycle. Herd sizes remain near multi-decade lows following years of drought-driven liquidation and elevated input costs. In such an environment, the market is especially sensitive to any development that could further constrain supply, even temporarily. The combination of tight baseline fundamentals and shifting producer behavior creates a setup where both negative and positive developments tied to animal health can drive prices higher.
Trade dynamics also remain a key consideration. Animal disease concerns often raise the risk of export restrictions from trading partners, while credible containment measures help preserve market access. The latest developments appear to have struck a balance that limits long-term disruption while reinforcing near-term tightness, a dynamic that is supportive for prices.
Ultimately, the price response reflects a market grappling with both risk and resilience. The presence of a serious pest like screwworm introduces immediate uncertainty, while progress in managing the threat alters producer incentives in ways that restrict short-term supply. In a market already defined by limited cattle availability, that combination is proving to be a powerful driver of higher prices.
—Cash cattle surge to record highs as futures rebound sharply
Tight supplies and renewed buying momentum push prices higher, with market awaiting trade data for clarity on drivers
The cash cattle market surged Tuesday, with trade reported as high as $255 — a dramatic $8 to $10 jump from the prior week — signaling an aggressive shift in underlying demand and tightening supply conditions. The move marks one of the strongest week-over-week advances in recent months and underscores the continued strength in fed cattle markets.
Meanwhile, cattle futures reversed their recent downturn, with the break in prices coming to an abrupt end as contracts rallied back to — and in some cases exceeded — prior highs. The sharp rebound reflects renewed confidence in the market’s bullish fundamentals, including constrained herd sizes and steady beef demand, even as volatility persists across broader commodity markets.
Market participants remain uncertain about the primary driver behind the buying surge, with questions over whether commercial hedgers or speculative funds led the push higher. That distinction could prove critical in determining the durability of the rally. Traders are now looking ahead to Friday’s Commitments of Traders report, which may provide greater insight into positioning shifts and whether managed money has re-entered the market in size.
Here is what Nesvick Trading Group says:
•First concrete data signal that cattle liquidation phase may be ending → YTD heifers processed through auction & direct sales dropped to just 40.5% of total volume through Week 17; down sharply from 43% last year & well below the 44.2% liquidation peak of 2023–2024
• Must go back to 2014–2017 herd expansion window to find YTD retention figures this low → this metric may be more accurate than Cattle on Feed data since beef-on-dairy cattle typically bypass auction entirely
• Current week: heifers at just 42% of combined auction & direct sales (vs. 45% five-year avg) → in absolute terms, 86,000 head vs. historical avg of 100,600 head (-14.5%)
• Still early but significant → if sustained drop toward 40% threshold continues, feedlots will begin competing much more aggressively for a shrinking placement pool; tighter feeder supplies likely to act as structural floor under the market.
Tuesday’s price action ultimately resulted in new highs across both the cash and futures markets, reinforcing the strength of the current uptrend and leaving the market poised for further price discovery in the days ahead.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price April 28 | Change vs. April 27 |
| Corn | July | $4.75 1/2 | +6 1/4 cents |
| Soybeans | July | $11.89 1/4 | -2 3/4 cents |
| Soybean Meal | July | $327.40 | -$0.40 |
| Soybean Oil | July | 72.52 cents | +85 points |
| Wheat (SRW) | July | $6.57 3/4 | +28 cents |
| Wheat (HRW) | July | $7.02 1/4 | +27 cents |
| Spring Wheat | September | $7.29 1/4 | +18 cents |
| Cotton | July | 79.67 cents | +9 points |
| Live Cattle | June | $253.50 | +$4.55 |
| Feeder Cattle | May | $371.725 | +$4.275 |
| Lean Hogs | June | $101.975 | -$0.225 |
| NEW WORLD SCREWWORM |
—FDA expands emergency tools to combat New World Screwworm
Agency authorizes additional treatments and preventatives across livestock and wildlife species
The Food and Drug Administration has issued two new Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) for products aimed at preventing and treating infestations of New World Screwworm (NWS), further expanding the federal response toolkit as biosecurity concerns persist.
Details: On April 27 (link), the FDA authorized Negasunt Powder — a topical combination of coumaphos, propoxur, and sulfanilamide — for use across a broad range of animals, including cattle, swine, sheep, goats, horses, donkeys, and certain exotic and zoo mammals. The product’s sponsor, Elanco US, plans to distribute it primarily through USDA, which will then allocate supplies to authorized users. The agency indicated that, in the event of an NWS incursion in the U.S., the product could also be deployed under veterinary direction within designated infested and surveillance zones.
Separately, on April 24 (link), the FDA granted an EUA for F10 Antiseptic Barrier Ointment with Insecticide — a formulation containing benzalkonium chloride, polyhexanide, and cypermethrin — for both prevention and treatment of NWS. The ointment is available over the counter without a prescription and is approved for use in cattle, horses, small ruminants, birds (including raptors and pet species), and captive wildlife. This authorization builds on a prior March 10 EUA for a related F10 Antiseptic Wound Spray.
The latest approvals underscore an accelerating regulatory posture. Since August 2025, the FDA has issued a total of 10 EUAs for products targeting NWS across multiple animal species, reflecting heightened preparedness efforts amid ongoing concerns about the potential reintroduction or spread of the parasitic pest.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Wednesday: Oil surges past $115 as Hormuz closure sparks historic supply shock
Escalating U.S./Iran tensions and OPEC shifts tighten global crude outlook
Brent crude futures surged above $115 per barrel on Wednesday — the highest level since June 2022 — extending an eight-session rally as markets react to a rapidly tightening global supply picture driven by geopolitical disruptions.
At the center of the spike is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that typically facilitates roughly 20% of global oil trade. The disruption has sharply constrained seaborne crude flows, prompting the International Energy Agency to characterize the situation as the largest supply shock on record.
Tensions between the United States and Iran remain elevated, with Donald Trump indicating that Tehran has called for the U.S. to lift its naval blockade while diplomatic negotiations continue. Meanwhile, Washington is intensifying pressure on Iran through additional measures, including potential sanctions targeting Chinese refiners and countries continuing to pay transit-related fees tied to Hormuz shipments.
Compounding the bullish pressure on crude markets, the United Arab Emirates announced it will exit OPEC next month. The move is intended to give the UAE greater autonomy over production decisions, raising further uncertainty about coordinated supply management within the global oil market.
Together, the supply disruption in Hormuz, escalating geopolitical tensions, and fractures within OPEC are reinforcing a sharp upward repricing of crude, with traders increasingly factoring in prolonged constraints and heightened risk premiums across energy markets.
—Tuesday: Strait constraints override OPEC+ signal as oil rally extends
Supply disruptions through Hormuz drive prices higher despite UAE exit, reinforcing inflation risks and market volatility
Oil prices extended their rally Tuesday, with Brent crude settling at $111.26 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising to $99.93, as persistent supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz continued to dominate market sentiment. The gains — marking a seventh consecutive advance — came even as the OPEC+ framework faced a notable shift with the United Arab Emirates announcing its exit.
Under normal conditions, the UAE’s departure from OPEC+ would signal the potential for increased production and downward pressure on prices. Instead, the market largely discounted the move, reflecting the reality that additional barrels cannot easily reach global markets while transit through Hormuz remains severely constrained.
Shipping flows through the strait — a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil trade — continue to operate well below normal levels amid blockades and enforcement actions. While some cargoes are still moving, a growing share of crude is effectively stranded, with floating storage rising sharply. This dynamic underscores a widening disconnect between production capacity and deliverable supply, reinforcing the bullish tone in crude markets.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to resolve the disruption remain stalled. Ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran have yielded little progress, with recent negotiations failing to produce a viable path toward reopening the strait. The absence of a near-term resolution continues to anchor expectations for prolonged supply tightness.
Additional supply-side pressures are compounding the situation. Refining outages and infrastructure disruptions in key regions, including the U.S. and Russia, are tightening refined product markets. At the same time, the potential return of incremental exports from Asia introduces further uncertainty into an already constrained system.
The macroeconomic implications are becoming increasingly evident. Elevated crude prices are feeding into global inflation pressures, with higher gasoline costs in the U.S. highlighting the downstream impact on consumers. Even under scenarios involving gradual restoration of Middle Eastern flows, price forecasts suggest energy markets will remain elevated.
Until meaningful progress is made toward restoring throughput via the Strait of Hormuz, supply-side risks are expected to continue underpinning oil prices and sustaining heightened volatility across global energy markets.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Tariff evasion surged past $100 billion as importers exploited loopholes
New report highlights widespread duty avoidance tactics amid ongoing U.S. tariff refund process following court ruling
The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. failed to collect an estimated $107 billion in tariffs last year, as importers increasingly used a range of strategies to sidestep duties, according to a new analysis from AI-driven trade platform Altana.
A significant portion of the avoided tariffs — roughly $38 billion — stemmed from transshipment practices, where goods manufactured in China were routed through intermediary countries such as Vietnam, Mexico, or India to qualify for lower tariff rates. These rerouting strategies allowed importers to obscure the true country of origin and reduce their duty exposure.
Meanwhile, other forms of evasion included misclassifying products under tariff codes with lower rates and undervaluing shipments to reduce the assessed duties. The report also cited additional methods used to circumvent enforcement, underscoring the scale and sophistication of tariff avoidance across global supply chains.
The findings come at a sensitive moment for U.S. trade policy, as the government begins processing refunds tied to tariffs that were invalidated after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a legal basis for imposing certain duties. That ruling has triggered a large-scale repayment process, adding further complexity to an already strained tariff enforcement system.
Meanwhile, General Motors said Tuesday it is anticipating a $500 million tariff rebate, raising its full-year earnings guidance to between $13.5 billion and $15.5 billion. It’s part of the $166 billion the Trump administration will provide in refunds to some 300,000 U.S. importers—and the amount will be paid back with interest. Retailers like Walmart, Target and Nike are expected to receive at least $1 billion each. Eeconomists say consumers aren’t likely to benefit, and President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to raise prices by another 0.1% in 2026.
Together, the surge in evasion and the legal unwind of prior tariff collections highlight mounting challenges for U.S. trade authorities as they attempt to enforce duties, maintain revenue, and ensure compliance in an increasingly fragmented global trading environment.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Isolated severe weather and heavy rainfall possible today over portions of the Gulf Coast states and Mid Atlantic… …Another threat for flash flooding will return to portions of central and eastern Texas tomorrow…
…A cold front will bring cooler, below average temperatures to most of the central/eastern U.S. while the western U.S. trends warmer the next few days.
—Weather outlook splits Corn Belt, raises planting and crop risk concerns
Excess moisture delays southeastern fieldwork while cold and dryness stall northwestern planting; winter wheat faces renewed stress in the Plains
A sharply diverging weather pattern across the U.S. is creating uneven planting conditions and elevating crop risks heading into early May, with excessive rainfall hampering progress in the southeastern Corn Belt while cold and dryness impede activity farther northwest.
In the southeastern Corn Belt, heavy recent rains have already slowed fieldwork, and forecasts calling for a return to above-normal precipitation in Week Two are likely to compound delays. This raises concerns about timely corn and soybean planting as saturated soils limit equipment access and reduce early-season momentum.
Meanwhile, the northwestern Corn Belt is facing the opposite problem — persistent dryness — but with a critical twist: temperatures are expected to run 10–15 degrees below normal during the 6–10-day window. That cold snap, rather than soil moisture, will be the primary constraint on planting progress, as low soil temperatures inhibit germination and early crop development.
Conditions are similarly challenging in the Hard Red Winter wheat belt. While some near-term precipitation is expected to reach extreme western and southern areas, totals are falling well short of earlier projections. Southern Kansas, in particular, remains at risk, with insufficient moisture leaving developing wheat increasingly vulnerable during a key growth phase.
Across the broader central Plains, a pronounced cold pattern is set to dominate. Freezing morning temperatures are expected in parts of western Nebraska and northwestern Kansas over the next several days, followed by an even colder air mass during the 6–10-day period. These conditions pose a direct threat to emerged crops, raising the risk of frost damage and adding another layer of uncertainty to the early-season outlook.
