🌦️ Weather
- Rains continue across northern Brazil through Oct 22 before turning sharply drier from Oct 23 onward.
- Southern Brazil & Paraguay: heavy rains tonight – Saturday; mild temps, ideal for soybeans.
- Argentina: another week of dryness, wetter pattern returns late month.
- U.S.: dry east of the Mississippi until the weekend; severe weather risk late Sat–Sun; then another full week of dryness starting Mon (Oct 20).
- Southern Plains: trending drier again; record warmth persists (15 °F above normal).
🌾 Grains
- Grains firmed Tuesday while soy eased; China trade tensions resurfaced (port fees, rare-earths).
- Oil futures slumped with crude and palm; soy/oil finished slightly lower.
- CONAB: beans 177.6 mmt (~steady m/m); corn 138.6 mmt (+0.3 m/m).
- NOPA crush (11 AM): trade 186 mbu; some private 194-199 mbu; oil stocks ~1.22 bln lb.
- Wheat bounced off new lows; open interest surging, hinting at trapped shorts if downside stalls.
🐂 Livestock
- Live Cattle: prices rising but open interest falling → rally losing steam.
- Feeder Cattle: both price & open interest climbing → trend still strong.
- Divergence shows feeders have momentum while live cattle look toppy.
- Traders cautious about chasing further highs after strong run since June.
- Technical bias: feeders uptrend intact / live flattening.
💰 Financials
- Credit-card “perks war” heating up between AmEx & JPM Chase.
- Wealthiest 10% of households drive half of U.S. spending; banks target them with luxury cards.
- Flagship fees soar to $795–$895 while interest revenue fades.
- Strategy shifts to subscription-style models and exclusive ecosystems (Resy, lounges).
- Goal: lock in affluent spenders and hedge against future swipe-fee caps.
📅 Today’s Calendar (all times Central)
- MBA Mortgage Applications – 6:00 AM
- NOPA Crush – 11:00 AM
- Fed Beige Book – 1:00 PM
Tommy Grisafi
Nesvick Trading Group, LLC
424 Church Street, Suite 1330
Nashville, TN 37219
615-988-1882 (office)
219-477-9167 (cell)
Disclaimer : Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone
