🌦️ Weather
- 🌧️ Brazil: Regular rainfall continues through Oct 22, aiding planting, before a sharp dry shift Oct 23 onward.
- 🌦️ Southern Brazil & Paraguay: Big rains through Saturday and a cooler spell Oct 18–22 keep conditions excellent.
- ☀️ Argentina: Mostly dry another week, then wet late month, especially in Buenos Aires.
- 🇺🇸 U.S.: SE Corn Belt and Mid-South stay dry through Friday, with weekend storms possible; next week turns dry again before a wetter pattern develops Oct 26–30.
- 🌡️ Southern Plains: Below-normal rain continues; 11–15 day outlook trending wetter; warmth 10–15°F above normal persists.
🌾 Grains
- The government shutdown is now tied for third-longest ever; prediction markets split on whether it’ll be the longest.
- Loss of reports (WASDE, Crop Progress, COT) leaves markets flying blind.
- If government doesn’t reopen by Oct 24, the Nov WASDE could be canceled; next update may not come until January.
- With hot, dry finish, traders expect lower yields, but no data confirmation yet.
- Risk grows for a sharp correction once new yield data eventually arrives.
🐂 Livestock
- Cattle paused after an 11-day rally: +13.30 (Dec live) and +25.78 (Nov feeder) since Oct 1.
- Deferred spreads narrowing fast (Nov–Jan <3.00).
- Open interest building in 2026 contracts, suggesting long-term strength.
- Cash trade expected higher than last week ($232–235); feeder index ~375.
- Cattle on Feed report likely delayed by the shutdown — adds uncertainty next week.
💰 Financials
- Fast-casual & QSR chains (Chipotle, CAVA) showing weak results as customers shift to grocery/dollar/convenience stores.
- Casual dining gaining share with value promos (e.g. Chili’s “3 for Me”).
- Fine dining traffic remains strong, driven by affluent consumers.
- Sector now split by income — budget chains pressured, upscale thriving.
- Winners: those catering to affluent spenders or delivering clear value to price-sensitive diners.
📅 Today’s Calendar (all times Central)
- Retail Sales – 7:30 AM
- PPI – 7:30 AM
- Jobless Claims – 7:30 AM
- Natural Gas Storage Change – 9:30 AM
- EIA Energy Stocks – 11:00 AM
Tommy Grisafi
Nesvick Trading Group, LLC
424 Church Street, Suite 1330
Nashville, TN 37219
615-988-1882 (office)
219-477-9167 (cell)
Disclaimer : Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone
