🌦️ Weather
- 🌧️ Brazil: Regular rains across northern soybean areas continue 5–6 days, including the first major event for MaToPiBa, with some totals 2× normal. Pattern turns very dry Oct 23–27.
- 🌦️ Southern Brazil & Paraguay: Significant rains through Saturday, then dry until Oct 25; cool, near-perfect conditions follow.
- ☀️ Argentina: Mostly dry until Oct 23–27, when above-normal rain arrives before another dry spell.
- 🇺🇸 U.S.: Widespread weekend rain for the eastern Corn Belt & Mid-South (totals >2″), including severe storms Saturday. Dry week ahead, then a potential strong storm Oct 27–28 with heavy rain + winds.
- 🌡️ Temperature: No cold risk; 10–15°F above normal across the central U.S. through next week.
🌾 Grains
- 🫘 Beans trading sideways: Nov near $10.00–10.20, rangebound.
- 🧾 NOPA crush record high for September, beating trade ideas by 20 million bushels; margins still strong near $1.58/bu.
- 🚜 Harvest ~75% done; most farmers storing beans.
- 🌍 Brazil production outlook split: most estimate up 6–7 mmt, while Craig’s La Niña model projects 162.5 mmt (–9 mmt).
- ⚖️ Global trade math tightening — production uncertainty + strong crush demand = little room for supply errors.
🐂 Livestock
- 🐄 Cattle on Feed (Oct 24) may be delayed by the shutdown.
- 📉 Placements down ~8% since May (–775k head); smaller fed supplies expected later this fall.
- 🕰️ Marketing pace slow — September slaughter down 9% YoY, inventories still 1–2% below last year.
- ⚖️ Record-heavy cattle on feed (+21% YoY > 150 days) should keep fed beef tonnage high into early 2026.
- 📊 Feedlots extending days on feed as incentives stay strong.
💰 Financials
- 🏛️ Fed split: Waller favors gradual 0.25% cuts, Miran wants faster 0.50% amid China trade risks.
- 💵 Wealthy consumers still spending, offsetting middle-class pullback.
- 📉 Beige Book (10/15) shows mixed growth, fueling policy debate.
- 🔮 Likely outcome: 0.25% cut at Oct 28–29 meeting; future pace hinges on labor & trade data.
- 📊 Markets watching for hints on December policy direction.
📅 Today’s Calendar (all times Central)
- Housing Starts / Building Permits – 7:30 AM
Tommy Grisafi
Nesvick Trading Group, LLC
424 Church Street, Suite 1330
Nashville, TN 37219
615-988-1882 (office)
219-477-9167 (cell)
Disclaimer : Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone
