🌦️ Weather
- 🌞 Brazil: Northern Brazil faces a major dry stretch for at least the next week, forcing soybeans to rely on existing moisture until rains return in early November.
- 🌦️ Southern Brazil & Paraguay: Excellent conditions — dry through Saturday, then heavy rains (Oct 26–28) expected to refresh fields.
- ☔ Argentina: A wet spell through Friday (1.5–2.5″) improves most areas but worsens flooding near Buenos Aires; a week-long dry period follows.
- 🇺🇸 U.S.: The Corn Belt stays dry and ideal for harvest, though first freezes are arriving. The once-feared Oct 27–28 storm looks weaker but could still bring strong winds. The Southern Plains see rains starting Thursday night, expanding into the Mid-South by the weekend.
🌾 Grains
- ⚖️ Quiet trade with meal firm and oilshare correcting lower.
- 🗞️ Trump’s conflicting tariff headlines stirred volatility; talk of a possible Xi meeting remains inconsistent.
- 🌽 Better corn yields are surfacing, while API’s opposition to year-round E15 weighed on sentiment.
- 🌾 Focus shifts to wheat, where global production keeps growing — Argentina up to 23 mmt, Australia 35–36 mmt, and Russia possibly 88 mmt.
- 🏦 Exporter wheat stocks projected to be the largest since 2014/15, signaling a heavily supplied market.
🐂 Livestock
- 🐄 Cattle supply overhangs fading, as feedlots appear to have worked through backlogs with little disruption.
- 💪 Outlook turns constructive if packer demand strengthens amid improving beef margins.
- 💵 Margins still negative, but seasonal beef price gains could ease pressure and support cash prices.
💰 Financials
- 🏘️ Multifamily loan delinquencies rising — now at 0.48%, surpassing the 2008 peak (0.44%).
- 💣 Causes: Higher refinancing costs, surging taxes/insurance, and apartment oversupply after the 2021–22 rent boom.
- 🧱 Unlike 2008, this stress is limited to multifamily; single-family loans remain stable thanks to low fixed rates.
- 🏦 Analysts warn of a “refinancing cliff” as older loans reset at higher rates, pressuring landlords’ cash flow.
📅 Today’s Calendar (Central Time)
- 🏠 MBA Mortgage Applications – 6:00 AM
- ⛽ EIA Energy Stocks – 9:30 AM
Tommy Grisafi
Nesvick Trading Group, LLC
424 Church Street, Suite 1330
Nashville, TN 37219
615-988-1882 (office)
219-477-9167 (cell)
Disclaimer : Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone
