Analysis of Tyson Closing Neb. Beef Plant, Scaling Back Texas Operation
Marjorie Taylor Green abruptly exits Congress as of Jan. 5
Link: Tyson to Shutter Lexington, Neb. Beef Plant, Cut Shift in Texas
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 21
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 21
Today’s Updates:
BEEF & CATTLE INDUSTRY
— Tyson to close Nebraska beef plant, scale back Texas operation amid herd shortage
— USCA warns Washington: stop sending “don’t invest” signals to U.S. ranchers
POLITICS
— Marjorie Taylor Greene abruptly exits Congress as of Jan. 5 after rift with Trump
— Supreme Court pauses block on Texas map, for now
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities Friday and weekly change
— Stocks whipsawed throughout the week
U.S. ECONOMY & CONSUMER
— U.S. retail sales show resilience even as pressures build
AG MARKETS
— Brazil’s beef back in play as Washington lifts tariffs
— Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change
FARM POLICY
— Update: USDA Secretary Rollins: emergency farm aid coming in early December
— Hemp ban after government re-opening threatens a $28 billion industry
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Friday: Oil prices slip to one-month lows on peace talks and rate uncertainty
TRADE POLICY
— Brazil warns of U.S. market loss for instant coffee
— White House drafts contingency plan if Supreme Court strikes tariff powers
HPAI / BIRD FLU
— Washington State records first human H5N5 bird flu death
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 22, 2025
Up Front— Tyson plant closure in Neb.; cut in shift in Texas Tyson will shut its Lexington, Neb. beef plant and cut a shift in Amarillo, Tex, removing major slaughter capacity as the industry struggles with the smallest cattle herd in decades and high costs.— USCA warning to Washington The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association says recent tariff rollbacks and expanded beef imports undermine herd rebuilding and send damaging “don’t invest” signals to U.S. ranchers.— Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns A major GOP rupture: MTG will leave Congress Jan. 5 after a public feud with President Trump, narrowing Republicans’ fragile House majority and triggering a special election.— Supreme Court Texas map ruling The Supreme Court temporarily allowed Texas to use its GOP-favored congressional map while it reviews whether the redraw was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.— Equities Friday/weekly Stocks seesawed all week; Thursday’s Nvidia-driven tech surge faded as markets fell Friday amid AI-spending worries, Fed uncertainty, and crypto-related selling pressure.— U.S. retail sales resilience Retail spending stayed firm heading into fall, though consumer confidence is weakening and job worries are increasing as higher prices strain lower-income households.— Brazil beef tariff rollback impact The U.S. lifted its additional 40% tariff on Brazilian beef, restoring Brazil’s full quota access and eroding Paraguay’s temporary competitive advantage in the U.S. market.— Ag markets recap Mixed grain and livestock markets Friday, with weaker corn and wheat, slightly stronger soybeans, and continued pressure on cattle and feeders.— USDA emergency aid update Secretary Rollins says long-awaited farm aid will be announced the first week of December, though the final package may be smaller than earlier estimates.— Hemp-derived THC ban risk A funding-bill amendment could effectively outlaw most hemp-derived THC products within a year, threatening a $28B industry, according to Forbes.— Friday oil-price drop Crude fell to one-month lows as U.S. pressure for a Russia/Ukraine peace framework and rate uncertainty raised oversupply concerns and strengthened the dollar.— Brazil instant coffee concern Brazil’s instant coffee sector warns it could lose U.S. market share after Trump kept a 50% tariff on the product while lifting duties on other Brazilian goods.— White House tariff fallback plan Bloomberg reports the Trump administration is preparing backup tools to quickly reimpose tariffs if the Supreme Court overturns Trump’s IEEPA-based authorities.— First human H5N5 death Washington State reported the world’s first confirmed human H5N5 bird-flu fatality; officials say public risk remains low and no human transmission has been detected. Top Stories—Tyson to close Nebraska beef plant, scale back Texas Operation amid herd shortageTraders, analysts comment on Tyson’s actions Tyson Foods will shut down its major beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska, and cut to a single shift at its Amarillo, Texas, facility as the company contends with steep losses driven by the smallest U.S. cattle herd in decades. The moves will affect about 4,900 workers and remove one of the nation’s largest slaughter plants from the supply chain, underscoring severe pressure on packers facing record-high cattle costs and persistently expensive retail beef. Link to special report for details and analysis. The Lexington closure — scheduled for January — marks a significant capacity reduction and poses immediate economic challenges for regional cattle producers and the surrounding community. Growers will face longer hauls and fewer competitive bids, while local officials warn of major economic fallout. Tyson, which has lost more than $700 million in beef over the past two years, said production will be redistributed to other plants as it works to “right-size” its operations. Tyson has faced challenges in recent years, with earnings performance lagging behind some of its competitors. Industry sources say the company’s purchasing and sales strategies have not consistently delivered the desired results, and higher fixed and variable operating costs have also played a role in shaping current decisions. With the announced plant closures, analysts say Tyson appears to be moving toward a model like its chicken operations — one in which production relies more heavily on formula-based orders and streamlined, highly automated processes. According to a veteran meat industry analyst: “One of the hardest things cattle feeders have had to navigate in 2025 has been the closure of the Mexican border. The closure reduced the supply of available feeder cattle to place by 800,00-1,000,000 hd, roughly 8% of the total cattle on feed. Cattle feeders responded to this shock by pushing their marketings out into the future and adding days to their feeding regime. This acts like the industry pushed 800,000 hd away from the normal marketing window throughout the year and into the future. These cattle are overfat and have to be marketed in the coming months but are now being met with 8% less demand for their supply (Tysons closures pulls roughly 8% away from the daily slaughter capacity). 8% reduction in demand typically implies prices will fall by 2.5% per every 1% or $20/cwt. “The effect of the changes in import tariffs (Brazil beef) will aid in reducing ground beef prices at the store. However, the soonest this imported supply can move into the U.S. from the time a purchase order is placed and then able to be used in a processing facility is 75 days. Jan.1 is when Brazil TRQ of 65,000 metric tons resets to 0% from 25.4%. So importers are bringing in beef now but it will sit in bonded warehouses until the 26.4% is 0%, then pull them out on Jan. 2 and start using them.” (Note: The executive order states the removal of beef tariffs on Brazil is effective retroactively — for goods “entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption” after 12:01 a.m. ET on Nov. 13, 2025.” The order also provides that duties previously paid under the higher rate (for goods entered on or after that date) may be subject to refund. See Ag Markets section for more on this topic.) The analyst concluded: “As a result, beef prices are expected to but that will take a while. While this is the beef market math, the cattle market typically moves with futures first, cash cattle second, beef last.”  Cattle prices: December live cattle futures on Friday fell 27 1/2 cents to $214.45, nearer the daily high after hitting a 4.5-month low early on. For the week, December live cattle were down $4.70. January feeder cattle futures closed down $2.15 at $314.225, nearer the daily high and hit a 4.5-month low. For the week, January feeders were down $6.325. —USCA warns Washington: Stop sending “don’t invest” signals to U.S. ranchersCattlemen say tariff rollbacks and import expansions undermine herd rebuilding and market stability The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) issued a sharply worded statement urging the federal government to refocus on domestic producers after a series of trade and tariff decisions — most notably the cancellation of 40% tariffs on Brazilian beef — added new uncertainty to an already strained cattle market. With the U.S. cattle herd sitting at a 75-year low, ranchers are only beginning to see price levels that make operations sustainable. USCA argues that Washington’s recent actions — clearing the way for more Argentine beef, exempting imported beef from reciprocal tariffs, and now removing the 40% duty on Brazilian product — reverse critical signals needed to support reinvestment in the domestic herd. USCA emphasized that tariffs can be effective tools when applied consistently and strategically, strengthening U.S. ranchers’ competitive position and protecting consumers from products linked to forced labor, deforestation, and integrity issues, as is the case with parts of Brazil’s beef sector. The group warned that the administration’s recent moves reflect an “inconsistent and unsafe” approach. USCA President Justin Tupper put it bluntly: “When Washington pushes policies that flood the market with imported beef, it sends a crystal-clear message to every American rancher: ‘Don’t invest.’ We cannot rebuild our domestic herd if every signal we receive tells us we’ll be undercut by foreign supply.” Tupper added that while ranchers support fair competition, long-term survival requires clear policy direction that strengthens U.S. production and food security — not a growing reliance on imports. The association also voiced support for the DOJ’s newly announced investigation of the Big Four meatpackers, but cautioned that past probes “left producers without answers.” USCA is pressing for meaningful enforcement that leads to tangible reforms in cattle markets. USCA concluded by urging the administration and Congress to pursue policies that “build, not bypass,” U.S. producers: “Our ranchers produce the world’s highest-quality beef. Let’s set the example—and set the table—with American-grown.” —Marjorie Taylor Greene abruptly exits Congress as of Jan. 5 as rift with Trump explodesOnce one of Trump’s fiercest defenders, Greene steps down after being branded a “traitor,” narrowing the GOP’s already fragile House majority A GOP rupture. Marjorie Taylor Greene — long considered one of President Donald Trump’s most loyal allies on Capitol Hill — announced she will resign from Congress on Jan. 5, marking a dramatic and deeply personal rupture within the Republican Party. Greene revealed her decision Friday evening on X, saying she could not put her family or her northwest Georgia district through what she described as a “hurtful and hateful” primary battle backed by the president himself. Her departure arrives just after she qualified for a congressional pension, completing five years of service. The break between Greene and Trump began after she spearheaded a legislative push to compel the Justice Department to release the files of sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. Trump responded by publicly labeling her a “traitor” and signaling he would support a challenger in the 2026 GOP primary. Trump later called her resignation “great news for the country,” and said he had no advance notice of her announcement. However, Trump told NBC News he would like to see Greene resume her political career at some point, despite their recent falling out. In a brief phone interview, the president said, “It’s not going to be easy for her” to revive her career in politics, though he added, “I’d love to see that.” Greene — who has recently criticized Trump for focusing too much on foreign affairs and remains one of the House’s most vocal opponents of U.S. aid to Ukraine — said she refused to be a “battered wife” waiting for the relationship to improve. Her decision weakens Republicans’ already narrow majority in the House as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) faces another funding deadline. The chamber currently stands at 219–213, with three existing vacancies and now a fourth looming. Although Greene’s deep-red Georgia district is expected to stay in GOP hands, the timing complicates internal party dynamics heading into a consequential legislative stretch. The exact date for the special election to fill the vacancy in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District after Greene’s resignation has not yet been set. Under Georgia law, the governor has up to 10 days after the vacancy to call a special election. The election must be scheduled at least 30 days after the call. Once the governor issues the election call, the timeline for candidate qualifiers, possible runoff, etc., will be announced. Despite years of clashes with Democrats over her incendiary rhetoric, Greene found unexpected bipartisan alignment on the Epstein records issue. But aside from that flash of cooperation, her standing within the Trump-era GOP ultimately collapsed — bringing an abrupt end to one of his most controversial congressional alliances.—Supreme Court pauses block on Texas map, for nowTemporary reprieve allows GOP-favored districts to remain in place while high court weighs appeal The Supreme Court on Friday allowed Texas to temporarily use its newly redrawn congressional map — one that could give Republicans an advantage in securing up to five additional House seats — while the justices consider the state’s appeal of a lower-court ruling that found the map to be an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.’s administrative stay puts on hold a 2–1 ruling by a federal judicial panel that said Texas lawmakers had “explicitly directed the Legislature to redistrict based on race,” violating constitutional limits. Alito asked challengers to respond by Monday, setting up a likely decision within days or weeks — just as Texas approaches its Dec. 8 filing deadline for 2026 candidates and prepares for March primaries. The dispute reflects a broader national trend: states on both sides of the political aisle are redrawing congressional districts mid-decade — an unusual step — seeking to shape the battlefield ahead of the 2026 midterms. President Donald Trump personally urged Texas lawmakers earlier this year to reshape their map to strengthen GOP prospects. Several Republican-led states, including Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio, have followed suit; California has done the same to benefit Democrats. The Texas case turns on the delicate line between permissible partisan motivations and prohibited racial ones. While the Justice Department’s civil-rights division argued in a 2024 letter that certain “coalition districts” combining Black and Hispanic voters were unconstitutional, the three-judge panel found DOJ’s claim legally incorrect — and described the letter as riddled with “factual, legal, and typographical errors.” But because Gov. Greg Abbott cited that letter as the explicit reason for demanding a new map, the court concluded that race — not politics — had improperly driven the redraw. Texas officials insist the map is lawful. Abbott called accusations of racial discrimination “absurd,” saying lawmakers aimed only to “better reflect Texans’ conservative voting preferences.” The state appealed swiftly to the Supreme Court. The stakes are high: Republicans currently hold a narrow 219–214 majority in the U.S. House, and control of the chamber in 2027 may hinge on just a handful of seats. Similar redistricting fights are underway in California, Missouri, and North Carolina, with more cases likely to reach the high court. Separately, the Court recently heard arguments in a case that could further restrict the use of race in districting — potentially undermining the last major protections of the Voting Rights Act and prompting a new wave of map-drawing efforts before the midterms. Bottom Line: For now, Texas’s GOP-tilted map remains in effect — but only temporarily, as the justices prepare to decide whether the state crossed the constitutional line. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities Friday and weekly change:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. 21 | Point Difference from Nov. 20 | % Difference from Nov. 20 | Weekly Change |
| Dow | 46,245.41 | +493.15 | +1.08% | -1.91% |
| Nasdaq | 22,273.08 | +195.03 | +0.88% | -2.74% |
| S&P 500 | 6,602.99 | +64.23 | +0.98% | -1.95% |
—Stocks whipsawed throughout the week. Tech shares jumped on Thursday after Nvidia delivered stronger-than-expected earnings the prior evening, but the momentum quickly faded as global markets slid again on Friday. Investors grew increasingly cautious amid mounting worries about outsized AI spending, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next rate move, and a renewed Bitcoin downturn that may have prompted some traders to liquidate other assets to meet crypto margin calls.
—U.S. retail sales show resilience even as pressures build
Consumer spending stays firm heading into fall, but confidence and job worries signal cracks ahead
U.S. retail spending likely cooled slightly in September but remained solid overall, pointing to a resilient consumer even as economic risks accumulate. Economists expect Tuesday’s delayed Census Bureau report — held up by the government shutdown — to show a 0.4% rise in retail sales, following August’s 0.6% increase.
Retail strength over the summer helped power a stronger third quarter, but momentum may be fading. Employers have slowed hiring, and household anxiety is growing: University of Michigan surveys show the weakest personal-finance sentiment since 2009 and the highest perceived risk of job loss in five years.
Much of the recent spending resilience is coming from higher-income shoppers benefiting from stock-market gains. Lower-income households, facing elevated prices for essentials, are pulling back. Retailers illustrate the divide: Walmart and Gap posted strong results, but Home Depot warned that big-ticket spending and remodeling projects are being delayed.
The week ahead brings other key indicators — the PPI, durable-goods orders, jobless claims, and the Fed’s Beige Book — all expected to underscore softening labor-market conditions. Bloomberg Economics says the recovery remains fragile and argues the Fed “can and probably should” cut rates in December to support growth.
Also in North America, Canada reports third-quarter GDP Friday. Growth likely ticked up slightly after a contraction in the spring, though manufacturing remains battered by U.S. tariffs. Markets see only a slim chance of a Bank of Canada rate cut on Dec. 10, but the underlying data are expected to confirm a sluggish economy.
| AG MARKETS |
—Brazil’s beef back in play as Washington lifts tariffs
U.S. reversal upends Mercosur dynamics and undercuts Paraguay’s recent market gains
The Trump administration’s decision to scrap the additional 40% U.S. tariff on Brazilian agricultural products — including beef — has triggered an immediate reshuffling of competitive dynamics across Mercosur. The move, formalized in a new executive order (link), restores Brazil’s full access to the third-country beef quota, which permits roughly 50,000 tons of duty-free shipments annually.
Brazil regains its competitive edge. With the tariff lifted and duties collected since Nov. 13 set to be refunded, Brazil returns to a position of strength in the U.S. market. Historically an aggressive exporter, Brazil has often filled its quota as early as Q1 — and in 2025, even before the end of January. Beyond quota shipments, Brazil already sells more than 250,000 tons of beef annually into the U.S., a flow that could expand now that its competitive handicap has been removed.
Paraguay loses a rare advantage. No country stands to lose more than Paraguay, which had enjoyed an exceptional opening in the U.S. market while Brazil was sidelined by the tariff. Paraguayan packers built a dual strategy:
• Quota sales with premium pricing and predictability
• Out-of-quota sales where muted competition allowed for unusually strong negotiated values
Brazil’s re-entry sharply narrows this window. Increased supply and faster placement by Brazil are likely to pressure prices and compress margins for Paraguayan exporters. Even so, analysts expect robust U.S. demand through at least 2027, which may soften the blow of Brazil’s return.
A diplomatic reset behind the shift. The tariff removal follows negotiations that began in October between President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The U.S. imposed the 40% tariff in July, alleging economic and security risks tied to Brazilian policies — sparking diplomatic strain and industry pushback.
Note: The additional 40% tariff on Brazilian-origin imports was announced on July 30 via Executive Order 14323. The tariff became effective Aug. 6, 2025, for goods entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse.
The new executive order cites “initial progress” in bilateral talks as justification for the reversal and includes tariff relief for some types of coffee, beef, tomatoes, mangoes, and other products, though some items face seasonal limitations.
Regional implications for Mercosur. Washington’s move reshapes the competitive map:
• Brazil regains full quota access and reasserts dominance
• Paraguay loses a temporary but highly profitable opening
• Argentina and Uruguay — though outside this specific quota — must now navigate a U.S. market with intensified regional supply pressure
For Mercosur, the U.S. policy shift marks the start of a new phase — one in which Brazil again commands the center of the region’s meat export equation, and competitors must recalibrate quickly to stay competitive.
—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov. 21 | Difference from Nov. 20 | Weekly Change |
| Corn | Dec | 4.25 1/2 | -1 cent | -4 3/4 cents |
| Soybeans | Jan | 11.25 | +2 1/2 cents | +1/2 cent |
| Soybean Meal | Dec | 315.10 | +1.10 | -7.40 |
| Bean Oil | Dec | 50.26 | -40 points | +11 points |
| SRW Wheat | Dec | 5.27 | unchanged | -17 1/4 cents |
| HRW Wheat | Dec | 5.11 | +4 3/4 cents | -4 1/4 cents |
| Spring Wheat | Dec | 5.65 | -7 3/4 cents | -1/4 cent |
| Cotton | Dec | 61.35 | -33 points | N/A |
| Live Cattle | Dec | 214.45 | -27 1/2 cents | -4.70 |
| Feeder Cattle | Jan | 314.225 | -2.15 | -6.325 |
| Lean Hogs | Dec | 77.80 | -1.675 | -0.70 |
| FARM POLICY |
—Update: USDA Secretary Rollins: emergency farm aid coming in early December
USDA signals first-week announcement as industry pressures mount
Rollins said this week that long-awaited emergency assistance for producers will be formally announced in the first week of December, noting the department has now “analyzed” market conditions and finalized its formulas. Rollins acknowledged that row-crop producers have endured “tough times” for years and said the administration aims to provide meaningful, if not complete, relief as farmers plan for next year’s planting.
While earlier expectations centered on a $12–$13 billion package, recent reports suggest the final amount may be lower as the administration reassesses market conditions — including firmer soybean futures. USDA Undersecretary Richard Fordyce emphasized that any aid “must reflect what’s actually happening in the marketplace.”
The comments come amid intense pressure from farm groups, economists, producers, and lawmakers, all arguing that conditions in farm country have not improved since the administration first promised major relief. Senate Ag Appropriations Chair John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said Congress is evaluating whether a supplemental legislative package may still be needed, calling the aid part of a broader bridge to next year’s support under the One Big, Beautiful Bill and pointing to the importance of improved sales and year-round E15.
—Hemp ban after government re-opening threatens a $28 billion industry
Forbes: Amendment in funding bill could wipe out most hemp-derived THC products within a year
The federal government has reopened — but the U.S. hemp industry may not survive the price of the deal. According to Forbes reporter Will Yakowicz, an amendment tucked inside the Agriculture Appropriations section of the government-funding minibus effectively outlaws most hemp-derived THC products, threatening a sector worth $28 billion that has flourished since the 2018 Farm Bill.
A new definition of hemp — and a new ban. The 2018 Farm Bill legalized hemp and all its derivatives, unlocking a booming market of THC-infused beverages, gummies, tinctures, edibles, and vape products sold online, in gas stations, and even at major retailers such as Target, Circle K, and Total Wine, Forbes reports. These products — often created by converting CBD into delta-9 THC or other cannabinoids — have served as a lifeline for cannabis companies navigating restrictive marijuana laws.
The new amendment rewrites the definition of hemp and closes the “synthetic cannabinoid” loophole by:
• Banning the synthetic conversion of cannabinoids, including CBD-to-THC processing.
• Limiting total THC content to 0.4 milligrams per package — compared with today’s products that typically contain 5–1,000 milligrams.
• Imposing a 365-day wind-down period before the rule takes effect.
Effectively, most hemp products on the market would become Schedule I narcotics once the ban is implemented.
Industry reaction: “An extinction-level event.” Jim Higdon of Kentucky-based Cornbread Hemp told Forbes: “This is an extinction level event for the CBD products industry, and the greater hemp and hemp beverage industry.”
Cornbread, with roughly $40 million in expected 2025 revenue, expects catastrophic losses unless Congress acts. Higdon and others plan to spend the next year lobbying aggressively — especially Kentucky lawmakers such as House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie.
Ironically, Forbes notes the architect of the 2018 Farm Bill, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), is a leading force behind the new ban. McConnell argues that intoxicating hemp products are “poisoning Kentucky’s kids,” citing rising poison-control calls. A counter-amendment by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to strip the hemp language failed 76–24.
Businesses scramble across the supply chain. The one-year runway has set off a sprint:
• Edibles.com, whose parent company is Edible Arrangements, says the next year is “not one year to ban, it’s one year to regulate,” emphasizing lobbying opportunities.
• Curaleaf CEO Boris Jordan told Forbes the company’s hemp revenue is “a decimal point” in its $1.3 billion business, but warned that enforcement will determine the real impact: “If they don’t enforce it, well then it was a giant waste of time.”
• Big Alcohol, according to Forbes, pushed for the ban, hoping to limit competition in the THC beverage market.
• 3Chi, which built a $100 million empire manufacturing potent hemp-derived THC products, says 90% of its lineup would instantly become illegal under the new cap. The company is now weighing a move into state-legal marijuana markets.
• Wynk and BestBev — together projecting $80 million in revenue this year — are using the grace period to both expand sales and escalate lobbying.
The road ahead. Industry leaders highlighted by Forbes are now pursuing a dual strategy:
• Maximize sales during the 12-month window, and
• Push Congress toward a regulatory fix rather than an outright ban.
As Wynk’s Angus Rittenburg put it: “It’s a full-court press while they have the opportunity… There’s a very real opportunity to revert this in the final days before the ban.”
Upshot: Whether this is the beginning of the end — or simply the start of a new regulatory era — depends on whether lawmakers revisit the amendment before the 365-day clock runs out.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Friday: Oil prices slip to one-month lows on peace talks and rate uncertainty
Washington’s push for a Russia/Ukraine framework and mixed Fed signals weigh on crude
Oil prices slipped on Friday to their lowest levels in a month as traders digested Washington’s renewed pressure for a Russia/Ukraine peace deal and lingering uncertainty over U.S. interest-rate policy. Brent settled down $0.82 at $62.56, while WTI dropped $0.94 to $58.06. Both benchmarks lost roughly 3% for the week, returning to levels last seen on Oct. 21.
Diplomatic maneuvering drove much of the caution. The Trump administration has urged Kyiv to consider a U.S.-drafted plan that would require territorial concessions and limits on Ukraine’s military — proposals President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long opposed. Kyiv said it would at least review the plan, raising market speculation that looming sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could be softened if talks advance. Moscow said the framework could serve as a basis for a settlement but warned it would escalate militarily if Kyiv refuses.
Even without a deal, the prospect of increased Russian oil availability nudged the market toward oversupply concerns. Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil formally took effect Friday, with Lukoil still facing a Dec. 13 deadline to divest foreign assets. Traders also questioned how strictly enforcement will be carried out.
A firmer U.S. dollar — touching a six-month high — added further pressure by making crude more expensive for overseas buyers. At the same time, mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials kept investors on edge: some policymakers emphasized keeping rates on hold longer, while others said cuts are still possible in the near term.
Economic data offered little relief. U.S. factory activity slowed in November as higher import costs from new tariffs weighed on demand and pushed inventories higher, adding to concerns about near-term fuel consumption and reinforcing the week’s bearish tone.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Brazil warns of U.S. market loss for instant coffee
Sector says Trump’s decision to keep 50% tariff threatens long-term foothold
Brazil’s instant coffee industry fears it could permanently lose ground in the U.S. market after President Donald Trump opted to maintain a 50% tariff on the product, even as he lifted duties on a wide range of other Brazilian agricultural goods.
The Brazilian Instant Coffee Association (ABICS) said Friday that Trump’s latest executive order — removing 40% tariffs on Brazilian beef, green coffee beans, cocoa, and fruit — left instant coffee off the exemption list.
The United States currently accounts for 20% of Brazil’s instant coffee exports.
ABICS warned that the failure to lift the tariff “contrasts with the overall progress in bilateral negotiations” and risks a structural shift in the U.S. market, where competitors could permanently displace Brazilian suppliers. “Once that market share and consumer loyalty are lost, future recovery will be an extremely difficult mission,” the group said.
Other parts of Brazil’s coffee sector expressed relief. Specialty coffee exporters, who saw shipments plunge 55% during the August–October tariff period, welcomed the removal of duties. The Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association said the change corrects a “distortion” between the world’s largest coffee producer and the U.S., its top buyer.
—White House drafts contingency plan if Supreme Court strikes tariff powers
Administration maps out rapid-replacement strategy using alternative trade authorities
The Trump administration is quietly preparing fallback options in case the Supreme Court overturns one of President Donald Trump’s core tariff authorities, signaling that even an adverse ruling won’t dislodge tariffs from the center of his economic agenda, Bloomberg reports.
Senior officials at the Commerce Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative have been studying backup mechanisms — including Section 301 and Section 122 of the Trade Act — that would allow the president to swiftly reimpose duties should the Court invalidate his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Each alternative, however, carries constraints, slower timelines, or fresh legal risks.
The White House is still hopeful that the justices will uphold Trump’s expansive, emergency-based tariff authority. But officials acknowledge that recent oral arguments were not promising and that planning for a negative outcome is well underway. One senior official put it bluntly: tariffs “will remain a core part” of Trump’s economic strategy regardless of how the Court rules.
Trump himself echoed that stance this week, saying, “We always find ways… we find ways,” when asked about preparations.
A complex web of alternatives. If IEEPA tariffs are invalidated, the administration could pivot to Section 301 — which normally requires a detailed investigation — or to Section 122, which allows up to 15% tariffs but for only 150 days. Officials are also exploring the boundaries of Section 232 steel and aluminum authorities, which have steadily expanded to cover more finished goods, and even the little-used Section 338, a tool that has never been tested in modern trade litigation.
Those options would likely force the administration into novel legal territory: whether Section 122 tariffs could be repeatedly reset, whether duties could be applied retroactively, or how quickly new probes could be launched to replace the global, country-based structure of IEEPA tariffs.
Even in a worst-case scenario, Trump advisers expect to act immediately. “They’re going to basically piece it all back together,” said Scott Lincicome of the Cato Institute.
The stakes: $88 Billion and global fallout. More than half of the effective 14.4% tariff rate on U.S. imports now stems from IEEPA actions, according to Bloomberg Economics. If those duties are struck down, the administration could be forced to refund more than $88 billion already collected — a logistical and political nightmare.
International partners are watching closely. Trump’s wide-ranging duties — including the reciprocal tariffs, China fentanyl-related levies, and country-specific actions like the tariff imposed on Brazil — have all relied on IEEPA. A ruling against the administration would throw trade relationships, supply chains, and ongoing negotiations into fresh uncertainty.
Administration confidence, but contingency plans continue. White House spokesman Kush Desai said Trump acted lawfully and remains “confident in ultimate victory,” even as the administration works on “new ways” to maintain its trade posture. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and other senior advisers have publicly acknowledged that Section 301 and Section 122 are the leading backup options.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair said he sees at least “a 50-50 chance” of success at the Court — but confirmed that, if necessary, the same tariffs will be reimposed “through a different means.”
While the Supreme Court has offered no timeline, a decision could arrive at any point. A ruling against IEEPA would trigger immediate economic and diplomatic turbulence — and a rapid, aggressive White House effort to rebuild the tariff system from the ground up.
| HPAI/BIRD FLU |
— Washington State records first human H5N5 bird flu death
Older adult with backyard flock succumbs to world’s first confirmed H5N5 case; public risk remains low
A Washington State resident from Grays Harbor County has died after contracting H5N5 avian influenza, marking the first confirmed human case of this bird-flu variant worldwide, according to the state health department and Reuters.
The individual, an older adult with underlying health issues, owned a backyard flock of mixed domestic birds. Testing detected avian influenza in the flock’s environment, suggesting exposure likely came from domestic poultry or wild birds.
Health officials emphasized that the broader public risk remains low. No close contacts of the patient have tested positive, and authorities say there is no evidence of person-to-person transmission. Those who interacted with the flock or the surrounding environment are being monitored for symptoms as a precaution.
