Argentina Expects U.S. Trade Deal “Soon,” Officials Say
How China armed itself for the trade war | Screwworm update | Trump fast-tracks major Idaho phosphate mine
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 17
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 17
Today’s Updates:
WEEK IN REVIEW: MARKETS, POLITICS, AND GLOBAL TENSIONS
— Volatility returns to Wall Street
— Business roundup
— Trump’s diplomatic gamble on Ukraine
— Trade policy shift: quiet tariff tweaks
— President Trump appeared to backtrack on China-focused tariffs
— Middle East cease-fire strains
— Gold, silver surge despite sharp Friday pullback
— Could gov’t shutdown drag stretch to Thanksgiving?
— Thune urges USDA to reopen FSA offices and resume marketing loans
— Cultural spotlight: Ohtani’s historic game
— Public mood: “No Kings” rally expands
— ADM offers soybean program as farmers hold back sales
— U.S. ag markets: grain prices advanced but cattle futures suffered a sharp reversal
HEADLINES
— Argentina expects U.S. trade deal “soon,” officials say
— How China armed itself for the trade war
— U.S./China talks planned as trump softens tariff rhetoric
— When could the shutdown end? Five key dates to watch
— Arrington cites CBO warning that shutdown is hurting the U.S. economy
— Trump administration fast-tracks major Idaho phosphate mine
FINANCIAL MARKETS
• Equities Friday and weekly change
• Key financial reports to watch — Week of Oct. 20
• Sen. Warren demands Trump administration release jobs data before Fed meeting
AG MARKETS
• Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change
NEW WORLD SCREWWORM
• USDA releases new playbook to combat potential screwworm outbreak
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
• Oil prices end week deeply lower despite modest Friday rebound
• Brazil to push global “sustainable fuel” expansion at COP30, leak reveals
TRADE POLICY
• How China encouraged Brazil to grow more soybeans to take on the U.S.
CHINA
• China’s 15th five-year plan to take shape amid slowing growth
WEATHER
• NWS outlook: heavy rain and severe thunderstorms expected across multiple regions
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Oct. 18, 2025
—Week in review: markets, politics, and global tensions •Volatility returns to Wall StreetWall Street’s “fear gauge,” the VIX, hit its highest midday level since April as market volatility surged. Stocks swung sharply after Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp disclosed limited exposure to alleged borrower fraud. Though financial losses were small, the revelations unsettled investors already wary of cracks in the credit cycle. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon summed up the sentiment, warning: “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” The episode deepened concern that years of easy credit may now be exposing hidden financial vulnerabilities. • Business roundup The U.S. Chamber of Commerce sued the Trump administration over the new $100,000 fee for H-1B visas. Big banks reported strong results for the third quarter. OpenAI will design chips with Broadcom. And the carmaker Stellantis said it would invest $13 billion to bolster its manufacturing in the U.S. • Trump’s diplomatic gamble on UkrainePresident Donald Trump is again relying on personal diplomacy to try to end the Ukraine war, with a planned summit aimed at breaking the deadlock with a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest, Hungary. Some critics warn the effort could give Russia time to consolidate its battlefield gains. Trump’s advisers say this time the administration is backing up leader-to-leader talks with greater diplomatic leverage than during his August meeting with Putin. The Washington Post reported that Putin demanded Ukraine surrender key territory in his call with Trump as a condition for ending the war. That suggests he is not backing away from past demands that have left the conflict in a stalemate, despite Trump’s optimism about securing a deal. Trump reportedly said he wants both sides to stop where they are. Zelenskyy signaled openness to such a ceasefire as a starting point to talks. Zelenskyy has made clear his chief aim is to secure better defenses for Ukraine amid Russia’s constant aerial bombardments of civilian targets like cities, energy infrastructure and hospitals, and his big-ticket item is the American Tomahawk missile, which Trump to date has refused to send. • Trade policy shift: quiet tariff tweaksThe Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is quietly softening elements of its own tariff program, a key pillar of the president’s economic strategy. Adjustments are said to focus on targeted tariff relief for select industries, signaling a more flexible approach amid rising inflation pressures. Trump in recent weeks has exempted dozens of products from his so-called reciprocal tariffs and offered to carve out hundreds more goods from farm products to airplane parts when countries strike trade deals with the United States.The offer to exempt more products from tariffs reflects a growing sentiment among administration officials that the U.S. should lower levies on goods that it doesn’t domestically produce, say people familiar with administration planning. On Friday, Trump unveiled his latest action under Section 232, imposing 25% tariffs on trucks and truck parts, as well as 10% tariffs on buses, effective Nov. 1. Trump also expanded a tariff relief program for automakers, allowing them to apply for credits to partially offset the cost of tariffs on car and truck parts until 2030, instead of 2027. The September order also allows new authority to the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative’s office to grant tariff exemptions themselves, without Trump himself issuing executive orders mandating the new carve-outs. •President Trump appeared to backtrack on China-focused tariffsThe president told Fox Business Network that his latest threat of 100% tariffs on China was “not sustainable,” comments that soothed investors’ concerns. Still, negotiations between the nations appear deadlocked as a November deadline looms to prevent bruising tariffs from going into effect. All eyes will be on a potential meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping of China later this month in South Korea. •Middle East cease-fire strainsIn the Gaza Strip, Israel has carried out several strikes even amid a declared cease-fire, raising doubts about the durability of the truce and adding stress to already fragile regional diplomacy. • Gold, Silver surge despite sharp Friday pullbackHaven demand continues to drive yearlong metals rally as tariffs and inflation fears ripple through markets. Gold and silver extended their blistering rallies this week, even after a sharp selloff on Friday, as renewed U.S./China trade tensions sent investors back into safe-haven assets. Silver plunged more than 6% Friday — its steepest fall in six months — after touching a record high near $54.50 an ounce, while gold remains up over 60% for the year, buoyed by heavy central-bank buying and strong inflows into bullion-backed ETFs. In China, credit growth weakened, weighed down by sluggish loan demand and rising government bond sales. Meanwhile, in the United States, private inflation gauges signaled that new tariffs were pushing prices higher, even as official data remain delayed by the ongoing government shutdown. • Could gov’t shutdown drag stretch to Thanksgiving?In Washington, speculation is growing that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown could extend into late November, with few visible signs of progress toward reopening federal agencies. (See related item below for more on possible end dates.) •Thune urges USDA to reopen FSA offices and resume marketing loans during shutdownSenate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D) is urging USDA to reopen its Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices and allow farmers to access marketing-assistance loans and other services during the government shutdown. Thousands of FSA-service centers remain closed, which has prevented farmers from signing up for commodity-program payments and marketing assistance loans. Thune specifically called for allowing marketing assistance loans (which provide farm operators liquidity) to begin again. His push is tied to current harvest conditions and tight cash-flow needs for farmers. USDA Secretary Rollins confirmed USDA will announce new trade and export initiatives once operations resume but acknowledged that “farmers need relief now.” The Trump administration is hoping to find other international customers for U.S. soybeans, pushing other top buyers like the EU, Mexico and Indonesia to buy more and trying out untested markets such as India, Vietnam and Nigeria. • Cultural spotlight: Ohtani’s historic gameOn a lighter note, Shohei Ohtani delivered what some are calling the greatest game in baseball history — three home runs and six-plus scoreless innings — leading the Los Angeles Dodgers to clinch the National League pennant. • Public mood: “No Kings” rally expandsMillions joined a second “No Kings” rally across the U.S. on Saturday, signaling continued public engagement with the populist movement’s anti-corruption and anti-elitism themes. •ADM offers soybean program as farmers hold back salesProcessors are scrambling to secure supplies amid unusually slow farmer selling. That is why ADM is taking an unconventional step to attract soybeans, Reuters reports, allowing farmers to deliver soybeans to its facilities without setting a sale price and without incurring storage fees. The move reflects processors’ growing difficulty sourcing soybeans as many producers choose to store their crops rather than sell at current prices. Historically, about half of harvested soybeans are marketed soon after harvest, but this year only around 20% have been sold. The tight farmer selling pace has led to strengthening basis levels across the Midwest as processors and elevators compete for limited supplies. ADM could have just raised its cash bids to attract soybeans, but doing so would have very different financial and market implications than offering free deferred pricing (DP). By offering free DP, ADM takes ownership of soybeans immediately — ensuring supply flows into its Decatur processing hub. However, it doesn’t have to pay farmers yet, saving cash flow. This lets ADM fill its pipeline now, even while futures markets and cash bids remain weak. Raising bids outright would require immediate cash outlays and set new market price benchmarks across the region. This helps ADM protect crush margins while quietly improving throughput. Many farmers believe soybean prices will rise this winter or next spring. ADM avoids having to carry high-priced inventory if futures weaken or crush margins narrow. Instead, it holds physical beans while marking them at future market value when farmers finally price. That’s a risk transfer from ADM to the farmer — ADM holds beans, but the price risk stays with the grower. Bottom line: ADM’s Decatur complex — one of the world’s largest soybean crushers — needs continuous input for meal and oil production. With farmer selling tight and on-farm storage high, ADM is ensuring logistical flow without inflating its procurement cost base.•U.S. ag markets: grain prices advanced but cattle futures suffered a sharp reversal Beef prices and cattle market turmoilCattle futures plunged after President Donald Trump said his administration had “worked our magic” on a plan to bring down beef prices — remarks that traders took as a signal of potential government intervention or trade measures. The sell-off triggered steep losses in live and feeder cattle contracts, prompting the CME Group to announce expanded daily trading limits beginning Monday. The decline capped a volatile week for livestock markets, where beef prices have remained stubbornly high despite broader food inflation easing. Link to special report for details. Corn and soybeans rise on tight basis, lower yield talkGrain markets moved in the opposite direction. Corn and soybeans both rallied through the week, buoyed by persistent talk across farm media of lower-than-expected yields as harvest progresses. The consensus now points to yields running below the USDA’s latest estimates, keeping speculative and commercial buying active. Meanwhile, soy prices also rose after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Thursday that the U.S. is in talks with some South American nations over the possibility of doing “some crushing there for our soybeans and others.” Rollins said she spoke with two countries that are “interested in purchasing,” but she didn’t specify which nations or which products they’d purchase. Even with combines rolling across the Midwest, both cash corn and soybean basis levels have tightened — a sign that end users and exporters are eager to secure supplies amid cautious farmer selling. Corn futures posted their third straight weekly gain, while soybeans closed near four-week highs as crushers and exporters bid aggressively for spot supplies. Outlook:The coming week’s trade will hinge on follow-through farmer selling, updated crop reports, and whether the White House offers more details on its “beef price” initiative. Expanded cattle trading limits could also add fresh volatility to livestock markets. —Argentina expects U.S. trade deal “soon,” officials sayAmbassador Alec Oxenford, Economy Minister Luis Caputo, and President Javier Milei all signal an imminent agreement after White House meeting Argentina’s top officials say a trade deal with the United States is imminent following President Javier Milei’s White House meeting with President Donald Trump earlier this week. Argentine Ambassador to Washington Alejandro ‘Alec’ Oxenford told Inside U.S. Trade that “a very important trade arrangement between the U.S. and Argentina could soon be announced.” He added, “I signed a confidentiality agreement, but I can say that this topic was discussed in detail at the White House. We’re going to have some very good news.” Meanwhile, speaking in a radio interview, Oxenford said the two nations would sign a trade agreement but that he was not allowed to discuss details. “We could have news very soon. I’ve signed a confidentiality agreement, but I can say it’s extremely important,” said Oxenford. “I can’t comment further. There will be developments shortly,” promised the diplomat, who also described the deal as the culmination of “a very significant collective effort in Buenos Aires and Washington, marking a before and after in cooperation between the two countries.” Deregulation & State Transformation Minister Federico Sturzenegger said recently that “we are going to have a rather unprecedented trade agreement within the United States, and that agreement will allow certain sectors of our economy to have privileged access to the North American market. The United States is Argentina’s third-largest trading partner at present, behind Brazil and China. Foreign Minister Gerardo Werthein echoed the optimism, saying negotiations were “almost finished” and that a final announcement could come “in the coming days.” Economy Minister Luis Caputo called the discussions “fantastic,” saying, “There was significant progress, and it’s good news for Argentina. It was truly better than we expected, both in substance and in form.” According to Inside U.S. Trade, Argentine officials see the agreement as a milestone that could mark “the beginning of trade openness between the two countries.” Deregulation Minister Federico Sturzenegger said the deal would be “quite unprecedented” for the U.S., granting Argentina “relatively privileged access” for certain sectors. Currently, domestic products face a base tariff rate of 10% since last April, although specific levies remain, with 50% tariffs applied to aluminum and steel. National Security Minister Patricia Bullrich said Thursday that Argentina will sign an agreement with the FBI to cooperate on counter-terrorism operations. The agreement will include access to the National Counter-terrorism Centre (CNA), which will function as a “hotline” to prevent possible attacks. At the White House, President Trump said he hoped to “bolster U.S./Argentina trade,” noting that prior trade ties had “disappeared due to Democratic leadership that didn’t know what they were doing.” He added, “We’ll be trading with Argentina, and it’ll be helpful to them and good for us also.” The two countries’ trade relationship has deepened amid a $20 billion U.S./Argentina currency swap agreement (and another $20 billion private transaction) and Argentina’s push for reciprocal market access following Washington’s new baseline 10% import tariff. Oxenford criticized the accredited press corps at the White House, accusing them of taking Trump’s remarks out of context after media reports suggested that U.S. financial support for Argentina is dependent on Milei’s performance in the Oct. 26 midterm elections. “The support was total, explicit, and solid,” said the envoy, adding: “It was very much aligned with a shared vision. I was there from start to finish, and it’s clear to me the statement was completely taken out of context… Journalists tend to exaggerate and take quotes out of context,” he said. Milei’s party is trying to boost its representation in Congress where it only holds about 15% of seats. However, Trump on warned he could sever struggling Argentina’s financial lifeline if his libertarian ally Milei loses crucial legislative elections later this month. “If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina,” Trump said as Milei visited the White House to seek the Republican’s political and economic support. “I’m with this man because his philosophy is correct. And he may win and he may not win – I think he’s going to win. And if he wins, we are staying with him, and if he doesn’t win, we are gone.” Of note: The U.S. Treasury bought more Argentine pesos Friday than it had in any other session, traders estimated, as the currency continued to lose value despite American support. Traders estimated that Secretary Scott Bessent’s Treasury sold more than $200 million during the trading session Friday, with roughly half coming in the final 10 minutes. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent disclosed earlier that the U.S. had also bought pesos Thursday in Argentina’s parallel exchange rate known by investors as the “blue chip swap, which allows an investor to buy a foreign asset, usually in a country with a depreciated currency, then sell it abroad at a higher price. “Treasury is monitoring all markets, and we have the capacity to act with flexibility and with force to stabilize Argentina,” Bessent wrote on X Friday morning. The peso’s slide accelerated Friday, tumbling as much as 5.2 percent intraday to 1,475 per dollar before closing around 1,450. UK-based research firm Capital Economics said that a temporary boost for the peso thanks to the US intervention “doesn’t change the fact that the peso is substantially misaligned” — overvalued by an estimated 30%. The International Monetary Fund has said it is collaborating with Argentina and the U.S. to “support stability and growth” but underscored that Buenos Aires needs to accumulate reserves. In April, the IMF had approved a new loan of $20 billion for Argentina, already its biggest debtor. Argentina exported $9 billion worth of goods to the U.S. in 2024, down from a record $12.7 billion in 2022, according to U.S. Census data. Milei said he and Trump discussed “how to open up the American market to Argentine products” and promised swift progress toward formalizing the deal.—How China armed itself for the trade warBeijing’s high-risk approach to its economic confrontation with Washington China’s response to President Donald Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs — levies as high as 145% on Chinese imports and 125% on U.S. goods — was not improvised. In Foreign Affairs (link), Zongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that Beijing “has spent years preparing for confrontation,” executing a long-calibrated strategy to cushion its economy and blunt U.S. pressure. Liu writes that “the best way to understand the current standoff with China is as the product of faulty assumptions and missteps on both sides.” Washington misread China’s resilience, while Beijing “proved more adept at signaling defiance than at shaping outcomes.” Faulty assumptions and Trump’s gamble. According to Liu, key Trump advisers wrongly assumed that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would rush to the negotiating table to avoid domestic unrest. Instead, Beijing doubled down on its defiance. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that China was in a “severe recession, if not depression” overstated the weakness of China’s economy, she notes, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s boast that “Donald Trump is bringing growth to America” fed overconfidence that tariffs would force a breakthrough. This, Liu writes, “has backfired, greatly diminishing the possibility of direct negotiations in which China might be willing to offer meaningful concessions.” Beijing, she adds, is not cowed — it is “if necessary, ready to decouple from the United States.” Xi’s long game. Xi Jinping’s political message, rooted in his upbringing during the Cultural Revolution, emphasizes chi-ku — “eating bitterness.” Liu observes that Trump’s confrontational policies have “paradoxically reinforced Xi’s narrative,” giving the Communist Party a convenient external villain and justification for its campaign of self-reliance. China’s leadership has used the moment to restore confidence in domestic entrepreneurs such as Jack Ma, push for supply chain resilience, and expand the use of renminbi-based payment systems to reduce exposure to U.S. sanctions. New laws — the Anti–Foreign Sanctions Law, Export Control Law, and anti-espionage rules — form a legal shield for retaliation, placing multinational firms “in an impossible bind.” Building global resilience. Liu highlights that Beijing has pursued regional trade diplomacy to offset U.S. decoupling. China has accelerated talks with Gulf Cooperation Council states, resumed trilateral dialogues with Japan and South Korea, and strengthened ties with Vietnam and other Southeast Asian neighbors. The long game. Although high tariffs will erode access to the U.S. market, Liu concludes that China’s economy is “better positioned than ever to endure the pain.” Xi’s measure of success, she argues, is not GDP growth but “scientific and technological development.” Looking Ahead: Liu suggests Trump’s “America First” strategy could be recalibrated. Rather than “maximum pressure,” she recommends structuring the trade deficit to favor U.S. strengths — exporting raw materials and industrial inputs while keeping high-end manufacturing “close to balanced.” This could allow both sides to claim victories while reducing systemic risk. Still, Liu warns that “even sustained tariffs won’t stop China’s global commercial expansion.” Chinese firms, backed by state incentives and overcapacity, will continue seeking markets abroad. For Trump, the challenge is not just winning the trade war, but ensuring that “America’s economic might remains the world’s most dependable anchor.” —U.S./China talks planned as Trump softens tariff rhetoricBessent and He Lifeng to meet in Malaysia ahead of Trump/Xi summit The United States and China will resume trade negotiations next week, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng set to meet in Malaysia to ease tensions and prepare for a Trump/Xi meeting later this month. Bessent said he and He held a “frank and detailed” virtual discussion Friday, joined by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and confirmed plans for in-person talks. China’s Xinhua News Agency described the dialogue as “frank, in-depth, and constructive.” President Donald Trump, who recently labeled 100% tariffs on Chinese goods “not sustainable,” expressed optimism that negotiations could “defuse the crisis” and reaffirmed that his meeting with President Xi Jinping would proceed on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea. The shift in tone marks a de-escalation after weeks of tension over China’s rare-earth export controls and Trump’s tariff threats. The upcoming Malaysia talks will be the fifth round of high-level negotiations between Bessent and He this year, following sessions in Madrid, Stockholm, London, and Geneva. Quote of note: “We hope that China will show the respect that we have shown them,” Bessent said. “I am confident that President Trump, because of his relationship with President Xi, will be able to get things back on a good course.” —When could the shutdown end? Five key dates to watchUpcoming pay deadlines, health-care enrollment, and Thanksgiving travel disruptions could finally push Congress to strike a deal Solution could be weeks away. As The Hill’s Al Weaver reports, the ongoing government shutdown — now among the three longest in U.S. history — shows few signs of ending soon. Lawmakers concede that it could drag on for weeks, with several pressure points looming that could force action on Capitol Hill. “It’s a factor,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), referring to the financial strain on furloughed federal workers. “That is not the same as getting your paycheck on the day you’re entitled to it, obviously, and people have tuition to pay and rent and all of that.” Below are five key dates The Hill details could determine when — and how — the shutdown finally ends. Oct. 24 — Missed Paychecks for Federal WorkersRoughly 2 million federal employees are set to miss their first full paycheck on Oct. 24. The event could sharply raise pressure on Congress to act. While a 2019 law guarantees back pay, the White House budget office has hinted that this may not apply this time.A “sick-out” by air traffic controllers — similar to the 2019 shutdown — could cripple air travel and force a deal. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said he will move a bill from Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) to pay “excepted” employees, though furloughed workers would remain unpaid. Oct. 31 — Next Military PaycheckThe Trump administration tapped $8 billion in unused funds to cover the Oct. 15 pay for 1.3 million service members, but officials doubt they can repeat that on Halloween. “That option is not going to be available in two weeks,” warned House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.). Thune said the Senate will “give them a chance to pay the military next week,” though passage remains uncertain. Oct. 31 & Nov. 5 — Congressional Staff PaySenate staffers will miss their first full paycheck Oct. 20, with another due Nov. 5, while House aides — paid monthly — may not see a paycheck until after Thanksgiving. One Democratic aide told The Hill, “Rent is due on the first. Literally nobody else does this.” Nov. 1 — ObamaCare Open EnrollmentThis date may represent the political fulcrum of the standoff. Democrats are using the start of open enrollment to press Republicans on renewing enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies before Americans shop for 2026 plans. “The American people are facing one of the most devastating crises they have faced in terms of cost,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), accusing Republicans of “changing their stories and changing their arguments.”Republicans hope to outlast the pressure, arguing Democrats’ leverage will fade after Nov. 1. Nov. 21 — Thanksgiving Week Travel CrunchThe week of Thanksgiving looms as a potential breaking point. If the shutdown continues, TSA shortages and unpaid air-traffic controllers could disrupt one of the busiest travel periods of the year. “If the Democrats are irresponsible enough to be trying to force air-traffic controllers and TSA to work without paychecks through Thanksgiving, the traveling public would pay the price,” warned Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.). Lawmakers still recall the 2019 chaos that helped end the last record-long shutdown — and this holiday crunch may bring history full circle. Outlook: While few see a breakthrough before late October, pressure from missed paychecks, military funding strains, and health-care deadlines could force movement by early November. But as Cruz put it, “At some point, sanity will return… but damned if I know when.” —Arrington cites CBO warning that shutdown is hurting the U.S. economyBudget Chairman says Democrats’ spending demands are prolonging economic harm House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Tex.) released a statement citing a new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) letter warning that the ongoing government shutdown is already having measurable negative effects on the economy. “The nonpartisan, independent Congressional Budget Office just confirmed the Democrat shutdown is increasing unemployment, reducing consumer spending, diminishing private-sector income, and stifling overall economic growth,” Arrington said. “Leader Schumer (D-N.Y.) and the Democrats are playing partisan games at the expense of the American people’s livelihoods.” Arrington blamed Democrats for rejecting a House-passed continuing resolution and accused them of “holding our troops and vulnerable Americans hostage for 17 days” while insisting on “$1.5 trillion in new spending” tied to what he called “woke and wasteful policies.” The CBO’s letter, issued in response to Arrington’s inquiry, stated that the longer the shutdown continues, the more pronounced and lasting the economic harm will be. Specifically, the agency warned that:• Unemployment will rise temporarily as federal operations remain shuttered.• Consumer spending and private-sector income will fall until government paychecks and services resume.• Real GDP will take a temporary hit.• Delayed economic data could leave the Federal Reserve without critical input for monetary policy.• Businesses dependent on federal permits or loans may face disruptions.• The tourism and travel sectors will suffer measurable losses. Arrington concluded by urging Democrats to “put the country first” and end the shutdown. —Trump administration fast-tracks major Idaho phosphate mineProject approval underscores White House push to expand domestic mineral production despite shutdown A major phosphate mine in southeast Idaho has cleared its final federal permitting hurdle, marking a significant milestone for the Trump administration’s domestic mining agenda. The Caldwell Canyon Mine, operated by Bayer AG subsidiary P4 Production, will extract phosphate ore from federal and state leases in Caribou County. The mine’s approval follows President Donald Trump’s March executive order calling for accelerated U.S. mineral development. “Even during a government shutdown, the Permitting Council is committed to advancing President Trump’s agenda and transforming the way the federal government permits mining in America,” said Emily Domenech, the council’s executive director. The project will supply phosphorus for fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, animal feed, detergents, and electronics, strengthening the U.S. position as one of the world’s top phosphate producers behind China and Morocco. Bayer has touted the mine as “the world’s most environmentally advanced and sustainable source of phosphorus,” with operations expected to sustain its nearby Soda Springs plant for up to 40 years. P4 previously settled litigation with environmental groups in 2024, agreeing to fund over $7.8 million in sage grouse habitat restoration, conservation, and land protection. The Center for Biological Diversity said the company has so far complied with all terms and that further legal action is unlikely. The mine’s next step is obtaining a formal Notice to Proceed from the Bureau of Land Management. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities Friday and weekly change:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Oct. | Point Difference from Oct. | % Difference from Oct. | Weekly Change |
| Dow | 46,190.61 | +238.37 | +0.52% | +1.56% |
| Nasdaq | 22,679.97 | +117.44 | +0.52% | +2.14% |
| S&P 500 | 6,664.01 | +34.94 | +0.53% | +1.70% |
—Key financial reports to watch — Week of Oct. 20
Global earnings and economic data will test investor sentiment as growth, inflation, and corporate performance come into sharper focus.
Monday, Oct. 20
• China GDP and September data: Beijing releases third-quarter GDP figures following 5.2% growth in Q2. Economists expect a slowdown amid weaker factory output and softer consumer spending. Retail sales and industrial production data for September will provide further clues on momentum.
Tuesday, Oct. 21
• Netflix earnings: The streaming giant reports Q3 results, with speculation it has secured rights to broadcast MLB’s 2026 season opener between the Yankees and Giants.
•UniCredit and European banking moves: UniCredit reports results after its blocked attempt to acquire Banco BPM. It remains the largest shareholder in Germany’s Commerzbank, which recently launched a buyback to bolster independence.
•Defense sector earnings: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and RTX release results. Lockheed’s shares fell sharply in July after a major profit drop; investors will look for signs of recovery.
• GM results: General Motors reports after an 8% rise in U.S. sales last quarter and triple-digit growth in EV sales ahead of expiring tax credits. Ford follows later in the week.
Wednesday, Oct. 22
• Tesla earnings: Tesla posts Q3 results after record deliveries of 497,000 vehicles, up 29% from Q2. Despite sales gains, its stock has slid amid investor uncertainty about margins and demand.
Thursday, Oct. 23
•Railroad megamerger in focus: Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific release earnings as regulators review their proposed merger to form the first U.S. coast-to-coast freight rail operator. President Trump has expressed support, calling it a “good deal.”
• Gold rally boosts miners: Newmont, the world’s top gold producer, reports results as gold prices surge 60% year-to-date — the metal’s strongest run since 1979.
Friday, Oct. 24
•Japan inflation data: Tokyo releases September CPI. Inflation has eased to 2.7%, but the Bank of Japan’s upcoming rate decision will hinge on whether wage growth justifies tightening.
•U.S. CPI report: The Bureau of Labor Statistics rescheduled the Sept. 2025 CPI release to at 8:30 a.m. ET, a one-off exception during the shutdown so SSA can finalize the COLA.
—Warren demands Trump administration release jobs data before Fed meeting
Senator says Americans “deserve better than a Fed operating with partial data” as shutdown delays key reports
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, urged the Trump administration to release the September Employment Situation report before the Federal Reserve meets Oct. 28-29 to decide on monetary policy.
In a letter (link) to OMB Director Russell Vought and U.S. Chief Statistician Mark Calabria, Warren warned that withholding the data could leave the Fed “operating with partial data when making decisions that directly impact [Americans’] wallets.”
Warren noted that the administration had recalled furloughed Bureau of Labor Statistics staff to produce the September CPI report, arguing there was “no operational reason” the agency couldn’t also release the jobs report. She cited the legal requirement that the BLS publish employment data “at least once each month.”
“Without September jobs data,” Warren wrote, “FOMC members will be forced to make consequential monetary policy decisions based on incomplete information.” She added that transparent, timely access to accurate data was essential to the functioning of the economy, concluding: “The American people, financial markets, policymakers, and the Federal Reserve all depend on transparent, timely access to accurate economic data… The Trump Administration must act accordingly.”
Of note: The September jobs report is already overdue. It will appear three working days after the shutdown eventually ends, followed three weeks later by the Oct. jobs report. Nov. jobs data will likely be reported one week later than normal, too, according to sources.
| AG MARKETS |
—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Oct. 17 | Change from Oct. 16 | Weekly Change |
| Corn | Dec | $4.22 1/2 | +3/4¢ | +9 1/2¢ |
| Soybeans | Nov | $10.19 1/2 | +8 3/4¢ | +12 3/4¢ |
| Soybean Meal | Dec | $281.00 | +$4.10 | +$6.00 |
| Soybean Oil | Dec | 51.13¢ | +26 pts | +116 pts |
| SRW Wheat | Dec | $5.03 3/4 | +1 1/4¢ | +5 1/4¢ |
| HRW Wheat | Dec | $4.91 1/2 | +2 3/4¢ | +8 1/2¢ |
| Spring Wheat | Dec | $5.48 1/2 | -1¢ | -3 1/4¢ |
| Cotton | Dec | 64.28¢ | +55 pts | +44 pts |
| Live Cattle | Dec | $241.825 | -$6.05 | -$0.70 |
| Feeder Cattle | Nov | $371.70 | -$9.25 | -$4.20 |
| Lean Hogs | Dec | $82.375 | -22 1/2¢ | -$1.65 |
| NEW WORLD SCREWWORM |
—USDA releases new playbook to combat potential screwworm outbreak
Agency outlines national response strategy as it works with Mexico to prevent pest’s northward spread
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) unveiled its New World Screwworm (NWS) Response Playbook (link), a detailed guide for federal, state, and local responders in the event of a U.S. detection. The document emphasizes coordination, rapid communication, and science-based strategies to contain and eradicate any outbreak. “USDA continues to execute our five-pronged plan (link) to keep NWS out of the United States,” said USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, adding that the agency is “working with Mexico to stop the pest from continuing to spread further north” while ensuring domestic readiness.
The playbook provides frameworks for managing infested premises, preventing new infestations, coordinating surveillance in livestock and wildlife, and maintaining continuity of business. It was developed with input from state animal health officials, veterinarians, and industry partners.
APHIS has posted the draft playbook to its Foreign Animal Disease Preparedness and Response website (link) and will continue gathering feedback to refine its operational use. Residents near the southern border are urged to inspect pets and livestock for screwworm signs — such as draining wounds, larvae, or eggs — and report any suspected cases immediately.
Learn more about NWS on the APHIS website.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices end week deeply lower despite modest Friday rebound
Oversupply fears and record U.S. output outweigh easing geopolitical tensions
Oil prices inched up Friday but ended the week sharply lower, with Brent crude down 8.1% — its steepest weekly decline in over three months — and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) off 7.4%. Brent settled 23¢ higher at $61.29 a barrel, while WTI added 8¢ to $57.54.
Analysts said easing global tensions, including a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and a planned Trump/Putin meeting in Hungary, temporarily calmed markets.
Still, the International Energy Agency’s warning of a looming 2026 oil surplus and renewed U.S./China trade strains fueled bears’ confidence.
Adding to the bearish tone, U.S. data showed crude inventories climbed 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million, while production hit a record 13.64 million barrels per day. A fire at BP’s Whiting, Indiana, refinery briefly spiked Great Lakes gasoline prices but had little national effect.
—Brazil to push global “sustainable fuel” expansion at COP30, leak reveals
Guardian leak shows Brazil’s draft proposal to quadruple biofuel use faces strong backlash from environmental groups
According to an exclusive report by The Guardian’s Fiona Harvey and Jonathan Watts, Brazil is preparing to call on world leaders at next month’s COP30 climate summit in Belém to quadruple the global use of “sustainable fuels” — primarily biofuels, biogas, and hydrogen — compared with 2024 levels. The leaked draft pledge, seen by The Guardian, outlines an ambitious target that would significantly boost the use of fuels derived from organic matter such as sugar cane and soy.
Brazil, the world’s second-largest ethanol producer, argues that biofuels can displace fossil fuels and deliver climate benefits. However, environmental experts warn the opposite may occur. The Guardian cited a new study by the Transport and Environment (T&E) think tank showing that “biofuels are responsible globally for 16% more CO₂ emissions than the fossil fuels they replace due to the indirect impacts of farming and deforestation.”
The report further warned that by 2030, land equivalent to the size of France could be required for biofuel crops, and that “a fifth of vegetable oil is used for cars rather than food.” T&E’s Cian Delaney cautioned that “this pledge involves doubling the world’s supply of biofuels. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where this doesn’t require more land clearance … this will be devastating for the climate, ecosystems and food security.”
Critics say Brazil’s framing of biofuels as “sustainable” risks undermining renewable energy goals. Andreas Sieber of 350.org told The Guardian, “So-called ‘sustainable fuels’ must never deflect from the central task: transitioning away from fossil fuels and scaling up renewables. These fuels often exaggerate their climate benefits, worsen food insecurity, and drive biodiversity loss through monocultures of corn, soy and sugarcane.”
The leaked agenda for the leaders’ summit, scheduled for Nov. 6–7 ahead of COP30’s opening on Nov. 10, also indicates sessions on forests, debt forgiveness for poor nations, and a “Tropical Forests Forever Facility” seeking $125 billion to preserve standing forests. Brazil’s Environment Minister Marina Silva has reportedly pushed to keep fossil fuel transition discussions on the table despite Saudi opposition.
In response to The Guardian’s reporting, Brazil’s foreign affairs ministry clarified that the proposal is “a global goal… based on an IEA report released this week” and that the fuels included must “have low-GHG intensity over their lifecycle” and meet biodiversity and social safeguards.
| TRADE POLICY |
—How China encouraged Brazil to grow more soybeans to take on the U.S.
Trump’s statement on halting UCO imports from Beijing unlikely to affect Xi’s strategy
China’s soybean strategy — years in the making — is showing results, as Beijing has entirely halted U.S. soybean purchases this season while paying premiums for Brazilian beans. According to The Hindu Businessline (link), analysts say this was no accident: “China has assiduously prepared to snub U.S. soybeans in favor of Brazil. Trump’s second term has provided a perfect opportunity,” one export inspection executive told the paper.
China’s long-term game plan. The report details how China began preparing to diversify away from U.S. soybeans as early as 2018, when President Trump’s first-term tariffs on Chinese goods triggered retaliation. Since then, Beijing has worked to make Brazil its top supplier, not just through trade deals but through infrastructure investment.
“China did a few things to help Brazil increase its soybean exports. First, it began to improve Brazil’s infrastructure. Second, it improved its port facilities,” said one executive quoted in the article.
Chinese state-backed COFCO is investing $285 million in a new agricultural terminal at the Port of Santos, while other Chinese firms are expanding the Port of São Luís. As a result, shipping times have halved—from 120 days to just 60—making Brazil’s supply chain far more efficient.
Brazil’s output surges, U.S. exports slide. Brazil’s soybean output has surged from 95.7 million tonnes (mt) in 2015–16 to an estimated record 175 mt in 2025–26, while U.S. production stagnated near 116–117 mt. Meanwhile, U.S. exports have dropped from a peak of 61.66 mt in 2020–21 to a projected six-year low of 45.86 mt this season. Brazil’s exports are projected to reach 112 mt this year.
U.S. farmers frustrated. Iowa Soybean Association officials expressed deep frustration over China’s snub. CEO Kirk Leeds said, “They (Chinese buyers) have purchased zero U.S. soybeans for delivery. We continue to hope and anticipate that leaders of China and the U.S. will reach a trade agreement.” Grant Kimberly, the group’s executive director, called the halt “a political choice,” adding that farmers face “rising input costs, falling prices, and limited market access.”
Beijing expands soy oil exports. Despite Trump’s threat to block imports of Chinese used cooking oil (UCO), analysts say Beijing will easily find other buyers. China exported over 120,000 tonnes of soy oil to India in July 2025 at discounted prices and remains the world’s largest producer — expected to make 20.5 mt this season. “Washington’s ban could simply divert flows to other markets for biofuel,” the report notes.
Summary: Beijing’s long-term push to build up Brazil’s soybean sector — through billions in infrastructure and strategic trade realignments — has insulated it from U.S. leverage. As a result, China is both securing its feedstock supply and reshaping global soybean trade, while U.S. farmers face mounting losses and political pressure back home.
| CHINA |
— China’s 15th five-year plan to take shape amid slowing growth
Beijing’s top policy meetings coincide with third-quarter data expected to show cooling momentum
China begins a pivotal week Monday as policymakers convene for the Fourth Plenum to outline the framework of the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan, covering 2026–2030. The plan is expected to focus on strengthening domestic consumption, fostering innovation, and advancing self-reliance in strategic sectors such as semiconductors and clean energy. Although the complete blueprint will not be finalized until next year’s Two Sessions, the Plenum may reveal key policy priorities and ideological themes guiding China’s next phase of economic development.
Meanwhile, new data will test the government’s narrative of stability. According to ING Economics, third-quarter GDP figures are expected to show growth slowing to around 4.5% year-on-year, reflecting weaker retail sales, industrial output, and fixed asset investment despite a mild September rebound. The People’s Bank of China is set to keep loan prime rates unchanged, signaling limited monetary support ahead of the year’s end. September property prices — already on a downward trend — are also due, with few signs of recovery in the absence of fresh stimulus. Together, these developments will offer an early glimpse of Beijing’s economic strategy as it seeks to balance structural reforms with short-term growth stabilization.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms expected to impact portions of the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes this evening into
Sunday, reaching the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Sunday night into Monday… …Turning colder and unsettled across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with coastal and valley rain along with mountain snow and gusty winds.
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