Bessent, He Set Paris Talks as Trump/Xi Summit Planning Moves Forward
U.S./China trade talks set for Mid-March | Update on Iran situation
| LINKS |
Link: USTR 2026 Trade Policy Agenda
Link: E15 Expansion Could Reshape Fuel and Crop Markets
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 27
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 27
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 3, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Bessent, He set Paris talks as Trump/Xi summit planning moves forward
U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Paris to discuss potential Boeing aircraft sales, soybean purchases and Taiwan-related issues ahead of a planned Trump/Xi summit — signaling economic diplomacy continues despite Iran-related tensions.
— U.S./China trade talks set for Mid-March as Trump/Xi summit nears
Negotiators are preparing targeted commercial deals — including aircraft sales, soybean commitments and possible fentanyl tariff adjustments — as early deliverables before a leaders’ summit.
— Trump invokes constitutional authority for Iran strikes
President Trump formally notified Congress under the War Powers Resolution, starting a 60-day clock for military authorization as Democrats advance largely symbolic restraint measures.
— Trump signals long conflict as Middle East strikes intensify
Trump’s remarks about a potentially prolonged campaign have heightened market anxiety, with energy supply risks and inflation concerns rising if the conflict expands or persists.
— Iran threatens shipping in Strait of Hormuz as traffic collapses
Tanker strikes and insurance pullbacks have slashed vessel traffic through the Strait by more than 80%, triggering spikes in fuel, fertilizer and shipping costs globally.
— Greer, Rollins: ‘U.S. agriculture is back on top’ under Trump trade strategy
In a Hill op-ed, Ambassador Greer and Secretary Rollins argue reciprocal trade deals and expanded export promotion are restoring market access and financial stability for U.S. farmers.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Global markets reel as energy shock reverberates
Equities fell across Asia and Europe as oil and gas surged, pushing the U.S. 10-year yield to 4.09% and raising concerns about renewed inflation and delayed Fed rate cuts. The U.S. Dow opened around 850 points lower.
— Equities yesterday
Major indexes were mixed on March 2, with the Dow down slightly while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted modest gains.
AG MARKETS
— USDA daily export sale
USDA reported a sale of 196,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery.
— Agriculture markets yesterday
Grains and cotton mostly declined, soybean oil and cattle futures gained, and livestock markets showed mixed performance amid broader commodity volatility.
FARM POLICY
— House Ag Committee opens Farm Bill 2.0 markup
Lawmakers begin markup on a budget-neutral farm bill package, with amendments on nutrition and hemp policy likely debated as leadership faces difficult floor math in the House.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Tuesday: Energy markets surge as Gulf exports halt
Brent crude topped $82 and European gas jumped 40% as Gulf shipping disruptions and production shutdowns intensified global inflation risks.
— Monday: Energy markets surge as Gulf conflict hits oil, LNG and shipping
Oil rallied sharply after strikes and retaliations forced refinery closures, LNG shutdowns and major Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
— Rubio signals energy intervention as oil prices rise
The administration is preparing phased mitigation measures — potentially including an SPR drawdown — to cushion consumers from rising fuel costs.
TRADE POLICY
— Federal Circuit rejects delay in IEEPA tariff refunds
An appeals court cleared the way for the trade court to structure refunds of invalidated IEEPA tariffs, though repayment could take years depending on whether claims proceed administratively or via litigation.
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Supreme Court of the United States blocks new New York map
The Court’s stay preserves New York’s current congressional map for 2026, benefiting House Republicans and Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.).
— Ryan Zinke to step aside, citing health concerns
Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) will not seek re-election, opening a competitive Montana House seat Democrats are targeting.
— The stakes in Texas’ 2026 primaries
Texas primaries feature a high-stakes Senate GOP fight between Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-Texas), competitive Democratic and Republican contests, and closely watched races for TX-19 and Texas Agriculture Commissioner.
FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY
— Kennedy highlights meat industry ties at annual conference
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. promoted increased animal-protein consumption, affordability and cooking education, drawing debate from nutrition experts.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook
A frontal system will bring strong storms from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, a wintry mix in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and a cold front with mountain snow in the West, while above-average temperatures spread nationwide.
| TOP STORIES—Bessent, He set Paris talks as Trump/Xi summit planning moves forwardPotential Boeing sales and soybean purchases on agenda despite Iran-related tensions Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to meet in Paris at the end of next week to discuss potential commercial agreements flowing from a planned leaders’ summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter. The prospective agenda underscores that both Washington and Beijing are moving ahead with summit preparations despite escalating geopolitical tensions following U.S. airstrikes on Iran. Boeing, soybeans and strategic signaling. Among the issues expected to be discussed:•Potential Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft, a move that would provide a significant boost to U.S. manufacturing and signal stabilization in bilateral commercial ties. Any renewed aircraft order would be closely watched given past delivery freezes and regulatory frictions involving Boeing. •Commitments to buy U.S. soybeans, a politically and economically sensitive commodity central to U.S./China trade relations and to farm-state economies. Large-scale soybean purchases have historically been used as a confidence-building measure during periods of trade strain.•Taiwan-related issues, which remain one of the most delicate flashpoints in the relationship. While details are unclear, the inclusion of Taiwan suggests the talks may blend commercial arrangements with broader strategic positioning. Summit momentum despite Middle East conflict. The Paris meeting signals that neither side intends to allow the Middle East crisis to derail high-level diplomacy. The Trump administration’s strikes on Iranian targets — and the risk of prolonged regional conflict — have injected fresh volatility into global markets, including energy and shipping lanes critical to Asia. Yet the willingness to advance economic deal-making indicates a parallel track: managing geopolitical shocks while pursuing structured engagement between the world’s two largest economies. For markets — particularly in agriculture and aerospace — the key question is whether preliminary commercial commitments can be locked in ahead of a Trump/Xi summit. Concrete purchase announcements, especially on soybeans or aircraft, would likely be interpreted as a stabilizing gesture at a moment of elevated global risk. U.S./China trade talks set for Mid-March as Trump/Xi summit nearsAircraft, soybeans and fentanyl tariffs emerge as early bargaining chips in renewed economic diplomacy U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are preparing to meet in mid-March to lay the groundwork for a planned summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter. The talks are expected to focus less on sweeping structural reforms and more on targeted commercial deals that could deliver early, tangible wins for both sides — particularly in aviation, agriculture and tariff policy. Boeing back in focus. A potential Chinese purchase of aircraft from Boeing Co. is reportedly on the table. Such an order would serve multiple purposes:• Provide a symbolic reset in bilateral trade ties.• Offer economic support to the U.S. manufacturing sector.• Help China address fleet modernization needs amid rebounding travel demand. Aircraft purchases have historically been used as diplomatic signaling tools in U.S.–China relations, often timed around high-level visits or trade breakthroughs. Agriculture as a stabilizer. Commitments to buy U.S. soybeans are also under discussion — a familiar lever in trade negotiations. China remains the largest overseas buyer of U.S. soybeans, and stepped-up purchases would be particularly significant for American farmers navigating geopolitical volatility and energy-driven input cost pressures. For agricultural markets, even the signaling of renewed Chinese buying interest can influence futures pricing and export expectations. Any formal commitments would likely be viewed as a stabilizing force for U.S. farm income at a time of broader global uncertainty. Fentanyl tariffs in play. Another sensitive topic is the future of U.S. tariffs tied to fentanyl and related chemical supply chains. The Trump administration has previously used tariff authorities to pressure Beijing over precursor chemical flows used in illicit fentanyl production. A potential adjustment — whether partial relief or a conditional rollback — would signal that counternarcotics cooperation is being folded into broader trade diplomacy. That issue carries domestic political weight in the U.S., making it a high-stakes element of the negotiations. Summit dynamics. The planned Trump/Xi summit looms over the talks. Despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and broader market volatility, both sides appear motivated to demonstrate that economic channels remain open. Markets will watch closely for:• Signals of large-scale purchase commitments.• Any tariff adjustments or phased relief.• Indications that structural trade disputes are being deferred in favor of transactional agreements. For now, the mid-March meeting suggests that even amid geopolitical strain, Washington and Beijing are pursuing incremental economic stabilization ahead of a potentially consequential leaders’ summit. —Trump invokes constitutional authority for Iran strikesWar Powers clock begins as Democrats push symbolic limits on further escalation President Donald Trump on Monday formally notified Congress that he has directed U.S. military participation in strikes against Iran, asserting his “constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and Chief Executive to conduct foreign policy.” The report — submitted under the 1973 War Powers Resolution — outlines the administration’s legal and strategic justification for joining Israel in military operations that began Feb. 28. Legal framework and the 60-day clock. The War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of introducing U.S. forces into hostilities. It also mandates that troops must be withdrawn within 60 days unless Congress authorizes continued military engagement. With Monday’s letter, that 60-day clock is now officially ticking. In the report, Trump argued that the action falls squarely within his constitutional authority. The administration cited multiple justifications for the strikes, including:• Iran’s designation as a “state sponsor of terrorism.”• Tehran’s continued pursuit of nuclear weapons capability.• The need to protect U.S. forces stationed in the region.• Defense of the U.S. homeland.• Protection of maritime commerce through the Strait of Hormuz.• Collective self-defense of regional allies, including Israel. The letter frames the operation as both defensive and strategically necessary, emphasizing protection of shipping lanes and regional stability — particularly amid escalating tensions in the Gulf. Congressional response. The notification arrives as congressional Democrats advance separate war powers measures — S.J. Res. 104 and H.Con. Res. 38 — that would require explicit congressional authorization for any additional military action against Iran. Votes on those measures are expected this week. However, they are widely viewed as messaging efforts rather than viable constraints on executive action. To override a likely presidential veto, opponents of the military campaign would need a veto-proof majority in the Senate — a threshold that appears unlikely under current political dynamics. For now, the administration’s formal notice solidifies the legal posture of the operation while setting up a 60-day window that could become a focal point in the broader debate over executive war powers and congressional authority.—Trump signals long conflict as Middle East strikes intensifyMarkets and global businesses brace for extended military campaign and broader regional fallout Attacks across the Middle East intensified for a fourth straight day as President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of a prolonged U.S.-backed military campaign against Iran, rattling markets and heightening geopolitical uncertainty. “Whatever it takes,” Trump said when outlining his vision for the operation, later adding on social media that “wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully.” The remarks reinforced expectations that the administration is preparing for a sustained conflict rather than a limited, short-term strike campaign. The president’s language marks a shift from earlier framing that suggested a contained response focused on degrading Iran’s military infrastructure. Instead, markets are now weighing the risk of a drawn-out confrontation that could further destabilize the energy-rich region. Energy markets on alert. Oil prices have already surged in recent sessions as traders price in the risk of supply disruptions across the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil flows — remains a central flashpoint, with shipping traffic reportedly reduced amid security concerns. A prolonged conflict raises several risks:• Extended production outages at key oil and gas facilities in the Gulf• Higher war-risk insurance premiums for shipping companies• Potential spillover into LNG markets, tightening global natural gas supply• Renewed inflation pressures in Europe and Asia Energy-driven inflation could complicate monetary policy in the U.S. and abroad, especially if crude prices remain elevated for weeks rather than days. Broader economic ripple effects. Equity markets have shown increasing volatility, with investors rotating into traditional safe havens such as gold and the U.S. dollar. Business leaders are also reassessing supply chains, particularly in sectors tied to energy, fertilizers, petrochemicals, and global shipping. A drawn-out campaign risks:• Disruptions to container traffic through the Suez Canal and Red Sea• Higher transportation and logistics costs• Increased uncertainty for global manufacturing and agricultural trade flows For commodity-dependent industries — including agriculture — sustained higher energy costs could pressure margins through increased fertilizer, fuel, and freight expenses. Strategic uncertainty: The key variable now is duration. If the conflict remains geographically contained but prolonged, markets may adjust to a higher-risk baseline. However, any expansion involving additional regional actors or a significant closure of major shipping lanes would represent a materially more severe economic shock. Trump’s public comments suggest the administration is preparing for a long-haul confrontation. Whether that becomes a strategic deterrent posture or a sustained military reality will determine the scale of global economic repercussions in the weeks ahead. —Iran threatens shipping in Strait of Hormuz as traffic collapsesTanker strikes, insurance pullbacks and soaring fuel prices deepen global supply-chain shock Iran has threatened to attack any vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, sharply escalating maritime risks as U.S. and Israeli airstrikes entered a third day and retaliation intensified across the region. The warning triggered an immediate collapse in tanker traffic, surging fuel prices and a rapid retreat by marine insurers from high-risk coverage. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, ship traffic through the strait — a chokepoint that typically handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows — fell more than 80% after strikes began Saturday. Iranian aerial attacks reportedly hit at least five oil tankers, killing one sailor. Among the vessels struck was the U.S.-flagged Stena Imperative, damaged by explosive projectiles while docked in Bahrain. Suez return delayed, Red Sea risks resurface. The ripple effects are spreading well beyond the Gulf. Ocean carriers that had only recently resumed limited transits through the Suez Canal are again reassessing exposure. The conflict could significantly delay container shipping’s long-anticipated return to the canal after more than two years of diversions. Carriers are also closely monitoring renewed threats in the Red Sea, where Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants could resume attacks on commercial shipping, further straining global trade lanes. Energy and fertilizer prices surge. Energy markets reacted swiftly. European natural-gas prices jumped nearly 40% amid fears of disruptions to Qatari LNG supplies. In the U.S., diesel futures surged 12% — a potential blow to truckers and freight markets — while gasoline futures climbed 3.7%. Fertilizer prices are also poised to rise, as the Middle East is a key production and export hub for nitrogen-based inputs critical to global agriculture. A prolonged disruption could intensify cost pressures across farm economies and food supply chains.  Insurers pull back from war-risk coverage. Compounding the disruption, several major marine insurers have begun canceling specialized war-risk policies that cover vessels operating in conflict zones. Standard maritime policies typically exclude war damage, requiring shipowners to purchase supplemental coverage. Air travel also disrupted. The instability extends to aviation. Large swaths of regional airspace remain closed, disrupting one of the world’s busiest flight corridors. At least 11,000 flights have been canceled as Iranian missile and drone strikes targeted key infrastructure near major airport hubs. Upshot: With maritime, energy and air-transport systems simultaneously under strain, the widening Gulf crisis is rapidly evolving from a regional military confrontation into a full-spectrum global logistics shock. —Greer, Rollins: ‘U.S. agriculture is back on top’ under Trump trade strategyOp-ed outlines two-pronged push — aggressive trade negotiations and export promotion — to expand market access for American farmers In a March 2 op-ed published in The Hill,Ambassador Jamieson Greer and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins argue that U.S. agriculture is regaining global strength under President Donald Trump’s America First trade policy. Admission of financial strain. Greer and Rollins write that farmers and ranchers across the country — from cotton producers in Texas to sorghum growers in Kansas — have faced mounting financial strain in recent years, citing lost market access and what they describe as years of unfavorable trade policies. They contend that the Trump administration is reversing that trend through a “two-fold approach” aimed at leveling the playing field for U.S. agricultural exports. Trade leverage and new agreements. The first pillar of the strategy centers on reciprocal trade negotiations led by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. The authors argue that tariffs have provided leverage, prompting trading partners to reduce tariffs and remove non-tariff barriers in order to maintain access to the U.S. market. According to Greer and Rollins, eight reciprocal trade agreements have already been signed, with more expected in 2026. They highlight agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia opening markets for U.S. beef, pork, poultry and rice, and a deal with the United Kingdom creating opportunities for U.S. beef and $700 million in ethanol exports. In Central America, El Salvador agreed to eliminate certain fumigation and certification requirements and recognize U.S. food safety testing standards. Guatemala committed to purchase at least 50 million gallons of U.S. ethanol annually while adopting science-based import standards. Additional agreements were signed with Argentina, Bangladesh and Taiwan. Argentina granted duty-free access for a broad range of U.S. agricultural products, while Bangladesh committed to more than $2 billion in soybean, soy meal and wheat purchases. The Taiwan agreement includes preferential access and tariff reductions across nearly all U.S. agricultural products. USDA export promotion push. The second pillar involves USDA expanding export promotion efforts once agreements are finalized. The department awarded more than $250 million in market promotion funding last year through programs such as the Market Access Program and the Foreign Market Development program. USDA also hosted 10 trade missions — including seven agribusiness missions and three Trade Reciprocity missions — targeting countries where new market access has been negotiated. Missions have included Malaysia and Indonesia, with additional efforts planned as agreements are finalized. Greer and Rollins conclude that trade policy is not theoretical for farmers but directly tied to financial survival and rural prosperity, framing the administration’s efforts as essential to restoring stability and growth in the farm economy. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Global markets reel as energy shock reverberates
Inflation fears and war risk reprice equities, bonds and oil
Stocks across Asia and Europe fell sharply as investors recalibrated risk following the widening U.S./Israeli conflict with Iran, with futures signaling the S&P 500 will open lower in the United States.
In Asia, Japan -3.1%. Hong Kong -1.1%. China -1.4%. India closed.
In Europe, at midday, London -2.7%. Paris -3%. Frankfurt -3.8%.
In the U.S., the Dow opened around 850 points lower.
The selloff reflects a rapid shift from geopolitical shock to macro concern — specifically, whether a sustained energy disruption could reignite inflation just as major economies were stabilizing.
Bond market signals inflation anxiety. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.09%, up roughly 16 basis points since Friday. The move higher in yields underscores growing investor concern that rising oil and gas prices could filter quickly into consumer prices.
Markets are effectively repricing two risks at once:
• Energy-driven inflation
• Delayed or fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts
Higher yields suggest traders are questioning whether policymakers can ease monetary policy if headline inflation turns higher again.
Energy market sees violent swings. Oil and gas markets posted outsized moves as supply risks intensified across the Middle East. Key drivers behind the volatility:
• Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, constraining roughly 20% of global oil flows.
• Production stoppages have spread from Qatar to Iraq.
• European natural gas prices surged as LNG flows came under renewed threat.
• Insurance premiums for tankers and cargo vessels jumped sharply.
Oil’s surge is particularly sensitive for markets because persistent energy spikes historically feed into transportation, fertilizer, food, and industrial input costs — amplifying second-round inflation effects.
Why this matters for equities. The core question for equity markets is not just the size of the oil move — but its duration.
If disruptions remain short-lived, markets may treat this as a volatility event.
However, a prolonged conflict that keeps crude elevated above recent ranges could:
• Pressure corporate margins
• Reduce consumer spending power
• Complicate central bank policy
• Slow global growth
For agriculture and commodity-linked sectors sustained high energy prices would also lift fertilizer costs, biofuel economics, shipping rates, and potentially grain basis volatility.
The immediate focus. Markets are watching three variables closely:
1) Whether additional regional actors enter the conflict.
2) The status of shipping lanes and refinery operations.
3) Signals from the Federal Reserve regarding inflation tolerance.
For now, cross-asset price action suggests investors are shifting from “contained conflict” toward “inflation shock risk.”
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price March 2 | Point Difference from Feb. 27 | % Difference from Feb. 27 |
| Dow | 48,904.78 | -73.14 | -0.15% |
| Nasdaq | 22,748.86 | +80.65 | +0.36% |
| S&P 500 | 6,881.62 | +2.74 | +0.04% |
| AG MARKETS |
—USDA daily export sale: 196,000 MT corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price March 2 | Change from Feb. 27 |
| Corn | May | $4.45 3/4 | -2 3/4¢ |
| Soybeans | May | $11.64 | -6 3/4¢ |
| Soybean Meal | May | $312.90 | -$7.60 |
| Soybean Oil | May | 62.74 | +89 points |
| SRW Wheat | May | $5.77 1/4 | -14 1/4¢ |
| HRW Wheat | May | $5.74 3/4 | -5 3/4¢ |
| Spring Wheat | May | $6.10 | -2 3/4¢ |
| Cotton | May | 64.59¢ | -102 points |
| Live Cattle | April | $233.10 | +87 1/2¢ |
| Feeder Cattle | March | $357.275 | +$1.85 |
| Lean Hogs | April | $95.575 | -15¢ |
| FARM POLICY |
—House Ag Committee opens Farm Bill 2.0 markup
Amendments on nutrition, hemp restrictions and floor math set up potentially contentious path forward
The House Ag Committee is set to begin markup at 5 p.m. ET on its so-called Farm Bill 2.0 package, launching what could be an extended session as lawmakers debate a slate of amendments and test the bill’s political viability.
Several amendments are formally teed up for consideration, though some are expected to be withdrawn before votes are taken. Democrats on the panel have prepared amendments aimed at reversing nutrition-program changes enacted under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Those proposals, however, are widely expected to fail in committee.
Other amendments focus on hemp policy. Lawmakers will weigh proposals to delay new restrictions on hemp-derived products — with one amendment calling for a two-year delay and another seeking a one-year postponement.
The markup is expected to stretch into the evening as members work through debate and amendment votes. Even if the committee ultimately reports the bill favorably, the more difficult hurdle may come next: securing floor time and assembling enough votes for passage in the full House chamber.
With several conservative Republicans signaling potential opposition, leadership may need Democratic support to move the measure through the House — setting up a politically delicate balancing act as the broader farm bill debate intensifies.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Tuesday: Energy markets surge as Gulf exports halt
Oil tops $82, European gas up 40% as Strait of Hormuz closure jolts global economy
Global oil and gas prices jumped Tuesday as the U.S./Israeli war on Iran halted key Middle East exports, shutting down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for a fourth straight day.
Brent crude rose above $82 per barrel — up more than 15% since Friday — while European natural gas prices surged 40% after a similar jump Monday. Sugar, fertilizer and soy prices also climbed.
Iranian attacks on ships and energy facilities forced major production stoppages: Qatar shut its LNG operations (about 20% of global supply), Saudi Arabia suspended its largest refinery, and output was curtailed in Iraq and Israel. Hundreds of tankers remain stranded near Gulf export hubs.
The disruption threatens to reignite global inflation. U.S. gasoline prices climbed above $3 per gallon, posing political risk ahead of November midterms. India has begun rationing gas supplies, and Europe — already reliant on imports — may lean more heavily on U.S. LNG.
If the Strait remains closed and tanker shortages persist, regional producers could be forced into broader output cuts, prolonging the energy shock.
—Monday: Energy markets surge as Gulf conflict hits oil, LNG and shipping
Strait of Hormuz disruptions and regional shutdowns push crude, gas sharply higher
Crude futures rallied sharply Monday after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets — and Tehran’s retaliation — triggered widespread shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East and severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. crude settled up $4.21, 6.28%, at $71.23 per barrel, while Brent gained $4.87, 6.68%, to close at $77.74. At session highs, oil surged as much as 13% to above $82 per barrel — the strongest level since January 2025.
LNG and refining capacity hit. Energy infrastructure across the Gulf faced mounting pressure:
•Qatar halted liquefied natural gas production after Iranian drone strikes hit facilities at the Ras Laffan industrial complex. Qatar supplies roughly 20% of global LNG, and QatarEnergy was preparing to declare force majeure on shipments.
•Saudi Arabia suspended operations at Saudi Aramco’s 550,000-barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery after nearby drone interceptions, though officials said domestic fuel supplies remain stable.
•Iraqi Kurdistan halted roughly 200,000 barrels per day of output exported via Turkey as a precaution.
• Offshore Israel, Chevron temporarily shut the Leviathan gas field, while Energean suspended production at smaller fields.
European natural gas markets reacted forcefully, with prices at the Dutch TTF hub surging 46%.
Strait of Hormuz disruption fuels volatility. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil supply — slowed dramatically amid escalating security risks, compounding fears of sustained supply disruption.
Explosions were also reported at Iran’s Kharg Island export terminal, which processes about 90% of the country’s crude exports, though damage assessments remain unclear. Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels per day of crude and an additional 1.3 million bpd of condensate, representing roughly 4.5% of global supply.
With multiple production and export hubs now under direct threat, energy markets are bracing for heightened volatility as the U.S./Israeli conflict with Iran deepens and infrastructure increasingly becomes a direct target.
—Rubio signals energy intervention as oil prices rise
Administration prepares SPR option and phased measures to contain inflation fallout
Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged Monday that rising energy prices were an anticipated consequence of the escalating U.S. military action against Iran, signaling that the administration is preparing coordinated steps to limit the economic fallout. Speaking publicly, Rubio said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright would begin rolling out a phased mitigation program starting today (March 3). “We knew that going in would be a factor,” Rubio said, referring to higher oil prices. “Starting tomorrow you will see us rolling out those phases to try to mitigate against that.”
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in focus. A central tool available to the administration is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which can be tapped under emergency authority if officials determine that a “severe increase” in oil prices threatens the U.S. economy.
As of last week, the SPR held approximately 415.4 million barrels of crude oil — a sizable cushion, though well below peak levels seen in prior decades. An emergency drawdown could inject additional supply into global markets and signal Washington’s willingness to stabilize prices.
The administration’s objective is clear: blunt the impact on consumers who are already fatigued by inflation pressures. With gasoline prices highly visible to voters and businesses sensitive to transportation and input costs, energy policy is now directly intersecting with national security strategy.
Inflation and economic stakes. Oil markets have reacted sharply to the widening U.S./Israeli campaign against Iran, particularly given the strategic vulnerability of shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz. The duration of U.S. military engagement will likely determine whether current price spikes remain a temporary volatility event or evolve into a broader macroeconomic headwind.
If the conflict proves brief and contained, the administration’s phased response — potentially anchored by SPR releases — could cap inflationary pressures. However, a prolonged disruption to Middle East supply chains risks feeding into higher fuel, fertilizer, shipping, and consumer prices globally.
Markets are now watching two variables closely:
• Energy supply stability — especially Gulf production and maritime flows.
•Conflict duration — whether rhetoric about a potentially extended campaign serves primarily as deterrence or signals sustained military operations.
The administration’s rollout beginning today will provide the first concrete indication of how aggressively Washington intends to intervene in energy markets to protect U.S. economic stability.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Federal Circuit rejects delay in IEEPA tariff refunds
Appeals court clears path for trade court to begin refund framework — but process could stretch for years
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has rejected the administration’s request to delay proceedings related to refunds of tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which the U.S. Supreme Court recently invalidated as a legal basis for those duties.
The ruling now shifts the focus to the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT), which is expected to begin establishing the framework for how refunds will be handled.
While the appellate court’s decision moves the process forward, significant uncertainty remains about how — and how quickly — importers will recover funds.
Administrative refunds or prolonged litigation. Administration officials have cautioned that even with a clear Supreme Court directive, the refund process could take years to unfold. They have pledged to comply with the ruling, but observers say the mechanics of repayment are far from settled.
Two primary pathways are emerging:
1) Administrative route: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) could create a centralized administrative system to return duties directly to affected importers. This approach would likely be faster and more uniform.
2) Litigation route: Alternatively, the government could require companies to pursue individual legal claims to recover their payments. That scenario could significantly slow the process, potentially overwhelming the CIT and stretching repayments out over several years.
The stakes are substantial. More than 2,000 lawsuits have already been filed seeking recovery of the IEEPA tariffs, and reports indicate roughly 300,000 importers paid the duties in question.
If individual litigation becomes the primary mechanism, trade court proceedings could grind forward case by case, creating prolonged uncertainty for businesses that have carried the tariff costs on their balance sheets.
The Federal Circuit’s decision removes a key procedural roadblock, but the practical resolution of tariff refunds now hinges on how aggressively the administration and the trade court move to structure — or constrain — the repayment process.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Supreme Court of the United States blocks new New York map
High court stay preserves current lines for 2026 midterms — delivering boost to House GOP and Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.)
The Supreme Court has temporarily blocked a New York court order that would have required the state to redraw its congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterm elections — ensuring that current district lines remain in place for this cycle.
The unsigned order stays a lower-court ruling that had directed New York to produce a revised map after litigation over how districts were drawn. Had the order taken effect, the redraw could have improved Democratic prospects by making at least one additional seat more competitive — particularly the Staten Island–anchored district represented by Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.).
Immediate political impact. The decision is a near-term win for House Republicans, who are defending a narrow majority and face a challenging national map. Malliotakis’ district — which includes Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn — had been viewed by Democrats as a prime pickup opportunity under revised lines. With the stay in place, she will run in a district configuration that previously allowed her to withstand strong Democratic challenges, preserving a key GOP-held seat in a heavily Democratic state.
Broader redistricting stakes. The high court’s intervention underscores the continued volatility surrounding congressional redistricting litigation nationwide. While the ruling does not resolve the underlying legal dispute, it effectively freezes New York’s current map through the upcoming election cycle — a significant development given the razor-thin margins in the House.
For Democrats, the setback narrows one potential pathway to gaining seats in the Northeast.
For Republicans, it removes immediate uncertainty in a district that could have been reshaped in ways more favorable to Democratic turnout dynamics in New York City.
The case also highlights how late-cycle court rulings can alter — or preserve — the balance of power in Washington, particularly when individual districts may determine control of the chamber.
—Ryan Zinke to step aside, citing health concerns
Montana Republican’s exit opens competitive house seat as Democrats eye majority
Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) announced Monday that he will not seek re-election to Montana’s 1st Congressional District, citing ongoing health challenges stemming from his service in U.S. Special Forces.
Zinke, who previously served as U.S. Interior Secretary during President Donald Trump’s first term and returned to Congress in 2022, said he needs to focus on mounting health issues that trace back to his military career. A former Navy SEAL commander, Zinke has frequently referenced the physical toll of his years in uniform.
His departure creates an immediate battleground opportunity in western Montana — a district Democrats have been targeting as part of their broader effort to reclaim control of the House. The seat has been competitive in recent cycles, reflecting Montana’s shifting political landscape following its gain of a second congressional district after the 2020 census.
National Democrats are expected to aggressively contest the open seat, particularly given the historical tendency for the party out of power in the White House to perform strongly in midterm elections. Republicans, meanwhile, will be working to defend the district in a state that has trended Republican at the federal level but has elected Democrats statewide in the past.
Zinke’s exit adds to growing uncertainty in the House map, where retirements and open seats often reshape campaign strategies and fundraising priorities on both sides of the aisle.
—The stakes in Texas’ 2026 primaries
Cornyn faces a serious GOP challenge from Paxton as Democrats battle in a competitive Crockett/Talarico primary, setting up potential May runoffs in both parties
Texas voters are casting ballots today to choose nominees for the November general election, with competitive races from U.S. Senate down through congressional and statewide offices. Among the many contests on the ballot, two key races drawing attention are the Republican primary for U.S. House in Texas’ 19th Congressional District and the GOP contest for Texas Agriculture Commissioner.
Republican Primary — Texas’ 19th Congressional District
A Crowded GOP Field
With longtime Republican U.S. Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) not seeking re-election, the GOP nomination in the 19th Congressional District has drawn a seven-person field that will be decided in today’s primary.
Tom Sell emerging as front runner. Tom Sell (Republican) — a fifth-generation West Texas native with political experience working in Washington and on agricultural policy — appears to be leading the field. He has raised the most campaign money in the race by a significant margin, reporting over $1.2 million in contributions, which places him ahead of his rivals financially and in visibility. Sell’s campaign emphasizes his local roots, ties to West Texas communities like Lubbock, Big Spring and Abilene, and his experience with agricultural and rural issues — all central to appealing to voters in this High Plains district. He’s also been endorsed by business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which positions him as a pro-economic growth candidate.
Other Republican contenders include:
• Abraham Enriquez, who is framing his campaign around his connection to President Trump’s agenda and national conservative priorities;
•Jason Corley, a Lubbock County commissioner;
•James Barbee, Donald May, Matt Smith, and Ryan Zink.
Because the district is overwhelmingly Republican, the winner of today’s GOP primary is widely expected to prevail in the general election this fall.
Republican primary — Texas Agriculture Commissioner. The Texas Agriculture Commissioner is a statewide office with authority over the Texas Department of Agriculture and influence on a major economic sector in the state. The GOP contest this year is unusually high-profile: incumbent Sid Miller is seeking a fourth term, but his bid has become competitive.
Sid Miller vs. Nate Sheets
Sid Miller (Republican) — the incumbent, first elected in 2014, has a long history in state politics and retains support among some conservative voters and rural constituencies.
Nate Sheets (Republican) — a businessman and former beekeeper (founder of Nature Nate’s honey brand), is mounting a serious challenge that has drawn endorsements from key Republican leaders including Gov. Greg Abbott. Abbott’s backing of Sheets — in opposition to the incumbent — has helped reshape the narrative in this primary and focus attention on issues like agricultural regulation and industry support.
Sheets has emphasized modernizing the department’s approach and using his business experience to support farmers and ranchers, while Miller leans on his record in office and continued ties to conservative activists.
The contest has drawn national political figures into state-level debates. Former President Trump has publicly endorsed Miller, while Abbott’s support for Sheets signals a split among GOP establishment figures in Texas. These endorsements highlight broader factional dynamics within the state party.
Texas Ag Commissioner also draws a Democratic candidate — Clayton Tucker — but in today’s Republican-leaning part of the cycle, the GOP winner is favored to move into the November general election.
In races where no candidate secures a majority, some primaries could trigger runoffs later in the spring.
U.S. Senate — competitive primaries on both sides
Republican primary: Cornyn, Paxton and Hunt
Incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) is seeking a fifth six-year term in office, but his renomination isn’t assured. Cornyn, a four-term GOP stalwart and longtime Senate Republican leader, is facing significant intra-party challenges.
Ken Paxton (R) — Texas Attorney General — has emerged as the leading challenger in many polls, generally holding a slight edge over Cornyn by a few points heading into Election Day. Paxton’s campaign is tapping into grassroots conservative voters and Trump-aligned activists.
Wesley Hunt (R) — U.S. Representative from Texas’s 38th District — is also running, appealing to some GOP voters as a younger, energetic alternative to both Paxton and Cornyn.
Most recent polling averages show no single candidate breaking 50% support, meaning this race is widely expected to head to a runoff on May 26 under Texas law.
Cornyn retains strong fundraising advantages and establishment backing, but an endorsement from former President Donald Trump has not been formally secured, a notable gap that has fueled uncertainty.
If these dynamics hold, Paxton and Cornyn are the most likely two to advance to the runoff, with Hunt trailing but still competitive enough to influence vote splits.
Democratic primary: Crockett vs. Talarico. On the Democratic side, the primary is a high-profile contest between two prominent lawmakers:
•U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), representing Dallas, has built a national profile as an outspoken progressive voice in Congress and has drawn endorsements from national figures, including former Vice President Kamala Harris and some cultural figures that have boosted visibility.
•State Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas), representing Austin, has campaigned as a pragmatic choice who could appeal to moderates and crossover voters in a statewide contest.
Polls in the Democratic primary have shown close competition with some surveys giving Talarico a slight edge among likely primary voters, while others earlier indicated Crockett with a lead.
Like the GOP primary, it’s possible the Democratic contest also heads to a runoff if neither candidate secures a majority.
What to watch tonight:
•Will any Senate candidate break 50%? If not, both GOP and Democratic Senate primaries will need runoff elections on May 26.
•How strong is Cornyn’s support statewide? A weak showing could signal shifting dynamics in Texas GOP politics.
•Democratic turnout patterns — strong turnout in the Democratic primary could translate into greater general election engagement.
| FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—Kennedy highlights meat industry ties at annual conference
HHS secretary promotes animal protein, affordability and cooking education amid nutrition debate
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. underscored his alignment with the meat industry Monday, delivering opening remarks at the Annual Meat Conference in National Harbor and reinforcing his push for greater animal-protein consumption under the Trump administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans.
Kennedy emphasized affordability and access, arguing that high-quality food and protein remain within reach for American consumers — even amid persistent concerns over grocery prices. Days after suggesting that Americans concerned about high beef prices should consider cheaper cuts such as liver, Kennedy reiterated that cost should not be a barrier.
Quote of note: “If you’re smart about how you buy food, you can get high-quality food anywhere in this country,” he said, adding that President Donald Trump “wants to make high-quality food available and affordable for every American family.”
Push for more animal protein. With the rollout of updated federal dietary guidelines, Kennedy has encouraged Americans to increase their intake of animal-based protein. He argued that meat offers a superior nutritional profile compared to plant-based sources because it contains complete amino acid chains and delivers higher protein density per calorie.
That claim has drawn pushback from some nutrition experts, who note that well-planned vegetarian and plant-based diets can provide adequate — and often ample — protein. Researchers at the Harvard University T.H. Chan School of Public Health have found that Americans already consume more protein on average than federal recommendations require, raising questions about whether increasing intake further would meaningfully improve public health outcomes.
The debate reflects broader tensions between agricultural industry priorities and public health messaging — particularly as policymakers attempt to balance dietary science, food affordability and domestic production interests.
Focus on cooking skills. Kennedy also signaled that HHS plans to distribute new educational resources aimed at improving Americans’ cooking skills. He described limited culinary knowledge as an “impediment” to healthier eating habits, suggesting that equipping consumers with practical food-preparation skills could help families make better nutritional choices within their budgets.
The remarks reinforce Kennedy’s emerging role as a vocal advocate for meat producers and traditional animal agriculture, even as nutrition researchers continue to debate optimal protein intake levels and dietary composition.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Frontal system to bring showers and potentially strong thunderstorms between the southern Plains and Ohio Valley over the next few days, with a light wintry mix throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today… …Potent cold front to cross the western U.S. and Rockies by midweek, producing gusty winds and mountain snowfall… …Above average temperatures are forecast to become widespread across the Nation this week, with record-breaking warmth possible in the southern Plains today.
