Bessent, Rollins Talk Key Issues on Fox Business
Updates on China purchases of U.S. soybeans, beef prices, SNAP, reopening of U.S./Mexico border
Link: The Week Ahead: House Returns to Work with Packed Schedule
Link: Weekend Updates, Nov. 15, 2025: Tariff Rollback Eases Fertilizer Pressures
Ahead of 2026 Planting Season
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 14
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 14
Today’s Updates:
TOP STORIES
— Bessent, Rollins talk key issues with Fox Business
— Tariff thaw with China could modestly lift U.S. soybean prices
— Bessent downplays $10 ground beef warning, cites cyclical market pressures
— U.S. and Brazil push for year-end trade framework
— U.S./Switzerland/Liechtenstein tariff deal cuts barriers for American beef, poultry
and key farm goods
— Global markets poised for data surge after U.S. government reopens
— FAA ends shutdown-era flight cuts
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global equities drifted lower as markets took a breather
— Gov’t shutdown ends, but bigger fights loom
— Fed minutes in focus — Will the Fed signal a shift in rate strategy?
AG MARKETS
— Veteran analyst and trader: USDA’S 2026 livestock outlook is way off
WOTUS
— New WOTUS plan expected today
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices fell as loading resumed at the key Russian export hub of Novorossiysk
— Chevron’s exit from biodiesel lobby raises new questions for U.S. clean fuels policy
CONGRESS
— GOP faces criticism for drifting Congress with no clear policy direction
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Kaine pushes back on Schumer critics
HPAI/BIRD FLU
— New human bird-flu case confirmed in Washington state
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Monday
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 17, 2025
Up Front— Bessent, Rollins talk key issues with Fox Business: Officials defend China’s soybean commitments, downplay $10 beef fears, and justify a nationwide SNAP fraud crackdown. Rollins details coming reopening of U.S./Mexico border.— A tariff thaw with China could modestly lift U.S. soybean prices: Potential rollback of fentanyl-related tariffs eases political risk and could slightly boost U.S. soybean sales to China.— Bessent downplays $10 ground beef warning, cites cyclical market pressures: Treasury chief says beef inflation stems from long cattle cycles and inherited structural shortages, not new policy.— U.S. and Brazil push for year-end trade framework: Washington and Brasília aim for a provisional tariff deal within weeks, but steep U.S. duties still weigh on Brazilian exports.— U.S./Switzerland/Liechtenstein tariff deal cuts barriers for American beef, poultry and key farm goods: New framework trims reciprocal tariffs and opens high-income Alpine markets to more U.S. meat, dairy, nuts and seafood.— Global markets poised for data surge after U.S. government reopens: Rebooted U.S. statistics and Fed minutes headline a packed global data week as investors reassess growth and inflation.— FAA ends shutdown-era flight cuts: Improved controller staffing lets regulators lift flight caps and restore normal airline schedules starting Monday.FINANCIAL MARKETS— Equities today: Global stocks soften ahead of Nvidia earnings as investors digest last week’s tech pullback.— Gov’t shutdown ends, but bigger fights loom: Economist Michael Drury warns the short funding deal sets up another bruising budget, Fed and China showdown.— Fed minutes in focus — Will the Fed signal a shift in rate strategy? Markets look to October minutes for clues on whether December rate cuts remain on the table amid data gaps.AG MARKETS— Veteran analyst and trader: USDA’S 2026 livestock outlook is way off: Private forecaster says USDA is underestimating 2026 pork and beef supplies by about 1 million head each.WOTUS— New WOTUS plan expected today: EPA chief Zeldin is poised to unveil a narrower Clean Water Act rule that could remove protections from many wetlands.ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY— Oil prices fell as loading resumed at the key Russian export hub of Novorossiysk: Crude eases after export flows restart from the Black Sea port hit by a Ukrainian attack.— Chevron’s sudden exit from biodiesel lobby raises new questions for U.S. clean fuels policy: Chevron leaving Clean Fuels Alliance America underscores tensions over EPA blending rules and weakening renewable diesel economics.CONGRESS— GOP faces criticism for drifting Congress with no clear policy direction: Wall Street Journal editorial says Republicans are squandering unified government on investigations instead of an economic agenda.POLITICS & ELECTIONS— Kaine pushes back on Schumer critics: Sen. Tim Kaine defends Schumer and tells House progressives to resolve their own leadership disputes first.HPAI/BIRD FLU— New human bird-flu case confirmed in Washington state: First U.S. H5N5 infection leaves one patient severely ill, but officials say overall public risk remains low.WEATHER— NWS outlook: Heavy Sierra snow, Great Lakes lake-effect bands, and upslope snow in the Northeast dominate Monday’s forecast. TOP STORIES —Bessent, Rollins talk key issues with Fox BusinessChina soybean commitments, $10 beef concerns, reopening U.S./Mexico border, and SNAP fraud crackdown Q1: Is China slowing or blocking purchases of U.S. soybeans — and will they meet the commitment for 12 million tons by year-end? Maria Bartiromo: “Are you expecting China to resume the purchases of soybeans, or are they going to double-cross us on that as well?” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “China has already begun making soybean purchases,” he said. “They have agreed to buy 12 million tons this marketing season, with 25 million tons per year for the following three years — a total of 87 million tons. He insisted Beijing is not double-crossing the U.S., adding that “we have lots of levers” if China fails to comply. He also noted that soybean prices have moved higher since the Trump/Xi meeting in Korea, signaling improving demand. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins (later in the program): Confirmed the administration’s view that China will honor the 12-million-ton commitment, though the deal is not yet signed, which may explain why purchases have been slow (“only ~330,000 tons so far”). Said President Trump is “dog on a bone” about protecting U.S. soybean farmers and ensuring they are prioritized in all trade agreements. Asserted that USDA expects China to fulfill the commitment once the agreement is finalized by Thanksgiving. Takeaway: Washington acknowledges a temporary slowdown, but maintains full confidence that China will meet its pledged soybean volumes once the broader trade agreement is officially executed. Q2: Will U.S. consumers really face “$10-a-pound” ground beef by late 2026? Maria Bartiromo: “The CEO of Omaha Steaks says we’re headed for $10-a-pound ground beef by the third quarter of 2026. What’s your reaction?” Rollins: She disagrees with Omaha Steaks CEO Nate Rempe’s prediction. Argues that the current supply crisis stems from the Biden administration’s “war on cattle,” including policies she says encouraged smaller herd sizes for climate-related reasons. Rollins noted additional short-term pressures:• Low herd size due to drought• An 8% jump in U.S. beef demand• Border closures caused by screw-worm outbreaks that halted about 1 million head of cattle from crossing from Mexico• Says the Trump administration is executing a multi-part recovery plan: Reopening borders once screw-worm controls are finalized Opening 5 million acres of new grazing land Rebuilding the national herd Of note: USDA’s internal modeling expects beef prices to begin falling by next spring, and “certainly by summer and fall of next year.” Takeaway: While industry executives predict $10 ground beef by Q3 2026, USDA insists prices will turn downward by 2025, driven by new grazing access, border reopenings, and herd rebuilding. Q3: Why is USDA forcing all SNAP recipients to reapply — and how widespread is program fraud? Maria Bartiromo: “SNAP benefits are flowing again after the shutdown — but you’re requiring all participants to reapply as part of a crackdown on fraud. What did you find?” Rollins: Said SNAP was “rife with fraud,” and that for years states provided no reliable data. After demanding audits from each state: 29 states complied (mostly red states). Findings so far include:• 186,000 deceased individuals receiving benefits• 500,000 individuals receiving more than double benefits• Thousands receiving SNAP in three to six different states simultaneously She emphasized that this is only from 29 states; further litigation is underway to obtain data from holdouts like California and New York. She criticized the Biden administration for a 40% expansion of SNAP, arguing it occurred “without accountability.” Rollins framed the reapplication requirement as the first step in a nationwide integrity overhaul to ensure that the program’s resources “go to families who truly need it.” Takeaway: USDA says early audits reveal widespread improper payments, motivating a full national re-verification of all 40+ million SNAP recipients — the largest compliance check in program history. What this means for U.S. agriculture and consumers Soybeans: The administration insists China will meet the 12-million-ton commitment, though volumes are slow while the trade deal awaits signing. Beef: Industry forecasts warn of $10/lb beef in 2026, but USDA says new grazing acreage, border reopening, and herd rebuilding will reverse price pressures by mid-2025. SNAP: A massive data-integrity effort uncovered hundreds of thousands of fraudulent or duplicate cases, triggering a national re-enrollment mandate. Rollins on Reopening the U.S./Mexico Cattle Border During her interview with Mornings with Maria, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins gave one of the clearest explanations yet for why U.S. beef supplies have been tight — and how the administration plans to fix it. Here is the expanded detail on border reopening, based entirely on her remarks and the broader context she referenced. 1. Why the border was partially closed in the first place Rollins explained that the U.S. cattle border with Mexico — normally a major source of feeder cattle for U.S. feedlots — has been constrained for months because of the screw-worm outbreak south of the border. Screwworm crisis• A serious parasite infestation, highly destructive to cattle.• Mexico experienced renewed screw-worm detections beginning in the spring.• To protect U.S. herds, USDA and APHIS tightened border controls dramatically. Resulting border restrictions• Rollins said the ports of entry in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona had been essentially shut to Mexican cattle imports “almost since late spring.”• According to her, this halted the movement of about 1 million head of cattle that traditionally cross the border each year. This loss of feeder cattle has contributed directly to tight supplies, elevated packing-plant competition for animals, and rising wholesale and retail beef prices. 2. How closing the border added to today’s “perfect storm” in beef markets Rollins tied the border situation into a broader narrative:• The U.S. herd is already historically low due to multi-year drought.• Protein demand is up 8%, particularly for beef.• The Biden administration’s “war on cattle,” she argued, encouraged smaller herd sizes and regulatory hostility.• When you layer on the border closure, U.S. supplies tightened even further. This, she said, helped create the conditions driving the “$10-a-pound ground beef” warnings from industry voices — though she disputes that outcome. 3. How close the U.S. is to reopening the border Rollins said the Trump administration has made reopening the border a top priority, and that the process is already well underway. Key points she made• The screwworm outbreak is now under control south of the border, though “a couple more things” remain before USDA can fully reopen the crossings.• The remaining steps appear to be: Finalizing epidemiological clearance on affected regions. Certifying inspection and treatment protocols with Mexican authorities. Ensuring APHIS can scale up U.S. inspection capacity safely at ports of entry. How she described the timeline. • She repeatedly stressed: “We’re getting close.”• She suggested border reopening is expected “soon” and will be one of the earliest levers to relieve beef supply pressure in 2025. 4. What happens once the border reopens Rollins said reopening the Mexico border will be one of the fastest ways to increase U.S. beef supply and stop the acceleration in prices. Expected outcomes after reopening• Resumption of ~1 million head per year in feeder cattle flows.• Increased supply for U.S. feedlots, easing bottlenecks.• Lower cost pressure on packers.• Downstream relief in retail prices. She linked this to the administration’s view that beef prices will start falling by next spring — long before 2027, contradicting Omaha Steaks’ forecast. 5. Reopening the border is part of a larger strategy Rollins emphasized the border fix isn’t happening in isolation.The administration is simultaneously:• Opening 5 million acres of new U.S. grazing land.• Accelerating herd rebuilding efforts.• Using trade policy to lower beef tariffs and reduce imported feed costs.• Investigating packer practices through DOJ. She framed border reopening as the fastest short-term lever in a multi-layer strategy to increase beef availability and push prices down. Rollins’ core message: The border with Mexico has been largely closed to cattle for months due to screw-worm risks, costing the U.S. supply about 1 million head — but the crisis is now nearly contained. USDA is preparing to reopen the ports soon, and once cattle flows resume, beef prices should begin easing as early as spring and summer 2025. —A tariff thaw with China could modestly lift U.S. soybean pricesRemoval of the final 10% fentanyl-related tariff would ease political risk and may nudge Chinese state buyers toward more U.S. cargoes The Trump administration’s consideration of removing the remaining 10% tariff on Chinese fentanyl-related products — part of a wider diplomatic exchange following Beijing’s new export controls on 13 fentanyl precursor chemicals — has drawn immediate attention from agricultural markets. While the tariff itself is unrelated to agriculture, its potential removal signals a broader easing of U.S./China trade tensions that could provide a modest but tangible lift to U.S. soybean prices bound for China. Beijing’s sudden announcement that export licenses will now be required for key fentanyl precursors came just 11 days after President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping met in South Korea. Chinese ministries said the new controls took effect immediately, marking one of China’s most significant moves yet to curb the flow of chemicals that Mexican drug cartels use to manufacture illicit fentanyl for the U.S. market. Washington, in turn, is weighing whether to roll back the last tranche of fentanyl-related tariffs — a gesture that could ease friction across the entire trade relationship. Easing geopolitical tensions supports U.S. soybean values. Agricultural markets respond acutely to geopolitical risk, and soybeans — long the centerpiece of U.S./China trade disputes — tend to be the first commodity affected when relations warm or cool. Dropping the 10% tariff would not directly change agricultural duty rates, but it would reduce the political risk premium China often applies when sourcing U.S. soybeans. Analysts expect such a move could lift U.S. soybean prices to China by roughly 5–20 cents per bushel, mainly via:• Higher FOB Gulf values (up 5–15 cents)• Higher PNW values, where China favors faster transit (up 10–20 cents)• A narrower discount versus Brazilian soybeans, reducing China’s incentive to rely exclusively on Brazilian supply The price impact stems from improved diplomatic conditions, not structural supply-side changes. China adjusts soybean procurement patterns in response to political cues, pulling back when tensions rise and stepping up purchases when relations improve. State-owned buying is the largest variable. The greatest potential boost comes from China’s state grain giants —COFCO and Sinograin — whose procurement decisions often serve as diplomatic signals. If Beijing interprets the tariff rollback as a meaningful gesture, state buyers could step up purchases of U.S. soybeans in batches of 5–10 cargoes. Such buying bursts typically push flat price values up 10–30 cents/bu, especially during the peak booking window for February–April shipment. Brazil still dominates, but the U.S. regains some competitive edge. Brazil’s structural advantages — cheaper freight from northern ports, a weaker real, and aggressive acreage expansion —ensure that it remains China’s primary supplier. Still, a thaw in U.S./China tensions reduces the “informal” headwinds the U.S. has faced:• Fewer SPS inspection slowdowns• More predictable customs clearances• Reduced risk of overnight retaliatory measures• Slight yuan strengthening, improving China’s dollar-buying power These factors help U.S. soybeans regain competitiveness at the margin, particularly through the PNW, where transit time is a major advantage. 2026 trade-flow outlook: U.S. vs. Brazil soybean share. The potential tariff rollback enters a year in which China will be navigating tight global supplies early, expanding Brazilian production by midyear, and uncertain U.S. weather into late summer. Against that backdrop, political stability becomes a meaningful tiebreaker for Chinese buyers. Base Case (no tariff removal / status quo tensions)•Brazil share: 63–65% of China’s total 2026 soybean imports• U.S. share: 28–30%• Argentina/others: 5–7% China continues to favor Brazil heavily due to price, currency, and freight advantages. U.S. soybeans remain a complementary supplier during seasonal gaps. Improved relations case (tariff removed, successful precursor controls)• Brazil share: 60–62%• U.S. share: 31–34%• Argentina/others: 4–6% A smoother diplomatic environment encourages COFCO/Sinograin to allocate more Q1–Q2 purchases to the U.S., keeping Brazilian premiums in check and trimming the political discount. Bullish U.S. case (Major state buying + supply tightness in Brazil)• Brazil share: 56–59%• U.S. share: 35–38%•Argentina/others: 4–6% Under this scenario — requiring both goodwill and weather issues in Brazil — the U.S. briefly regains a larger share, particularly if China accelerates purchases from the PNW to secure tonnage ahead of market tightening. Bearish U.S. case (relations re-sour, yuan weakens, Brazil crop surges)• Brazil share: 66–70%• U.S. share: 25–27%• Argentina/others: 3–5% Any deterioration in U.S./China dialogue or strong Brazilian output widens the spread, prompting China to revert to Brazilian dominance. Bottom Line: Dropping the remaining 10% fentanyl-related tariff will not overhaul global soybean flows — but it will reduce political friction, modestly lift U.S. price competitiveness, and increase the likelihood of larger state-owned Chinese purchases heading into early 2026. In tight-margin markets like soybeans, even a 3–5 percentage-point gain in China’s import share equates to several million metric tons — enough to firm U.S. basis levels, strengthen PNW premiums, and narrow the spread with Brazil in a meaningful way. —Bessent downplays $10 ground beef warning, cites cyclical market pressuresTreasury Secretary says beef prices reflect long production cycles and inherited structural challenges Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to put a sharper frame around the prediction by Omaha Steaks CEO Nate Rempe — who warned that ground beef could reach $10 per pound by Q3 2026 —telling Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo on Sunday that the beef sector is uniquely exposed to long-running supply cycles and broader forces outside the administration’s immediate control. When Bartiromo asked, “He’s expecting $10 a pound ground beef. What’s your reaction?” Bessent responded by emphasizing the structural nature of the issue. “Maria, the beef market is a very specialized market. It goes in long cycles. This is the perfect storm. Again, something we inherited. … I don’t want to focus on one product. It’s a very important product.” Bessent’s comments are the latest attempt by the administration to contextualize high meat prices as the result of multi-year cattle-cycle dynamics, drought-driven herd liquidation earlier in the decade, elevated feed costs, and processing bottlenecks — rather than short-run policy choices. The Omaha Steaks warning has already rippled through political and consumer circles, coming at a moment when food affordability has become a top pressure point for the White House. Bessent’s remarks suggest the administration will continue to message that beef inflation is rooted in inherited structural imbalances and that price relief will depend on the rebuilding of U.S. cattle herds — an inherently slow process. — U.S. and Brazil push for year-end trade framework Provisional pact expected within weeks as both sides seek to reset relations The U.S. and Brazil are moving quickly toward a “provisional” tariff and trade agreement by year end, with a full deal targeted for early 2026, Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said after meeting last week with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Vieira said Rubio reaffirmed plans for a short-term framework — expected late this month or early next — that would outline a two-to-three-month path to a final pact. Brazil has submitted proposals addressing U.S. priorities and is awaiting Washington’s response. The talks mark a turn from July, when President Trump doubled tariffs on most Brazilian imports to 50%, including beef,over frustrations tied to the prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro and other trade disputes. Relations have since improved, highlighted by Trump’s meeting with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at last month’s ASEAN summit. The tariff hikes drew bipartisan pushback in Congress, especially over coffee, which Brazil supplies in large volumes. Senators Catherine Cortez Masto and Rand Paul have introduced a bill to repeal coffee tariffs, though Finance Chair Mike Crapo blocked a quick vote, warning against “one-off exemptions.” The administration has begun easing tariffs on other Latin American partners — including Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala — for goods not produced in meaningful quantities in the U.S., helping build momentum for a Brazil deal. Trump’s new tariff rollback offers limited relief for Brazilian exporters: April’s 10% duties are lifted, but steep August tariffs and quotas keep Brazilian beef and coffee at a big disadvantage. August tariffs still bite: up to 76% on out-of-quota beef. Beginning in early August, U.S. authorities imposed a complex combination of duties on Brazilian beef imports, pushing effective rates as high as 76% and slashing shipments by nearly half, according to industry data cited by importers. Under that structure:• In-quota Brazilian beef faced a 50% tariff• Out-of-quota beef faced a 76.4% tariff• Both categories are now reduced by 10 percentage points, but remain historically high By contrast, Australia now supplies most U.S. imported beef at a far lower 10% tariff rate, giving it a substantial competitive edge as American beef demand outstrips domestic supplies. ProductBaseline Tariff (Pre-April)April Tariff (Lifted Nov. 14)August Tariff (Still in Effect)Post–Nov. 14 TariffNotesBrazilian Beef (In-Quota)~0–10%+10%50%≈40%Remains the most affectedBrazilian Beef (Out-of-Quota)~10%+10%76.4%≈66%Volumes cut by ~half since AugustCoffee~0–5%+10%~40%~30%Shipments remain depressedTropical Fruits0–10%+10%~40%~30%Still subject to August surchargeOrange Juice (Finished OJ & Concentrate)0–5%+10%0% (EXEMPT)0–5% MFN onlyFully exempt from Aug tariffs; April removedOrange-Oil / Citrus By-Products0–5%+10%~40%~30%Still tariffed; not included in OJ waiverJuice bases & preparationsVaries+10%~40%~30%Not exempted Perspective: Impact on Brazilian beef to U.S. •Short-term: Modest recovery possible, but still blocked by 30–60% equivalent tariffs. Expect shipments to remain well below pre-August levels.•2025 outlook: Imports into the U.S. may rise slightly from current depressed volumes but will not regain the nearly 50% that was lost under the 76% duty regime.• 2026 outlook: Slight growth possible if further tariff negotiations progress; otherwise, expect Brazil to remain a secondary supplier behind Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico. If negotiators reach the provisional agreement this year, both sides expect a full, comprehensive pact to follow early next year. —U.S./Switzerland/Liechtenstein tariff deal cuts barriers for American beef, poultry and key farm goodsNew framework lowers U.S. tariffs to 15% while opening Alpine markets to U.S. meat, nuts, fruits and other agricultural exports The White House’s new trade framework with Switzerland and Liechtenstein delivers a sweeping overhaul of “reciprocal” tariffs — slashing U.S. duties on their exports from 39% to 15% — while securing zero tariffs or improved market access for a range of American agricultural products, including beef, poultry, bison, dairy, seafood and select fruits and nuts. Announced Nov. 14, the deal pairs tariff reductions with promised future investment of roughly $200 billion from Switzerland and $300 million from Liechtenstein, alongside commitments to streamline entry requirements for several U.S. farm products. Key agricultural market wins for the U.S. While much of the public focus has centered on pharmaceuticals — half of Switzerland’s exports — the fact sheet released by the White House highlights a strong agricultural component: Poultry, beef, and bison: tariff-rate quotas. Switzerland and Liechtenstein will introduce tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for U.S. poultry, beef, and bison, allowing in-quota shipments at lower or zero duties. These TRQs are particularly significant given the long-standing barriers and restrictive quotas that have limited U.S. meat shipments into high-value European markets. Zero Tariffs for a Range of U.S. farm products. Products that will see fully eliminated tariffs include:• Various fresh and dried nuts• Fish and seafood• Certain fruits This mirrors concessions secured earlier this year from the European Union, providing U.S. exporters opportunities to expand in affluent, high-margin Alpine markets. Regulatory easing for poultry and dairy. The agreement also commits Switzerland and Liechtenstein to:• “Address restrictive measures on U.S. poultry”• “Streamline requirements for U.S. dairy products” These steps could ease long-standing sanitary and import-licensing hurdles that have historically held down U.S. shipments of poultry meat, eggs, cheeses, and other dairy goods. What the U.S. conceded. Under the deal:• U.S. tariffs on Swiss and Liechtenstein goods will fall to a flat 15%, replacing the previous 39% “reciprocal tariff.”• Certain sensitive sectors — pharmaceuticals and semiconductors — will be capped so that combined MFN + Section 232 tariffs cannot exceed 15%.• Goods listed in Trump’s Sept. 5 executive order (coffee, bananas, cork, civil aircraft, and non-patented pharma) will be exempt from the reciprocal tariff entirely. This is the same rate applied to the European Union and avoids the “stacking” of reciprocal and MFN tariffs that previously pushed effective duties significantly higher. Investment and strategic alignment. Switzerland will facilitate $200 billion in U.S.-based investments over five years, while Liechtenstein will:• Facilitate $300 million in investment• Increase U.S. job creation by its private sector 50% over five years A third of these investments are expected by the end of 2026. Future application of reciprocal tariffs will consider whether the countries meet these commitments. The deal also includes digital trade principles — including a pledge not to impose digital services taxes — plus market access gains for U.S. medical devices and recognition of U.S. vehicle safety standards. Next steps. Negotiators expect to finalize the full Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade in early 2026, locking in tariff cuts, farm-sector access, and the investment framework. For American beef, poultry, dairy, nuts, fish, fruit and other ag exporters, the framework marks one of the largest Alpine-market openings in years — potentially reshaping U.S. meat and specialty-crop exports into high-income Switzerland and Liechtenstein. —Global markets poised for data surge after U.S. government reopensShutdown’s end clears backlog of key releases; investors eye Fed minutes and global PMIs The global economic calendar is set for a crowded and consequential week, dominated by the restart of U.S. data releases now that the federal government has reopened after a shutdown stretching from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12. With the Census Bureau, BEA, and BLS returning to normal operations, agencies are expected to publish revised release calendars early in the week. Analysts anticipate a rapid turnaround on delayed reports—including the long-awaited September employment data — as policymakers and markets scramble to re-anchor their forecasts. A major focal point arrives Wednesday with the release of the October FOMC meeting minutes. Investors will parse debate within the Federal Open Market Committee over whether inflation’s persistence above target outweighs mounting evidence of labor-market cooling ahead of the pivotal Dec. 9–10 meeting. Across the Asia-Pacific region, attention will fall on Singapore’s trade figures, Australian wage growth, and India’s flash PMI. Japan is expected to show a modest Q3 contraction, driven by weaker exports and soft housing investment, though underlying demand remains broadly resilient. Europe presents another mixed picture: Italy’s CPI is projected to hold steady, UK inflation is likely to remain elevated at 3.6%, and Eurozone CPI is forecast at 2.1%. PMI readings across France, Germany, the UK and the wider eurozone will help determine whether momentum in manufacturing and services is improving or flattening out. North America adds further weight to the week. Canada will release CPI, housing starts, and retail sales, while the U.S. will publish industrial production, housing indicators, flash PMIs, and consumer sentiment — still depressed by job-loss concerns and stubborn price pressures. Overall, global markets will confront a dense slate of signals as economies navigate uneven growth, lingering inflation, and the resumption of full U.S. statistical operations. —FAA ends shutdown-era flight cutsAir traffic staffing stabilizes, allowing full commercial operations to resume All remaining flight reductions imposed during the government shutdown will be lifted on Monday, clearing the way for a return to normal airline operations, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Transportation Department announced Sunday night. The phased flight cuts — mandated beginning Nov. 7 to ease pressure on an overstretched aviation system — had resulted in more than 5,500 cancellations and 23,000 delays nationwide. Although the restrictions were expected to deepen to as much as 10%, authorities froze them at 6% last week amid what officials called a “rapid decline” in air traffic controller absences. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the new decision reflects a steady improvement in staffing conditions across the National Airspace System following weeks of operational strain. A fresh safety review confirmed that facilities were no longer at elevated risk, allowing regulators to reverse the emergency order and restore full service. Transportation officials emphasized that the system will continue to be monitored closely, but airlines should be able to operate normal schedules starting Monday. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global equities drifted lower as markets took a breather following last week’s tech-sector stumble — a move that could either deepen or unwind when $5-trillion chipmaker Nvidia releases earnings on Wednesday. Wall Street futures were mixed early Monday. In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China -0.5%. India +0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.2%. Frankfurt -0.4%.
—Gov’t shutdown ends, but bigger fights loom
Economist Michael Drury warns Washington’s temporary deal sets up another major funding clash as fiscal, Fed, and China tensions intensify
In his latest Weekly Economic Update, Michael Drury, chief economist and author of the report, writes that the 43-day government shutdown is over “for now,” but the new funding deal only runs through Jan. 30 — meaning another, likely longer, showdown is looming. Drury says the deal was driven by urgent needs to pay the military, support the VA, prevent holiday flight disruptions, and keep SNAP benefits flowing.
Drury notes that ACA subsidy extensions remain the core political standoff heading into the midterms. He also points out that, despite political rhetoric, the U.S. deficit has been shrinking, with revenues up more than 10% year over year and the deficit-to-GDP ratio down to roughly 5.4%.
On the economy, Drury dismisses volatile new weekly ADP job figures as unreliable, citing steady continuing unemployment claims as evidence the labor market remains balanced. He adds that strict immigration limits will continue to restrain labor-force growth and lower nominal GDP.
Fed politics are also heating up, he says, with resignations — including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic — giving President Trump more influence over Board appointments and raising concerns about decreased central-bank independence.
Abroad, Drury highlights a sharp October drop in China’s fixed investment — more than 10% year over year — and notes that the Trump/Xi meeting produced little real-world progress. Trade friction is also rising with Europe and Japan, where diplomatic missteps and naval tensions are amplifying regional risk.
Overall, Drury concludes that while the shutdown ended, the underlying fiscal and geopolitical pressures “remain entirely unresolved.”
—Fed minutes in focus — Will the Fed signal a shift in rate strategy?
With December easing no longer a given, markets await clues in the Fed’s October meeting transcript
As investors enter another data-strained week, attention is turning squarely to the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its late-October meeting, which will be released Wednesday and could offer the clearest signal yet on whether policymakers are prepared to continue cutting interest rates in December.
The central bank reduced its benchmark federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00% at the late-October meeting but surprised markets by dropping earlier language that implied another cut was virtually assured. That shift has raised questions about the internal deliberations behind the move — and whether a more cautious tone is now taking hold at the Fed.
Fed speak. Several officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, have since emphasized that the bar for another cut remains “relatively high.” Their comments suggest the Fed may be recalibrating after the 43-day government shutdown, which disrupted the release of critical economic data and forced policymakers to operate with an incomplete view of the economy.
Markets recalibrate expectations. Before the Fed’s October meeting, markets had fully priced in a quarter-point cut in December. But the omission of forward-leaning guidance and public comments from Fed officials have led traders to reassess that path. With inflation showing mixed signals and the labor market still cooling, investors now expect the minutes to clarify:
• How much uncertainty the data blackout created inside the Fed
• Whether policymakers feel inflation progress has slowed
• The extent to which global conditions — including weaker growth in Europe and a different inflation trajectory in the UK — shaped their outlook
Data gaps add new complications. The shutdown delayed — and in some cases may permanently prevent — the release of several key reports, including the October jobs numbers and consumer price index. That challenges the Fed’s data-dependent approach and leaves policymakers weighing whether to move ahead with cuts in December without their full statistical toolbox.
The Fed will at least have access to the September jobs report — set for release Thursday — but that provides only a partial picture of recent labor market trends. Also due this week are housing starts, the S&P Global PMIs, and minutes from the October FOMC meeting, which may detail how officials viewed the risks of making policy decisions amid missing data.
Global backdrop. The Financial Times notes that the Fed’s stance stands in contrast with other major central banks whose inflation dynamics differ:
• The Bank of England faces stubborn services inflation
• The European Central Bank is contending with weak growth and falling price pressures
That global divergence could give the Fed more flexibility — or heighten caution — depending on how officials view international spillovers.
What to watch. Markets will be looking for any new language on:
• Confidence in inflation returning to target
• The impact of missing data on December deliberations
• Whether the Fed sees the risk-balance shifting toward growth rather than inflation
Bottom Line: With investors eager for clarity after weeks of fiscal uncertainty and disrupted reporting, Wednesday’s minutes may be the most consequential release ahead of the Fed’s December decision — even if they raise as many questions as they answer.
| AG MARKETS |
—Veteran analyst and trader: USDA’S 2026 livestock outlook is way off
Analyst warns agency is relying on backward-looking data and will miss supply by a wide margin
USDA’s decision to revise beef and pork production forecasts lower for 2026 is nothing new —”but it is also fundamentally flawed,” says a longtime livestock analyst and trader. The source says the agency continues to anchor its projections almost entirely on historical slaughter data rather than forward-looking supply indicators. As a result, the analyst predicts, “USDA is set to miss 2026 production by roughly 1 million head each in pork and beef.”
“We have already begun revising our own pork and beef production expectations higher from June 2026 forward, consistent with what we noted in late September and October,” the analyst continues. “That assessment still stands. USDA will almost certainly be forced to revise [Friday’s] and upcoming reports upward — likely dramatically — though the agency may not fully recognize this reality until January 2027 and beyond. The magnitude of that adjustment will surprise many, but it shouldn’t: USDA similarly misread current supply trends dating back to early-to-mid 2024 and has been playing catch-up ever since.”
Much of the industry chatter still insists that 2026 beef production will be extremely tight, with nothing having changed. “That argument is the same one we pushed back on in 2022, 2023 and 2024,” the analyst continued. “Yes — prices can still rally into the spring or summer of 2026. But as of fall 2025, the forecasting priority should shift toward identifying the bottom of the 2026 beef production trough, the impact of rising imports, and the prospect of growing U.S. production from mid-2026 forward. A major risk to the widely anticipated front-end market rally lies in Mexico’s expected reopening this winter. When that occurs, feedyards will shorten days on feed and move the roughly 300,000 head of cattle that have been carried with extended days for the past 18 months. That supply release will matter.”
Bottom line, according to the analyst: “If USDA continues to base its livestock WASDE outlook solely on backward-looking slaughter data, it raises a simple question: Why publish it at all?”
| WOTUS |
—New WOTUS plan expected today
EPA chief Zeldin poised to unveil sharply narrower Clean Water Act proposal
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin is expected to announce a “major policy” update this afternoon — and all signs point to the long-awaited release of the Trump administration’s new Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) proposal. The rule cleared White House review on Nov. 7, raising expectations that the administration is ready to roll out its revised interpretation of the Clean Water Act following the Supreme Court’s 2023 Sackett v. EPA decision.
The forthcoming proposal is widely expected to adopt far narrower definitions of “relatively permanent” tributaries and wetlands with a “continuous surface connection” than those used in the Biden administration’s 2023 rule — definitions that industry groups and property-rights advocates sharply criticized.
Of note: EPA’s forthcoming proposal is expected to directly address the issues highlighted in the Supreme Court’s Sackett decision, with the agency indicating in the Trump administration’s regulatory agenda that it will refine key terms such as “relatively permanent,” “continuous surface connection,” and “tributary.” The draft rule is also expected to shift more decision-making authority to states, acknowledging their on-the-ground expertise in land and water management.
EPA’s goal is to craft a definition of Waters of the U.S. that is durable, consistent, and clear. The WOTUS debate, however, has been mired in litigation and regulatory reversals since the Obama administration, with the first Trump administration and later the Biden administration each issuing their own rewrites. Even as EPA aims for a lasting standard, additional legal challenges appear all but inevitable.
Bottom Line: Internal EPA staff slides from August indicated that the new approach could remove federal protections from a broad stretch of wetlands nationwide.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices fell as loading resumed at the key Russian export hub of Novorossiysk, after a two-day suspension at the Black Sea port that had been hit by a Ukrainian attack. Brent crude futures dropped 0.7% to $63.94 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $59.63 a barrel, down 0.8% from Friday’s close.
—Chevron’s sudden exit from biodiesel lobby raises new questions for U.S. clean fuels policy
Refiner’s departure from leading biodiesel lobby highlights deepening tensions over EPA rules and renewable diesel markets
Chevron Corp., which has pledged $8 billion to expand its lower-carbon operations by 2028, has quietly withdrawn from Clean Fuels Alliance America (CFAA) — one of the most influential U.S. lobbying groups for biodiesel and renewable diesel. CFAA confirmed the exit.
The move comes as the once-hot renewable diesel boom cools. Investor enthusiasm that surged on expectations of rapid growth in low-emission diesel has faded amid policy uncertainty, weakening production economics, and the broader slowdown in renewable fuels used across trucking, rail, marine shipping, and other heavy-transport applications.
Unsettled policy landscape weighs on the sector. Producers and refiners are now bracing for a high-stakes fight over the Trump administration’s forthcoming EPA biofuel-blending rules for 2026–27, which will dictate how much renewable fuel must be blended into the national diesel pool. The most contentious issue:
•How much foreign feedstock — including imported soybean oil, used cooking oil, and other vegetable oils — will be allowed to qualify under the Renewable Fuel Standard.
Fuel refiners, including companies like Chevron that operate renewable diesel units, have been increasingly at odds with soybean growers and crushing interests who want tighter limits on foreign inputs to protect domestic demand.
A signal of broader trouble in the renewable diesel market. Chevron’s exit from CFAA is widely seen as a marker of growing discomfort inside the refining sector over:
• Slumping margins for renewable diesel
• Rising feedstock costs
• Slower-than-expected adoption in freight markets
• Mixed signals from federal agencies about the long-term direction of low-carbon fuel incentives
The departure is likely to intensify scrutiny over the administration’s next round of biofuel mandates — and raises questions about whether other major refiners may also distance themselves from the industry’s primary lobbying arm as the policy fight escalates heading into 2026.
| CONGRESS |
— GOP faces criticism for drifting Congress with no clear policy direction
A Wall Street Journal editorial argues Republicans are squandering unified government on distractions rather than governing priorities
A new Wall Street Journal editorial sharply critiques congressional Republicans for entering the post-shutdown period without any substantive governing agenda, despite holding the House, Senate, and White House. The Journal’s Editorial Board argues that instead of pursuing policy ideas that could shape the next year, GOP lawmakers are burning valuable time on “populist stunts” and low-impact investigations.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the dominant House storyline following the shutdown has been the revived focus on Jeffrey Epstein emails — an issue President Trump is highlighting as a Democratic problem, but one Republicans themselves chose to amplify through oversight investigations. The editorial notes that this topic ranks low among public concerns.
Another major focus: banning stock trading by Members of Congress and their families. The Journal acknowledges that GOP backbenchers relish the political optics of targeting Nancy Pelosi and her husband Paul, yet emphasizes there’s no evidence the Pelosis engaged in wrongdoing. More importantly, the paper argues the proposal risks deterring “good businessmen and women” from public service while doing nothing to address affordability or economic pressures facing voters.
Republicans are also leaning heavily on re-litigating past political cycles — including Democratic conduct during the 2016 Russia-collusion narrative and new inquiries into Jan. 6. The Wall Street Journal notes voters are already familiar with these issues and questions whether repeating them will yield any political benefit for the GOP.
On the policy front, the editorial argues the Republican agenda is essentially nonexistent. Despite the border now being secure, the Journal says immigration reform is off the table. Likewise, permitting reform for energy, mining, and public works has gone nowhere. Democrats, meanwhile, plan to run on health-care costs and enhanced ACA subsidies — issues the Journal warns Republicans appear unwilling to confront with a competing vision.
The editorial highlights an especially glaring omission: tax policy. Republicans have another chance to use budget reconciliation to enact tax and spending reforms without needing 60 votes in the Senate. Yet, according to the Wall Street Journal, they have “no idea” what to put in such a bill. Proposals to index capital gains for inflation, curb spending growth, or toughen welfare requirements have all been dismissed by GOP leaders for fear of political backlash.
While many Republicans privately blame their narrow House majority for avoiding tough votes, the Journal counters that this is no excuse for failing to advance ideas — even ones that may not pass — to signal what the party stands for. Instead, the board argues, most lawmakers prefer to defer entirely to President Trump, despite the limits of executive action and looming Supreme Court scrutiny over his recent orders.
The Wall Street Journal concludes that too few Republican members are seriously engaged in policymaking, preferring social-media branding to the hard work of developing and selling substantive reforms. The editorial invokes past legislators like Phil Gramm, Tom Coburn, Kevin Brady, Dave Camp, and Paul Ryan as examples of Republicans who once exercised real policy leadership.
Bottom Line: If Republicans fail to craft an affirmative agenda in the year ahead, the Journal warns, they risk entering a future Congress with diminished power and no accomplishments to show voters — “a position to pass nothing at all.”
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Kaine pushes back on Schumer critics
Virginia senator says House Democrats should “clean up their own house” amid leadership feud
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) used an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press to deliver a sharp message to House Democrats calling for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) ouster: focus on your own chamber.
Kaine defended Schumer after several House progressives — including Reps. Ro Khanna and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — questioned his leadership following the end of the record-long government shutdown. Kaine was one of eight Democratic-aligned senators who sided with Republicans on the funding deal, prompting backlash from the party’s left flank.
The Virginia Democrat said he has “a full-time job being a senator” and isn’t interested in weighing in on House leadership fights, adding that Khanna and Ocasio-Cortez should “let senators do what we need to do to keep this country moving forward.”
Khanna, in a separate Meet the Press appearance, argued that Schumer is “out of touch,” lacks “moral clarity” on issues such as Gaza, and failed to be aggressive in negotiations over Affordable Care Act subsidies — the final sticking point in reopening the government. The shutdown ended after several Democrats and one independent — including Kaine, Jeanne Shaheen, Maggie Hassan, Catherine Cortez Masto, Jacky Rosen, Dick Durbin, John Fetterman, and Angus King (I) — voted with Republicans on a deal that did not extend ACA/ObamaCare enhanced subsidies. In exchange, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) promised a future vote on the issue, though House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has made no similar commitment.
Kaine said reopening the government was the only way to create a legislative “path” — if not a guarantee — for restoring ACA subsidies and securing key provisions like full-year SNAP funding and federal worker protections. He warned that House Republicans would face political consequences in 2026 if they block health care legislation backed by bipartisan support.
Pressed on whether he might oppose future funding bills in January if Democrats fail to secure ACA subsidy extensions, Kaine declined to rule it out, saying he would not “assume failure” of ongoing negotiations.
| HPAI/BIRD FLU |
— New human bird-flu case confirmed in Washington state
Rare H5N5 infection leaves patient severely ill; officials say public risk remains low
Washington state health officials on Friday confirmed the first U.S. human case of bird flu since February — and the first known human infection with the H5N5 strain. The patient, who keeps a backyard flock of domestic birds, is “severely ill,” according to state medical epidemiologist Scott Lindquist.
Officials emphasized that the broader public faces minimal risk. “There has been no evidence of person-to-person transmission,” said Tao Sheng Kwan-Gett, chief science officer at the Washington Department of Health. “To prevent infection with avian influenza, one should avoid contact with sick or dead animals.”
The state Department of Agriculture is testing the patient’s flock for avian influenza, with results pending, while the Department of Fish and Wildlife is expanding sampling in nearby counties to check for spread among wild birds.
Public health veterinarian Beth Lipton said officials are also weighing additional testing “that might give us some clues into where the exposure happened.”
The CDC plans to conduct full genetic sequencing of the H5N5 virus. The agency said domestic poultry or wild birds are the most likely source and that close contacts of the patient are being monitored, tested, and treated as needed.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Monday… …Lake effect snow downwind from Lakes Erie and Ontario on Monday… …Upslope snow over the Northeast on Monday.
