Brazil Antitrust Watchdog Eyes U.S. Meatpacker Probe as Trump DOJ Investigation Expands
More U.S. soybean sales to China | Neiffer comments on SDRP2 fracas | Gold and silver prices surging
Link: Top Ag, Food, Trade, Tax & Ag-Energy Stories of 2025
Link: The Week Ahead, Dec. 21: Hassett Warns Tariff Ruling Could Trigger
Massive Refund Headache
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 20
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 20
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Dec. 22, 2025
UP FRONT— Brazil antitrust eyes U.S. meatpacker probe: CADE is seeking clarity from the U.S. DOJ on President Trump–ordered investigations into alleged price manipulation by foreign-owned meat processors, weighing whether parallel action is warranted in Brazil amid renewed scrutiny of global beef markets.— Trump escalates Venezuela blockade; China pushes back: The administration is pursuing a third Venezuelan oil tanker as part of a tightening blockade, drawing sharp criticism from Beijing, which accused the U.S. of violating international law and reaffirmed support for Caracas.— Tariff refund fight paused pending Supreme Court: A federal judge halted a nationwide class-action over Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, putting refund and jurisdictional questions on hold until the Supreme Court rules on the legality of the duties.— Burgum pitches 2026 energy surge: Interior Secretary Doug Burgum outlined an aggressive oil, gas, and LNG expansion as a core pillar of Trump’s economic strategy, arguing energy abundance underpins growth, exports, and geopolitical leverage.— Global markets mixed into year-end: Asian equities mostly rose while Europe dipped; U.S. markets pointed higher amid thin holiday trading and extended federal closures.— Gold and silver hit records: Precious metals surged to all-time highs as investors priced in 2026 rate cuts, geopolitical risk, and currency debasement, capping their strongest year in decades.— Growth outlook resilient despite data noise: Economist Michael Drury says shutdown-distorted data haven’t altered the 2026 growth trajectory, with policy tailwinds, productivity gains, and political incentives supporting expansion.— Strong U.S. soybean sales to China: USDA confirmed fresh daily and weekly sales, lifting 2025/26 soybean export commitments to China above 5.5 MMT.— Grain markets steady amid ample supply: Favorable Brazil weather fuels talk of a 180 MMT soybean crop; wheat trades near seasonal lows, corn remains rangebound, and EPA biofuel delays add uncertainty.— Brazil orange juice pivots to U.S.: Exports to the U.S. jumped while EU demand slumped, easing processor inventories but pressuring Brazilian grower prices.— SDRP Stage 1 vs. Stage 2 gap underscored: Paul Neiffer’s analysis shows Stage 1 consistently delivers higher disaster payments than Stage 2, which often pays nothing even when insurance triggers.— Oil prices jump on tanker interception: Crude rose over 2% as the U.S. blockade of Venezuelan oil and renewed Russia–Ukraine tensions revived supply-risk premiums.— Australia to reserve gas for domestic market: Canberra will require LNG exporters to divert up to 25% of new production domestically from 2027 to curb prices and avert east-coast shortages.— China slaps duties on EU dairy: Beijing imposed provisional tariffs of up to 43% on selected EU dairy products, escalating trade tensions and reshaping global ag flows.— EU floats EV price floors: Brussels signaled minimum pricing as a possible alternative to tariffs on Chinese EVs as talks with Beijing continue.— Shutdown risk resurfaces in Congress: Appropriators sketched a topline FY26 framework, but Democrats and Republicans remain at odds, keeping a late-January shutdown in play.— Washington by the numbers: National Journal tallies razor-thin House margins, record retirements, long shutdowns, heavy court intervention, and rising tariff revenues in Trump’s first 11 months.— Ultra-processed foods linked to brain health risks: New research ties high consumption to faster cognitive decline, reinforcing dietary warnings.— Maersk cautiously tests Red Sea route: A single successful transit signals reassessment, not a return to regular Suez Canal shipping.— Weather watch: Excessive rain risks in Northern California, heavy lake-effect snow in the Northeast, and mixed winter precipitation across parts of the Appalachians. TOP STORIES —Brazil antitrust watchdog eyes U.S. meatpacker probe as Trump DOJ investigation expandsCADE seeks clarity from U.S. authorities amid allegations that foreign-owned processors may be manipulating beef prices, raising cross-border competition concerns Brazil’s antitrust authority, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), is preparing to contact the U.S. Department of Justice to determine the scope of an American investigation into potential anticompetitive conduct by meatpackers operating in the United States. The move follows a formal request from Izalci Lucas, who urged CADE to examine whether alleged cartel behavior abroad could harm Brazil’s economy. According to sources cited by Valor, CADE’s General Superintendence will first seek details from U.S. authorities before deciding whether to open its own inquiry. In his letter, Lucas said Donald Trump directed the Justice Department to investigate foreign-owned meat processors for possible cartelization, price-fixing, and price manipulation. Trump has argued it is suspicious that U.S. cattle prices have fallen while beef prices remain elevated. Industry groups dispute that claim. The Meat Institute, which represents more than 350 companies, said meatpackers have been operating at losses for over a year and that transactions are transparent. It argues that despite high retail beef prices, producers are squeezed by record cattle costs — a situation expected to persist into 2026. Brazilian firms feature prominently in the U.S. protein market. JBS is the largest meat producer in the United States, while National Beef — owned by Marfrig — is the fourth largest and among the most profitable. Lucas also cited CADE’s 2024 approval of Minerva’s acquisition of Marfrig assets, which came with conditions reflecting competition concerns, including adjustments to non-compete clauses and required divestments. Of note: Legal experts note that while a request from a lawmaker carries weight, Brazil’s competition law fast-tracks only submissions from congressional committees into formal administrative inquiries. Still, the episode revives a familiar theme: the meat sector has faced congressional scrutiny before, notably in 2005, when complaints led to one of CADE’s earliest cease-and-desist agreements. For now, CADE’s next step hinges on what the Justice Department reveals about the U.S. probe — and whether alleged conduct abroad warrants parallel action at home.—Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of the Navy John Phelan will make an announcement at 4:30 pm ET today, the White House said. Trump is stepping up his Venezuela crackdown by pursuing a third oil tanker, intensifying a blockade meant to cut off a crucial cash lifeline for President Nicolas Maduro’s government. Meanwhile, China sharply criticized the United States for seizing oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, publicly aligning itself with Caracas as tensions with Washington escalate. At a regular press briefing in Beijing on Monday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said the U.S. practice of intercepting vessels “grossly violates international law” and accused Washington of engaging in unilateralism and bullying that infringes on other countries’ sovereignty and security. Beijing, he said, opposes actions that undermine the legitimate rights of other states. The comments come amid a deepening maritime blockade that the Trump administration hopes will choke off a critical source of revenue and further isolate the government of Nicolás Maduro. China emphasized that Venezuela has the right to independently develop mutually beneficial cooperation with other countries and said Beijing supports Caracas in defending its legitimate interests. Most Venezuelan crude exports are shipped to China by state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela SA, often through intermediaries using so-called “dark-fleet” tankers — aging vessels with opaque ownership structures that transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela, as well as from Iran and Russia. Beijing’s remarks underscore its broader opposition to U.S. sanctions enforcement and its willingness to stand with Venezuela as Washington intensifies pressure on the Maduro government. —Tariff refund fight put on ice as lower court waits for Supreme Court signalFederal judge halts nationwide class-action over Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, deferring both refund questions and jurisdictional fights until the high court rules A federal district judge has paused a proposed nationwide class-action lawsuit seeking refunds of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), opting to wait for an imminent Supreme Court of the United States decision that will determine whether those duties were lawful in the first place. In a Dec. 17 order, Judge Rudolph Contreras stayed Smirk & Dagger Games et al. v. Trumpuntil the Supreme Court resolves Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, the case testing whether Trump’s “emergency” tariffs on China and the European Union exceeded his statutory authority. The Justice Department argued — and the judge agreed — that moving forward now would risk wasting judicial resources, given the substantial overlap between the class-action claims and the issues already before the high court. The pause means that potentially contentious questions about whether importers can proceed as a single nationwide class — and whether courts would allow refunds to be adjudicated collectively — will not be addressed until after the Supreme Court rules. Plaintiffs consented to the delay, allowing the stay to be granted quickly. The Smirk & Dagger case stands out among hundreds of tariff refund suits because it seeks relief for all importers subject to the China and EU IEEPA tariffs, rather than refunds for individual companies. Even so, it would not cover Trump’s other emergency tariffs, including duties tied to fentanyl enforcement against Mexico and Canada or the broader “reciprocal” tariffs applied to most U.S. trading partners. Of note: Lower courts — including the Court of International Trade, the D.C. District Court, and the Federal Circuit — have already found the IEEPA tariffs unlawful. But the Supreme Court’s forthcoming decision, widely expected in early 2026, will be decisive not only on the legality of the tariffs, but also on where refund challenges properly belong. The justices could rule that the Court of International Trade has exclusive jurisdiction, potentially forcing cases like Smirk & Dagger out of regional district courts altogether. Until then, both sides — and the courts — are effectively in a holding pattern, awaiting guidance that will determine whether the tariff refund fight moves forward, and in what forum. —Burgum pitches 2026 energy surge as pillar of Trump economic strategyInterior secretary touts expanded oil and gas production, AI-driven infrastructure gains, and pushback against environmental litigation Doug Burgum laid out an aggressive energy-expansion vision for 2026 under President Donald Trump, arguing that ramped-up U.S. oil and natural gas output is central to economic growth, geopolitical leverage, and price stability. Speaking on FOX Business Network with Maria Bartiromo, Burgum emphasized boosting liquid fuels and LNG production to strengthen exports to Pacific allies such as Japan, framing energy abundance as both a revenue engine and a strategic tool. Burgum also addressed concerns over the electricity demands of AI data centers, contending they can upgrade local grids and help lower regional energy costs by internalizing infrastructure investments — countering claims that they are simply energy drains. On Alaska policy, Burgum defended oil development in the National Petroleum Reserve, including projects involving ConocoPhillips, while criticizing environmental lawsuits that have delayed drilling. He suggested some opposition may be driven by foreign-sourced funding rather than environmental protection, sharpening the administration’s narrative that litigation is undermining U.S. energy security. Overall, Burgum framed expanded domestic energy production as a core Trump-era priority to insulate the U.S. economy from global shocks, restrain energy costs, and reinforce national sovereignty — positioning Interior as a central player in executing that agenda heading into 2026. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes point to firmer openings. In Asia, Japan +1.8%. Hong Kong +0.4%. China +0.7%. India +0.8%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt flat.
—U.S. gov’t offices will be closed Dec. 24-26 with President Donald Trump ordering the extra two days of a break for government workers. Markets will trade abbreviated hours on Wednesday and will be closed Thursday, returning for a normal-length trading day on Friday. But the holiday will see minimal trading volume in several markets either side of Christmas.
—Gold and silver climb to records as rate-cut bets and global tensions fuel haven demand
Precious metals cap their strongest year in decades as investors hedge against geopolitical risk, looser monetary policy, and currency debasement
Gold and silver surged to new all-time highs, extending what is shaping up to be their strongest annual performance since 1979, as investors piled into safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and growing expectations for easier U.S. monetary policy.
Gold climbed more than 1.5% to an intraday record above $4,380 an ounce, while silver jumped as much as 3.4%, approaching $70 an ounce. Both metals are benefiting from a powerful mix of macro and geopolitical drivers: traders are increasingly pricing in two U.S. interest-rate cuts in 2026 by the Federal Reserve System, while President Donald Trump has openly pushed for looser monetary conditions. Lower rates tend to support precious metals because they do not generate yield.
Geopolitics has added further momentum. Heightened tensions — including the Trump administration’s intensified oil blockade against Venezuela and Ukraine’s first attack on a Russian oil tanker in the Mediterranean — have reinforced gold and silver’s appeal as hedges against global instability.
Gold is up nearly 70% this year, underpinned by sustained central-bank buying and steady inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Investor demand has also been fueled by the so-called “debasement trade,” reflecting concerns about rising sovereign debt, long-term currency erosion, and the independence of central banks. Bloomberg data show gold-backed ETF holdings have risen in all but one month this year.
Market participants say positioning ahead of expected rate cuts has been amplified by thin year-end liquidity. Softer U.S. inflation data and signs of slowing job growth in November reinforced expectations for easier policy in 2026.
Other precious metals joined the rally. Palladium rose more than 4%, while platinum surged above $2,000 an ounce for the first time since 2008, extending an eight-day winning streak. Platinum is up roughly 125% this year, supported by tightening supplies in London, robust Chinese demand, and precautionary stockpiling in the U.S. amid tariff risks. Copper is also up almost 40% this year.
Looking ahead, several banks see further upside. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts gold could reach $4,900 an ounce in 2026, citing strong central-bank demand, growing ETF participation, and increased competition for limited physical supply. Analysts also point to new sources of demand — including corporate treasuries and stablecoin issuers — as broadening the investor base and adding resilience to the market.
By late morning in London, spot gold was trading near $4,413 an ounce, silver around $68.9, while the U.S. dollar weakened modestly — another tailwind for precious metals as the year draws to a close.
—Data deluge fails to dent growth outlook as policy tailwinds build for 2026
Despite noisy inflation and labor data distorted by the government shutdown, momentum remains solid heading into 2026, with fading policy headwinds, productivity gains, and political incentives tilting the balance toward continued growth
In his Weekly Economic Update, economist Michael Drury argues that the long-anticipated wave of economic data released in mid-December did little to change the underlying U.S. growth narrative. While headline CPI came in well below expectations and sparked skepticism, Drury attributes the weakness primarily to methodological stopgaps caused by missing data during the government shutdown rather than manipulation or a fundamental disinflation shock. Even allowing for later revisions, he concludes the inflation miss is economically marginal and unlikely to alter GDP, market behavior, or policy expectations in a meaningful way.
Drury sees the U.S. economy entering 2026 running modestly above potential, though potential growth itself has been reduced by immigration reform. Nominal GDP is expected to hold in the low-4% range, implying mid-2% inflation and roughly 2% real growth. Crucially, he argues that the policy drags that weighed on 2025 — tariffs and immigration changes — have largely already hit, while new tailwinds are emerging. These include three recent Federal Reserve rate cuts, fiscal stimulus from the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” a weaker dollar aiding exporters, lower-than-expected energy costs, and a broadly pro-business deregulatory stance supported by unified government. Political incentives ahead of the midterm elections further reinforce the bias toward growth support if conditions soften.
On the labor market, Drury downplays headline volatility. Payroll growth, once adjusted for one-off federal buyouts, has averaged roughly 55,000 jobs per month, with virtually all net gains coming from healthcare — a trend he expects to persist due to demographics and program support. Wage growth appears strikingly stable at about 0.29% per month across multiple horizons, and when combined with a modestly longer workweek, implies stronger income growth in the fourth quarter than earlier in the year. Consumer spending is therefore expected to remain resilient in early 2026, even as AI-driven investment provides an additional growth pillar.
The report is more skeptical that tariffs will prove transitory. Drury contends that if tariffs do not immediately trigger recession, politicians are likely to return to them as a durable revenue source, regardless of midterm outcomes — much as Trump-era China tariffs persisted under Biden and were later expanded. At roughly $300 billion annually, current tariffs are described as only a small down payment relative to persistent fiscal deficits, suggesting further increases are likely. Even so, productivity gains, falling unit labor costs, and solid profit margins underpin a constructive outlook for business investment and employment into 2026.
| AG MARKETS |
—USDA daily export sale: 396,000 MT soybeans to China. Of the total, 330,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year,and 66,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
—Another round of U.S. soybean sales confirmed by USDA. The weekly Export Sales report from USDA contained activity for China for 2025/26. For the week ended Dec. 4 there were net sales of 2,000 metric tons of wheat, 169,500 metric tons of sorghum, 1,010,969 metric tons of soybeans, and 15,514 running bales of upland cotton. For pork and beef, there was no activity reported for beef but there were net sales of 3,145 metric tons of pork for 2025 and cancelations of 1,588 metric tons for 2026. As for soybeans, USDA said that 594,000 metric tons of sales were announced via the daily export sales reporting system for the period covered by today’s report, meaning that there were 416,969 metric tons of sales that took place that did not trigger any reporting requirements. With total commitments as of Dec. 4 at 4,025,969 metric tons, the daily sales announced since that time should bring export commitments on U.S. soybeans to China to 5,535,969 metric tons for 2025/26 and another 66,000 metric tons via the daily sales announcement today.
—Markets show little change as global grain supplies remain adequate to surplus. Favorable weather in Brazil has some projecting a 180 MMT soybean crop, while wheat trades near seasonal lows and corn remains range bound. EPA delays on biofuel guidance add policy uncertainty. With roughly 50% of U.S. corn and 60% of soybeans sold, producers are holding inventory into an expanding supply outlook after limited price protection during the new-crop soybean rally.
—Brazil’s orange juice exports pivot toward U.S. as EU demand slumps
Strong U.S. import growth contrasts with a sharp pullback from Europe, easing pressure on Brazil’s supply chain but weighing on grower prices at home
Brazil’s orange juice export flows are diverging sharply across major markets in the early months of the 2025/26 crop year, according to data from Comex Stat/MDIC analyzed by Cepea. From July through November 2025, shipments to the United States climbed to 162.8 thousand tonnes (frozen concentrated orange juice equivalent at 66° Brix), a 25.9% increase from the same period last season. By contrast, exports to the European Union — historically Brazil’s largest destination — fell to 160.6 thousand tonnes, a 25.5% decline year over year.
Cepea researchers say the shift reflects a combination of strong juice quality from the 2025/26 crop and softer European demand, allowing Brazil’s processing industry to rebuild inventories. While healthier stock levels support exporters operationally, they are also pressuring prices paid to growers, especially as demand growth fails to keep pace with supply.
The impact is already visible in Brazil’s domestic market. Between Dec. 15 and 18, fresh oranges sold on the tree averaged BRL 46.58 per 40.8-kilogram box, an 11.45% drop from the prior week, underscoring how export dynamics are feeding back into farmgate pricing.
Overall, the data point to a rebalancing year for Brazil’s citrus sector: stronger reliance on the U.S. market, weakening European pull, and growing near-term price pressure for producers despite favorable crop conditions.
| FARM POLICY |
—SDRP Stage 1 vs. Stage 2: Why harvest price matters more than farmers realized
Paul Neiffer’s analysis shows Stage 1 consistently delivers higher per-acre payments than Stage 2 — and in many cases, Stage 2 pays nothing at all
Paul Neiffer of the Farm CPA Report breaks down why the payment mechanics of USDA’s Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) produce dramatically different outcomes under Stage 1 versus Stage 2 — even when the farmer barely triggers a crop insurance indemnity. Link
The key distinction is pricing methodology. SDRP Stage 1 uses the harvest price, while Stage 2 relies on the spring projected price. That seemingly technical difference has major real-world consequences for per-acre payments.
To illustrate, Neiffer walks through a detailed Illinois corn example for the 2023 crop year:
APH: 220 bushels
Coverage level: 85%
Spring price: $5.91
Harvest price: $4.88
Using the spring price, the farmer’s original crop insurance guarantee was $1,105.17 per acre. Because harvest prices fell, the farmer needed a yield of 226.26 bushels to trigger just $1 per acre in crop insurance proceeds.
Despite collecting only $1 of insurance:
•Under SDRP Stage 1, which uses the lower harvest price, the farmer would receive about $53.21 per acre after accounting for premium reimbursement and the 35% payment factor.
•Under SDRP Stage 2, the same yield is recalculated using the higher spring price, pushing “harvest revenue” above the updated SDRP guarantee — resulting in zero payment.
In short: Stage 1 pays $53.21; Stage 2 pays nothing, even though the farmer technically triggered crop insurance.
Neiffer extends the analysis across Illinois crops using representative APHs:
Corn: 220 bpa
Soybeans: 65 bpa
Soft Red Wheat: 100 bpa
The resulting table (with estimated premiums) shows that farmers who barely collected crop insurance are consistently far better off under Stage 1. In many cases — especially at higher coverage levels — Stage 2 produces no payment at all, while Stage 1 still generates meaningful relief.
We previously cited additional analysis by Dave Janson and Katie Voinorovich of Strategic Farm Marketing that reinforces the problem. Their work finds that SDRP Stage 2 is mathematically incapable of paying in many scenarios. Link
Neiffer’s bottom line is blunt and unequivocal: SDRP Stage 1 always pays more than Stage 2, and for a significant share of producers, Stage 2 effectively nullifies disaster assistance altogether — despite real revenue losses and even triggered crop insurance claims.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Monday: Oil prices jump as U.S. intercepts Venezuelan tanker, geopolitical risks resurface
Crude benchmarks climbed more than 2% as Washington’s blockade of Venezuelan oil and renewed Russia/Ukraine tensions revived supply-disruption fears, even as global markets remain weighed down by oversupply
Oil prices rose sharply Monday after the U.S. intercepted an oil tanker in international waters off Venezuela, adding fresh uncertainty around crude supply. Brent climbed $1.31, 2.17%, to $61.78 a barrel, while WTI gained $1.25, or 2.2%, to $57.77.
Analysts said markets had previously been complacent about Venezuelan risks, but that sentiment is shifting as enforcement tightens. Giovanni Staunovo of UBS noted growing concern that the U.S. embargo could disrupt exports, even though Venezuelan crude represents only about 1% of global supply.
The price rebound comes despite ample output from the U.S. and OPEC+, which has largely capped rallies and kept Brent near the mid-$60s in the second half of 2025. Recent price softness reflected oversupply worries, making Monday’s move notable in what analysts still describe as a bearish market.
Support also came from escalating geopolitical tensions. The U.S. Coast Guard is pursuing another tanker near Venezuela — potentially the third such operation in under two weeks — following Donald Trump’s declaration of a “total and complete” blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil. Separately, reports of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian “shadow fleet” vessel in the Mediterranean added to risk premiums.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine continued, with U.S., European, and Ukrainian officials meeting in Florida. While U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said talks were productive, a top aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled that revised proposals have not improved prospects for peace — keeping geopolitical uncertainty firmly in play for energy markets.
—Australia moves to ring-fence gas supply as East Coast shortfall looms
From 2027, Canberra will require LNG exporters to divert up to 25% of new gas production to the domestic market to curb prices and avert forecast shortages
Australia will mandate that natural gas exporters reserve between 15% and 25% of new production for domestic use, a significant intervention aimed at easing high prices and addressing an expected supply shortfall on the country’s populous east coast. The policy will take effect in 2027 and apply only to new supply contracts signed from this week, leaving existing agreements untouched.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the final reservation level will be set after a consultation process in 2026, emphasizing the goal of supporting the domestic economy and Australia’s energy transition while maintaining its role as a reliable regional supplier.
Australia is the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, but all 10 export terminals are located in western or northern regions, far from the east coast where gas fields are depleting. According to the Australian Energy Market Operator, east-coast gas demand is expected to outstrip supply from 2028, prompting federal action.
The measure will primarily affect Queensland’s three LNG export projects — Australia Pacific LNG, Gladstone LNG, and QCLNG — and their major shareholders, including ConocoPhillips, Shell Plc, Origin Energy Ltd, and Santos Ltd.
Western Australia already operates a similar regime requiring 15% domestic reservation, though it lacks pipeline connections to the east. Other options — such as building gas import terminals in Victoria or reversing legacy pipelines — remain costly or politically sensitive, underscoring why Canberra opted for export controls as the fastest lever to address the looming gas crunch.
| TRADE POLICY |
—China slaps up to 43% duties on EU dairy in escalating trade dispute
Beijing targets subsidized cheese and cream imports after probe, adding pressure to already strained China/EU trade ties
China has imposed preliminary duties of as much as 43% on selected dairy imports from the European Union, marking another escalation in its tit-for-tat trade conflict with the bloc, according to Bloomberg.
China’s Commerce Ministry said the move follows an anti-subsidy investigation that found certain EU dairy products — including some fresh and processed cheeses and cream — benefited from government support. The levies are being collected in the form of deposits while the investigation continues.
Among the companies affected, French dairy producer Fromarsac faces duties of about 30%, while units linked to Dutch cheesemaker FrieslandCampina were hit with the highest rate of 43%. Neither company immediately responded to requests for comment.
Though narrowly targeted, the dairy action risks deepening tensions between European Union and China. The move comes after the EU voted last year to impose tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese electric vehicles and launched broader investigations into state subsidies across multiple sectors.
Beijing first opened the dairy probe in 2024 and extended it by six months in August, citing the case’s complexity. The dairy duties follow China’s recent decision to impose anti-dumping levies of 5% to 20% on EU pork imports, partially easing tougher preliminary measures announced earlier.
The EU has challenged the dairy investigation by seeking consultations through the World Trade Organization. Meanwhile, EU cheese exports in 2025 have been led by shipments to the U.S., UK, and Japan, underscoring the potential commercial impact if China — a key market — further restricts access.
Market impacts: Reports note that while China imported roughly $589 million of EU dairy products last year, it is expected to increase purchases from New Zealand and Australia, potentially offering marginal gains for U.S. dairy exporters. The bigger question is how aggressively EU suppliers discount product into alternative markets.
—EU floats price floors as alternative to tariffs on Chinese EVs
Brussels suggests minimum pricing could ease tensions as talks with Beijing continue and trade retaliation spreads across food and drink sectors
The European Union has signaled that minimum prices on Chinese electric vehicles could serve as a “viable alternative” to tariffs, following recent talks with China over duties imposed on Chinese EV imports. European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill said discussions have shown early promise. “In recent weeks we have had a first positive potential for a price undertaking in the battery electric vehicles area,” Gill told reporters, adding that engagement is continuing at the expert level without a clear timeline for resolution.
The comments come after the European Commission imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, a move that has prompted Beijing to retaliate. China has launched investigations into EU brandy and pork, and recently announced provisional duties on several EU dairy products following a separate probe (see previous item).
China has not publicly commented on the EV pricing discussions. For now, both sides remain in talks as the dispute broadens beyond autos into sensitive agricultural and consumer goods sectors, raising the stakes for a negotiated outcome.
| CONGRESS |
—Spending framework emerges as appropriators race the CR clock
Topline deal signals lower outlays than a full-year CR, but details — and GOP buy-in — still pending
House and Senate appropriators have reached a tentative agreement on overall spending limits for the remaining nine Fiscal Year 2026 appropriations bills, setting the stage for a late-January sprint to finish work before the current continuing resolution (CR) expires.
Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) struck what Cole described as a “final” topline framework, though the specific dollar figures have not yet been released.
Republicans have also not fully weighed in, leaving questions about internal support.
| Senate Democrats are again signaling a willingness to risk a government shutdown as tensions with Donald Trump intensify ahead of the Jan. 30 funding deadline, according to The Hill.Democrats walked away from a five-bill appropriations package before the Christmas recess that could have funded up to 85–90% of the government through September. They cited the Trump administration’s last-minute move to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research as undermining trust that the White House will respect congressional spending decisions. Republicans involved in the talks say Democrats are deliberately preserving leverage. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D>) said Democrats appeared unwilling to finalize the deal even absent the climate-research dispute. The failure to advance the package — or even agree on amendment votes — delays Senate action into January and increases shutdown odds. Some Republicans warn the Senate is drifting toward another standoff, while Democrats privately acknowledge pressure from their left flank to force concessions. Many Democrats view the fall shutdown as politically successful, reinforcing their willingness to hold firm. Beyond funding, Democrats are tying talks to broader demands, including limits on potential military action against Venezuela, release of unclassified Epstein-related documents, and an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies championed by Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). GOP leaders have floated a yearlong continuing resolution, but Democrats fear another partisan stopgap. For now, lawmakers left town with no deal — and another shutdown firmly back in play. |
Early indications suggest the GOP agreement would hold total discretionary spending below the level of a full-year CR across all 12 bills — including the three already enacted. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that discretionary spending under a full-year CR would total about $1.66 trillion, a benchmark appropriators appear intent on beating.
Cole disclosed the deal over the weekend, calling it a “strong fiscal framework” that aligns with Donald Trump’s push to rein in what he characterizes as “runaway, Beltway-driven spending.” Lawmakers are aiming to finalize the remaining bills before Jan. 30, when the current CR expires.
Under Cole’s approach, the remaining bills would move in three “minibus” packages:
• First tranche: Commerce-Justice-Science; Energy-Water; Interior-Environment.
• Second tranche: Financial Services; Homeland Security; State-Foreign Operations — traditionally the most contentious measures.
• Final tranche: Defense; Labor-HHS-Education; Transportation-HUD — the largest and politically heaviest package.
Whether that timeline holds remains uncertain. Some lawmakers are already signaling openness to another short-term CR if negotiations bog down, raising the risk that the Jan. 30 deadline slips despite the new framework.
—Washington by the numbers: A turbulent first 11 months. From razor-thin House margins and record retirements to tariff windfalls, blocked executive actions, and a sharp swing in President Trump’s approval, the past year in Washington has been defined by institutional strain and political volatility. Here’s how the tally accordsing to National Journal:
A Congress built on fragility. The 119th Congress opened with House Republicans holding just a five-seat majority, marking the third straight Congress with a single-digit margin — a rarity not seen since the 1700s. Instability has only grown since then. Forty-six lawmakers have already announced retirements or bids for other offices, surpassing the total departures of the previous Congress, with more decisions expected after the holidays.
Legislative productivity has been limited. The House logged just 105 voting days, the fewest for a first session in at least two decades outside the Covid-disrupted year of 2021. As of now, 34 bills have been signed into law, only marginally higher than the comparable point last Congress — despite unified Republican control this time.
Shutdowns, procedural warfare, and the courts. The fall brought a 43-day government shutdown, the longest on record, underscoring dysfunction between the chambers and within the GOP itself. Procedural tools were used aggressively: four discharge petitions forced votes, an extraordinary number given that only seven such petitions have produced laws since 1935 — three of them in just the past year and a half.
The judiciary has remained a major counterweight to the White House. Of 221 executive orders signed by Donald Trump, courts have blocked 149 executive actions, allowed 102 to stand, and are still considering 107 pending cases, according to lawsuit trackers.
Executive power and the federal workforce. The Senate has moved swiftly on personnel, confirming 341 executive-branch nominees, reflecting an aggressive push to staff the administration. At the same time, the federal workforce has been shrinking: 212,840 civil servants have left government service this year, amid 1.1 million total layoffs across the broader economy.
Inflation, tariffs, and the economy. Inflation continued to cool over the year, with CPI running at 3.0% in January and easing to 2.7% by November. Meanwhile, tariffs have become a major revenue stream, with $236.2 billion collected from January through November, reinforcing the central role of trade policy in the administration’s economic strategy.
Politics, wealth, and public opinion. Financially, the Trump family saw “at least $4 billion” in proceeds and paper wealth this year, according to the Wall Street Journal. Politically, however, the arc has bent downward. Trump began his term with a +12 net approval rating in Nate Silver’s polling average, but now sits at –13, highlighting how governing turbulence has eroded early goodwill.
Bottom Line: As National Journal’s tally shows, the first 11 months have been marked less by legislative output than by structural stress — narrow majorities, historic shutdowns, expansive executive action, and an increasingly interventionist judiciary — all against a backdrop of easing inflation and politically consequential tariff revenues.
| FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—Ultra-processed foods may be taking a toll on the brain
New research links heavy consumption to cognitive decline and higher dementia risk, adding urgency to dietary warnings
A growing body of research is strengthening concerns that diets high in ultra-processed foods may harm brain health, potentially accelerating cognitive decline and increasing the risk of dementia.
The latest study, drawing on long-term dietary and health data, found that people who consumed a higher share of calories from ultra-processed foods — such as packaged snacks, sugary cereals, processed meats, frozen meals, and soft drinks — experienced faster declines in memory and executive function compared with those who ate more minimally processed foods. Even modest substitutions appeared to matter: replacing a portion of ultra-processed foods with whole or lightly processed alternatives was associated with measurable cognitive benefits.
Researchers point to several mechanisms that may explain the link. Ultra-processed foods are often high in added sugars, refined carbohydrates, unhealthy fats, and sodium, while being low in fiber, micronutrients, and anti-inflammatory compounds. This nutritional profile can promote chronic inflammation, insulin resistance, vascular damage, and disruptions to the gut microbiome — all of which have been increasingly tied to brain aging and neurodegenerative disease.
The findings are consistent with earlier studies that connected ultra-processed food intake to higher risks of obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, depression, and overall mortality. What’s new is the growing evidence that the brain may be particularly vulnerable, especially over long periods of exposure.
Importantly, researchers emphasize that the results do not suggest occasional consumption is dangerous. Rather, the concern centers on diets where ultra-processed foods make up a large and routine share of daily calories — a pattern that has become common in the U.S. and other advanced economies.
Public-health experts say the study reinforces existing dietary advice: prioritize whole foods such as fruits, vegetables, legumes, whole grains, fish, and unprocessed meats, while limiting packaged and industrially formulated products. As populations age and dementia rates rise, the research adds to the case that diet is not just a matter of metabolic health — but cognitive resilience as well.
| TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS |
—Maersk tests Red Sea transit but stops short of Suez return
Successful voyage through Bab el-Mandeb signals cautious reassessment, not a network shift
One of the world’s largest container carriers has quietly tested the Red Sea route — but says it is far from ready to restore regular Suez Canal transits. According to American Shipper, Maersk confirmed that the Singapore-flagged Maersk Sebarok, a 6,500-TEU vessel operating on the MECL service linking India with the U.S. East and Gulf coasts, successfully transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea on Dec. 18–19.
The voyage marks Maersk’s first confirmed Red Sea transit since major container and tanker operators diverted traffic in early 2024 following repeated Houthi attacks on commercial shipping tied to the Gaza conflict. But the company stressed that the passage was an isolated test, not the start of a broader return to the Suez route. “Whilst this is a significant step forward, it does not mean that we are at a point where we are considering a wider East-West network change back to the trans-Suez corridor,” Maersk said in a statement.
Since the attacks began, carriers have largely rerouted ships around the Cape of Good Hope — adding as much as two weeks to Asia-Europe and Asia-U.S. voyages and raising operating costs. Recently, however, falling diesel prices have led some analysts to argue that the longer African route can be more economical than paying Suez Canal tolls.
Maersk said it will continue to monitor security conditions and may pursue a “stepwise” approach toward additional Red Sea and Suez sailings if safety thresholds for crews, cargo and vessels can be met. For now, the company emphasized that no further trans-Suez voyages are scheduled.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern California on Monday… …Heavy snow downwind from Lake Ontario and New England… …Rain/freezing rain possible over the Pennsylvania and Central Appalachians.
