China Bypasses U.S. Soybeans in 2025/26 as IEEPA Tariffs Drive Up U.S. Farm Input Costs
New NDSU report finds Beijing could avoid American soybeans for an entire marketing year while U.S. farmers face higher fertilizer prices under emergency tariff regime
North Dakota State University’s Agricultural Trade Monitor (October 2025) warns that China could potentially bypass U.S. soybeans entirely in the 2025/26 marketing year — a first in modern trade history — if it continues to pay modest premiums for Brazilian and South American supplies. Link to report
The report estimates that Brazil and other exporters could ship roughly 108 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans to China, covering about 97% of its import needs, with the remainder met from China’s own stockpiles.
While bypassing U.S. supplies would come at higher cost and logistical strain, NDSU economists note that Beijing’s decision “is a strategic choice beyond agriculture,” influenced more by geopolitical positioning than by market fundamentals. The critical period will come in December–January, when Brazilian supplies tighten — historically the window when U.S. soybeans filled the gap.
At the same time, the study finds that President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, imposed in April 2025 on imported agricultural inputs, have sharply disrupted fertilizer trade flows and increased costs for U.S. producers. Imports of nitrogen and phosphate products subject to tariffs dropped 23% and 47%, respectively, while imports from non-tariff or USMCA partners surged. As a result, U.S. farmers now pay up to $34/MT more for DAP, $32/MT more for MAP, and $11/MT more for urea than Canadian farmers.
Although global supply-demand factors — not U.S. policy — remain the main driver of 2025’s fertilizer price surge, NDSU concludes the tariffs have “amplified regional price spreads and constrained importer flexibility,” leaving U.S. producers doubly burdened by both global inflation and domestic policy costs.
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