China Extends Beef Import Investigation Into 2026
U.S. producer prices rebound in September on surge in food and energy costs
Link: Trump to Visit China in April After ‘Very Good’ Call with Xi on
Taiwan, Ukraine, Soybeans
Link: Farm Sector Sounds Alarm as Losses Deepen, Farm Bureau’s Newton Warns
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 21
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 21
Today’s Updates:
TRADE & POLICY
— USDA’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade will not be issued today
— Beijing prolongs beef probe as domestic supplies swell
— Bessent says Trump likely to name new Fed chair before Christmas
— Brazil faces ongoing strain as many exports still hit by full 50% U.S. tariff
— Washington presses Brussels to ease tech rules in bid to unlock tariff relief
— Carney signals shift away from U.S. as Canada accelerates pivot to Europe and Asia
— EU moves toward permanent pesticide approvals, sparking safety backlash
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global markets paused ahead of U.S. data
— Equities yesterday
— U.S. producer prices rebound in September on surge in food and energy costs
— U.S. retail sales rises less than expected at four-month low
— Rate cut momentum builds at the Fed
AG MARKETS
— Upland cotton, pork remained only U.S. export sales activity to China in early Oct.
— USDA citrus buy offers limited relief for struggling growers
— Canada’s 2025–26 crop outlook: Bigger harvests, softer prices, rising stocks
— Agriculture markets yesterday
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices Tuesday eased as supply concerns outweigh Russia risks
— Monday: Oil prices recover as traders reassess Fed path and peace prospects
— CARB faces pressure to speed E15 rollout — but major acceleration still unlikely
— OMB wraps review of DOE’s revised EV fuel economy rule
— Report: RFS rewrite pushes biggest market shock to 2027
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Democrats’ rural reboot: Beshear says Trump handed the party an opening
FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY
— Trump’s beef-price push collides with relentless U.S. appetite for protein
— Britain targets sugary milk drinks with new tax rules
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Rain changing to locally heavy snow w/severe weather in Deep South
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 25, 2025
Up Front — CHINA BEEFS UP SAFEGUARD PROBE: Beijing extends its beef import investigation to Jan. 26, 2026, as domestic supplies swell and officials weigh possible safeguard steps without provoking major suppliers.— PPI REBOUNDS ON FOOD & ENERGY: U.S. producer prices rose 0.3% in September, led by a spike in meats, corn and gasoline, while services stayed flat and year-on-year PPI held at 2.7%.— FED CHAIR SEARCH NEARS ENDGAME: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Trump is likely to pick a new Fed chair before Christmas, with a short list of candidates and a divided FOMC heading into the December meeting.— BRAZIL STILL FEELS 50% TARIFF BITE: Despite some exclusions, about 22% of Brazilian exports — especially agribusiness, machinery and manufactured goods — remain hit by the full 50% U.S. tariff.— U.S. LINKS STEEL TARIFFS TO EU TECH RULES: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tells EU ministers that easing digital regulations on U.S. tech firms is key to securing lower U.S. steel duties and avoiding new tariffs.— CARNEY PIVOTS CANADA AWAY FROM U.S.: Canada’s prime minister downplays urgency of restarting talks with Washington, stressing a rapid shift toward trade deals with Europe and Asia to reduce U.S. dependence.— EU WEIGHS PERMANENT PESTICIDE APPROVALS: Leaked draft would give indefinite approval to most active ingredients, tighten rules on hazardous chemicals and imports, and has triggered a backlash from green groups.— EQUITIES TODAY: Global stocks pause and U.S. futures are mixed as investors await fresh U.S. economic data despite firming expectations for more Fed rate cuts.— EQUITIES YESTERDAY: Wall Street closed higher, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all posting gains versus Nov. 21.— U.S. RETAIL SALES COOL: September retail sales rose just 0.2%, the weakest in four months, while core sales slipped 0.1%, hinting at softer consumer momentum heading into the holidays.— FED CUT ODDS SURGE: Market-implied chances of a December rate cut jump to about 80% as doves like Chris Waller, John Williams and Mary Daly speak up, even as prominent economists warn about inflation risks.— CHINA BUYING U.S. COTTON & PORK: USDA export data show upland cotton and pork as the only notable U.S. sales to China in early October via weekly Export Sales report.— USDA CITRUS BUY IS MODEST LIFELINE:/strong> USDA’s $30 million purchase of oranges, grapefruit and mandarins will aid food banks and growers but falls short of what specialty-crop groups say they need.— CANADA 2025–26 CROP OUTLOOK: AAFC projects bigger harvests, softer prices and sharply higher ending stocks across grains, oilseeds and pulses as exports lag and supplies rebuild.— AG MARKETS YESTERDAY: Grains were mixed, cotton and hogs firmed, while live and feeder cattle futures posted sharp losses.— OIL SLIPS ON OVERSUPPLY FEARS: Crude prices eased Tuesday as worries about a 2025 surplus outweighed concerns over Russian export constraints and stalled Ukraine peace talks.— MONDAY OIL REBOUND: Brent and WTI bounced off one-month lows Monday as skepticism over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and hopes for a December Fed cut restored some risk premium.— PRESSURE BUILDS ON CARB OVER E15: Ethanol groups and Iowa’s ag secretary urge California to speed E15 approval, but CARB’s process still points to broad rollout closer to 2026 without a direct Newsom order.— EV FUEL ECONOMY RULE RESET: OMB finishes reviewing DOE’s revised petroleum-equivalent values for EVs after a court tossed the 2024 methodology, forcing regulators back toward a 2000-era standard.— RFS CHANGES BACKLOAD DIESEL SHOCK TO 2027: Analysts Hubbs and Irwin say EPA’s RFS rewrite and “half RIN” policy will sharply tighten biomass-based diesel feedstock markets in 2027 once a huge RIN bank is drawn down.— DEMOCRATS SEE RURAL OPENING: Gov. Andy Beshear argues Trump’s tariffs, shutdown fallout and health bill give Democrats a chance to reclaim rural voters if they focus relentlessly on pocketbook stress.— TRUMP VS. BEEF INFLATION: Bloomberg reports that record U.S. beef demand and tight herds are overwhelming Trump’s efforts to cool prices, with consumers trading down but still buying more beef.— UK TO TAX SUGARY MILK DRINKS: Britain will scrap the sugar-tax exemption for milk-based and plant-based drinks and tighten sugar thresholds from 2028 as part of its obesity strategy.— NWS THANKSGIVING OUTLOOK: Rain to heavy snow across the northern tier, severe storms in the Deep South, and a sharp cooldown into Thanksgiving. Top Stories —USDA’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade will not be issued today. The Foreign Agricultural Service changed the release date to Dec. 23 instead of today. Presumably the gov’t shutdown has caused the delay in the report. The quarterly trade forecast report has become controversial since the May report was delayed slightly and only contained data tables and no commentary on the forecasts. The August edition also was a data-only release that also included USDA’s first forecast for Fiscal Year (FY) 2026. In that report, USDA revised the FY 2025 outlook to forecast agricultural exports at $173 billion against imports of a record $220 billion for a record deficit of $47 billion. The initial FY 2026 outlook was for $169 billion in exports and $210.5 billion in imports for a deficit of $41.5 billion. —Beijing prolongs beef probe as domestic supplies swellChina’s safeguard investigation extended into early 2026 amid rising internal production and cautious trade posture China’s Commerce Ministry has pushed its sweeping beef import investigation deeper into 2026, extending the probe by another two months to Jan. 26, 2026. The ministry cited the “complexity of the case,” marking the second extension since the safeguard investigation began in December 2024. The probe is examining whether beef imports from Jan. 1, 2019 through June 30, 2024, caused or threatened serious injury to China’s domestic producers. It does not target any specific exporting country, but it comes at a time when China is dealing with a large — and still growing — domestic beef supply, reducing the urgency for foreign products and heightening sensitivity to import pressures. Analysts note that the repeated delays suggest Beijing is carefully managing the balance between protecting local producers and avoiding overt trade confrontation as global beef prices remain elevated and major suppliers — including the U.S., Brazil, Argentina, and Australia — watch closely for any potential trade implications. China has not signaled whether safeguard tariffs or quotas may result from the probe, but the continued extensions indicate the issue remains politically and economically delicate heading into 2026.—U.S. producer prices rebound in September on surge in food and energy costsPPI rises 0.3% as meat and energy prices jump, while services remain flat and annual inflation holds at 2.7%U.S. producer prices climbed 0.3% in September 2025, reversing the unexpected 0.1% decline in August and matching market expectations, according to the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics report. The rebound was driven primarily by stronger goods inflation, which hit 0.9%—its fastest monthly pace in more than a year.Food prices rose sharply, up 1.1% after a modest 0.1% gain in August, with higher meat prices more than offsetting lower vegetable costs. Energy prices also turned higher, advancing 3.5% after a decline the prior month, as natural gas liquids and ethanol contributed to the upswing.Service-sector prices were unchanged, maintaining the 0.3% drop seen previously and tempering some of the upward pressure. On a year-over-year basis, producer price inflation remained steady at 2.7%, signaling that pipeline cost pressures are firming but not accelerating broadly beyond goods categories. Of note: A major factor in the September advance in the index for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand was the price of corn, which rose 8.3%. The indexes for slaughter barrows and gilts, slaughter steers and heifers, fresh fruits and melons, and aluminum base scrap also increased. Some 60% of the September rise in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which advanced 11.8%. The indexes for meats, residential electric power, natural gas liquids, motor vehicles and equipment, and ethanol also moved higher. In contrast, prices for fresh and dry vegetables declined 1.8%. The indexes for nonferrous metal ores and for residual fuels also fell.—Fed succession watch: Bessent says Trump likely to name new Fed chair before ChristmasTreasury Secretary signals decision is imminent as short-list interviews wrap up; Trump continues pressure campaign on rates while FOMC wrestles with divisions ahead of December meeting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday there is a “very good chance” President Donald Trump will announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair before Christmas, signaling the administration is nearing the end of its search to replace Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May 2026. In an interview with CNBC, Bessent — who is leading the search process — said he has one more interview remaining and declined to speculate on the likely nominee. “It’s the president’s prerogative,” he said, noting the announcement could still slip into the new year but that “things are moving along very well.” Trump has intensified his public criticism of the Fed in recent weeks, saying he would “love” to fire Powell and urging Bessent to “work on” the central bank to push rates lower. Trump even joked, “If you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m gonna fire your ass,” a line Bessent insisted was said in jest. Still, he acknowledged the broader challenge: “Monetary policy has gotten very complicated, and it’s more than just cutting rates.” The next chair will inherit a fractured Federal Open Market Committee, with policymakers increasingly split over whether to continue easing. Markets expect a third straight rate cut at the December meeting following recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams. The administration’s list of finalists is believed to include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Rick Rieder, and Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Bessent hinted at a philosophical shift he wants the next chair to embrace. “We’ve got to simplify things,” he said. “It’s time for the Fed to move back into the background… calm things down and work for the American people.” —Brazil faces ongoing strain as many exports still hit by full 50% U.S. tariffPartial exclusions offer limited relief as agribusiness, machinery, and manufacturing remain under heavy pressure Despite Washington’s removal of 238 items from the Trump administration’s tariff hike, a substantial share of Brazilian exports continues to enter the U.S. with the full 50% surcharge that has been in place since August. According to Brazil’s government, roughly 22% of its sales to the U.S. remain affected — with the heaviest impact falling on agribusiness, machinery, and manufactured goods. While exclusions covered key products such as beef, green coffee, and fresh fruit, hundreds of other Brazilian exports remain subject to the tariff, compounding competitiveness losses amid a broader trade slowdown. Products still paying the 50% tariff. Sectors most dependent on U.S. demand continue to face steep penalties. Goods still taxed at 50% include:• Instant (soluble) coffee• Seafood and fish• Honey• Agricultural machinery and equipment• Engines and specialized industrial machinery• Footwear• Furniture For coffee exporters, the split treatment has been especially painful: green coffee was exempted, but soluble coffee remains taxed — contributing to a 52% drop in shipments since August, according to Abics. Agricultural and industrial impacts intensify. Brazil’s agricultural exporters report rising costs, contract uncertainty, and greater vulnerability to global competitors. Timber shipments to the U.S. have plummeted 55% since the tariff hike, government data shows. Although some agricultural goods — including beef, green coffee, bananas, tomatoes, açaí, cashews, tea, and other fruits — were removed from the tariff list, industry groups warn that relief is uneven and far from sufficient. Trade conflict still far from resolved. Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade estimates that $8.9 billion in Brazilian exports to the U.S. remain subject to the surcharge. Manufacturing remains the “most sensitive point,” the government says, due to limited options for redirecting shipments elsewhere. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin confirmed that negotiations for additional exclusions are ongoing. While Brasília views the partial rollback as its most meaningful progress since August, major export chains — especially machinery, processed foods, and industrial goods — continue to shoulder the brunt of the dispute. —Washington presses Brussels to ease tech rules in bid to unlock tariff reliefLutnick tells EU ministers a “balanced approach” is needed if Europe wants lower U.S. steel duties, the Financial Times reports U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick used his Brussels visit to deliver a blunt message to EU trade ministers: if Europe wants Washington to roll back steel tariffs, it must soften its stance on technology regulation, according to reporting from the Financial Times. Lutnick said the Biden administration’s successor has kept a “balanced approach” at the center of U.S./EU commercial policy, but warned that Brussels’ expanding digital and platform-regulation framework is increasingly viewed in Washington as discriminatory toward American tech firms. EU officials have countered that their Digital Markets Act and other competition rules are aimed at leveling the playing field and protecting consumers. Key: During the meeting — the first full in-person gathering with all 27 EU trade ministers since President Donald Trump returned to office — Lutnick reiterated that any path to lower steel tariffs must account for what he described as “asymmetries” in how the EU treats U.S. companies in the tech sector. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Šefčovič, framed the session as a stock-taking exercise rather than a negotiation, but diplomats told the FT the discussion underscored how intertwined the steel, tech and broader tariff disputes have become. President Trump in September threatened to launch a Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974) investigation into European digital policies in response to fines the Commission levied on Google and Apple. Of note: Šefčovič, speaking alongside Lutnick, USTR Jamieson Greer and Dutch Trade Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, said the two sides discussed how they could “launch this process on the digital matters” but reiterated the EU’s stance that its laws do not discriminate against U.S. companies. Several EU capitals are pushing for a July trade deal implementation that would scale down U.S. steel duties and remove tariffs on European wine and spirits. But Lutnick indicated Washington is unlikely to move without concessions, highlighting that “regulatory overreach” remains a primary obstacle for U.S. industry. Greer said the revenue thresholds in the EU regulations capture “nearly only U.S. companies,” among other complaints. “The enforcement is quite aggressive at times,” he said. “Complying with the law can become challenging. Sometimes our companies feel like the goalposts are moved. The fines can be quite large.” Greer said he made this point “not to be negative, but just to explain a little bit the U.S. position and challenge we see vis-à-vis these laws. So I’m greatly encouraged by the conversations we had today.” The meeting sets up a tense stretch ahead of follow-on talks, with EU officials worried that looming U.S. tariffs on trucks, critical minerals, wind turbines and industrial equipment could unravel the broader framework if the tech-rules impasse persists. Šefčovič said he would travel to Washington, DC, in the next few weeks to continue discussions. —Carney signals shift away from U.S. as Canada accelerates pivot to Europe and AsiaPrime minister says Ottawa is “busy” advancing new global trade deals, downplays urgency of re-engaging Washington after tariff flare-ups Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada is not prioritizing renewed trade talks with the United States, emphasizing instead a sweeping push to expand economic ties with Europe and Asia as Ottawa adapts to tariff uncertainty under President Donald Trump. Speaking Nov. 23 on the sidelines of the G20 summit in South Africa, Carney said he expects to speak with Trump “soon,” but stressed he has “no burning issue” requiring immediate engagement with the White House. Trump terminated bilateral trade talks last month following an Ontario-sponsored ad featuring Ronald Reagan criticizing broad tariffs, and threatened — but has yet to implement — an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods. Asked directly when negotiations might resume, Carney said his government has been focused on a far broader global economic agenda. “We passed a budget that’s going to catalyze a trillion dollars of investment, we have launched new trade agreements, we’ve secured new investment in the country of a size not seen before, so we’re busy,” he said, adding that Trump also “has other things to do and we’ll re-engage when it’s appropriate.” Carney underscored that Ottawa is rapidly deepening ties with Asia and Europe as part of a long-term diversification strategy. He highlighted a newly finalized economic partnership with Indonesia, the launch of free trade negotiations with Thailand and the Philippines, and accelerated work to conclude a broader agreement with ASEAN in 2026. He also said Canada has opened discussions with the European Union and Vietnam on potential integration between the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the EU — an initiative he said could link “two of the world’s largest trading blocs representing over a billion people,” boosting trade, investment, and cooperation in areas from artificial intelligence to energy. Carney’s comments build on his declaration last month that Canada will seek to double non-U.S. exports within a decade, citing the unpredictability of U.S. tariff policy. “We have to take care of ourselves because we can’t rely on one foreign partner,” he said. Still, some caution that Ottawa’s sweeping ambitions may face practical constraints. —EU moves toward permanent pesticide approvals, sparking safety backlashLeaked draft would grant indefinite approval for most active ingredients while tightening rules on hazardous chemicals and imports A leaked European Commission draft shows the EU is preparing to overhaul its pesticide approval system by granting permanent authorization for most active ingredients — a major shift from today’s 10- to 15-year renewal cycle. The proposal, part of a broader effort to streamline food safety rules, is expected to be unveiled on Dec. 16. Under the plan, indefinite approvals would not apply to the most hazardous substances or to chemicals designated as “candidates for substitution,” which are meant to be phased out in favor of safer alternatives. For cases where a risky substance is still needed to control a serious plant disease and no viable replacement exists, the draft would permit temporary approvals of up to five years. The proposal also includes a new trade provision: imports of agricultural goods could be banned if they contain pesticides barred within the EU — a move likely to raise tensions with trading partners. Environmental groups are sharply criticizing the leaked draft, warning that permanent approvals could reduce scrutiny of widely used chemicals and allow the EU to sidestep politically sensitive battles like past disputes over glyphosate. They argue the system should be moving toward more frequent reviews, not fewer. The Commission is expected to formally present the package next month. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets paused as investors grew more cautious ahead of a slate of U.S. economic data, even as expectations continued to firm for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. U.S. equity futures are mixed following gains across major U.S. markets yesterday. In Asia, Japan +0.1%. Hong Kong +0.7%. China +0.9%. India -0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. 24 | Point Difference from Nov. 21 | % Difference from Nov. 21 |
| Dow | 46,448.27 | +202.86 | +0.44% |
| Nasdaq | 22,872.01 | +598.92 | +2.69% |
| S&P 500 | 6,705.12 | +102.13 | +1.55% |
—U.S. retail sales rises less than expected at four-month low
September’s broad-based softening raises questions about consumer momentum
U.S. retail sales rose just 0.2% in September 2025, marking the slowest monthly increase since May and coming in below expectations for a 0.4% gain. The modest uptick followed a stronger 0.6% rise in August, signaling a potential cooling in consumer spending as the holiday season approaches.
Growth was led by miscellaneous store retailers (+2.9%) and gasoline stations (+2%), with additional gains at health & personal care stores (+1.1%), food services and drinking places (+0.7%), furniture stores (+0.6%), food and beverage outlets (+0.2%), building materials & garden equipment dealers (+0.2%), and general merchandise stores (+0.1%).
But the strength was uneven. Notable pullbacks hit sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument & book stores (-2.5%), clothing (-0.7%), nonstore retailers (-0.7%), electronics & appliance stores (-0.5%), and motor vehicles & parts (-0.3%).
A key indicator for economic growth — core retail sales excluding autos, food services, building materials, and gasoline — declined 0.1% after a 0.6% rebound in August. Economists had expected a 0.3% rise, suggesting softer underlying demand and a potential drag on Q3 GDP calculations.
—Cut momentum builds at the Fed
Rebounding odds set up a high-drama December meeting
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month has surged to roughly 80%, up from less than 30% just a week ago, as dovish voices inside the central bank grow louder and markets recalibrate their expectations.
Fed Governor Chris Waller, widely viewed as a leading contender to succeed Chair Jay Powell, told Fox Business that he sees a December cut as “prudent,” reinforcing the shift in sentiment. He’s joined by other dovish policymakers, including New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
But the decision is far from locked in. The Wall Street Journal reports that December’s policy vote could feature multiple dissents, signaling a rare level of internal division. Prominent economists — including Mohamed El-Erian and Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management — are cautioning that cutting too early risks reigniting inflationary pressures at a fragile moment for the economy.
The stage is set for one of the most contentious and consequential Fed meetings in years.
| AG MARKETS |
—Upland cotton, pork remained only U.S. export sales activity to China in early Oct. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report for the week ended Oct. 9 continued to show the only sales activity to China being for upland cotton and pork. The report showed net sales of 16,695 running bales of upland cotton for 2025/26 and exports of 4,405 running bales, taking outstanding sales to 101,149 running bales. On pork, net sales of 1,710 MT were reported with exports of 2,609 MT, putting outstanding sales at 20,316 MT.
—USDA citrus buy offers limited relief for struggling growers
Agency’s $30 million purchase helps food banks but falls short of industry needs
USDA announced Monday that it will buy up to $30 million in fresh fruit for distribution through food banks and nutrition assistance programs — a routine procurement under the Agricultural Marketing Service’s authority in Section 32 of the Agriculture Act of 1935.
Under the plan, the department will purchase $15 million in oranges, $10 million in grapefruit, and $5 million in mandarins, providing a welcome — though modest — boost to citrus growers. The move follows USDA’s recent disaster-aid carve-out for producers who suffered heavy losses in high-value specialty crops such as fruits and vegetables.
But industry groups say the support is nowhere near enough to counter the sector’s difficult year. Specialty crop organizations continue urging the administration to include their growers in the upcoming farm bailout, citing a “host of unprecedented challenges” — from elevated input costs and shifting trade policies to persistent labor shortages.
While the new fruit purchase will strengthen supply for nutrition programs and offer some short-term relief, growers warn that deeper structural pressures remain unresolved.
—Canada’s 2025–26 crop outlook: Bigger harvests, softer prices, rising stocks
AAFC sees improved yields but weaker export pace driving a sharp buildup in year-end inventories
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Nov. 24, 2025, outlook provides a broad update on the 2025-26 crop year using data available through Nov. 14 and incorporating Statistics Canada’s September Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates. The report shows Canada heading into winter with larger crops, marginally higher supplies, softer prices, and sharply rising ending stocks, particularly for pulses.
Production rebounds on strong prairie yields. AAFC reports that total production of principal field crops is up 2.6% year-over-year, roughly 8% above the five-year average, driven by better yields across Western Canada. Harvest quality is “normal to above normal” for most crops, except durum.
Demand stable but exports lag. Post-harvest movement has been smooth, but exports of monitored crops are down 10% versus last year, largely due to weaker canola shipments. Domestic disappearance is ahead of last year, but export softness across several sectors is pushing projected carry-out stocks up 30%.
Prices down for most crops. Most crop prices are lower year-over-year, with exceptions such as flaxseed and mustard, which show small gains. Global competitive pressure — especially in wheat and coarse grains — continues to weigh on Canadian values.
Canada 2025–26 Commodity Summary Table
| Commodity | Production (2025–26) | Supply | Exports | Ending Stocks | Avg Price |
| Durum | 6.54 Mt | 7.04 Mt | 5.2 Mt | 1.1 Mt | $280/t |
| Wheat (ex-durum) | 30.1 Mt | 33.8 Mt | 22.5 Mt | 4.0 Mt | $265/t |
| Barley | 8.23 Mt | 9.53 Mt | 2.84 Mt | 1.0 Mt | $270/t |
| Corn | 15.5 Mt | 19.0 Mt | 2.4 Mt | 1.9 Mt | $220/t |
| Oats | 3.37 Mt | 3.90 Mt | 2.42 Mt | 0.50 Mt | $305/t |
| Rye | 0.54 Mt | 0.69 Mt | 0.18 Mt | 0.19 Mt | $155/t |
| Canola | 20.0 Mt | 21.7 Mt | 7.0 Mt | 2.5 Mt | $670/t |
| Flaxseed | 0.37 Mt | 0.51 Mt | 0.23 Mt | 0.20 Mt | $600/t |
| Soybeans | 7.13 Mt | 8.09 Mt | 5.35 Mt | 0.50 Mt | $520/t |
| Dry Peas | 3.56 Mt | 4.07 Mt | 2.2 Mt | 1.2 Mt | $280/t |
| Lentils | 2.97 Mt | 3.60 Mt | 2.1 Mt | 1.15 Mt | $530/t |
| Dry Beans | 0.35 Mt | 0.46 Mt | 0.38 Mt | 0.02 Mt | $850/t |
| Chickpeas | 0.33 Mt | 0.43 Mt | 0.20 Mt | 0.15 Mt | $600/t |
| Mustard Seed | 0.14 Mt | 0.29 Mt | 0.095 Mt | 0.145 Mt | $880/t |
| Canary Seed | 0.19 Mt | 0.27 Mt | 0.135 Mt | 0.12 Mt | $450/t |
| Sunflower Seed | 0.061 Mt | 0.237 Mt | 0.035 Mt | 0.135 Mt | $700/t |
Bottom Line: AAFC’s November outlook portrays a high-supply, low-price environment heading into 2026. Improved yields and strong domestic processing (particularly for canola) are offset by sluggish exports, large global crops, and intensifying competition, resulting in significant rebuilding of carry-out stocks across grains, oilseeds, and pulses. The next update is scheduled for Dec.17, 2025, with Statistics Canada to publish final production estimates on Dec. 4.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov. 24 | Difference vs Nov. 21 |
| Corn | March | 4.36 3/4 | -0.75¢ |
| Soybeans | January | 11.23 1/4 | -1.75¢ |
| Soybean Meal | March | 324.10 | -0.60 |
| Soybean Oil | March | 51.04¢ | -0.08¢ |
| SRW Wheat | March | 5.34 3/4 | -5¢ |
| HRW Wheat | March | 5.22 1/2 | -3.75¢ |
| Spring Wheat | March | 5.78 | +2.75¢ |
| Cotton | March | 64.00¢ | +0.15¢ |
| Live Cattle | February | 207.525 | -7.25 |
| Feeder Cattle | January | 304.975 | -9.25 |
| Lean Hogs | February | 79.175 | +1.475 |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices Tuesday eased as concerns supply will exceed demand next year outweighed worries that Russian shipments will remain under sanctions as talks to end the Ukraine war remain inconclusive. Brent futures fell 0.3% to $63.17 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 0.3% to $58.68.
—Monday: Oil prices recover as traders reassess Fed path and peace prospects
Crude bounces off one-month lows amid skepticism over Russia/Ukraine talks and hopes for a December Fed cut
Oil prices climbed on Monday, retracing part of last week’s selloff as traders reconsidered the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut and grew doubtful that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is anywhere near fruition. Brent rose $0.81 to $63.37, while WTI gained $0.78 to $58.84, after both benchmarks closed Friday at their lowest levels since October 21.
Much of last week’s pressure stemmed from reports hinting at momentum in peace negotiations, which led markets to price out more than 5% of the geopolitical risk premium. But by Monday, that optimism had faded. Washington and Kyiv continued wrestling over a U.S. proposal that European and Ukrainian officials argue tilts too heavily toward Moscow’s interests, with no signs that either side is close to an agreement.
New U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil took effect Friday, complicating Russia’s export logistics and normally offering support to prices. Instead, traders held back, wary that even the possibility of a future peace breakthrough could unlock more Russian exports. Meanwhile, Russian fiscal projections showed growing strain: November oil and gas revenue is expected to fall more than 30% year-over-year, squeezed by softer prices and a stronger ruble.
Expectations for easier U.S. monetary policy helped stabilize sentiment. A Federal Reserve governor signaled that weakening labor-market data could justify another 25-bp rate cut in December. Markets remain divided, however, with recent U.S. employment and unemployment data pointing in different directions.
Globally, indicators were mixed. Germany’s latest business-sentiment reading slid again in November, highlighting continued economic fragility across Europe. Elsewhere, the U.S. expanded a terrorism designation tied to Venezuela’s leadership, reinforcing sanctions that keep the country’s oil exports constrained. And a phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi — touching on Ukraine, fentanyl enforcement and agricultural trade — added a modest lift to demand expectations in the world’s top two oil-consuming nations.
—CARB faces pressure to speed E15 rollout — but major acceleration still unlikely
Ethanol groups push for immediate adoption, yet California’s regulatory machinery and staff concerns point to a 2026-timed implementation unless Gov. Newsom intervenes
Ethanol producers are mounting an aggressive public campaign to prod the California Air Resources Board (CARB) into faster implementation of E15, arguing that AB 30 clearly authorizes immediate sales and that California’s fuel infrastructure is already largely compatible. But while the industry’s case carries political and technical weight, the odds of CARB dramatically accelerating its timeline remain limited without a renewed directive from Gov. Gavin Newsom.
At the heart of the industry’s push is the unusually strong legislative signal behind AB 30, which passed unanimously and was signed Oct. 2. Both the American Coalition for Ethanol and the Renewable Fuels Association note that lawmakers intended E15 to be made available right away, with ACE emphasizing 14 years of safe nationwide use and RFA pointing to Newsom’s prior instruction for CARB to “prioritize” the process. The groups argue that treating E15 as a standard gasoline grade — not an alternative fuel — aligns with federal practice and would spare retailers unnecessary costs and paperwork.
They also stress that California’s fueling infrastructure is nearly ready. ACE contends that existing tanks, piping systems, and dispensers are overwhelmingly compatible with E15. RFA keeps disputing CARB staff estimates that thousands of tanks and lines need upgrades, calling the concerns overstated and noting that CARB-certified vapor-recovery equipment for E15 is already on the market. The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association added its own experience, noting E15 sales in Iowa will nearly double this year and arguing that California’s carbon-intensity rules could support even larger fuel-price discounts — as much as 30 to 40 cents per gallon.
Yet despite these arguments, CARB is unlikely to shift dramatically from its current timeline. The agency’s rulemaking structure — involving workshops, spec updates, vapor-recovery certifications, legal review, and board action — typically requires 12 to 18 months even when “fast-tracked.” Environmental justice advocates often weigh in on fuel-handling rules, adding procedural layers. And CARB historically resists industry-driven public pressure, often slowing timelines when pushed hard.
Technical caution also plays a role. Even if the tank-compatibility concerns prove exaggerated, CARB will still require documented certification for each major equipment category before allowing widespread blending and distribution.
The most plausible outcome is a split: E15 may be legally allowed on paper much sooner, enabling early-mover retailers to adopt the blend, but statewide, routine E15 availability is unlikely before mid- to late-2026.
| Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig is also urging CARB to move quickly on allowing E15 sales, arguing that Iowa’s long track record shows the fuel is safe, affordable, and easy to integrate. In formal comments (link), Naig said Iowa’s experience proves that when consumers have the choice, they repeatedly choose E15 for its lower cost and cleaner-burning profile. Naig emphasized that Iowa is the nation’s biofuels leader, producing billions of gallons of ethanol and biodiesel annually and supporting thousands of ag and energy jobs. He noted that consumer demand for E15 has surged—statewide sales rose from 41.6 million gallons in 2019 to 256.7 million gallons in 2024. He said E15 consistently saves families money, averaging about a 15-cent-per-gallon discount versus regular unleaded and producing an estimated $38.5 million in consumer savings last year. Iowa’s decade-plus experience shows broad equipment compatibility, with no systemic infrastructure issues and low-cost upgrades when needed. Naig also highlighted Iowa’s new E15 Access Standard, which will require most retailers to offer E15 starting Jan. 1, 2026 — evidence, he said, that the fuel is market-ready. He argued that swift approval from CARB would give California drivers access to a proven, lower-cost, lower-emission fuel already widely adopted across the Midwest. |
Bottom Line: According to multiple industry analysts, there is only one scenario that would meaningfully speed things up: a fresh, explicit directive from Gov. Newsom telling CARB to complete the process by a specific date. Without that kind of political push, CARB will continue on its cautious, technical pace — receptive to outside input, but not driven by it.
California E15 Rollout Timeline
| Milestone | Description |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Governor Newsom signs AB 30 authorizing E15 in California. |
| Oct 2025 | CARB begins rulemaking and hearings on E15 integration. |
| 2025-2026 | CARB conducts required multimedia evaluation (MME). |
| Late 2026 | Expected release of formal 45-day rulemaking proposal. |
| Early 2027 | Anticipated final regulations and early retail rollout. |
—OMB wraps review of DOE’s revised EV fuel economy rule
Court ruling forces DOE back to a 2000-era standard as regulators reconsider how EVs are counted under federal fuel economy rules
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has completed its review of a final Department of Energy rule that would establish a petroleum-equivalent fuel (PEF) value for electric vehicles used to calculate fuel economy under the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. DOE initially finalized a new PEF methodology in March 2024 that would have gradually lowered PEF values beginning with model year 2027, effectively tightening EV-related compliance.
That approach was struck down in September 2025, reverting the calculation back to a methodology adopted in 2000. The decision was celebrated by groups arguing that the rejected rule would have compelled automakers to accelerate EV sales more aggressively to meet CAFE targets. The court concluded that while DOE holds authority to set fuel-content factors for certain alternative fuels, Congress did not grant it authority to apply that framework to electricity — undercutting the 2024 methodology and sending the agency back to the drawing board.
—Report: RFS rewrite pushes biggest market shock to 2027
Hubbs & Irwin say EPA’s revised mandates, half-RIN rule, and a massive RIN bank delay — but do not prevent — a major surge in biomass-based diesel demand
In a detailed assessment of EPA’s latest Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) rulemaking, Todd Hubbs of Oklahoma State University and Scott Irwin of the University of Illinois warn via a farmdoc report (link) that the agency’s revised Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) will trigger “one of the most consequential regulatory developments of the last decade” for biomass-based diesel markets. But, they stress, the real impact will not occur until 2027, due to the unprecedented size of the D4 RIN bank.
A trilogy of EPA decisions resets the market. Hubbs and Irwin note that the EPA’s combined actions — higher RVOs, restrictive small refinery exemptions (SREs), and mandatory reallocation — create “substantially higher requirements for 2026–2027.” They also revisit their earlier projections showing D4 RIN generation rising from 7.84 billion gallons (2023–25) to 9.43 billion gallons (2026–27), about a 20% increase.
A central market variable is the EPA’s proposed “half RIN” credit for biomass-based diesel made with imported feedstock or imported fuel. With RIN prices near $1, the authors write that the half RIN proposal “is large enough to fundamentally reshape production decisions.”
Production Surges — But Only After 2026. Across scenarios, Hubbs and Irwin find:
• FAME biodiesel production increases around 39% in 2026–27 versus 2023–25.
• Renewable diesel production climbs even more — around 44%.
• Capacity utilization rises from 71% (2023–25) to approaching or exceeding 100% by 2027, “marking a dramatic reversal from the recent period of oversupply.”
Feedstock impacts: the “backloaded” shock. The authors repeatedly emphasize that feedstock implications concentrate in 2027:
Total feedstock use rises from 40.0 billion pounds (2023–25 avg.) to
• 47.7B lbs in 2026 (+19%)
• 59.2B lbs in 2027 (+48%)
Domestic feedstock sees the most dramatic swing, jumping from 22.9B lbs (2023–25 avg.) to
• 37.3B lbs in 2026 (+63%)
• 48.8B lbs in 2027 (+113%)
Hubbs and Irwin highlight the strain this places on U.S. supply: domestic feedstock use in 2027 would equal 61% of total available U.S. supply, based on USDA estimates.
Imported feedstock, by contrast, drops immediately in 2026 — down 39% from the baseline — and remains flat through 2027.
Why 2027 is the breaking point: The RIN bank. The authors write that the D4 RIN bank exploded to 3.0 billion gallons in 2024, “over three times the previous peak,” creating a powerful buffer that delays market pressure. Even after being drawn down in 2025, the bank remains historically large.
But crucially, they project the bank shrinking to just 73 million gallons by end-2026, meaning obligated parties will have exhausted the cushion.
Quotes of note:
“The 2026 compliance year thus represents a major inflection point.”
“The full force of higher RVOs and the half RIN policy will hit the markets in 2027.”
They caution that the combination of policy delays and a still-large RIN bank means 2026 production could remain muted “deep into the year,” increasing the risk of a sharper and more painful adjustment once the market shifts.
Supply tensions and price risks ahead. Hubbs and Irwin draw attention to:
• Global supply constraints: The projected two-year average increase in feedstock demand (around 9.9B lbs) equals 8% of global availability.
• Domestic strain: The increase equals one-quarter of U.S. feedstock supply.
•Specific market pressure: Animal fats, used cooking oil, and soybean oil markets may experience acute tightening.
The authors warn of potential RIN price spikes, depending on whether market participants believe sufficient feedstock and production capacity can meet the 2027 requirements.
Policy wildcard: Possible delay. Citing Reuters, the authors note that the Trump administration is considering delaying the half RIN implementation by one or two years —a move that could reshape the timeline substantially.
Bottom Line: Hubbs and Irwin conclude that participants should prepare for a two-stage adjustment:
•2026: RIN bank cushioning; moderate price increases; production ramp begins.
• 2027: Near-full capacity utilization, tight feedstock markets, and significant risk of RIN volatility.
“The backloaded nature of the feedstock impact to 2027 appears robust across scenarios.”
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Democrats’ rural reboot: Beshear says Trump handed the party an opening
Kentucky governor argues that tariffs, shutdown fallout, and the “One Big Ugly Bill” give Democrats room to reclaim rural America
In a sharply worded opinion piece (link) for the Washington Post, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear — the incoming chair of the Democratic Governors Association — argues that President Donald Trump’s economic agenda has delivered “a slap in the face to rural America,” creating a rare opportunity for Democrats to win back regions that have steadily drifted right.
Beshear writes that Democrats’ strong 2025 election gains — from Georgia to Pennsylvania to New Jersey and Virginia — were driven by candidates who “relentlessly focused on the pocketbook pressures families are facing.” He says those victories were a “direct repudiation of the Trump agenda,” but warns the party still must confront its erosion in rural communities now bearing the brunt of Trump’s tariffs and his signature One Big Ugly Bill.
According to Beshear, Trump’s policies have pushed the American Dream further out of reach for working families. He cites rising grocery and utility bills, unaffordable housing, and the disappearance of small pleasures such as family vacations. More urgently, he blasts the administration for using hunger as a bargaining chip during the recent shutdown and for supporting legislation that would, he writes, kick 17 million Americans off health care, shutter 35 rural hospitals in Kentucky alone, and raise prices across the board.
Beshear argues that the fallout from Trump’s bill “is the worst” he has seen, warning that rural maternal centers will close, families will lose access to specialists, local economies will shrink, and 20,000 Kentucky healthcare workers could lose their jobs. “It’s a slap in the face to rural America,” he writes.
To seize this moment, Beshear says Democrats must become the party of aspiration again — not merely tackling affordability, but restoring belief that families can get ahead. He urges Democrats to speak plainly (“Trump’s policies don’t make people ‘food insecure’ — they make people hungry”), explain their deeper motivations, and reconnect cultural language to real lived experience, particularly around issues like addiction and health care.
Beshear points to his own 2023 reelection map as proof the strategy can work: a recycled paper mill that brought 320 high-wage jobs to a former coal town helped transform Henderson County from a narrow 2019 win into a double-digit victory four years later. That, he writes, is what reviving the American Dream looks like in practice.
Ultimately, Beshear contends that Democrats can win back rural America — but only if they demonstrate that they are the party willing to address day-to-day struggles, fight for a brighter future, and “always give people straight talk.”
| FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—Trump’s beef-price push collides with relentless U.S. appetite for protein
Bloomberg analysis shows record consumer demand is overwhelming Trump’s efforts to cool beef inflation, even as imports rise and shoppers trade down to cheaper cuts
President Donald Trump’s bid to bring down beef prices is running straight into one of the strongest forces in American consumer culture: an unshakable appetite for meat. Bloomberg’s Ilena Peng reports that while tight U.S. cattle supplies remain the core driver of high beef prices, surging demand is preventing any meaningful cooling in grocery aisles.
Ground beef prices have jumped 14% this year to fresh records, yet Americans “aren’t broadly abandoning meat,” Bloomberg writes. Instead, shoppers are shifting behavior — buying cheaper cuts, increasing purchases of ground beef, and gravitating toward poultry.
“Lo and behold, beef has been incredibly strong,” said Anne-Marie Roerink, founder of 210 Analytics, describing how resilient consumer demand has defied expectations.
Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King added that “the grind demand is very strong,” noting a widespread shift from steaks to ground products.
Demand is surging, not retreating. According to Circana data cited by Bloomberg, beef volume sales at U.S. stores climbed about 5% over the past year, outpacing other proteins. That resilience runs counter to demand destruction seen in other markets, such as eggs and cocoa, where soaring prices forced consumer pullbacks.
Consumers also say they’re willing to pay even more: Kansas State University’s Meat Demand Monitor reports shoppers would accept $9.47 per pound for ground beef, well above the $6.64 average retail price this fall.
A supply crisis years in the making. Herd numbers remain at their lowest mid-year count in more than 50 years as drought, costly feed, and high interest rates constrain ranchers. Even with some early signs of herd rebuilding, Bloomberg notes the timeline is long: A calf held for breeding today won’t hit the market until 2029, according to Rabobank’s Lance Zimmerman.
Trump turns to imports — and investigations. Facing these structural shortages, Trump has leaned on trade policy to expand supply:
• Removed stiff tariffs on Brazilian beef, the world’s largest supply source
• Encouraged more shipments from Argentina
• Imports in 2025 are expected to rise 16%
He has also ordered an investigation into alleged price fixing by major processors like Tyson and JBS. Bloomberg notes such allegations are recurring within a highly consolidated meatpacking industry, though processors are currently reporting U.S. beef losses because of tight cattle availability and high costs.
The shift to chicken continues — but beef holds cultural power. With high prices persisting, more families are switching to chicken, supporting packer profits and reshaping household menus. Yet beef’s cultural and culinary draw remains potent. Fast-food brands still lean on beef — Arby’s recent Steak Nuggets launched to viral popularity.
Bloomberg highlights that this moment marks a dramatic reversal from the early 2010s, when beef consumption seemed in structural decline due to health and environmental concerns. Today’s younger consumers show fewer reservations. “Younger consumers are not making the same distinction within meat between beef, pork and chicken,” said Glynn Tonsor of Kansas State University. “I would argue that that trend either is dead or is certainly softened.”
Bottom Line: Trump can push imports, launch investigations, and end tariffs — but U.S. beef prices remain tightly pinned between shrinking herd numbers and an unwavering demand for protein. For now, that demand is winning.
—Britain targets sugary milk drinks with new tax rules
Government to scrap exemption, tighten sugar thresholds in 2028
Britain will remove the long-standing sugar-tax exemption for pre-packaged milk-based drinks — including bottled milkshakes and milky coffees — as part of a broader push to confront what officials call the country’s “obesity epidemic,” the Department of Health announced.
The Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL), first introduced in 2016, currently exempts milk-based beverages. That carve-out will end in January 2028, giving manufacturers more than two years to adjust formulations or face new levies. At the same time, the government will tighten the SDIL threshold to 4.5 grams of sugar per 100 milliliters, down from the current 5 grams.
The exemption will also be removed for plant-based and milk-substitute drinks that contain added sugar. Treasury officials project the change will raise £45 million ($59 million) annually beginning in 2028 and will be written into the budget set for release Wednesday.
The move underscores a renewed policy trend across governments to push consumers toward healthier diets by targeting high-sugar products — even those traditionally marketed as dairy-based or “nutritional” beverages.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Rain changing to locally heavy snow under blustery and windy conditions expected to spread from west to east across the northern tier states for
the next couple of days… …Flash flood and severe weather threats moving through the Deep South early today before reaching the interior Southeast tonight… …Well above average temperatures across much of the central/eastern U.S. will give way to much colder and windy conditions heading into Thanksgiving Day.
