China Eyes 10-million-Ton Soybean Purchase from U.S.
Trump: Will get beef prices down, maybe ranchers doing too well
Link: Fertilizer Industry Calls for Practical Policy Solutions to Support Farmers
and Strengthen Supply
Link: PM Updates: Mexico & U.S. Enter Key Talks on Mexico’s Push to
Reopen Livestock Border
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24
Updates:
UP FRONT
— Trump’s visit to Japan generated plenty of headlines but few specific
— China’s strategic soybean move: Beijing eyes 10-million-ton purchase from the U.S.
— Xi gives Trump a Taiwan test
— USTR outlines timeline for Section 301 investigation into China’s
Phase One compliance
— Trump: Will get beef prices down, maybe ranchers doing too well
— Argentine beef enters U.S. market in landmark deal
— Ways & Means Chair Smith challenges Trump’s push for Argentine beef imports
— Senate Democrats urge Bessent to reconsider $20B aid package to Argentina
— Rollins criticizes beef processing concentration
— U.S. and China move toward deal on shipping levies amid broader trade truce
— Democratic states prepare lawsuit as SNAP funding crisis deepens amid shutdown
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Dow opened around 300 points higher
— Equities yesterday
— Amazon to slash thousands of corporate jobs as hiring boom reverses
— Shares in Keurig Dr Pepper soared on JDE Peet’s financing
— Lukoil plans to sell international assets after sanctions
— Smithfield sees higher profits as consumers return to home cooking
— FOMC preview: Is a dovish surprise looming?
— Gold slumps as trade progress erodes safe-haven demand
AG MARKETS
— Soybeans extend rally to 15-month high ahead of Trump/Xi meeting
— Agriculture markets yesterday
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices fell Tuesday
— Oil prices slipped Monday ahead of OPEC+ meeting as traders eye Trump/Xi talks
TRADE POLICY
— Trump administration’s Southeast Asia trade deals open new doors for U.S. meat and poultry
— Senate braces for showdown over Trump tariffs
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Maine’s Senate race: The first among equals
CHINA
— Beijing’s 15th Five-Year Plan pledges support for private sector, financial power ambitions
FOREIGN POLICY
— Trump’s Argentina gamble: Using U.S. dollars to temper China’s grip
FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY
— Trump administration delays release of new dietary guidelines amid shutdown
— NPPC urges FDA to reconsider ‘ultra-processed’ label ahead of dietary guidelines
TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS
— Trump’s shipbuilding push gains steam amid shutdown
WEATHER
— Hurricane Melissa becomes record-breaking Category 5 storm
— NWS outlook
PM Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Oct. 28, 2025
Up front President Donald Trump’s visit to Japan generated plenty of headlines but few specifics. In Tokyo, Trump and Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed two vaguely worded documents — one pledging to strengthen supply chains for rare earth metals, and another reaffirming the initial trade framework announced in July. “We are an ally at the strongest level,” Trump said, as the White House declared both nations had “confirmed their strong commitment to implementing this GREAT DEAL.” Link to White House briefing and statement. The document also said, “The two leaders instructed relevant ministers and secretaries to take further steps for a NEW GOLDEN AGE of the ever-growing U.S./Japan Alliance.” Yet, the statement offered no new details on Japan’s prior pledges to purchase American rice, soybeans, and automobiles, or its vow to invest $550 billion in the United States. The critical minerals agreement, likewise, lacked timelines or targets. Rollins reiterates Japan buys. Japan will buy $8 billion in U.S. corn, soybeans, rice, ethanol and other goods, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says in a post on X. But this is not really new news. From the Sept. 5 factsheet from the White House on the U.S./Japan deal reached July 22: “American farmers and producers will immediately benefit from the deal with Japan’s commitment to purchase $8 billion of U.S. agricultural goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, bioethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel.” Takaichi did commit to accelerating Japan’s defense buildup — raising military spending to 2% of GDP by March, two years ahead of schedule — echoing Trump’s long-standing demand that allies pay more for their own protection. The Japan visit comes amid a broader U.S. push to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals. Over the weekend, Trump announced similar resource agreements with Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia. Next up: Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday to discuss the emerging U.S./China trade framework, fentanyl flows, rare earth cooperation, and agricultural purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed those topics aboard Air Force One, while U.S. officials expect Xi to press Trump to moderate Washington’s diplomatic support for Taiwan. In other trade developments, the Mexican peso rose after the U.S. and Mexico agreed to extend by several weeks a November 1 deadline for a bilateral trade deal, delaying the imposition of new tariffs. —China’s strategic soybean move: Beijing eyes 10-million-ton purchase from the U.S.Massive short-term buying plan could buoy U.S. farmers and stabilize trade ties before South America’s harvest Beijing is weighing a plan to purchase nearly 10 million tons of U.S. soybeans to cover its domestic needs through February, before switching back to suppliers in South America once the new harvest begins. The move would mark one of the largest single procurement efforts since trade normalization talks resumed, signaling Beijing’s intent to stabilize feed supplies and ease pressure on Chinese crushers after months of tight margins and volatile imports. For Washington, the potential deal arrives at a politically charged moment. President Trump has made reopening Chinese demand a key plank of his “farm recovery” strategy amid the ongoing government shutdown and delayed support payments to U.S. producers. If confirmed, the purchase could inject significant momentum into U.S. soybean futures beyond — already rebounding on expectations of renewed Chinese demand — and help drain hefty on-farm inventories across the Midwest. Still, analysts caution that the buying spree would likely be temporary. Once Brazilian and Argentine shipments ramp up in early 2026, China’s imports are expected to pivot southward again. But for now, the plan underscores a broader thaw in U.S./China trade relations — and provides a rare boost to farm-state optimism during an otherwise uncertain economic stretch. President Trump’s tariff battle with China has hit soybean farmers particularly hard. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he feels their pain. “In case you don’t know it, I’m actually a soybean farmer. So, I have felt this pain too,” Bessent said Sunday on ABC News’ This Week. A former hedge fund manager, Bessent’s net worth is roughly $600 million, according to Forbes. According to his public financial disclosure filed in January, he owns corn and soybean farmland in North Dakota worth between $5 million and $25 million. The farmland generates between $100,000 and $1 million in rental income for Bessent, via a revenue sharing agreement with those producing the crops. —Xi gives Trump a Taiwan testWSJ editorial warns against weakening U.S. support for Taipei ahead of Trump/Xi Meeting As President Trump prepares to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday, the Wall Street Journal editorial board warns that Xi’s true objective may not be trade but Taiwan. “Mr. Xi has another agenda, which is to coax Mr. Trump to weaken American support for the democracy of Taiwan,” the editorial argues, urging the administration to stand firm. Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to reassure Americans over the weekend that “no one is contemplating” trading away support for Taiwan in exchange for favorable treatment on trade. The editorial calls this “good to hear,” but stresses that Xi’s “big ask has been that the U.S. formally oppose independence for Taiwan.” The Journal notes that current U.S. policy embraces “deliberate ambiguity,” acknowledging Beijing’s “one China” position without endorsing it. Changing that stance, the editors argue, would effectively validate Xi’s narrative that Taiwan is a rogue province and “undermine morale” on the island. “Mr. Xi, not unlike Vladimir Putin with Ukraine, aims to condition the world to his narrative so he can subdue 23 million free people on an island the Chinese Communist Party has never ruled,” the piece states. The editorial cautions that any concession to Xi would “erode deterrence” and “invite conflict” at a time when “the U.S. weathers a nadir in military power in this decade.” Such weakness, it says, would mirror the 2023 remarks by then–Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said Washington did “not support” Taiwanese independence — comments that drew bipartisan criticism. Citing the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the board underscores that any attempt to determine Taiwan’s future “by other than peaceful means” is “of grave concern to the United States.” Only Beijing, it stresses, is engaging in intimidation. The Journal concludes that Taiwan “passes every test for a U.S. interest from raw geopolitics to core values.” The island forms part of the “first Pacific island chain that defines the U.S. security perimeter against Beijing’s ambitions.” For now, it says, President Trump “can make a donation to world peace by refusing Mr. Xi’s demands to sell out Taiwan.” —USTR outlines timeline for Section 301 investigation into China’s Phase One compliancePublic comments to open Oct. 31; hearing set for Dec. 16 on trade and IP commitments The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) released the official schedule for its Section 301 investigation into China’s adherence to the 2020 Phase One trade agreement. The probe will assess Beijing’s compliance with key provisions on intellectual property protections and purchase commitments totaling $535 billion over 2020–2021. According to the notice (link), the public docket for comments will open on Oct. 31, with written submissions due by Dec. 1, the same date that requests to testify at the public hearing must be filed. The public hearing is scheduled for December 16, with the option to continue into the following business day if necessary. Rebuttal comments will be accepted seven days after the hearing concludes. USTR’s notice also includes a detailed timeline of the original Phase One negotiations, underscoring the administration’s intent to review China’s performance in meeting both its intellectual property and purchase obligations under the agreement. —Trump: Will get beef prices down, maybe ranchers doing too wellPresident Trump says prices are down “except for the beef, which I’ll get down” President Trump today in Japan said maybe ranchers are “doing too good now, but we want them to do well, but we have to get the beef prices down.” Trump made the remarks during a during dinner with business leaders in Tokyo. —Argentine beef enters U.S. market in landmark deal Expanded access to the U.S. market marks a turning point for Argentina’s meat industry but highlights production limits at home Argentina’s beef sector is reaching a new milestone as Washington prepares to finalize a bilateral agreement expanding import quotas for Argentine beef into the United States (reportedly a four-fold increase to 80,000 tons). The pact, which keeps the existing 10% tariff in place, is expected to bring a notable rise in export volumes and foreign currency earnings. It comes as the U.S. grapples with declining cattle inventories and growing demand for high-quality, traceable meat — an area where Argentina has built a strong international reputation. The deal signals more than a short-term opportunity from Argentina’s perspective. With the U.S. unable to resolve its livestock shortage quickly, the agreement is expected to provide a lasting foothold for Argentine beef in one of the world’s most lucrative premium markets. The higher price levels in the U.S. compared with China could also help Argentina reduce its dependence on Asian buyers, who currently account for nearly two-thirds of its beef exports. Still, industry experts caution that Argentina faces structural production limits. Annual beef output of roughly 3.2 million tons leaves little room for rapid expansion, and only a portion of meatpacking plants are certified to meet U.S. import standards. As a result, the near-term impact may involve redirecting existing shipments from China toward the U.S. rather than sharply increasing total exports. Shorter shipping times — about two weeks to the U.S. compared with up to seven weeks to Asia — could improve efficiency and margins, but limited livestock availability remains a key constraint. Argentina’s processing capacity exceeds current slaughter rates, suggesting potential growth, yet expanding production without straining the domestic market will be a major challenge, analysts note. Even with those constraints, the agreement strengthens Argentina’s global standing in the premium beef segment, reinforcing its image as a reliable supplier of quality and traceable products while reestablishing its presence in one of the world’s most demanding markets. —Ways & Means Chair Smith challenges Trump’s push for Argentine beef importsMissouri Republican warns that importing foreign beef will do little to lower prices while undermining U.S. ranchers House Ways & Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said he has personally raised objections with President Donald Trump over the administration’s consideration of beef imports from Argentina, arguing the plan would do little to help American consumers while harming domestic producers. “While I agree with the president that, despite lower inflation, the cost of food is still too high for many working families, I strongly disagree with the idea that purchasing beef from Argentina will have a meaningful impact on prices at the store,” Smith said in remarks. Smith’s intervention underscores growing tension among farm-state Republicans over the administration’s use of foreign sourcing to ease food prices. According to Inside U.S. Trade, the Missouri lawmaker told Trump directly that domestic cattle producers are already facing “a slew of challenges” ranging from drought and high feed costs to herd reductions. Opening U.S. markets to Argentine beef, Smith warned, risks further squeezing U.S. ranchers without delivering measurable consumer relief. Industry groups and lawmakers from major beef-producing states have also criticized the proposal, saying Argentina’s exports represent too small a share of the U.S. market to influence retail prices. They argue that the move would contradict the administration’s “America First” message and could deter investments in rebuilding U.S. herds and processing capacity. Smith’s pushback comes as the White House pursues a broader effort to temper food inflation through import diversification, including easing barriers on select meat products from South America. The Ways and Means chair’s public stance signals potential friction within the Republican coalition as Trump weighs short-term price measures against long-term domestic supply goals. —Senate Democrats urge Bessent to reconsider $20B aid package to ArgentinaLetter warns Bessent that foreign assistance undermines U.S. farmers amid tariff-driven market losses Nineteen Democratic senators, led by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, sent a letter (link) to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Oct. 23 expressing “great concern that the Administration has once again prioritized a foreign nation over the needs of American farmers.” The senators objected to the Trump administration’s decision to offer Argentina a $20 billion currency swap line, followed by expanded investments from banks and sovereign wealth funds. They warned that the plan “threatens to continue to close markets for American farmers, who are already facing increased competition from Argentine and Brazilian farmers.” Citing the effect of Trump’s tariffs and retaliatory trade measures, the letter says U.S. producers face rising input costs and shrinking export markets. “Across-the-board tariffs are increasing the cost of critical inputs farmers need to produce a crop, like fertilizer and equipment,” the senators wrote, “at the same time retaliatory tariffs are making U.S. agricultural products less competitive and putting key export markets at risk.” The senators also underscored the deteriorating farm-gate economics, noting that “in a typical year China would have normally booked 15.4 million metric tons of soybeans, corn, wheat and sorghum at the end of August. This year there have been no outstanding sales of any of these commodities by a Chinese buyer.” They urged Bessent to “immediately reconsider further aid to Argentina and instead focus on restoring and expanding long-term export market access for American farmers.” The letter was co-signed by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), and 15 other Democratic senators. —Rollins criticizes beef processing concentrationUSDA Secretary calls for decentralization and deregulation to lower prices and boost competition USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins sharply criticized the concentration of the U.S. beef processing industry during a Monday appearance on The Will Cain Show on Fox News, warning that market consolidation has distorted prices and hurt consumers. Rollins noted that four meatpacking firms control about 85% of U.S. beef processing, and that two of those companies are Brazilian owned, a concentration she said leaves producers and consumers vulnerable to supply disruptions and price manipulation. “It’s necessary to decentralize, deregulate, and restore competition in beef processing,” Rollins said, arguing that a more distributed system would “help lower costs for working families.” She added that importing Argentine beef could temporarily relieve pressure on U.S. prices, particularly for ground meat, which she said is a key staple for lower-income households. Rollins also blamed Democrats for the ongoing government shutdown, urging Congress to reopen the government so that SNAP recipients can access their benefits. “We need to reopen the government and ensure every American family relying on nutrition assistance can get what they need,” she said. —U.S. and China move toward deal on shipping levies amid broader trade trucePreliminary consensus would ease port fees on vessels from both nations, signaling a rare breakthrough in maritime trade tensions. The United States and China have reached a preliminary consensus to resolve a growing dispute over shipping levies, a little-noticed but economically significant element of their trade standoff. Chinese officials confirmed over the weekend that the two sides made progress on export controls, fentanyl, and maritime fees during talks in Kuala Lumpur — clearing the way for Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to review a broader framework agreement later this week. The “shipping levies” under discussion refer to port service fees and other charges imposed on Chinese vessels by the U.S. earlier this year, a move Washington justified on national-security and reciprocity grounds. Beijing retaliated by introducing its own levies on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels, raising transport costs for bulk carriers and container operators moving between the two countries. Trade analysts say the inclusion of these maritime charges in the current negotiations reflects both sides’ intent to defuse tensions that have spilled into logistics and port services, not just tariffs or technology controls. “The maritime sector has become an overlooked front in the trade war,” said one Chinese commerce official, adding that the talks “aim to restore normal cost structures and operational access for commercial fleets.” The potential rollback of these levies would have direct implications for global supply chains, easing freight costs and reducing risks for U.S. exporters of energy, agriculture, and manufactured goods. Shipping companies have warned that the reciprocal fees were distorting competition and forcing vessels to re-flag or reroute through third-country ports to avoid the added costs. According to Reuters, both sides agreed to address the issue as part of a package deal that also covers China’s rare-earth export controls and new commitments on fentanyl precursor enforcement. The agreement, still under review, could be finalized when Trump and Xi meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea on Thursday. While details remain scarce, trade observers view the shipping-levy accord as a symbolic breakthrough that could re-open the door to cooperation in maritime logistics, a sector largely untouched by previous trade truces. If the consensus holds, it would mark one of the first tangible steps toward reducing transport-related frictions that have quietly raised the cost of U.S./China commerce since 2024. Unless shipping and related fees are resolved, analysts say U.S. exporters will remain at a competitive disadvantage. It raises three central questions: how much additional cost China is willing to absorb — as it has with Brazilian soybeans purchased at a premium; whether new U.S. trading partners will accept similar costs in the latest trade deals; and to what extent these burdens will ultimately fall back on U.S. shippers and farmers through reduced margins and farm-gate prices. The conclusion is that both Washington and Beijing have a strong incentive to tackle these fees in forthcoming negotiations, as neither can afford to leave this issue unaddressed if they aim to sustain trade competitiveness. Meanwhile, freight rates have reportedly surged following reports of a tentative deal, though confirmation and details remain pending. Sources suggest the spike stems from both anticipated demand increases and logistical constraints caused by shipping fees that are limiting vessel repositioning and availability across certain ship sizes. These combined factors are tightening supply and pushing freight costs higher. Quote of note: As one maritime economist noted, “Tariffs make headlines, but it’s the port fees and access rules that hit exporters in the pocket first. A truce on shipping levies would be a small but meaningful sign that both sides want trade to move again — literally.” —Democratic states prepare lawsuit as SNAP funding crisis deepens amid shutdownGovernors and attorneys general move to sue over Trump administration’s refusal to use emergency funds, as senators push for last-ditch fix before food aid lapses Dozens of Democratic governors and attorneys general are preparing to sue the Trump administration today over its refusal to use emergency funds to sustain the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food aid to roughly 42 million Americans. Administration officials argued in a Friday memo that they cannot legally draw from a $5 billion contingency fund to pay November benefits during the ongoing government shutdown. With an estimated $9 billion needed to cover the month’s payments, officials said there isn’t enough time to issue partial benefits to states. The administration’s legal position is expected to face immediate court challenges. Reports noted that USDA has made no serious effort to find alternative funding sources to avert the first-ever lapse in federal food benefits. Meanwhile, lawmakers from both parties are racing to prevent a catastrophic cutoff in aid. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has introduced a bill to fund SNAP through the shutdown, but procedural delays threaten to stall it. “It’ll be up to the leader whether he puts it on the floor,” Hawley said, referring to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.). “I’ve urged him to put it on the floor, but his choice.” Thune has not committed to scheduling a vote this week, despite bipartisan support for the measure. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) blasted the administration’s refusal to use the contingency fund, accusing it of misplaced priorities. “Donald Trump says there’s no money to pay hungry kids, but he’s spending $172 million for two luxury jets for Kristi Noem,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. Thune countered that Democrats are “content to see 40 million Americans go without food.” Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.) joined Hawley in backing the bill, though Welch said it’s “up to [Thune’s] Republican colleagues to put the pressure on.” Some GOP senators, including John Hoeven (R-N.D.), expressed skepticism, questioning where the money would come from. Behind the scenes, several Republicans worry that passing a standalone food-aid bill could ease pressure on Democrats and extend the shutdown. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets eased after recent strong gains as optimism over easing global trade tensions met cautious anticipation ahead of a pivotal week for earnings and potential interest rate cuts. The Dow opened around 300 points higher, following a rally that sent all three major U.S. indexes to new closing highs on renewed trade optimism. In Asia, Japan -0.6%. Hong Kong -0.3%. China -0.2%. India -0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Oct. 27 | Point Difference from Oct. 24 | % Difference from Oct. 24 |
| Dow | 47,544.59 | +337.47 | +0.71% |
| Nasdaq | 23,637.46 | +432.59 | +1.86% |
| S&P 500 | 6,875.16 | +83.47 | +1.23% |
—Amazon to slash thousands of corporate jobs as hiring boom reverses. Amazon announced plans to cut roughly 14,000 corporate positions, with the Wall Street Journal reporting the total could climb to as many as 30,000. The move marks one of the company’s largest workforce reductions as it seeks to curb costs and correct overhiring that occurred during the pandemic-era surge in e-commerce. Beth Galetti, Amazon’s senior vice president of people experience and technology, wrote in a blog post that the company needs to be “organized more leanly” and have fewer layers. Amazon is the second-largest private employer in the U.S. with upwards of 1.5 million employees. The 14,000 cuts announced this morning represent about 4% of its corporate and tech workforce.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that PwC has shelved its ambitious plan to hire 100,000 new employees, as analysts warn of a “Great Freeze” spreading across the global job market.
—Shares in Keurig Dr Pepper soared on news that it is raising $7 billion from Apollo and KKR to help finance its acquisition of JDE Peet’s, according to the Financial Times.
—Russia’s second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, said it planned to sell its international assets just days after the Trump administration hit it with sanctions, according to Bloomberg.
—Smithfield sees higher profits as consumers return to home cooking. Smithfield Foods reported a strong third quarter, with revenue and profit both rising on the back of robust demand for packaged meats and fresh pork. The company said persistent inflation and elevated living costs have encouraged more consumers to cook at home, boosting retail sales. Sales climbed 12.4% to $3.75 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 28. Smithfield now projects operating profits between $1.23 billion and $1.33 billion, maintaining its full-year 2025 sales forecast.
—FOMC preview: Is a dovish surprise looming?
Markets eye potential end to quantitative tightening as Fed readies rate cut
According to the Sevens Report, tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting “may seem less important than usual because the market universally expects a rate cut,” but it remains pivotal for sustaining the rally in equities. The report notes that investors are looking for confirmation that “more cuts are coming after this one,” and warns that failure to signal a continued rate-cut cycle could turn sentiment negative.
The report emphasizes that the bullish narrative rests not on a single rate move but on the perception of “multiple and consistent rate cuts… that ultimately bring fed funds from above 4.0% two months ago to 3.0% (or lower) within the next year or so.”
One possible market-moving surprise, the Sevens Report adds, would be if the Fed “ends Quantitative Tightening,” thereby halting the reduction of its balance sheet and injecting additional liquidity. Such a move would mark “an economic positive (i.e., more stimulus).”
Three scenarios are outlined:
1) Base case: The Fed cuts 25 basis points and maintains forward guidance indicating more easing to come — “not a lot” of market reaction is expected since this outcome is largely priced in, though “stocks could modestly rally.”
2) Dovish surprise: A rate cut and an end to Quantitative Tightening would deliver “a 1% rally in the S&P 500,” with cyclical and tech sectors leading gains and commodities also benefiting from renewed growth optimism.
3) Hawkish shift: If the Fed alters its statement to imply fewer cuts ahead, markets could see “a firm drop,” with the S&P 500 likely “down more than 1%” and the dollar surging as investors price in reduced stimulus.
Bottom Line: Ultimately, the Sevens Report concludes that as long as Chair Powell maintains that “risks to the labor market outweigh high inflation,” investors will remain confident that the Fed “remains sufficiently dovish,” keeping the “bullish cocktail” intact for risk assets.
—Gold slumps as trade progress erodes safe-haven demand
Bullion drops below $3,900 amid U.S./China thaw and ETF outflows
Gold extended its steep selloff Tuesday, falling more than 2% in London as progress in U.S./China trade negotiations eroded investor demand for traditional safe havens. Bullion traded around $3,903 an ounce, deepening Monday’s 3.2% slide after officials from both nations said they had reached agreements on tariffs and export controls.
The metal has now fallen sharply from last week’s record above $4,380, though it remains up nearly 50% for the year, buoyed by central bank buying and investors seeking shelter from ballooning fiscal deficits. Exchange-traded funds shed 448,706 troy ounces of gold Monday — the largest outflow in six months, worth roughly $1.79 billion at spot prices.
At the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference in Kyoto, participants remained optimistic long term, projecting gold could reach nearly $5,000 an ounce within a year, even as analysts warn of near-term weakness. Citigroup strategists forecast bullion could dip to $3,800 over the next three months amid easing geopolitical tensions and expectations that the U.S. government shutdown will soon end.
Meanwhile, attention turns to the Federal Reserve, where policymakers are expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of Wednesday’s meeting.
| AG MARKETS |
—Soybeans extend rally to 15-month high ahead of Trump/Xi meeting
Futures climb as traders anticipate major Chinese purchases tied to emerging trade accord
Soybean futures surged for a second straight session on Tuesday, touching their highest level in 15 months as markets looked ahead to Thursday’s meeting between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping to finalize a sweeping trade deal.
Chicago Board of Trade contracts neared $11 a bushel, extending Monday’s 2.3% jump — the strongest in over two months — after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Beijing was expected to make “substantial” U.S. soybean purchases following progress in weekend negotiations.
However, analysts warned that China’s ample South American supplies and sizable state reserves could curb additional U.S. buying. Beijing has yet to confirm Bessent’s statements, keeping some caution in the market. The Hightower Report cautioned that any agreement would likely be non-binding and “traders should keep risk in check” amid lingering uncertainties. Last year, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled more than $12 billion, underscoring the crop’s central role in U.S./China trade relations.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Oct. 27 | Change from Oct. 24 |
| Corn | December | $4.28 3/4 | +5 1/2¢ |
| Soybeans | January | $10.83 1/4 | +23¢ |
| Soybean Meal | December | $298.20 | +$4.10 |
| Soybean Oil | December | 50.77¢ | +50 pts |
| Wheat (SRW) | December | $5.26 | +13 1/2¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | December | $5.14 1/4 | +12 3/4¢ |
| Spring Wheat | December | $5.60 1/4 | +3 1/4¢ |
| Cotton | December | 64.56¢ | +36 pts |
| Live Cattle | December | $227.175 | -$6.75 |
| Feeder Cattle | January | $334.425 | -$13.75 |
| Lean Hogs | December | $81.50 | -40¢ |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices fell Tuesday, marking their third day of declines as an OPEC+ plan to raise output outweighed optimism about a potential U.S./China trade deal. Brent crude futures dropped 2% to $64.33 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 2% to $60.111.
—Oil prices slipped Monday ahead of OPEC+ meeting as traders eye Trump/Xi talks
Expectations for a production hike and fresh sanctions on Russian crude temper optimism over trade thaw
Oil prices edged lower Monday, pausing after last week’s strong rally, as markets balanced expectations for another OPEC+ output increase against cautious optimism surrounding U.S./China trade discussions and new sanctions targeting Russian crude exports.
Brent crude futures fell 32 cents, 0.5%, to $65.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined 19 cents, 0.3%, to $61.31. Both benchmarks had briefly traded nearly 1% lower earlier in the session.
Traders’ focus is now on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend, where eight member states are expected to back a modest December output increase — part of Saudi Arabia’s effort to reclaim market share.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are preparing for a high-level meeting that could produce a framework delaying new U.S. tariffs and China’s expanded export restrictions on rare earths. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides had reached a “substantial framework” that may ease trade tensions.
Meanwhile, new sanctions on Russia’s largest oil companies are expected to pressure exports, though analysts caution the measures may have limited market impact without wider enforcement.
Demand concerns persist, but strong U.S. fuel consumption data last week provided a floor for prices.
OPEC and its allies have steadily reversed earlier production cuts this year in a bid to defend market share, with Iraq and others signaling support for gradual increases heading into winter.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Trump administration’s Southeast Asia trade deals open new doors for U.S. meat and poultry
Industry group praises elimination of non-tariff barriers, urges Senate confirmation of key negotiator
The Meat Institute welcomed the White House’s announcement of new trade agreements with Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, calling the deals a “big win” for U.S. meat and poultry exporters. President and CEO Julie Anna Potts praised U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Assistant USTR for Agricultural Affairs Julie Callahan for tackling both tariff and non-tariff barriers that have hindered exports for years. “We have worked closely with the Trump Administration to gain better access to growing markets in Southeast Asia and these agreements are a big win for our members,” Potts said.
The agreements remove burdensome establishment and product registration requirements and reinforce the use of internationally recognized science in determining market access. Cambodia and Malaysia also agreed to respect U.S. protections for common meat product names, while negotiations with Thailand and Vietnam continue.
The statement concluded with support for Callahan’s nomination to become USTR Chief Negotiator for Agriculture, urging the Senate Ag Committee to approve her nomination “without delay.”
—Senate braces for showdown over Trump tariffs
Democrats push to block tariffs on Canada, Brazil, and global imports as GOP faces internal rift
The Senate could vote as early as tonight on three Democratic-led measures to overturn President Donald Trump’s tariffs targeting Canada, Brazil, and a sweeping range of global imports. With four Republican senators already siding with Democrats, the resolutions appear poised to pass — assuming full attendance. But even if they do, the House will not likely take up the measures.
GOP leaders are scrambling to prevent further defections that could signal deepening unease with Trump’s trade policies. Vice President JD Vance is expected to attend today’s GOP lunch to rally support and discourage additional breakaways. “The farm industry is really suffering right now, and I’m hoping some of the farm-state senators will reconsider the issue,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a cosponsor of the anti-tariff resolutions.
Among those being closely watched is Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who has voiced skepticism about the tariffs and isn’t seeking re-election, potentially freeing him to defy the White House. Others, like Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), have expressed personal opposition but remain reluctant to publicly break with Trump. “I just want the trade agreements concluded as quickly as possible,” Johnson said. “I don’t see how undermining whatever Trump’s trying to do helps those negotiations get completed.”
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Maine’s Senate race: The first among equals
Democrats’ path to retaking the Senate runs straight through Susan Collins’ home turf
Veteran analyst Charlie Cook writing for National Journal argues that the Maine Senate race is shaping up to be the most pivotal contest of 2026 — and potentially a make-or-break fight for Democratic hopes of reclaiming the chamber. Republican Sen. Susan Collins, now seeking a sixth term, faces what could be a $100 million battle, drawing national attention as Democrats weigh whether to rally behind establishment favorite Gov. Janet Mills or insurgent newcomer Graham Platner.
Cook recalls Collins’ 2020 victory over Democrat Sara Gideon, noting how she outperformed Donald Trump by nearly 57,000 votes and defied pollsters who had consistently shown her trailing. Maine’s unreliable public polling, he cautions, masked the senator’s strength and Democratic missteps four years ago.
The Democratic establishment, led by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and the DSCC, worked for months to recruit Mills, who is term-limited after two successful gubernatorial terms. But before she officially entered, 41-year-old Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and Iraq-Afghanistan veteran, jumped into the race with a viral launch video that drew 2.5 million views and $3.2 million in early donations. Platner’s populist pitch — railing against “oligarchs” and “politicians” — briefly electrified progressives, but Cook writes that “two tons of opposition research” have since cast doubt on his viability.
Why Maine matters. Cook stresses that Democrats “have no margin for error” if they hope to regain the Senate before 2030. With few competitive GOP-held seats on the map — and most other battlegrounds in red or deep purple states — Maine is the one indispensable pickup opportunity. Betting on a rookie, Cook warns, would be “like putting a Little Leaguer in the World Series.”
The race, Cook concludes, will boil down to competing storylines:
•Collins’ case: A seasoned appropriator who “has delivered for Maine” and can now do even more as chair of the Appropriations Committee.
•Mills’ case: A “tested leader” who can stand up to President Trump, unlike Collins, who angered liberals with her votes for Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Trump’s first acquittal.
Botton Line: Even if Platner’s movement continues to draw attention, Cook suggests the real fight — and the Democrats’ future — will hinge on whether Janet Mills can do what Sara Gideon couldn’t: finally unseat Susan Collins.
| CHINA |
—Beijing’s 15th Five-Year Plan pledges support for private sector, financial power ambitions
New proposal signals stronger legal protections for private businesses and accelerated reforms to modernize China’s financial system amid slowing growth
Beijing has unveiled the Communist Party’s Central Committee proposal for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, introducing language that explicitly supports private enterprise and financial modernization — key shifts from the communique released after last week’s Fourth Plenum.
The document pledges to implement a Private Economy Promotion Law ensuring equal access to production factors, fair market participation, and legal protections for private firms. It emphasizes stimulating the “vitality of all types of business entities” and fostering joint development between public and private sectors.
The plan also calls for increased private capital participation in infrastructure under government guidance, aiming to “strengthen the market-driven momentum for effective investment growth.” At the same time, it warns against “unlawful cross-regional enforcement” and profit-driven penalties against firms — a nod to past overreach in regulatory actions.
Financial reform features prominently. The proposal urges the creation of a self-reliant cross-border yuan payment system, greater foreign access to domestic markets, and further development of Shanghai as a global financial hub. It also highlights “green, inclusive, pension, and digital finance” as pillars of a stronger national financial framework.
Finally, the plan’s language reflects a sharper focus on risk prevention and financial regulation, calling for the establishment of a comprehensive system to prevent and resolve financial instability — signaling Beijing’s intent to balance growth ambition with systemic safeguards.
| FOREIGN POLICY |
—Trump’s Argentina gamble: Using U.S. dollars to temper China’s grip
Treasury’s unprecedented peso rescue under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reflects President Trump’s strategy to curb China’s sway in South America — but economists warn the costly gamble may test Argentina’s stability
President Donald Trump’s administration entered uncharted territory in global economic policy — using the U.S. Treasury’s balance sheet to stabilize Argentina’s collapsing currency and, in the process, contain China’s growing foothold in South America.
In his analysis for the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld, a former IMF chief economist, describes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s intervention as “more novel even than the fact of U.S. intervention in an emerging-market economy’s currency markets.” The Treasury has directly bought Argentine pesos, extended a $20 billion swap line, and sought $20 billion in private loans, all designed to prop up President Javier Milei’s reform agenda ahead of legislative elections.
Obstfeld notes that Bessent has framed the peso crisis as a liquidity issue rather than a solvency one, pledging to do “whatever it takes” to avert a collapse. Yet, he warns that “Argentina’s problems run deeper,” pointing to structural flaws and dwindling reserves that threaten the country’s credibility.
The U.S. intervention, Obstfeld argues, is about more than economics. Washington aims to “counter China’s regional influence and gain preferential access to Argentina’s wealth of energy, lithium, and copper.” This geopolitical calculus has made Argentina a proving ground for Trump’s foreign policy strategy — using U.S. financial muscle to align key resource economies with Washington instead of Beijing.
Still, Obstfeld cautions that the strategy carries risks. “It will be an expensive investment, potentially costly in terms of U.S. domestic backlash and with an uncertain ultimate payoff,” he wrote — a warning that now takes on new meaning after President Javier Milei’s decisive midterm victory on Oct. 26.
The strong showing by Milei’s La Libertad Avanza coalition — which captured roughly 40% of the national vote and key provincial gains — has temporarily stabilized Argentina’s markets and strengthened Washington’s hand. For President Trump, the outcome marks a validation of his financial intervention to counter China’s regional influence and secure U.S. access to Argentina’s lithium and energy reserves.
Yet Obstfeld’s caution endures: sustaining confidence will require more than electoral momentum. Argentina’s deep structural imbalances and reliance on U.S. support mean that Trump’s bid to reassert U.S. dominance in Latin America remains a high-stakes gamble — one that could still unravel if Milei’s fragile coalition or the peso falters anew.
| FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—Trump administration delays release of new dietary guidelines amid shutdown
Kennedy’s “Make America Healthy Again” vision stalls as agencies target December release after missed deadlines
The Trump administration has postponed the release of the nation’s updated dietary guidelines, with officials citing the ongoing government shutdown as the main cause of delay. The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and USDA now expect to publish the revised nutrition recommendations in December — missing both the original September goal and an October extension.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had championed the overhaul as central to his Make America Healthy Again initiative, aiming to simplify federal nutrition advice and emphasize whole foods, including greater consumption of animal fats and proteins. “There’s a tremendous amount of emerging science that talks about the need for protein in our diet and more fats in our diet,” Kennedy said earlier this year.
The guidelines, updated every five years, carry broad implications for school meals, SNAP benefits, and public-health programs, shaping billions in federal food spending. A White House official called the delay “another unfortunate consequence” of the Democratic-led shutdown.
Kennedy’s proposed changes — which reportedly elevate saturated fats and scale back prior limits — mark a sharp break from longstanding federal recommendations urging Americans to minimize red meat and full-fat dairy consumption. Nutrition advocates warn the shift could undermine decades of heart-health progress, while Kennedy and Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Marty Makary argue they are “cleaning house on the food pyramid,” rejecting what they describe as outdated, industry-influenced science.
Of note: With the shutdown freezing final interagency reviews, officials say they remain committed to releasing the new guidance by the statutory Dec. 31 deadline, though its rollout may now extend into the holiday recess.
—NPPC urges FDA to reconsider ‘ultra-processed’ label ahead of dietary guidelines
Pork producers call for a nutrition-focused framework to guide food labeling and protect consumer access to safe, nutrient-rich products.
As the Food and Drug Administration prepares its formal definition of “ultra-processed foods” in advance of the new Dietary Guidelines for Americans, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) is urging the agency to take a more balanced, science-based approach that focuses on nutritional value rather than manufacturing methods.
In a statement submitted to the Trump administration and FDA, NPPC warned that an overly broad or poorly defined “ultra-processed” category could unfairly stigmatize pork products and other safe, nutrient-dense foods. The group called on FDA to avoid relying on the controversial NOVA classification system, which categorizes foods based primarily on how they are processed rather than their health benefits.
Foods should not be labeled “ultra-processed” simply because they include ingredients that enhance food safety, shelf stability, or nutrient availability, NPPC emphasized — all of which protect public health and ensure high-quality protein reaches consumers. The group also urged FDA to ensure any definition aligns with the agency’s existing Standards of Identity, which govern what specific foods must contain and how they are formulated.
Given the lack of consensus on what constitutes “ultra-processed,” NPPC encouraged FDA to “elevate the importance of nutritional composition” and avoid penalizing safe food processing techniques. As an alternative, NPPC proposed using the term “discretionary foods” to describe items of lower nutritional quality — a framework that would refocus dietary policy on nutrition rather than processing labels.
| TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS |
—Trump’s shipbuilding push gains steam amid shutdown
Senators rally behind Trump’s maritime expansion as the administration eyes Asia for shipbuilding alliances
President Donald Trump’s campaign to rebuild America’s shipbuilding industry is moving forward even as the government shutdown continues, with a Senate Commerce Committee hearing Tuesday spotlighting bipartisan backing for expanding U.S. maritime capacity.
The U.S. produces just 0.1% of the world’s commercial ships, compared with China’s dominance of the sector, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Trump’s April 9 executive order and new port fees on Chinese vessels aim to reclaim lost ground and strengthen U.S. competitiveness.
“He brought velocity to government,” said Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), adding that the nation must “move with urgency.” Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) agreed, noting that Trump’s plan could bring manufacturing jobs to Great Lakes states: “Just as you can build auto parts, you can build ship parts and submarine parts and anything.”
At an Oct. 22 hearing, Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said ramping up domestic production could open “nascent industries like seabed mining and nuclear-powered shipping.” The administration’s Maritime Action Plan, due Nov. 5, will outline the next steps.
Trump has also made shipbuilding a focal point of his Asia trip. In Japan — which builds 13% of the world’s ships — he vowed, “We lost that industry, but we’ll get that industry back,” and is seeking cooperation with both Tokyo and Seoul. Meanwhile, NATO ally Finland recently agreed to help restart U.S. icebreaker production for Arctic operations.
A White House spokesperson, Anna Kelly, said Trump has secured a $43 billion shipbuilding investment through a Republican-led tax and spending package earlier this year. But some warn that overly protectionist measures could backfire. Louis Sola, former Federal Maritime Commission chair, cautioned that “restrictiveness does nothing but hurt the American consumer … it hurts agricultural exports. It hurts everybody.”
| WEATHER |
— Hurricane Melissa becomes record-breaking Category 5 storm
Jamaica braces for catastrophic landfall as deadly system unleashes extreme winds and flooding
Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a catastrophic Category 5 storm, packing sustained winds of 175 mph — the strongest tropical cyclone anywhere in the world this year. The National Hurricane Center warned of “extensive infrastructure damage” and “life-threatening conditions” as the storm barrels toward Jamaica, where landfall is expected within hours.
Authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders across low-lying and coastal areas, urging residents to seek higher ground. Forecasts project up to 40 inches of rain, a 13-foot storm surge, and sustained winds near 160 mph — conditions expected to isolate entire communities and overwhelm emergency services.
Melissa has already claimed seven lives across the Caribbean: three in Haiti, three in Jamaica, and one in the Dominican Republic. Officials fear the toll could rise sharply as the storm makes landfall and communications break down across the island.
—NWS outlook: Showers and thunderstorms along with some gusty coastal winds for the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic Tuesday… …Storm system to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms from the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Tuesday-Wednesday… …Much cooler, below average temperatures will continue to overspread much of the central and eastern U.S. into mid-week… …Pacific system will bring lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest Tuesday.
