China Purchases First U.S. Soybeans of Season
Fed watch today | Senate vote against Trump’s Brazil tariffs going nowhere in House
Link: Bipartisan Backlash Builds Against Trump’s Argentina Beef Plan
Link: Senate Judiciary Committee Hearing: Competition in Seed & Fertilizer Industries
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24
Today’s Updates:
UP FRONT
— Markets, Fed, Gov’t shutdown and Asia trip
ASIA & U.S./CHINA
— China confirms Trump/Xi meeting in Busan
— China’s COFCO buys three cargoes of U.S. soybeans
— Congress eyes farm “bridge” aid despite potential China soybean purchases
— Trump, Xi to discuss lowering China tariffs for fentanyl crackdown
— Beijing sounds positive note on Sino-American relations
— Japan Inc. eyes $400B in U.S. projects under Trump/Takaichi pact
— Trump, Lee seal South Korea trade pact; eyes turn to Xi summit
TARIFFS & TRADE POLITICS
— Senate votes to end Brazil tariffs; House unlikely to follow
— Senators warn Vance beef-import plan risks backlash
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN & SNAP
— U.S. gov’t shutdown standoff drags into 29th day
— Dozens of states sue Trump administration over planned food-stamp cuts
U.S.–CANADA
— Trump dines with Carney despite anger over tariff commercial
CLIMATE
— Bill Gates reverses climate-doom stance
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Fed Day and Big Tech earnings
— Equities yesterday: major indexes edge higher
— Copper prices hit a record high
FED
— Fed set to cut rates, with limited guidance
AG MARKETS
— Japan nears deal to reopen market to Brazilian beef
— Idaho leads push for U.S. potato access in Japan
— Agriculture markets yesterday
FARM INPUTS
— Hearing spotlights seed and fertilizer industry consolidation
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices steady on U.S. draws and Xi/Trump outlook
— Oil falls for third straight day on Russia sanctions, OPEC+ outlook
— EPA extends RFS ICR comment period
TRADE POLICY: SCOTUS CASE
— Advocacy teams face off over Trump’s tariff program
CONGRESS
— USTR nominee Julie Callahan faces Senate scrutiny
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Speaker Johnson says no to Trump third term
— Vance praises Rubio amid 2028 speculation
BORDER, IMMIGRATION & LABOR
— Congress divided on fixing America’s farm-labor crisis
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: storms from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Northeast;
much cooler east/central U.S.
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Oct. 29, 2025
—Up front: Markets, Fed, Gov’t Shutdown and Asia TripGlobal markets are juggling multiple drivers today: President Donald Trump’s trip to Asia, reported Chinese buying of some U.S. soybeans, a heavy slate of Big Tech earnings, a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting set for 2 PM ET, and the 29th day of the U.S gov’t shutdown with court challenges galore on the lack of funding for SNAP.Fed decision: Policymakers are widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second reduction this year after September’s.Data gap: The ongoing government shutdown has deprived the Fed of critical data it normally relies on, including nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, PPI, import/export prices, and the core PCE inflation index. The one key figure available — September’s delayed CPI report — showed core inflation at 3.0%, down from 3.1% in August but still above target.Balance sheet outlook: Beyond rates, several Wall Street strategists expect the Fed to signal an end to balance sheet runoff by year-end amid stress in short-term funding markets. Chair Jay Powell has already hinted at such a move, noting earlier this month that reserves are nearing levels the Fed considers “ample.”In focus: Markets are watching how Powell addresses missing data, funding strains, and the outlook for further policy easing — all against the backdrop of a volatile global backdrop shaped by Trump’s Asia trip and corporate earnings. —China confirms Trump/Xi meeting in BusanBeijing says summit at APEC sidelines will focus on “strategic and long-term” issues in U.S./China relationsChina’s Foreign Ministry has formally confirmed that President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30 during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, according to the Xinhua News Agency. The session, expected to last three to four hours, according to Trump, will see the two leaders “exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of mutual interest,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said at a press briefing. Trump will meet Xi at 11 am local time on Thursday in South Korea, according to the White House. Guo emphasized that head-of-state diplomacy plays an “irreplaceable role” in guiding U.S./China relations and added that both sides aim to achieve “positive outcomes” from the discussions. The meeting is expected to cover strategic and long-term issues central to stabilizing ties between Washington and Beijing. This is the first time Beijing has officially confirmed the Trump-Xi meeting, signaling a significant step ahead of what could be a pivotal exchange in shaping the next phase of U.S./China engagement. —China’s COFCO buys three cargoes of U.S. soybeans amid tariff diplomacyReuters reports state-run trader COFCO purchased 180,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeansas Beijing signals goodwill ahead of Trump/Xi talks China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO has purchased roughly 180,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans — equivalent to three cargoes — marking a tangible gesture ahead of President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan. Reuters reported Wednesday. The shipments are booked for loading and possible delivery later this year, according to people familiar with the matter. China’s purchases will not be reported at the U.S. gov’t is closed. An analyst details that U.S. beans are cheaper than Brazilian beans through December, with PNW the most inexpensive. Jan forward, Brazilian beans become more inexpensive. Brazil has a $14 ton freight advantage over China vs the Gulf. The PNW is about $10/mt cheaper in freight to China. The CIF basis firmed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said that he expected the Asian nation to make “substantial” soybean purchases after American and Chinese negotiators came to terms on a range of contentious points at talks over the weekend. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the purchases, the first of the latest soybean harvest, represent a “positive step forward” for U.S. farmers. “This purchase, coming directly ahead of the Trump/Xi talks, shows that America means business and that we will restore balance, give U.S. producers the opportunities they’ve earned, and send a message that when America leads in agriculture, the world listens,” Rollins said in a post to X Wednesday (link). “This is a great start as we continue to build a system where American agriculture thrives and competes on fair terms.” Of note: While some analysts have sought to downplay the move, describing it as “just” a memorandum of understanding or a semi-commitment rather than a firm trade deal, the purchase underscores growing optimism that agricultural trade could be part of an emerging détente between Washington and Beijing. Traders note that even a modest resumption of Chinese buying sends a signal of intent at a time when Beijing is balancing food security needs with the political optics of tariff negotiations. The U.S. soybean industry, meanwhile, has been closely watching for signs of renewed Chinese demand after months of muted exports and rising domestic stockpiles. The same focus is taking place in other U.S. ag sectors, including sorghum and cotton. —Congress eyes farm “bridge” aid despite potential China soybean purchasesLawmakers say Trump-Xi deal wouldn’t erase need for support as tariffs, uncertainty weigh on 2026 farm outlook Several members of Congress are signaling that even if President Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping results in renewed Chinese commitments to buy U.S. soybeans, producers will still need financial assistance to stay afloat next year. Senate Ag Appropriations Subcommittee Chair John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said lawmakers are preparing to provide a financial “bridge” to help farmers operate through 2026, citing lingering trade disruptions and tariff uncertainty. Others echoed that view, pointing to the ongoing market volatility tied to Trump’s tariff strategy. Congress is expected to revisit the issue of farm relief once it reconvenes, expanding beyond the support measures USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has pledged to launch after the gov’t reopens. While some analysts suggest that Chinese purchases could lift prices and partially offset the need for aid, key lawmakers insist the farm economy remains fragile and that relief will still be necessary even with resumed export sales to China. A congressional farmer aid effort is expected later this year, most likely part of a spending package.—Trump, Xi to discuss lowering China tariffs for fentanyl crackdownU.S. may halve 20% levies in exchange for Beijing curbing chemical exports fueling synthetic opioid crisis The United States is preparing to roll back some tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing intensifies its crackdown on exports of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl, according to the Wall Street Journal. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to discuss the potential trade framework during their meeting Thursday. Under the proposal, Washington would reduce the 20% “fentanyl-related” tariff on Chinese products by as much as half, contingent on China enforcing tighter controls on the export of synthetic opioid ingredients. The move would lower the average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods from roughly 55% to about 45%, bringing it closer to the rates imposed on other trading partners. China purchases of U.S. soybeans and other ag products. The framework, developed in talks led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, also includes expected Chinese commitments to purchase significant volumes of American soybeans — a potential reprieve for U.S. farmers who lost access to Chinese markets after Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs earlier this year. And China will also likely purchase U.S. sorghum and cotton, but details are sparse. “I believe they are going to delay [the rare-earth controls] for a year while they re-examine it,” Bessent told ABC News, suggesting that Trump’s earlier threat to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports is now off the table. The agreement would also cover port fees, reciprocal tariff reductions, and cooperation on export controls. Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said both sides have reached “preliminary consensus” on these issues, emphasizing that the two nations seek to avoid further “turbulences and twists and turns.” Meanwhile, FBI Director Kash Patel is expected to travel to Beijing to coordinate on fentanyl enforcement. The negotiations, if finalized, could mark a turning point in U.S./China economic relations by linking public health cooperation with tariff relief — a rare fusion of trade and narcotics policy. —Beijing sounds positive note on Sino/American relations as Trump teases China tripChinese state media and diplomats strike an optimistic tone following Malaysia trade talks as Trump hints at visiting Beijing next year Beijing’s messaging toward Washington has brightened notably since this week’s trade discussions in Malaysia, signaling what analysts at Trivium China describe as a “calibrated effort to stabilize the tone of the relationship” amid months of tension. A People’s Daily commentary published Oct. 27 under the authoritative Zhong Sheng byline — typically used to convey the Party’s official stance on foreign affairs — praised the “hard-won outcomes of U.S./China trade talks.” The piece emphasized that while differences between the two nations are “natural,” they “can be properly handled” through dialogue and mutual respect, adding that “China and the U.S. have both the capability and wisdom to find a path forward.” On the same day, Foreign Minister Wang Yi echoed that sentiment in a call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, saying the Malaysia talks “prove that it is possible to stabilize and advance the bilateral relationship,” according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Trivium China noted that this rhetorical shift underscores Beijing’s desire for “predictability and a working framework” with Washington, even if deeper reconciliation remains unlikely. The firm added that Chinese officials appear to be “seizing the moment to accentuate the positives” ahead of an expected meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump. Trump, meanwhile, told reporters that he is likely to travel to China next year, a move that could offer Beijing a chance to roll out red-carpet diplomacy and showcase trade and investment opportunities designed to appeal directly to the American president. —Japan Inc. eyes $400 billion in U.S. projects under Trump/Takaichi PactSoftBank, Toshiba, Mitsubishi Heavy, and other giants unveil plans spanning nuclear power, AI, and energy infrastructure as Tokyo moves to fulfill its $550 billion investment pledge Japanese conglomerates are lining up massive investments in the United States as part of Tokyo’s $550 billion pledge under its September trade deal with President Donald Trump. According to a joint list released Tuesday by the U.S. and Japan, at least 21 potential projects are under consideration across energy, AI, and critical-mineral sectors — together representing nearly $400 billion in business scale. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toshiba, and IHI are weighing participation in a Westinghouse-led plan to build nuclear and small modular reactors worth up to $100 billion. Mitsubishi Electric may supply $30 billion in data-center equipment, while Panasonic’s U.S. energy-storage expansion could total $15 billion. SoftBank, meanwhile, aims to develop and operate $25 billion in large-scale power infrastructure. The investment list coincided with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s first summit with Trump in Tokyo, where she reaffirmed Japan’s goal of deepening economic ties and securing tariff caps of 15 percent on Japanese imports, including autos. Trump told reporters that Toyota plans more than $10 billion in new U.S. plants — though the automaker said it was verifying the claim. Japanese firms have already begun ramping up U.S. commitments: Fujifilm’s $3.2 billion biopharma facility in North Carolina, Takeda’s $30 billion five-year investment plan, and Jera’s $1.5 billion shale-gas acquisition plus LNG import deals with Alaska LNG. Aviation groups ANA, JAL, and Skymark also expect to order about 100 Boeing jets. Together, the investments mark Japan’s most sweeping U.S. engagement in decades — driven by both economic necessity under Trump’s tariff regime and Takaichi’s bid to solidify a personal alliance with Washington. —Trump, Lee Seal South Korea Trade Pact; Eyes Turn to Xi SummitDeal secures $350B investment pledge, sets stage for potential tariff easing with China President Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung finalized their long-delayed trade accord Wednesday in Gyeongju, cementing a $350 billion investment pledge that both leaders hailed as a breakthrough for bilateral relations. Details: Under the pact, South Korea will invest $200 billion in cash payments over several years and an additional $150 billion in U.S. shipbuilding ventures. In return, Seoul will avoid the steepest U.S. tariffs on its exports. Profits from the projects will be split evenly until the initial investments are repaid, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick chairing a new joint investment committee to oversee implementation. Trump called the agreement “pretty much finalized,” praising the “dramatic progress” achieved during his visit. Lee described the deal as a “turning point” for the alliance, underscoring its importance in stabilizing trade and defense ties. Looking ahead to his upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, Trump said he anticipates “a very good outcome for our country and for the world.” Negotiators from both sides have reportedly drafted a framework to pause new tariffs and Chinese rare-earth export controls, while Reuters as noted confirmed Beijing has purchased its first cargoes of U.S. soybeans in months — a possible goodwill signal ahead of the talks. Arriving hours after a North Korean missile test, Trump downplayed security concerns, pledging U.S. support to “straighten out” tensions on the peninsula. The visit concluded with a ceremonial dinner, where Lee presented Trump with South Korea’s highest honor, the Grand Order of Mugunghwa. —Senate votes to end Brazil tariffs in bipartisan rebuke of Trump’s trade actions; House will not follow Five Republicans join Democrats to roll back 50% levies; Kaine and Paul warn of presidential overreach under “emergency” powers The Senate voted 52–48 on Tuesday to end President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on imports from Brazil, marking the first in a series of bipartisan efforts this week to curb the president’s trade war and challenge his use of emergency authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval. Five Republicans — Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina — joined Democrats in passing the resolution, which seeks to terminate the emergency declaration underpinning the tariffs. Sen. Rand Paul, the resolution’s lone Republican sponsor, criticized the administration’s justification, saying, “Emergencies are like war, famine, tornado. Not liking someone’s tariffs is not an emergency. It’s an abuse of the emergency power.” Democratic sponsor Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) framed the vote as a constitutional issue, arguing that Congress must reclaim its authority over trade, war, and appropriations powers: “Are we just going to allow those powers to be taken over by this president or any president?” While the measure faces long odds in the Republican-controlled House, it reflects growing unease — even within Trump’s party — over the economic toll of tariffs. McConnell said in a statement that “tariffs make both building and buying in America more expensive,” pledging to support additional resolutions targeting Trump’s levies on Canada and a broader global tariff rate. Other Republicans, including Sens. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and John Hoeven (R-N.D.), opposed the resolution, arguing the tariffs were needed to “level the playing field” for U.S. exporters. But even among opponents, frustration over retaliatory trade effects — especially on soybean producers — was evident. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said a potential Trump/Xi trade deal that boosts soybean sales “would make all forgiven.” The Senate’s action underscores mounting bipartisan concern that Trump’s invocation of Cold War-era emergency powers for politically motivated tariffs — such as in defense of Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro — has stretched executive authority beyond its intent. —Senators warn Vance beef import plan risks political backlashRepublican lawmakers urge stronger support for U.S. cattle producers amid Argentina tariff expansion Vice President JD Vance faced a chorus of concern from Senate Republicans during a Tuesday lunch over the administration’s plan to quadruple the tariff rate quota (TRQ) for Argentine beef imports to 80,000 metric tons. “There was unanimity in the room that we should be standing strongly with our cattle ranchers,” said Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), adding that Vance “was listening and hearing the strenuous views from multiple senators.” Despite the pushback, reports note that Vance gave no indication the administration would reverse course. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said his focus was on “working with our ranchers to grow our herds and also work on the supply chain so that prices pass through to the consumer in the grocery store.” The exchange reflects the political strain created by President Trump’s push to boost beef imports from Argentina to ease record-high retail prices — a move that many Republicans warn could undercut domestic producers and highlight the broader risks of direct government intervention in agricultural markets. Link to special report on this topic. —U.S. gov’t shutdown standoff drags into 29th dayNo breakthrough as ACA/ObamaCare premiums and SNAP funding loom large The government shutdown entered its 29th day with no tangible progress toward a resolution, despite murmurs of growing unease within both parties. While some lawmakers acknowledge “cracks” in partisan unity, neither side has shifted positions on reopening the government via a “clean” continuing resolution. The prolonged stalemate threatens to collide with key deadlines. The Affordable Care Act’s open enrollment period begins Nov. 1, with substantial premium hikes expected following the lapse of subsidy funding. Meanwhile, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins reiterated that USDA lacks the $9.2 billion needed to sustain Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits in November, rejecting claims from lawmakers that the department could reallocate funds. Vice President JD Vance said the administration will ensure military personnel continue to receive pay, averting one flashpoint. But with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) ruling out piecemeal funding bills and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) signaling little interest in partial reopenings, hopes for a near-term resolution are fading fast absent a major policy shift from the Trump administration or congressional leadership. Meanwhile, a federal judge yesterday extended a temporary ban on firing federal workers during the shutdown. Air traffic controller union officials said some of their members have picked up second jobs to bring in money while they work without pay. Of note: Some observers think a resolution could come after next Tuesday’s elections. —Dozens of states sue Trump administration over planned food stamp cutsGovernors and attorneys general seek emergency court order to compel SNAP funding amid shutdown More than two dozen states, joined by the District of Columbia, filed suit Tuesday against the Trump administration for refusing to use emergency funds to sustain the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) during the ongoing government shutdown. The lawsuit, lodged in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts, argues that the administration has a legal duty to maintain the food aid lifeline for roughly 42 million Americans facing hunger starting Nov. 1. The coalition — including Arizona, California, Massachusetts, and New York — is asking the court to order USDA to tap its $5–$6 billion contingency fund to issue at least partial benefits. New York Attorney General Letitia James said, “SNAP is one of our nation’s most effective tools to fight hunger… There is no excuse for this administration to abandon families who rely on SNAP.” USDA last week reversed earlier assurances that it could reprogram emergency funds to prevent an interruption in benefits. A memo claimed the reserve was “not legally available” during the shutdown except in natural disasters. USDA has since warned that states attempting to finance food stamps on their own may not be reimbursed. A banner on the agency’s website Tuesday declared, “Bottom line, the well has run dry… there will be no benefits issued November 01.” The legal fight underscores President Donald Trump’s selective use of executive powers during the prolonged shutdown. While his administration has redirected billions to border enforcement, troops, and farm assistance — all key political priorities — it has refused similar maneuvers for food aid. Earlier this year, SNAP was reduced as part of the administration’s tax-cut package. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins warned earlier this month, “You’re talking about millions of vulnerable families… that are not going to have access to these programs because of this shutdown.” Millions Face Loss of Food Aid as SNAP Funding Runs Out Amid ShutdownOver 41 million Americans will lose grocery assistance in November unless Congress acts to reopen the government USDA has confirmed that the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is out of funds, meaning more than 41 million Americans will lose access to federal food aid beginning Saturday if the government remains shut down. SNAP disbursed $7.8 billion in May 2025, the most recent month with available data, with nearly half of that going to just seven large states. California received more than $1 billion, followed by New York ($647 million), Texas ($614 million), Florida ($536 million), Illinois ($368 million), Pennsylvania ($368 million), and Ohio ($356 million). While big states will absorb the largest dollar losses, smaller states with higher participation rates will see proportionally greater hardship. Nationwide, about 12% of Americans rely on SNAP, but participation exceeds that level in several states and the District of Columbia. New Mexico leads the nation at 21%, followed by D.C. (20 %), Oregon (18%), and both Louisiana and Oklahoma (17%). Roughly 15% of residents in West Virginia, Nevada, and Michigan also depend on the program. The funding lapse has sparked bipartisan finger-pointing, though both parties represent states heavily affected. New York Democrats Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries lead constituencies with high SNAP use, while Louisiana Republicans Mike Johnson and Steve Scalise represent areas where 17% of residents receive assistance. Red and blue states are nearly identical in participation rates — 12% in Trump-voting states and 13% in those that backed Kamala Harris in 2024. According to the Trump administration, contingency funds cannot legally be used to cover regular SNAP benefits. Without congressional action, federal food assistance will cease at the start of November. —Trump dines with Carney despite anger over tariff commercialPresident accuses Canada of meddling as Ontario ad sparks new tariff threat President Donald Trump dined face-to-face with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in South Korea Wednesday night, just hours after declaring he hadn’t come to “see Canada.” The awkward encounter followed a week of rising tension after Ontario aired an ad using a Ronald Reagan speech to criticize Trump’s tariff regime — an act the president claimed was meant to sway the U.S. Supreme Court ahead of next week’s hearing on his trade powers. Trump, who announced plans for a new 10% tariff on Canadian goods during his Asia trip, told reporters he had “no interest” in meeting Carney and was “happy with the deal we have right now.” Yet both men found themselves seated across from one another at a dinner hosted by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Gyeongju. Carney sought to defuse the dispute, saying Canada was “ready when appropriate” to resume trade talks and that both nations had made “considerable progress” on steel, aluminum, and energy cooperation. Trump, however, dismissed claims that Ontario — not Ottawa — had funded the ad, insisting “the prime minister knew. Everybody knew.” —Bill Gates reverses his climate doom stanceMicrosoft founder now says humanity will “live and thrive” despite global warming Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, long known for warning of apocalyptic climate threats, has dramatically softened his stance — saying that while global warming poses serious challenges, it will not spell humanity’s end. In a blog post published this week, Gates, 70, wrote that “although climate change will have serious consequences — particularly for people in the poorest countries — it will not lead to humanity’s demise. People will be able to live and thrive in most places on Earth for the foreseeable future.” The remarks mark a sharp pivot from the “doomsday outlook” that has characterized much of Gates’s previous advocacy. In 2021, he authored How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, warning that global warming “could be worse” than the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, he argues that progress should be judged not only by temperature metrics but by “our impact on human welfare.” Gates’s philanthropic foundation has poured billions into climate-related technologies — from carbon capture to solar dimming experiments — and he acknowledged in his post the criticism he’s faced for traveling the world in a $70 million private jet. He added that he offsets his emissions “with legitimate carbon credits.” Bottom Line: The reversal underscores a broader shift among some climate advocates toward emphasizing adaptation and resilience, rather than apocalypse. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: All eyes are on the Federal Reserve today — and on major tech earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta. It’s Fed Day with the FOMC Meeting Announcement due to hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The Dow opened 120 points higher. Markets advanced after Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner predicted that U.S. stocks are poised to extend their record-setting rally. Nvidia becomes first company to reach $5 trillion valuation, fueled by AI boom. Meanwhile, copper prices hit a new high amid optimism over easing U.S./China tensions (details below). In Asia, Japan +2.2%. Hong Kong closed. China +0.7%. India +0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.5%. Paris flat. Frankfurt flat.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Oct. 28 | Point Difference from Oct. 27 | % Difference from Oct. 27 |
| Dow | 47,706.37 | +161.78 | +0.34% |
| Nasdaq | 23,827.49 | +190.04 | +0.80 |
| S&P 500 | 6,890.89 | +15.73 | +0.23% |
—Copper prices hit a record high in London, fueled by hopes of an imminent thaw in U.S./China tensions that added momentum to a rally already driven by mine-supply disruptions and tariff-related trade shifts. The metal has climbed more than 25% so far this year and is on track for its strongest annual performance since 2017.
—Fed set to cut rates, but Powell likely to offer few clues
Officials expected to trim rates by 25 basis points as divisions deepen over inflation and future policy direction
Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to lower the benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point at today’s FOMC meeting, while Chair Jerome Powell is likely to offer little guidance on what comes next amid growing divisions inside the central bank. The decision, due this afternoon, follows softer-than-expected inflation data and rising concerns over labor-market weakness. Powell has emphasized employment risks in recent remarks, signaling that as long as inflation expectations remain stable, the Fed can steer policy back toward a “neutral” stance.
Yet officials remain split. A large minority continues to warn that stubbornly high services prices and new tariff threats from China and Canada could reignite inflation pressures. Fed Governor Stephen Miran is expected to dissent again, favoring a larger half-point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid may vote to hold rates steady.
Analysts also see a growing chance the committee will halt the runoff of Treasury securities from its $6.6 trillion balance sheet amid recent signs of money-market stress.
With the U.S. gov’t shutdown delaying key economic data, Powell is expected to keep his comments cautious.
Sevens Report: Fed Expected to Cut 25 Basis Points, No Major Surprises Anticipated Analysts see minimal market reaction unless Fed ends quantitative tightening; warn of a “painful drop” if guidance turns hawkishThe Sevens Report’s “Abbreviated FOMC Preview” projects a straightforward outcome from today’s Federal Reserve meeting — a 25-basis-point rate cut with no change to forward guidance. According to the report, such an outcome would likely lead to little market movement, noting that “perhaps a mild rally [could follow] if earnings are good but there shouldn’t be material moves in stocks, Treasuries or the dollar.”The publication outlines three scenarios:Base Case: A standard 25-bp cut with unchanged guidance, viewed as neutral.Dovish Case: A rate cut combined with an end to quantitative tightening (QT), which “would provide a dovish surprise via the ending of QT,” potentially extending the rally and “perhaps [pushing] the S&P 500 to 7,000 by week’s end.”Hawkish Case: A rate cut coupled with revised forward guidance implying fewer cuts ahead. Such a shift could trigger “a potentially painful drop of 1% or (most likely) more,” the report warns, adding that it “would damage the idea of an ongoing rate-cut cycle.”In sum, the Sevens Report expects the FOMC decision to maintain the prevailing policy narrative — unless the Fed unexpectedly ends QT or signals that the current rate-cut cycle is nearing an end. |
| AG MARKETS |
—Japan nears deal to reopen market to Brazilian beef
Tokyo’s high-end market could unlock billions for Brazil’s exporters after 25-year hiatus
Japan is close to approving Brazilian beef imports for the first time in a quarter-century, according to Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro, who said the final sanitary details are being completed and the opening could occur by late 2025.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva personally helped push the negotiations during his March visit to Tokyo, framing the move as a pillar of Brazil’s export-diversification drive amid slowing U.S. sales caused by Trump-era 50% tariffs.
Japan’s entry would give Brazil — the world’s largest beef exporter — direct access to one of the globe’s most lucrative and tightly regulated markets, now dominated by the U.S. and Australia. Fávaro called the anticipated approval a “historic achievement,” while JBS CEO Gilberto Tomazoni said Japan represents “a premium market where top-quality cuts can be exported.”
Since Lula’s return to office in 2023, Brazil has opened 297 agricultural markets and aims for 500 by 2026, using trade liberalization to showcase its sanitary standards and sustainability credentials across Asia.
—Idaho leads renewed U.S. push for potato market access in Japan
Governor Brad Little presses administration to deliver long-sought win for growers amid ongoing trade talks
Idaho Governor Brad Little (R) and U.S. potato industry leaders are intensifying efforts to secure long-denied access to Japan’s lucrative fresh-potato market, urging the Trump administration to make the issue a priority in ongoing bilateral trade negotiations.
The campaign, detailed in Inside U.S. Trade, highlights how the nation’s largest potato-producing state is seeking to leverage Washington’s broader agricultural diplomacy with Tokyo to break a decades-long impasse. Japan has long prohibited imports of U.S. table-stock potatoes — citing plant-health concerns — even as it remains a major buyer of processed potato products such as frozen fries.
“This has been on our radar for more than twenty years,” Governor Little told InsideTrade. “Our growers can compete with anyone in the world if given a fair chance. We just need the door to open.”
A long-sought market. For Idaho and other major potato-producing states, Japan represents one of the few remaining developed markets still closed to U.S. fresh potatoes. Industry groups say access could generate tens of millions of dollars in new annual export revenue and set a precedent for future produce market openings.
Despite repeated discussions under prior trade frameworks, Tokyo has maintained strict phytosanitary restrictions, requiring pest-risk assessments that have yet to be finalized. U.S. officials and grower organizations have grown increasingly frustrated with the slow pace of progress.
“Japan’s stance has simply not kept pace with international standards,” said Kam Quarles, CEO of the National Potato Council. “Idaho farmers produce some of the safest, highest-quality potatoes in the world, and Japan’s consumers deserve access to them.”
Tying potatoes to broader trade talks. The renewed lobbying effort comes as President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida weigh agricultural components in ongoing U.S./Japan trade discussions. According to InsideTrade, U.S. negotiators have been urged to incorporate fresh potatoes into those talks as part of a broader push on farm market access.
Governor Little’s office has been in direct contact with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, emphasizing that progress on potatoes would deliver tangible benefits to rural economies across the Mountain West.
“This isn’t just about one crop,” Little said. “It’s about showing that U.S. agriculture can win new markets and that this administration can deliver concrete results for our farmers.”
Economic and diplomatic stakes. For the Trump administration, advancing the issue could serve as a visible agricultural victory during a politically sensitive trade season. Analysts note that it could also help balance Japan’s access to U.S. markets for beef and other commodities. At the same time, the push underscores a broader trend of state-level leaders engaging directly in international trade diplomacy — a sign of how regional economic priorities are shaping U.S. trade policy.
Bottom Line:If the effort succeeds, the opening of Japan’s market to U.S. fresh potatoes would mark one of the most significant agricultural access wins since the mid-2010s — and potentially a model for similar campaigns involving other perishable crops.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Oct. 28 | Change from Oct. 27 |
| Corn | December | $4.32 | +3 1/4¢ |
| Soybeans | January | $10.95 1/4 | +10 1/4¢ |
| Soybean Meal | December | $306.50 | +$8.30 |
| Soybean Oil | December | 50.26¢ | -51 pts |
| Wheat (SRW) | December | $5.29 | +3¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | December | $5.20 | +5 3/4¢ |
| Spring Wheat | December | $5.61 3/4 | +1 1/2¢ |
| Cotton | December | 65.05¢ | +49 pts |
| Live Cattle | December | $226.575 | -$0.60 |
| Feeder Cattle | January | $324.875 | -$9.55 |
| Lean Hogs | December | $80.825 | -67 1/2¢ |
| FARM INPUTS FOCUS OF HEARING |
—Hearing spotlights seed and fertilizer industry consolidation
Lawmakers warn that high input costs and tariffs are crushing farmers as global trade shifts intensify
U.S. lawmakers from both parties voiced growing alarm over the concentration of power in the seed and fertilizer industries during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Tuesday, warning that consolidation and tariffs are driving record farm costs and threatening the survival of family farms. Link to special report.
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) called for the elimination of phosphate fertilizer duties imposed during the Biden administration, arguing that the tariffs have “hurt farmers” already squeezed by limited competition. He urged the Trump administration to lift the import duty on Moroccan phosphate and pushed for passage of his bipartisan Fertilizer Research Act to require USDA to study competition and pricing. “We want better yields and healthier soils,” Grassley said, “but we also want competition that’s fair, transparent, and local.”
Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) warned that corporate consolidation has led to “an extinction-level event” for family farms, saying large agribusinesses have “captured the first link in our food chain.” Booker criticized seed patenting practices that prevent farmers from saving seeds, describing it as “corporate control of our food system.”
Panelist Diana Moss of the Progressive Policy Institute testified that two companies now control more than 70% of planted corn acres and 66% of soybeans. She said fertilizer markets are similarly concentrated, with four firms controlling the entire U.S. phosphate and potash markets. “Highly concentrated markets are conducive to anticompetitive coordination,” Moss said, adding that antitrust enforcement has been “less than exemplary.”
Farmers shared firsthand accounts of the economic strain. Iowa farmer Noah Coppess said phosphate fertilizer is now “bare minimum usage” on his farm because it’s too expensive, while seed options have narrowed so much that he’s planted the same soybean variety for five years. Independent seed producer John Latham said royalties now account for 70% of a seed bag’s price, up from 42% five years ago — “a reality that prices out small companies.”
Industry leaders countered that fertilizer is a globally traded commodity. Corey Rosenbusch, president of The Fertilizer Institute, said geopolitical disruptions and import dependence drive costs beyond the control of domestic suppliers. Andrew LaVigne of the American Seed Trade Association urged Congress to streamline regulations and boost research funding to reduce costs and speed innovation.
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) linked consolidation pressures with ongoing trade disruptions, warning that China’s shift to buying soybeans from Brazil and Argentina is “playing the long game at the expense of American farmers.”
American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland said plunging margins are eroding farmers’ safety nets, urging removal of China tariffs and passage of renewable fuel tax credits to support domestic demand. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet Thursday in Busan, South Korea, where a trade deal involving soybeans and other U.S. farm exports is anticipated.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices were steady today on a decline in U.S. crude inventories and optimism over a meeting between the leaders of the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers.
Brent crude futures were up 0.12% to $64.48 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures edged down 0.05 per cent to $60.13.
The surprise draws on inventory in the U.S. helped prices this morning, but the interplay of sanctions risks and OPEC+’s posture is driving markets, analysts note.
—Oil prices fell for third straight day Tuesday as traders weigh Russia sanctions, OPEC+ supply outlook
Waiver for Rosneft’s German operations tempers market fears as OPEC+ eyes December output hike
Oil prices fell about 2% on Tuesday, extending a three-day slide as traders digested fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top energy producers and growing expectations of another OPEC+ supply boost next month. Brent crude dropped $1.22, or 1.9%, to $64.40 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate settled $1.16 lower at $60.15.
The decline followed last week’s sharp rally — the strongest since June — triggered by Washington’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil over Moscow’s continued war in Ukraine. Germany confirmed the U.S. granted a waiver for Rosneft’s German operations, easing immediate concerns about a global supply squeeze and signaling possible uneven enforcement.
Lukoil announced plans to divest its overseas assets, a major retreat for a firm that produces roughly 2% of the world’s oil. In Asia, Indian refiners temporarily paused new Russian crude orders pending government and banking guidance.
OPEC+ producers are reportedly leaning toward a modest output increase in December, with Saudi Arabia emphasizing market share over price support. Aramco’s CEO said global demand remains robust, led by China. Rising OPEC+ supply could help offset any shortfall from Russia.
Traders are also watching Thursday’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, as both sides prepare for “high-level interactions” aimed at stabilizing relations between the world’s top two oil consumers.
—EPA extends comment period for RFS information collection request
Extension allows additional time for input on biointermediate facility reporting requirements
The Environmental Protection Agency has extended the comment period for its information collection request (ICR) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), as noted in a Federal Register notice (link). The ICR, submitted to the Office of Management and Budget for review, had been set to expire on Oct. 31 but will now accept public comments through Nov. 28.
The extension does not pertain to the long-awaited RFS volume obligations for 2026 and 2027. Instead, it focuses on recordkeeping and reporting requirements for biointermediate production facilities — data the EPA uses to ensure compliance across renewable fuel supply chains. Biointermediate production facilities are plants that produce intermediate renewable materials — known as biointermediates — that are later used to make finished renewable fuels qualifying under the RFS program. In simpler terms, a biointermediate is a partially processed renewable feedstock. For example, a facility might convert agricultural residues, fats, or oils into a bio-oil or other intermediate form that another refinery or renewable fuel producer then upgrades into ethanol, biodiesel, or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). EPA created this category in its RFS “biointermediates” rule (finalized in 2022) to expand eligible feedstocks and allow more flexibility in renewable fuel production. These facilities must maintain detailed recordkeeping and reporting to demonstrate that their intermediates meet EPA’s criteria and to ensure traceability through the supply chain, preventing double counting or fraud in RIN (Renewable Identification Number) generation.
| TRADE POLICY: SCOTUS CASE ON TRUMP’S TARIFFS |
—Meet the advocacy teams facing off before the Supreme Court over President Donald Trump’s tariff program
Appellate heavyweights sign on for both sides as the high court gets pitched on the limits of executive trade powers.
Some details on the attorneys preparing to argue the consolidated case challenging President Trump’s tariff authority (commonly framed around whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) authorizes the sweeping “Liberation Day” style tariffs).
Plaintiffs’ side (challenging the tariffs)
• Neal Katyal: A veteran appellate litigator, former Acting U.S. Solicitor General, reportedly retained by a small-business coalition.
• Michael McConnell: Former federal appeals judge (10th Circuit) and senior counsel at a major firm. He appears on the plaintiffs’ roster.
•Liberty Justice Center: Non-profit law firm defending economic‐liberty claims; its attorneys (e.g., Jeffrey Schwab) assisted the plaintiffs in the trade court stage.
•Additional counsel: Ilya Somin (law professor) and others affiliated with Liberty Justice Center.
Defense side (representing the government)
•D. John Sauer: Serving as U.S. Solicitor General under President Trump, and expected to defend the tariff program before the Court.
•Other government appellate counsel: DOJ’s Brett Shumate and Eric Hamilton are on the brief for the administration.
Why this matters
• The legal team lineup reflects the high stakes: These are not casual litigants, but seasoned Supreme Court practitioners.
•On the plaintiffs’ side, Katyal and McConnell bring deep appellate credibility and signal a full-scale challenge to the executive’s tariff authority.
•For the government, Sauer’s role underscores that the administration is placing heavy weight on defending the tariff program at the highest level.
•Strategically, bringing big-name counsel may affect filing posture, cert petition strategy, and signals to the Court about seriousness and resources behind each side.
Key things to watch
•The extent to which these attorneys emphasize statutory interpretation of IEEPA: Does the statute truly authorize such sweeping import-taxes?
•The approach to constitutional-structural arguments: The challengers may focus on the delegation of legislative power and separation of powers; the government will emphasize national-security and emergency powers.
•How the “team branding” might influence amicus mobilization: Heavy hitters often attract more amici, which can affect the breadth of the argument.
•Timeline and scheduling: With oral arguments scheduled (Nov. 5) under an expedited docket, the attorneys’ preparations and filings will be under rapid-fire conditions.
| CONGRESS |
—USTR nominee Julie Callahan faces Senate scrutiny
Trump’s pick for chief agricultural negotiator to outline farm trade priorities before the Senate Finance Committee today
Julie Callahan, President Donald Trump’s nominee to serve as the U.S. Trade Representative’s Chief Agricultural Negotiator, appears before the Senate Finance Committee this morning, where she’s expected to face bipartisan questions on the administration’s trade agenda, export strategy, and the future of U.S. farm competitiveness abroad.
Lawmakers are likely to press Callahan on her approach to tariff policy, non-tariff barriers, and market access for key commodities such as soybeans, corn, dairy, and meat. Her testimony comes at a time when U.S. agricultural exports remain under pressure from retaliatory tariffs and shifting global supply chains.
Agriculture groups have largely praised the nomination, citing her long experience at USTR and FDA, while senators are expected to seek clarity on whether the Trump administration will pursue new bilateral trade deals or rely on tariff leverage to open markets.
If confirmed as expected, Callahan would become the administration’s top agricultural trade envoy — charged with advancing U.S. farm interests in an era of renewed tariff diplomacy.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Speaker Johnson says no to Trump third term
Speaker cites constitutional limits despite Trump’s musings about serving again
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said he has spoken directly with President Donald Trump about the idea of a third term and made clear that it is constitutionally impossible under the 22nd Amendment. “Well, there’s the 22nd amendment,” Johnson said when asked about Trump’s recent remark aboard Air Force One that he’d “love” to serve another term in the White House.
Johnson elaborated that while many supporters enjoy the “Trump 2028” slogan, the Constitution firmly restricts presidents to two terms. “He and I have talked about the constrictions of the Constitution… I don’t see a way to amend it,” Johnson said, noting that such a change would take “about 10 years” and require approval by two-thirds of Congress and three-fourths of the states.
Despite ruling out a third term, Johnson said the current administration remains focused on its agenda: “We are not going to take our foot off the gas pedal. We’re going to deliver for the American people, and we’ve got a great run ahead of us.”
The comments mark a rare instance of a top Republican leader publicly drawing a line on one of Trump’s more provocative ideas, even as Johnson praised the president’s first two terms and looked ahead to “four strong years” under his leadership.
—Vance praises Rubio amid 2028 speculation
Vice president calls secretary of State his “best friend in the administration” after Trump teases potential ticket
Vice President JD Vance described Secretary of State Marco Rubio as “my best friend in the administration” during a new episode of Pod Force One with New York Post columnist Miranda Devine, following President Donald Trump’s recent comments floating the pair as an “unstoppable” 2028 Republican ticket.
Vance, 41, said he first joked about the idea with Rubio after Trump raised it at lunch six months ago, but downplayed any political plotting. “It feels so premature because we’re still so early,” he said, adding, “If we take care of business, the politics will take care of itself.”
The vice president stressed his focus on the administration’s current agenda, saying, “We’ve chipped away at [Biden’s] affordability crisis, but there’s a lot more work to do.” Vance said he intends to “make the president successful over the next three years and three months” before thinking about 2028.
Asked whether a Vance/Rubio ticket might spark rivalry, Vance dismissed the idea: “He and I work a lot together. A lot of the good work we’ve been able to do is because we’re all able to work together.” The two have recently joined diplomatic missions to Europe and the Middle East.
Vance, who leads early polling for the 2028 GOP nomination by wide margins according to RealClearPolitics, concluded, “Worrying too much about the politics makes you worse at the job you have. I never wake up thinking, ‘How do I make myself president?’ I think, ‘How do I do a good job as vice president?’”
| BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR |
—Congress divided on fixing America’s farm labor crisis
As deportations shrink the migrant workforce, lawmakers pitch dueling plans to overhaul the nation’s farm labor system
President Donald Trump’s mass deportations have gutted the U.S. agricultural labor force, leaving fields unharvested and farmers warning of a deepening supply shock. Yet the administration’s proposed fix — tapping millions of “able-bodied adults on Medicaid,” as USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested — has drawn skepticism even from within the president’s party.
At the recent World Dairy Expo in Madison, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) said bluntly that expecting U.S.-born workers to replace migrant labor “simply isn’t realistic.” “If we don’t retain our current agriculture workforce, our farms are going to close,” he warned.
Competing Proposals in Congress
Van Orden has introduced a bill to replace the H-2A guest-worker program with a new system allowing deported laborers to self-deport, pay a fine, and return legally within 30 days under “legal protected status.” The fine — $5,000 split between employer and worker — would, he argues, discourage both illegal hiring and illegal immigration.
Meanwhile, the bipartisan Farm Workforce Modernization Act, introduced in May, would grant “certified agricultural worker status” to undocumented laborers already in the U.S. and create a pathway to citizenship — an approach that many Democrats and moderate Republicans see as the most durable fix.
Calls for H-2A Reform, Not Replacement
Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Tex.) has staked out a middle ground, proposing to keep H-2A but streamline its requirements. Her plan would simplify wages, trim paperwork, and potentially remove the mandate for growers to provide free housing—steps she says would protect migrants “who want to come here and work legally” and cut reliance on labor-trafficking cartels.
Growers broadly support reducing red tape. Jon DeVaney, president of the Washington State Fruit Tree Association, said the current system’s high costs push employers toward off-the-books hiring. About 40% of U.S. farm labor, he estimates, is undocumented, and “unless a document is obviously fraudulent, farmers have to assume it’s valid.”
Worker Advocates Warn of Exploitation Risks
Immigrant-rights groups see danger in these proposals. They argue that De La Cruz’s “Bracero Program 2.0 Act” prioritizes employer savings over worker safety and could erode wages. They believe requiring workers to pay housing costs would be devastating for seasonal laborers.
Some groups have also criticized Van Orden’s $5,000 fine, calling it a “steep fee” that could trap laborers in debt and “render many vulnerable to trafficking.” Van Orden dismissed those fears, insisting enforcement against exploitation rests with the executive branch.
Outlook:With deportations continuing and both proposals languishing in committee, Congress faces intensifying pressure from rural districts to stabilize the food supply chain before next year’s harvest. As one farm leader put it: “Crops don’t wait — and neither can Washington.”
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Storm system to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the Northeast the next couple of days… …Much cooler, well below average temperatures for much of the eastern/central U.S.
