China Purchases of U.S. Soybeans Approach 10 MMT

China Purchases of U.S. Soybeans Approach 10 MMT

Trump signals broader tariff escalation, linking trade pressure to geopolitics across India and the Americas

LINKS

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 4
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 4

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 6, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— Trump signals broader tariff escalation: President Trump warns India tariffs could rise quickly over Russian oil ties while expanding tariff-backed geopolitical pressure across Latin America, Mexico, and Cuba under a revived Monroe Doctrine framework.

— Trump to brief House GOP as Venezuela questions mount: Trump addresses House Republicans amid limited congressional clarity on Venezuela, as lawmakers debate war powers limits and pivot toward the 2026 legislative agenda.

— Rollins keeps pressure on Minnesota as Walz steps aside: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says federal probes into Minnesota food aid fraud and ranching regulations will continue despite Gov. Tim Walz exiting the 2026 race.

— CDC scales back childhood vaccine guidance: The CDC revises routine childhood vaccine recommendations, triggering bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill over scientific process and public health risks.

— Markets steady despite Venezuela shock: Global equities extend gains as investors largely discount Venezuela turmoil unless oil supply disruptions materialize.

— U.S. stocks close higher Monday: Major indexes post modest gains to start 2026, with the Dow up 1.2%, Nasdaq up 0.7%, and S&P 500 up 0.6%.

— Copper hits record high: Copper prices surge above $13,000 per tonne amid mine disruptions and fears of looming U.S. tariffs.

— China boosts U.S. soybean buying: Large Chinese purchases lift CBOT soybeans, pushing Beijing close to fulfilling its U.S. buying pledge before Brazil regains price advantage.

— Brazil soy trade shifts after tax change: Major traders exit the Amazon soy moratorium following Brazil’s removal of tax incentives, shifting conservation enforcement to company-level policies.

— Oil edges higher on Venezuela uncertainty: Crude prices tick up as traders weigh political risk in Venezuela against expectations of ample global supply in 2026.

— White House weighs Venezuela oil opening: The administration explores talks with U.S. oil majors on reviving Venezuelan production, though companies signal caution amid political risk.

— U.S. potato industry seeks Canada trade probe: Growers urge a USTR-backed ITC investigation into Canadian antidumping rules ahead of USMCA review talks.

— China signals more monetary easing: Beijing pledges RRR and interest-rate cuts in 2026 to support a struggling economy.

— Congress advances CJS spending deal: A bipartisan FY 2026 bill boosts DOJ funding, protects science agencies from deep cuts, and tightens oversight of the FBI headquarters project.

— Pingree, MAHA claim pesticide rider win: Democrats and health advocates hail removal of a pesticide liability shield from a House funding bill, warning it could return later.

— UP/NS merger filing moves forward: Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern argue competitor objections target merger merits, not application completeness, urging regulators to proceed.

— Weather outlook: Heavy mountain snow targets the Pacific Northwest and Interior West, while much of the central and eastern U.S. sees above-average temperatures.

TOP STORIES—Trump signals broader tariff escalation, linking trade pressure to geopolitics across India and the AmericasPresident warns India tariffs could rise quickly, while floating tougher action on Venezuela, Colombia, Cuba, and Mexico under an expanded Monroe Doctrine strategy President Donald Trump opened 2026 by signaling a more aggressive use of tariffs as a geopolitical tool, warning that duties on Indian goods — already at 50% — could be raised “very quickly,” while also hinting at further economic and political pressure across Latin America. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump tied the India tariffs directly to New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil, a key justification for half of the current duties. Indian officials say they hope to wrap up U.S. trade talks by the end of March and argue most trade issues are resolved, but the White House remains focused on India’s energy ties to Moscow.Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), traveling with the president, promoted his legislation that would impose secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian oil. Graham argued the threat is already working, claiming India has reduced Russian oil purchases and privately pressed Washington for tariff relief. Trump then pivoted to Latin America, framing recent U.S. military action in Venezuela as an opening for American business following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro. He emphasized opportunities beyond oil, highlighting steel, aluminum, and critical minerals. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick echoed that view, portraying Venezuela as a resource-rich economy that had been “destroyed” and now ripe for reconstruction under U.S. leadership. The president also escalated rhetoric toward Colombia and Cuba, saying Colombia’s leadership would not “be doing it very long” and declaring that the “days are numbered” for Cuba’s communist government. Colombia currently faces 10% U.S. tariffs, while Cuba remains under a longstanding U.S. trade embargo. Mexico was also singled out, with Trump warning that Washington will “have to do something” if Mexican authorities fail to crack down on drug cartels. The comments come ahead of a scheduled summer review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, where tariffs tied to migration and drug enforcement are expected to be a flashpoint. Trump justified the broader posture by invoking a renewed Monroe Doctrine, reinforced in the administration’s recent National Security Strategy. The document outlines a “Trump Corollary” that explicitly embraces tariffs and reciprocal trade agreements as tools to counter foreign influence, secure supply chains, and reshape economic relationships across the Western Hemisphere. —Trump to brief House GOP as Venezuela questions mountClosed-door address focuses on party unity and 2026 agenda while lawmakers await fuller details on Maduro operation House Republicans will hear directly from Donald Trump today for the first time since the administration’s dramatic capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. A broader briefing for all House and Senate members is scheduled for Wednesday, amid bipartisan frustration over the lack of clarity on next steps in Venezuela. Where things stand: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said after a leadership briefing that he does not believe the U.S. plans to send troops and rejected claims the administration has pivoted to regime change. “This is not a regime change,” Johnson said, calling it a push for “change of behavior by a regime.” Skepticism remains within GOP ranks. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) questioned how a peaceful transition could occur without ground forces — an option he opposes. The Senate is expected to take up a bipartisan war powers resolution Thursday aimed at limiting future Venezuela strikes, though prospects appear dim. Trump’s remarks this morning at a closed-door House GOP retreat at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts are expected to emphasize recent GOP wins and rally members for the midterms, rather than delve into Venezuela. Leadership plans to pivot to the 2026 agenda, including whether to pursue another reconciliation bill and how to address health care and affordability. Meanwhile, members of the House Freedom Caucus have pressed Johnson to prioritize spending cuts, codifying Trump’s border actions, and blocking a digital currency issued by the Federal Reserve. —Rollins keeps pressure on Minnesota as Walz steps asideUSDA secretary says probes into food aid fraud and ranching restrictions will continue despite governor’s exit Even after Tim Walz announced he would abandon a 2026 re-election bid, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins signaled there would be no letup in federal scrutiny of Minnesota’s policies — or alleged misconduct tied to Walz’s administration. Rollins said Monday that investigations into suspected fraud in Minnesota’s food assistance programs will proceed regardless of Walz’s political future, framing the issue as one of accountability rather than electoral politics. “Let’s be clear: this doesn’t mean the investigations into the fraud allegations surrounding his administration will disappear when he does,” Rollins wrote on X. “Justice will prevail, and there will be full accountability.” Food aid fraud remains a federal focus. While Rollins did not detail the scope or timeline of the investigations, her comments reinforce that USDA and other federal agencies continue to examine allegations that state-administered food programs were exploited, costing taxpayers millions. The probes have become a flashpoint in Minnesota politics and a broader talking point for Republicans arguing that weak oversight under Democratic governors has enabled misuse of federal aid. Rollins’ message suggests the Trump administration intends to keep Minnesota in the spotlight, even without Walz on the ballot, as part of a broader push to tighten controls on nutrition programs and emphasize enforcement.Ranchers and deer farmers in the crosshairs. Beyond food aid, Rollins also renewed criticism of Walz-era policies affecting Minnesota ranchers — particularly deer and elk producers. She accused the state of imposing burdensome regulations that she says are suppressing agricultural businesses. At the center of the dispute is a Minnesota law requiring deer farmers to construct fencing designed to prevent contact between wild and farmed deer. Rollins argues the mandate adds significant costs and regulatory hurdles for producers already under financial pressure. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, however, has defended the rule, saying the fencing requirement is aimed at containing chronic wasting disease (CWD), an always-fatal neurological illness that affects deer and other cervids and poses long-term risks to wildlife populations and the hunting economy.Political fight continues without Walz. Walz’s decision to step away from a re-election campaign removes one of Rollins’ most prominent political foils, but it does not appear to reduce the administration’s interest in Minnesota as a case study. For Rollins, the state remains a symbol of what she describes as lax oversight of federal aid and regulatory overreach affecting producers. Bottom Line: The episode underscores how agricultural policy, food assistance oversight, and wildlife disease management are increasingly intertwined with national political battles — and how those fights can persist even after a key political figure exits the stage. —CDC scales back childhood vaccine guidance, prompting Hill backlashLawmakers warn science and process were sidelined as several shots move off the routine schedule The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday revised its childhood immunization guidance, removing routine recommendations for meningitis, hepatitis A, hepatitis B and RSV, limiting them to high-risk groups. Several other vaccines — including flu, Covid-19 and rotavirus — were shifted to a “shared clinical decision-making” category, while the HPV schedule was cut to one dose. Acting CDC Director Jim O’Neil said the move “realigns” guidance around 11 consensus vaccines and stressed insurance must still cover all recommended shots without cost sharing. The changes drew sharp criticism from Congress. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), a physician and HELP Committee chair, said the revisions break commitments made during HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s confirmation and are not grounded in science. Democrats Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) warned the move could endanger children and called for stronger safeguards. The administration defended the approach as empowering parents and physicians, citing Denmark’s vaccine model — a comparison public-health experts say overlooks major system differences.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: Global markets extended gains as investors looked beyond upheaval in Venezuela.U.S. stock futures are slightly lower. Asia, Japan +1.3%. Hong Kong +1.4%. China +1.5%. India -0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.7%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt +0.2%.

—Equities yesterday:

Equity Index	Closing Price Jan. 5	Point Difference from Jan. 2	% Difference from Jan. 2
Dow	48,977.18	+594.79	+1.2%
Nasdaq	23,395.82	+160.19	+0.7%
S&P 500	6,902.05	+43.58	+0.6%

—Copper sets fresh all-time high on supply and tariff fears

Supply disruptions at major mines and concerns about looming Trump trade levies have helped drive prices sharply higher since October

Copper prices soared to more than $13,000 per tonne, marking a new record as markets worry about supply constraints and broader geopolitical disruptions. The rally extends a run that began in October, when major mine outages and labor actions first crimped supply.

Traders have also been positioning ahead of potential U.S. import tariffs, contributing to elevated demand and rising warehouse stockpiles.

AG MARKETS

—USDA daily export sale: 336,000 MT soybeans to China for 2025/26.

—China steps up U.S. soybean buying, fueling CBOT rally

Large early-week purchases move China close to fulfilling its U.S. soybean purchase pledge, but demand is expected to fade as cheaper Brazilian supplies take over

China emerged as a key driver of the recent rally in Chicago soybeans after securing an estimated 600,000 to 1.0 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans on Monday, according to trade contacts.

Some traders estimate China has now bought more than 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, leaving around 2 million tons remaining to meet its U.S. purchase commitment, something insiders expect to be completed within the next few weeks.

Brazilian soybeans are trading $0.50–$1.00 per bushel cheaper than U.S. Gulf values

—Brazil soy trade shifts as tax change undercuts Amazon pledge

Industry group says firms will pursue individual conservation policies after exiting long-running moratorium

Brazil’s grain trading and oilseed crushing lobby ABIOVE says it — along with many of its member companies — is exiting the soybean moratorium, a 20-year pact that barred purchases of soy grown on land deforested in the Amazon after July 2008.

Mato Grosso Gov. Mauro Mendes said ABIOVE informed him of the decision, confirming reports that major traders were preparing to leave the agreement. The timing follows a new Brazilian tax law that took effect Jan. 1 and removed tax incentives tied to participation in the moratorium.

According to Reuters, ABIOVE and roughly two-thirds of the companies previously signed onto the pact are no longer listed on the moratorium’s official website. ABIOVE said companies will now be responsible for enforcing their own conservation and sustainability commitments rather than adhering to the collective framework.

The move marks a significant shift in Brazil’s soy governance model and could have implications for global supply chains, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scrutiny, and trade relations — particularly as Brazil continues to expand its role as the world’s dominant soybean exporter.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract Month	Close Jan. 5	Change vs Jan. 2	Units
Corn	March	$4.44 1/2	+7	cents
Soybeans	March	$10.62	+16 1/4	cents
Soybean Meal	March	$299.90	+3.90	dollars
Soybean Oil	March	49.87	+0.57	cents
SRW Wheat	March	$5.12 1/2	+6	cents
HRW Wheat	March	$5.20 3/4	+5 3/4	cents
Spring Wheat	March	$5.71 1/4	+1/2	cents
Cotton	March	64.65	+0.64	cents
Live Cattle	February	$235.875	-0.125	dollars
Feeder Cattle	March	$358.975	+2.875	dollars
Lean Hogs	February	$86.15	+2.05	dollars

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Tuesday: Oil edges higher as Venezuela uncertainty collides with surplus outlook

Markets continue to weigh Maduro fallout against expectations of ample global supply in 2026

Oil prices ticked modestly higher Tuesday as traders balanced near-term uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan crude output following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro against a broadly bearish outlook for global supply and demand this year.

Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to about $62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained roughly 0.4% to just under $59. Analysts cautioned that it is too early to judge how political developments in Venezuela will affect the oil balance, noting that supply is expected to remain ample in 2026 regardless of incremental output from the OPEC member.

A December Reuters poll showed market participants expect prices to stay under pressure this year as new supply growth outpaces demand. Some analysts argue the removal of sanctions could ultimately add to that pressure: limited near-term investment could lift Venezuelan output by roughly 300,000 barrels per day over the next two to three years, while a more ambitious expansion would require substantial international capital and political stability.

The Trump administration is expected to meet with U.S. oil executives this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan production, according to a source familiar with the talks. Venezuela — home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves — has seen output fall sharply over the past decade due to underinvestment and sanctions, averaging about 1.1 million barrels per day last year.

Elsewhere, Reliance Industries said it does not expect Russian crude deliveries in January, potentially pushing India’s imports from Russia to multi-year lows. The move follows renewed tariff warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump tied to India’s purchases of Russian oil, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty to global energy markets.

—White House weighs Venezuela oil opening with U.S. majors

Administration signals readiness for investment talks as refiners eye heavy crude, but companies play down prior contacts

The Trump administration is planning to meet this week with executives from major U.S. oil companies to discuss potential investment in Venezuela aimed at lifting crude output, according to CBS News. The talks would come as Washington explores pathways to revive production following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is among those leading the discussions.

Despite President Donald Trump saying he has already met with “all” U.S. oil companies before and since the operation in Venezuela, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron told Reuters they have not held discussions with the administration on the matter. The White House declined to confirm the meeting but said U.S. firms are prepared to make “big investments” if conditions allow.

Trump acknowledged that companies were not briefed ahead of the U.S. action but said conversations are now focused on what could follow if Maduro is no longer in power. Any investment push would likely be gradual: rebuilding Venezuela’s oil sector would take time after years of underinvestment and sanctions. Still, the prospect is attractive to U.S. refiners, which value Venezuela’s heavy crude as a good fit for Gulf Coast facilities.

President Trump has sketched out an aggressive timetable for re-establishing a U.S. oil presence in Venezuela, where most American firms exited after the country nationalized large parts of its energy sector. In an interview with NBC News, Trump said expanded U.S. operations could be “up and running” within 18 months or less, and suggested companies could be incentivized with reimbursement “by us or through revenue,” though he did not clarify how that would work. Even before Nicolás Maduro’s removal, Trump had been signaling interest in reviving U.S. energy engagement. According to the Wall Street Journal, he told a handful of energy executives about a month ago to “get ready.” Industry leaders, however, have denied having advance knowledge of the operation, the paper reported. Chevron is widely viewed as best positioned to benefit. It is the only major U.S. oil company that maintained a presence in Venezuela after nationalization, operating under a series of short-term U.S. sanctions waivers. Other potential beneficiaries include oil-field services firms such as Halliburton and SLB — whose shares jumped Monday — as well as asset managers and hedge funds holding Venezuelan bonds. Still, caution dominates boardrooms. The Journal reports that Chevron has no immediate plans to significantly ramp up investment or production, despite having contingency plans under certain scenarios. Other U.S. majors, including Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, also appear reluctant to move quickly. That hesitation reflects lingering political risk in Caracas. While some executives express confidence in interim leader Delcy Rodríguez, a former oil minister, the broader outlook remains uncertain. Executives continue to question whether U.S. companies could reliably deploy staff or repatriate profits. As Elliott Abrams, a former U.S. envoy to Venezuela in Trump’s first term, told Politico: “You’ll see all of them say, ‘This is fantastic, it’s a great opportunity, and we have a team ready to go to Venezuela.’ That doesn’t mean they’re going to invest.”

TRADE POLICY

—U.S. potato industry urges federal review of Canada trade barriers ahead of USMCA talks

Growers seek ITC fact-finding probe into British Columbia antidumping rules and alleged Canadian subsidies

The National Potato Council has formally asked the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to initiate a fact-finding investigation into Canadian potato trade practices, arguing that long-standing antidumping rules in British Columbia and potential government subsidies are distorting markets on both sides of the border.

In a Dec. 31 letter (link), the group urged USTR to request a Section 332 investigation by the U.S. International Trade Commission, which has authority to conduct trade studies without issuing policy recommendations. NPC CEO Kam Quarles said the request is driven by recent changes to British Columbia’s antidumping mechanism and growing concern among U.S. growers that competition with Canadian producers has become increasingly uneven.

Focus on British Columbia price floor. Since 1984, British Columbia has enforced a province-level price floor on certain U.S. potato varieties, with shipments priced below that level subject to antidumping duties. Quarles said the mechanism historically had little effect on U.S. exports, but that changed in July when Canadian authorities sharply raised the minimum price threshold.

As a result, U.S. sellers who do not meet the higher floor now face penalties, a move Quarles described as a clear effort to push U.S. potatoes out of the provincial market. He argued that the policy amounts to a violation of Canada’s obligations under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, particularly as the pact heads into its scheduled review this summer.

“It’s hard to credibly claim dumping for four decades straight,” Quarles said, questioning how an antidumping regime could persist for 40 years without evidence of sustained below-cost selling.

Alleged subsidies in the Upper Midwest. Beyond British Columbia, NPC is also pressing for scrutiny of potential Canadian federal or provincial support programs that it says may be allowing Canadian potatoes to enter U.S. markets at unusually low prices. Growers in North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan and neighboring states have raised concerns that Canadian competitors are benefiting from assistance that distorts pricing in the Upper Midwest.

According to Quarles, a Section 332 study could help determine whether subsidies, preferential freight rates, currency effects, or other policies are tilting the competitive balance — information NPC wants in hand before USMCA partners meet in July.

Next steps: NPC asked that the ITC complete its review ahead of the USMCA talks, though the timing would depend on commission resources. The request was addressed to USTR Chief Agricultural Negotiator Julie Callahan.

CHINA

—China signals more monetary easing ahead as growth pressures persist

PBOC says 2026 policy mix will include RRR and rate cuts to keep credit flowing

China’s central bank signaled another year of monetary support, pledging to cut banks’ reserve requirements and interest rates in 2026 as it tries to stabilize an economy that continues to struggle.

In a statement released after its 2026 work meeting, the People’s Bank of China said it will “flexibly and efficiently” deploy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions and interest-rate cuts to ensure ample liquidity. The bank said it aims to keep financing conditions “relatively accommodative,” guide reasonable growth in total credit, and promote more balanced loan issuance.

The pledge underscores Beijing’s ongoing concern about weak economic momentum and reflects policymakers’ reliance on monetary easing to support activity, even as structural challenges continue to weigh on growth.

CONGRESS

—Congressional compromise lifts law enforcement, spares science from steep cuts

Fiscal 2026 Commerce-Justice-Science bill boosts DOJ funding, preserves NASA and NSF budgets, and blocks proposed administration reductions while advancing earmarked research projects

Lawmakers on Monday released final text for the fiscal 2026 Commerce-Justice-Science (C-J-S) appropriations bill, settling on a bipartisan compromise that provides roughly $78 billion in discretionary funding — or about $81 billion after accounting adjustments — essentially flat with last year. The measure, part of a three-bill minibus package, would fund agencies including the Department of Justice, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the National Science Foundation.

The bill increases overall Justice Department funding to $37 billion, topping both last year’s level and the White House request. Within DOJ, the FBI would receive $10.6 billion for salaries and expenses — slightly below fiscal 2025 but well above the administration’s proposal — while the Drug Enforcement Administration sees a $63 million boost. Funding for U.S. attorney offices also ticks higher. Republicans argue the bill reins in what they call overreach at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, even as total ATF funding exceeds the administration’s request.

On the science side, appropriators rejected the Trump administration’s most aggressive cuts. NASA would receive $24.4 billion, a modest year-over-year reduction but $5.6 billion more than requested, avoiding sharp program cancellations. The NSF would drop to $8.75 billion — down slightly from 2025 — yet far above the 57% cut proposed by the White House. New language would also require advance congressional notification before the NSF divests major facilities, a provision tied to concerns over a Boulder, Colorado research center.

The Commerce Department would gain $11.1 billion, driven largely by a nearly $690 million increase for the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Much of that increase reflects earmarked research and construction projects, contributing to roughly $1.8 billion in earmarks across the C-J-S bill.

Finally, the measure tightens congressional oversight of plans for a new FBI headquarters, freezing certain funds until lawmakers review detailed architectural and engineering plans — a move tied to ongoing disputes over the project’s location.

If enacted before the Jan. 30 stopgap deadline, the package would mark Congress’ progress on half of the fiscal 2026 appropriations bills, easing pressure as lawmakers race to avoid another funding lapse.

—Pingree, MAHA hail removal of pesticide rider from House funding bill

Advocates warn liability shield could still resurface during floor negotiations

Democrats and health advocates are claiming a win after House appropriators released an Interior-Environment spending bill that excludes a controversial pesticide rider shielding chemical companies from lawsuits.

Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine), ranking member of the Interior-Environment Appropriations Subcommittee, said she led the effort to remove Section 453 after it appeared in earlier GOP drafts. She argued the provision would have overridden state authority and protected companies like Bayer from liability.

The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement also took credit. Reports note that MAHA and progressive allies forced the rider’s removal but cautioned that the language could still return through amendments as the bill moves to the floor.

House Appropriations Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) did not address the pesticide issue directly, instead emphasizing bipartisan progress on FY 2026 spending and investments in energy, infrastructure, and public safety.

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS

—UP/NS merger filing cleared as complete despite competitor objections

Applicants tell regulators critics are arguing the merits too early, not identifying missing information

Union Pacific Railroad and Norfolk Southern Railway on Jan. 2 pushed back against objections from rival Class I railroads and a shipper group, defending the completeness of their merger application filed last month with the Surface Transportation Board.

In filings submitted Dec. 29, BNSF Railway, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, CN, and CSX each argued that the application is deficient and should be rejected. The four competitors said the filing lacks required data and information and therefore should not be accepted by the board.

The objections followed the Dec. 19, 2025, submission of the merger application, after which the STB invited public comment on whether the filing met completeness standards. In their reply, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern rejected the competitors’ claims.

The railroads also said comments from the National Grain and Feed Association went to the merits of the proposed merger rather than the threshold question of whether the application itself is complete.

Key takeaways from the filing:

•Completeness vs. merits dispute: Applicants argue that virtually all objections — from competitors CN, BNSF, CSX, and CPKC, as well as the National Grain and Feed Association — challenge the substance of the merger rather than whether the application contains the information required under STB rules. The Board’s instructions explicitly limit this phase to completeness, not competitive judgment.

•System impact and competition analysis provided: The filing says the application includes extensive system-wide impact analyses, covering 3-to-2 and 2-to-1 points, geographic competition, market shares, vertical effects, and downstream merger implications, supported by multiple expert economists and hundreds of pages of analysis.

•Limited competitive overlaps: Applicants report identifying no 2-to-1 points and only one 3-to-2 point at the geographic level permitted by STB rules, arguing claims that more granular analysis is required go to policy judgment, not completeness.

•Shipper protections emphasized: The companies reiterate commitments that no 2-to-1 shipper will lose access to two Class I railroads and note that identification and remedies for such facilities can continue post-filing under Board precedent.

•Public benefits quantified: Applicants say they fully enumerated and quantified merger benefits—including efficiency gains, expanded single-line service, and competitive effects—while also documenting why these benefits cannot be achieved absent a merger.

•Data and workpapers defended: The filing rejects claims that underlying data were withheld, stating that all data used in the analyses, along with code and methodologies, were produced consistent with STB practice. Disputes over intermediate datasets are characterized as discovery issues, not grounds to deem the application incomplete.

•Corporate control and mapping issues dismissed as minor: Allegations involving control of affiliated rail entities, merger agreement disclosures, and small mapping omissions are described as either already addressed, legally irrelevant, or easily correctable without affecting completeness.

Bottom Line: Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern urge the STB to reject efforts to delay the case at the threshold stage, arguing the record clearly satisfies the Board’s filing rules and that competitive, service, and shipper concerns should be debated during the full merits review — not used to block the application from moving forward.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Pacific system will bring very heavy mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest as well as portions of the Interior West through mid-week… …Another round of wintry precipitation will spread from the Great Lakes to New England Tuesday… …Well above average temperatures for much of the central and eastern U.S. this week.

REFERENCE LINKS TO KEY TOPICS

2025 review | 2026 issues | Policy timelines |