
Davos 2026: Trump’s Presence Sharpens Focus on Trade, Power and Global Risk
Supreme Court | Trump & Greenland | Food inflation | Fed chair list narrows | House Ag leaders to mull more farmer aid
| LINKS |
Link: Weekend Updates: Will Trump’s Latest 10% Tariffs Against 8 EU
Countries Be Implemented? Senate farmer aid proposal
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 16
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 16
| The Week Ahead: Jan. 18, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Davos 2026: Trump’s presence sharpens focus on trade, power and global risk
Trump’s attendance dominates Davos, with tariffs, geopolitics, AI, and slowing global growth driving a sober, risk-focused agenda.
— Trump threatens new tariffs over Greenland, reviving fears of unchecked trade power
New 10% tariff threats against Europe tied to Greenland escalate trade volatility and spotlight Supreme Court limits on presidential authority.
— Inflation cooled in 2025 — but high food and housing costs still sting
Headline inflation eased, but groceries, rent, and tariff-linked costs remain painfully high for consumers.
— Supreme Court set to weigh Trump’s control over the Fed
Justices will hear a landmark case on firing a Fed governor, testing the future of central bank independence.
— Fed official sees rates near neutral, signals patience
Vice Chair Jefferson says policy is near neutral, supporting rate stability with limited cuts expected in 2026.
— Iowa House moves to block eminent domain for CO₂ pipelines
Iowa advances a bill restricting carbon pipelines, intensifying the clash between landowner rights and ethanol expansion.
— Tariffs add new uncertainty to 2026 farm planning
Farmers warn higher input costs and export instability are reshaping acreage, purchasing, and investment decisions.
— Fed chair race update: Trump signals shift away from Kevin Hassett
Trump’s comments dim Hassett’s chances and elevate Kevin Warsh as markets price in a firmer Fed outlook.
— Supreme Court signals more decisions as tariff ruling looms
Markets brace as the Court schedules an opinion day that could upend Trump’s sweeping tariff regime.
CONGRESS & OTHER KEY EVENTS
— House in session; Senate out until Jan. 26
House focuses on funding strategy, tariffs, farm aid, energy costs, China policy, and restarting committee hearings.
KEY EVENTS
— Jan. 19–23: Packed week anchored by Davos and Supreme Court action
Trump addresses Davos, Fed independence case is argued, and major trade, agriculture, and energy events unfold.
ECONOMIC REPORTS
— Holiday-shortened week with heavy data backlog
GDP, PCE inflation, income, jobless claims, PMIs, and global CPI/GDP releases crowd the calendar.
AG REPORTS & EVENTS
— China trade data and USDA releases in focus
China commodity flows, U.S. export sales, livestock, dairy, cotton, and cold storage data dominate ag markets.
ENERGY REPORTS
— Davos, IEA outlook, and inventories steer energy markets
Oil inventories, ethanol production, IEA forecasts, and major earnings frame energy and fuel discussions.
TOP STORIES — Davos 2026: Trump’s presence sharpens focus on trade, power and global riskU.S. president attends World Economic Forum as tariff uncertainty, growth fears and geopolitics dominate talks The world’s political and business elite are gathering this week in Davos, Switzerland, for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, with the agenda shaped by renewed trade tensions, uneven global growth and intensifying geopolitical risk. Notable executives on the Davos program include Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. Adding to the stakes this year is the in-person attendance of President Donald Trump, who is expected to play a central role in discussions and public sessions. Trump’s presence has drawn outsized attention from global leaders and CEOs eager to better understand the trajectory of U.S. trade, economic and foreign policy in his second term. Trade and tariffs front and center. Trade policy is dominating the Davos agenda, driven by uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs that have reshaped global supply chains and unsettled markets. Trump’s appearance has made tariff policy a top topic in private meetings and panel discussions, with executives and foreign officials pressing for clarity on whether recent actions represent a negotiating posture or a more permanent shift toward protectionism. European and Asian leaders are expected to warn that prolonged tariff volatility could chill investment and deepen economic fragmentation, while U.S. officials are emphasizing leverage, national security and domestic industrial resilience. Growth risks and central banks in the spotlight. Concerns about slowing global growth are another major theme. While inflation has eased in parts of the developed world, price pressures tied to services, housing and trade costs remain stubborn. Central bankers attending Davos are expected to reinforce a data-dependent approach, as investors search for signals on the timing of future rate cuts. Remarks from figures such as ECB President Christine Lagarde are being closely watched, particularly by emerging-market policymakers facing tighter financial conditions, a strong dollar and rising debt stress. Geopolitics, security and economic sovereignty. Beyond economics, Davos conversations are increasingly framed through a geopolitical lens. Ongoing conflicts, strategic competition over energy and critical minerals, and disputes over trade routes and territories are shaping debates about economic security. Many leaders are openly questioning the durability of the old globalization model, emphasizing resilience, redundancy and national control over key industries. Trump’s attendance has intensified these discussions, as allies and rivals alike assess how far the U.S. is willing to push its economic power to achieve geopolitical objectives. Climate, energy and technology — more pragmatic tone. Climate and energy issues remain part of the agenda, but with a sharper focus on affordability and reliability. Executives are stressing the need to balance decarbonization goals with energy security and consumer costs. Artificial intelligence and automation are also prominent, with discussions highlighting productivity gains alongside political and social concerns about job displacement. A cautious, consequential Davos. The mood in Davos this year is notably sober. Rather than celebrating global integration, leaders are focused on managing risk in a more fragmented world. Trump’s presence has underscored how closely economic outcomes are now tied to political decisions — and how quickly policy shifts can reverberate across markets. For many attendees, Davos 2026 is less about setting a grand global vision and more about adapting to a reality in which power, trade and growth are increasingly contested. — Trump threatens new tariffs over Greenland, reviving fears of unchecked trade powerA fresh 10% tariff threat against European countries opposing U.S. control of Greenland underscores ongoing volatility in U.S. trade policy and sharpens focus on looming Supreme Court limits on presidential authority. President Donald Trump announced that the United States will impose 10% tariffs on multiple European countries that oppose American control of Greenland, reigniting trade tensions and raising new questions about the scope of presidential tariff powers. Trump’s tariffs will apply to Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland. It came as protests were held across Denmark staunchly opposing any U.S. control of Greenland. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) issued a joint statement urging the Trump administration to “turn off the threats and turn on diplomacy.” The co-chairs of a Senate NATO group wrote, “Continuing down this path is bad for America, bad for American businesses and bad for America’s allies.” ![]() In response, Scott Lincicome, a scholar at the Cato Institute, said the move validates long-standing warnings from trade experts. He argued that Trump’s trade actions highlight how unilateral and non-binding U.S. trade arrangements can be altered abruptly, leaving little to restrain the president’s “daily tariff impulses.” Lincicome said the Greenland-linked tariffs further expose what he described as the hollow nature of Trump’s claims that such measures are justified by “emergency” or “national security” concerns. Instead, he warned, they illustrate the economic and geopolitical risks of broad, unchecked executive authority over trade — making the Supreme Court’s forthcoming ruling on Trump-era tariffs especially consequential. Even if the Court strikes down the emergency-based tariffs, Lincicome cautioned that lasting restraint would still depend on Congress revising other tariff statutes that grant presidents similar powers. Without congressional action, he said, policy uncertainty driven by tariff threats is unlikely to fade in 2026 and could continue to weigh on investment decisions.— Inflation cooled in 2025 — but high food and housing costs still stingSlowing price growth brought some relief last year, but stubborn grocery, rent, and tariff-related costs kept pressure on household budgets Overall U.S. inflation eased in 2025, offering partial relief to consumers who entered the year hoping for lower prices. Headline inflation slowed from 2.9% at the end of 2024 to 2.7% by December 2025, while core inflation — which strips out food and energy — fell more sharply, from 3.2% to 2.6%, according to data cited by the Wall Street Journal. The good news: prices declined in several high-visibility categories. Gasoline prices fell 3.4% over the year, egg prices plunged nearly 21% as bird flu pressures eased, and costs dropped for items like cellphone service and some entertainment tickets. These declines helped prevent a broader inflation reacceleration despite continued economic and policy uncertainty. The bad news: for many households, the categories that matter most day-to-day remain expensive. Grocery prices rose 2.4% in 2025 —f aster than in 2024 — while beef and veal prices jumped more than 16% amid supply constraints. Coffee prices surged nearly 20%, driven by poor harvests from extreme weather and higher U.S. tariffs on imported beans. Housing costs continued to climb as well, with shelter inflation running around 3.6%, and rents and home prices still near historic highs. Economists quoted by the Journal emphasized that slowing inflation doesn’t feel like relief when price levels remain elevated. Consumers, they note, care less about the direction of inflation than the fact that everyday costs are still far above pre-pandemic norms. Trade policy also played a role in shaping last year’s price picture. President Trump’s tariffs — now at their highest levels in decades — did not spark the immediate inflation spike many feared, but instead contributed to a gradual upward grind in certain categories such as furniture, bedding, and vehicle parts. In other import-heavy sectors, including apparel and toys, retailers absorbed much of the tariff cost, keeping price increases modest. Looking ahead, analysts expect rental inflation to continue cooling into 2026, but few foresee a broad-based rollback in prices. As consumer sentiment surveys cited by the Journal show, frustration over high grocery and housing costs remains widespread — even as inflation, by the numbers, appears largely under control. ![]() — Supreme Court set to weigh Trump’s control over the FedJustices will hear a first-of-its-kind case on whether a president can fire a Fed governor “for cause,” with central bank independence at stake The Supreme Court of the United States will hear arguments this week on whether Donald Trump can remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve for alleged mortgage fraud — the first firing of a sitting Fed governor. The case turns on the Fed’s statutory rule allowing removals only “for cause,” a term the law does not define. Trump says alleged misconduct qualifies; Cook argues the claim is unproven, predates her appointment, and that she was denied due process. All sides agree policy disagreements, such as interest-rate votes, are not valid grounds. The Court has recently weakened firing protections at other independent agencies but has suggested the Fed may warrant special treatment. Cook is backed by former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and Janet Yellen, plus former Treasury secretaries; conservative legal groups and Republican state AGs support Trump. Adding pressure, Jerome Powell disclosed a Justice Dept. subpoena tied to a criminal probe over Fed headquarters renovation costs — an issue that could surface at oral arguments. Powell’s term as chair ends May 15; a decision in Cook’s case is expected by late June. Why it matters: The ruling could redefine presidential power over independent agencies and the future independence of U.S. monetary policy. — Fed official sees rates near neutral, signals patienceVice Chair Philip Jefferson says current policy gives officials flexibility as inflation cools and labor risks rise Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said interest rates are close to a neutral level, leaving the Fed well positioned to adjust policy as new data and risks emerge. Jefferson said recent services and shelter inflation data point toward the Fed’s 2% target, while tariff-related goods inflation is unlikely to be lasting. He acknowledged rising downside risks to the labor market but expects unemployment to remain stable in 2026. After three rate cuts late last year, most officials now support holding rates steady. Markets expect no change at the Jan. 27–28 meeting, with policymakers projecting just one cut in 2026. Jefferson also stressed that renewed asset purchases are aimed at stabilizing bank reserves — not stimulating the economy — and voiced strong support for Chair Jerome Powell amid scrutiny over a Fed renovation project. — Iowa House moves to block eminent domain for CO₂ pipelinesLandowner rights clash with carbon capture and ethanol expansion goals An Iowa House subcommittee has advanced House Study Bill 507, which would ban carbon dioxide pipeline operators from using eminent domain to acquire private land. Supporters, led by Rep. Steven Holt (R-Denison), argue the bill protects constitutional property rights and does not prevent pipelines from being built if landowners agree voluntarily. Opponents warn the bill would effectively halt the proposed pipeline by Summit Carbon Solutions, which is intended to link Midwest ethanol plants to underground CO₂ storage and help ethanol qualify for ultra-low carbon fuel markets. Summit representatives say the measure would “kill” the project and cost Iowa economic opportunities and jobs. The issue continues to divide Iowa Republicans, with Senate leaders signaling interest in a narrower alternative that would allow route flexibility rather than a full ban. The bill now heads to the House Judiciary Committee, setting up another House/Senate showdown after a similar proposal was vetoed last year by Gov. Kim Reynolds. |
| — CONGRESS & OTHER KEY EVENTS |
— The House is in beginning Tuesday and the Senate is out and returns Jan. 26.
— Key issues on the U.S. House agenda for the week of Jan.19, based on the legislative calendar, leadership signals, and unresolved must-do items going into the late-January window.
1. Funding / continuing resolution (CR) strategy. This is a top priority.
House leadership under Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is expected to:
• Advance procedural groundwork for the next funding step (either a short-term CR extension or a partial appropriations package).
• Begin lining up votes on FY2026 spending vehicles, particularly as some agencies remain funded only temporarily.
• Coordinate with the Senate on whether Homeland Security or other unresolved bills will be punted into another CR.
Expect Rules Committee action and messaging bills even if final passage slips into late January or early February.
2. Tariffs, trade, and Trump administration oversight. Following President Trump’s latest tariff announcements tied to Greenland and Europe, the House is likely to:
• Hold Ways and Means and/or Foreign Affairs discussions on tariff authority (IEEPA, Section 232/301).
• Introduce resolutions or messaging bills supporting or constraining executive tariff powers (even if symbolic).
•Lay groundwork for potential legal or legislative responses depending on Supreme Court movement.
This is especially relevant given UK and EU exposure to the tariff threats.
3. Farm aid & agriculture policy. The House will likely continue behind-the-scenes negotiations on another farm aid package (often referred to as a “bridge” or disaster-style assistance). This will likely be like a Senate GOP proposal that surfaced late Friday. It includes higher payment limits and expanded eligibility under programs like FBA-style assistance.
There is no final funding number yet (even though reports of $15 billion have surfaced for the Senate GOP plan), but momentum is building ahead of the next CR vehicle. Link to some details of the Senate proposal.
4. Energy, fuel, and cost-of-living bills. Expect floor or committee action on:
• Energy cost relief measures (electricity, permitting, grid reliability).
• Refinery, fuel blending, or biofuel-related legislation tied to E15/Ethanol debates.
• Inflation-focused messaging bills aligned with Trump administration priorities.
5. China, supply chains, and national security. Likely activity includes:
• Bills targeting China trade exposure, EVs, critical minerals, and supply-chain security.
•Oversight hearings or briefings related to industrial policy and tariffs.
• Coordination with Senate actions on China-related economic measures.
6. Committee hearings resume. With members back in Washington:
• Agriculture, Energy & Commerce, Judiciary, and Financial Services committees are expected to restart hearings.
• Oversight of EPA, USDA, trade policy, and energy costs will dominate.
Bottom Line: The week ahead is less about sweeping floor votes and more about:
• Setting up funding decisions
• Positioning on tariffs and trade
• Advancing farm aid talks
• Laying markers for energy and cost-of-living issues
— Tariffs add new uncertainty to 2026 farm planning
Farmers warn rising input costs and unstable export markets are reshaping planting and investment decisions
Farmers and agricultural leaders will hold a press call Tuesday to outline how sweeping U.S. tariffs are complicating planning for the 2026 growing season, as producers confront higher costs, shifting trade policy, and export-market volatility.
Since April 2025, the Trump administration has imposed broad tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on most imports, with steeper rates for select countries and industries. Organizers say the average U.S. tariff rate has climbed above 16.8% — the highest level since 1935 — pushing up prices for farm inputs while clouding demand prospects for U.S. agricultural exports.
With 2026 planting, purchasing, and financing decisions already underway, farmers say the policy environment is forcing difficult trade-offs, including acreage choices, equipment purchases, and longer-term investments.
Who’s participating
• Aaron Lehman, farmer and president, Iowa Farmers Union
• Benjamin Peterson, farmer, E. L. Peterson Ranch (Montana)
• Nick Levendofsky, executive director, Kansas Farmers Union
The speakers are expected to detail how tariff-driven cost pressures and trade uncertainty are influencing near-term farm decisions and shaping expectations for the next growing season.
— Fed chair race update: Trump signals shift away from Kevin Hassett
Trump wants to keep NEC Director Hassett, boosting Kevin Warsh’s prospects
President Trump publicly indicated that he prefers to keep Kevin Hassett in his current role as Director of the National Economic Council rather than nominate him as the next Federal Reserve Chair, saying he doesn’t “want to lose him” as a White House economic communicator.
| During a roundtable on health care, Trump said this about Hassett: “You were fantastic on television today. I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth. Kevin Hassett is so good. I’m saying, wait a minute, if I move him, these Fed guys, certainly the one we have now, they don’t talk much, I would lose you. It’s a serious concern to me. … We don’t want to lose him, Susie (Wiles, White House chief of staff). We’ll see how it all works out.” |
Hassett’s previously strong chances have plummeted in betting markets after Trump’s remarks, while former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh’s odds have surged as the likely nominee.
U.S. Treasury yields climbed following Trump’s statement, reflecting expectations for a less dovish Fed under a Warsh-style chair.
The race is further complicated by a Justice Dept. investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which has drawn criticism for potentially politicizing the Fed and may dampen support for a Trump‐aligned nominee like Hassett.
Powell’s term ends in May 2026. The White House is expected to announce a nominee in the coming weeks. Warsh, Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder remain discussed possibilities. More details on Trump’s possible choice:
1. Kevin Warsh – Current frontrunner
Former Federal Reserve governor and widely seen in financial markets as the most likely pick now that Hassett’s prospects have dimmed. Prediction markets have moved strongly in Warsh’s favor since Trump indicated he wants to keep Hassett at the White House.
Seen as more confirmable by the Senate and experienced in central banking, which could help smooth the confirmation process.
2. Christopher Waller – Inside Fed continuity choice
A sitting Fed governor (appointed under Trump) with policy experience on the Board of Governors that gives him credibility among both markets and some policymakers.
Market odds still show him as a secondary candidate if Warsh isn’t selected.
Other Names in the Mix
3. Rick Rieder – Market-approved outsider
BlackRock’s CIO of global fixed income; mentioned by some economists as a potential non-traditional Fed chair pick with strong markets experience.
Not a Fed governor, but sometimes floated as a compromise choice if Senate opposition rises to more political picks.
4. Michelle Bowman – From within Fed leadership
Vice Chair for Supervision at the Fed with regulatory experience and previously on Trump’s shortlist.
Less frequently mentioned in markets than Warsh or Waller, but still available as an internal institutional pick.
Context
Jerome Powell’s term as chair expires in May 2026, and Trump is expected to nominate a replacement ahead of that date. Senate confirmation — especially given current political tensions around Fed independence — remains critical.
Some Republican senators have signaled they might block nominees perceived as too political, which could affect how far Trump pushes his preferred candidate.
— Supreme Court signals more decisions as tariff ruling looms
Justices set Tuesday opinion day while markets and governments await a high stakes call on President Trump’s sweeping trade levies
The U.S. Supreme Court has scheduled Tuesday, Jan. 20, as its next opinion day, keeping investors, businesses, and foreign governments on edge as they await a ruling on President Donald Trump’s signature tariffs.
As is customary, the court did not specify which cases are ready for release, noting only that opinions may be issued when the justices take the bench at 10:00 a.m. Washington time.
If the tariff case is not decided this week, the wait could stretch at least another month, since Wednesday marks the final scheduled courtroom session before Feb. 20.
The stakes are significant. A decision against Trump would strike at the core of his economic agenda and represent his most consequential legal setback since returning to the White House. The case centers on the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs—levies of 10% to 50% on most imports—along with duties imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China, justified by the administration as an emergency response to fentanyl trafficking.
During oral arguments on Nov. 5, several justices signaled skepticism that a 1977 emergency powers law authorized tariffs of this breadth. An adverse ruling could not only curb the administration’s tariff authority but also open the door to more than $130 billion in potential refunds to importers.
| — KEY EVENTS |
Mon., Jan. 19
• Federal holiday: Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Tue., Jan. 20
• Clean Fuels Alliance America conference, through Thursday, San Antonio.
Wed., Jan. 21
• National Agricultural Law Center virtual conversation with USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden, “Ag Trade, Financial Assistance, USDA Reorganization and Related Issues.”
• Rural America: House Small Business subcommittee hearing, “Empowering Rural America Through Investment in Innovation.”
Thur., Jan. 22
• USMCA: Washington International Trade Association online event, “USMCA Under Review: Early Takeaways, Stakeholder Engagement, and the Year Ahead.”
• Chemicals: House Energy & Commerce subcommittee hearing on a legislative proposal to modernize U.S. chemical safety law, strengthen supply chains and expand domestic manufacturing.
| — ECONOMIC REPORTS |
— Focus: This week is shortened by the Martin Luther King Jr. federal holiday on Monday (markets closed) and includes several catch-up releases of delayed data such as inflation and GDP.
Mon., Jan. 19
• U.S. stock and bond markets closed; bank and government services closed for the federal holiday.
• International: Canada CPI | China GDP, retail sales, industrial production, fixed assets investment | Eurozone CPI
• The annual World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland, through Jan. 23. President Donald Trump, leading the biggest US delegation ever, will be among more than 60 heads of state attending.
• Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels to pick a nominee for the next ECB vice president, a key step in the succession process as Luis de Guindos’ term ends in May. ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone attends.
Tue., Jan. 20
• International: China loan prime rates
• A target date set by President Donald Trump for banks to cap US credit card interest rates at 10% for a year.
• Earnings: Netflix, 3M, United Airlines Holdings
Wed., Jan. 21
• President Donald Trump is scheduled to address the World Economic Forum, pushing his economic and geopolitical agenda to the global stage.
• ECB President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council members Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Joachim Nagel speak on panels at the World Economic Forum.
• U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments in the case of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, whom President Trump has attempted to fire on mortgage-related allegations.
• Earnings: Johnson & Johnson. Kinder Morgan, Halliburton
Thur., Jan. 22
• U.S. Real GDP (Gross Domestic Product), Q4 (third estimate)
A key indicator of quarterly economic growth showing output for the last quarter of 2025.
• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — October & November
Includes both headline and core PCE inflation — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
• Personal Income and Personal Spending (Nov)
Reflects household income and consumption trends.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
A labor market indicator showing applications for unemployment benefits.
• International: ECB publishes account of its Dec. 18 rate decision.
• Earnings: Intel, GE Aerospace, Procter & Gamble
Fri., Jan. 23
• S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Early estimate of manufacturing sector activity.
• S&P Global Flash Services PMI (Jan)
Early estimate of services activity.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final, Jan)
A gauge of consumer confidence and expectations.
• International: Canada retail sales | Russia trade
• Bank of Japan is expected to hold its policy settings steady, with focus on whether Governor Kazuo Ueda offers any hints on the timing of the next rate hike.
• ECB President Christine Lagarde is part of a dialogue on “The Global Economic Outlook” at Davos, along with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva and others.
| — AG REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Focus: China’s third batch of trade data for December, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities, will be published on Tuesday.
Mon., Jan. 19
• U.S. markets closed; bank and government services closed for the federal holiday.
• China’s 4Q pork output and inventory
Tue., Jan. 20
• China’s 3rd batch of Dec. trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities
• Export inspections
• Chicken & Eggs
• Malaysia Jan. 1-20 palm oil exports
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Wed., Jan. 21
• Rural America at a Glance, a yearly USDA report on social and economic trends in rural areas.
Thur., Jan. 22
• Livestock Slaughter
• Slaughter Weekly
Fri., Jan. 23
• CFTC weekly commitments of traders data
• Milk Production
• Cold Storage
• Cotton Ginnings
• Peanut Prices
| — ENERGY REPORTS |
— Focus: The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum will take place in Davos, with energy challenges and climate change among topics being discussed by senior executives and politicians. President Donald Trump is due to deliver a keynote address on Wednesday. The International Energy Agency will issue its monthly outlook for the oil market, completing the monthly cycle for the forecasting agencies. Energy industry services companies SLB and Halliburton will unveil 4Q results
Mon., Jan. 19
• Holiday: U.S., Venezuela
Tue., Jan. 20
• China’s third batch of December trade data, including country breakdowns for energy and commodities
• WTI futures for February expire
• TotalEnergies releases 4Q trading statement
• Holiday: Azerbaijan
Wed., Jan. 21
• China’s December output data for base metals and oil products
• Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region
• IEA monthly oil market report
• API weekly report on U.S. oil inventories (delayed a day by earlier U.S. holiday)
• Earnings: Halliburton 4Q
Thur., Jan. 22
• Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data
• Insights Global weekly oil-product inventories in Europe’s ARA region
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
Fri., Jan. 23
• IEA to publish 1Q gas market report
• Baker Hughes weekly rig count report
• ICE Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report



— Supreme Court set to weigh Trump’s control over the FedJustices will hear a first-of-its-kind case on whether a president can fire a Fed governor “for cause,” with central bank independence at stake The Supreme Court of the United States will hear arguments this week on whether Donald Trump can remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve for alleged mortgage fraud — the first firing of a sitting Fed governor. The case turns on the Fed’s statutory rule allowing removals only “for cause,” a term the law does not define. Trump says alleged misconduct qualifies; Cook argues the claim is unproven, predates her appointment, and that she was denied due process. All sides agree policy disagreements, such as interest-rate votes, are not valid grounds. The Court has recently weakened firing protections at other independent agencies but has suggested the Fed may warrant special treatment. Cook is backed by former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and Janet Yellen, plus former Treasury secretaries; conservative legal groups and Republican state AGs support Trump. Adding pressure, Jerome Powell disclosed a Justice Dept. subpoena tied to a criminal probe over Fed headquarters renovation costs — an issue that could surface at oral arguments. Powell’s term as chair ends May 15; a decision in Cook’s case is expected by late June. Why it matters: The ruling could redefine presidential power over independent agencies and the future independence of U.S. monetary policy. — Fed official sees rates near neutral, signals patienceVice Chair Philip Jefferson says current policy gives officials flexibility as inflation cools and labor risks rise Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said interest rates are close to a neutral level, leaving the Fed well positioned to adjust policy as new data and risks emerge. Jefferson said recent services and shelter inflation data point toward the Fed’s 2% target, while tariff-related goods inflation is unlikely to be lasting. He acknowledged rising downside risks to the labor market but expects unemployment to remain stable in 2026. After three rate cuts late last year, most officials now support holding rates steady. Markets expect no change at the Jan. 27–28 meeting, with policymakers projecting just one cut in 2026. Jefferson also stressed that renewed asset purchases are aimed at stabilizing bank reserves — not stimulating the economy — and voiced strong support for Chair Jerome Powell amid scrutiny over a Fed renovation project. — Iowa House moves to block eminent domain for CO₂ pipelinesLandowner rights clash with carbon capture and ethanol expansion goals An Iowa House subcommittee has advanced House Study Bill 507, which would ban carbon dioxide pipeline operators from using eminent domain to acquire private land. Supporters, led by Rep. Steven Holt (R-Denison), argue the bill protects constitutional property rights and does not prevent pipelines from being built if landowners agree voluntarily. Opponents warn the bill would effectively halt the proposed pipeline by Summit Carbon Solutions, which is intended to link Midwest ethanol plants to underground CO₂ storage and help ethanol qualify for ultra-low carbon fuel markets. Summit representatives say the measure would “kill” the project and cost Iowa economic opportunities and jobs. The issue continues to divide Iowa Republicans, with Senate leaders signaling interest in a narrower alternative that would allow route flexibility rather than a full ban. The bill now heads to the House Judiciary Committee, setting up another House/Senate showdown after a similar proposal was vetoed last year by Gov. Kim Reynolds. 