Dietary Guidelines Spark Food Fight
Arctic flashpoint: U.S. push for Greenland ignites alliance strains
| LINKS |
Link: New Dietary Guidelines Signal Shift Toward Whole Foods,
Protein Focus, and Sharp Limits on Added Sugars
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 4
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 4
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 8, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Dietary guidelines spark food fight as Kennedy targets sugar, embraces full-fat foods: Kennedy says the “war on saturated fats” is over and shifts the spotlight to added sugar and ultraprocessed foods; Rollins says the guidance will drive rewrites across school meals, SNAP (including the “stocking rule”), WIC and other federal feeding programs—splitting health advocates and energizing meat/dairy supporters.
— Dietary guidelines panel had financial ties to beef, dairy, and food companies: Exclusive STAT reporting says several advisers who shaped the new guidelines disclosed recent financial links to beef, dairy and major food firms, raising conflict-of-interest questions and accusations of hypocrisy given Kennedy’s corporate-influence critiques.
— Arctic flashpoint: U.S. push for Greenland ignites alliance strains: Trump’s renewed push to “acquire” Greenland — purchase talks plus not-ruling-out force — sparks bipartisan concern in Congress and joint pushback from European/NATO partners, while Denmark and Greenland stress sovereignty and warn of damage to alliance cohesion.
— Why Washington already has what it wants in Greenland: Analysts argue the U.S. already has expansive military access under a long-standing U.S./Denmark defense agreement (updated to include Greenland’s government), making sovereignty gains marginal while political and diplomatic costs would be enormous; minerals access, they note, doesn’t require ownership.
— Perspective on Venezuela oil to U.S.: Trump claims Venezuela will start turning over oil production to the U.S., but Caracas hasn’t responded; the volumes cited amount to only a few days of U.S. consumption, though major traders (including Trafigura) are reportedly in talks about resuming Venezuelan crude flows.
— A war over Taiwan could backfire badly for Beijing: A German Marshall Fund analysis argues a failed Taiwan conflict could impose catastrophic costs on China — heavy casualties, massive economic losses, domestic unrest and global blowback that could weaken Beijing’s influence networks and derail Xi’s ambitions.
— Trump invited to deliver State of the Union address on Feb. 24: Speaker Johnson’s invitation sets up Trump’s first second-term SOTU as a major messaging moment ahead of midterms, with the White House under pressure to address affordability concerns and defend high-profile foreign policy actions.
— Hoyer to retire, closing chapter on four-decade House career: Rep. Steny Hoyer is expected to announce plans to retire, ending a leadership-era career that began in 1981 and opening a safe Democratic Maryland seat amid continued turnover among long-serving lawmakers.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global stocks and U.S. futures are slightly softer as investors weigh geopolitics and incoming data, while defense shares show strength amid renewed security spending focus.
— Equities yesterday (Jan. 7 close): U.S. stocks were mixed to lower — Dow slid sharply while Nasdaq eked out a gain and the S&P 500 eased.
AG MARKETS
— Bayer’s ambitions boosted by relaxation of EU gene-edited crop rules: The EU’s shift to ease rules for certain gene-edited crops is a potential long-term win for Bayer and European seed innovation, though final approvals and public acceptance still stand between policy change and commercial impact.
— Mexico establishes 2026 import quotas for rice, beef, and pork: Mexico set sizable duty-free import quotas to stabilize supply and consumer prices — addressing rice’s structural shortfall and managing rising beef/pork import dependence through a bidding-based allocation system.
— Brazilian meatpackers scramble for workarounds as China beef quota bites: Brazil’s beef sector is debating quota-sharing and pressing Beijing to exempt shipments already in transit as exporters warn the new cap could disrupt flows and heighten cattle-price volatility.
— Brazil set to hold top spot in global cotton exports despite smaller crop: Even with slightly lower yields and output, analysts still see Brazil extending its lead in cotton exports thanks to scale and competitiveness, widening the gap over projected U.S. shipments.
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grains were mostly higher led by soybeans/meal; cattle and hogs were lower, and cotton eased.
FARM POLICY
— House Ag panel delays skinny farm bill markup after member death, absence: Chair Thompson says January skinny farm bill action is slipping due to the LaMalfa vacancy, Baird’s hospitalization, and pending CBO scores, adding uncertainty to timing and strategy this year.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Thursday: Oil prices steady after early slide on oversupply signals and Venezuela developments: Brent and WTI stabilized after recent declines as markets absorbed large U.S. fuel stock builds and tracked evolving Venezuelan crude flows.
— Wednesday: Oil prices slide as markets digest U.S./Venezuela crude deal and looming 2026 oversupply: Prices fell as traders priced in extra barrels tied to a U.S./Venezuela arrangement and broader expectations of a sizable global surplus in early 2026.
— Corteva, BP launch crop-oil biofuels venture: The companies formed a 50:50 JV to scale intermediate oilseed crops into SAF/renewable diesel feedstocks, targeting first supply in 2027 and sizable mid-2030s volumes without expanding farmland.
— Indonesia signals palm oil levy hike to fund higher biodiesel blending: Jakarta may raise export levies as subsidy funds tighten under the B40 mandate and preparations for B50, with officials weighing higher rates to keep the program financed.
— ACE presses Congress for permanent year-round E15 access: Ethanol and farm groups urge quick legislative action to lock in year-round E15 nationwide, arguing reliance on emergency waivers depresses investment and demand certainty.
TRADE POLICY
— Mexico opens antidumping probe into U.S. apple imports: Mexico launched an investigation into alleged dumping of U.S. apples, citing preliminary evidence of price discrimination and injury to domestic growers, with set periods for the probe and stakeholder filings.
— Italy pushes to tighten import safeguards in Mercosur deal talks: Italy is pressing to lower safeguard triggers in the EU/Mercosur pact and strengthen reciprocity on standards as an EU decision point nears, potentially complicating approval math.
CHINA
— Carney to make first Canadian PM visit to China in nearly a decade: Canada’s PM will visit China Jan. 13–17 to expand trade and broader engagement as Ottawa seeks diversification amid U.S. uncertainty and ongoing canola/EV-related frictions with Beijing.
CONGRESS
— Bipartisan moderates push fiscal commission as debt tops $38 trillion: The Problem Solvers Caucus is backing legislation to create a fiscal commission and urging Budget Committee action, pitching a centrist path to tackle mounting debt despite long odds.
— Democrats draw a line: ObamaCare subsidy renewal must come first in 2026 tax talks: Top Democratic tax staff say an ACA subsidy deal is the gatekeeper for extenders and other bipartisan tax items, while Republicans outline areas for later compromise once healthcare is addressed.
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
— Trump orders U.S. exit from dozens of international bodies: A sweeping “America First” pullback targets numerous multilateral forums, with Rubio arguing participation yields little value and critics warning the move cedes influence to rivals like China and Russia.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
— STB moves to repeal decades-old rail competition rules: The Surface Transportation Board proposes scrapping Part 1144 and returning to case-by-case statutory authority for reciprocal switching and through routes/rates—framed as pro-competition and deregulatory for captive shippers.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Snow risk targets southeastern Colorado into New Mexico late Thursday into Friday; another snow threat reaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday; severe weather/flash flooding risk develops across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday; unusual warmth spreads from the Southeast into the Ohio Valley.
TOP STORIES—Dietary guidelines spark food fight as Kennedy targets sugar, embraces full-fat foodsNew federal nutrition guidance reshapes school meals, SNAP rules, and military food programs — drawing praise from meat and dairy groups and sharp criticism from some health advocates Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. declared that the long-running “war on saturated fats is over,” shifting the focus of the new Dietary Guidelines toward a crackdown on added sugars and a strong discouragement of ultraprocessed foods. Kennedy blamed decades of corporate influence and prior administrations for promoting highly processed diets that have fueled U.S. obesity rates, while emphasizing that the guidelines were developed with input from groups including the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics. “The new guidelines recognize that whole, nutrient-dense food is the most effective path to better health and lower health care costs,” Kennedy said. “Protein and healthy fats are essential, and were wrongly discouraged in prior dietary guidelines.” He added: “We are ending the war on saturated fats. Our government declares war on added sugar today.” The guidelines do not change limits on saturated fats but do encourage eating “healthy fat,” which they say includes beef tallow and butter as well as olive oil. They also include a new, inverted food pyramid, emphasizing the consumption of fruits and vegetables along with protein, dairy, and “healthy fats,” to replace the MyPlate chart that had previously provided visual guidance for American diets.USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the new guidelines will be applied broadly across federal programs, triggering rewrites of school meal standards, food served to the military and veterans, meals in federal prisons, the Head Start program, and purchasing rules under the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC). Rollins also announced plans to overhaul the SNAP “stocking rule,” which governs what the more than 250,000 SNAP-authorized retailers must carry — changes she said are especially important for convenience stores that serve as primary food outlets in low-income neighborhoods. The guidelines do not define ultra-processed or highly processed foods, but warn about foods that are salty or sweet, sugar-sweetened beverages, artificial flavors, petroleum-based dyes, artificial preservatives, and low-calorie non-nutritive sweeteners in food and drink. The revamped food pyramid prominently features a slab of beef, a thick wedge of cheese, and a half gallon of whole milk as foods that should form the core of Americans’ diets. Health groups offered a mixed response. The American Heart Association praised the guidelines’ emphasis on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and limits on added sugars and ultraprocessed foods, calling it an opportunity to better educate consumers on nutrition science. At the same time, the group warned that recommendations on salt seasoning, red meat, and whole-fat dairy could inadvertently push Americans above safe limits for sodium and saturated fat. The Heart Association reiterated its preference for low-fat and fat-free dairy and urged consumers to prioritize plant-based proteins, seafood, and lean meats until more research clarifies optimal protein intake. School nutrition advocates as usual focused on implementation challenges. The School Nutrition Association acknowledged earlier concerns that cutting ultraprocessed foods could raise costs but said Congress now has an opportunity to invest in scratch cooking and more fresh, local foods, pledging to work with the administration on updated standards. Industry reaction was swift and largely supportive. •Meat and poultry groups welcomed the emphasis on protein. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said the guidelines “are simplified and more consumer-friendly than previous cycles” and keep “science-backed recommendations at the heart of the DGAs, but makes them far more practical for the families, caregivers, school administrators, and medical professionals who are making decisions every day about what to feed our children, seniors and Americans of all ages.” • Dairy organizations hailed the endorsement of whole and full-fat dairy as a win for consumer choice and nutrient density. National Milk Producers Federation President & CEO Gregg Doud said the guidelines “encourage consumption of dairy nutrients critical to human health. Meanwhile, not all fats are created equal, and because the guidelines acknowledge this, dairy’s benefits are better reflected in this iteration of the guidelines.” • Corn Refiners Association, President and CEO John Bode, regarding how the guidelines’ recommendation to avoid highly processed foods ignored the fact that the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee’s scientific report concluded there was not a scientific basis for recommending against processed food consumption: “For the first time in 40 years, the Dietary Guidelines for Americans have disregarded the scientific report of the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee. This deviation from past practice undermines both the credibility and scientific foundation of the Dietary Guidelines. For future editions of the Dietary Guidelines to be effective, the recommendations of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine should be utilized to enhance the scientific rigor of this important process.” • Oilseed and soybean groups said they appreciated recognition of essential fatty acids but pushed back against rhetoric questioning the safety of vegetable oils, warning of ripple effects across the broader food system if demand weakens. The American Soybean Association said: “The new guidelines highlight the importance of increased protein consumption, including plant-based proteins such as soy-based foods. They also emphasize prioritizing healthy fats, including oils rich in essential fatty acids like soybean oil. However, the report’s addenda continue to call into question the process of soybean oil extraction, which is scientifically proven to be safe for human health.” “ASA appreciates that the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans acknowledge the importance of soy as part of a well-balanced diet, but we remain deeply concerned by the rhetoric and selectively cited studies regarding the health and safety of soybean oil in DGA supporting material,” ASA President and Ohio farmer Scott Metzger said. The National Oilseed Processors Association said in a statement that the some of the “appendices rely on a narrow evidence base with limited citations, which is concerning given the administration’s rhetoric questioning the safety of certain vegetable oils despite an established scientific consensus.” On Capitol Hill, Senate Ag Committee Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark,) and House Ag Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) praised the guidelines as balanced and practical, highlighting their focus on whole, nutrient-dense foods. In contrast, Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), the top Democrat on the House Education and Workforce Committee, argued the guidance lacks specificity, prioritizes politics over evidence, and risks undermining student health — particularly as schools expand access to whole milk under recent legislation. —Dietary guidelines panel had financial ties to beef, dairy, and food companiesExclusive STAT reporting finds industry-linked advisers shaped Trump administration’s new nutrition advice despite vows to purge corporate influence A scientific review panel that played a central role in shaping the Trump administration’s newly released Dietary Guidelines for Americans included multiple advisers with recent financial ties to the beef, dairy, and broader food industries, according to an exclusive investigation by STAT reporters Isabella Cueto and Sarah Todd. The guidelines, unveiled Wednesday and championed by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., give prominent placement to meat and dairy products — a sharp break from prior federal advice that emphasized plant-based foods and low-fat dairy. Nutrition experts say the recommendations downplay risks associated with saturated fat and appear aligned with industry interests. The conflicts are disclosed in a scientific report published alongside the guidelines, which effectively replaced the work of the Biden-era Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee. That earlier panel had spent months reviewing nutrition research and recommended greater emphasis on plant-based diets and reduced-fat dairy — positions the Trump administration rejected as overly focused on health equity. “This is rife with conflicts of interest,” Lindsey Smith Taillie, a nutrition epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health, told STAT after reviewing the disclosures. She said several panelists are known advocates on issues such as meat consumption and sugar, raising concerns about bias in the scientific foundation of the guidelines. The revelations are especially striking given Kennedy’s repeated criticism of what he calls “corporate-driven assumptions” behind past dietary advice. At Wednesday’s White House event, Kennedy and FDA Commissioner Marty Makary praised meat and dairy consumption and derided previous guidance as the product of a “corrupt food pyramid.” Industry ties disclosed. Among the organizations cited in panelists’ disclosures were the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, General Mills, and the National Dairy Council. At least four of the nine panelists reported recent financial relationships with beef or dairy interests. STAT reports that Heather Leidy of the University of Texas at Austin received funding from the Beef Checkoff program and served in advisory or consulting roles for multiple major food companies. Her colleague Tom Brenna reported consulting and research relationships with beef and dairy groups, as well as work for food manufacturers. Other panelists disclosed ties to protein supplement companies, low-carbohydrate diet brands, infant formula makers, and agricultural trade organizations. The Department of Health and Human Services did not respond to STAT’s request for comment. Critics cry hypocrisy. Christopher Gardner, a Stanford nutrition scientist who served on the most recent advisory committee and was previously criticized by “Make America Healthy Again” allies for accepting funding from plant-based meat companies, called the situation “hypocrisy.” “We were slandered for bowing and cow-towing to the food industry,” Gardner told STAT. “These conflicts are more direct than ours with Big Meat, Big Dairy.” Watchdog group U.S. Right to Know noted that while conflicts of interest are common in nutrition science, several panelists should have been disqualified based on their financial relationships. Executive Director Gary Ruskin said limiting disclosures to the past three years — rather than five — further weakened transparency. A familiar problem in nutrition policy. Supporters of the new guidelines argue that industry ties are nearly unavoidable in nutrition research, where private funding is widespread. Critics counter that such relationships risk shaping federal policy in ways that favor commercial interests over public health. The dietary guidelines will remain in effect through 2030, when a new advisory process is expected to begin. As STAT’s reporting underscores, the debate over industry influence in federal nutrition policy is far from settled — even under an administration that promised to root it out.—Arctic flashpoint: U.S. push for Greenland ignites alliance strainsTrump renews bids to “acquire” the Danish territory — from purchase to military options — as NATO partners and Greenlandic leaders push back amid broader global tensions Global policymakers are already confronting a new flashpoint: the United States’ controversial bid to gain control over Greenland. What began as talk of a strategic purchase has escalated into a broader debate over sovereignty, alliance norms, and military options — with implications reaching far beyond the Arctic. What’s happening now: The White House says it’s actively exploring a range of options to “acquire” Greenland, including diplomatic approaches and even the possible use of U.S. military force if necessary, framing the island as critical to national security amid great-power competition. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told lawmakers the priority remains a negotiated transfer or purchase, not an invasion — though the administration has not definitively ruled out force. Analysts say Trump wants to block China from gaining a foothold in the Arctic, where melting ice is opening new sea lanes that could redraw global trade and military balances. Another major concern is Chinese and Russian ballistic missile submarines, equipped with nuclear weapons, roaming the Northwest Passage.  Political pushback at home and abroad: Lawmakers in both parties are alarmed; some are considering legislation requiring Congressional authorization before any military action. European leaders and NATO allies — including Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the U.K. — have issued joint statements affirming that Greenland’s future should be decided solely by Denmark and Greenlanders, rejecting external coercion. Denmark’s prime minister has warned that a forcible U.S. takeover of Greenland would undermine NATO’s very foundations. Possible pathways under discussion: Analysts have sketched out several scenarios:• Diplomatic “Compact of Free Association” deals in which Greenland retains autonomy while granting the U.S. expanded basing and defense privileges.• Peaceful purchase negotiations, echoing earlier discussions from late 2025.• Direct military action: though many experts see this as extreme, its mere mention has alarmed European capitals. Greenlandic and Danish responses: Greenland’s leaders have been emphatic that the island is not for sale, and that its people should choose their own destiny. Opinion polls show a strong preference for independence from external powers rather than acquisition by the United States. Denmark, which handles Greenland’s defense and foreign affairs, has sought urgent discussions with U.S. diplomats to clarify intentions. Broader consequences: Allies fear that even idle talk of military options against a NATO partner could erode trust across the alliance and boost adversaries like Russia. A breakdown in cooperation over Greenland could ripple into Arctic security, energy markets, defense planning, and broader U.S./European cooperation. Why Washington Already Has What It Wants in Greenland Experts say Washington already enjoys nearly everything it would seek, thanks to a little-known 1951 U.S./Denmark defense agreement that grants the United States extraordinary military latitude across Greenland.What the U.S. already has• The pact allows the U.S. to build, operate, and expand bases, house personnel, and control movements of ships and aircraft anywhere on the island.• Today, the U.S. maintains one base — Pittufik Space Base — critical for missile tracking over the Arctic, but the agreement permits far more.• A 2004 update formally included Greenland’s semiautonomous government, requiring consultation on major changes, while still recognizing Greenland as part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Why buying Greenland is a nonstarter• Greenland isn’t for sale, and Denmark lacks authority to sell it• Greenlanders — about 57,000 people — have the right to decide their future; 85% oppose an American takeover.• Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen has repeatedly dismissed the idea: “Our country is not for sale.”• Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers buying Greenland remains the president’s preferred option, but Danish officials call it impossible. History and heightened tensions• The original pact traces back to World War II, when the U.S. moved to block Nazi use of Greenland as a steppingstone to North America.• During the Cold War, the U.S. ran multiple bases and radar sites; most closed after the 1990s.• Recent events — including the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro — have sharpened anxiety in Copenhagen and Nuuk. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that threats against Greenland undermine the international order. If security is the goal, why not use the pact? Danish officials note the irony: if Washington truly wanted to bolster Arctic security now, it could do so within the existing framework. No formal U.S. request has been made. Beyond security: minerals. Greenland’s vast critical-minerals potential also attracts U.S. interest — but analysts say access doesn’t require sovereignty. Greenland has signaled it’s open to business with foreign partners. Bottom Line: The United States already holds sweeping military access in Greenland under long-standing agreements. Buying — or seizing — the island would add little strategically, while provoking enormous political backlash at home and abroad. — Perspective on Venezuela oil to U.S.: President Trump has said that Venezuela would begin turning over oil production to the United States as the country’s economy slides closer to collapse. Venezuelan officials have not responded to the claim. For context, the 30 million to 50 million barrels Trump cited would cover only two to three days of U.S. oil consumption. Still, major traders — including Trafigura — are in discussions with Washington about resuming purchases of Venezuelan crude. —A war over Taiwan could backfire badly for BeijingA new analysis argues that the economic, political, and social fallout of a failed Taiwan conflict would pose an existential threat to China’s long-term ambitions Much of the debate around a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait has centered on whether the United States and its allies could successfully defend Taiwan. A new report from the German Marshall Fund of the United States flips that lens, arguing that analysts have paid too little attention to what China itself would stand to lose if such a war were launched — particularly if it ended in failure. The costs outlined in the report are staggering. Researchers estimate casualties could exceed 100,000, while the economic damage could reach roughly $10 trillion. Beyond the battlefield, the report warns of severe domestic consequences, including social unrest inside China and a sharp deterioration in Beijing’s global standing. That international fallout could be just as destabilizing. The authors suggest a Taiwan conflict could prompt countries to distance themselves from China-led groupings and initiatives, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and the Belt and Road Initiative, undermining Beijing’s influence across Asia, Africa, and beyond. For President Xi Jinping, the risks strike at the heart of his governing vision. “He needs to ensure that China’s economy is on the right footing and its military capabilities continue to grow; that there is social stability in China; and that China basically has good relations with the rest of the world,” said project leader Bonnie Glaser. “If the world turns against China, doesn’t trade with China or invest in China,” Glaser added, “that would be catastrophic for his Chinese dream.” The report’s central argument is that deterrence is not just about U.S. and allied capabilities, but also about making clear to Beijing that the price of a Taiwan war could fundamentally derail China’s own aspirations. —Trump invited to deliver State of the Union address on Feb. 24Speaker Johnson extends invitation as Trump faces political and foreign policy crossroads House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) officially invited President Donald Trump to deliver the State of the Union address on February 24 — marking the president’s first such address of his second term and a major opportunity to define the GOP’s agenda ahead of this year’s crucial midterm elections. Trump’s address comes at a politically sensitive moment. Polling shows growing voter dissatisfaction with his economic leadership, especially regarding affordability and cost-of-living concerns — issues that Democrats capitalized on in recent elections. Countering these perceptions and laying out economic and legislative priorities will be central to Republican messaging as they seek to retain narrow majorities in both the House and Senate. He will also speak against the backdrop of escalating foreign policy events, particularly after a controversial U.S. military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and has sparked debate over U.S. intervention and legal authority. This unexpected geopolitical crisis adds another layer of complexity to the president’s State of the Union, with implications for both domestic and international audiences. Upshot: The address will offer Trump a platform to defend his economic record, articulate future policy goals, and frame recent foreign policy actions — all with an eye toward shaping voter sentiment as the midterm elections approach. —Hoyer to retire, closing chapter on four-decade House careerVeteran Maryland Democrat and former House No. 2 leader plans to step aside after 45 years in Congress Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer is set to announce his retirement from the U.S. House as soon as today, bringing to a close a congressional career that began in 1981, according to two people familiar with the plans who spoke ahead of a public announcement. The development was first reported by Politico. Hoyer, whose district spans the eastern suburbs of Washington, D.C., to southern Maryland, rose through Democratic leadership to become the party’s second-ranking House member under then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Known as a skilled vote-counter and institutionalist, Hoyer played a central role in shaping Democratic legislative strategy for decades. After Democrats lost the House in 2022, Hoyer stepped aside from leadership as part of a broader generational transition but remained in Congress. He later reclaimed a senior position on the House Appropriations Committee, continuing to wield influence over federal spending priorities even outside the leadership ladder. Hoyer’s retirement will open a safely Democratic seat in Maryland and mark another milestone in the ongoing turnover among long-serving House lawmakers, according to Politico. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Markets are cautious and slightly softer early Thursday, with U.S. and global equities easing after recent gains as investors weigh geopolitical developments, policy shifts, and incoming economic data. Global defense stocks rallied on Thursday, extending gains after President Donald Trump called for a $1.5 trillion defense budget in 2027. U.S. stock futures were softer, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq futures all trading lower early in the session. S&P 500 futures were down about 0.2%, echoing a more cautious tone after recent record highs. Asian equities were mostly weaker, with Tokyo’s Nikkei down and the Hang Seng off as investors digested U.S. policy moves and awaited key U.S. job data. European stocks also edged lower, halting an early year rally on disappointing retail earnings, though defense stocks showed strength amid geopolitical concerns.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Jan. 7 | Point Difference from Jan. 6 | % Difference from Jan. 6 |
| Dow | 48,996.08 | -466.00 | -0.94% |
| Nasdaq | 23,584.27 | +37.10 | +0.16% |
| S&P 500 | 6,920.93 | -23.89 | -0.34% |
—Bayer’s ambitions boosted by relaxation of EU gene-edited crop rules
German life sciences giant says looser regulations could reshape Europe’s €6bn ($6.5 billion) seed market and revive long-constrained crop innovation
The European Union’s decision to ease restrictions on gene-edited crops is opening new opportunities for Bayer, potentially reshaping a European seed market worth about €6 billion ($6.5 billion) after decades of tight biotech regulation.
Under the new framework agreed in Brussels, the European Union will distinguish between older genetically modified organisms and newer gene-editing techniques. Crops that involve precise edits to a plant’s own DNA — changes that could also occur naturally — will no longer face the EU’s most burdensome GMO rules, while plants containing foreign DNA will remain tightly regulated.
For Bayer, which has long argued that Europe’s biotech rules have pushed innovation overseas, the shift is seen as a strategic breakthrough. Company executives say it could eventually allow European farmers access to gene-edited crops already common in the United States and parts of Asia, including wheat varieties designed to improve yields or reduce fertilizer use.
The regulatory reset follows years of debate after a 2018 EU court ruling effectively treated gene-edited crops the same as traditional GMOs. Supporters of the change say the new approach better reflects scientific advances and could help Europe meet sustainability and food-security goals.
Any commercial impact will be gradual. Final approval by EU governments and the European Parliament is still required, with implementation expected around 2026. Public acceptance and national politics will also shape uptake.
Still, Bayer argues the change restores Europe’s relevance in crop innovation — reopening a market that has been constrained more by regulation than by science.
| AG MARKETS |
—Mexico establishes 2026 import quotas for rice, beef, and pork to stabilize supply and prices
Decrees authorize more than 320,000 tonnes of duty-free imports as authorities seek to balance domestic shortages, diversify suppliers, and protect consumers
Mexico’s Ministry of Economy has issued a series of decrees setting import quotas for rice, beef, and pork for 2026, aiming to ensure adequate domestic supply, stabilize consumer prices, and reduce reliance on a narrow group of trading partners. The measures, published in the Official Gazette, authorize more than 320,000 tonnes of combined duty-free imports and align with the country’s National Development Plan 2025–2030.
Rice: 200,000-tonne quota to cover structural shortfall. The government approved a 200,000-tonne import quota for paddy (unmilled) rice for all of 2026, reflecting Mexico’s long-standing dependence on foreign supply. Domestic production reached just 105,825 tonnes by October 2025, down 0.7% from a year earlier, and imports accounted for roughly 84% of available rice supply in 2024. While the United States remains a major source, authorities highlighted growing diversification in 2025, with approved phytosanitary access for suppliers such as Brazil, Guyana, and Uruguay. Officials said the quota is designed to supplement national output without discouraging local production and to help maintain price stability.
Beef: 70,000 tonnes to curb rising import dependence. For beef, the Ministry established a 70,000-tonne quota covering fresh, chilled, and frozen product through the end of 2026. Although domestic production historically meets more than 90% of consumption, import dependence has been rising — reaching nearly 12% in 2025 after a sharp increase in volumes during 2024. Brazil emerged as Mexico’s leading supplier last year, and the quota size roughly matches recent Brazilian shipments. Authorities said the measure will diversify supply sources while avoiding disruption to domestic cattle producers.
Pork: 51,000-tonne quota renewed amid ongoing deficit. Mexico also renewed a 51,000-tonne quota for pork imports, unchanged from the prior year. Pork remains the country’s second-most consumed animal protein after chicken, yet domestic production covers only about 57% of demand, with imports supplying the balance. The government cited heavy concentration among suppliers — mainly the United States and Canada, which together account for more than 80% of imports — as justification for maintaining the quota to encourage broader competition without harming national producers.
Allocation mechanism. All three quotas will be allocated via public bidding under a “minimum price” modality administered by the General Directorate of Trade Facilitation and Foreign Trade. Eligible companies established in Mexico may participate, and successful bidders will receive transferable import certificates valid through Dec. 31, 2026.
—Brazilian meatpackers scramble for workarounds as China beef quota bites
Industry debates quota allocation, seeks carve-outs for shipments in transit, and pushes Beijing for flexibility as export volumes far exceed new limits
Brazilian meatpackers are weighing emergency measures to cope with China’s newly imposed 1.1 million-tonne beef import quota, which carries a steep 55% tariff on volumes above the cap. The sudden constraint has triggered internal industry debates, pressure on Brasília to intervene diplomatically, and concerns about price volatility in Brazil’s cattle market.
One proposal under discussion is to allocate the quota among exporters, potentially based on recent export performance. Proponents argue that this would prevent a disorderly rush by slaughterhouses to buy cattle and front-load shipments to China — behavior that could depress cattle prices during a seasonally strong pasture-fed supply period.
Alcides Torres, director at consultancy Scot Consultoria, warned that without coordination, competition to ship within the quota could destabilize the market. He said distributing volumes could reduce the incentive for exporters to flood the system early in the year.
Industry divisions complicate quota sharing. Reaching consensus, however, may prove difficult. Industry sources point to lingering tensions between MBRF — created from the merger of Marfrig and BRF — and Minerva, which opposed the deal in 2025. Minerva’s expanded China-bound capacity following acquisitions, but limited historical export data, complicates any formula based on past performance. Both companies declined to comment.
Shipments in transit become flashpoint. Beyond internal allocation, meatpackers are urging the Brazilian government to ensure that cargoes already at Chinese ports or en route are excluded from the quota, which took effect Jan. 1. Those shipments total roughly 350,000 tonnes. If counted, only about 750,000 tonnes would remain available for all of 2026.
Paulo Bellicanta, president of Mato Grosso meatpackers’ association Sindifrigo MT, warned that this would leave exporters with just 62,500 tonnes per month—far below recent shipment levels exceeding 160,000 tonnes per month. He argued that only direct government-to-government talks with Beijing can produce a workable solution.
Seeking flexibility beyond Brazil. The industry is also asking China to allow reallocation of unused quota volumes from other suppliers that fail to fill their caps. Alongside Brazil, exporters such as Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, and the United States have also been granted quotas.
Upshot: For Brazil’s beef sector, the quota marks a sharp break from recent growth trends — and sets up a year of diplomatic pressure, internal bargaining, and heightened risk for cattle prices if no compromise emerges with China.
—Brazil set to hold top spot in global cotton exports despite smaller crop
Lower yields and regional acreage shifts trim 2025/26 output, but export volumes are still seen rising well above U.S. levels
Brazil is expected to retain its position as the world’s leading cotton exporter in the 2025/26 season, even as production eases from last year’s record, according to analysts at Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea).
Cepea projects that national output will decline modestly but still rank as Brazil’s second-largest cotton crop on record. Exports remain the dominant outlet for production, underpinned by Brazil’s scale, cost competitiveness, and continued advances in traceability and sustainability.
Planted area is forecast to rise just 0.7% year on year to about 2.1 million hectares, based on estimates from Conab. Gains of roughly 4% in the North and Northeast are expected to offset a slight 0.4% contraction in the Center-South.
Yields, however, are projected to fall 3.5% to around 1.9 tonnes per hectare, pulling total output down to about 3.96 million tonnes—nearly 3% below last season.
Despite the smaller crop, Brazil’s export outlook remains strong. Shipments in 2025/26 are estimated at 3.157 million tonnes, up 11.4% from the previous season and almost 19% higher than projected exports from the United States, estimated near 2.656 million tonnes.
On profitability, Cepea cautions that currency movements will be decisive. Exchange-rate volatility means producers and traders will need to closely track export parity against domestic prices when making marketing decisions.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Close Jan. 7 | Change vs Jan. 6 |
| Corn | March | $4.46 3/4 | +2 3/4¢ |
| Soybeans | March | $10.67 | +10 3/4¢ |
| Soybean Meal | March | $305.40 | +$5.90 |
| Soybean Oil | March | 49.31¢ | -9 pts |
| Wheat (SRW) | March | $5.18 | +7 1/2¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | March | $5.31 1/2 | +10¢ |
| Wheat (Spring) | March | $5.70 1/2 | +3 1/4¢ |
| Cotton | March | 64.85¢ | -21 pts |
| Live Cattle | February | $234.525 | -$2.10 |
| Feeder Cattle | March | $355.50 | -$3.525 |
| Lean Hogs | February | $84.80 | -87 1/2¢ |
| FARM POLICY |
—House Ag panel delays skinny farm bill markup after member death, absence
Chair Thompson cites LaMalfa vacancy, Baird hospitalization, and pending CBO scores as hurdles to January action
House Ag Committee Chair Glenn GT Thompson (R-Pa.) said the panel will not move forward with plans to mark up a Farm Bill 2.0 in January, citing the death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) and the absence of Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.), who remains hospitalized following a car accident. “Well, unfortunately, we now have a vacancy on the committee with Mr. LaMalfa, his death today,” Thompson said. “And Dr. Baird will be in the hospital. I don’t know how long.”
Thompson added that he does not plan to immediately fill LaMalfa’s seat on the panel or appoint a new chair for the Forestry and Horticulture Subcommittee.
Beyond the personnel challenges, Thompson said the committee is still awaiting cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office on provisions expected to be included in a revised farm bill. “Before the holidays, we put in the last request of what we needed for Congressional Budget Office scores,” he said. “So the goal is to get all that accomplished in January.”
Thompson estimated the total cost of the farm bill — factoring in updates made through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — at roughly $1.3 trillion to $1.4 trillion over 10 years.
Comments: The delays add to growing uncertainty over whether lawmakers can complete a farm bill this year, especially with sustained Democrat opposition relative to food and nutrition spending and other factors.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Thursday: Oil prices steady after early slide on oversupply signals and Venezuela developments
Brent and WTI find footing as markets digest big U.S. fuel stock builds and evolving Venezuelan crude flows
Oil prices steadied on Thursday after two days of declines, with Brent near $60 a barrel and U.S. WTI around $56, as traders weighed fresh data showing larger-than-expected builds in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories and closely followed geopolitical developments in Venezuela.
Supplies are seen ample this year, with analysts forecasting a possible global crude surplus, which along with the U.S. refined product stock increases kept downward pressure on the market.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has moved to assert greater control over Venezuelan oil exports — including seizing tankers and securing access to crude — a shift that could alter global flows and further influence pricing dynamics.
—Wednesday: Oil prices slide as markets digest U.S./Venezuela crude deal and looming 2026 oversupply
Trump’s announcement on importing up to $2 billion of Venezuelan oil deepens expectations of abundant global supply next year, keeping Brent and WTI under pressure despite inventory data
Oil prices eased on Wednesday after traders absorbed news of a new U.S./Venezuelan crude arrangement that could channel significant volumes of oil into the world’s largest consumer and reinforce expectations of ample supply in 2026. Brent crude futures closed down 1.2% at $59.96 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 2% to $55.99 a barrel, reflecting persistent market concerns about a supply glut.
President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Venezuelan authorities to import up to $2 billion worth of crude, potentially involving the transfer of 30 million to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil into the United States. The plan would divert cargoes originally bound for China and help reduce Venezuela’s strained crude inventories, with the U.S. Energy Department tasked with overseeing logistics and proceeds.
Traders interpreted the deal as a sign of rising supply entering the global system, weighing on prices after recent gains. The future trajectory of Venezuelan exports remains uncertain amid broader U.S. actions to control or sell Caracas’ oil, including tanker seizures and geopolitical moves that have drawn international attention.
Adding to the downward pressure, many analysts now forecast a significant global oil surplus in the first half of 2026, with some predicting a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day due to weak demand growth and rising output from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
On the inventory front, early industry data showed U.S. crude stocks declining, offering some support to prices, but sizeable builds in gasoline and distillate supplies suggested demand may struggle to absorb incremental crude flows. Markets are also awaiting official government inventory figures later in the week for additional supply signals.
Overall, while geopolitical developments capture headlines, oversupply concerns are dominating market sentiment — a theme expected to persist into early 2026.
—Corteva, BP launch crop-oil biofuels venture
New 50:50 JV, Etlas, targets sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel using intermediate oilseed crops grown between food harvests
Corteva and BP said they have formed a 50:50 joint venture called Etlas to produce crop-based oils for biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel.
The venture will develop and supply feedstocks from crops such as canola, mustard, and sunflower, pairing Corteva’s seed development expertise with BP’s fuel refining and marketing capabilities. Initial supply is expected to begin in 2027, with feedstocks used both for co-processing at existing refineries and at dedicated biofuels facilities.
Etlas aims to produce about 1 million metric tonnes of feedstock annually by the mid-2030s, enough to generate more than 800,000 tonnes of biofuel, as demand for SAF and renewable diesel accelerates on airline decarbonization efforts and renewable fuel mandates.
The companies said the feedstocks will come from intermediate crops grown on existing farmland between main food crop seasons, avoiding land-use expansion while providing farmers an additional income stream and supporting soil management.
Personnel: Ignacio Conti, Corteva’s global business development director, will serve as Etlas’ CEO, while Gaurav Sonar, BP’s vice president for novel feedstocks, will chair the board. Both companies emphasized the venture’s “capital-light” structure and flexibility in strengthening BP’s biofuels supply chain and scaling reliable, cost-competitive SAF supply.
—Indonesia signals palm oil levy hike to fund higher biodiesel blending
Move aims to shore up dwindling subsidy funds as Jakarta pushes world-leading B40 mandate toward B50
Indonesia is preparing to raise its palm oil export levy to help finance an expanded biodiesel program, as government funds tighten under the weight of higher blending mandates. Energy ministry official Eniya Listiani Dewi said the increase is needed to sustain the country’s biodiesel subsidies, which are funded through export levies on crude and refined palm oil.
Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, already enforces a mandatory 40% palm-based biodiesel blend (B40) — the highest globally — and plans to lift the requirement to B50 later this year. An economic affairs ministry study has concluded that levy rates must rise to support either blending level, Dewi said, noting that cash reserves managed by the national plantation fund are being depleted.
Currently, the levy is set at 10% of the monthly reference price for crude palm oil, while rates on refined products range from 4.75% to 9.5%. Officials are scheduled to meet next week to discuss a potential increase.
Indonesia consumed 14.2 million kilolitres (3.75 billion gallons) of palm-based biodiesel in 2025 — up 7.6% year over year, according to energy ministry data. For 2026, the government has allocated 15.65 million kilolitres (4.13 billion gallon) to meet its blending mandate. A six-month B50 road test began in December, a key step toward full implementation.
—ACE presses Congress for permanent year-round E15 access
Ethanol, farm, and biofuel groups warn continued reliance on emergency waivers undermines markets, rural economies, and consumer savings
The American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) joined a broad coalition of farm, ethanol, and renewable fuel organizations in urging bipartisan congressional leaders to swiftly pass legislation guaranteeing permanent, year-round access to E15 nationwide.
In a letter (link) to House and Senate leadership, the coalition framed year-round E15 as a commonsense fix that would bolster farm income, strengthen rural economies, and give consumers a lower-cost fuel option. With record corn and sorghum crops filling storage, the groups warned that producers face continued margin pressure without predictable demand. “Markets need consistency and predictability, which requires permanent legislative action by Congress,” the coalition wrote.
Currently, summer E15 availability depends on temporary emergency waivers — an approach the coalition says creates uncertainty for retailers and consumers and slows market growth. ACE CEO Brian Jennings said Congress must remove outdated regulatory barriers to expand consumer choice, enhance energy security, and support rural economic growth.
Securing permanent year-round E15 remains ACE’s top policy priority. Absent congressional action, the issue will take center stage during ACE’s annual Fly-In to Washington, D.C., on March 17–18, when members plan to press lawmakers directly for swift passage of a legislative solution.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Mexico opens antidumping probe into U.S. apple imports
Economy Ministry cites evidence of price discrimination and material injury to domestic growers amid rising U.S. shipments
Mexico’s Ministry of Economy has formally launched an antidumping investigation into apple imports from the United States, following a petition from the Regional Agricultural Union of Fruit Growers of the State of Chihuahua (UNIFRUT).
In a resolution, the Ministry of Economy said it accepted UNIFRUT’s request to examine whether U.S. apples — classified under tariff item 0808.10.01 — are being sold in Mexico at unfairly low prices, harming domestic producers. The probe applies to the product regardless of country of origin but focuses overwhelmingly on U.S. shipments.
UNIFRUT, which represents 85.2% of Mexico’s national apple production, argued that rising volumes of lower-priced U.S. imports have suppressed domestic prices and caused material injury to Mexican growers. The investigation period runs from April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025, with a broader damage analysis covering April 1, 2022, to March 31, 2025.
Preliminary findings by the ministry indicate sufficient evidence of price discrimination and harm. During the investigation period, U.S. apples accounted for 97.5% of total imports, with volumes up 9% over the period and 30% over the full analysis window. Authorities found that the influx of U.S. supply pushed national apple prices down 14% during the investigation period.
The resolution also points to a sharp deterioration in the domestic industry’s financial performance. Revenue from internal market sales fell 9.9% during the investigation period, operating results turned negative, and operating margins reached a loss of 13.8%. The ministry said domestic sales prices failed to cover total unit costs, preventing producers from earning profits.
Under the decree published in Mexico’s Federal Official Gazette, the government will notify known importers and exporters, as well as the U.S. government. Interested parties have 23 business days to establish legal standing and submit arguments and evidence as the case proceeds.
—Italy pushes to tighten import safeguards in Mercosur deal talks
Rome seeks lower trigger for suspending Latin American farm imports ahead of pivotal EU vote
Italy is pressing for tougher safeguards in the European Union’s planned trade agreement with Mercosur, a move that could prove decisive as EU member states prepare to weigh in on the pact.
In an interview with Italian financial daily Il Sole 24 Ore, Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida said Rome wants to lower the threshold that would trigger safeguard clauses suspending imports. Italy is pushing to cut the proposed trigger to 5% from 8%, both in terms of import surges from Latin America and declines in European agricultural prices.
Under the mechanism, the agreement could be suspended if imports exceed the threshold or if EU farm prices fall by more than the same margin. “We want this 8% threshold to be lowered to 5%, and we believe there are the conditions to achieve this result,” Lollobrigida said.
Beyond volumes and prices, Italy has also focused on food-safety reciprocity, seeking assurances that agricultural products imported into the EU would meet the same standards required of European producers. Lollobrigida said Rome has received initial guarantees and is now conducting final technical and political checks.
“We’re down to the last mile,” he said, noting that EU governments will assess progress at a meeting of member-state representatives, known as Coreper, scheduled for Friday.
| CHINA |
—Carney to make first Canadian PM visit to China in nearly a decade
Trip underscores Ottawa’s push to diversify trade ties amid U.S. uncertainty and strained relations with Beijing
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to China from Jan. 13–17, his office said Wednesday, marking the first visit by a Canadian prime minister since 2017 and a significant step in efforts to stabilize and expand bilateral ties.
The visit comes as Carney seeks to diversify Canada’s export markets away from heavy reliance on the United States, amid uncertainty over trade policy under President Donald Trump. China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, and Carney’s office said the trip will focus on expanding engagement in trade, energy, agriculture, and international security.
Relations between Ottawa and Beijing have been strained in recent years. In August, China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports, a move that followed Canada’s imposition of a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicle imports a year earlier. The dispute has weighed heavily on Canadian farmers and oilseed exporters.
Carney agreed to the visit after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea in October. He has previously emphasized the need to restart broader engagement after years of deteriorating ties. Canada’s agriculture minister said in November that his own weeklong trip to China signaled a thaw in relations — an outcome Canadian producers see as increasingly urgent.
| CONGRESS |
— Bipartisan moderates push fiscal commission as debt tops $38 trillion
Problem Solvers Caucus backs legislation to create a deficit-fighting panel, urging Budget Committee action amid rising fiscal pressures
A bipartisan group of House moderates is calling for the creation of a fiscal commission to tackle the nation’s $38 trillion debt, according to a new framework shared with Bloomberg Government on Wednesday.
The proposal comes from the Problem Solvers Caucus, which is urging the House Budget Committee to mark up two bills it views as pathways to action: the Fiscal Commission Act (HR 3289) and the Sustainable Budget Act (HR 222). The framework was developed by the caucus’ Budget, Tax, Appropriations, Debt and Deficit Working Group, co-led by Democratic Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) and Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.).
While the authors acknowledge the plan faces long odds in a polarized Congress, the framework outlines how centrist lawmakers believe Washington should confront a rapidly expanding debt burden. The effort is also expected to feature prominently in messaging from vulnerable House incumbents seeking to demonstrate bipartisan engagement on fiscal responsibility.
—Democrats draw a line: ObamaCare subsidy renewal must come first in 2026 tax talks
Staff for top tax writers say ACA deal is the gatekeeper for extenders, crypto rules, and other bipartisan tax measures
Democratic lawmakers are signaling that renewal of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA/ObamaCare) subsidies will be a precondition for moving any other bipartisan tax legislation this year, according to senior staff for the ranking members of Congress’s tax-writing committees.
Speaking at the 2026 DC Bar Tax Conference, Andrew Grossman — chief tax counsel to House Ways & Means Committee ranking member Richard Neal (D-Mass.) — said Democrats are unlikely to allow tax extenders or business-focused tax changes to advance ahead of health-care priorities in upcoming funding bills.
“A deal on health care is going to have to unlock before there’s a meaningful tax vehicle,” Grossman said.
That stance was echoed by Sarah Schaefer, chief tax adviser to Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who noted that once an ACA agreement is reached, it could serve as a legislative vehicle for additional tax provisions — particularly in the Senate.
“Our caucus will certainly hold out for that,” Schaefer said. “Congress loves a revenue vehicle, so you never know.”
ACA expiration raises stakes. The comments come amid heightened urgency following the expiration last week of the enhanced premium tax credit, a pandemic-era subsidy that helped millions afford health insurance. Its lapse has already driven up premiums and previously contributed to the longest U.S. government shutdown on record last year.
A bipartisan majority in the House is forcing a floor vote Thursday on a three-year extension of the enhanced subsidy. Meanwhile, senators from both parties are discussing a narrower, two-year extension, potentially including income caps, that could be unveiled as soon as next week.
GOP sees openings — but after healthcare. Republican staff on the panel outlined several areas of potential bipartisan tax action—once the ACA issue is resolved. These include:
• Cryptocurrency taxation: Sean Clerget, chief tax counsel to House Ways & Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), said there is strong interest in clarifying tax rules for digital assets.
• Taiwan-related tax benefits: Proposals to create treaty-like tax treatment for firms operating in Taiwan.
• Tax administration reforms: Bipartisan House bills improving IRS procedures and U.S. Tax Court due process are already awaiting Senate action.
Senate Finance Committee staff are also preparing an updated tax administration package, according to Randy Herndon, deputy chief tax counsel to Chair Mike Crapo (R-Id.), who said a revised draft could be released “soon.”
Technical fixes loom. Republicans are also seeking changes to their 2025 tax law — such as restoring the deduction for gambling losses — which would likely require Democratic support. In parallel, the Joint Committee on Taxation may soon propose technical corrections in its next explanatory “blue book,” though publication timing remains uncertain.
Bottom Line: Democrats are making clear that healthcare subsidies are the key that unlocks the 2026 tax agenda. Until an ACA deal is struck, extenders, crypto tax rules, and other bipartisan tax priorities are likely to remain stalled.
| INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS |
—Trump orders U.S. exit from dozens of international bodies
Sweeping withdrawal reflects an “America First” foreign policy that rejects multilateral institutions in favor of unilateral power, drawing concern about ceding global influence to rivals
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Wednesday withdrawing the U.S. from dozens of international organizations tied to global cooperation on security, trade, law, energy, and human rights. Many of the bodies are affiliated with the United Nations, marking one of the broadest U.S. pullbacks from multilateral institutions in modern history.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the move, citing waste, mismanagement, redundancy, and what he described as ideological bias within the organizations, particularly on climate change and gender equality. Rubio argued that the diplomatic influence gained from U.S. participation no longer justified the financial and political costs, saying Americans were getting “little to nothing to show for it.”
The order withdraws the U.S. from forums that include the Global Counterterrorism Forum, the International Energy Forum, the International Renewable Energy Agency, and several UN-linked commissions on international law, peacebuilding, and arms transparency. China and Russia remain active participants in many of these bodies, raising concerns among critics that U.S. withdrawal could create openings for rivals to shape global rules and norms.
The decision reinforces a broader Trump administration approach that prioritizes projecting American power over coalition-building. It also builds on earlier exits from major institutions such as World Health Organization, UNESCO, and the UN Human Rights Council. The United Nations did not immediately comment on the latest withdrawals.
| TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS |
— STB moves to repeal decades-old rail competition rules
Proposal would scrap Part 1144 regulations and restore case-by-case authority to expand competitive rail access for shippers
The Surface Transportation Board (STB) on Wednesday unanimously proposed repealing 49 C.F.R. Part 1144, a long-standing set of regulations governing reciprocal switching, through routes, and through rates in the freight rail industry. The move, issued as a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM), is framed as a pro-competitive, deregulatory step aimed at removing barriers that limit shipping options for manufacturers, utilities, agricultural companies, and other rail-dependent businesses.
Part 1144 dates back to 1985 and has been interpreted to require shippers to prove anticompetitive conduct before the Board could order competitive access remedies. According to the STB, those rules narrowed the agency’s discretion beyond what Congress intended under the Staggers Rail Act and related statutes. Notably, despite having authority for more than four decades, the Board has never issued a competitive access prescription under Part 1144.
Under the proposal, the STB would repeal the regulations entirely and instead rely directly on its statutory authorities — allowing reciprocal switching when practicable and in the public interest, and prescribing through routes and rates when desirable in the public interest. The Board argues this would better align with congressional intent and allow competitive access disputes to be evaluated on their individual merits, considering a carrier’s operations, market conditions, and broader supply-chain impacts.
The NPRM follows the Justice Department’s March 2025 launch of an Anticompetitive Regulations Task Force under Executive Order 14192, which calls on federal agencies to reduce unnecessary regulatory burdens. Rail shipper groups representing chemical, agricultural, energy, and other industries urged the STB to act, citing limited transportation alternatives and constrained competition.
STB Chairman Patrick J. Fuchs said the proposal would “embrace market forces,” expand meaningful choice for shippers, and remove regulatory barriers that have unnecessarily stifled rail competition, while supporting innovation, economic growth, and supply-chain resilience.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Impactful snow for southeastern Colorado into New Mexico Thursday night into Friday. Chances for impactful snow for Upper Midwest into Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday… …Flash flooding and severe weather threat across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Friday… …Record warmth for much of the Southeast to Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday.
