E15 Announcement Likely Today; RFS Announcements Later This Week
Rollins comments on fertilizer action ahead; Congress works on legislative package
| LINKS |
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 25, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— EPA to roll out early E15 summer waiver — signaling proactive supply move and continued reliance on emergency authority ahead of pending RFS decisions
— Rollins points to imminent RFS Set 2 announcement — administration moving “at warp speed” with White House ag event as potential rollout window
— Trump administration explores fertilizer relief — weighing emergency suspension of Morocco phosphate duties and other trade tools to ease war-driven price spikes
— GOP lawmakers assemble fertilizer package — Marshall-led effort consolidates bills as global supply shocks and export restrictions tighten markets
— Gasoline nears $4 threshold — rapid price surge from Hormuz disruption begins to hit consumer sentiment and spending behavior
— USDA food price outlook due — egg and beef forecasts in focus as avian flu risks re-emerge
— Iran war update — U.S. peace proposal meets Iranian resistance as troop deployments rise and shipping risks persist
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Global equities rebound on ceasefire hopes — risk sentiment improves despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty
—U.S. import, export prices rise the most since 2022 — Fuel and lubricant import prices climbed 3.8% after falling 1.2% in January, led by a 2.5 % rise in petroleum products and a 24.7% jump in natural gas.
— Fed’s Barr signals rates on hold — policymakers await clearer inflation progress amid tariff-driven risks
AG MARKETS
— Mixed grain trade — corn and wheat firm while soybeans lag under South American pressure
— Livestock strength continues — cattle rally on tight supplies and strong boxed beef values
— Biofuels underpin oilseed markets — soybean oil supported by expected RFS-driven demand
— Iran war reshaping ag complex — energy, fertilizer, and grain markets increasingly linked via biofuel economics
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil drops on ceasefire optimism — prices fall sharply despite ongoing strikes and structural supply tightness
— Oil rebounds on supply risks — persistent disruptions and infrastructure damage shift outlook toward deficits
TRADE POLICY
— U.S. notifies WTO of Section 122 tariffs — confirms 10% temporary tariff with ag and fertilizer exemptions unchanged
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Stitt appoints Armstrong to Senate — pro-energy pick fills Oklahoma vacancy ahead of competitive special election
WEATHER
— Heat expands across central U.S. — severe storms and mixed precipitation risks add volatility to early-season outlook
TOP STORIES— Zeldin to unveil early E15 summer waiver at CERAWeek; likely today EPA move signals continued reliance on emergency authority to expand ethanol blends, while sidestepping pending RFS Set 2 decisions EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin will announce at CERAWeek (reportedly today) that the agency will issue an emergency waiver allowing the sale of E15 gasoline during the summer driving season, continuing a now-familiar policy approach aimed at boosting fuel supply and lowering prices, according to an EPA advisory. Under the plan, the initial waiver will take effect May 1 and run for 20 days, with EPA expected to extend it in successive 20-day increments through the peak summer period. The early May start is designed to give fuel wholesalers and retailers additional time to prepare for the June 1–Sept. 15 window when higher-volatility fuel restrictions typically limit E15 sales. The timing marks a shift from prior years, when EPA has generally issued such waivers in late April. By moving earlier, the agency is signaling a more proactive effort to ensure supply readiness and avoid disruptions as refiners transition to summer-grade gasoline. The waiver continues a trend of repeated emergency actions to allow nationwide E15 access during summer months — a policy strongly backed by the ethanol industry and many farm-state lawmakers, but criticized by some refiners and environmental groups as a workaround to unresolved regulatory constraints. EPA emphasized that the action is separate from its forthcoming Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) “Set 2” rule, which remains under interagency review. That rule is expected to set blending volumes for 2026 and 2027 and address key issues including biofuel import treatment and small refinery exemptions. Reuters reported that the Trump administration will release biofuel quotas 2026/27 this week, sometime before Friday’s farm event at the White House. The key is not the actual timing of the announcement, but details of what is decided. The Reuters report said the coming announcement was not materially changed from the proposed levels.  The early waiver announcement underscores the administration’s effort to balance near-term fuel supply concerns with longer-term biofuel policy decisions still pending. —Rollins signals RFS action coming USDA chief points to “warp speed” progress as administration eyes announcement window and broader farm policy moves USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration is moving “at warp speed” on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Set 2 rule, heightening expectations that a formal announcement could come as soon as Friday’s White House agriculture event. (As noted, Reuters said the news would come before the White House confab.) In an interview with Bloomberg, Rollins emphasized that the administration has prioritized agriculture in its ongoing policy push, stating that officials have been in “a lot of meetings ensuring that our agriculture community is frankly put first,” adding that “farm security is national security.” She underscored that President Donald Trump has remained firmly committed to that approach. Rollins indicated confidence that the long-awaited RFS rule — currently under review at the Office of Management and Budget — is nearing completion. “We feel very good” about its release timeline, she said, suggesting that “the big celebration on Friday could be a great place” to outline next steps on biofuels policy. Her comments point to a potential alignment between the rule’s release and the White House event or at least near the event, signaling a coordinated rollout of a key pillar of the administration’s energy and agriculture agenda. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin has separately maintained that the rule will be finalized “by the end of the month,” a timeline the agency has also committed to in court filings. Rollins also flagged parallel administration efforts to address fertilizer prices, reinforcing a broader policy focus on input costs and farm profitability alongside biofuels demand. (See next item for more on fertilizer.) Taken together, the remarks suggest the administration is preparing to pair RFS policy clarity with a wider agriculture messaging push — with Friday’s event emerging as a likely focal point. —Trump administration eyes fertilizer relief options amid price surgeRollins signals potential emergency actions — including comments on Morocco phosphate duties — as war-driven supply pressures mount USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Tuesday the Trump administration is actively evaluating options to ease rising fertilizer costs following supply disruptions tied to the Middle East war, with particular attention on trade policy tools that could quickly increase imports. Speaking to Bloomberg, Rollins pointed to countervailing duties (CVDs) on phosphate fertilizer from Morocco as a potential pressure point, suggesting that revisiting those restrictions “could be really important” in reducing cost burdens for U.S. farmers. She added the administration is exploring broader measures beyond Morocco to “lessen the stress” on the agricultural sector. While CVDs cannot be removed unilaterally through standard administrative action, the president does have authority to issue an emergency declaration temporarily suspending duties. That pathway was used in 2022 by the Biden administration (link) to allow tariff-free imports of certain solar cells and modules from Southeast Asia for a 24-month period — a precedent that could be replicated for fertilizer markets if conditions worsen. Link to Federal Register notice on review. The duties on Moroccan phosphate imports have been in place since 2021, and the issue is already under formal review. The Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration launched a five-year “sunset review” on March 2, with stakeholder comments due by April 1. A final post-review decision is not expected until late summer, early fall. Of note: About 80% of US farmers already purchased their fertilizer in preparation for the spring planting season, Rollins told Fox Business this morning. “There shouldn’t be much disruption for the 20% that have yet to buy their fertilizer,” she added, when asked about the effects of the Iran war on commodities prices. The Trump administration is also looking at other countries to buy fertilizer from “but, again, it shouldn’t be too disruptive.” Rollins’ comments underscore growing concern within the administration over fertilizer affordability as global supply chains tighten — and signal that trade relief, rather than direct subsidies, could emerge as a near-term policy lever. —GOP senators assemble fertilizer relief package as supply shocks mountMarshall effort aims to consolidate legislation amid war-driven price spikes, export restrictions, and scrutiny of market dynamics Republican senators are coalescing around a legislative package led by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) to address surging fertilizer prices, as global supply disruptions tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to ripple through agricultural markets. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said Marshall is working to bundle multiple fertilizer-related bills into a single package, signaling growing urgency within the GOP conference to respond to input cost pressures facing farmers. Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) also voiced support, though he cautioned that securing bipartisan backing could prove difficult in the current political environment. The push comes as lawmakers from both parties have introduced targeted measures in recent days. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) unveiled the Fertilizer Transparency Act of 2026 to improve price discovery, while Klobuchar and Marshall also introduced the Homegrown Fertilizer Act to expand domestic production and storage capacity through grants and loans. Meanwhile, some Republicans are pressing for more aggressive enforcement actions. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) argued that “astronomical” fertilizer price increases may reflect price-gouging rather than solely geopolitical disruptions, calling on the Department of Justice to investigate potential price-fixing. Meanwhile, Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) said Senate Agriculture Committee members are continuing discussions with the administration — including the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative — on tariffs affecting phosphate and other fertilizer inputs. Global supply constraints are compounding the policy debate. Russia’s decision to suspend ammonium nitrate exports for roughly a month — following similar moves by China — is expected to tighten global nitrogen markets. Industry economists say the impact will be uneven: while reduced exports will support higher global prices, the direct effect on U.S. farmers may be more limited given lower domestic reliance on ammonium nitrate imports. Still, analysts emphasize that any removal of nitrogen supply adds upward pressure across interconnected fertilizer markets. The larger driver remains the disruption of Middle East trade flows, with the Strait of Hormuz closure continuing to overshadow other supply shocks and anchor fertilizer prices at elevated levels. —Gas nears a new political and consumer pain thresholdAAA’s national average reached $3.977 a gallon on March 24, just shy of $4, as the Iran war’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz drives one of the sharpest fuel-price runups in decades and begins to squeeze household spending Average U.S. gasoline prices hit $3.98 per gallon Tuesday, according to AAA, the highest national average since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy shock and up sharply from $2.95 a month ago. The increase tracks the market fallout from the Iran war and the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. That makes the current move notable not just for its size, but for its speed. Reuters has reported that gasoline prices have climbed roughly 30% since the conflict began, with the national average moving from $3.54 on March 10 to $3.91 on March 20 and now to $3.977 on March 24. AAA’s own 2022 survey found that 59% of Americans said they would change their driving habits or lifestyle if gas reached $4 a gallon, underscoring why the current level matters psychologically as well as economically. The consumer strain is already showing up in polling. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 55% of Americans said higher gasoline prices were hurting their household finances, with 21% saying the impact was significant. Another Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday found cost-of-living dissatisfaction worsening as fuel prices climbed, reinforcing that pump prices are becoming a broader political and economic pressure point. The picture is not uniformly bleak. Reuters also noted that gasoline and energy make up only about 2% of total U.S. consumer spending, near a record low, and that household balance sheets remain stronger than in past oil shocks. But that national average masks a much heavier burden on lower-income households, where energy can consume a far larger share of disposable income. In other words, $4 gasoline may not break the U.S. consumer overall, but it can still meaningfully crimp discretionary spending at the margin — especially for commuters, rural households, and lower-income families. That is why the $4 mark matters. It is less a hard ceiling than a behavioral trigger: the point where more households start consolidating trips, delaying purchases, and rethinking travel and other discretionary spending. If crude remains elevated and the Hormuz disruption persists, the pressure is likely to broaden from the pump into retail demand, inflation expectations, and the wider political debate over the economic costs of the war. —USDA food price outlook due today as markets watch egg, beef signalsFebruary inflation data to shape updated forecasts, with avian flu risks and protein prices in focus USDA is set to release its latest monthly Food Price Outlook today at 9 a.m. ET, incorporating February inflation data and offering an updated view on food price trends heading into spring. In its February report, USDA raised its projections for both overall food and grocery price inflation. All-food prices were expected to rise slightly above the 20-year average, while grocery price increases were forecast just below that benchmark. Restaurant prices were revised lower but still projected to climb faster than their long-term average. Today’s update will not yet reflect any inflationary pressures tied to the Middle East conflict, keeping the focus squarely on domestic supply-and-demand dynamics. Within grocery categories, particular attention will center on beef and egg price forecasts. Eggs stood out in the February outlook as the only major grocery item expected to decline in 2026, driven by recovery in layer flocks following highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks. However, renewed HPAI detections in egg-laying flocks across multiple states could complicate that trajectory. USDA is expected to flag these developments as a potential upside risk to egg prices in the months ahead, underscoring continued volatility in one of the most closely watched food categories. —Iran War Update • The U.S. has delivered a 15-point peace framework to Iran covering sanctions relief, civilian nuclear cooperation, nuclear rollbacks, missile limits and guaranteed transit through the Strait of Hormuz — the White House is now awaiting Tehran’s response, with President Trump saying Iran “wants to make a deal.” •Tehran is publicly downplaying diplomacy, signaling little willingness to compromise and arguing Washington is effectively “negotiating with itself.” •The Pentagon is preparing to deploy roughly 2,000 additional troops to the Middle East, adding to about 5,000 already slated for near-term deployment as force posture ramps up. •Iran continued overnight strikes targeting Israel and Arab Gulf states, though early reports indicate limited or no casualties. •U.S. and allied officials warn Iran’s longer-range, harder-to-intercept missile systems are increasing battlefield pressure and complicating regional air defenses. • India is facing mounting pressure as BRICS chair to push the bloc toward a more unified — and potentially critical — stance on the conflict. • Markets are reacting to diplomatic signals — global equities are rebounding while crude oil prices ease on optimism around a potential ceasefire framework. •Shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains elevated despite diplomacy, with insurers and naval forces on alert for renewed disruption to roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. •U.S. officials are weighing additional maritime security measures, including expanded naval escorts for commercial tankers transiting the Gulf. • Gulf energy infrastructure remains on high alert as intermittent attacks and near-miss incidents continue to underscore vulnerability across key export hubs. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets pushed higher on reports that the U.S. is pursuing a month-long ceasefire in its conflict with Iran, fueling optimism that a diplomatic breakthrough could reopen Gulf oil flows. U.S. stock futures are showing strong gains after Wall Street ended the previous session lower, as investors cautiously rotated back into risk assets.
In Asia, Japan +2.9%. Hong Kong +1.1%. China +1.3%. India +1.6%.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.2%. Paris +1.5%. Frankfurt +1.5%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price March 24 | Point Difference from March 23 | % Difference from March 23 |
| Dow | 46,124.06 | – 84.41 | -0.18% |
| Nasdaq | 21,761.89 | -184.87 | -0.84% |
| S&P 500 | 6,556.37 | -24.63 | -0.37% |
—U.S. import, export prices rise the most since 2022
U.S. import prices rose 1.3% in February, the most since March 2022 and more than expectations of 0.5%. Fuel and lubricant import prices climbed 3.8%.
Meanwhile, export prices jumped 1.5%, far outpacing forecasts of 0.5% and also the sharpest increase since May 2022.
Fuel and lubricant import prices climbed 3.8% after falling 1.2% in January, led by a 2.5 % rise in petroleum products and a 24.7% jump in natural gas.
—Fed governor Barr signals extended hold on rates as inflation risks persist
Barr underscores need for sustained disinflation before considering cuts, with tariffs still clouding outlook
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr indicated Tuesday that U.S. interest rates may need to remain unchanged for an extended period as policymakers wait for clearer evidence that inflation is moving durably back toward the Fed’s 2% target.
Speaking in prepared remarks in Phoenix, Barr said that while tariff-related price pressures could begin to ease later this year, the Fed is not yet confident that inflation — across both goods and services — is on a sustained downward path.
• Barr emphasized he wants to see “clear evidence” that inflation is steadily retreating before supporting any rate cuts.
• He pointed to tariffs as a key source of lingering price pressure, reinforcing concerns that inflation could remain elevated in the near term.
• The Fed’s stance remains conditional on labor market stability, with Barr signaling that solid employment conditions give policymakers room to hold rates higher for longer.
• The comments align with a broader “wait-and-see” approach across the Fed, particularly as policymakers weigh tariff-driven inflation against moderating economic growth.
The remarks reinforce expectations that the central bank is unlikely to move quickly toward easing, especially as trade policy continues to inject uncertainty into the inflation outlook — a dynamic increasingly central to the Fed’s policy calculus.
| AG MARKETS |
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price (March 24 | Change from March 23 |
| Corn | May | $4.625 | +0.03 |
| Soybeans | May | $11.55 | -0.085 |
| Soybean Meal | May | $322.40 | -4.20 |
| Soybean Oil | May | 65.73 | +0.15 |
| SRW Wheat | May | $5.90 | +0.0225 |
| HRW Wheat | May | $6.04 | +0.0075 |
| Spring Wheat | May | $6.3125 | +0.0425 |
| Cotton | May | 67.62 | +0.44 |
| Live Cattle | April | $235.375 | +0.075 |
| Feeder Cattle | May | $350.70 | +2.35 |
| Lean Hogs | April | $91.05 | +0.25 |
—MARKET OVERVIEW (This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.)
Grain markets closed Tuesday with a split verdict that underscored the tug-of-war playing out across the commodity complex. Corn and wheat managed modest gains, closing near their session highs as markets showed resilience despite earlier pressure from crude oil’s retreat following President Trump’s announcement of a 5-day pause in U.S. military strikes against Iran. Soybeans, however, bucked that relative firmness, closing lower near the session lows as South American harvest pressure and weak soybean meal weighed on the complex. Soybean oil managed to hold gains, finishing in mid-range on biofuels demand support.
Livestock markets put in a notably bullish session. Live cattle and feeder cattle both hit three-week highs in early trade, supported by a sharp jump in choice boxed beef values and improving packer margins. Lean hogs also finished higher near session highs, though they had earlier touched a nine-week low — a sign of continued technical vulnerability in that market.
The broad backdrop remains dominated by the 2026 Iran War and its cascading effects on energy, fertilizer, and grain markets — with diplomacy and the approaching month-end USDA reports adding layers of uncertainty.
—CORN: May corn futures rose 3 cents to $4.62½, settling near the daily high — a constructive close given the volatile backdrop of the Iran diplomatic pause. The market showed resilience, recovering from earlier weakness tied to crude oil’s pullback when President Trump announced a 5-day pause in military strikes against Iran. Corn’s ability to finish near the highs suggests underlying demand fundamentals are providing a floor.
And those fundamentals remain solid. Weekly export inspections continue to run well above year-ago levels and ahead of the pace needed to hit USDA’s current export target of 3.3 billion bushels — a number that is already 442 million bushels above last year’s record. Private export sales to Mexico were reported earlier this week, providing additional demand confirmation.
That said, the speculative position in corn has grown very large. As of mid-March, the managed money net long in corn futures surpassed 230,000 contracts — over 1.15 billion bushels — the largest such position since February 2025. This leaves corn vulnerable to sharp, profit-taking selloffs on any shift in the geopolitical narrative or broader market sentiment.
Planting acreage is a critical variable for the weeks ahead. Multiple advisory firms have cut their 2026 corn acreage forecasts to the 93.7–94.4-million-acre range, down from 98.8 million acres in 2025, citing higher input costs and a corn-to-soybean price ratio that increasingly favors beans. Urea fertilizer prices have surged more than 70% since December 2025, in part due to the Strait of Hormuz disruption cutting Persian Gulf fertilizer exports.
—SOYBEANS: May soybeans fell 8½ cents to $11.55, settling near the daily low — a weak close that stands in contrast to the relative firmness in corn and wheat. The pressure came from multiple directions: a bearish soybean meal market, ongoing South American harvest progress, and lingering concerns about the pace of U.S. export sales to China.
Soybean futures had been on an extraordinary run earlier in March, reaching a 21-month high near $12.39 on March 12 before retreating sharply in the mid-March selloff. Tuesday’s close keeps May beans in the lower half of this month’s range, and the failure to participate in corn’s and wheat’s session-high closes is technically concerning.
The soy complex continues to be pulled in opposite directions. On the bearish side, Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean crop is now roughly 67.5% harvested, running behind last year’s pace but pressing toward a large final number. China has dramatically shifted its sourcing toward Brazil, with Brazilian soybean imports to China up 80% over the first two months of 2026 while U.S. shipments lag well behind USDA targets. New Chinese phytosanitary controls on Brazilian soybeans have introduced a wildcard that traders are monitoring closely.
On the bullish side, expectations for higher U.S. Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) remain a significant price support for soybean oil — and by extension soybeans. The managed money net long in soybean oil futures was nearly 120,000 contracts as of mid-March, the largest since 2016.
Argentina’s soybean crop condition improved modestly, but quality concerns persist with only 38% of the crop rated good-to-excellent.
—SOYBEAN MEAL: May soybean meal fell $4.20 to $322.40, settling near the daily low and serving as a significant drag on the broader soy complex. The weakness in meal reflects ample global protein meal supply expectations from the large South American harvest now in its advanced stages. The $322–$328 range that had provided some stability in recent sessions is being tested. With Brazil’s soybean harvest past the halfway point and Argentina’s crop rated only 38% good-to-excellent, traders are weighing domestic crush margin support against the prospect of growing Southern Hemisphere meal competition. Daily chart trends remain nominally up, with technical support in the $307–$309 zone and resistance in the $332–$339 range.
—SOYBEAN OIL: May soybean oil rose 15 points to 65.73¢/lb, settling near mid-range. The fact that soybean oil managed a gain on a day when soybeans and soybean meal both closed lower is notable — it signals that the biofuels demand story is providing independent support decoupled from the broader soy fundamentals. The managed money net long in soyoil is near a decade-high, and traders are awaiting the anticipated White House biofuels policy announcement. Even as crude oil softened Tuesday, soybean oil held firm — a sign the market believes the structural demand story for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel feedstock remains durable. Friday’s RVO announcement (or lack thereof) will be the next major test for this market.
—WHEAT: All three classes of wheat settled higher Tuesday. May Chicago SRW gained 2¼ cents to $5.90, near the session high. May KC HRW added ¾ cent to $6.04, though it settled nearer the session low — suggesting some intraday selling pressure returned. May Minneapolis spring wheat was the best performer, rising 4¼ cents to $6.31¼.
Wheat’s ability to finish in positive territory despite the geopolitical uncertainty suggests the market is finding some footing after the brutal pullback from the March 9 high of $6.4175 for SRW. The improved moisture forecasts for the Plains and Midwest in the 6-to-14-day outlook had been a significant headwind recently, but the deteriorating Kansas crop ratings are providing a countervailing support. Kansas winter wheat crop ratings continued to slip, with the good-to-excellent share now at 46%, down from 52% a week earlier and 56% two weeks prior.
Some states released winter wheat crop condition ratings on
Monday afternoon. The portion of crop rated good/excellent stood at 46% in
Kansas (down 16 points from the end of November), 14% in Oklahoma (down 26 points), 16% in Texas (down 10 points) and 24% in Colorado (down 45 points). Montana and South Dakota didn’t release weekly crop ratings.
USDA’s first national crop condition ratings of the spring are scheduled to be released April 6. Based on the state level reports, there will be a notable decline from the 48% good/excellent rating ahead of dormancy.
Poor winter wheat crop ratings at the beginning of spring don’t guarantee yields will be sub-par, though timely rains would be needed during spring.
As of March 17, USDA estimated 55% of winter wheat was affected by drought. Drought impacted 41% of corn area, 42% of soybeans, 21% of
spring wheat and 89% of cotton.
On the global side, the International Grains Council projects 2025-26 world wheat production near 31 billion bushels, with global use around 30.3 billion — a comfortable balance that limits the structural upside. Algeria’s recent purchase of 1.8 million bushels, likely from the Black Sea region, is a reminder that U.S. wheat competes against cheaper origins. France’s carryout into 2026-27 is expected near 102.9 million bushels. The looming USDA Prospective Plantings report is also a factor — analyst estimates call for a modest decline in 2026 wheat plantings to the 44.1–44.9-million-acre range, potentially providing some longer-term price support on tighter projected supplies.
—COTTON: May cotton rose 44 points to 67.62¢/lb, settling near the session high — the strongest close in the complex on Tuesday. The gain came despite crude oil’s sharp selloff following Trump’s 5-day Iran strike pause, suggesting cotton is drawing support from factors beyond the energy-driven geopolitical trade that has dominated the ag commodity complex in recent weeks.
The primary driver of Tuesday’s firmness was the ongoing threat of hot, dry weather across the primary U.S. Cotton Belt, stretching from Texas westward. The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and western Kansas continue to report dry, hot conditions raising wildfire risk, and soil moisture levels across much of the Southwest cotton region are very short to short heading into the critical planting season. Nebraska has already suffered wildfire losses of several hundred thousand acres. Texas, which typically produces more than half of the nation’s crop, is entering the planting season under La Niña-influenced drought conditions that contrast sharply with last year’s favorable growing weather. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economists have warned that dryness could persist into key planting windows across the state’s staggered cotton calendar, raising the likelihood of lower production and more volatile price swings later in the growing season.
The Iran war is also a cotton market factor, albeit indirectly. Much of the global demand for cotton originates from textile mills in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and the war has increased costs of production and complicated shipping logistics. Cotton’s production input costs — already elevated — have surged further due to the fertilizer price shock triggered by the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
The broad supply-demand picture for cotton remains one of the most challenging in the commodity complex. Global production for 2025-26 is estimated near 121 million bales while mill use is around 118.6 million — a modest surplus that has kept prices under structural pressure for much of the past two years. U.S. ending stocks for 2025-26 are projected at 4.5 million bales, and the season-average farm price has been mired in the low-to-mid 60s, near the bottom of the farm-level cost of production for many producers.
The domestic acreage picture reflects those difficult economics. U.S. producers plan to plant approximately 9.0 million acres of cotton in 2026, a 3.2% decline from 2025 and the smallest intended planting since 2015. The Midsouth region faces the steepest cuts. The NCC survey showed upland cotton intentions at 8.8 million acres, down 3.4% from last year. That said, any significant weather-driven production shortfall in Texas could quickly shift the supply calculus — the market exports 85–90% of U.S. cotton and responds swiftly to domestic production concerns.
Looking toward the new crop year, USDA’s preliminary 2026-27 projections point to lower global production of roughly 116 million bales against mill use of 120 million — a production deficit of about 4 million bales that, if realized, would begin drawing down the currently ample world ending stocks toward multi-year lows. December 2026 futures have been trading at a premium to old-crop May futures, reflecting the market’s awareness of this potential tightening. The Cotlook A Index was near 78.25¢/lb as of last week, with the nearby NY/ICE May contract trading between 64 and 67¢ — still well below the export-competitive A Index level. China’s Zhengzhou futures have risen about 12% since early December, partly in response to a government announcement of a coming structural change in Xinjiang cotton planting, adding a potential demand dimension to watch.
—LIVE CATTLE & FEEDER CATTLE: April live cattle rose $0.075 to $235.375/cwt, settling near mid-range after tagging a three-week high early in the session. May feeder cattle gained $2.35 to $350.70, settling near the daily high and logging a three-week high. The cattle complex put in a notably constructive day, with both contracts showing early upside momentum backed by fundamental support.
The key driver of Tuesday’s strength was a sharp jump in choice boxed beef values, which rose to $397.67/cwt — the highest level since mid-September. That surge in wholesale beef prices is improving packer margins significantly, which analysts believe will eventually motivate packers to bid more aggressively for live cattle in the cash market. Show lists were smaller in all regions Tuesday, not due to heavy slaughter but because packers purchased additional inventory last week anticipating improved margins this week.
The structural backdrop for cattle could hardly be more bullish. The U.S. cattle herd stood at just 86.2 million head on January 1 — the lowest level since the Truman administration, now in its seventh consecutive year of contraction. Beef production is projected to fall another 3.0–3.5% in 2026 to its lowest level since 2015. The closure of the Mexican border to feeder cattle imports due to New World Screwworm concerns removed approximately 1.2 million head annually from the U.S. feeding pipeline, adding to an already severe supply crunch.
For feeders, the lower corn prices have provided an additional tailwind — cheaper feed costs improve the projected return on feeder cattle placements. The CME feeder cattle index continues to trade at a significant premium to futures, with cash feeders near $361/cwt while the futures strip trades in the $350s — a structural support that has underpinned the contract.
Risks to the bullish cattle story include the Iran war’s dampening effect on consumer confidence and discretionary spending, and the ongoing question of whether consumers will continue absorbing retail beef prices above $9/lb. The war has also created uncertainty around the potential for a Trump/Xi summit (now pushed to mid-May or into the summer), which had been expected to include commitments on Chinese purchases of U.S. beef.
One analyst observes: “The cattle market is struggling to hold rallies. The feeder market has the March trading well under the index, with it expiring Thursday at noon. The market anticipation of feeder cash prices over the next two days will dominate.”
Another industry analyst notes: “Retailer beef demand has really slowed, with daily load counts below 100 on a regular basis. could signal consumers are balking at high prices… or retailers fear they will when they push through even higher values on supplies currently being purchased.”
—LEAN HOGS: April lean hogs rose $0.25 to $91.05/cwt, settling near the session high after tagging a nine-week low early in the day. The recovery from that morning low to a firm close is somewhat constructive technically, but the fact that the market reached a nine-week low intraday signals the underlying chart structure remains vulnerable.
The hog market has been under pressure from multiple fronts. The Iran war and the resulting uncertainty have weighed on overall consumer confidence and risk appetite, keeping a lid on what is seasonally a period that should begin to see better demand as the spring grilling season approaches. Reports out of China indicate the world’s leading pork consumer is currently flush with hogs — a bearish demand dynamic for potential U.S. pork export sales.
On the supportive side, hog supplies are expected to contract seasonally in the coming months, and the upcoming grilling season typically lifts pork prices. A potential Trump-Xi summit in May could yield commitments on Chinese pork purchases from the U.S. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price was near $69.73, while the CME lean hog index was recently at $92.04 — a modest premium to futures that provides some floor support.
The technical picture for April lean hogs remains challenged. After the nine-week low hit early Tuesday, the market will need to sustain closes above the $91–$92 range to avoid follow-through chart-based selling.
— THE BIG PICTURE: IRAN WAR AND THE ENERGY-GRAIN NEXUS
The defining macro force for agricultural markets in March 2026 has been the 2026 Iran War — the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began on Feb. 28 with “Operation Epic Fury.” The conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 60% of global tanker traffic, and triggered a surge in crude oil prices of more than 25% from pre-war levels. At the same time, Persian Gulf fertilizer exports — including key urea supplies from Qatar and Iran — plummeted, driving urea prices at New Orleans up over 70% from mid-December to early March.
This has created an unprecedented energy-grain price linkage. With crude oil at elevated levels, the economics of converting corn into ethanol and soybean oil into renewable diesel have become highly attractive, creating what analysts describe as a “biofuel floor” under grain prices. Managed money has amassed a 4-year high net long position across the grain complex, treating corn and wheat as inflation hedges amid stagflation fears.
Tuesday’s market action demonstrated the risk embedded in this dynamic: when Trump announced a 5-day pause in strikes and signaled diplomatic talks were possible, crude oil dropped and grain prices followed. Iran has denied any talks are underway, and the situation remains fluid. Iran has also reportedly laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz and struck oil infrastructure in Gulf states, raising the specter of prolonged supply disruptions even if a ceasefire is eventually reached.
—LOOKING AHEAD: WHAT’S IMPORTANT FOR THE DAYS AHEAD
1. White House “Celebration of Agriculture” — Fri., March 27
The RVO question moved from uncertainty to near certainty on Tuesday. Speaking at a National Ag Day event in Washington, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated on the record: “Before the end of this month, we will be releasing the new Renewable Volume Obligation numbers.” Zeldin called the missed November 2024 statutory deadline unacceptable and pledged it would not happen again. EPA has already submitted its RVO proposal to the White House Office of Management and Budget, with that submission including conventional renewable fuel volumes of 15 billion gallons for both 2026 and 2027. The Friday White House event on the South Lawn — with hundreds of farmers and ranchers invited — is the natural venue for a formal announcement. However, Reuters reported that the Trump administration will release biofuel quotas 2026/27 this week, sometime before Friday’s farm event at the White House.
The question has now fully shifted from whether to what. The critical variable is biomass-based diesel. A broad industry coalition including the American Petroleum Institute, National Oilseed Processors Association, Clean Fuels Alliance, and the American Soybean Association is pushing for 5.25 billion gallons. Rumors of a lower figure near 4.625 billion gallons have already demonstrated market sensitivity — on prior occasions such speculation briefly caused soybean basis to drop nearly 30%. The handling of small refinery exemptions granted over the 2023–2025 compliance years is a second key factor. A strong number at or above industry expectations would be a significant bullish catalyst for soybean oil, soybeans, and corn via ethanol. A below-expectations number could trigger sharp selling across the soy complex.
2. USDA Prospective Plantings & Grain Stocks Reports — Tue., March 31
This is the most important single day on the 2026 ag calendar. The Prospective Plantings report will reveal farmer planting intentions for corn, soybeans, and wheat — the first hard survey-based data of the season. Analyst estimates cluster around 93.7–94.4 million corn acres (down 4–5% from 2025), 85.7–86.1 million soybean acres (up ~5.5%), and 44.1–44.9 million wheat acres (down slightly). Any significant deviation from expectations could generate large price moves. The simultaneous Grain Stocks report will provide a snapshot of on-farm and commercial inventories as of March 1. With funds heavily long corn and soybeans, this combination of reports creates extraordinary risk for sharp moves in either direction.
3. Iran War Diplomacy
The geopolitical situation remains the wildcard above all others. Watch for any developments on the Strait of Hormuz, potential reopening of shipping lanes, and the durability of Trump’s stated 5-day pause. A credible ceasefire would likely deflate much of the current geopolitical risk premium in grains and crude oil; a resumption or escalation of hostilities would reassert energy-linked buying. The situation is also a key risk for livestock, as economic uncertainty tied to the war could erode consumer spending on beef and pork.
4. Cattle Cash Trade & Boxed Beef
With April live cattle at a premium to last week’s five-area average cash price of $235.08, there is optimism that cash cattle can trade higher this week. Monitor packer bids closely Wednesday and Thursday. If packers follow through and bid up for cattle after last week’s improved margins, it would be a near-term catalyst for live cattle futures. The choice boxed beef cutout at $397.67 needs to stay firm or continue higher to sustain packer willingness to pay up. The direction of the Choice-Select spread will signal demand quality trends.
5. China Soybean Demand & Trade Dynamics
The U.S./China summit that was expected in late March has been postponed due to the Iran conflict, now tentatively scheduled for May. China’s phytosanitary controls on Brazilian soybeans are a wildcard for U.S. export sales. Watch for daily USDA flash export sales reports and any diplomatic developments. A resumption of meaningful Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans would be a significant bullish catalyst.
6. Lean Hog Technical Situation
With April lean hogs having registered a nine-week low intraday Tuesday before recovering, the market faces a key technical test in the near term. Chart-based speculators will be watching whether the market can hold above the $91–$92 zone. Weekly export sales data Thursday will be scrutinized for any sign of improving foreign demand. Any progress on U.S./China trade talks or the grilling season demand signal will be watched closely.
7. U.S. Plains Wheat Weather
The latest 6-to-14-day forecasts call for improved precipitation across the winter wheat belt. Monitor incoming weather maps — any return of dry conditions would quickly re-ignite concerns about the deteriorating Kansas crop ratings, currently at only 46% good-to-excellent and declining weekly.
8. Cotton Weather & Acreage Outlook
With U.S. cotton planting season approaching, weather in the Texas Cotton Belt is the dominant near-term price catalyst. The Texas Panhandle and South Plains are entering the season dry, and any extension of the current drought into April and May planting windows would quickly ratchet up supply concerns and could push futures materially higher. Monitor weekly drought monitor updates for Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas closely. The USDA March 31 Prospective Plantings report will also provide the first official government estimate of 2026 cotton acres — analysts and the NCC survey both point to a figure near 9.0 million acres. A number meaningfully below that would be bullish for new-crop December futures. Also watch for any progress in the U.S./China trade relationship, as a revival of Chinese cotton import demand would be a significant positive catalyst for the market — Chinese ZCE futures have already rallied 12% since December, signaling potential tightening in that market.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Wednesday: Oil slides on ceasefire hopes despite ongoing strikes
U.S. 15-point proposal to Iran eases immediate supply fears, but market volatility persists amid historic disruptions
Oil prices dropped sharply Wednesday as reports of a U.S.-backed diplomatic push toward ending the Iran war injected optimism into markets, even as hostilities between Israel and Iran continued.
Crude falls on diplomacy signals: Brent crude sank more than 5% to about $98 per barrel, while WTI dropped over 5% to the high-$80s, reversing gains from the previous session as traders priced in a সম্ভ potential ceasefire.
Peace proposal shifts sentiment: The decline followed news the U.S. delivered a 15-point plan to Iran aimed at de-escalation, raising expectations of a quicker resolution timeline despite Tehran publicly downplaying negotiations.
Geopolitics still driving markets: Analysts stressed that oil price swings remain heavily tied to geopolitical developments rather than fundamentals, with the Middle East conflict continuing to dominate short-term direction.
Historic supply shock remains: The war has effectively halted flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG — marking what the International Energy Agency has called the largest supply disruption on record.
Massive supply losses accumulate: Disruptions are estimated at roughly 20 million barrels per day, implying a cumulative loss of about 500 million barrels after 25 days — tightening global balances even as ceasefire talks emerge.
Ceiling risks still high: Industry leaders warned that prolonged threats to Hormuz could push oil into a sustained $100–$150 range, with broader macro risks including a potential global recession if prices spike further.
Flows rerouting but fragile: Saudi Arabia has increased shipments via its Red Sea Yanbu port to offset some losses, while Iran signaled conditional passage for vessels coordinating with its authorities — though uncertainty remains over how durable any reopening would be.
New disruptions add pressure: Compounding risks, Ukrainian drone strikes forced temporary shutdowns at key Russian Baltic export terminals, adding another layer of instability to already strained global supply chains.
Bottom Line: While ceasefire hopes triggered a sharp pullback in oil, the market remains structurally tight and highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with any durable resolution still uncertain and supply risks firmly elevated.
—Tuesday: Oil rebounds as supply disruptions persist amid conflicting Iran signals
Markets shift toward deficit outlook as infrastructure damage and stalled diplomacy sustain volatility
Oil prices surged Tuesday as traders refocused on the durability of the largest global supply disruption in years, with diplomatic uncertainty and infrastructure damage reinforcing fears of prolonged tightness in crude markets.
Brent crude climbed $4.55, or 4.55%, to settle at $104.49 per barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $4.22, or 4.79%, to $92.35.
Disruption-driven rally: The rebound reflects continued concern that outages tied to the Iran conflict — particularly through the Strait of Hormuz — are not easing, keeping a significant portion of global oil flows offline.
Shift toward deficits: Market expectations are moving away from prior surplus forecasts, with traders increasingly pricing in the risk that short-term shipping disruptions evolve into sustained supply shortages.
Conflicting diplomacy signals: Iran’s denial of active negotiations with the U.S. — contradicting suggestions of a near-term deal — has injected further uncertainty, limiting confidence in any quick resolution.
Infrastructure damage adds pressure: Ongoing attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, including gas facilities and pipelines, are compounding supply risks and reinforcing the market’s bullish bias.
Volatility remains elevated: Diverging geopolitical narratives and unclear diplomatic progress continue to drive sharp price swings, keeping oil markets highly reactive to headlines.
| TRADE POLICY |
—U.S. formally notifies WTO of Section 122 tariffs
Filing confirms the 10% temporary surcharge runs through July 24 unless Congress acts, while reiterating carveouts for selected farm goods, natural resources, and fertilizer inputs
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has formally notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) that the United States is imposing a 10% tariff on imported goods under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a move that triggers WTO review procedures but does not alter the policy already in place. The tariff took effect on February 24 and is scheduled to expire on July 24, 2026 — 150 days later — unless Congress votes to extend it.
The WTO filing also underscores the same exemptions the administration already laid out when President Donald Trump invoked Section 122 after the Supreme Court curtailed the prior IEEPA tariff regime. Those exclusions include certain agricultural products such as beef, tomatoes, and oranges, along with natural resources and fertilizers that cannot be produced in the U.S. — or cannot be produced domestically in sufficient quantities to meet demand. In practical terms, the notification is procedural rather than substantive, signaling no new shift in tariff policy but offering another reminder of the administration’s temporary legal bridge while it pursues more durable trade actions under other authorities.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
— Stitt appoints energy executive Armstrong to fill Oklahoma Senate vacancy
Temporary replacement for DHS-bound Mullin signals pro-energy alignment and sets up competitive special election
Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) has appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong to temporarily fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who was confirmed Monday in a 54–45 vote to lead the Department of Homeland Security.
Announcing the decision at a Tuesday press conference, Stitt framed Armstrong as a business-minded conservative closely aligned with President Donald Trump’s energy agenda. He described Armstrong — a third-generation Oklahoman and former Williams Companies executive — as a “strong business leader” who supports free markets and limited government.
Stitt emphasized the public service nature of the role, noting Armstrong will step down from corporate board positions and other commitments to take the seat. Under Oklahoma law, the governor was required to appoint a Republican to fill the vacancy within 30 days of Mullin’s departure.
Armstrong’s tenure will be short-lived. State rules require him to pledge not to run for the seat in the upcoming special election, accelerating what is expected to be a competitive GOP primary. Candidate filing runs April 1–3, with the primary scheduled for June 16.
Early maneuvering is already underway. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) has launched a campaign, while Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.) has opted not to run.
Armstrong acknowledged the uncertainty of stepping into the Senate on a temporary basis but expressed confidence in his ability to contribute during the interim. “I feel like I’m stepping off into the abyss,” Armstrong said, “but I look forward to making a difference for the short time that I’m in the Senate.”
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Record-breaking heat expands from the Southwest to the Plains, Midwest, and Southeast… …Wintry precipitation chances across the northern tier through Thursday… …Severe thunderstorms possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Thursday.
