E15 At the Brink — GOP Scramble as DHS Fight Threatens Ethanol Deal

E15 At the Brink — GOP Scramble as DHS Fight Threatens Ethanol Deal

Immigration standoff, oil-industry rift and calendar squeeze collide with push for year-round E15

LINKS

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 1, update Feb. 9

Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 1, update Feb. 9

The Week Ahead: Feb. 8, 2026

UP FRONT

CONGRESS

— Year-round E15 faces narrow legislative window
Republican lawmakers are racing to finalize E15 authorization before recess and a looming DHS funding deadline. Internal refinery divisions over small-refinery exemptions have complicated negotiations. Supporters see structural corn-demand gains at stake, but immigration funding fights could derail timing.

— Rollins pivots to screwworm and water diplomacy
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is highlighting sterile fly dispersal efforts in Texas to prevent New World screwworm while participating in a U.S.–Mexico water agreement roundtable — underscoring livestock biosecurity priorities.

— Bessent urges Senate to advance Warsh nomination
Bessent is pushing for Kevin Warsh’s Fed confirmation hearings despite Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) blocking action pending a DOJ probe into Chair Jerome Powell. The dispute adds to broader tensions over Fed independence.

KEY EVENTS

The week is heavy with Fed speeches, DHS oversight hearings, USMCA review discussions, agroterrorism and DOJ oversight hearings, major farm meetings (World Ag Expo, NCFC, NCAE), and geopolitical forums spanning China, Taiwan, Iran, Venezuela, and Greenland.

ECONOMIC REPORTS

— Markets brace for data deluge and crypto volatility
Retail sales, a delayed January jobs report, and CPI headline a pivotal week. Another 78 S&P 500 firms report earnings, including Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and Cisco. Bitcoin’s retreat adds fragility to broader risk appetite as investors assess inflation, labor-market resilience and consumer momentum.

AG REPORTS

— USDA’s February WASDE lands Tuesday, alongside major global grains, oilseeds and cotton trade updates.
— ERS releases price forecasts, outlook tables and long-term agricultural projections to 2035.
— Export sales, slaughter data, and crop production updates round out a dense reporting week.

ENERGY REPORTS

— OPEC, EIA and IEA all release monthly outlooks.
— EIA petroleum, natural gas and ethanol reports hit midweek.
— International Energy Week (London), Oslo Energy Forum and E-World anchor global discussions.
— Markets also track rig counts, Brent positioning and global oil inventory data.

TOP STORIES—Southern Ag Today warns of deepening farm financial crisisTexas A&M economists say producers have absorbed majority of multi-year losses, with more pain ahead A new analysis from Southern Ag Today, authored by Texas A&M University agricultural economists Dr. Joe Outlaw and Dr. Bart Fischer, underscores what many producers already feel on the ground: the farm economy is in a prolonged financial downturn, and sentiment is deteriorating as losses compound. According to the authors, the “perfect storm” began when commodity prices started sliding in 2023. Since then, the financial pressure has intensified.“Over the last 3 years — from 2023 to 2025 — the losses have been piling up.” Multi-year losses by crop. Outlaw and Fischer estimate that:• Corn, soybean, and wheat producers have accumulated roughly $300 per acre in total losses over the past three years.• Cotton producers have faced far steeper headwinds, with losses nearing $1,000 per acre over the same period. Critically, those figures represent losses after crops have been marketed and expenses paid — meaning producers are ending the year materially “in the hole.” Federal aid — helpful, but partial. The economists acknowledge federal intervention has provided some relief. However, their estimates suggest aid has covered only a portion of the damage:• Roughly 35% of total losses for cotton and soybeans• Roughly 45% of total losses for corn and wheat That leaves producers absorbing between 55% and 65% of the financial hit themselves. In practical terms, even with government support, most of the economic burden remains on farm balance sheets. The tough math facing producers. Outlaw and Fischer outline the stark options producers now confront as they plan for the coming year: •Equity erosion — watching net worth decline in line with accumulated losses•Borrowing to survive — assuming lenders are willing and balance sheets allow• Exit — going out of business All of this is happening while producers attempt to secure operating capital and cash-flow the next crop year — even as the outlook suggests losses could deepen further. Why this matters. The analysis highlights more than temporary cyclical pain. It points to structural stress in the farm economy — particularly for cotton producers — and a prolonged margin squeeze that federal payments have only partially offset. For policymakers weighing additional assistance or structural reforms, the numbers offer context: even substantial federal outlays have not been sufficient to prevent widespread equity drawdowns. For lenders and input suppliers, the message is equally sobering — balance sheets are under sustained strain. And for producers, the central challenge remains brutally simple: how to survive another year when the arithmetic continues to run negative.—U.S./India trade framework: agriculture gains — with guardrailsNew Delhi opens select farm imports while protecting politically sensitive staples The interim trade framework between India and the United States delivers targeted agricultural market access — but stops well short of India’s long-standing farm “red lines.” For U.S. agriculture, the deal provides measured entry into India’s market, especially for value-added and feed products. For India, the agreement preserves protections for politically sensitive staples and shields smallholder farmers from direct competition. What the U.S. gains. Lower tariffs on select farm goods, including:• Distillers dried grains (DDGs) for feed• Tree nuts (such as almonds and walnuts)• Processed fruits• Certain alcoholic beverages, including wine• Improved access for feed and specialty products, sectors where U.S. exporters are globally competitive.• Greater procedural clarity on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures, reducing regulatory uncertainty. These concessions favor products that supplement — rather than directly compete with — India’s core domestic production. What India protected. India held firm on sectors considered economically and politically sensitive:• Dairy — a long-standing red line due to livelihood concerns for millions of small producers.• Staple grains and pulses, tied to food security programs.• Broad resistance to large-scale market opening in basic farm commodities. Indian officials have emphasized that farmer welfare and food security were non-negotiable, and the framework reflects that priority. Strategic takeaway for agriculture. The deal appears structured to:• Expand trade in non-sensitive, higher-value farm categories• Avoid destabilizing India’s domestic farm economy• Create a pathway for incremental agricultural cooperation rather than sweeping liberalization For U.S. producers — especially in nuts, feed grains byproducts, and specialty foods — this is a foothold, not a breakthrough. For India, it’s a calibrated opening that protects its rural political base while improving trade ties. India did not open broad access for U.S. corn — that’s politically sensitive and tied to domestic price supports and food programs. However:• DDGs (distillers dried grains) access is the real story.• DDGs are a byproduct of ethanol production — closely tied to corn demand.• If Indian feed manufacturers increase DDG imports, that supports U.S. ethanol margins, which indirectly supports corn grind. —Bessent blames Chinese speculation for gold volatilityTreasury chief says margin tightening in China fueled “blowoff” rally as markets pivot back to dollar and equities Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pointing the finger at Chinese trading activity for last week’s sharp swings in gold prices, describing the rally as a speculative surge that lost steam just as quickly as it formed. Speaking on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Bessent said “things have gotten a little unruly in China,” noting that authorities there were tightening margin requirements amid heavy trading. He characterized the gold move as a “classical, speculative blowoff” — suggesting excessive leverage and momentum buying rather than sustained fundamentals drove the surge. The volatility came after gold prices hit record highs, buoyed by geopolitical uncertainty, safe-haven demand, and questions surrounding Federal Reserve independence. But the rally abruptly reversed, coinciding with renewed strength in the U.S. dollar and equities. The Dow climbed above 50,000 for the first time, marking a symbolic milestone and reinforcing what Bessent framed as growing investor confidence in the U.S. economy. The dollar also posted its first weekly gain since early January, signaling a rotation away from precious metals and into risk assets. With midterm elections approaching in November, Bessent highlighted the Dow’s record level as evidence the U.S. is entering what he described as an upward economic cycle benefiting “ordinary Americans.” On monetary policy, Bessent suggested the Federal Reserve will move cautiously on balance sheet reductions. He emphasized the central bank’s shift to an “ample reserves” framework, implying that a larger balance sheet is likely to remain in place for some time. “I wouldn’t expect them to do anything quickly,” he said, predicting it could take at least a year before the Fed reassesses its approach. Bessent also addressed President Donald Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, describing Warsh as independent but mindful of accountability to the public. During a recent Senate hearing, Bessent acknowledged that whether to take legal action against a Fed chair over rate policy would ultimately be up to Trump — though he framed prior remarks as stemming from a joke and defended Warsh’s qualifications. The episode underscores how quickly global capital flows — particularly from China’s speculative trading desks — can ripple through U.S. markets, shifting sentiment from safe-haven metals back toward equities and the dollar in a matter of days. —EPA reapproves dicamba for GMO soybeans and cottonAssociated Press: Decision revives long-running drift debate as EPA adds new use limits and buffer requirements The Trump administration has reapproved the weed killer dicamba for use on genetically modified soybeans and cotton, reigniting a contentious fight between farm groups and environmental advocates, according to the Associated Press. Link to EPA release. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said dicamba remains a critical tool for growers battling fast-spreading weeds that threaten yields. The agency paired the approval with new safeguards — including limits on application rates per acre, restrictions tied to high temperatures, and buffer zones designed to reduce chemical drift onto neighboring crops. Why dicamba matters to farmers. Dicamba has been used for decades but saw expanded adoption with the introduction of genetically engineered crops designed to tolerate it. Farmers can spray it “over the top” of soybeans and cotton to kill weeds without harming the crop itself. The EPA emphasized that producers have consistently requested continued access to dicamba and that, if label directions are followed, the herbicide can be used without threatening human health or the environment. The American Soybean Association praised the decision, arguing that regulatory clarity helps farmers plan for the upcoming growing season and manage resistant weeds more effectively. Drift concerns and court history. Dicamba has been one of the most controversial crop-protection products in recent memory due to its volatility and tendency to drift. Critics say off-target movement has damaged millions of acres of neighboring soybeans, specialty crops, orchards, trees, and natural vegetation. Environmental advocates sharply criticized the EPA’s move, noting that courts blocked prior registrations in 2020 and 2024 over drift and environmental harm concerns. They argue that allowing over-the-top applications on soybeans and cotton will significantly expand total usage. Nathan Donley of the Center for Biological Diversity accused the administration of favoring pesticide manufacturers over environmental and public health concerns. Advocacy groups contend the new buffers and temperature cutoffs remain insufficient and that prior mitigation efforts have failed to prevent widespread crop injury.Health questions remain. Researchers continue to study potential human health effects. A 2020 study in the International Journal of Epidemiology found an association between dicamba exposure and elevated risks for certain cancers, including liver cancer and a form of leukemia. While regulatory agencies have not concluded that dicamba poses unacceptable human health risks when used as directed, the findings have fueled ongoing scrutiny. Next steps. Bayer, one of the primary dicamba manufacturers, said federal registration clears the way to pursue state-level approvals. The company plans to begin applicator training programs in the coming weeks. The decision sets up another growing-season test of whether tighter federal restrictions can address the drift issues that have dogged dicamba for years — or whether the legal and political battles over its use will intensify once again. —USMEF presses for China beef market reopeningIndustry leaders tell producers access is critical to carcass value, export demand, and consumer affordability At the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention in Nashville (CattleCon), leaders from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) delivered a candid update on efforts to regain U.S. beef access to China, underscoring the market’s strategic importance even amid tight cattle supplies. Erin Borror, USMEF vice president for economic analysis, told producers there has been no breakthrough yet in reopening China, describing the situation as a “complicated market closure.” Still, she emphasized the necessity of restoring access — particularly at this stage of the cattle cycle — to maintain export channels that add value across the entire carcass. Borror stressed that exports are not just about volume but about maximizing carcass value. Even with relatively low U.S. supplies, she said, the industry must have access to key international markets like China to sustain pricing power and profitability. She also noted that USMEF has been working in Washington to reinforce the message that export access benefits both producers and American consumers by supporting affordability and optimizing product utilization Jay Theiler, USMEF chair and a representative of Agri-Beef, said he recently met with officials from USDA and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. According to Theiler, trade officials recognize the importance of China not only as a standalone buyer but as a competitive bidder that strengthens overall carcass value and supports pricing in other Asian markets. While acknowledging that the market may not reopen immediately, Theiler said USTR officials remain actively engaged in negotiations and understand the challenges facing the beef sector. The takeaway for producers: China access remains a top priority. Even in a constrained cattle supply environment, export demand — particularly from a major market like China — plays a critical role in sustaining industry value and long-term competitiveness.
—Japan’s Sanae Takaichi poised for historic landslideLDP heads toward two-thirds supermajority as markets eye fiscal signals and weaker yenJapanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is on track for a sweeping general election victory, with her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) projected to secure a two-thirds supermajority — the largest post-war win by a single party in Japan.In her first remarks after polls closed, Takaichi struck a measured tone on fiscal policy, signaling continuity rather than immediate stimulus. She pledged to accelerate discussions on a potential sales-tax reduction but avoided committing to a rapid overhaul — a sign she’s balancing political momentum with market stability.Meanwhile, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she would communicate with financial markets if necessary when trading resumes, underscoring government sensitivity to investor reaction.Currency markets responded cautiously. The yen slipped modestly in early trading, reflecting expectations that fiscal policy may remain gradual rather than aggressively expansionary despite the scale of the political mandate.The decisive outcome gives Takaichi broad legislative leverage — potentially reshaping tax, defense, and structural reform debates — but her immediate messaging suggests she intends to move deliberately, mindful of bond markets and currency stability.

—CONGRESS

—Republican lawmakers are in a narrowing window to finalize a deal authorizing year-round sales of E15 — a long-sought priority for corn-state lawmakers and biofuels groups — and attach it to a legislative vehicle that can reach President Donald Trump’s desk.

The urgency is procedural and political.

House leadership declined last month to include E15 language in a must-pass spending bill, instead forming a GOP-only E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council to broker a compromise. The council must submit a proposal by Sunday Feb. 15, aiming for floor consideration by Feb. 25. But both chambers are scheduled to recess the week of Feb. 16 — shrinking the legislative runway even further.

Meanwhile, Congress faces a Friday deadline to fund the Department of Homeland Security. Republicans and Democrats are bracing for a fresh clash over the Trump administration’s deportation policies — a fight that could consume floor time and derail unrelated priorities, including ethanol.

Corn vs. crude — and refiners vs. refiners. The E15 debate is no longer just about ethanol. It has become entangled in a broader fight over exemptions under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).

Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) — a member of the council — voiced frustration at the repeated setbacks told AgriTalk on Friday he thinks the measure will get approved.

The latest breakdown stemmed from opposition by smaller refiners, who objected to a proposal that would narrow eligibility for small-refinery exemptions (SREs) under the RFS. Those exemptions have long been criticized by ethanol advocates as undercutting statutory blending volumes.

In a twist, the American Petroleum Institute, which represents major refiners, supports the exemption overhaul and argues the current system distorts markets and injects regulatory uncertainty.

That internal oil-industry split — small refiners vs. large refiners — has left crop-based biofuels caught in the crossfire.

For corn growers and ethanol producers, the stakes are structural. Year-round E15 would:

• Expand market access for corn-based ethanol

• Reduce seasonal volatility in blending and pricing

• Provide longer-term demand stability for Midwest producers

After more than a decade of failed attempts and last-minute collapses, industry patience is thin.

DHS funding as a wildcard. The Department of Homeland Security funding fight is emerging as the biggest immediate threat to E15 momentum.

If immigration policy disputes stall a DHS funding bill, leadership may deprioritize other add-ons. Alternatively, if a compromise DHS package moves quickly, E15 could be attached as part of a broader negotiated deal.

The political irony? E15 has bipartisan roots, yet its path forward is now dependent on resolving one of the most polarizing issues in Washington.

Bottom Line: E15 supporters have a narrow legislative window and a fragile coalition. The policy enjoys broad rhetorical backing — but procedural timing, oil-industry divisions, and an immigration funding showdown are converging at exactly the wrong moment. If lawmakers can’t thread the needle this week, year-round E15 may once again slip into the category of bipartisan ideas that never quite cross the finish line.

—Rollins pivots to screwworm and water diplomacy

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is in Texas spotlighting another high-profile agricultural issue — prevention of a New World screwworm outbreak.

USDA recently expanded the dispersal of sterile flies from Mexico into southern Texas to prevent infestation. The sterile flies carry a fluorescent dye, enabling animal health officials to distinguish them from wild, harmful flies.

Rollins is scheduled to:

• Participate in a roundtable with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on the new U.S.-Mexico water agreement

• Attend the opening of a USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service facility focused on sterile-fly dispersal

The screwworm effort underscores the administration’s focus on livestock biosecurity, even as biofuel policy remains unresolved on Capitol Hill.

—Bessent urges Senate to move forward on Warsh Fed nomination

Treasury chief suggests confirmation hearings proceed despite GOP blockade tied to DOJ probe of Chair Powell

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is urging the Senate to begin confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh, even as a key Republican vows to block all Federal Reserve nominations until a Justice Department investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell is resolved.

Warsh, nominated by Donald Trump on Jan. 30 to replace Powell, previously won Senate confirmation as a Fed governor — a point Bessent highlighted in arguing there is precedent and bipartisan familiarity with the nominee.

The standoff centers on Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a member of the Senate Banking Committee, who has said he will block progress on Trump’s Fed nominees until the Department of Justice completes its probe into Powell’s testimony last year regarding renovations at the Fed’s headquarters. Tillis has framed himself as a “witness at the alleged scene of the crime” and warned that the investigation risks politicizing the central bank.

Bessent countered that hearings should move ahead in parallel with the probe led by Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, who has reportedly issued subpoenas in the matter. Appearing on Fox News, Bessent suggested there is no reason to freeze the nomination process while investigators conduct their review.

Fed independence in the spotlight. The dispute comes amid broader tensions over Federal Reserve independence and President Trump’s public comments about monetary policy. During recent congressional appearances, Bessent was pressed on whether the president could remove a Fed official over policy disagreements or pursue legal action over interest-rate decisions.

After initially suggesting such decisions were “up to the president,” Bessent later clarified that Trump had been joking when referencing potential legal action against Warsh over interest rates. He emphasized that the president “has great respect for the Fed” and its institutional independence.

Political stakes rising. The impasse creates a high-stakes test for Senate Republicans. Tillis has submitted statements from senators who say they saw no criminal intent in Powell’s prior remarks, while some GOP lawmakers have criticized the probe as unnecessary. At the same time, Trump’s effort to reshape the Fed’s leadership structure is unfolding against a backdrop of market sensitivity to political pressure on monetary policy.

The immediate question is procedural: whether the Senate Banking Committee will schedule hearings for Warsh despite Tillis’ threat — or whether the nomination becomes entangled in a broader fight over the Justice Department investigation and the Fed’s autonomy.

Either way, the clash underscores how the confirmation process for the nation’s central bank has become another flashpoint in Washington’s broader struggle over executive power and institutional independence.

—KEY EVENTS

Mon., Feb. 9

• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on Digital Assets in California; Fed Governor Stephen Miran participates in two events labeled Conversation with Fed Governor Stephen Miran at two events in Boston.

•USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins holds a roundtable discussion on the recently announced U.S.-Mexico water agreement, Mission, Texas.

• USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins attends the opening of USDA sterile fly dispersal facility, part of the administration’s plan to protect U.S. livestock. Edinburg, Texas.

• Trump China policy. Foreign Policy holds a virtual discussion on “Decoding Trump’s China Policy.”

• Japan elections. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on “Inside Japan’s High-Stakes Snap Election.”

•Energy issues. The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners holds its Winter Policy Summit, runs through Wednesday.

• China and Africa. The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) hosts the third annual Africa-Americas Forum on China.

•MAHA at one year. The Heritage Foundation holds a discussion on “One Year of Making America Healthy Again.”

• U.S./Iran situation. Foreign Policy holds a virtual discussion on “will the US and Iran Escalate?”

• Venezuela situation. The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland holds a discussion on “Venezuela at a Crossroads: How it Got There and What Comes Next.”

Tue., Feb. 10

•DHS oversight. House Homeland Security Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security: ICE, CBP, and USCIS.”

•Broadband and Department of Commerce. Senate Appropriations Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “A Review of Broadband Deployment Funding at the Department of Commerce.”

•USMCA. The Agricultural Coalition for the United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement will hold a Zoom press conference to release an economic study pointing to the impact and importance of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. An ag economist and a panel of experts will discuss the findings and are expected to urge leaders of the United States, Canada and Mexico to renew and further strengthen USMCA as the agreement enters its formal review period.

• World Ag Expo, through Thursday, Tulare, California.

•National Council of Farmer Cooperatives annual meeting, through Thursday. San Antonio.

•National Council of Agriculture Employers annual meeting through Thursday, Washington.

• Housing costs. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “Priced Out of the American Dream: Understanding the Policies Behind Rising Costs of Housing and Borrowing.”

• U.S. elections. House Administration Committee hearing on “Make Elections Great Again: How to Restore Trust and Integrity in Federal Elections.”

• America250 and public lands. House Natural Resources Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing on “All in for America250: Public-Private Partnerships Supporting America’s Semiquincentennial on our Public Lands.”

•Trump foreign policy. The Hudson Institute holds a discussion on “Year One of Trump’s Foreign Policy.”

• Global outlook. The Atlantic Council holds a discussion on “Global Foresight 2036: What Will the Next Decade Bring?”

•Immigration. House Foreign Affairs Europe Subcommittee hearing on “Weaponized Mass Migration: A Security Risk to Europe and the United States.”

•Rural economic opportunities. National League of Cities holds a virtual discussion on “How Rural Community Leaders Are Creating Economic Opportunity.”

• Somali fraud in Minnesota. Senate Judiciary Border Security and Immigration Subcommittee hearing on “Somali Fraud in Minnesota — The Tip of the Iceberg.”

•Fraud, foreign influence in U.S. programs. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Disaster Management, District of Columbia, and Census Subcommittee hearing on “Examining Fraud and Foreign Influence in State and Federal Programs.”

Wed.,Feb. 11

• Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman delivers virtual remarks on Supervision and Regulation.

• National Farm Machinery Show, through Saturday, Louisville, Kentucky.

• Agroterrorism. House Homeland Security Emergency Management and Technology Subcommittee hearing on “Surveying the Threat of Agroterrorism, Part II: Assessing Federal Government Efforts.”

• DOJ oversight. House Judiciary Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Justice.” Attorney General Pam Bondi testifies.

•SEC oversight. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission.” SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins testifies.

•U.S. power. We Think Big holds a discussion on “How Acquisition Reform Will Reshape US Power.”

• Eliminating duplicate programs. House Oversight and Government Reform Delivering on Government Efficiency Subcommittee hearing on “Doing More with Less: Deleting Duplicative Programs.”

• Global economy. The Brookings Institution holds a book discussion on “The Doom Loop: Why the World Economic Order is Spiraling into Disorder.”

•China and Taiwan. House (Select) Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee hearing on “Lies, Lawfare, and Leverage: The CCP’s Gaslighting and Manipulation to Marginalize Taiwan.”

• Potential DHS shutdown impacts. House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on “Potential DHS Shutdown Impacts.”

• Farm Credit Insurance meeting. Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation holds a meeting of the board of directors. Agenda includes a review and setting of insurance premium accrual rates.

• Lowering drug costs. House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee hearing on “Lowering Health Care Costs for All Americans: An Examination of the Prescription Drug Supply Chain.”

• Fusion energy. The Hudson Institute holds a discussion on “The National and Economic Security Implications of Fusion Energy.”

• Greenland and telecommunications. Broadband Breakfast holds a virtual discussion on “Greenland and Telecom Geopolitics.”

• U.S. policy in South Asia. House Foreign Affairs East Asia and Pacific Subcommittee hearing on “South Asia: US Foreign Policy in the Region.”

• Transportation research. House Science, Space, and Technology Research and Technology Subcommittee hearing on “Accelerating Progress: US Surface Transportation Research.”

• Mortgage issues. House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee hearing on “Homeownership and the Role of the Secondary Mortgage Market.”

• Broadband issues. National Telecommunications and Information Administration holds a virtual meeting to discuss the use of broadband equity, access and deployment funds saved through the Trump administration’s benefit of the bargain reforms.

Thur.,Feb. 12

•Federal Reserve. Stephen Miran participates in a Conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran at a Dallas Fed event.

• Assessing USMCA. Senate Finance Committee hearing on “The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement: Evaluating North American Competitiveness.”

• Greenland issues. The Women’s Foreign Policy Group holds a virtual discussion on “Greenland: Examining Arctic Geopolitics and the Transatlantic Relationship.”

• ICE oversight. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on oversight of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS).

• Europe situation. The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) holds a virtual discussion on “Transatlantic Turbulence: What Next for Europe?”

• Farm Credit Administration meeting. Farm Credit Administration holds a meeting on human capital overview and final rule – SEC 618.8440 business planning.

• SEC oversight. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on “Oversight of the US Securities and Exchange Commission.” SEC Chairman Paul Atikins testifies.

• Aggression against Taiwan. The Atlantic Council holds a discussion on “Deterring Aggression Against Taiwan.”

• Digital economy. The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on “the future of the digital economy.”

Fri., Feb. 13

• WTO reform. The Washington International Trade Association (WITA) holds a virtual discussion on “WTO Matters: WTO Reform — Part 2.”

• Golden Dome effort. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on “Golden Dome One Year In.”

—ECONOMIC REPORTS

—Markets brace for data deluge and crypto volatility

Earnings wave collides with delayed jobs, CPI and fragile risk sentiment

Wall Street is heading into one of those weeks where everything seems to hit at once — heavyweight earnings, delayed economic data, and a crypto market still nursing bruises from a sharp risk-off move.

After the Dow crossed the 50,000 mark for the first time last week, sentiment is cautiously optimistic — but fragile.

Economic Calendar: three market movers. This week’s macro lineup has real bite:

• Tuesday — December retail sales

• Wednesday — January jobs report (delayed by the partial government shutdown)

• Friday — January CPI

Retail sales will give investors a read on the strength of the U.S. consumer — still the backbone of GDP.

The delayed January jobs report adds another layer of uncertainty. Labor data has been resilient, but cracks are starting to show in tech and cyclical sectors. Wage growth will be closely scrutinized for inflation pressure signals.

Then comes CPI — the big one. After markets have wrestled with tariff-related inflation risks and Fed uncertainty in recent months, this print could shape rate expectations heading into spring. If inflation surprises to the upside, rate-cut hopes may get pushed further out.

Earnings: Another 78 S&P 500 companies report this week, including three Dow components:

Coca-Cola: Investors will look for pricing power and global demand trends — especially in emerging markets where currency pressures and consumer softness have surfaced.

McDonald’s: Same-store sales and consumer trade-down behavior will be key. Analysts want to know whether middle-income consumers are pulling back or still spending on convenience dining.

Cisco: Corporate IT spending remains under the microscope. Any commentary on enterprise demand or AI infrastructure orders could move the broader tech complex.

Crypto: the wild card. Bitcoin’s sharp retreat has amplified risk sensitivity across markets. After surging in late 2025 amid “U.S. crypto superpower” rhetoric, the recent unwind has hit leveraged players and crypto-linked equities hard.

If crypto stabilizes, it could ease pressure on high-beta tech. If it keeps sliding, expect broader volatility to persist.

The bigger picture: This week isn’t just about whether earnings beat expectations. It’s about whether:

• The consumer is cooling

• Inflation is reaccelerating

• The labor market is finally bending

Risk appetite can recover after crypto’s drawdown

Buckle up — this is the kind of week that resets narratives.

Mon., Feb. 9

• Economic reports/events. Earnings: Tyson Foods.

Tues., Feb. 10

• Economic reports/events. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | Retail Sales | Employment Cost Index | Business Inventories| EARNINGS: BP; Williams Companies; Duke Energy

Wed.,Feb. 11

• Economic reports/events: Employment | Treasury Budget | Earnings: Aker BP; TotalEnergies; Yara.

Thur.,Feb. 12

• Economic reports/events. Jobless Claims | Existing Home Sales | Earnings: INPEX; ONGC.

Fri., Feb. 13

• Economic reports/events. CPI | Earnings: ENEOS; Enbridge; TC Energy

—AG REPORTS

—USDA’s next monthly WASDE report will be released on Tuesday.

Mon., Feb. 9

• USDA reports. AMS. Export Inspections NASS: Catfish Production
• Other reports. Palm & Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference, day one

Tue., Feb. 10

•USDA reports. ERS: America’s Farms and Ranches At A Glance: 2025 Edition | Fruit and Tree Nuts Yearbook FAS: Cotton: World Markets and Trade | Grains: World Markets and Trade | Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade | World Agricultural Production WAOB: WASDE NASS: Crop Production | Cotton Ginnings
• Other reports. Palm & Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference, day two | MPOB palm oil stocks, production, exports for end-January | EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data | France agriculture ministry report — estimates for key crops | CASDE report | Future of Food summit, London | Malaysia Feb. 1-10 palm oil exports

Wed.,Feb. 11

• USDA reports. ERS: Season-Average Price Forecasts | Meat Price Spreads | Dairy Monthly Tables and Dairy Quarterly Data | Feed Grains Database NASS: Broiler Hatchery

• Other reports. Palm & Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference | FranceAgriMer monthly grains balance sheet | Earnings: Yara

Thur.,Feb. 12

Fri., Feb. 13

•USDA reports. ERS: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2035 NASS: Cost of Pollination | Farm and Land in Farms | Peanut Prices | CFTC Commitments of Traders

—ENERGY REPORTS

—All three of the major oil forecasting agencies — OPEC, the EIA and the IEA — will publish their monthly market outlooks. Major conferences will include International Energy Week in London, as well as E-World in Essen and the Oslo Energy Forum.

Mon., Feb. 9

• Energy reports. Holiday: Malaysia, Mexico.

Tue., Feb. 10

•Other reports: International Energy Week, London (through Feb. 12) |

Oslo Energy Forum (through Feb. 12 | E-World, Essen (through Feb. 12) |

Earnings: BP, Williams Companies, Duke Energy.

Wed.,Feb. 11

•Energy reports. EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production |OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report | Bloomberg 10^th Annual Oil Markets Outlook | Holiday: Japan.

• Other reports and events. Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region | International Energy Week, London (through Feb. 12) | Oslo Energy Forum (through Feb. 12). Click here for program

E-World, Essen (through Feb. 12) | Earnings: Aker BP, TotalEnergies

Thur.,Feb. 12

• Energy reports. EIA Natural Gas Report | IEA Oil Market Report | ICE gasoil futures for February expire | Holiday: Myanmar.

• Other reports and events. Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | Insights Global weekly oil-product inventories in Europe’s ARA region | International Energy Week, London (last day) | E-World, Essen (last day) | Oslo Energy Forum (last day) | Earnings: INPEX, ONGC.

Friday, Feb. 13

Ag Intel

E15 At the Brink — GOP Scramble as DHS Fight Threatens Ethanol Deal

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