Early Chinese Soybean Buys May Signal Thaw, Not Disappointment
Analysts caution against reading too much into modest COFCO purchases ahead of Trump/Xi summit
China’s COFCO has purchased three cargoes of U.S. soybeans — the first confirmed Chinese buys for this season — ahead of Thursday’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. While the move sparked brief optimism, some market participants viewed the scale as underwhelming compared to past goodwill gestures.
Still, analysts say it may be premature to dismiss the purchases as a token move. The roughly 180,000 to 200,000 metric tons involved could mark the start of a phased buying approach, with additional volumes contingent on progress in the Trump/Xi discussions. In previous negotiating rounds, Beijing often began with small, symbolic shipments before scaling up once political signals turned positive.
The sales also arrive at a sensitive moment in the U.S. soybean market, where farmer sentiment remains fragile amid high input costs and sluggish exports. Even limited Chinese demand can lend psychological support to futures prices, particularly if the buys indicate improving bilateral communication.
“The purchases should be viewed as a diplomatic toe in the water,” one trade analyst noted. “If there’s even a modest breakthrough in South Korea, more substantial orders could follow quickly.”
For now, traders are cautious but not dismissive. The coming days — and whether additional cargoes are booked — will reveal whether this week’s sales are a fleeting gesture or the first step toward a renewed trade channel between the world’s two largest soybean players.
