Farm Bill 2.0 Clears House Ag Panel

Farm Bill 2.0 Clears House Ag Panel

China cuts growth rate target, details ag sector/trade agenda | War with Iran continues to impact energy, fertilizer, trade logistics

LINKS

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 27

Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 27

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 5, 2026

UP FRONT

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Markets today — Asian equities bounced, oil and haven assets stayed bid on war risk, and U.S./European futures edged lower.

— Equities yesterday — Major U.S. indexes finished higher (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 all up on the day).

— Fed Beige Book signals soft but stable economy — The Beige Book describes modest overall growth, with agriculture flat-to-mixed: tight crop margins and drought risks offset by stronger livestock and support payments.

AG MARKETS

— Middle East war threatens Brazil’s beef exports — Gulf shipping disruptions and war-risk surcharges could upend a large share of Brazil’s export logistics, with spillovers into slaughter pace and cattle prices.

— Brazil sorghum exports to China expected to accelerate in second half — Exporters expect volumes to pick up from July as second-crop supplies arrive and China approvals expand.

— Agriculture markets yesterday — Grains were mostly lower, soybean oil and livestock were higher, and cotton edged up.

FARM POLICY

— House Ag Committee advances Farm Bill 2.0 — The “skinny” farm bill advanced 34–17 with seven Democrats joining Republicans, but the floor path remains uncertain amid fights over SNAP, Prop 12, pesticides, EQIP shifts, E15, and USMCA reporting.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Thursday: Oil rally extends as Middle East war threatens energy supplies — Brent and WTI jumped again as Hormuz disruption risk, Iraq output cuts, and LNG supply concerns intensify.

— Wednesday: Oil markets hold elevated levels as Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts global supply — Prices were steady but high as traders weighed shipping bottlenecks, Iraq constraints, and potential U.S. tanker escorts.

TRADE POLICY

— Court orders reliquidation for some IEEPA tariff shipments — A trade court order directs CBP to liquidate or reliquidate certain entries without the now-invalid IEEPA duties, opening a refund pathway at least for non-final liquidations.

CHINA

— China curbs fuel exports, lowers growth target amid war-driven energy risks — Beijing is prioritizing domestic fuel supply and signaled a more cautious growth outlook as Middle East disruptions ripple through energy markets.

— China’s new five-year plan prioritizes food security and farm production — The plan raises grain production targets and signals continued import reliance for key commodities while managing livestock overcapacity and supporting dairy and beef.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Daines retirement reshapes Montana Senate race — Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is not running again and endorsed U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, rapidly consolidating the GOP field around a late-breaking succession.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

— USDA expands SNAP purchase restrictions to four more states — USDA approved waivers for Kansas, Nevada, Wyoming, and Ohio, and Secretary Rollins says a final SNAP retailer stocking rule is nearing release.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook — Severe storms are possible from the southern/central Plains into the Midwest, wildfire spread is a risk on the southern High Plains, and wintry weather targets the Rockies and parts of New England.

TOP STORIES—House Ag Committee advances Farm Bill 2.0 amid partisan clashMeasure faces steep path on House floor as GOP divisions mean Democratic votes may still fall short Republicans pushed their farm bill out of the House Agriculture Committee early today following a marathon and highly partisan debate, sending the legislation to the House floor but leaving significant uncertainty about its ultimate fate. (For details, see the Farm Policy section below.) The measure cleared the committee 34-17 after hours of contentious debate that highlighted deep policy divisions between the parties and foreshadowed the political messaging likely to shape the midterm elections. Seven Democrats voted for the measure. While advancing the bill marks a key procedural step, its path to final passage in the full House remains difficult. If a House floor vote occurs, several Republicans are expected to oppose the measure, meaning GOP leaders will need Democratic support to pass it. However, Democratic backing may not be sufficient to offset conservative defections, creating a high hurdle for final approval. Democrats used the lengthy markup to force votes on a range of policy issues, pressing Republicans on biofuel policy, conservation funding, and trade concerns. Among the issues raised was year-round E15 gasoline sales, a priority for many Midwestern lawmakers and the ethanol industry. Despite the partisan clashes, the committee debate allowed members from both parties to stake out policy positions and signal priorities ahead of the next stage of negotiations — and ahead of the midterm election cycle. The upcoming House floor fight will determine whether the legislation advances or joins previous farm bill attempts that stalled amid divisions within Congress. —USDA’s Lindberg: Agricultural trade gap to fall further in 2026 Undersecretary Luke Lindberg tells House appropriators FY 2026 deficit could fall to $29 billion as export deals and tariff reductions boost sales. The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is now projected to shrink further in fiscal year 2026, according to USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg, who told House appropriators that the gap could narrow to about $29 billion, significantly lower than earlier estimates. Testifying before the House Appropriations agriculture subcommittee on March 4, Lindberg said the revised forecast represents an $8 billion improvement from USDA’s December 2025 outlook and a $14.7 billion improvement from the $43.7 billion deficit recorded in FY2025. USDA’s Economic Research Service estimates that the United States will export about $174 billion in agricultural goods in 2026 while importing roughly $203 billion, producing the $29 billion deficit. Earlier USDA long-term projections had suggested a wider $37 billion deficit, based on higher expected imports. Lindberg credited the improvement to the Trump administration’s trade agenda, saying new agreements and enforcement actions are helping rebuild export demand. He highlighted more than 18 trade deals and frameworks that he said are boosting U.S. farm exports and restoring leverage in global markets. Among the examples cited:• Japan has committed to $8 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases.• Thailand agreed to eliminate tariffs on 99% of U.S. goods and make a $2.6 billion annual feed grain commitment.•Several Asian and Latin American partners have reduced non-tariff barriers to U.S. agricultural imports. “These are not abstract commitments,” Lindberg said. “They are real tariff reductions, purchase agreements and reforms that are translating into export growth.” However, Democrats on the panel challenged the administration’s claim that the trade deficit was inherited from the previous administration. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the full committee ranking member, noted that the United States first shifted into an agricultural trade deficit in FY2019, during President Donald Trump’s first term. “There’s always the inclination to claim that the U.S. shifted to an agricultural trade deficit under President Biden,” DeLauro said. “But the trend began under President Trump.” Similarly, agriculture subcommittee ranking member Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.) argued the shift from surplus to deficit coincided with tariffs imposed during the earlier U.S./China trade conflict. According to USDA data, the United States recorded a $1.3 billion agricultural trade deficit in FY 2019 and $3.7 billion in FY 2020, followed by temporary surpluses in 2021 and 2022 before returning to deficits in subsequent years. The updated forecast suggests that the administration’s push for new market access — particularly in Asia — could begin narrowing the gap, though the U.S. is still expected to remain a net importer of agricultural products in 2026. Oversight hearing spotlights staffing, ethanol exports and dairy trade During a House appropriations hearing, Ranking Member Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.) pressed USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg on staffing shortages, biofuel market access and dairy protections ahead of the upcoming review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement. Bishop raised concerns about workforce losses at USDA, arguing agencies remain in “recovery mode” after sweeping deferred-resignation offers tied to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) reduced federal staffing. He specifically asked how the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is operating with fewer employees. Lindberg said the agency has continued to function despite the departure of career staff but acknowledged plans to rebuild capacity. USDA intends to hire additional employees this year, including staff to support the Food for Peace program and a targeted number of new Foreign Service officers to strengthen overseas representation. Lindberg did not provide a specific hiring target. The hearing also touched on biofuels policy. Responding to Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), Lindberg said USDA is actively pursuing export markets for E15 blends while Congress continues debating legislation to allow year-round domestic sales. He said biofuels are routinely part of trade discussions with foreign governments and highlighted several potential markets. Lindberg noted he plans to travel to Guatemala in two weeks to ensure the country follows through on a January agreement to purchase at least 50 million gallons of U.S. ethanol annually. He also cited Indonesia and Mexico as potential growth markets for U.S. ethanol exports. Lindberg added that protecting U.S. dairy producers will be a key objective in the upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. He criticized European policies that restrict the use of common cheese names such as feta and parmesan, saying those rules unfairly limit U.S. dairy exports. Lindberg also said Canada’s handling of dairy market access under USMCA remains a major concern and will be a top priority for USDA during the review process. —Trump administration targets late-March release for FY 2027 budget proposalPlan could seek $1.5 trillion for defense while raising questions about reconciliation and congressional supportThe Trump administration is tentatively aiming to release its fiscal year (FY) 2027 budget proposal during the week of March 30, according to multiple sources cited by CQ. If the administration meets that timeline, the proposal would arrive roughly eight weeks after the statutory deadline but nearly a month earlier than the administration’s FY 2026 budget submission. Few details about the plan have been disclosed so far. However, President Donald Trump has indicated he will seek approximately $1.5 trillion for the Department of Defense, a level that would represent about a 50% increase from FY 2026 funding. There is also discussion inside the administration about splitting the defense request between the regular appropriations process and budget reconciliation. According to CQ reporting, roughly $1.1 trillion could be requested through the standard budget process, while $400 billion could be pursued through reconciliation, which would allow the measure to bypass the Senate’s 60-vote threshold. Still, some Republicans have signaled reluctance to launch another reconciliation effort so soon after last year’s legislative push. Without reconciliation, securing Senate support for a $1.5 trillion defense budget could prove difficult. Even if the administration proposes that level, Congress ultimately controls federal spending. Historically, presidential budget proposals rarely pass unchanged, even when the president’s party controls both chambers of Congress — as demonstrated during the FY 2026 funding cycle. Another major question is whether lawmakers can complete the FY 2027 appropriations process before the fiscal year begins on Oct. 1. The failure to finalize the FY 2026 budget resulted in a record-long government shutdown, and many lawmakers are expected to try to avoid a repeat of that situation, particularly with midterm elections scheduled for November.—U.S. eyes 15% global tariff as allies deepen trade ties elsewhereBessent signals restoration of tariff levels after Supreme Court ruling while other economies accelerate trade partnerships that sideline the U.S. The United States is likely to implement a 15% global tariff this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, signaling the Trump administration’s plan to restore trade barriers after the Supreme Court recently struck down last year’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. Bessent indicated the new tariff rate would effectively return U.S. levies to roughly the levels in place before the court invalidated the earlier duties, reinforcing the administration’s strategy of using broad tariffs as leverage in global trade negotiations. Meanwhile, several major economies are moving to expand trade relationships with one another, in some cases bypassing the United States.• Brazil ratified a major trade deal between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc, strengthening commercial ties between Europe and Latin America’s largest economies.•The European Union is reportedly preparing to expand its “Made in Europe” preferential manufacturing zone to include countries such as Japan and the United Kingdom, along with dozens of other trusted partners.•Canada’s premier is traveling internationally to rally “middle powers” to deepen trade cooperation and diversify supply chains. The developments underscore a growing divide in global trade policy: Washington is moving toward broader tariffs, while many other economies are responding by tightening trade networks among themselves.—Senate blocks Democratic bid to halt Iran strikesRepublicans close ranks behind Trump administration as Congress debates war powers and oversight Republican lawmakers in the U.S. Senate on Wednesday rejected a Democratic-led effort to halt U.S. military strikes on Iran, underscoring strong GOP support for the Trump administration’s military campaign as the conflict in the Middle East intensifies. The only Republican voting with Democrats was Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). The failed measure sought to require the administration to end offensive military operations against Iran unless explicitly authorized by Congress. Democratic senators argued the resolution was necessary to reassert Congress’s constitutional authority over war powers and prevent the United States from becoming drawn into a broader regional war. Republican senators, however, largely sided with President Donald Trump and administration officials who contend the strikes are justified under existing presidential authorities, including the need to protect U.S. forces and respond to threats posed by Iran and its regional proxies. House vote expected today. Attention is now shifting to the House of Representatives, where Democrats have introduced a similar resolution aimed at blocking continued U.S. military action against Iran without congressional approval. Given the GOP majority and the Senate’s earlier vote, the resolution faces long odds of passing. GOP Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) are expected to support the effort. But a small group of Democrats are expected to oppose the resolution, making it likely to fail. The votes come amid growing debate in Washington over the scope of presidential war powers as the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran expands across the region. Democrats and some foreign policy analysts argue that sustained military operations against Iran should require explicit congressional authorization under the War Powers Resolution. Republicans and many administration allies counter that the president retains broad authority to conduct military operations to defend U.S. personnel, deter threats, and maintain stability in critical global regions — particularly amid escalating attacks involving Iran and its allies. —Japan moves to preserve U.S. trade deal ahead of Trump/Takaichi SummitTokyo dispatches trade minister to Washington as tariff terms and investment commitments come under scrutiny Japanese Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa will travel to Washington this week as Tokyo works to preserve its trade agreement with the United States and build momentum ahead of a planned summit later this month between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and President Donald Trump. According to Japan’s Trade Ministry, Akazawa will depart Tokyo today and meet with U.S. officials in Washington before returning Sunday. The visit follows last month’s announcement that Japan plans to invest up to $36 billion in an initial set of projects tied to a broader $550 billion bilateral investment initiative, a cornerstone of last year’s U.S./Japan trade deal. That agreement capped U.S. tariffs on Japanese imports — including automobiles — at 15%. During the Washington meetings, Akazawa and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are expected to discuss a second round of investment projects ahead of the March 19 Trump–Takaichi summit, according to Kyodo News. Details about financing for the first round of investments remain unclear. Under the terms of the agreement, the United States could raise tariffs above the 15% cap if Washington concludes that Japan is not implementing the investment commitments quickly enough. The talks also come as the Trump administration recalibrates its tariff strategy following a recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down an earlier round of so-called reciprocal tariffs. Tokyo is seeking assurances that any new U.S. tariff framework will not impose harsher terms on Japan than those outlined in the bilateral trade agreement. —Trump weighs firing DHS chief NoemAd controversy and tense hearings put Homeland Security secretary’s future in doubt President Donald Trump has privately asked Republican lawmakers whether he should fire Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, signaling growing frustration inside the White House following her recent congressional testimony. Noem faced sharp questioning during Senate and House Judiciary hearings, including from Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), who pressed her about a $220 million government-funded advertising campaign that prominently features the secretary. Under questioning, Noem said Trump approved the campaign — a response that reportedly angered the president. She also drew criticism from Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who has called on her to resign and threatened to slow Senate business until his questions about DHS are answered.Republicans are divided over whether Trump should replace Noem, warning that confirming a new DHS secretary could prove difficult in the Senate — especially amid the ongoing 19-day Department of Homeland Security shutdown and fierce fights over immigration policy. —OMB begins meetings on RFS “Set 2” ruleStakeholder sessions with biofuel, refining, and agricultural groups are scheduled through mid-March as the administration reviews EPA’s final Renewable Fuel Standard proposal Today marks the start of meetings at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) “Set 2” final rule. In total, 11 stakeholder sessions are scheduled through mid-March. Today’s meetings include the American Soybean Association and the American Forest and Paper Association. Additional sessions are scheduled for March 6 with Clean Fuels Alliance America; March 10 with Anew Climate and the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA); March 11 with Fuels America; March 12 with Growth Energy and the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers; March 16 with SIGMA — America’s Leading Fuel Marketers and NATSO — Representing America’s Travel Centers and Truck Stops; and March 17 with biofuel industry adviser Anthony Reed. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) “Set 2” rule is the EPA regulation that sets the annual renewable fuel blending requirements — known as Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) — for 2026 and 2027. Why it’s called Set 2. Under the original RFS law — the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 — Congress specified exact biofuel blending volumes only through 2022. After that point, the law requires the EPA to determine volumes itself based on several factors. Those post-2022 EPA-determined standards are commonly called the “Set” rules:Set 1 — covered 2023–2025 biofuel volumesSet 2 — will establish volumes for 2026–2027 What the rule actually determines. The Set 2 rule establishes the required volumes for several fuel categories:• Total renewable fuel• Advanced biofuel• Biomass-based diesel• Cellulosic biofuel Refiners and fuel importers must blend these fuels or purchase Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) to comply. Why the rule matters. The decision directly affects multiple agricultural and energy markets:• Soybean oil and canola oil demand (biodiesel/renewable diesel feedstocks)• Corn demand for ethanol• RIN credit prices• Biofuel plant margins and refinery compliance costs For agriculture — especially soybean and corn producers — the rule is critical because higher blending targets typically increase feedstock demand, while lower targets can depress crush margins and biofuel production. Why OMB meetings are happening now. Before EPA finalizes the rule, it undergoes White House regulatory review at the Office of Management and Budget. During that review, outside stakeholders — farm groups, biofuel producers, refiners, and fuel marketers — can request meetings to present their views. That’s the process underway now. Key point: The Set 2 rule will effectively determine the size of the U.S. biofuels mandate for 2026–2027, making it one of the most consequential policy decisions for corn, soybean oil, biodiesel, and renewable diesel markets over the next two years.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Markets today: Asian equities advanced for the first time since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, showing signs of recovery in markets roiled by the sudden attack. Haven asset gold received fresh demand, while U.S. and European futures edged lower. The possibility of a protracted war is roiling markets with Brent oil rising past $84 a barrel, bringing its advance since the beginning of the conflict to 16%. Gold and silver extended gains amid concerns the conflict could be drawn out. Treasuries were a touch weaker.

—Equities yesterday:

Equity Index	Closing Price March 4	Point Difference from March 3	% Difference from March 3
Dow	48,739.41	+238.14	+0.49%
Nasdaq	22,807.48	+290.79	+1.29%
S&P 500	6,869.50	+52.87	+0.78%

—Fed Beige Book signals soft but stable economy

Agriculture facing mixed conditions

The Federal Reserve’s February 2026 Beige Book shows modest economic growth nationally, with the farm sector largely flat overall — pressured by low crop prices, drought risks in parts of the country, and rising input costs, but supported by strong livestock markets and government support payments.

Key national takeaway: Economic activity expanded slightly to moderately in seven districts, while five districts reported flat or declining activity.

Major themes across the economy:

•Consumer spending: Slight increase but uneven; lower-income consumers pulling back.

•Manufacturing: Improved modestly with growth in eight districts.

•Labor markets: Mostly stable hiring with modest wage gains.

•Prices: Continued moderate increases, with tariffs cited as a cost driver in many regions.

• Agriculture: Conditions mostly flat nationally, with regional stress points.

Overall outlook: contacts expect slight to moderate growth in the coming months, though uncertainty remains elevated.

What the Beige Book says about the U.S. agriculture sector. Agriculture appears in several regional reports, and together they describe a sector experiencing uneven conditions — strong livestock markets in some regions, but weak crop prices, drought, and cost pressures in others.

Midwest and Corn Belt: Farm income steady but margins tight

(Chicago Federal Reserve District)

Contacts across major row-crop states reported farm income in 2026 is expected to be roughly the same as 2025.

Key themes

• Crop prices: Mixed — Corn prices declined somewhat. Soybean and wheat prices rose modestly.

•Government payments: Trade-related support programs boosted farm income.

•Input costs: Fertilizer and other inputs remain high and continue to worry producers.

Farm financial stress signals. Some operators reported:

• Selling crops from storage to pay operating bills or service debt.

• Slow sales of farm machinery, leaving dealer lots full.

• Livestock sector strength

Animal agriculture is holding up better:

• Cattle and hog prices increased.

• Dairy prices rose, helped by strong beef demand for dairy calves.

Plains and Southwest: Drought and low crop prices weigh on producers

(Dallas Federal Reserve District)

The report highlights significant stress in parts of the Southern Plains.

Major issues

• Worsening drought conditions increasing concern among farmers and ranchers.

• Low crop prices weighing heavily on producers.

• Government assistance insufficient to offset losses in some cases.

Livestock markets

• Cattle prices remain elevated, but drought conditions are limiting herd expansion.

Trade disruptions

• A ban on Mexican cattle imports is hurting meatpackers, forcing some facilities to cut operations.

Dairy sector

• Low wholesale milk prices are creating challenges for producers.

Producer sentiment

• Farmers reported high uncertainty related to trade policy and weather outlooks.

Northern Plains and Upper Midwest: Weak agricultural conditions

(Minneapolis Federal Reserve District)

The Beige Book reports that agricultural conditions remained weak overall in the region.

Contributing factors include:

• Lower crop profitability.

• Persistent input costs.

• Financial stress among some producers.

Western states: Agricultural activity stable

(San Francisco Federal Reserve District)

Agriculture in the western district was described as stable overall, though employment in some agricultural businesses declined through attrition without replacement.

This reflects a sector holding steady but not expanding significantly.

Big picture for the U.S. farm economy

1. Crop producers facing margin pressure

Across several districts:

• Low commodity prices

• High fertilizer and insurance costs

• Uncertain trade policy

These factors are compressing farm margins.

2. Livestock sector providing support. Strong cattle and hog prices are helping offset crop weakness in some regions.

3. Weather risks increasing uncertainty. Drought conditions — especially in the Southern Plains — are emerging as a key risk for 2026 production.

4. Government payments remain important. Farm income in some regions is being supported by trade-related assistance and subsidy programs.

Bottom Line: The Beige Book paints a picture of a farm economy that is stable but fragile:

• Flat farm income overall

• Crop profitability under pressure

• Livestock markets strong

• Weather and policy uncertainty high

In short, the agricultural sector is not contracting broadly, but regional stresses — particularly drought and low crop prices — could intensify in 2026 if conditions worsen.

AG MARKETS

—Middle East war threatens Brazil’s beef exports

Conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupts Gulf shipping routes, raising logistics costs and putting up to 40% of Brazil’s beef trade at risk

Brazil’s beef industry is warning that the expanding Middle East conflict could disrupt as much as 30% to 40% of the country’s beef exports, primarily due to shipping and logistics disruptions tied to the Persian Gulf.

According to the Brazilian Association of Beef Exporters (ABIEC), the Middle East directly accounts for about 10% of Brazil’s exported beef volume — roughly 250,000 tonnes annually. However, the region plays a much larger role in the global logistics network. Gulf ports such as Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates serve as critical transshipment hubs for cargo bound for Asia, including China — the largest importer of Brazilian beef.

ABIEC president Roberto Perosa warned the situation could become severe if the conflict persists. Brazil exported about 3 million tonnes of beef in 2025, and in a worst-case scenario the war could disrupt the movement of as much as 1 million tonnes of that volume.

Shipping disruptions are already emerging.

• Some vessels carrying Brazilian beef are waiting offshore because they cannot dock at Gulf ports.

• Several shipping companies have refused to accept new cargo contracts to the region.

• Others are imposing “war surcharges” of about $4,000 per container, dramatically raising export costs.

Perosa said those added costs make many shipments commercially unviable, while vessels stranded at sea continue burning fuel and raising operational expenses.

The problem extends beyond the Middle East market itself. Much of Brazil’s meat exports to Asia rely on stopover logistics through Gulf ports, where cargo is transferred to other vessels or shipped overland to regional markets. If those hubs remain inaccessible, exporters could lose access to key Asian destinations.

Industry leaders say there are no immediate alternative markets capable of absorbing the potentially displaced supply, raising fears of oversupply in Brazil’s domestic cattle sector. Analysts and meatpacking executives have suggested the industry may have to slow cattle slaughter rates if export demand weakens significantly — a move that could reduce sector revenues and pressure cattle prices.

The conflict is also affecting Brazil’s poultry sector. Ricardo Santin, president of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), said companies are attempting to redirect chicken shipments originally destined for Middle Eastern markets to buyers in Africa and Asia to avoid routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint.

Industry officials warn that geopolitical tensions — rather than sanitary or production issues — are now emerging as one of the biggest risks to Brazil’s livestock export sector in 2026.

—Brazil sorghum exports to China expected to accelerate in second half

New Chinese market access and expanding Brazilian production could boost shipments once the second-crop harvest arrives

Brazil’s sorghum exports to China are expected to gain momentum in the second half of 2026, as new market access and rising production begin to translate into larger trade flows, according to industry participants.

For now, shipments remain limited because Brazil is in its off-season and domestic supplies are tight. Exporters are competing with livestock feed users and grain-based ethanol producers for available sorghum, constraining export volumes during the first half of the year.

July forward timeline. Gabriel Cordeiro, managing director in Brazil for trading company Hang Tung — one of the world’s largest sorghum traders handling 2.5 million to 3 million metric tons annually — said exports should begin increasing once Brazil’s second-crop harvest progresses. “It’s currently the off-season, so export volumes will be limited,” Cordeiro told Reuters. He added that the most favorable export window will likely begin “from July onward,” when new supplies enter the market.

China’s role could become increasingly important for Brazil’s sorghum sector. Beijing authorized ten Brazilian companies to export the grain in November 2025 as part of its effort to diversify suppliers during trade tensions with the United States. China typically imports between 6 million and 9 million tons of sorghum annually, providing a potentially significant outlet for Brazilian producers.

Brazil’s sorghum production is already expanding. The country is expected to harvest about 6.7 million tons in the 2025-26 season, nearly 10% higher than the previous crop, according to Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab). Output has more than tripled over the past five years.

The crop is also benefiting from growing demand from Brazil’s grain-based ethanol industry, which increasingly uses sorghum as a feedstock. Industry officials say stronger Chinese demand could further improve market liquidity for producers, similar to how China transformed Brazil’s soybean and corn markets.

Exports are only beginning to emerge. Brazil shipped its first sorghum cargo to China since 2014 in January, though the shipment totaled just about 25 tons, likely a test cargo by a small importer. Meanwhile, a 32,000-ton shipment to Morocco is expected in early March, which alone will exceed Brazil’s entire 2025 export total of just 105 tons.

Despite the early progress, exporters say regulatory and procedural issues still need to be resolved before trade scales up. Additional Brazilian companies are awaiting export authorization from China, and industry officials expect approvals to expand as bilateral trade develops.

Market participants remain optimistic that once Brazil’s harvest arrives and approvals expand, China could emerge as a major buyer of Brazilian sorghum, opening a new growth channel for the country’s rapidly expanding crop.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract Month	Closing Price March 4	Difference from March 3
Corn	May	$4.43 3/4	-2 3/4 cents
Soybeans	May	$11.69 1/2	-1 cent
Soybean Meal	May	$309.950	-$4.80
Soybean Oil	May	63.58	+77 points
SRW Wheat	May	$5.68 1/4	-5 3/4 cents
HRW Wheat	May	$5.72 1/2	-5 3/4 cents
Spring Wheat	May	$6.09 1/4	-4 cents
Cotton	May	64.16 cents	+12 points
Live Cattle	April	$238.35	+$4.225
Feeder Cattle	March	$363.925	+$6.725
Lean Hogs	April	$97.075	+$1.325

FARM POLICY

—House Ag Committee advances Farm Bill 2.0

Bipartisan vote sends the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 to the next stage, though Democrats criticize the bill as inadequate for farmers and nutrition programs.

The House Ag Committee early Thursday approved what lawmakers are calling the “skinny” farm bill — formally the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 — by a 34–17 vote, marking the first major legislative step toward reauthorizing U.S. farm policy. The panel rejected a Democratic alternative that included about $18 billion in farm assistance while delaying funding cuts to states administering the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

All Republicans supported the measure, joined by seven Democrats: Jim Costa (D-Calif.), Sharice Davids (D-Kan.), Don Davis (D-N.C.), Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.), Adam Gray (D-Calif.), Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.), and Josh Riley (D-N.Y.).

Thompson urges momentum toward a new farm bill. Committee Chairman GT Thompson (R-Pa.) framed the vote as an urgent step toward delivering long-delayed farm legislation. Thompson thanked members and staff for work across the bill’s 12 titles, saying lawmakers had engaged in extensive debate and amendments over two days of markup. He urged members not to stall progress in pursuit of a perfect bill. “Our farmers, ranchers, and rural communities need a new farm bill, and they don’t need it next year, or next Congress. They need it now,” Thompson said. The chairman emphasized that the committee process allowed members from both parties to offer amendments and refine the legislation — a process he said would continue as the bill moves toward the House floor.

Democrats say bill falls short. Ranking member Angie Craig (D-Minn.) sharply criticized the legislation, arguing it largely preserves existing programs without new investment to address inflation and current farm-sector pressures. Craig described the proposal as a “shell of a farm bill,” saying it fails to address rising input costs, farm income challenges, and food affordability concerns. “I do not know any farmer in Minnesota who is asking for the status quo,” Craig said.

Craig also argued that farmers are still dealing with the impacts of a global trade war and that assistance offered by the administration does not match the scale of need.Craig said leaving nutrition assistance out of the legislation after cutting SNAP in the OBBBA could signal the end of bipartisan farm bills. “For some of us, this is your first farm bill markup, for all of us, it could likely be our last, because by decimating the nutrition title of the farm bill, by splitting the food and farm programs apart, as Republicans have done in this process, you have destroyed the farm bill coalition,” she said before a vote on an amendment to undo SNAP cuts made in the OBBBA. Thompson said the farm-food coalition “broke a long time ago.”

Key issues debated during the markup. During the two-day markup, lawmakers rejected most Democratic amendments and adopted several Republican-backed changes. Notable developments included:

• E15 gasoline policy: Lawmakers discussed whether the committee should weigh in on nationwide year-round sales of E15 gasoline, though the issue technically falls outside the committee’s jurisdiction. Democrats unsuccessfully challenged a point of order against the amendment that kept it from being considered. Thompson said he believes the “time is right” for E15 and it needs to get done, but not via the Ag Committee.

• Prop 12 amendment: Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) introduced an amendment to remove language from the bill that would invalidate California’s Proposition 12, the state law prohibiting the sale of pork produced from sows raised in gestation crates. Costa ultimately withdrew the amendment but said he intends to continue working on the issue. The National Pork Producers Council and American Farm Bureau Federation have sought to overturn Proposition 12, which was upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2023. Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) said there is currently no consensus in either the House or Senate to invalidate the law.
•Pesticide battle: House Agriculture Republicans voted down an effort that would remove federal pesticide labeling preemption from the farm bill.

• EQIP funding shift sparked debate during House farm bill markup. The bill would redirect $1 billion in near-term funding from the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) to help establish other conservation programs — a move Democrats criticized during the committee markup. While the legislation does not alter EQIP funding levels after 2031, it would modestly reduce funding between fiscal years 2027 and 2030 versus levels set in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the budget reconciliation measure used last year to enact President Donald Trump’s legislative priorities. Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) offered an amendment to reverse the funding shift, pointing to the program’s high demand and arguing that conservation funding “is not a slush fund.” Despite the proposed reduction, Chairman Thompson said total EQIP funding would still remain 54% above the January 2025 baseline and exceed the funding levels proposed in the 2024 Farm Bill.

• Hemp regulation delay: Craig introduced language from Jim Baird (R-Ind.) to delay implementation of a hemp rule targeting intoxicating products, though the amendment was ultimately withdrawn.

• USMCA: The committee adopted an amendment from Rep. Adam Gray (D-Calif.) requiring the administration to submit a report assessing how any proposed or implemented modification or revocation of provisions of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement would affect U.S. imports and exports of agricultural commodities.

• Winter wheat cover crop study added. An amendment from Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) would require the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) to study the impacts of using winter wheat as a cover crop that remains in the field through harvest. The study would evaluate potential benefits for soil health, erosion control, water quality, and farm profitability, with NRCS required to report its findings to the House Agriculture Committee. Supporters say the research could help determine whether crops like winter wheat — which provide soil protection while also producing a marketable crop — should qualify more easily for conservation incentives under USDA programs.
• Food aid: Allow states to use up to 20% of funds through The Emergency Food Assistance Program toward the DOD Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Program, as raised by Rep. Adam Gray (D-Calif.)
• A cleared amendment would add sugar yogurt to the Dairy Nutrition Incentives Programs, under language from Rep. Tony Wied (R-Wis.).

•1890s scholarship naming: The committee voted to name the scholarship program at historically Black land-grant universities after David Scott (D-Ga.), the former committee chairman.

•Solar panels on farmland: Members debated whether USDA programs should support installing solar arrays on prime agricultural land.

Of note: Farm bill stakeholders in Congress and the private ag industry are giving GT Thompson a positive shoutout for the process he used in getting the measure through the panel, including garnering seven Democratic votes. Sources say Thompson worked individually with all members of the panel, including Democrats, seeking their input and tried to find a way to accommodate their wish list. This gives the measure bipartisan momentum as it heads to the House floor.

Next step: With committee approval secured, the bill now moves to the House floor, where lawmakers are expected to debate further revisions. Republicans argue the legislation keeps the farm bill process moving after years of delays. Democrats warn the measure may struggle to gain broad bipartisan support without stronger investments in farm programs and nutrition assistance. As for the Senate, its farm bill version will have to be different than the House in order to get the eventual 60 votes needed for passage in that chamber.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Thursday: Oil rally extends as Middle East war threatens energy supplies

Shipping disruptions and production cuts fuel market fears of prolonged oil and LNG shortages

Oil prices surged more than 3% Thursday, extending a multi-day rally as the escalating U.S./Israeli war with Iran heightened concerns about major disruptions to global energy supplies.

Brent crude rose $2.44, 3%, to $83.84 per barrel, marking a fifth straight day of gains.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $2.44, 3.27%, to $77.10 as traders continued to price in the growing risk to oil flows from the Middle East.

Markets remain particularly focused on the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass. Iranian attacks on tankers and nearby shipping lanes have intensified fears that the conflict could severely disrupt trade through the passage.

The war entered its sixth day Thursday after Iran launched a new wave of missile strikes on Israel, sending millions into bomb shelters. The escalation followed U.S. military actions that included the sinking of an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka and NATO air defenses intercepting a ballistic missile fired toward Turkey.

Energy markets are also reacting to direct impacts on regional supply. Iraq — OPEC’s second-largest crude producer — has cut output by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day because export routes are blocked and storage facilities are filling. Meanwhile, Qatar declared force majeure on liquefied natural gas exports, warning that normal production levels may not resume for at least a month.

Shipping disruptions are mounting. More than 200 vessels — including oil tankers, LNG carriers and cargo ships — are anchored off the coasts of major Gulf producers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to ship-tracking data cited by Reuters. Hundreds more remain outside the Strait of Hormuz unable to reach ports.

Of note: With the strait effectively constrained and tensions showing few signs of easing, traders say the market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a prolonged supply shock.

China has also begun taking defensive steps. According to industry and trade sources, Beijing has asked companies to suspend signing new refined-fuel export contracts and attempt to cancel shipments already committed — a move that could tighten global fuel markets further if sustained.

Meanwhile, China also asked its largest oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline due to flow disruptions, prompting heating oil, gasoline and gasoil to jump.

—Wednesday: Oil markets hold elevated levels as Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts global supply

Shipping bottleneck, Iraq production cuts and U.S. tanker escort plans keep traders on edge despite flat close

Oil prices ended the session largely unchanged but remained elevated as traders continued to assess the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the disruption to global energy flows.

The Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments — has been effectively closed for five days, sharply restricting tanker traffic. The broader Gulf region accounts for just under one-third of global oil production, magnifying concerns about prolonged supply disruptions.

Supply pressures intensified after Iraq — OPEC’s second-largest producer — reduced output by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day due to storage constraints and blocked export routes. Iraqi officials warned production could fall by as much as 3 million barrels per day within days if export channels remain shut.

In response to the shipping disruption, President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy could begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. The administration is also preparing political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf, while the Pentagon and the Department of Energy are drafting contingency plans to secure tanker passage.

The uncertainty is prompting refiners and governments to seek alternative supply routes. India and Indonesia are searching for replacement cargoes, while some Chinese refineries are cutting runs or advancing maintenance schedules to reduce crude demand until flows stabilize.

Fresh U.S. inventory data added another layer to the market outlook. U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.5 million barrels last week, reaching their highest level in about three-and-a-half years and exceeding expectations for a 2.3-million-barrel build. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 429,000 barrels.

Despite ample global crude supplies — including large volumes held in floating storage — traders expect continued market volatility until shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes and geopolitical tensions ease.

TRADE POLICY

—Court orders reliquidation for some IEEPA tariff shipments

Trade court ruling opens potential pathway for importer refunds after Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs

A judge on the U.S. Court of International Trade has ordered the government to re-liquidate certain imports that were subject to President Donald Trump’s now-invalid tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), potentially allowing affected importers to receive refunds of duties they previously paid.

In a March 4 order, Judge Richard Eaton directed U.S. Customs and Border Protection to liquidate — or re-liquidate — certain entries without applying the IEEPA tariffs, meaning importers could be repaid the difference with interest if the recalculated duty rate is lower.

The ruling applies directly to shipments in a case brought by Tennessee-based Atmus Filtration Technologies. However, it represents the first lower-court order requiring repayment of any IEEPA duties after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs in Learning Resources v. Trump on Feb. 20.

Under U.S. customs law, liquidation is the process by which CBP finalizes the tariff rate on an import shipment — typically about 314 days after entry. Eaton’s order requires CBP to:

• Liquidate any unliquidated entries without the IEEPA duties, and

• Re-liquidate entries that have been processed but are not yet final.

If those recalculations lower the tariff rate, the government must refund the difference with interest. The order does not address shipments that have already reached “final liquidation,” leaving that issue unresolved.

Although the ruling technically covers only one importer’s case, Eaton emphasized that all importers affected by the invalid tariffs should benefit from the Supreme Court decision. He also noted that Chief Judge Mark Barnett has assigned him to oversee the entire slate of refund cases stemming from the overturned tariffs, potentially ensuring consistent rulings.

The decision could shape litigation involving more than 1,000 importer lawsuits seeking refunds of the emergency tariffs, which generated over $100 billion in revenue while they were in effect. A closed hearing in the Atmus case is scheduled for March 6.

CHINA

—China curbs fuel exports, lowers growth target amid war-driven energy risks

Beijing prioritizes domestic fuel supply as Middle East conflict disrupts oil flows and economic strains deepen

China is moving to protect domestic energy supplies and brace for economic uncertainty as the widening Middle East conflict threatens global oil flows and intensifies pressure on Asia’s energy-importing economies. Chinese authorities have ordered the country’s largest oil refiners to temporarily suspend exports of diesel and gasoline, according to people familiar with the directive. Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission told refiners to immediately stop signing new export contracts and attempt to cancel shipments already agreed to, reflecting concerns that prolonged disruptions to Middle East energy flows could tighten regional fuel supplies.

The move is part of a broader effort across Asia to safeguard domestic energy markets as the war between the United States, Israel and Iran threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints.

The energy shock is emerging as China also signals a more cautious economic outlook. Beijing set a growth target of 4.5% to 5% for the year — the most modest goal since 1991 and the first formal downgrade since 2023.

Premier Li Qiang acknowledged mounting economic challenges, saying the country faces “an acute imbalance between strong supply and weak demand,” weakening market confidence and growing risks in key sectors. The government also indicated it will slightly scale back fiscal stimulus after stepping up support during its previous trade conflict with the United States.

Together, the measures highlight Beijing’s efforts to conserve fuel supplies, manage geopolitical risk and shift toward a slower but more sustainable economic growth model amid rising global uncertainty.

—China’s new five-year plan prioritizes food security and farm production

Beijing raises grain targets, backs livestock sectors, and seeks more secure global food supplies

China’s newly unveiled 15th Five-Year Plan, presented Thursday during the country’s annual parliamentary meeting, signals a renewed emphasis on food security, domestic farm productivity, and stable global agricultural supply chains — developments closely watched by global commodity markets.

Higher grain production target. Beijing set a goal of 725 million metric tons of annual grain production by 2030, underscoring China’s effort to strengthen domestic food output as farmland becomes increasingly scarce.

Officials said the target will rely heavily on technology adoption and yield improvements, including advanced seeds, mechanization, and digital agriculture. Expanding acreage is becoming harder due to urbanization and land constraints, making productivity gains the primary path to higher production.

For global grain markets, the move reinforces China’s strategy of reducing dependence on imports where possible, though the country is expected to remain a major buyer of soybeans, corn, and other feed grains.

Continued reliance on imported food supplies. Despite boosting domestic production, Beijing reiterated that China will secure overseas supplies of agricultural commodities to support its food system.

China remains the world’s largest importer of several commodities — particularly soybeans used for livestock feed and cooking oil — and officials stressed the importance of stable foreign sourcing to supplement domestic production.

This policy supports continued Chinese engagement in global agricultural trade, including purchases from major exporters such as the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.

Livestock sector restructuring. The plan also highlighted structural reforms in China’s livestock sector, including:

• Regulating overcapacity in the hog industry, which has faced cycles of oversupply and collapsing prices following herd expansions after African swine fever.

• Policy support for the dairy and beef sectors, both of which have recently been protected by tariffs as Beijing seeks to stabilize domestic producers.

These measures suggest Beijing aims to stabilize livestock markets while protecting domestic production, potentially shaping import demand for feed grains and meat.

Implications for global agriculture. For agricultural markets, the plan reinforces several long-term trends:

• Food security remains a top national priority for China.

• Yield gains and agricultural technology will be central to future production growth.

• Imports will remain critical, particularly for feed and high-protein crops.

• Livestock sector management will influence global demand for feed grains and oilseeds.

Overall, the strategy points to continued strong Chinese influence on global agricultural trade flows, even as Beijing attempts to increase domestic production and stabilize its farm sector.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Daines retirement reshapes Montana Senate race

GOP senator steps aside before filing deadline, endorses U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme as successor

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) announced late Wednesday that he will not seek a third term in the U.S. Senate, abruptly withdrawing from the November ballot just minutes before Montana’s 5 p.m. candidate filing deadline.

The timing of the move immediately reshaped the race for one of the GOP’s safest Senate seats and appeared closely linked to the entry of Kurt Alme, the U.S. attorney for Montana, who filed paperwork to run for the seat at roughly the same time.

In a statement announcing his retirement, Daines endorsed Alme as his preferred successor — signaling a coordinated transition designed to quickly consolidate Republican support behind a single candidate.

Coordinated exit and entry. Daines, 63, had previously been expected to seek re-election. His sudden withdrawal from the ballot just before the filing deadline left little time for other potential candidates to organize campaigns, effectively clearing the path for Alme to emerge as the early GOP frontrunner.

Alme has served twice as U.S. attorney for Montana during the administrations of President Donald Trump and previously worked as Montana’s state budget director. His background in federal law enforcement and state fiscal policy gives him strong ties within both national Republican circles and the state government.

The near-simultaneous announcements raised questions in Montana political circles about whether the move was coordinated to ensure a smooth handoff and avoid a contested Republican primary.

Daines’ Senate legacy. First elected to the Senate in 2014 after serving one term in the House, Daines became a prominent figure in GOP campaign politics, including a stint as chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. In that role, he helped oversee Republican efforts to defend and expand their Senate majority.

Throughout his Senate tenure, Daines has focused heavily on energy development, public lands policy, and trade issues important to Montana’s agricultural and resource sectors. He has also been a consistent supporter of expanding market access for U.S. agricultural exports and reducing federal regulatory burdens on rural industries.

What comes next. With Daines stepping aside and endorsing Alme, the race now turns to whether other Republicans decide to challenge the former U.S. attorney in the primary and whether Democrats mount a serious campaign in the deeply Republican state.

Montana has leaned strongly toward Republicans in federal races in recent years, making the GOP primary likely to determine the next occupant of the seat.

The development adds another notable retirement to the 2026 Senate cycle and underscores how late-breaking decisions — particularly those made close to filing deadlines — can quickly reshape the political landscape.

FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY

—USDA expands SNAP purchase restrictions to four more states

Kansas, Nevada, Wyoming and Ohio receive waivers as the Trump administration advances broader changes to the nutrition program

USDA approved waivers for four additional states to restrict certain purchases under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), bringing the total number of states with such authority to 22.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins signed the waivers Wednesday for Kansas, Nevada, Wyoming and Ohio, allowing the states to bar SNAP recipients from using benefits to buy items such as candy and soda.

The approvals are part of a broader effort by the Trump administration and several Republican-led states to reshape the nutrition program by limiting purchases of what officials describe as low-nutritional-value foods. Supporters argue the changes will better align SNAP with public health goals, while critics say the restrictions could complicate grocery purchases and stigmatize recipients.

Rollins made the announcement during an event at USDA headquarters and also signaled that another significant policy change is close to completion. She said the department expects to soon finalize new SNAP stocking requirements for retailers — rules that determine what foods stores must carry in order to accept SNAP benefits.

The final food stocking rule is still showing as under review at OMB, a step that typically precedes publication in the Federal Register. The forthcoming rule could affect thousands of small retailers that participate in SNAP, particularly convenience stores, by tightening requirements for the variety and availability of staple foods they must stock to remain eligible for the program.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Severe thunderstorms expected for portions of the southern to central Plains today, expanding eastward into portions of the Midwest on Friday… …Favorable conditions for the spreading of wildfires over the southern High Plains… …Wintry weather for the central/northern Rockies and portions of central New England tonight… …Temperatures will be well above average from the Great Plains to much of the eastern U.S. today and Friday.

Ag Intel

Farm Bill 2.0 Clears House Ag Panel

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