Farmers: Trump/Rollins Farmer Aid Insufficient for Current Situation

Fed day as markets await direction ahead | Greer tries to make sense of China soybean purchase commitment timeline

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Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 5
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 5

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Today’s Updates:

TOP STORIES

— USDA teases ‘major’ MAHA move as Rollins, Kennedy prepare joint reveal

— Greer clarifies timing of China soybean pledge amid lawmaker scrutiny

— Farm-state Republicans push back on Rollins’ ‘golden age’ vision for agriculture

— Farm aid falls short as trade losses mount for U.S. producers

— Tariff-driven slump forces Deere to slash tractor output at Iowa flagship

— USTR signals oral-only USMCA Review briefing, prompting transparency fight
     on Capitol Hill

— CFTC accelerates catch-up schedule for delayed trader position data

— U.S. backs Japan after Chinese radar lock incident
 

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: U.S. equity futures are slightly lower while global stocks are mixed

— Equities yesterday

— FOMC preview: Why forward guidance & dot plot matter more than the cut itself
 

AG MARKETS

— 2026 global meat trade: Beef and pork stall as chicken sets new records

— Agriculture markets yesterday
 

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Wednesday: Oil prices stabilize as markets eye Fed decision, Ukraine peace signals

— Tuesday: Oil slides as oversupply fears outweigh diplomacy and Fed anticipation

— SAF bill seeks to restore lost incentives after tax credit cut
 

TRADE POLICY

— USTR Greer defends tariff strategy as senators press on China, rare earths,
     and farm fallout

— Trump’s tariff bet faces mounting strain as White House rushes to contain fallout
 

CHINA

— China: A new global shock wave
 

CONGRESS

— House pushes ‘minibus’ spending package ahead of Christmas recess

— House panel moves toward reviving AGOA as trade preferences lapse
 

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Atmospheric river and heavy rain continue across the
    Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies

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Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Dec. 10, 2025

UP FRONT— USDA MAHA move: Rollins, Kennedy and Oz will unveil a “major” MAHA announcement that could link farm programs, nutrition rules and federal health spending more tightly to health outcomes.— China soybean pledge timing: USTR Greer says China’s 12 MMT soybean commitment is tied to the growing season, not calendar year, exposing mixed administration messaging and ongoing uncertainty.— Rollins ‘golden age’ pushback: Farm-state Republicans say cheap-food policy and volatile global markets mean farmers will still need federal support despite Rollins’ vision of phasing out aid.— Farm aid falls short: Trump’s $12 billion farm package offers a financial lifeline but covers only a fraction of producers’ trade- and price-related losses, according to farmers and economists.— Deere cuts output: Tariff-driven farm stress and weak machinery demand are forcing Deere to slash production and warn of more layoffs at its flagship Iowa tractor plant.— USMCA review fight: USTR plans to brief Congress orally on its USMCA review recommendations, drawing sharp criticism from Sen. Wyden and raising transparency concerns ahead of the 2026 review.— CFTC report catch-up: After the shutdown, CFTC is accelerating its schedule and now expects to have COT trader-position data fully current with the Dec. 29 report.— U.S. backs Japan vs. China: Washington condemned Chinese radar “locks” on Japanese jets and reaffirmed support for Tokyo as lawmakers urge lower U.S. tariffs to help Japan counter Beijing’s coercion.— Equities today: U.S. stock futures are slightly lower as investors await the Fed’s rate decision and Powell’s press conference, which could determine whether the rally extends.— Equities yesterday: The Dow and S&P 500 slipped while the Nasdaq eked out a gain, reflecting cautious trading ahead of today’s Fed outcome.— FOMC preview: Markets expect a 25 bp cut, but Sevens Report says the real market driver will be Fed guidance and the dot plot on 2026 easing.— 2026 global meat trade: USDA sees beef and pork exports stagnating amid tight supplies and disease pressures while chicken output and trade hit new records led by Brazil and China.— Ag markets yesterday: Corn rallied on friendlier USDA exports, soybeans and products fell, wheat was mixed, and cattle and hog futures moved mostly lower.— Oil Wednesday: Crude prices steadied as traders balanced Fed rate-cut expectations, shifting U.S. inventories and uncertain Russia-Ukraine peace prospects.— Oil Tuesday: Brent and WTI fell again on oversupply worries, restored Iraqi output and expectations of a sizeable 2026 surplus despite ongoing Russia-Ukraine diplomacy.— SAF bonus-credit bill: New bipartisan legislation would layer a bonus tax credit and longer 45Z timeline to revive stalled investment in sustainable aviation fuel projects.— Greer tariff hearing: At a Senate spending hearing, Greer defended tariffs and China strategy amid questions on rare earths, Russian oil sanctions, farm retaliation and consumer inflation.— Trump tariff strain: A $12 billion farm bailout and rising prices highlight the growing gap between Trump’s promises of tariff-led revival and emerging economic and political costs.— China ‘second shock’: NYT reports China is redirecting tariff-displaced exports and even factories into developing countries, undercutting local industries and stoking job losses and resentment.— House ‘minibus’ push: House appropriators are trying to assemble a small pre-conferenced FY26 spending package before Christmas as a Jan. 30 funding deadline approaches.— AGOA renewal effort: Ways & Means will mark up a three-year AGOA extension with retroactive benefits, though competing timelines and Senate uncertainty cloud the final path.— NWS outlook: An atmospheric river brings heavy rain to the Pacific Northwest and Rockies, while a strong clipper threatens heavy snow and high winds in the interior Northeast. TOP STORIES —USDA teases ‘major’ MAHA move as Rollins, Kennedy prepare joint revealHealth, food and farm policy expected to converge as administration signals next phase of Make America Healthy initiative USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are set to make what the administration is billing as a “major announcement” this morning, a move that could mark a significant expansion of the Make America Healthy Initiative (MAHA) into food and agricultural policy. According to a USDA media advisory, the announcement will be delivered at 10 a.m. ET alongside Mehmet Oz, the newly installed administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services — an unusual lineup that signals the initiative may link farm production, nutrition policy and federal health spending more closely than before. While the administration has not disclosed details, the presence of both HHS and CMS leadership alongside USDA has fueled speculation that the announcement will go beyond messaging and into concrete policy changes. What could be announced. Several possibilities are being discussed across agriculture, food and health policy circles: Nutrition-linked farm policy changes. The administration could unveil incentives or pilot programs aimed at boosting domestic production of foods tied to improved health outcomes — such as fruits, vegetables, pulses or minimally processed proteins — potentially aligning crop support or USDA procurement with MAHA goals. SNAP, school meals or dietary guidance shifts. A joint USDA/HHS move could involve revisions to federal nutrition standards, school meal guidelines or SNAP eligibility and incentives, particularly around sugar, ultra-processed foods or seed oils — long-standing priorities of Kennedy and MAHA advocates. Health-driven food labeling or standards. The announcement could preview new labeling initiatives, voluntary standards or regulatory reviews targeting additives, pesticides or processing practices, an area where Kennedy has pushed for more aggressive federal oversight. Medicare and Medicaid food-as-medicine pilots. Mehmet Oz’s participation has raised expectations of CMS-backed programs that integrate food prescriptions, medically tailored meals or nutrition interventions into Medicare and Medicaid — potentially sourcing food through USDA-supported supply chains. Interagency MAHA task force or framework. The administration may formalize MAHA through a cross-agency structure linking USDA, HHS and CMS, setting the stage for coordinated rulemaking and funding decisions later in the year. Why it matters. Any MAHA initiative that reaches into agriculture would have wide implications for farmers, food manufacturers and commodity markets, particularly if federal health dollars begin influencing what crops are encouraged, purchased or promoted. It would also mark a notable philosophical shift — tying farm and food policy more directly to health outcomes rather than production volume alone. The event timing suggests the announcement could serve as a policy marker rather than a fully fleshed-out rule, with details to follow through agency guidance or pilot programs in 2026. For now, USDA is signaling that MAHA is moving from rhetoric into implementation — and that agriculture will play a central role in how the administration defines “healthy” going forward. —Greer clarifies timing of China soybean pledge amid lawmaker scrutinyUSTR says 12-million-ton commitment applies to the growing season, not the calendar year, highlighting discrepancies within the administration’s messaging U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told lawmakers that China’s commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans applies to the growing season rather than the calendar year, a distinction that differs from how the deal was described in a White House fact sheet. Appearing before the Senate Appropriations Commerce Subcommittee, Greer addressed questions from Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), acknowledging confusion among farmers and lawmakers over the timing of the pledge. “It’s for the growing season,” Greer said. “So thank you for highlighting that. We’ve heard from a couple of farmers — they wanted to know about that discrepancy. And it is a discrepancy.” Greer said the administration is closely tracking Chinese purchases, monitoring sales “nearly on a daily basis” through contacts in Asia and USDA reporting. So far, he said, China has purchased roughly 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans. “We think they’re on track through the growing season to do this,” he added, stressing that soybeans and other agricultural commodities are areas “where China should be buying from us.” The comments appear to conflict with statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has said the purchases would run through February and that China was on pace to meet that timetable. Greer also faced no direct questions about whether the still-unfinished U.S./China agreement includes penalties if purchase commitments are not met — an issue that remains unresolved. Upshot: The differing explanations from senior officials underscore lingering uncertainty for U.S. agriculture, as the administration itself labels the timing of China’s soybean purchases a “discrepancy” still in need of clarification. Note: More on Greer’s testimony is in the Trade Policy section.  —Farm-state Republicans push back on Rollins’ ‘golden age’ vision for agricultureSenators say cheap-food policy and global markets — not Washington — will determine whether farmers can wean off aid As USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins touts a vision of a coming “golden age for farmers,” key farm-state Republicans are signaling deep skepticism that U.S. agriculture can soon move beyond government support without a fundamental shift in food policy — or a major jolt from global markets. Rollins, unveiling a new round of farm assistance this week, framed the payments as a bridge to a future in which producers no longer rely on federal checks. The Trump administration’s goal, she said, is an agricultural economy where farmers “can farm to feed their family and sell their products,” rather than produce with government aid in mind. That aspiration, however, collides with longstanding political realities, senators said — chief among them the U.S. commitment to keeping food prices low for consumers. “You’re always going to see the federal government involved in farming because of the policy that our country has — as most other countries in the world — to have cheap food,” Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) told reporters this week. Fischer argued that calls to end farm aid often ignore the trade-offs embedded in U.S. agricultural policy. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa,) echoed that view, saying that farm profitability hinges far more on commodity prices than on rhetoric from Washington. In his view, the only plausible path to eliminating support payments would be a sustained surge in corn and soybean prices — something policymakers have limited ability to engineer. “The only way that governments will be able to end support to farmers is if corn and soybean prices rise substantially,” Grassley said. And the catalyst, he added, is more likely to come from outside the U.S. than from any administration’s policy agenda. “A drought in China or India or Brazil or Argentina is going to play a bigger role than the secretary of agriculture [or] the president of the United States can play in getting prices up so it’s profitable,” Grassley said. The comments highlight a familiar tension in farm policy debates: administrations of both parties often promise to reduce reliance on subsidies, while lawmakers from agricultural states emphasize that volatility, global competition, and consumer price sensitivity make government involvement unavoidable. For now, even as Rollins paints a longer-term picture of independence from federal aid, farm-state Republicans appear to be bracing for a future that looks much like the past — one where market shocks, not policy visions, ultimately determine whether farmers can stand on their own.—Farm aid falls short as trade losses mount for U.S. producersFarmers welcome Trump’s $12 billion package as temporary relief, but warn it covers only a fraction of losses tied to low prices and trade disputesFalling short of need. U.S. farmers say President Donald Trump’s newly announced $12 billion aid package will provide short-term relief but falls far short of offsetting the financial damage caused by low commodity prices, rising input costs and lost export markets stemming from trade disputes, according to a Reuters report.The farmer loss price tag. Farmers and agricultural economists estimate that producers of nine major crops — including corn, soybeans, wheat and peanuts — face losses of roughly $35 billion to $44 billion this year. While the aid is expected to help farmers finance the next planting season, industry groups and lenders describe it as a stopgap rather than a solution to a weakening farm economy. “This support will serve as a lifeline for those simply trying to make it to next year,” National Farmers Union advocacy chief Mike Stranz told Reuters. “But it is just a lifeline, not a long-term solution.”The pressure is especially acute for soybean growers after China halted U.S. soybean imports for much of the year, cutting off sales during the peak export season. The American Soybean Association estimates the aid will cover only about one-quarter of soybean losses, calling the assistance “plugging holes and slowing the bleeding,” Reuters reported. Quote of note: “I think that the assistance program will help just as I think the North Dakota programs will help. None of them are going to make farmers whole.” – Justin Sherlock, president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association on federal payments and state loans for farmers.Administration officials have framed the payments as a bridge until broader farm-support changes take effect under Trump’s tax and spending law, the One Big Beautiful Bill, which raises reference prices that trigger safety-net payments beginning in late 2026. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the goal remains stronger markets rather than long-term reliance on government checks, though she acknowledged the immediate need for assistance.Even with the new package, federal payments to farmers are expected to approach $40 billion this year, driven by disaster and economic aid. Still, economists warn that higher reference prices alone will not resolve mounting debt and liquidity problems. Surveys cited by Reuters show more than half of farmers plan to use federal aid to pay down debt rather than invest, underscoring concerns that the current assistance merely delays, rather than reverses, financial strain across U.S. agriculture. Farm Bureau’s John Newton appears to be trying to help the Trump administration out when he notes: “When combined with Congressionally approved assistance from the American Relief Act, approximately $42 billion will be available to help farmers recover a portion of the billions in losses sustained over the last few years related to natural disasters, negative margins from high input costs & historically low crop prices, as well as trade-related challenges. This bridge support was a huge priority for @FarmBureau  until OBBBA arrives” And then there is this: Other industries are upset that they aren’t getting the same relief as farmers… and farmers are upset they aren’t getting enough… not a good look for farmers, according to some observers.—Tariff-driven slump forces Deere to slash tractor output at Iowa flagshipTrade tensions under Donald Trump’s tariff regime are deepening stress on U.S. farmers — and prompting Deere & Co. to cut production and brace for further job losses Deere says demand for its large tractors and combines in the U.S. has dropped sharply. Farmers, squeezed by weak crop prices, rising input costs, and trade uncertainty, are postponing expensive equipment purchases. As a result, Deere has slashed production — at its flagship tractor plant in Waterloo, Iowa, output is now roughly half what it was two years ago, according to the Financial Times. The company is warning of more layoffs in 2026 after several recent rounds of job-cuts. Why this is unfolding: the broader pressures on farmers. The tariff conflict — especially with China — disrupted agricultural trade, reducing demand for U.S. soybeans and corn. As export demand collapsed, crop prices plunged: soybeans are down about 40%, and corn roughly 50% from their 2022 peaks. With farm incomes squeezed, many producers are deferring or cancelling plans to buy new equipment — hurting Deere’s sales. Meanwhile manufacturing costs for Deere have risen: tariffs on steel and aluminum have pushed up prices for raw materials, imposing a heavier cost burden on the company itself. Financial impact & outlook: Deere’s net income fell 29% to around $5 billion for the year to Nov. 2. The company expects a continued downturn: sales of large agricultural equipment may drop another 15–20% in fiscal 2026. Deere also estimates that tariff-related headwinds will hit it to the tune of about $1.2 billion pre-tax in 2026, roughly double this year’s impact. Implications for farmers and the broader farm economy. Many U.S. farmers — facing depressed commodity prices and uncertain export markets — are holding off on upgrading aging equipment or buying new machinery. Some are reverting to older tractors or used equipment, further reducing demand for new units. Industry watchers say recovery will likely depend on restored access to global markets and greater predictability in trade policy. Of note: When the company released its earnings Nov. 28, Chairman and CEO John May said the company looked for 2026 to be the “bottom of the large ag cycle.” He also noted,  “While ongoing margin pressures from tariffs and persistent challenges in the large ag sector remain, our commitment to inventory management and cost control, coupled with expected growth in small agriculture & turf and construction & forestry, positions us to effectively manage the business and seize emerging opportunities as market conditions begin to recover.”—USTR signals oral-only USMCA Review briefing, prompting transparency fight on Capitol HillWyden presses for written report ahead of January deadline as agency prepares for high-stakes 2026 trade review The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative plans to deliver its statutorily required recommendations for the upcoming U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review orally rather than in writing, according to a Democratic congressional aide — an approach that has sparked immediate pushback from Senate Finance Committee leaders. Under the USMCA Implementing Act, USTR must submit a report to Congress at least 180 days before the treaty’s mandated trilateral review, which begins July 1. That sets a Jan. 2 deadline for the report, which is supposed to assess how the agreement is functioning, lay out the United States’ precise recommendations for the review (including whether to extend the pact), summarize any prior efforts to resolve underlying concerns, and convey the views of USTR advisory committees. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, criticized the decision to provide only an oral briefing, arguing that Congress and the public deserve a written document. Wyden said lawmakers passed the USMCA with the expectation of a transparent, collaborative review process and warned that trade policy “is too important to be done in the dark.” He also accused the Trump administration of falling short on transparency — echoing long-standing concerns he has raised across administrations. USTR has informed the Finance Committee of its oral submission plan but did not immediately comment publicly. The stakes of the review are significant. Next year, the United States, Canada, and Mexico must decide whether to extend USMCA for another 16 years or allow it to lapse toward expiration in 10 years, with annual consultations continuing if no extension is reached. The review also opens the door to proposed changes to the agreement. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has suggested that full withdrawal could also be considered. In preparation, USTR has gathered more than 1,500 written comments and held three days of oral testimony from businesses, labor groups, academics, and other stakeholders. While many urged preserving the agreement, some — particularly labor leaders — called for substantial renegotiation. Greer addressed the issue this week during a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing, where Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) emphasized the need for ongoing communication with Congress and stakeholders. Greer pledged regular consultations, saying both he and his staff would be available throughout the process. —CFTC accelerates catch-up schedule for delayed trader position dataRegulator says Commitments of Traders reports will return to current status sooner than expected after shutdown The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said it is speeding up the release of Commitments of Traders (COT) reports that were delayed during the recent government shutdown, moving more quickly than initially planned to bring the data back up to date. Under the original timeline, the agency projected it would not be fully current on COT reporting until a Jan. 23, 2026, release covering the week ended Jan. 20, 2026. The CFTC has now revised that schedule, saying the report to be issued Dec. 29 — covering the week ended Dec. 23 — will bring the agency fully current on COT data. —U.S. backs Japan after Chinese radar lock incidentWashington criticizes Beijing’s actions as Tokyo rejects claims of adequate warning The United States has publicly sided with Japan after Chinese fighter jets illuminated Japanese aircraft with radar during drills near Japan, calling the move destabilizing and reaffirming the strength of the U.S./Japan alliance. Tokyo rejected Beijing’s claim that sufficient advance notice was given, with Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi saying the warning lacked key details needed to avoid danger. China countered by blaming Japan and linking the incident to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remarks on potential Japanese action in a Taiwan contingency. The episode comes amid a broader uptick in Chinese — and joint Chinese/Russian — military activity near Japan, which Tokyo says represents an escalating show of force and a growing security concern. Of note: Senior House Democrats are urging President Trump to further lower U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods, arguing Japan is facing escalating economic and military coercion from China that threatens both its economy and U.S. strategic interests. In a Dec. 8 letter, Reps. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) and Ami Bera (D-Calif.) cited recent remarks by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Taiwan and Japan’s security, saying they triggered Chinese retaliation ranging from import suspensions and tourism restrictions to pressure on key industries and provocative military activity near Okinawa. While the U.S. and Japan earlier struck a deal setting a 15% U.S. tariff rate on Japanese goods, the lawmakers say more relief is needed to help Tokyo withstand Beijing’s coercive tactics. Additional tariff cuts, they argue, would provide immediate economic support to Japan and signal U.S. resolve in backing allies targeted for exercising their sovereign rights.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: U.S. equity futures are slightly lower while global stocks are mixed after a quiet night of news as today’s Fed decision comes into focus. The main market focus will be the Fed today with the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) both scheduled for the mid-afternoon. Investors will be eyeing the Fed with hopes of a not-too-hawkish-cut, and if delivered, the S&P 500 could make a run at all-time highs while anything that disappoints the doves could weigh heavily on stocks in afternoon trade. We have more on the FOMC possibilities below.

—Equities yesterday: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  Dec. 9	Point Difference  from Dec. 8	% Difference  from Dec. 8
Dow	47,560.29	-179.03	-0.38%
Nasdaq	23,576.49	+30.58	+0.13%
S&P 500	6,840.51	-6.00	-0.09%

—FOMC preview: Why forward guidance and the dot plot matter more than the cut itself

Markets are bracing for a December rate cut, but investors are far more focused on whether the Fed signals an ongoing easing cycle — or hints at a pause that could jolt year-end momentum.

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to end its December meeting, markets are entering what the Sevens Report calls one of the most consequential Fed decisions of the year — not because of the expected rate cut itself, but because of what policymakers say about what comes next.

According to the Sevens Report, a 25-basis-point cut is widely anticipated and largely priced in by markets. Instead, the real market risk lies in whether the Fed delivers what investors fear most: a “hawkish cut,” where rates are lowered but forward guidance or projections signal the easing cycle is nearing an end.

Why this meeting is unusually important. The Sevens Report argues that markets care far less about whether the cut happens in December or January than about confirmation that the Fed intends to keep cutting rates into 2026. A signal that policymakers are preparing to pause would undermine one of the core pillars supporting the equity rally.

Three elements of the meeting will determine the market reaction:

The rate decision: A 25-basis-point cut is expected. No cut would represent a clear hawkish surprise.

Forward guidance language: Investors are closely watching whether the Fed alters the wording in its statement. Currently, policymakers note they are considering “additional adjustments” to rates. A shift back to earlier language — emphasizing only the “extent and timing” of future adjustments — would suggest a pause and likely qualify the decision as a hawkish cut.

The dot plot: The Fed’s rate projections may be the most market-moving element. In September, the median projection showed one additional cut in 2026. Removing that cut would be hawkish, while adding more would signal a dovish tilt.

Base case: A non-event with modest upside. The Sevens Report’s base case is straightforward: a 25-basis-point cut, no change to forward guidance, and a dot plot that continues to show one cut in 2026. That outcome would likely produce only a muted market reaction, as it is already reflected in asset prices.

Still, given favorable seasonality and a market inclined to move higher, equities could grind upward modestly. Cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary stocks would likely outperform, while defensive sectors lag. Treasury yields and the dollar would likely remain little changed, and commodities could see a mild bounce as the Fed reaffirms it is in a rate-cutting cycle.

Dovish surprise: Fuel for a year-end rally. A more bullish scenario would emerge if the Fed cuts rates, leaves forward guidance unchanged, and signals more than one cut in 2026. In that case, The Sevens Report expects equities to rally sharply, potentially pushing the S&P 500 to new all-time highs.

Under a dovish surprise, cyclical sectors and AI-related technology stocks would likely lead gains, while Treasury yields and the dollar decline modestly. Commodities — especially gold — could be among the biggest beneficiaries as investors price in stronger growth and easier financial conditions.

Hawkish risk: Volatility returns. The downside risk is clear. If the Fed skips the cut, signals a pause through forward guidance, or removes the remaining 2026 cut from the dot plot, markets could sell off sharply. The Sevens Report warns that equities could fall more than 1%, led lower by cyclical sectors as investors reassess growth and liquidity assumptions.

In that scenario, Treasury yields would likely jump, the dollar would strengthen, and commodities — including gold — would come under pressure. Such an outcome would directly challenge the narrative of an ongoing easing cycle that has helped drive markets higher in recent months.

Bottom Line: The December FOMC meeting is less about the cut itself and more about confirmation that the Fed remains committed to easing into 2026. As the Sevens Report makes clear, the difference between a benign outcome and a volatility shock will come down to a few carefully chosen words — and a handful of dots.

AG MARKETS

—2026 global meat trade: Beef and pork stall as chicken sets new records

USDA’s latest world outlook shows shrinking exportable supplies for red meat, while poultry surges on competitive pricing and expanding production

USDA’s Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report released Dec. 9, paints a sharply diverging picture for global meat markets in 2026. Exportable supplies of beef and pork are forecast to contract, weighed down by tighter production cycles, disease constraints, and market-access frictions. By contrast, chicken meat shipments are projected to hit a new all-time high, powered by Brazil and China’s expanding, cost-competitive output.

The data — drawn from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s global database — underscores widening structural differences among protein sectors as producers confront feed-cost normalization, herd rebuilding, animal disease pressures, and shifts in major importers’ demand.

Beef: Tight supplies across major exporters push global trade down 1%. Global beef production is projected to fall 1% to 61.0 million tons in 2026 as notable declines in Australia, Brazil, China, the EU, and the United States outweigh gains in India, Mexico, New Zealand, and Uruguay.

Key drivers shaping the downturn:

• Australia & Brazil — the world’s largest exporters — begin herd-retention phases, reducing cow slaughter and exportable supplies after record 2025 output.

• U.S. production is forecast down 1%, constrained by fewer cattle available for feedlots and compounded by U.S. restrictions on Mexican cattle imports due to screwworm concerns.

• China’s beef output is expected to decline as herd rebuilding slows.

• Mexico sees a 5% production jump as live-cattle trade restrictions divert animals into domestic slaughter channels, increasing beef availability and boosting exports.

• Global beef exports are forecast to drop 1% to 13.5 million tons, driven mainly by lower shipments from Australia, Brazil, and the United States.

The United States — which benefited from robust 2024–25 import demand — will see:

• Imports rise 2% to 2.5 million tons due to tight domestic supplies and lower tariffs on Brazilian and Australian beef.

• Exports fall 4% to 1.1 million tons amid firm Australian competition and continued lack of access to China.

Pork: EU production declines again, limiting global supplies. Global pork production in 2026 is projected to be effectively unchanged at 117.2 million tons, as growth in Vietnam, Brazil, and Mexico is offset by another year of contraction in the European Union, where costs and new ASF discoveries strain producers.

Trade shifts are again shaped by China, though far less dramatically than during the African swine fever shock of 2019–21. Pork exports among major suppliers are projected to fall 1% to 10.3 million tons as EU shipments drop 7% — the largest decline of any major exporter.

Highlights:

• Brazil continues its steady rise, with exports forecast up 4% to 1.8 million tons.

• Canada edges up 1% as it diversifies away from China.

• U.S. exports rise 1% to 3.2 million tons, supported by competitive pricing and growing Central American demand — plus new access to Malaysia.

• China’s import needs are stabilizing near pre-ASF norms, knocking the global pork market into a far more mature, supply-limited equilibrium.

Chicken: The only meat category still growing — and setting records. Chicken stands alone: global production is forecast to rise 2% to 109.6 million tons, led by China, Brazil, the United States, and the EU. Consumer preference for competitively priced protein and mild feed-cost relief continue to accelerate poultry’s global ascent.

Key forces behind the surge:

• China continues rapid expansion of white-broiler and hybrid production, now dominating its domestic market.

• Brazil benefits from lower input costs, a weaker currency, and full recovery of market access to major buyers including China and the EU — all with no HPAI detections in commercial plants since May 2025.

• U.S. production is expected to hit a record 22.0 million tons, though exports remain constrained by lingering HPAI-related restrictions and intense competition from Brazil.

• Global chicken exports will climb 3% to 14.7 million tons — the third consecutive annual record— with nearly all new volume coming from Brazil and China.

• China is expanding market share through aggressive pricing, favorable financing, and surging shipments to Russia, Southeast Asia, Africa, the EU, and the UK.

Export Growth Rates (USDA, % Change Year-over-Year)

Year	Beef	Chicken	Pork	Total
2017	6	3	0	3
2018	6	3	2	3
2019	7	5	11	7
2020	-1	0	21	6
2021	1	2	-3	0
2022	5	2	-10	-1
2023	1	0	-8	-2
2024	8	1	2	4
2025	5	4	1	4
2026	-1	3	-1	1

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract  Month	Close Dec. 9	Change vs  Dec. 8
Corn	March	$4.48	+4 1/4¢
Soybeans	January	$10.87 1/4	-6 1/2¢
Soybean Meal	January	$301.30	-$5.00
Soybean Oil	January	51.02¢	-16 pts
Wheat (SRW)	March	$5.34 1/2	-1/4¢
Wheat (HRW)	March	$5.27	+1/4¢
Spring Wheat	March	$5.76 1/2	+5 1/4¢
Cotton	March	63.86¢	+18 pts
Live Cattle	February	$226.95	+27 1/2¢
Feeder Cattle	January	$335.50	-15¢
Lean Hogs	February	$81.875	-52 1/2¢

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Wednesday: Oil prices stabilize as markets eye Fed decision and Ukraine peace signals

Crude edges higher after recent losses, balancing rate-cut expectations, inventory data, and supply risks

Oil prices steadied Wednesday after sharp losses a day earlier, as investors weighed diplomatic developments around the Russia-Ukraine war and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. Brent crude rose 7 cents to $62.01 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 10 cents to $58.35, recouping a fraction of the roughly 1% decline seen in the prior session.

Market attention remained fixed on monetary policy, with traders widely expecting the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point to support a cooling U.S. labor market. Lower interest rates could bolster oil demand by stimulating economic growth, but optimism was tempered by concerns that global supply could outpace consumption.

On the supply side, industry data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories falling by 4.78 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks jumped by 7 million barrels and distillate inventories rose by 1.03 million barrels. Official government inventory figures were due later Wednesday.

Geopolitics also stayed in focus. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv and its European partners would soon present the U.S. with refined proposals for a peace plan, raising the prospect that any deal could eventually lead to the easing of sanctions on Russian energy exports and the return of additional oil supply to the market. ING analysts cautioned that while the market is already moving deeper into a projected glut, Russian supply remains a key uncertainty.

Adding to supply pressure, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for U.S. oil production in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day to a record average of 13.61 million bpd, while trimming its 2026 outlook by 50,000 bpd to 13.53 million.

—Tuesday: Oil slides as oversupply fears outweigh diplomacy and Fed anticipation

Brent and WTI fall for a second session as restored Iraqi output, Russian export risks, and surplus projections keep pressure on prices

Oil prices extended losses Tuesday as markets balanced slow-moving Russia–Ukraine peace efforts, rising supply, and anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Brent settled at $61.94, down 55 cents, while WTI closed at $58.25, off 63 cents, following Monday’s sharp drop after Iraq restored production at the West Qurna-2 field.

Traders remain focused on diplomacy after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met European leaders in London and Kyiv prepared a revised peace proposal for Washington. Any deal easing restrictions on Russian exports could add barrels to an already well-supplied market, though skepticism persists about Moscow’s willingness to compromise. Fresh Russian strikes on Ukraine’s power grid — cutting electricity to roughly half of Kyiv — highlighted the fragility of talks.

Supply concerns dominated sentiment. Oil-on-water volumes have surged since mid-August, adding more than 2.5 million barrels per day to floating storage. While discussions continue in the West about replacing the Russian crude price cap with a maritime services ban, analysts say U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are currently limiting a steeper price slide.

Attention now turns to near-term data and policy signals. The IEA’s December report (due Dec. 11) is expected to underscore a sizeable surplus in 2026. U.S. inventory data from the API arrives Tuesday, with government figures Wednesday; early estimates point to a crude draw alongside builds in gasoline and distillates. Markets are also bracing for a widely expected quarter-point Fed rate cut on Wednesday — supportive for demand over time, but unlikely to offset immediate oversupply concerns.

—SAF bill seeks to restore lost incentives after tax credit cut

Lawmakers move to revive investment in sustainable aviation fuel by layering a new bonus credit on top of the weakened 45Z program

U.S. lawmakers are pushing new legislation to revive momentum in the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market after recent tax changes sharply reduced incentives and rattled investors.

The bipartisan proposal — the Securing America’s Fuels (SAF) Act — would create a new “bonus credit” of 35 cents to $1.75 per gallon for qualifying SAF producers, according to a statement from bill sponsor Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.). The bonus would effectively restore support levels that developers say are necessary to finance large-scale SAF facilities.

The bill is a direct response to changes made earlier this year to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, which under the tax law championed by President Donald Trump reduced the maximum SAF credit from $1.75 per gallon to $1.00 per gallon. That cut placed SAF on par with biomass-based diesel, despite SAF’s higher production costs and more limited infrastructure.

Industry groups and financiers have warned that the reduction stalled final investment decisions on multiple SAF projects, particularly those tied to ethanol, soybean oil, and other agricultural feedstocks. Airlines, which face mounting pressure to decarbonize long-haul flights where electrification is not viable, have also flagged concerns about future supply. “America is on the cusp of the next great biofuels revolution,” Flood said. “Sustainable aviation fuel will help lower emissions while expanding domestic markets for our nation’s farmers.”

Beyond the bonus credit, the SAF Act would extend the 45Z credit through 2033, four years beyond its current expiration at the end of 2029. Developers have repeatedly argued that the existing timeline is too short to support multibillion-dollar refinery investments, especially given construction and permitting timelines.

The bill has drawn bipartisan support from Reps. Troy Carter ( D-La.), Sharice Davids (D-Kan.), and Tracey Mann ( R-Kan.), who described SAF as a “game-changer” for both climate policy and rural economic development. Supporters cite estimates showing SAF could reduce lifecycle greenhouse-gas emissions by up to 80% compared with conventional jet fuel, while supporting tens of thousands of jobs across agriculture, refining, and logistics.

Politically, the proposal reflects a broader effort to recalibrate clean-energy incentives after the Trump-backed tax overhaul prioritized fiscal restraint and reduced technology-specific credits. By framing SAF as both a climate solution and a farm-state economic driver, sponsors are betting the bill can bridge divisions between environmental goals and rural development priorities.

Whether the SAF Act advances will depend on cost estimates and how it fits into broader tax and budget negotiations — but the message from lawmakers is clear: without stronger incentives, the U.S. risks ceding leadership in aviation fuels just as global demand begins to take off.

TRADE POLICY

—USTR Greer defends tariff strategy as senators press on china, rare earths, and farm fallout

At a Senate Appropriations hearing, USTR Jamieson Greer faced bipartisan scrutiny over tariffs, China negotiations, and agricultural retaliation, arguing that leverage on Beijing is working even as lawmakers warned of higher prices, market uncertainty, and national-security tradeoffs 

Below is a digest of the hearing, highlighting China-related exchanges and pairing lawmaker questions with Ambassador Greer’s responses:

1. China trade strategy and tariff leverage

Key theme: Whether tariffs are delivering results with China or simply redirecting Chinese exports elsewhere.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.): Kennedy pointed to China’s roughly $1 trillion global trade surplus, arguing Beijing simply rerouted exports away from the U.S. toward Africa and other markets. He questioned whether U.S. policy is truly constraining China or just shifting global imbalances.

Greer said China’s export-driven model is long-standing and not new, but argued that the U.S. bilateral deficit with China is falling, including this year. He maintained tariffs have forced Beijing back to the table and created leverage the U.S. previously lacked.

2. China, rare earths, and national security tradeoffs

Key theme: Whether the administration compromised export-control policy to stabilize trade with Beijing.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.): Van Hollen challenged Greer over the pause of the “Affiliates Rule,” which would have tightened export controls on subsidiaries of Chinese firms like Huawei. He argued the rule was delayed following President Trump’s meeting with President Xi and asked bluntly what the U.S. received in return.

Greer said China’s threat to control rare-earth exports globally created an acute risk to U.S. supply chains. The administration chose stability over escalation while the U.S. works to re-industrialize and diversify sources. He emphasized that rare earth flows have resumed, and that maintaining a functional trade relationship with China is preferable to “blowing up the global economy.”

3. China and Russian oil sanctions

Key theme: Whether Congress should expect White House support for sanctions targeting China over Russian energy purchases.

Sen. Kennedy pressed Greer on the likelihood President Trump would back legislation imposing massive sanctions on countries, including China, that buy Russian oil, warning that such a move could undermine fragile trade talks with Beijing.

Greer said the administration is conceptually supportive of the sanctions bill and has provided technical input, but stressed the measure is framed as Russia-focused rather than China-specific. He acknowledged the political reality that advancing sanctions while negotiating with China is delicate and promised to seek further White House clarity.

4. Agricultural trade and China retaliation

Key theme: Whether China is following through on agricultural purchase commitments.

Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb) welcomed the November China deal but questioned whether Beijing will meet its pledge to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the current season, followed by 25 million metric tons for three years.

Greer clarified the commitment applies to the growing season, not the calendar year, and said China is currently around 3 million metric tons. He said USTR and USDA monitor purchases almost daily and that President Trump raises the issue directly with President Xi. Agriculture, Greer argued, should remain the strongest pillar of the U.S.-China trade relationship.

5. China, overcapacity, and critical minerals

Key theme: Reducing dependence on China-dominated supply chains.

Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) warned that Chinese dumping and subsidies have hollowed out U.S. and allied production of critical minerals and rare earths, creating strategic vulnerabilities.

Greer agreed this is central to re-industrialization, citing government and private investment—such as the Mountain Pass rare earth mine—to rebuild domestic capacity. He said China may not change its model, so the U.S. must act defensively by coordinating with allies and investing at home.

6. tariffs, inflation, and Consumer Costs

Key theme: Whether tariffs raise prices for American families.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) & Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore): Democrats repeatedly argued tariffs function as taxes on consumers, citing estimates of $2,000–$4,900 per household annually and pointing to disrupted small businesses and delayed investment.

Greer disputed those estimates, saying tariff costs are often absorbed by exporters, especially in non-market economies like China. He acknowledged limited price effects for goods the U.S. does not produce—such as coffee or bananas—but said tariffs broadly remain an effective enforcement tool.

7. AGOA, Africa, and China’s growing influence

Key theme: Whether U.S. trade policy in Africa is enabling China.

Sen. Kennedy argued China has expanded its African trade footprint while AGOA remained unchanged, questioning whether the program now benefits Beijing more than Washington.

Greer said the administration supports a one-year AGOA reauthorization paired with reform, explicitly citing China’s growing dominance in Africa as evidence the program needs modernization rather than automatic renewal.

Bottom Line: Across the hearing, China dominated the debate — from rare earths and export controls to soybeans, sanctions, and Africa. Greer repeatedly argued that tariffs and managed trade are restoring U.S. leverage and reducing dependence on Beijing. Lawmakers from both parties countered that the strategy risks higher prices, market instability, and strategic concessions that could weaken U.S. credibility over time.

—Trump’s tariff bet faces mounting strain as White House rushes to contain fallout

A $12 billion farm aid package underscores the widening gap between the president’s promises of a tariff-driven revival and the economic realities now challenging households, businesses, and rural America 

President Donald Trump spent much of the year insisting that his sweeping tariff strategy would rebuild American industry and lower costs for consumers. But as New York Times correspondent David E. Sanger writes, the administration is now “on damage control,” forced to shore up key constituencies as price pressures and trade retaliation escalate.

At the White House on Monday, the president unveiled $12 billion in emergency relief for farmers, a group battered directly by the tariff war — particularly China’s extended boycott of U.S. agricultural goods. The aid, Trump argued, was a sign that his long-term strategy was taking hold. Yet the move highlighted the immediate economic pain that has accumulated since he declared “Liberation Day” back in April, promising that tariffs would “pry open foreign markets” and bring jobs flooding back.

Inflation, jobs and a stubborn economic reality. Thus far, the effects have diverged sharply from the White House narrative. Sanger notes that tariffs have continued to push prices higher, intensifying public frustration over the cost of living. Inflation ticked up again in September, hovering near 3% — essentially unchanged from the level President Biden left behind.

Manufacturing employment has deteriorated as well, with roughly 50,000 factory jobs lost this year. That decline contributed to the controversial dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief after Trump accused the agency of “rigged” downward revisions.

Meanwhile, China — the core target of Trump’s trade confrontation — is reporting a record global trade surplus, signaling that Beijing is adapting swiftly even as bilateral trade with the U.S. narrows. Evidence that factories are “roaring back” to the United States remains scant.

Promises that don’t add up. Still, Trump insists the tariff program “is working, or will soon,” a refrain Sanger underscores as the president approaches the end of his first year in office. On Monday, he again asserted that tariff revenue was generating “hundreds of billions of dollars,” enough to fund a universal $2,000 tax rebate and perhaps even eliminate income taxes entirely — claims that fall far short of federal revenue math. Tariff receipts this year total about $250 billion, compared with $2.66 trillion in annual individual income tax collections.

The president also portrayed the farm aid as a “bridge payment” financed by tariff income (which his USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins had to correct, clarifying the funding comes from the Commodity Credit Corporation), designed to tide producers over until Chinese purchases resume under a commitment he says he secured from President Xi Jinping.

Farmers, equipment makers and a spreading squeeze. Economists argue that the agricultural crisis reflects deeper distortions created by the tariff regime. Scott Lincicome of the Cato Institute told Sanger that depressed crop prices are directly linked to China’s year-long boycott, while fertilizer and machinery costs remain inflated by tariffs. “You’ve heard Caterpillar and John Deere complain,” Lincicome noted — a point Trump himself referenced Monday, promising to help heavy-equipment manufacturers by directing tariff revenues their way and rolling back environmental rules he claimed had over-complicated machinery.

But Lincicome emphasized the broader issue: a “truly insane complexity” introduced into global commerce by the constant churn of tariff proclamations, exemptions, reversals and new conditions. “Americans just hate chaos,” he told Sanger. “No one wants this constant churn.”

A policy patchwork with no clear endgame. Sanger highlights the dizzying policy swings that now characterize the White House’s economic approach: proposals for 50-year mortgages, lifting tariffs on coffee, waiving national-security restrictions on chip exports to China in exchange for a 25% revenue cut for the U.S. government.

Vice President JD Vance defended the administration last week, arguing it would be “preposterous to fix every problem caused over the last four years in just 10 months.” But the accumulating interventions — and now the $12 billion farm rescue — show the administration grappling with the side effects of a strategy still waiting for its promised payoff.

Key question: As Sanger’s reporting makes clear, the question now is whether the “bridge” the administration has constructed for farmers — and for the broader economy — leads somewhere, or simply postpones a reckoning with the costs of Trump’s tariff gamble.

CHINA

—China: A new global shock wave

How China’s export flood is reshaping developing economies

The New York Times reports that a “second China shock” is rippling across the developing world — this time not because Western companies outsourced production to China, but because China, shut out of the U.S. market by President Trump’s tariffs, is redirecting its vast export engine toward emerging economies. The consequences, NYT journalists Katrin Bennhold and Alexandra Stevenson warn, are likely to be profound, destabilizing, and politically volatile.

A shock born of tariffs — and of overcapacity. As the New York Times notes, Trump’s steep tariffs this year cut Chinese exports to the U.S. by nearly 20 percent. But China’s enormous manufacturing surpluses didn’t disappear — they were rerouted. This week, China’s trade surplus officially surpassed $1 trillion, the largest in history.

With weaker domestic demand and limited access to the U.S. market, Beijing has turned aggressively to developing countries, flooding them with low-cost goods and even relocating factories to their soil. Economist Brad Setser told the Times: “China’s exports have been growing three times faster than global trade. That can’t happen without factories elsewhere closing down.”

Factories shutter, jobs vanish. The pattern is already stark:

• Indonesia: More than 300,000 garment and textile workers have lost their jobs in two years as Chinese-made clothes and fabrics dominate the market. A single factory closure in Solo put 10,000 people out of work overnight.

•Thailand: Its central bank warns of worsening pressure from “flooding of Chinese exports,” driven by industrial overcapacity in China.

• Africa: Imports from China hit $60 billion in September, already surpassing all of 2024.

Impact: The Times reports that for many of these countries — far more dependent on manufacturing than the U.S. or Europe — the losses strike at the core of economic stability.

Exporting the factories themselves. In a shift from the early 2000s, China is no longer just exporting finished goods — it is exporting production capacity:

The social fuse: Youth, joblessness, and anti-China Sentiment. Many countries now absorbing China’s export wave have:

• Young, underemployed populations

• Shrinking manufacturing sectors

• Long histories of ethnic and economic tension involving Chinese communities

The Times highlights growing unrest:

• In Indonesia, youth-led protests have erupted over rising unemployment.

• In Vietnam, anti-China riots in 2014 targeted foreign-owned factories.

• Across Southeast Asia, latent resentment toward ethnic Chinese businesses remains a political fault line.

CONGRESS

—House pushes ‘minibus’ spending package ahead of Christmas recess

Appropriators seek pre-conferenced FY 2026 deal as Jan. 30 funding deadline looms

House appropriators are racing to assemble a limited “minibus” package of Fiscal Year 2026 spending bills in hopes of moving legislation before lawmakers leave for the Christmas recess at the end of next week. The effort comes as Congress faces a Jan. 30, 2026, deadline to replace the current continuing resolution and avert a government shutdown.

House Appropriations Interior and Environment Subcommittee Chair Mike Simpson (R-Id.) said the package could include Transportation-HUD, Commerce-Justice-Science, and Interior measures, though the final lineup will depend on what House and Senate negotiators can agree to bundle together. Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said he plans to meet with Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) this week to seek agreement on a pre-conferenced package that can clear both chambers. Cole emphasized he does not want to advance a House-only bill that would later require renegotiation.

In the Senate, appropriators have been attempting to move a broader package that includes Defense and Labor-HHS-Education — along with Transportation-HUD, Commerce-Justice-Science, and Interior — but have been stymied by the lack of unanimous consent. Lawmakers also note that without agreed-upon topline spending numbers, it remains especially difficult to advance the largest and most politically sensitive bills, including Defense and Education.

With nine appropriations measures still unfinished, lawmakers acknowledge it is far from certain Congress will complete the remaining spending bills before the current CR expires at the end of January.

—House panel moves toward reviving AGOA as trade preferences lapse

Ways & Means advances three-year extension amid competing proposals and calls for stability

The House Ways & Means Committee is set to take its most consequential step yet toward renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act, marking up legislation Wednesday to extend the trade-preference program for three years through 2028. The bill, offered by Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), would also retroactively restore duty-free treatment for eligible imports that entered the U.S. after AGOA expired at the end of September.

The move comes as Congress weighs competing timelines for renewal. The White House has backed only a one-year extension, while Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) has introduced a separate two-year measure that has yet to advance in the Senate. Senate Finance Committee members have said they are still searching for a viable legislative vehicle, underscoring uncertainty around AGOA’s path despite broad bipartisan support.

Alongside AGOA, Ways & Means will also consider extending the Haiti Economic Lift Program through 2028. Industry groups applauded the twin renewals, arguing they support millions of U.S. jobs, bolster exports of cotton and textiles, and preserve U.S. economic influence in Africa amid rising geopolitical competition. Trade advocates continue to press Congress to secure at least a multi-year extension soon, warning that short-term fixes risk further disruption just as inflation and strategic rivalries intensify.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Atmospheric river and heavy rain continue across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies with snow for higher mountain elevations… …A strong clipper system will bring the threat of heavy snow and high winds across the interior Northeast and Appalachians.