Fertilizer & Commodity Markets Jolt as Iran War Scrambles Global Supply Chains; End in Sight
Update on Trump/Xi summit | Slow-going for California and E15 | Potential strike at JBS Greeley plant
| LINKS |
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 6 (Interview with USDA Deputy Stephen Vaden)
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 6 (Vaden interview)
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 10, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Fertilizer and commodity markets jolt as Iran war scrambles supply chains: Oil’s spike reversed, but disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are still driving up fertilizer, metals and grain market risks.
— Trump says Iran war is nearly finished: President Donald Trump said U.S. operations have moved far faster than expected and signaled the conflict may be nearing an end.
— Oil whipsaws on Iran war headlines: Crude briefly surged above $119 before plunging as traders reacted to signs the conflict may de-escalate and reserves could be released.
— U.S. weighs strategic oil reserve release: Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the administration is considering a coordinated SPR sale with allies to calm markets.
— Ethanol expansion push targets fuel prices: The Renewable Fuels Association urged the administration to expand E15 and unlock unused ethanol capacity to ease gasoline prices and boost corn demand.
— More OMB meetings on EPA’s RFS rule: Stakeholder sessions continue to build around EPA’s Set 2 RFS rule, signaling the rule remains under intense review.
— U.S./China diplomacy watch: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to meet in Paris ahead of a possible Trump/Xi summit.
— Iran war complicates Trump/Xi agenda: The conflict is likely to push energy, sanctions, shipping stability and soybean purchases to the center of summit talks.
— Trump visit to China reportedly limited to Beijing: A report says the late-March trip will stay in Beijing because of timing and security concerns.
— Farm Bureau warns of fertilizer supply shock: AFBF says Hormuz disruptions could squeeze fertilizer supplies, raise farm input costs and fuel broader food inflation.
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Global markets rally on Trump comments: Stocks moved higher on hopes the Iran conflict could end soon, though Iran’s rhetoric kept investors cautious.
— Equities yesterday: Major U.S. indexes posted gains on March 9, led by the Nasdaq.
— Tariff revenue shifts the budget picture: CBO said stronger tariff and tax receipts narrowed the FY 2026 deficit compared with a year ago, even as spending and interest costs rose.
GAS PRICES & OUTLOOK
— Gas prices jump after Iran strikes: U.S. gasoline and diesel prices have climbed sharply since the war began, with analysts warning more increases could follow if disruption persists.
AG MARKETS
— Potential strike at JBS Greeley plant: UFCW Local 7 says workers could walk out March 16 as a contract fight escalates at one of the nation’s largest beef plants.
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grain and livestock markets were mixed on March 9, with corn, soybeans and cattle lower.
NEW WORLD SCREWWORM
— USDA and Army Corps advance Texas sterile fly facility: The new Edinburg, Texas, plant will expand U.S. capacity to fight New World Screwworm and reduce reliance on foreign facilities.
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Today: Oil drops on hopes war may end soon: Crude fell sharply Tuesday as traders priced in possible de-escalation and potential government action to stabilize supply.
— Tuesday: Oil surged on Hormuz disruption, then pulled back: Monday’s rally reflected Gulf supply fears, though later headlines on Russia and reserves triggered a reversal.
— California moves toward E15, but rollout will take time: E15 is now legal in California, but CARB rulemaking, fire-safety approvals and station upgrades mean broad adoption is still years away.
TRADE POLICY
— U.S. beef regains market share in Colombia: Exports rebounded strongly in 2025 after Colombia lifted temporary restrictions tied to avian influenza concerns.
CHINA
— China exports post fastest gain in four years: A sharp rebound in shipments to ASEAN, Europe and emerging markets offset weaker exports to the United States.
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Georgia special election heads toward likely runoff: Seventeen candidates are competing for Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former House seat, with a second round expected.
FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY
— SNAP retailer stocking rule still under OMB review: New stakeholder meetings suggest the final Trump administration rule may not be released until next week.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
— China summons Maersk and MSC: Beijing’s move adds to uncertainty around Panama Canal control, shipping geopolitics and war-related supply-chain strain.
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Severe storms and flash flooding threaten parts of the Midwest and Plains, while the Pacific Northwest stays wet and much of the eastern U.S. remains unusually warm.
| TOP STORIES—Fertilizer and commodity markets jolt as Iran War scrambles global supply chainsOil rally reverses on strategic reserve talk, but fertilizer, metals and grain markets surge amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions A dramatic surge in oil prices at the start of the week quickly reversed, underscoring how the war with Iran is destabilizing global commodity markets and economic expectations. Crude futures initially jumped above $100 per barrel as traders feared major supply disruptions tied to the conflict and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. But prices later fell sharply after reports that the world’s largest economies were prepared to release oil from strategic reserves and after President Donald Trump suggested the military campaign against Iran may be nearing completion (see next item). Despite the pullback in crude, the conflict continues to ripple across other commodity markets — particularly fertilizers — that depend heavily on Persian Gulf supply routes. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit point not only for oil and liquefied natural gas but also for key industrial and agricultural inputs. Tankers avoiding the region have triggered supply concerns for fertilizers and related commodities. The Middle East and North Africa account for nearly half of global urea trade, with most shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the war began, the price of urea in Egypt — a regional benchmark — has surged more than 50%, according to Argus Media. Sulfur markets are also tightening. About 45% of global sulfur production comes from the Middle East, largely as a byproduct of oil refining. Sulfur prices delivered to China have climbed roughly 15% since the conflict began, reflecting concerns about disruptions to supplies used to produce sulfuric acid, phosphate fertilizers, copper and EV batteries. These pressures are already spilling into agricultural markets. Wheat futures briefly approached a two-year high Monday as rising fertilizer costs raised concerns about global crop production and food-price inflation. The turmoil is also reshaping energy-related investment bets. Some traders are wagering that relatively low U.S. natural gas prices could boost the competitiveness of North American fertilizer producers if Middle East supplies remain constrained. Industrial metals are reacting as well. Aluminum futures in London surged to their highest level in nearly four years as smelters in the Gulf region — which account for about 9% of global output — face potential shipping disruptions for both alumina imports and aluminum exports. Together, the developments highlight how the Iran conflict is sending shockwaves far beyond oil markets, raising risks for fertilizers, food prices and key industrial materials across the global economy.—Trump says Iran war nearly finished, ahead of initial timelinePresident claims U.S. military has largely dismantled Iran’s capabilities after one week of operations President Donald Trump said Monday that the U.S. military campaign against Iran is “very complete,” signaling the White House believes the conflict may end far sooner than originally expected. In comments reported by CBS News, Trump said the United States has already neutralized much of Iran’s military capacity after roughly one week of operations. “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump told CBS senior White House correspondent Weijia Jiang. The president said Iran’s military infrastructure has been heavily degraded, asserting the country has lost key operational capabilities. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force,” Trump said. Timeline far shorter than expected. Trump added that U.S. forces are “very far” ahead of the original military timetable, which had been estimated at roughly four to five weeks. According to the president, Iranian forces have already expended most of their offensive capabilities. “They’ve shot everything they have to shoot, and they better not try anything cute, or it’s going to be the end of that country,” Trump said, referring to Iran’s military. The comments are the clearest indication yet from the White House that officials believe the conflict is nearing its conclusion. No message for Iran’s new leader. Trump also said he has no message for Mojtaba Khamenei, who was reportedly elevated over the weekend as Iran’s new leader following upheaval inside the regime. “I have no message for him. None, whatsoever,” Trump said when asked about the leadership change. Strategic messaging from the White House. The president’s remarks appear aimed at reinforcing the administration’s narrative that the campaign has been swift and decisive, even as global markets react to the conflict. Energy prices and shipping disruptions tied to the fighting — particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — have already triggered volatility in oil, fertilizer, and agricultural markets. Administration officials have emphasized that those economic effects are expected to be temporary if military objectives are achieved quickly. The timeline Trump described suggests the administration believes the operation could conclude weeks earlier than initially projected, though officials have not yet confirmed any formal ceasefire discussions.—Oil whipsaws as Iran war headlines trigger historic price swingsCrude briefly tops $119 before plunging as traders react to Trump’s signal the conflict may end soon Oil markets experienced one of their most volatile trading sessions on record Monday as prices surged and then sharply reversed amid shifting signals about the war with Iran and the future of global oil supplies. Crude futures initially skyrocketed as traders feared the escalating U.S./Israel military campaign against Iran and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz would choke off global energy supplies. During overnight trading, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped as much as 31%, while Brent crude briefly surged to $119.50 a barrel. However, those gains rapidly evaporated as the day progressed. West Texas Intermediate swung in a roughly $28 range — the widest range since prices briefly turned negative during the depths of the pandemic. Brent settled below $99, down from an intraday high of $119.50, marking the largest-ever drop from an intraday high to a closing price on record. The market’s sharp reversal accelerated in after-hours trading following comments from President Donald Trump, who suggested the U.S. operation against Iran could be nearing completion (see previous item). “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump told CBS News, indicating the campaign was ahead of schedule. Those remarks sparked a dramatic selloff, with WTI plunging more than 10%, pushing prices below the $90 level after earlier surging above $100. Traders are now rapidly reassessing the supply outlook. While tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil flows — remains severely disrupted, expectations of a potential coordinated release of emergency oil reserves by major economies also weighed on prices. The result is a market being driven almost entirely by geopolitical headlines, where each new development in the Iran conflict can trigger massive swings in energy prices and ripple effects across financial and commodity markets.—U.S. weighs strategic oil reserve release amid war-driven price surgeEnergy secretary says coordinated SPR sale with allies under consideration as oil market tightens The Trump administration is considering releasing oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of a coordinated effort with allied nations to calm global energy markets during the ongoing war with Iran, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Monday. Wright told reporters the administration is evaluating a coordinated sale of SPR crude alongside similar releases by other countries as oil prices surge amid supply disruptions tied to the conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Wright said Washington is exploring additional steps to ease global supply, including potentially allowing greater sales of Russian oil currently held in tankers off Asia, though details remain under review. However, Wright made clear that the administration is not considering restrictions on U.S. energy exports as a tool to control domestic fuel prices. Potential coordinated release with G7. U.S. officials believe a joint release of 300 million to 400 million barrels from national strategic reserves could be appropriate if the G7 ultimately agrees to act (about 15 days of oil usage). That would represent roughly 25% to 30% of the combined 1.2 billion barrels held in strategic reserves across major economies. Limits of the U.S. reserve. Despite the discussion, analysts caution that the U.S. stockpile alone cannot fully offset supply disruptions tied to the Persian Gulf, particularly with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz constrained. The U.S. SPR currently holds about 415 million barrels, according to the Department of Energy — only 58% of its authorized capacity of 714 million barrels after several large releases in recent years. As a result, while coordinated reserve releases could temporarily stabilize prices, analysts say they would likely serve as a short-term bridge rather than a full replacement for lost Middle Eastern supply.—Ethanol expansion push targets fuel pricesRenewable Fuels Association urges Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to unlock unused ethanol capacity and expand E15 access to help lower gasoline costs The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) is urging Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to take a series of policy steps aimed at increasing ethanol use in the U.S. fuel supply, arguing the moves could help ease gasoline prices during a period of energy market volatility. In a letter to Burgum (link), the RFA outlined six actions the administration could pursue to accelerate ethanol blending and remove regulatory barriers that have limited the expansion of higher ethanol blends, particularly E15 fuel. The group noted that the U.S. ethanol industry has 18.5 billion gallons of annual production capacity, but current output is operating at only about 91% utilization, leaving roughly 1.5 billion gallons of unused capacity. Ethanol inventories also remain elevated, with 1.11 billion gallons in storage — the second-highest stock level in the past decade. RFA also pointed to ample feedstock supplies. The organization said the current U.S. corn carryover of 2.13 billion bushels could theoretically support the production of an additional 6.2 billion gallons of ethanol, underscoring the sector’s ability to ramp up supply quickly if regulatory barriers were eased. Among the key steps requested:• Emergency EPA waivers to allow E15 sales during the summer driving season.• Elimination of the E15 Misfueling Mitigation Plan requirements, which the industry says add unnecessary compliance costs.• A regulatory determination that E15 is compatible with all fuel dispensers and underground storage equipment.• Safe harbor protections for retailers against liability from misfueling or equipment failures.• Federal assistance to states and local governments to update rules allowing E15 to move through existing fuel infrastructure. The RFA argues that regulatory constraints — particularly the inability to sell E15 year-round, infrastructure compliance rules, and liability concerns for retailers — have slowed adoption of the higher ethanol blend despite available supply. By removing those barriers and encouraging greater ethanol blending, the group contends the administration could quickly expand fuel supply and help offset rising gasoline costs while supporting domestic corn demand and the biofuels sector.Note: The Senate Ag panel will hold a hearing today titled “Increasing Domestic Consumption of U.S.-Grown Agricultural Products,” bringing together farm and commodity organizations to discuss how federal policy can help expand demand for American-produced food, feed, fiber, and biofuels. Biofuel demand — particularly ethanol and biodiesel made from corn and soybeans — is expected to be a major focus of testimony. Agricultural groups have argued that federal fuel policies represent one of the largest drivers of domestic crop demand, particularly through programs tied to the Renewable Fuel Standard and emerging sustainable aviation fuel incentives. Expanding year-round E15 gasoline sales has been a top priority for many Midwestern lawmakers and farm organizations, who contend that higher ethanol blends could significantly increase corn demand while lowering fuel costs for consumers. —Additional meetings scheduled at OMB on EPA’s RFS rule. A growing number of stakeholder meetings are being held at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) regarding the Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Set 2 final rule. Fourteen meetings are now scheduled, including sessions with the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) on March 13, the Renewable Natural Gas Coalition on March 17, and the American Petroleum Institute (API) on March 18. —U.S./China diplomacy watchBessent/He meeting in Paris to preview Trump/Xi summit agenda All eyes in global markets and diplomatic circles are on a scheduled meeting this week in Paris between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, a key economic adviser to President Xi Jinping. The talks are widely seen as a preparatory step ahead of a potential meeting later this month between President Donald Trump and Xi. The Paris meeting is expected around March 14–15, but the official day has not been formally announced and could still shift. The Treasury secretary is expected to press Beijing on several economic and geopolitical priorities central to the Trump administration’s strategy. Among the issues likely to be raised: •Energy realignment: U.S. officials want China to shift a larger share of its crude purchases away from Russia and Iran toward U.S. supplies, a move that would both support American energy exports and reinforce pressure on sanctioned producers. •Agricultural purchases: Washington is also expected to push for expanded Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans, a perennial focal point in bilateral trade negotiations and a key issue for American farmers. •Aviation trade: Additional Chinese orders for Boeing aircraft could be discussed as a way to reduce trade tensions and demonstrate progress ahead of the leaders’ summit. The tone and outcome of the Bessent/He discussions will be closely watched by markets and policymakers as an early signal of whether the Trump/Xi meeting can produce tangible economic agreements or simply stabilize relations amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. For agriculture and commodity markets, any indication that China may increase U.S. soybean purchases would carry particular significance, especially as global supply chains and shipping routes remain strained by conflict in the Middle East and elevated energy prices. Geopolitics complicates the Trump/Xi summitIran war likely to reshape the agenda — energy, sanctions, and stability move to the forefront The expanding U.S./Israeli conflict with Iran is likely to significantly reshape the tone and priorities of the upcoming meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, turning what might have been a trade-focused summit into a broader geopolitical negotiation. Several dynamics will likely influence the discussions: Energy and sanctions pressure on China. China is one of the largest buyers of Iranian and Russian crude, often purchasing discounted supplies that Western sanctions have pushed off traditional markets. With oil prices surging and the Strait of Hormuz largely disrupted, the Trump administration is expected to increase pressure on Beijing to reduce purchases of sanctioned oil. This explains why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reportedly signaling ahead of the summit that Washington wants China to shift crude purchases toward U.S. energy exports. If China were to redirect even a portion of those imports, it would:• Strengthen U.S. energy exports• Undermine Iran’s ability to finance the conflict• Stabilize global oil markets However, China is historically reluctant to align with U.S. sanctions policy, making this a major point of friction heading into the leaders’ meeting. Global economic stability becomes a shared concern. The war has already triggered triple-digit oil prices, shipping disruptions, and volatility across commodities and financial markets. Both Washington and Beijing have incentives to prevent the conflict from causing a global economic shock. For China in particular:• Higher oil prices increase import costs• Hormuz shipping disruptions threaten trade flows to Asia• Market volatility could slow China’s fragile economic recovery That dynamic could create limited common ground between the two powers on maintaining market stability. Agriculture could become part of the geopolitical bargain. The Trump administration is also expected to push China to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural commodities as part of broader trade stabilization. If energy markets remain volatile and shipping routes tighten, China may look to secure reliable food supplies, which could strengthen U.S. negotiating leverage. Analysts say Beijing has likely prepared agreements including increased purchases of U.S. agricultural products and Boeing aircraft, as well as other investment deals. For U.S. agriculture, the war’s indirect effects could include:• Stronger biofuel demand if oil prices stay high• Potentially larger Chinese soybean purchases as part of a diplomatic package• Higher fertilizer and freight costs if Gulf disruptions persist Possible ag sector deliverable: Agriculture is one of the easiest areas for the two sides to reach quick progress, which is why soybeans are again emerging as a likely negotiating lever. China remains the world’s largest soybean importer and historically uses large purchases of U.S. soybeans as a political signal during periods of improving relations.Possible outcomes discussed in policy circles include:• Accelerated Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, sorghum, corn or other commodities• Larger state reserve buying programs• Commitments that mirror earlier Phase One–style commodity targets For U.S. farmers, even modest signals from Beijing could influence Chicago futures markets, especially given the current volatility tied to energy markets and biofuel demand.The summit’s stakes just increased. Before the conflict escalated, the Trump/Xi meeting was expected to focus primarily on trade balances, tariffs, and investment restrictions. Now, the agenda is likely to expand to include:• Energy supply realignment• Enforcement of sanctions on Iran• Stability in global shipping lanes• Commodity and food security Of note: China buys 80% of Iran’s oil exports, and the two countries signed a 25-year cooperation agreement in 2021. From 2019 to 2024, China invested $89 billion directly into the Middle East, according to the Eurasia Group. Last week, Beijing announced that it would send a mediator to the Middle East to try to ease tensions. Beijing has hedged against disruptions to Iranian oil supplies by building substantial oil reserves, creating a dominant renewable energy industry and seeking additional crude from Russia. In short, the Iran war turns the summit from a trade negotiation into a strategic geopolitical meeting between the world’s two largest economies. Bottom Line: The conflict with Iran raises the stakes for the Trump/Xi meeting. Instead of focusing narrowly on trade disputes, the leaders may now be negotiating over energy flows, sanctions enforcement, and global economic stability — issues that will ripple through oil markets, agricultural trade, and supply chains worldwide. —Trump visit to China limited to Beijing, report saysExclusive report cites tight schedule and heightened security concerns An exclusive report from the South China Morning Postsays President Donald Trump’s upcoming trip to China will be limited to Beijing, citing a tight schedule and heightened security concerns tied partly to the Middle East conflict. Sources said U.S. advance teams arrived in Beijing earlier this month and preparations for the March 31–April 2 Trump/Xi summit are in their final stages. Chinese officials had explored adding a second stop, possibly Shanghai, but both sides agreed the visit should remain in Beijing. Security planning has intensified given the ongoing U.S./Israeli war with Iran, with officials saying adding another city would complicate logistics. Despite the tensions, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said this year could be a “big year” for U.S./China relations and stressed the importance of stabilizing what he called the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship. —Farm Bureau warns of fertilizer supply shock from Hormuz disruptionsFarm group urges Trump administration to safeguard fertilizer shipments and prevent a broader food supply and inflation crisis The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is warning that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a fertilizer supply shock that would ripple through U.S. agriculture and food prices. In a letter (link) to President Donald Trump, AFBF President Zippy Duvall urged the administration to take immediate steps to ensure fertilizer shipments can continue moving through the region as the Middle East conflict threatens global supply chains. Duvall wrote that fertilizer markets — like oil — are highly vulnerable to disruptions in maritime shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical corridor for fertilizer raw materials and finished products produced in the Persian Gulf, including urea, ammonia, phosphates and sulfur. Energy production disruptions in the region are also expected to raise natural gas prices — the key input for nitrogen fertilizer — which could further tighten supplies and drive already elevated input costs higher. That comes as many U.S. farmers are already operating with extremely tight margins. AFBF warned that if shipments remain disrupted, the United States could face shortages of critical crop nutrients, leading to lower crop production and renewed inflation pressure across the broader economy. What the Farm Bureau Market Intel analysis shows. AFBF economists released a companion Market Intel report (link) outlining how concentrated global fertilizer production is in the Persian Gulf region and how vulnerable it is to shipping disruptions. Key findings include:• Countries affected by disruptions around the Persian Gulf account for about 49% of global urea exports.• The region also supplies roughly 30% of global ammonia exports, another key nitrogen fertilizer component.• Major fertilizer and feedstock products shipped through the Strait of Hormuz include urea, ammonia, phosphates, sulfur and petroleum-based inputs used in fertilizer manufacturing. Duration of conflict important. Because much of that material travels through a single narrow shipping corridor, a prolonged closure or disruption could significantly restrict global fertilizer supply and push prices sharply higher — similar to what occurred after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Farm Bureau economists warn that such disruptions could hit farmers just ahead of the next planting season, when fertilizer demand typically rises. What Farm Bureau is asking the Trump administration to do. In its letter to President Trump, AFBF laid out seven recommendations designed to stabilize fertilizer supply chains and avoid food production shocks. Among the proposals:1) Provide naval protection for fertilizer shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure safe transit.2) Prioritize fertilizer cargo movement through shipping lanes to prevent delays.3) Use federal financing tools, including those available through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, to help address insurance or financing barriers for vessels carrying fertilizer cargo.4) Coordinate with allies and fertilizer exporters to maintain stable supply chains.5) Monitor fertilizer markets and supply risks to anticipate shortages early.6) Encourage domestic fertilizer production and supply flexibility where possible.7) Work with international partners to keep fertilizer trade flowing during the conflict. Why it matters for U.S. agriculture. The Farm Bureau warning comes as energy prices surge amid the war involving Iran and disruptions to shipping in the Gulf — developments already lifting fertilizer, fuel and freight costs. For U.S. farmers, fertilizer is typically the largest variable input cost, especially for corn and wheat production. A supply disruption could:• Raise fertilizer prices sharply• Reduce fertilizer application rates• Lower crop yields• Increase food price inflation Farm Bureau argues that preventing fertilizer supply disruptions is not only an agricultural concern but also a national security issue, given the potential impact on food production and inflation. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets rallied after President Donald Trump said the war in the Middle East could come to a quick end, lifting investor sentiment. However, hopes for a rapid resolution were tempered by defiant statements from Iran’s military signaling it intends to continue the fight. Wall Street futures moved into positive territory after major North American markets closed higher Monday following Trump’s remarks.
In Asia, Japan +2.9%. Hong Kong +2.2%. China +0.7%. India +0.8%.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.7%. Paris +2.1%. Frankfurt +2.5%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price March 9 | Point Difference from March 6 | % Difference from March 6 |
| Dow | 47,740.80 | +239.25 | +0.50% |
| Nasdaq | 22,695.95 | +308.27 | +1.38% |
| S&P 500 | 6,795.99 | +55.97 | +0.83% |
—Tariff revenue drives shift in federal budget picture
CBO says February deficit matched year-ago levels, but stronger revenues — particularly from tariffs and taxes — reduced the cumulative deficit for the first five months of Fiscal Year 2026
The federal government posted a $308 billion budget deficit in February, roughly matching the same month a year earlier, according to new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Federal receipts totaled $314 billion, while outlays reached $621 billion.
Receipts increased $17 billion compared with February 2025, largely due to a surge in customs duties, which were $19 billion higher than a year earlier. Federal spending rose $18 billion, led by higher payments for Social Security ($10 billion), Department of Defense programs ($6 billion), and interest on the national debt ($6 billion).
Deficit narrows sharply in FY 2026. Despite February’s large deficit, the government’s fiscal position has improved on a year-to-date basis. For the first five months of Fiscal Year 2026, the deficit totaled about $1.0 trillion, $142 billion smaller than during the same period in FY 2025, when the deficit reached $1.147 trillion.
The improvement reflects stronger revenue growth:
• Revenues: up $206 billion
•Outlays: up $64 billion
About two-thirds of the increase in receipts came from stronger individual and payroll tax collections, while tariffs also contributed significantly.
Tariffs become a major revenue source. CBO highlighted a dramatic jump in tariff collections. Customs duties totaled $144 billion during the first five months of FY 2026, compared with $35 billion during the same period in FY 2025. However, the agency noted that some tariff collections ended in late February following a U.S. Supreme Court decision, after which the Trump administration imposed new tariffs on numerous goods from many countries.
Spending pressures still rising. Even with stronger revenue, federal spending continues to climb, particularly in mandatory programs and debt servicing.
Compared with the same period last year:
• Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid spending increased by $104 billion
• Interest payments on the public debt rose $31 billion
CBO said higher interest costs stem from a larger federal debt and elevated long-term interest rates, although declining short-term rates partially offset the increase.
Treasury report still pending. The U.S. Department of the Treasury will release the official February budget results on March 11, which will serve as the government’s formal deficit scorecard. Still, the CBO report underscores two emerging themes shaping the fiscal outlook: surging tariff revenues and rising debt-service costs — a combination that could become increasingly important for federal spending and deficit debates in the months ahead.
| GAS PRICES & OUTLOOK |
—Gas prices jump 50 cents since Iran strikes as oil shock ripples through markets
Fuel costs surge nationwide as Middle East conflict disrupts shipping and pushes crude above $100
U.S. gasoline prices have surged roughly 50 cents per gallon in just over a week, reflecting the rapid impact of the Middle East conflict on global energy markets.
Data from AAA shows the national average price for regular gasoline reached $3.48 per gallon Monday, up from $2.98 on Feb. 26, two days before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran.
Diesel prices have climbed even faster, jumping 23.6% to $4.66 per gallon, compared with $3.77 a week earlier.
The spike is tied largely to the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally carries more than 20% of global oil supplies. Shipping traffic has slowed dramatically as commercial carriers avoid the area amid Iranian threats and attacks on vessels.
Regional price disparities widen. California continues to post the highest gasoline prices at $5.20 per gallon, followed by Washington ($4.63) and Nevada ($4.21).
The sharpest week-to-week increases have occurred in the Midwest and Southeast, according to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan:
•Indiana: +58 cents
•Florida: +57 cents
•Michigan: +55 cents
•Ohio: +55 cents
Only three states still have average prices below $3 per gallon — Kansas ($2.90), Oklahoma ($2.95), and Arkansas ($2.98) — but analysts expect those to disappear within days.
More increases likely if war continues. Energy analysts warn that the current price surge may only be the beginning if the conflict persists. De Haan expects the national average gasoline price to approach $4 per gallon within a month, while diesel could climb to about $5 per gallon. Pantheon Macroeconomics sees gas prices rising to $4 a gallon soon. However, the firm said the labor market is too weak to support a sustained rise in inflation.
Any surge in inflation will be short-lived, the firm said, because the U.S. labor market is too weak to sustain a major spike. “In the near term, the Fed will wait to see if the jump in energy prices has broader consequences for inflation,” wrote Samuel Tombs, the chief U.S. economist at the firm. “The risk of second-round effects, however, is low; higher inflation expectations will be meaningless if employers still hold the cards in wage setting and their customers retrench.”
Tombs said the jobs outlook is likely to get worse in the months ahead, pointing to a few unpromising developments, namely: falling hiring intentions from small businesses; private payrolls, not government, are driving job losses; and weather having little impact on February’s negative jobs print. He said unemployment would rise to around 4.75% this summer, up from current levels of 4.4%. That would open the door to further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve as it becomes clear that unemployment poses a greater threat than inflation, Tombs said.
The pressure stems from the rapid rise in crude oil prices. Brent crude briefly spiked to $119.50 per barrel Monday, the highest level since 2022, before easing after reports that governments are considering steps to stabilize supply.
Strategic reserves under discussion. Finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) held emergency talks Monday about a potential coordinated release of strategic oil reserves to calm markets. Together, the G7 holds more than 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil, including about 415 million barrels in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
White House response. President Donald Trump has downplayed the price surge, arguing the energy shock is temporary and tied to military efforts against Iran. “These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts,” Trump said in a Fox News interview, adding that Iranian naval capabilities had been largely neutralized.
Why it matters. The surge in fuel costs is already rippling across the broader economy — particularly diesel-dependent sectors like agriculture, trucking and fertilizer production. With oil above $100 and shipping routes constrained, analysts warn the conflict could feed inflation pressures across food and commodity markets in the weeks ahead.
| AG MARKETS |
—Potential strike at JBS Greeley plant
Union gives notice for walkout as contract dispute escalates with major U.S. beef processor
United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Local 7 says workers at the JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colo., could strike as early as March 16 after the union issued a seven-day notice ending a temporary contract extension.
Union leaders argue the company’s proposal — including less than 2% average annual wage increases — fails to keep up with Colorado inflation and shifts rising healthcare costs onto workers. UFCW Local 7 President Kim Cordova said the offer effectively amounts to “poverty-level wages.”
JBS counters that its proposal is consistent with the national contract negotiated with UFCW International in 2025, which covers roughly 26,000 workers at 14 U.S. plants and includes higher wages, pensions and long-term financial stability. The company also claims Local 7 has refused to allow employees to vote on the offer.
About 3,800 workers are employed at the Greeley facility, one of the largest beef plants in the United States. JBS said it plans to shift some production to other plants with excess capacity if a strike occurs, while allowing any Greeley employees who choose not to strike to continue working.
The strike authorization vote in February passed overwhelmingly, setting up what could become a significant labor disruption in the U.S. beef processing sector.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price March 9 | Change from March 6 |
| Corn | May | 4.53 3/4 | -6 3/4¢ |
| Soybeans | May | 11.96 1/4 | -4 1/2¢ |
| Soybean Meal | May | 313.50 | -3.70 |
| Soybean Oil | May | 66.10 | -48 points |
| Wheat (SRW) | May | 6.03 1/4 | -13 1/2¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | May | 6.19 3/4 | -3 3/4¢ |
| Spring Wheat | May | 6.46 | +3¢ |
| Cotton | May | 64.62¢ | +42 points |
| Live Cattle | April | 230.15 | -4.425 |
| Feeder Cattle | March | 350.65 | -4.975 |
| Lean Hogs | April | 94.825 | -0.80 |
| NEW WORLD SCREWWORM |
—USDA, Army Corps move forward on Texas sterile fly facility to combat New World Screwworm
New production site in Texas will expand U.S. capacity to eradicate livestock pest and reduce reliance on foreign facilities
USDA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) announced a construction contract with Mortenson Construction to build a new sterile fly production facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas — a key step in the Trump administration’s strategy to combat the New World Screwworm (NWS).
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the project is part of a broader five-point strategy to strengthen defenses against the invasive livestock pest currently threatening parts of Mexico. The facility will expand domestic response capacity and reduce U.S. reliance on foreign production of sterile flies used to control the pest.
The Army Corps of Engineers will oversee the project’s design, engineering, and construction. Officials say the partnership leverages the Corps’ large-scale infrastructure expertise to ensure the facility is built quickly and securely.
The plant will use the Sterile Insect Technique, a long-standing pest-control method in which male screwworm flies are sterilized using irradiation and released into affected areas. Because female screwworm flies mate only once, mating with sterile males results in eggs that do not hatch, gradually collapsing the pest population.
Currently, USDA produces about 100 million sterile flies per week at a facility in Panama operated through the COPEG program and disperses them across affected areas of Mexico. USDA has also invested $21 million to help Mexico renovate a fruit fly facility in Metapa that is expected to begin producing sterile screwworm flies by summer 2026.
The new Texas facility will be the first sterile screwworm fly production site located in the United States. Groundbreaking is expected later this spring. Once operational in November 2027, the facility is expected to initially produce 100 million sterile flies per week, with long-term expansion capacity targeting 300 million flies weekly.
The New World Screwworm is a parasitic fly whose larvae feed on living tissue of warm-blooded animals, posing serious threats to livestock, wildlife, and public health. The United States eradicated the pest domestically in 1966, but continued monitoring and sterile fly releases remain critical to prevent re-establishment.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Today: Oil drops as markets price in possible end to Iran war
Trump comments and potential policy moves ease fears of prolonged supply disruption, triggering sharp reversal after Monday’s price spike
Oil prices plunged Tuesday after a dramatic surge the previous day, as markets reacted to signals from President Donald Trump that the war in the Middle East could end sooner than expected and that governments may take steps to stabilize global supply.
Brent crude futures fell $6.75, 6.8%, to $92.21 per barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $6.41, 6.8%, to $88.36 by mid-day trading.
Both contracts had fallen as much as 11% earlier in the session, marking a sharp reversal from Monday’s rally that pushed prices above $119 per barrel, the highest level since mid-2022.
The selloff came after Trump said in a CBS News interview that the U.S. campaign against Iran was “very complete” and progressing far faster than the original four- to five-week timeline, fueling expectations that the conflict — and the associated risk to oil flows — may end quickly.
Markets also took note of diplomatic signals. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Trump and presented proposals aimed at a quick settlement, according to a Kremlin aide. The possibility of de-escalation reduced fears of a prolonged disruption to crude exports from the Persian Gulf.
Analysts said traders quickly unwound the “panic premium” that had driven prices above $100.
Additional policy signals also helped cool prices. Reports indicated the administration is weighing options including releasing crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, coordinating a broader release with allies, and potentially easing sanctions on Russian oil to keep barrels flowing into global markets.
Iran, however, struck a defiant tone. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps warned it would determine the end of the conflict and threatened to halt oil exports from the region if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue.
Trading activity also dropped sharply as the market reassessed the outlook. Brent volumes fell to about 213,000 contracts, the lowest since late February, while WTI volumes slipped to 212,000, also near multi-week lows.
Despite the pullback, some indicators suggest underlying supply tensions remain. Middle Eastern benchmark grades such as Murban and Dubai crude are still trading above $100 per barrel, reflecting persistent concerns about physical supply in the region.
Meanwhile, G7 nations said Monday they are prepared to take “necessary measures” to address surging energy prices, though they stopped short of committing to a coordinated strategic reserve release.
Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs said it is maintaining its longer-term outlook despite the volatility, forecasting Brent at $66 per barrel and WTI at $62 by the fourth quarter of 2026, underscoring expectations that supply conditions will eventually normalize once the geopolitical shock fades.
—Tuesday: Oil prices surge on Hormuz disruption, then pull back on Russia sanctions talk
War-driven supply fears push crude to highest levels since 2022 before geopolitical signals trigger late reversal
Oil prices initially surged Monday as supply disruptions linked to the expanding U.S./Israeli war with Iran and coordinated production cuts from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers tightened global energy markets.
Brent crude futures settled at $98.96 per barrel, rising $6.27 (6.8%), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $94.77, up $3.87 (4.3%). During the session, prices spiked dramatically, with Brent reaching $119.50 and WTI $119.48, the highest levels for both benchmarks since June 2022. At their peak, intraday gains approached 29%.
The rally was driven largely by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint that normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG trade. Fighting tied to the conflict effectively shut the corridor, constraining exports from major Gulf producers.
As shipments stalled, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar reduced production while storage facilities filled and export logistics tightened. Saudi Aramco has already begun cutting output at two oilfields while offering more than 4 million barrels of crude through rare tenders to help offset export disruptions.
Analysts say even if Hormuz reopens soon, Gulf export flows could take six to seven weeks to normalize, prolonging tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
Despite the strong close, crude prices reversed direction in post-settlement trading after geopolitical developments suggested potential relief for supply constraints. Markets reacted to news of a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, alongside reports the Trump administration may consider easing sanctions on Russian oil exports to stabilize prices.
Additional downward pressure came from speculation that the Group of Seven (G7) could coordinate a strategic petroleum reserve release to cool markets.
Even with the late pullback, crude prices remain sharply elevated. Brent and WTI are both more than 35% higher since the Iran conflict began, underscoring how sensitive energy markets remain to supply disruptions in the Middle East — and raising concerns that sustained oil volatility could fuel inflation and weigh on global economic growth.
— California moves toward E15 — but full implementation is still unfolding
Legislation opened the door in 2025, yet regulatory steps and infrastructure changes mean statewide adoption will take several years
California — long the only U.S. state that did not allow E15 gasoline — has recently made significant policy progress. However, the shift from E10 to E15 remains partially implemented, with regulatory approvals, fuel-specification rules, and market adoption still underway.
Below is a clear breakdown of where things stand.
Major policy breakthrough in 2025. California’s biggest step came in October 2025, when Governor Gavin Newsom signed Assembly Bill 30 (AB 30).
• The law legalized gasoline blends with up to 15% ethanol (E15) in the state.
• Prior to this, California gasoline regulations capped ethanol at 10% (E10).
• The legislation passed unanimously in the state legislature, reflecting broad concern over gasoline prices.
The intent was to:
• Expand fuel supply
• Lower gasoline prices
• Align California with the rest of the U.S., where E15 is widely permitted.
Supporters estimate E15 could reduce gasoline prices in California by around 20 cents per gallon, though the real impact may vary.
Why implementation isn’t immediate. Even though E15 is now legal, California’s regulatory structure requires additional steps. The key agency is the California Air Resources Board (CARB), which must:
• Evaluate environmental impacts of E15 through a multimedia evaluation.
• Develop fuel specifications and blending rules compatible with California’s unique gasoline standards.
• Decide whether to formally adopt E15 regulations or restrict its use if it fails to meet environmental criteria.
In practice, that means legalization came first, but technical rulemaking continues.
Fire Marshal rules are emerging as a key bottleneck. The blend is now legal, but fuel-equipment compatibility and safety approvals — overseen partly by fire-safety regulators — are slowing real-world deployment.
Fire-safety and equipment certification rules are now one of the main obstacles to faster E15 adoption in California, though they are not the only one. The issue centers on whether underground storage tanks, piping, and dispensers at gas stations are certified to safely store and dispense E15.
1. What the Fire Marshal’s role actually is. In California, the State Fire Marshal and local fire authorities regulate fuel storage equipment, including:
• underground storage tanks (USTs)
• fuel dispensers and hoses
• piping and containment systems
For a station to sell E15, operators must demonstrate their equipment is compatible with the higher ethanol blend.
State guidance issued in 2025 reminded fuel retailers that operators planning to store E15 must prove compatibility with E15 under underground storage tank regulations before selling it.
This requirement is enforced through California’s Unified Program — the system that combines fire marshal oversight with environmental regulators.
2. Why this has become a practical roadblock. Even though AB 30 legalized E15 in October 2025, stations still cannot sell it unless:
• Storage tanks are certified for E15
• Pumps and hoses are approved for E15
• Local fire authorities sign off on the installation
Many existing stations were certified only for E10, not E15.
That means retailers may need to:
• upgrade tanks
• replace seals or hoses
• install new pump components
• file compatibility documentation with regulators
Those changes can cost $20,000 to $200,000 per station, depending on equipment age.
3. This is a national issue — but amplified in California. Across the U.S., many pumps are already compatible with E15.
But California is different for three reasons:
1) Unique gasoline system. California uses CARBOB / CaRFG gasoline specifications, which require separate compliance checks.
2) Strict environmental and safety oversight. CARB regulates fuel emissions and formulation. Fire authorities regulate storage safety.
3) Old retail infrastructure. Many California stations have older tanks certified only for E10. The result: legal approval happened faster than infrastructure readiness.
4) The other major bottleneck: CARB rulemaking. The fire marshal issue is important — but the largest regulatory step still pending is final rulemaking by the California Air Resources Board (CARB). Full implementation is likely in early 2027. Until those specifications are finalized, refiners and retailers are reluctant to invest heavily in E15 infrastructure.
Current regulatory timeline (expected path)
2024–2025
• CARB begins environmental analysis and regulatory preparation for E15.
September–October 2025
• California legislature passes AB 30.
• Governor signs the bill, making E15 legal in principle.
2025–2026
• CARB completes environmental reviews and prepares fuel specification rules.
• State working groups transmit technical evaluations to policymakers.
2026–2027 (expected market phase). Retail rollout depends on:
• CARB regulatory completion
• refinery and terminal adjustments
• retail infrastructure changes.
In other words, legal authority exists today, but widespread availability could take several years.
Infrastructure and fuel-system challenges. California’s fuel market is unusually complex, which slows adoption.
Key obstacles include:
Unique gasoline formulation
• California uses CARBOB/CaRFG reformulated gasoline, which is different from the blends used in most states.
• Refiners must confirm that E15 blends meet emissions rules.
Pump compatibility
• Some retail stations may need new labeling or pumps to sell E15.
Refinery incentives
• Refiners must adjust blending practices and supply chains.
Because California is a closed fuel system, supply changes take longer than in most U.S. markets.
Implications for agriculture and ethanol markets. For agriculture — particularly the corn and ethanol sector — California is potentially a major new demand center.
If E15 adoption becomes widespread:
• Ethanol demand could increase by hundreds of millions of gallons annually.
• That could translate into roughly 200 million bushels of additional corn demand.
Given California is the largest gasoline market in the United States, even modest adoption could materially expand the ethanol market.
Bottom Line:California has taken its biggest step ever toward E15, but the policy is still transitioning from legislation to real-world use. The Fire Marshal is not “blocking” E15, but safety certification requirements for tanks and pumps have become one of the practical bottlenecks slowing adoption. The real implementation challenge is a three-layer regulatory stack:
• CARB fuel rules
• Fire marshal/storage tank compatibility approvals
• Retail infrastructure upgrades
Until all three align, E15 will likely enter California gradually rather than immediately.
Current status
• E15: Legally authorized (since Oct. 2025)
• CARB regulations: Still being finalized
•Retail availability: Limited to early rollout
Realistic timeline
•2026: regulatory completion and pilot adoption
•2026–2027: broader retail availability
•Late decade: potential statewide market penetration
Perspective: For ethanol producers and corn growers, California represents the last major U.S. gasoline market to open to E15. The legislative barrier is gone, but the regulatory and infrastructure transition means the economic benefits will emerge gradually rather than immediately. That means the real demand boost for corn ethanol will likely unfold over several years, not months.
| TRADE POLICY |
—U.S. beef rapidly recaptures market share in Colombia
Exports rebound strongly after 2024 restrictions are lifted
U.S. beef exports to Colombia surged in 2025 as the industry regained market access following the removal of temporary restrictions tied to avian influenza concerns in U.S. dairy herds.
According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), exports climbed 23% in volume to 4,232 metric tons and 77% in value to $40.8 million compared with 2024. Colombian authorities had imposed restrictions that year after avian influenza was detected in some U.S. dairy herds, but those limits were lifted in the fall of 2024.
USMEF says the recovery was driven in part by promotional efforts supported by USDA and the Beef Checkoff Program. Homero Recio, USMEF’s Latin America representative, credited the organization’s Meat Merchandiser Program, which deploys experts to work with retailers and foodservice buyers to promote the quality and attributes of U.S. beef.
According to USMEF, the program helped regain customers who had shifted to Canadian suppliers during the restriction period and also identified new buyers across Colombia as U.S. product returned to the market.
The U.S./Colombia Free Trade Agreement, in place since 2012, also helped ensure that full market access for U.S. beef was quickly restored once the restrictions were lifted, allowing exporters to rapidly rebuild market share, USMEF said.
| CHINA |
—China exports surge at fastest pace in four years as global demand rebounds
Strong shipments to ASEAN, the EU and emerging markets offset a sharp drop in exports to the United States, highlighting a growing shift in China’s trade patterns
China’s exports surged 21.8% year over year in the first two months of 2026, marking the largest increase in four years and underscoring strong global demand for Chinese goods, particularly in technology sectors. According to data released Tuesday by Chinese customs authorities, exports totaled $656.6 billion in January–February, accelerating sharply from 6.6% growth in December and 5.5% growth for all of 2025. China typically combines the first two months of trade data to smooth distortions from the shifting timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Economists said the strength of the data reflects robust external demand, especially for technology products tied to the global artificial intelligence boom.
Trade shifts away from the U.S. Despite the overall export surge, China’s shipments to the United States fell 11% year over year in the first two months of 2026 amid ongoing trade tensions. Imports from the United States declined even more sharply, dropping 26.7%.
Meanwhile, Chinese trade expanded rapidly with other partners:
• ASEAN exports: up 29.4%
• European Union exports: up 27.8%
• Latin America exports: up 16.4%
•Africa exports: up nearly 50%
Exports to key European economies were particularly strong, rising 31.3% to Germany, 31.9% to France, and 36.4% to Italy.
Economists say the data points to a broader “de-Americanization” trend in China’s trade flows, with Beijing increasingly relying on regional partners and emerging markets.
Tech exports drive growth. High-technology sectors led the export surge.
•Semiconductor exports: up 72.6%, reaching $43.3 billion
• Total high-tech exports: up 26.9%
• Automobile exports: up 67.1%
•Ship exports: up 52.8%
Economists expect the momentum to remain concentrated in semiconductors, power equipment, and the broader AI supply chain, even as labor-intensive sectors such as apparel and footwear continue to decline.
Imports and energy security rise. China’s imports also strengthened, rising 19.8% year over year in January–February, helping produce a trade surplus of $213.6 billion for the period.
Energy imports were a notable driver. China purchased 96.9 million tonnes of crude oil, up 15.8%, as Beijing moved to bolster energy security amid rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Policy implications. The strong export performance could reduce pressure on Beijing to stimulate domestic demand in the near term. Analysts say the data also reinforces concerns among some trading partners about China’s expanding trade surplus, which reached a record $1.19 trillion in 2025.
The trade numbers arrive as President Donald Trump prepares for a closely watched visit to China later this month, where trade tensions and market access issues are expected to be key topics in discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Georgia special election field set for Greene’s former House seat
Seventeen candidates competing in a crowded special election in Georgia’s heavily Republican 14th District, with a runoff widely expected as voters choose a successor to former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene
Voters in northwestern Georgia head to the polls today (March 10) in a special election to fill the House seat vacated earlier this year by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who resigned in January following a political break with President Donald Trump.
With 17 candidates on the ballot — including 12 Republicans, three Democrats, one independent and one libertarian — it is highly unlikely that any candidate will secure the majority needed to win outright. Under Georgia election law, the top two finishers advance to a runoff scheduled for April 7, regardless of party affiliation.
Trump backs Fuller in crowded GOP field. President Trump has endorsed Clay Fuller, a district attorney representing four counties who previously served as a White House Fellow during Trump’s first administration. Trump appeared with Fuller at a campaign event in Rome, Georgia, praising him as “an incredible young guy” who would be “a total winner.” Fuller has received significant outside support, including backing from the Club for Growth and the Conservatives for American Excellence super PAC, which has spent at least $573,000 supporting his campaign.
Among Fuller’s main Republican rivals is Colton Moore, a former state senator known for his anti-establishment stance. Moore has drawn support from Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has frequently clashed with Trump.
Other Republicans in the race include Brian Stover, a businessman and former Paulding County commissioner, and Nicky Lama, a former Dalton city councilman.
Democrats eye runoff opportunity. The leading Democratic candidate is Shawn Harris, a retired Army brigadier general who lost decisively to Greene in the 2024 election and had already planned to challenge her again before the seat became vacant. With Republicans splitting the vote across a dozen candidates, Harris could potentially secure one of the two runoff spots if Democratic voters consolidate behind him.
District strongly favors Republicans. Georgia’s 14th Congressional District — which stretches from outer Atlanta suburbs to the Tennessee border — is a solid Republican stronghold. Trump carried the district 69% to 31% in the 2024 election.
The outcome also has implications for the House balance of power. Republicans currently hold a 218–214 majority, with three seats vacant. A Republican victory in the April runoff would slightly strengthen Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.)’s margin.
Two other vacant House seats remain unresolved:
• A New Jersey special election on April 16, where Democrats are favored.
• A rural northeastern California district, which may remain vacant until August.
Together, those races could shape the narrow partisan margins in the House over the coming months.
| FOOD POLICY & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—SNAP retailer stocking rule still under review at OMB
Additional stakeholder meetings scheduled signal the Trump administration’s final rule on updated SNAP staple food stocking standards may slip to next week
The Trump administration’s final rule updating Staple Food Stocking Standards for retailers participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) remains under review as additional stakeholder meetings are being scheduled at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
Administration officials indicated last week that the rule would be released soon. However, three new OMB review sessions have since been added, suggesting the timeline may extend into next week.
Scheduled meetings include a March 12 session with the National Association of Convenience Stores, another March 12 meeting with NATSO and SIGMA, and a March 16 meeting with the Center for Science in the Public Interest.
The additional meetings indicate the interagency review and stakeholder consultation process is still underway, making it unlikely the final rule will be released before those discussions are completed. As a result, the rule’s formal release now appears more likely sometime next week.
| TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS |
—China summons shipping giants amid Panama Canal dispute and war-driven supply shocks
Beijing calls in Maersk and MSC as tensions over Panama port control and Middle East conflict add new uncertainty to global shipping routes
China’s Ministry of Transport has summoned two of the world’s largest container shipping companies — Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) — for talks over “international shipping operations,” a move widely viewed as a warning amid escalating geopolitical tensions affecting maritime trade.
The brief government notice did not specify the reason for the meeting, but the companies are at the center of a dispute involving the Panama Canal after Panamanian authorities recently transferred temporary control of two key canal ports — Balboa and Cristobal — from a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Holdings to terminals operated by the two global carriers.
The decision followed a Panamanian court ruling that invalidated CK Hutchison’s decades-old concession to run the ports, declaring it unconstitutional. The Hong Kong conglomerate has responded by launching international arbitration and legal challenges against the Panamanian government, seeking at least $2 billion in damages and calling the takeover illegal.
Beijing has signaled strong backing for the Chinese-linked company, saying it will “resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests” of its enterprises abroad. Analysts say the summons of Maersk and MSC reflects rising concern in China over the strategic control of shipping routes.
The dispute also comes amid broader geopolitical disruptions, including the ongoing U.S./Israel conflict with Iran, which has already rattled global shipping lanes and energy markets.
The Panama Canal is particularly critical for China because it serves as a key route for imports of commodities such as soybeans and minerals from the Americas. Analysts warn that political tensions affecting the canal’s neutrality could increase shipping costs and disrupt trade flows between Asia and Western Hemisphere markets.
The port dispute has also become entangled in wider U.S./China strategic competition. President Donald Trump has previously called for reducing China’s influence over canal infrastructure and supported efforts that could shift control of strategic assets away from Chinese-linked companies.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Widespread showers and thunderstorms with a severe weather and flash flood risk expected across the Midwest and central/southern Plains Tuesday… …Continued active pattern for the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies will bring heavy lower elevation/coastal rain and high elevation snow through at least mid-week… …Well above average, Spring-like temperatures continue for much of the eastern U.S. with numerous daily record-tying/breaking highs possible.
