Focus on White House Ag Event Today 

Senate breaks DHS funding impasse, defers immigration fight to reconciliation that could include farm and ag disaster aid | OMB completes reviewing EPA’s final RFS Set 2 rule 
 

LINKS

Link: Trump Signals Escalation on Iran, Previews Major Farm Policy Rollout 
         at White House Event

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21

Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 21

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 27, 2026

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— Senate passes partial DHS funding, punts immigration and border fight to reconciliation — ICE and CBP funding now tied to a partisan package that could include farm aid and war spending 

— White House farm event to unveil policy moves — Trump expected to highlight aid, biofuels, and potentially the RFS Set 2 rule

— E15 bottleneck persists despite waivers — Limited fueling infrastructure, not policy, remains the key constraint on expanding ethanol demand

— China/U.S. tensions resurface with reciprocal trade probes — Diplomatic stability masks growing friction tied to Section 301 actions and supply chain concerns

— Ukraine strikes Russian oil export hubs — Disruptions to Baltic terminals add a second layer of global supply risk alongside the Iran war

— Rollins to address cattle industry in Fort Worth — USDA chief reinforces ties with producers amid market volatility and policy uncertainty

— U.S. eases Belarus potash sanctions amid fertilizer supply crunch — Move signals tentative diplomatic thaw while aiming to offset Middle East-driven fertilizer disruptions

— Iran war developments intensify energy and ag risks — Hormuz disruption, troop buildup, and fertilizer exposure raise stakes for global food systems

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Global equities slide amid war uncertainty — Investors remain cautious despite Trump’s optimism on talks, with Nasdaq still in correction territory

— Markets tumble in prior session as oil surges — Escalation fears and delayed strike decision drove volatility across equities and energy

— Trump signature set for U.S. currency — Administration expands branding push across federal programs and materials

— Spirits giants explore $30B merger — Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman weigh consolidation amid declining alcohol consumption

FARM ECONOMY

— Survey signals worsening farm outlook — Rising costs, weak prices, and global competition fuel pessimism about U.S. agriculture’s long-term viability

AG MARKETS

— USDA Hogs & Pigs report shows two-speed outlook — Near-term supply ample, but breeding herd decline points to tighter markets later in 2026

— Broader ag markets shaped by energy and weather — Iran war, crude rally, and drought conditions dominate commodity outlook

— Daily commodity moves mixed — Corn slips slightly while soy complex and wheat gain; cotton and cattle show strength

— Cotton AWP ticks higher — Price remains above LDP trigger level for second consecutive week

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Oil rises but posts weekly loss — Markets balance delayed U.S. strikes with persistent supply disruptions and weak ceasefire prospects

— Crude rebounds sharply on escalation risks — Hormuz constraints and multi-region disruptions push market toward a more fragile supply environment

WEATHER

— NWS outlook shows mixed conditions — Cooling in Plains and East, fire risks elevated, with limited precipitation across most regions

TOP STORIES — Senate breaks DHS funding impasse, defers immigration fight to reconciliation that could include farm and ag disaster aidAfter weeks of gridlock, lawmakers approve partial DHS funding without ICE and CBP — setting up a partisan showdown over immigration and war funding in the next phase After more than a month of stalemate, the Senate early Friday approved funding for most of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), deliberately excluding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), effectively ending a protracted and politically charged impasse. The measure passed by voice vote in a near-empty chamber around 3 a.m. ET, following intense overnight lobbying by Senate Republican leadership, including Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), who worked to secure enough support — or at least prevent objections — to move the bill forward. A temporary resolution, bigger fight ahead. Rather than resolving the core dispute, lawmakers opted to sidestep it. Funding for ICE and CBP will now be addressed through the reconciliation process, where Republicans can advance a party-line package expected to include additional border enforcement funding, Iran war-related spending, farmer and ag disaster aid and potentially the SAVE America Act — a GOP-backed voter ID and citizenship verification proposal. The White House signaled support for this strategy, with President Donald Trump backing the approach after declaring a national emergency to ensure pay for TSA workers during the shutdown — a move that helped break the deadlock. No clear winners in Senate standoff• Democrats got no reforms. While Democrats succeeded in securing DHS funding without ICE and CBP — a central demand — they failed to extract concessions on immigration enforcement, effectively surrendering leverage for future negotiations.• Republicans, meanwhile, ultimately agreed to the very funding structure they had resisted for days, abandoning efforts to tie the package to stricter immigration provisions. Still, GOP leaders are betting that reconciliation will allow them to secure expanded, multi-year funding for border enforcement agencies. House vote and shutdown endgame. Attention now shifts to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is expected to bring the measure to the floor quickly — possibly under suspension of the rules, which would require bipartisan support. While some House Democrats are frustrated by the lack of concessions, enough moderates are expected to support the bill to reopen DHS operations ahead of a scheduled congressional recess. If passed, the legislation would bring an end to the six-week partial shutdown. — White House to unveil farm policy moves at high-profile agriculture eventTrump signals new support actions as biofuels, aid programs, Product of the USA, and RFS decisions take center stage The White House today is hosting a major agriculture-focused event, bringing hundreds of farmers and agribusiness leaders to Washington as President Donald Trump prepares to outline new actions aimed at supporting the U.S. farm sector. Trump is scheduled to address attendees at 13:30 a.m. ET, framing the event as a reaffirmation of the administration’s commitment to agriculture. During a Cabinet meeting Thursday, Trump previewed “a variety of actions” to bolster farmers, highlighting roughly $12 billion in aid distributed through the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program using Commodity Credit Corporation authority. He again asserted the funding stemmed from tariff revenues — a claim contradicted by the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that invalidated the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for tariff collection. While specifics remain undisclosed, the event is widely expected to spotlight biofuels policy. Key possibilities include renewed emphasis on emergency waivers allowing E15 gasoline sales during the summer driving season and a potential announcement of the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard “Set 2” final rule, which now have been completed being reviewed at the Office of Management and Budget. The main focus points in the EPA RFS plan include the final levels for biomass-based biodiesel, whether Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) on fuel produced from imported feedstocks will carryover 50% value, and whether larger refiners will be forced to make up for RFS obligations waived as a result of small refinery exemptions (SREs). Market and policy attention is centered on several unresolved elements of the RFS rule: final biomass-based biodiesel volume mandates, whether Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) tied to imported feedstocks will be discounted to 50% value, and whether larger refiners will be required to absorb compliance obligations waived under small refinery exemptions (SREs). Bottom Line: The event underscores the administration’s effort to stabilize farm incomes and signal policy direction at a time of elevated input costs, biofuel uncertainty, and ongoing trade and legal tensions shaping the agricultural economy. — The dilemma of E15 and corn consumption. The average blend rate was only 11.04% in October even though we’ve had E15 waivers for several years in a row. Observers say it comes down to a combination: The industry is not going to expand the infrastructure without the certainty of year-round E15. E15 is currently offered at only about 3,000 fueling stations nationwide, while the ethanol industry places that figure closer to 4,000 — a small share of the roughly 120,000 to 150,000 total U.S. fueling stations. This gap is why some observers argue the biofuels industry should prioritize expanding retail infrastructure — blender pumps, storage compatibility, and station conversions — rather than focusing primarily on annual waiver extensions or legislative fixes. Without significantly more pumps, year-round E15 authorization alone would not translate into widespread consumer access. Retailers face real barriers to expansion, including upfront capital costs, liability concerns tied to misfueling, and uncertainty about long-term policy stability. Many station owners are hesitant to invest in new tanks or pumps without clear, permanent rules governing E15 sales. The result is a bottleneck: policy enables supply, but infrastructure determines actual demand. Even as ethanol producers push for nationwide, year-round E15, critics note that meaningful market share gains will require scaling distribution — not just securing regulatory relief. In that context, the waiver highlights a broader industry challenge: bridging the gap between production capacity and retail availability remains the key hurdle to expanding ethanol consumption in the U.S. fuel mix. There were initially provisions being discussed relative to E15 that would have altered the misfueling and fuel handling situation for E15. But since we do not have a “final” legislative package on year-round E15  that lawmakers were to have come up with by late February, it is not clear what is in any final legislative package that lawmakers have repeatedly said is coming “soon.” — China/U.S. trade tensions simmer as Beijing launches counter-probes after WTO meetingOfficials signal stability, but retaliatory investigations highlight growing fault lines in bilateral trade relationship Chinese and U.S. trade officials struck a measured tone following a high-level meeting at the WTO 14th Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé, Cameroon, but Beijing’s swift launch of two reciprocal trade probes underscores mounting tensions beneath the surface. On March 26, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, with both sides signaling continuity following prior negotiations in Paris earlier this month. Wang emphasized that trade ties should remain a stabilizing force in the relationship, stating that “trade and economic relations should continue to be the ballast and engine of China/U.S. relations, not a stumbling block or point of conflict.” Greer echoed that sentiment, noting the U.S. is willing to “strengthen dialogue and promote the sustained and stable development” of bilateral trade. Section 301 tensions resurface. Despite the diplomatic tone, friction quickly emerged. Wang raised “serious concerns” over Washington’s expanding use of Section 301 investigations targeting multiple trade partners — including China — particularly around alleged overcapacity and forced labor practices. Those concerns reflect broader unease in Beijing over the Trump administration’s evolving tariff and enforcement strategy, which increasingly leans on trade tools to counter industrial policy and supply chain dependencies. Beijing retaliates with dual probes. Within hours of the meeting, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced two new investigations: one examining U.S. measures seen as disrupting global supply chains, and another focused on restrictions tied to green trade sectors. The move signals a calibrated response — not an immediate escalation, but a clear willingness to mirror U.S. trade actions. As Trivium China noted, the current trajectory reflects a fragile equilibrium: “For now, it’s in both sides’ interests to try to ringfence the probe/counter-probe dynamic as a managed irritant as they focus on broader bilateral stabilization.” Stability without a summit carries risk. The underlying issue remains the absence of a high-level political agreement to anchor the relationship. While working-level engagement continues, the lack of a confirmed summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping leaves both sides managing tensions tactically rather than strategically. That raises the risk that targeted disputes — such as these reciprocal probes — could escalate beyond their current scope. Upshot: For now, both Washington and Beijing appear committed to containing trade frictions. But as Trivium China suggests, the longer broader negotiations remain unresolved, the harder it will be to keep these “managed irritants” from turning into full-scale trade conflicts. — Ukraine strikes Russian oil export hubs, adding new layer to global energy riskDrone attacks disrupt key Baltic terminals as Iran war continues to drive broader oil market volatility Ukraine’s stepped-up drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is beginning to materially disrupt Moscow’s oil export system, compounding an already fragile global market strained by the ongoing Iran war. According to Reuters, recent strikes have forced shutdowns or operational disruptions at major Baltic export terminals, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk, knocking out a significant share of Russia’s seaborne crude capacity. Estimates cited by Reuters indicate that as much as 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity — roughly 2 million barrels per day — has been affected by the attacks, marking one of the most consequential hits to Russian energy logistics since the start of the war. The strikes are part of a deliberate Ukrainian strategy to target the Kremlin’s primary revenue stream, with oil and gas historically accounting for roughly a quarter of Russia’s federal budget. The escalation comes at a critical moment for global energy markets. The war involving Iran has already pushed crude prices above $100 per barrel, tightening supply through disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. In that context, Ukrainian attacks are not the primary driver of market stress but are adding a second, reinforcing supply risk. Russia, meanwhile, has benefited from the broader geopolitical backdrop. Higher global prices have boosted per-barrel revenues, and the Trump administration has eased enforcement of certain sanctions to keep Russian barrels flowing and stabilize global supply. That combination has allowed Moscow to sustain export volumes — particularly to buyers in Asia — even as Western restrictions remain formally in place. However, Ukraine’s latest strikes aim to undercut that advantage. By targeting export infrastructure rather than production itself, Kyiv is attempting to create bottlenecks that limit Russia’s ability to move crude to market. Early indications suggest Moscow is working to reroute flows through alternative ports and pipeline systems, particularly toward China and India, but those adjustments come with logistical constraints and potential delays. For markets, the result is a shift from a single-source disruption to a multi-theater supply risk environment. The Iran conflict continues to anchor the global risk premium, but damage to Russian export capacity introduces additional uncertainty — particularly if attacks persist or expand. Still, analysts caution against overstating the immediate impact. The Russian disruptions, while significant, do not yet represent a full loss of supply, and global markets have thus far absorbed the shock. The larger concern lies in the cumulative effect: overlapping geopolitical disruptions that reduce spare capacity and increase the likelihood of sharper price swings. In that sense, Ukraine’s campaign is as much about shaping the broader energy battlefield as it is about degrading Russia’s war economy. By tightening supply at the margins, the strikes could contribute to higher global prices — but also limit the financial windfall Moscow has enjoyed from the Iran-driven rally. The net effect is a more structurally fragile oil market, where multiple conflict zones are now directly influencing supply flows, raising the risk of further volatility in the weeks ahead.  — Rollins returns to Fort Worth Cattle Raisers conventionUSDA Secretary to address producers amid mounting industry pressures USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is set to return to Fort Worth this weekend to headline the 2026 Cattle Raisers Convention & Expo, reinforcing ties between federal policymakers and the livestock sector at a pivotal moment for the industry. Rollins will speak during the Annual Membership Meeting on Saturday, March 28, at 8:00 a.m. at the Fort Worth Convention Center, marking her second consecutive appearance at the event hosted by the Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association. The convention — running March 27–29 — is expected to draw thousands of cattle producers, landowners, and industry stakeholders from across the Southwest, as the sector grapples with a range of challenges including market volatility, trade uncertainty, animal health threats such as New World screwworm, and evolving policy debates around dietary guidelines. Association leadership emphasized the significance of Rollins’ return, highlighting her ongoing engagement with producers and alignment with industry priorities. First Vice President Stephen Diebel pointed to the importance of direct dialogue with federal officials as producers face both economic and regulatory headwinds. Rollins — a Texas native with longstanding ties to the state’s agricultural community — has maintained close coordination with TSCRA leadership on key policy issues, positioning her as a central figure in shaping federal responses impacting cattle producers and rural economies. Beyond policy discussions, the convention will feature a 250-exhibitor trade show, more than 30 hours of educational programming through the School for Successful Ranching, and industry networking events, underscoring its role as a major gathering point for the U.S. cattle industry. U.S. eases Belarus potash sanctions amid fertilizer supply crunch Move signals tentative diplomatic thaw while aiming to offset Middle East-driven fertilizer disruptionsThe Trump administration has eased sanctions on select Belarusian financial and potash companies, a step that reflects both a potential warming in U.S.–Belarus relations and a strategic push to stabilize global fertilizer supplies. The decision follows a recent meeting in Minsk between Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and U.S. envoy John Coale, suggesting renewed diplomatic engagement.The policy shift comes as the ongoing Middle East conflict disrupts nitrogen fertilizer exports, tightening global supply and driving prices higher. By allowing greater access to Belarusian potash — a critical crop nutrient — the administration appears focused on easing input cost pressures for farmers and mitigating broader agricultural market risks.— War on Iran updates: •  President Trump said the U.S. will delay strikes on Iranian energy sites for another 10 days (until April 6) as “talks are ongoing” with Tehran, extending a pause that had been set to expire today. Trump has insisted it’s up to Iranian leaders to “get serious” and convince him to halt the war. Trump has insisted talks with Tehran are “going very well,” but there was little sign of a breakthrough. • Despite positive rhetoric, the U.S. continued to mass troops in the region,  keeping escalation fears elevated. • An Iranian military official threatened that if the U.S. and Israel continue striking the country’s energy infrastructure, its proxies will target the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a major chokepoint off of Yemen through which about 10 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies travel. The world’s two largest shipping companies are already avoiding the region. • President Trump today is set to deliver remarks on the White House South Lawn to farmers, who are staring down inflated fertilizer prices (about a third of the world’s fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz) as spring planting season charges into full force. • Analysts at Macquarie are warning that Brent crude, the global benchmark, could reach $200 a barrel if the war lasts into June. Such an increase would significantly impact the global economy and corporate profits. Brent is trading above $110 a barrel. It has soared roughly 50% since the war began. • Strait of Hormuz chokepoint tightens — energy buffer fading raises risks for agriculture and food systems; Rystad warns global oil system shifting from “buffered to fragile” as traffic stalls and inventories draw down.  The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is entering a more acute phase, with Iran signaling selective safe passage for “friendly” nations while overall tanker traffic remains near a standstill — a development that threatens to move the global energy market from a cushioned disruption into a true supply shock. Roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows transit the waterway, and the near halt in shipments is now beginning to overwhelm earlier stopgap measures, including strategic petroleum reserve releases and cargoes already in transit. Paola Rodriguez-Masiu of Rystad Energy noted the market is transitioning out of its initial shock-absorption phase: “Inventories already drawing down… the system has shifted from buffered to fragile.” From supply cushion to supply shock. In the first weeks of the conflict, global markets avoided panic as:• Governments tapped emergency reserves• Traders rerouted or accelerated shipments already at sea• Refiners leaned on stored crude inventories That dynamic is now reversing. With drawdowns accelerating, any prolonged disruption in Hormuz flows risks:• A sharp step-up in crude prices (beyond the current geopolitical premium)Immediate tightening in diesel and fuel markets, critical for agriculture• Broader inflation spillovers across food and input costs• Direct hit to agriculture and food production — The implications for agriculture are increasingly front and center:• Fuel costs: Diesel powers planting, harvesting, irrigation, and transportA sustained spike would materially raise per-acre production costs• Fertilizer markets: Nitrogen fertilizers are natural gas–intensive, and a large share of global supply is tied to the Persian Gulf. Disruptions risk tightening already fragile fertilizer markets during peak seasonal demand• Global food logistics: Higher shipping and insurance costs (war-risk premiums) could:Disrupt grain exportsDelay input deliveriesIncrease food prices globally The risk is a replay — or escalation — of 2022-style input inflation, but this time occurring alongside tighter inventories and a more constrained logistics environment. Selective passage adds geopolitical layer. Iran’s indication that it may allow shipments to “friendly” nations introduces a fragmented flow dynamic:• Some cargoes may move — but not at scale• Trade flows could reorient along political lines• Insurance and underwriting uncertainty may still keep vessels sidelined Even limited passage does little to restore confidence, as shipping markets depend on predictability, not selective access. What to watch next. Key indicators to monitor in the coming days:• Tanker movement data and queue backlogs in the Gulf• War-risk insurance pricing and coverage availability• SPR release signals from major consuming nations• Diesel and fertilizer price reactions relative to crude Bottom Line: The market is moving into a more dangerous phase, where physical shortages — not just fear premiums — begin to drive pricing. For agriculture, that transition could quickly translate into higher input costs, tighter margins, and renewed food inflation pressure worldwide.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

— Equities today: Global markets traded lower as uncertainty persisted despite Donald Trump signaling progress in talks to end the war and extending time for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — with no clear indication that Iran is backing down. Wall Street futures pointed lower following broad losses across major North American indexes, with the Nasdaq remaining in correction territory after the prior session’s sell-off.

In Asia, Japan -0.4%. Hong Kong +0.4%. China +0.6%. India -2.3%.
 

In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.8%. Frankfurt -1.2%.

Of note: CME FedWatch is for no rate cut or rate hike this year. December is at 53.4% for no cut, 35.8% for 25-point hike and 9.2% for what would be at 50-point hike to 4% to 4.25%. Probabilities for no rate change are 50% or more for the entire year at this point.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a rate that underpins mortgages and other loans, has risen to 4.46%.

— Equities yesterday: The Nasdaq closed in correction territory. If it closes 20% below its Oct. 29 close, it would enter a bear market. President Donald Trump said 11 minutes after the market closed that the U.S. would hold off on striking Iranian energy plants until Monday, April 6, at 8 p.m. ET. He said the new deadline was “As per Iranian Government request.” Worries that the war would escalate — as the original Friday deadline loomed — sent Brent crude oil futures 5.7% higher to $108.01 a barrel on Thursday. Oil prices later pulled back on Trump’s announcement.

Equity Index	Closing Price March 26	Point Change vs March 25	% Difference  from March 25
Dow	45,960.11	-469.38	-1.01%
Nasdaq	21,408.08	-521.74	-2.38%
S&P 500	6,477.16	-114.74	-1.74%

— President Donald Trump is set to have his signature appear on U.S. dollar bills, marking the first time a sitting president’s signature has been featured on paper currency. The move reflects a broader effort by the administration to incorporate Trump’s name and image across federal initiatives, materials and landmarks. Earlier this month, the president’s handpicked Commission of Fine Arts approved a large commemorative gold coin bearing his likeness. The government has also rolled out TrumpRx, a prescription drug website, and introduced a high-priced visa program known as the Trump Gold Card, among a range of other branded efforts.

— The makers of Absolut Vodka and Jack Daniel’s are in talks to combine. Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman confirmed they were discussing a “merger of equals” that would create a drink giant with a combined value around $30 billion. The discussions come as the drink industry faces a broad downturn in alcohol consumption, driven in part by GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and the consumption of cannabis products.

FARM ECONOMY

— Survey signals mounting crisis in U.S. agriculture competitiveness

Producers cite rising costs, global competition, and consolidation as key threats to farm viability and rural economies

A new survey of producers and industry stakeholders at the Mid-South Farm & Gin Show paints a stark picture of mounting financial pressure and declining global competitiveness across U.S. agriculture, with many farmers warning of an increasingly unsustainable future.

More than half of respondents (52.1%) expect to be worse off over the next two years, while only 9% anticipate improvement. Industry leaders described a shift from traditional seasonal optimism to “cautious pessimism,” driven largely by tightening access to operating loans and persistent margin pressure.

At the core of the concern is a deepening cost-price squeeze. Over 80% of respondents flagged weak commodity prices as a top issue, while 60.1% pointed to rising input costs. Some producers warned the situation is existential, with one respondent suggesting farming may no longer be viable within a decade.

Global competition — particularly from Brazil — is intensifying these pressures. More than 75% of respondents said U.S. agriculture has lost competitiveness over the past five years, citing Brazil’s lower input costs, fewer regulatory burdens, and ability to double-crop as major advantages.

Market consolidation also emerged as a major concern, with producers highlighting the growing influence of large input suppliers, particularly in fertilizer markets. Respondents called for greater scrutiny of potential market manipulation and corporate concentration.

The economic strain is increasingly spilling into rural communities. A quarter of respondents reported land being taken out of production, while others warned of declining local economies as larger, often out-of-state operators absorb farmland without reinvesting in communities.

Additional pressures include global trade challenges (39%), regulatory burdens (29%), labor shortages (29%), and rising concerns around farmer mental health (20%).

Of note: While discussions at the event pointed to potential policy solutions — including tax incentives for domestic cotton use and targeted legislative efforts — industry leaders emphasized that current aid and policy proposals fall short of addressing the structural cost disadvantages facing U.S. producers.

The broader takeaway from the survey is clear: without meaningful changes to cost structures, competitiveness, and market dynamics, many producers believe the long-term viability of U.S. agriculture is increasingly at risk.

AG MARKETS

Note: All market information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.

 

— USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report — March 26. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 26, providing official inventory, farrowing, and production data as of March 1, 2026. Approximately 7,000 hog producers were surveyed across the 16 largest hog-producing states.

Overall assessment: Mixed, with a near-term bearish lean. Total inventory came in below analyst expectations — a modestly friendly surprise — but the outsized jump in heavy hog inventories (180 lbs and over) and a larger-than-expected breeding herd decline paint a complex picture. The report’s most significant structural takeaway is a record pigs-per-litter rate of 11.9, confirming that productivity improvements are increasingly offsetting the structural contraction in the sow herd.

Report signals subtle supply shift — stable near-term, tightening ahead

Breeding herd contraction and softer farrowing intentions point to potential late-2026 supply tightening despite steady current inventories

Topline: Stable inventory masks emerging tightening signals

• The report shows total U.S. hog inventory at 74.3 million head, up slightly from a year ago but down 1% from December, reinforcing a narrative of steady but not expanding supply.

• Market hog inventory rose 1% year-over-year to 68.4 million head, suggesting ample near-term supplies, though a 2% quarterly decline indicates the pipeline is beginning to contract.

Breeding herd decline is the key bullish signal

• The breeding inventory fell 1% year-over-year to 5.89 million head, a critical signal for forward supply. 

• This contraction contradicts any notion of herd expansion and instead points to reduced production capacity into late 2026.

• In past cycles, sustained declines in the breeding herd have preceded higher hog prices as supplies tighten.

Production gains driven by efficiency — not expansion

• The December–February pig crop increased 1% to 33.2 million head, despite fewer sows farrowing. 

• The driver: pigs per litter rose to 11.90 from 11.65 last year, highlighting continued productivity gains.

• This signals that current production strength is biologically driven, not structurally supported by herd growth — a dynamic that can reverse quickly if efficiency gains plateau.

Forward look: Farrowing intentions turn softer

• USDA data shows March–May farrowings slightly higher year-over-year, but
• June–August intentions down 2% from last year, signaling potential supply tightening later in the year. 

• This shift suggests the industry is beginning to respond to margin pressures and uncertainty, particularly with elevated feed and input costs.

Structural shift: Contract production continues to expand

• Operations with over 5,000 head now account for 53% of total hog inventory under contract, up from last year. 

• This reflects continued consolidation and could slow the pace of supply adjustments, as large integrators tend to maintain production levels longer than independent producers.

Market implications
 

Near-term (spring–summer 2026):
• Ample supplies remain in the pipeline
• Pressure on hog prices likely persists absent a demand shock
 

Late 2026 outlook:
• Breeding herd contraction + lower farrowing intentions
• Points to tightening supplies and potential price support
 

Key watch items:
• Feed costs (corn/soymeal)
• Export demand (particularly Mexico and Asia)
• Whether productivity gains (pigs per litter) continue

Bottom Line

• USDA data reinforces a two-speed hog market outlook:

• Short-term supply remains comfortable, but
• Underlying fundamentals are shifting toward tighter production later in 2026

• The report’s most important signal is not the headline inventory — but the quiet erosion in the breeding herd and forward production intentions, which historically drive the next price cycle.

— General ag market overview & cross-market themes

Macro context: crude oil and the Iran war. The most powerful external force acting on commodity markets this week is the Iran conflict and its impact on crude oil. West Texas Intermediate crude surged over 4% to above $90 per barrel earlier in the week — a 37% gain for the month — as Iran denied holding talks with the United States to end the conflict, contradicting statements from President Trump suggesting a deal could be imminent. Crude is running near $97-98 per barrel as of Thursday’s session.

Elevated crude has wide-ranging effects across the ag complex. For corn, higher energy prices support ethanol demand economics, providing a price floor when the market faces selling pressure. For soybean oil and cotton, the broader commodity bid from energy strength supports prices. Crude’s rally has also contributed to a jump in 10-year Treasury yields toward 4.4% — the highest since July — as inflation worries intensify, creating a cautious tone in equities that ripples into futures markets.

The March 31 USDA reports: a critical inflection point. USDA’s Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports, due Tuesday, March 31, are the most important scheduled data releases on the near-term agricultural calendar. These reports will set the tone for spring trading across corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, projected corn plantings to drop to 94.371 million acres, down from 98.788 million acres in 2025, which was the most since 1936. Soybean seedings were seen at 85.549 million acres, up from 81.215 million a year ago. Plantings of spring wheat, grown in the northern Plains, are forecast to drop to 9.843 million acres, down from 9.990 million last year and the lowest since 1970.

Market impacts: A number in line with or below these estimates would be constructive for corn prices; a number toward the high end of estimates would be bearish given the elevated speculative long position of corn. 

The scale of the speculative corn long — over 1.15 billion bushels net long as of mid-March — is a significant risk factor. This makes sharp, profit-taking-driven volatility likely around the report release.

Weather: drought dominates the narrative. Drought conditions are shaping price action in multiple commodities simultaneously. In the Plains winter wheat states, nearly all of Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas is under moderate-to-extreme drought. Kansas Good/Excellent winter wheat ratings have fallen from 56% to 46% over just two weeks — a dramatic deterioration that has kept a floor under wheat prices.

In the Cotton Belt, the drought story is even more extreme. As of March 25, 88% of U.S. cotton production areas were experiencing drought conditions — up from 33% just one year earlier — representing one of the most rapid environmental deteriorations in American fiber production history.

Looking ahead, NOAA’s 6-to-14-day outlooks have turned wetter for the Plains and Midwest, with above-normal precipitation forecast starting late this month and extending into early April. Some relief — 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain — is expected in Indiana and Ohio through the weekend. Whether this alleviates crop stress will be closely monitored. 

— Thursday’s commodity price action and outlook 
 

Commodity	Contract  Month	Closing Price  March 26	Change from  March 25
Corn	May	$4.67	-0.25¢
Soybeans	May	$11.73 3/4	+2¢
Soybean Meal	May	$322.10	+$2.30
Soybean Oil	May	68.02¢	+92 pts
SRW Wheat	May	$6.05	+7 1/4¢
HRW Wheat	May	$6.26 3/4	+9¢
Spring Wheat	May	$6.45	+4 1/4¢
Cotton	May	69.41¢	+123 pts
Live Cattle	April	$235.10	+$0.675
Feeder Cattle	May	$351.75	+$1.70
Lean Hogs	April	$90.825	-$0.075

Corn

May Corn: $4.67/bu  |  Change: Down 1/4 cent  |  Positioning: Near Daily High

Thursday’s price action

May corn futures slipped fractionally after Wednesday’s solid gains, with mild corrective selling setting in near the daily high. The session reflected a classic consolidation pattern following an up day — sellers tested the prior session’s strength but found sufficient demand to keep prices near the highs. Higher crude oil prices helped limit the downside, as energy strength supports corn’s ethanol demand economics. The mild pullback should be viewed in the context of a market that has rallied considerably off early-March lows.
 

Near-term outlook & key drivers

The March 31 Prospective Plantings report is the single most important near-term catalyst. All eyes are on whether planted corn acres decline sharply from last year’s nine-decade high of 98.8 million acres. Managed money holds a historically stretched bullish position equivalent to over 1.15 billion bushels net-long as of mid-March — the largest since February 2025. This speculative positioning creates two-way risk around the report: a bearish acreage number could trigger a swift sell-off as longs exit, while a bullish (lower) acreage estimate would further validate the existing long thesis.
 

From an export perspective, year-to-date commitments are running approximately 81% of USDA’s full-year target, slightly behind the 82% average seasonal pace. Weekly ethanol production came in at 1.093 million barrels per day for the most recent reporting period — below the prior week’s seven-week high — suggesting some near-term softness in corn’s domestic demand driver. However, the EIA’s Renewable Fuel Standard expansion (targeting 24.02 billion gallons of total renewable fuel in 2026, up from 22.33 billion in 2025) provides a structural long-term positive for corn-based ethanol.
 

Some moderate rainfall is expected in the eastern Corn Belt through the weekend, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches possible in Indiana and Ohio. The 6-to-14-day outlooks call for above-normal temperatures and moisture across the central U.S. into early April, which should be generally supportive for early planting conditions.

Soybeans, Soybean Meal & Soybean Oil

May Soybeans: $11.73-3/4/bu  |  Up 2 cents  |  Meal: $322.10/ton (+$2.30)  |  Oil: 68.02 cents/lb (+92 pts, 2-wk high)

Thursday’s price action

May soybeans edged modestly higher on mild short covering and perceived bargain hunting, settling near mid-range. Soybean meal gained $2.30 to settle near its daily high, while soybean oil — boosted by the crude oil complex — rose 92 points to its highest level in two weeks. All three soy products moved in concert, suggesting a broad-based recovery attempt rather than product-specific demand.

The market remains significantly below the 21-month high of approximately $12.39 per bushel posted on March 12. That peak triggered a sharp wave of selling that drove prices down more than 65 cents in roughly two weeks, and the market is now in a consolidation phase as traders assess a sustainable trading range.

Near-term outlook & key drivers

South American harvest progress remains a critical variable. Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest is running behind last year’s pace at 67.5% complete versus 75% at the same point one year ago, per StoneX estimates. This slower harvest pace has the potential to tighten near-term South American supply, providing a supportive backdrop for U.S. prices.

On the demand side, year-to-date export inspections are running approximately 116 million bushels short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s full-year target. This shortfall is a significant headwind, reflecting competition from Brazilian supplies and uncertainty around trade relations. A potential Trump-Xi summit in May has created some optimism around Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, though no concrete commitments have been made.

Soybean oil’s strength relative to meal reflects sustained tailwind from renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel demand, which has elevated crush margins and incentivized record crush activity. NOPA reported a record 208.8 million bushels crushed in February — up 10.57% year-over-year. For the March 31 reports, analysts expect U.S. soybean plantings to jump approximately 6% to around 86.1 million acres, which could cap the upside in prices heading into summer.

Wheat

May SRW: $6.05/bu (+7-1/4 cents)  |  May HRW: $6.26-3/4/bu (+9 cents)  |  May Spring: $6.45/bu (+4-1/4 cents)

Thursday’s price action

All three wheat classes posted firm gains near session highs, led by HRW wheat’s 9-cent advance. Today’s strength was driven by short covering and perceived bargain hunting following a period of weakness that pushed SRW to the low $5.90 range after its nine-month high of $6.41-3/4 on March 9. Winter wheat markets had been under pressure as incoming wetter forecasts for the Plains eased some drought premium, but today’s session saw the bulls reassert themselves.

Near-term outlook & key drivers

Drought stress in the winter wheat belt remains the central fundamental driver. Nearly all of Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas is covered by moderate-to-extreme drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Kansas Good/Excellent ratings have deteriorated from 56% to 46% over just two weeks, with conditions in Oklahoma and Texas even more dire.

The export picture provides additional support. Year-to-date wheat shipments are running 18% above a year ago and have reached 81% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels. Strong U.S. wheat export competitiveness — partly a function of reduced Russian supplies following export quotas and a 500,000-ton cut in Ukraine’s export forecast — has helped underpin prices.

The incoming NOAA forecasts calling for above-normal precipitation across the Plains over the next two weeks will be watched carefully. Meaningful rainfall in the critical winter wheat states could ease drought concerns and prompt additional selling pressure. Conversely, if the precipitation fails to materialize, the fundamental case for higher prices strengthens as the critical spring jointing and heading period approaches.

Cotton

May Cotton: 69.41 cents/lb  |  Up 123 points  |  5.5-Month High

Thursday’s price action

May cotton was the session’s most dramatic mover, surging to a 5.5-month high on a combination of technical buying and buy-stop execution just above last week’s highs. The rally extended a sharp recovery from the low 62-cent range in early March toward the 70-cent mark. The catalyst is a genuine supply crisis unfolding in real time: as of March 25, 88% of U.S. cotton production areas are experiencing drought conditions — up from just 33% one year earlier — representing one of the most rapid environmental deteriorations in American fiber production history.

Near-term outlook & key drivers

The rally’s primary engine has been a massive short squeeze. Heading into 2026, managed money funds held near-record net short positions in cotton, betting that weak global demand would suppress prices. The sheer scale of the drought forced these shorts to cover: funds bought back over 6,100 net short contracts in a single week in mid-March, reducing their net short position to approximately 66,754 contracts.

The March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings report will be closely scrutinized for cotton planting intentions. Drought-stressed growers in Texas, Oklahoma, and the Carolinas may significantly reduce cotton acreage for 2026, tightening new-crop supply further. The corn-to-cotton price ratio stands near 6.5, which historically implies approximately 10 to 10.5 million acres of U.S. cotton planted.

On the demand side, the picture is more cautious. Net upland cotton export sales for 2025/26 recently came in 30% below the four-week average pace. Total export commitments stand at approximately 83% of USDA’s forecast, behind the 96% average seasonal pace. However, new-crop 2026/27 forward sales recently reached a marketing-year high of 122,221 running bales, suggesting some longer-term demand optimism. A sustained move above 70-71 cents would represent a significant technical milestone and could trigger additional short covering.

Cattle — Live & Feeder

April Live Cattle: $235.10/cwt (+$0.675)  |  May Feeder Cattle: $351.75/cwt (+$1.70, 3-week high close)

Thursday’s price action

April live cattle paused for much of the session before chart-based bulls stepped up late in the day to push prices near the daily high. May feeder cattle settled at their highest closing price in three weeks, a bullish technical development. Both markets had seen softness mid-week, with April live cattle falling $1.675 on Wednesday amid a failed online auction where no sales occurred on 1,024 head offered. Thursday’s recovery confirms the underlying bid.

Cash cattle trade found support at $235 live and $372 dressed in the north, steady with the prior week. Packers reportedly held live prices steady while raising boxed beef prices — resulting in their best packing margins in several years. Wholesale boxed beef remains strong, with Choice trading well above $390 per hundredweight.

Near-term outlook & key drivers

The structural backdrop for cattle is as bullish as it has been at any point in the modern cattle cycle. Several converging factors underpin prices at elevated levels:

•         Herd at 75-year lows: The U.S. cattle herd stood at 86.2 million head on January 1, 2026 — a 75-year low. With inventory still in the contraction phase, the supply constraint is likely to persist through at least 2028.

•         Mexico border closure: The U.S./Mexico border remains closed to live cattle imports due to New World screwworm, eliminating the typical annual inflow of 1.2-1.5 million feeder cattle. Even when the border reopens, recovery will be gradual with a 300-day feeding period before those animals enter the supply chain.

•         Record consumer demand: Domestic beef demand is at its highest level since 1983, driven by high-protein dietary trends, the GLP-1 medication consumer shift toward protein, and strong consumer spending. Retail beef prices averaged above $9 per pound in 2025 and consumers have continued buying.

•         Slaughter well below year-ago: Weekly federally inspected slaughter is running approximately 55,000 head below year-ago levels, providing a structural supply constraint that keeps packers competing for available cattle.
 

USDA projects the 2026 average slaughter steer price at $242 per hundredweight — well above current futures levels. CattleFax projects all cattle classes averaging higher in 2026, with 800-lb steer prices at $335/cwt and 550-lb steer prices at $440/cwt. Herd rebuilding is likely a 2027-2028 story at the earliest.

Lean Hogs

April Lean Hogs: $90.825/cwt  |  Down $0.075  |  Nine-Week Low Close

Thursday’s price action

April lean hog futures drifted slightly lower near mid-range, marking a nine-week low close and extending a clearly defined three-week price downtrend. Bulls remain reluctant to step in front of the technical slide. The CME lean hog index stood near $91.95-$92.04, providing some fundamental grounding, but futures have been unable to respond to that underlying support as speculative selling has dominated.

Pork cutout values continued to hover near $100 per hundredweight, with the noon report showing a $2.84 gain to $100.89. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price stands at $69.09. Estimated weekly slaughter reached approximately 482,000 head — relatively tight compared to year-ago levels. The fact that pork fundamentals remain reasonably solid makes the futures weakness primarily a technical and sentiment story.

For the hog outlook, see the separate report above on the impact of the latest USDA Hogs & Pigs report.

— Cotton AWP moves higher. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 54.47 cents per pound, effective today (March 27), up from 54.22 cents per pound the prior week. The mark remains above the level of 52 cents that would trigger an LDP, now having been above that mark for a second week in a row.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

— Friday: Oil rises on war risk but posts first weekly loss since February

Markets balance delayed U.S. strikes with ongoing supply disruptions and uncertain ceasefire prospects

Oil prices rose Friday, but both benchmarks were set for their first weekly decline since early February as traders weighed President Donald Trump’s delay of strikes on Iran against persistent supply risks.

Brent crude gained $3 to $111.01 per barrel, while WTI rose $2.59 to $97.07. Still, Brent fell 1.1% on the week and WTI dropped 1.3%, despite sharp gains since the war began.

Markets remain focused on the conflict’s duration. Analysts say prices are being driven by tightening supply — with roughly 10–11 million barrels per day disrupted — and the risk of further escalation, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

While Trump extended a deadline for action and diplomacy continues, Iran has rejected a U.S. proposal, signaling limited progress toward a ceasefire.

Outlook remains highly volatile: prices could ease if tensions subside but may surge toward $200 per barrel if the conflict drags on.

— Thursday: Oil rebounds as war risks intensify and Hormuz flows remain constrained

Crude prices climb sharply amid stalled diplomacy, military escalation, and historic supply disruptions

Crude futures surged Thursday, reversing prior losses as expectations for a quick resolution to the Middle East war faded and supply risks deepened. 

Brent crude rose $5.79, or 5.7%, to settle at $108.01 per barrel. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $4.16, or 4.6%, to close at $94.48. 

Despite the price jump, trading volumes were notably thin — with front-month Brent activity at its lowest since February 27, just before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began.

Markets are struggling to interpret conflicting signals. On the ground, escalation continues. The Pentagon is weighing deployment of thousands of airborne troops to the Gulf, adding to Marine forces already mobilizing. Meanwhile, Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen signaled readiness to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes — raising the risk of a broader maritime disruption.

The impact on energy flows is severe. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — which normally carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG — have nearly halted, in what the International Energy Agency has described as the largest oil supply disruption on record. Ongoing troop movements, strikes, and tightly controlled tanker passage are continuing to strain global markets.

Beyond the Gulf, supply pressures are compounding. Iraq — OPEC’s second-largest producer in 2025 — is curbing output as storage capacity fills. In Russia, about 40% of export capacity has been disrupted following Ukrainian drone strikes and tanker seizures, with at least one major refinery offline.

There are tentative signs of partial recovery. A Thai tanker successfully navigated the Strait following coordination with Iran, and Malaysia reported similar movements. Tehran has also indicated conditional openness to European shipping requests, while France is working with partners on contingency plans to fully reopen the chokepoint once hostilities ease.

Still, with diplomacy stalled and military risks rising, the oil market is shifting from a buffered system to a fragile one — leaving prices increasingly sensitive to any further disruption.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: A cool down in the Plains and the East Coast will occur behind a cold front passage, while the West continues to feel above average warmth… …Fire weather concerns will prevail across the Plains, as well as parts of the Southeast… …Much of the nation will be dry and see little in precipitation for the weekend, with the exception of showers and thunderstorms in South Florida.