GOP Losing Credibility with Farmers on “Next Week” Promises Not Delivered
FSA launches effort to pinpoint staffing shortfalls | Why fertilizer prices stay high despite falling energy costs
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 28
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 28
Today’s Updates:
AG POLICY & USDA
— Farmers bristle as USDA aid details slip again, extending months of uncertainty
— Rollins touts trade deals as bridge aid nears
— USDA warns states over SNAP data compliance
— FSA launches effort to pinpoint staffing shortfalls
— FSA prepares for OBBBA program overhaul and post-shutdown implementation
— Why fertilizer prices stay high despite falling energy costs
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global stock markets mixed overnight
— Equities yesterday: Major U.S. indexes close higher
LEGAL & ENVIRONMENT
— Illinois reaches $120 million settlement with Monsanto
U.S. ECONOMY
— U.S. private sector sheds jobs in November
COMMODITIES & TRADE
— Copper hits fresh record as tariff risks tighten global supply
— More U.S. soybean cargoes headed to China; Reuters reports surge in Dec loadings
— Agriculture markets yesterday
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Wednesday: Oil edges higher as Moscow talks stall; no progress on Ukraine peace
— Tuesday: Oil prices fall as peace hopes dim and oversupply fears persist
— U.S. shale keeps outpacing its own warnings
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Republican Matt Van Epps wins Tennessee special election as Democrats
overperform again
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Snow, heavy rainfall, and record-challenging arctic air ahead
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Dec. 3, 2025
| UP FRONT— USDA aid delays deepen farm frustration: Farmers are increasingly exasperated as Secretary Rollins again pushes promised aid details to “next week,” extending months of shifting timelines tied to the shutdown and White House reviews.— Rollins touts trade deals as bridge aid nears: USDA says new market-opening agreements in Asia will reduce reliance on federal payments long term, even as the administration prepares short-term “bridge” checks funded partly by tariff revenue.— USDA warns states over SNAP data dispute: Rollins threatened to halt administrative funds for 21 states refusing to provide SNAP-use data, despite a court injunction complicating the administration’s next steps.— FSA survey aims to document staffing shortages: An agency-wide UFD workload review is underway to quantify unmet tasks after the shutdown, though it remains unclear if past surveys have yielded staffing relief.— FSA prepares major OBBBA program overhaul: County offices are receiving detailed instructions on new ARC/PLC rules, CRP reauthorization limits, and disaster-aid programs as implementation resumes post-shutdown.— Why fertilizer stays expensive: Despite lower natural-gas prices, global supply constraints, export restrictions, logistics stress, and lingering geopolitical disruptions are keeping fertilizer costs elevated.— Global equities mixed: Asian and European markets were uneven overnight, while U.S. indexes pointed to modestly stronger openings.— Illinois secures $120M Monsanto PCB settlement: State leaders say the agreement will fund long-needed cleanup of decades-old contamination tied to Monsanto’s PCB production.— U.S. private sector sheds jobs: ADP reports a 32,000-job decline in November — the worst since 2023 — driven by sharp losses among small businesses and broad sectoral weakness.— Copper hits new record as tariff risks loom: LME copper surged above $11,400 on tightening supply, rising warehouse orders and expectations of new U.S. tariffs intensifying a potential Q1 squeeze.— More U.S. soybeans headed to China: Reuters reports at least six Gulf vessels scheduled to load soybeans by mid-December, marking the strongest pickup in months after renewed Trump-Xi commitments.— Ag markets firm to mixed: Corn rose, soy complex was mixed, wheat posted small gains, cattle surged, and hogs eased.— Oil edges higher as Moscow talks fail: Brent and WTI rebounded modestly after U.S.–Russia peace discussions stalled, keeping sanctions pressure elevated amid rising U.S. inventories.— Oil slips on oversupply fears: Markets retreated Tuesday as Russia-Ukraine diplomacy faltered and expectations for a 2026 surplus weighed on sentiment.— U.S. shale keeps beating its own guidance: Despite springtime warnings, U.S. crude output continues to surprise to the upside and is projected to keep rising through 2030.— GOP holds TN-7 in closer-than-expected race: Republican Matt Van Epps won the special election, but Democrats’ 9-point overperformance boosts their confidence heading into 2026.— Weather outlook: Heavy snow across western and northern regions, Gulf Coast rainfall with localized flooding risk, and record-challenging cold expected in the Midwest by Thursday. TOP STORIES—Farmers bristle as USDA aid details slip again, extending months of uncertaintyRollins says “next week” — again — after repeated missed timelines tied to shut down and shifting USDA/White House signals U.S. farmers are expressing mounting frustration with the Trump administration after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins again said that long-awaited details of a new farm aid package will be released “next week” — mirroring comments she made just last week, when she said the announcement would come “this week.” The repeated slippage has deepened irritation across farm country, where producers have been told for months that relief was imminent only to see the target date move repeatedly. A promise that keeps moving. The trajectory of the aid package has become a case study in shifting timelines: •Before the shutdown: Rollins and several farm-state lawmakers including Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said the administration was prepared to unveil a comprehensive relief package addressing severe weather losses, market disruptions, and tariff-related strain. •During the 43-day shutdown: As the gov’t remained closed, USDA officials and allied lawmakers insisted the aid would follow “shortly after” Congress reopened the government. •After reopening: Rollins continued to signal that details were nearly ready — first saying the announcement would come “this week,” and now saying it’s coming “next week,” sparking widespread skepticism that another delay is inevitable. Producers say the continually shifting timeline has left them unable to plan or make financial decisions as year-end loan renewals, tax planning, and input purchases come due. Many feel they have been strung along by politically convenient promises that have not materialized. Producers say patience is gone. Farm groups report a spike in calls from growers who say their financial situation is tightening and that the uncertainty is making it worse. Some farmers have already booked losses tied to drought-hit crops, livestock disease pressures, or the tariff disruptions of 2025, and they expected USDA support to cushion the blow by now. Quote of note: “Every week it’s the same line — ‘next week.’ We’ve been hearing that since before the shutdown,” one Midwestern said. “We need real numbers, not moving goalposts.” County Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices, already strained by staffing shortages and a backlog worsened by the shutdown, say they are fielding questions daily with little guidance from Washington. Political friction builds in farm states. The repeated delays are also creating tension between farm-state lawmakers and USDA. Several lawmakers who previously echoed Rollins’ assurances now face pushback at home for aligning themselves with timelines that have not held. Impact: With early planting decisions beginning in southern states and 2025 marketing losses already tallied in others, producers fear that any further delay could push payments into a timeframe that is less financially useful — or less politically neutral. USDA says package is complex — farmers say it’s late. Rollins and USDA officials have argued that the package involves multiple programs and must navigate both OMB and congressional scoring requirements, contributing to the delay. But farmers say those explanations ring hollow after months of similar assurances. What Rollins did not reveal is that the package is over at the White House seeking final approval. Some producers also recall past aid rollouts — such as MFP and ERP — where USDA released frameworks early, even if final rules came later. They question why USDA has not at least offered a broad outline of payment structures, coverage periods, or eligibility. Growing fear the aid will shrink. Without concrete details, speculation is rising that the final package may be smaller than previously signaled or reshaped to address narrower categories of losses. Farm groups warn that any significant downscaling would trigger fierce pushback, given how long producers have been told help was just around the corner. The speculative funding total ranges from a high of $15 billion to something under $10 billion. Pressure rising ahead of “next week.” Rollins’ latest statement sets up another pivotal week for USDA credibility in rural America. Farmers say that if USDA fails to release the details this time, confidence will erode further — not just in the aid package but in future commitments tied to disaster relief, tariff support, and OBBBA-related transitions. For now, the phrase “next week” has become a running joke in coffee shops and co-ops across the Midwest. But behind the humor is genuine financial strain — and growing impatience — as farmers wait for the administration to deliver on a promise that has already slipped multiple times. — Rollins Touts Trade Deals as Bridge Aid NearsAg Secretary says new market access will lessen farmers’ reliance on federal payments, even as stopgap support is readiedUSDA Secretary Brooke Rollinssaid Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s expanding network of agricultural trade deals will ultimately reduce farmers’ dependence on federal aid checks by opening lucrative new foreign markets. But she acknowledged that the administration will soon unveil “bridge” payments to help producers still recovering from the Biden-era downturn and recent disruptions tied to the government shutdown.Speaking at a Dec. 2 Cabinet meeting, Rollins said the White House has secured “dozens of trade deals” that collectively offer “unprecedented” opportunities for U.S. agriculture, shifting the sector away from farming “for government checks” and toward selling into newly accessible global markets. Recent agreements with Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia have reduced or eliminated non-tariff barriers on U.S. farm goods; Cambodia pledged to scrap tariffs on all U.S. agricultural and industrial imports, while Vietnam promised preferential access for substantially all U.S. agricultural exports.Rollins said these deals mark the start of “a golden age” for rural America, but added that interim support is still needed. She confirmed the administration will announce new bridge payments next week, financed partly through tariff revenue — an idea President Trump first floated in September but delayed by the prolonged shutdown. The first Trump administration distributed roughly $30 billion to offset tariff-related farm losses.Rollins also echoed recent claims that China is halting purchases of Brazilian soybeans after Beijing stopped a 69,000-ton cargo and suspended several Brazilian exporters over contamination concerns. She argued that the episode reinforces the premium quality of U.S. soybeans and other crops. After largely avoiding U.S. soy purchases for most of the year amid trade tensions, China resumed buying ahead of the late-October Trump/Xi meeting and committed to 12 million metric tons of soybeans this year and 25 MMT annually for the next three years, with purchases now accelerating. —USDA warns states over SNAP data complianceRollins threatens to withhold administrative funds as legal fight continues USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins warned Tuesday that the department is prepared to withhold certain SNAP funds from states that have refused to provide detailed program-usage data requested by the administration. Speaking at a Cabinet meeting, Rollins said 29 states have complied, but 21 states — including California, New York, and Minnesota — “continue to say no.” Rollins said USDA would begin stopping the flow of federal funds to those states “as of next week” until they agree to share data and “allow us to partner with them to root out this fraud and to protect the American taxpayer.” She pointed to findings from the 29 states that submitted information:• 186,000 Social Security numbers belonging to deceased individuals were used to receive SNAP benefits,• 500,000 beneficiaries were receiving payments more than twice, and• A handful of individuals were collecting benefits in up to six states. However, USDA told Politico that the department would only pull administrative funds from noncompliant states — a narrower action than Rollins’ comments suggested, and one that does not cut off core SNAP benefits. The dispute is unfolding alongside active litigation: 21 states and the District of Columbia sued the administration earlier this year, leading a federal judge in San Francisco to issue an injunction blocking the data request. The administration faces a Dec. 15 deadline to determine its next legal move, and it remains unclear how Rollins’ latest warning fits within the court order. —FSA launches effort to pinpoint staffing shortfallsAgency-wide survey seeks to quantify unmet workload and guide future hiring needs USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) is conducting an agency-wide push to determine where staffing shortfalls are hindering its ability to complete core field-office work. The initiative centers on measuring “Unaccounted for Demand” (UFD) — tasks that go unfinished or are completed late because offices lack sufficient personnel. According to FSA, the UFD surveys are designed to identify specific areas where backlogs have grown, deadlines have been missed, or staff have been overextended. The agency stressed to county offices that the survey’s purpose is solely to assess additional staffing needs, not to evaluate efficiency or performance. The effort, delayed by the government shutdown, launched Oct. 1 and runs through Dec. 31, 2025. County Executive Directors are responsible for completing the surveys, which will display their 2024 responses alongside their 2025 data to help track changes year over year. While the survey process is now annual, it remains unclear whether past findings have led to measurable shifts in staffing levels or meaningful relief for offices struggling with persistent workload gaps. Comments: Some FSA county offices have still not approved SDRP Stage 2 payments and/or informed farmers about the program details. —FSA prepares for OBBBA program overhaul and post-shutdown implementationAgency resumes operations with new ARC/PLC rules, CRP updates, and disaster-aid instructions for counties The Farm Service Agency (FSA) has fully resumed operations after the federal shutdown and is issuing extensive guidance to county offices on implementing key provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and rolling out new disaster-relief programs for stored-commodity and milk-production losses. FSA is briefing offices on OBBBA changes that take effect for the 2025 and 2026 crop years, including updates to the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs. These revisions cover effective reference prices, ARC guarantee and payment-rate calculations, payment-limit increases, and a new requirement for producers to make a fresh ARC/PLC election for 2026. Offices are also being advised on the allocation of up to 30 million base acres beginning with the 2026 program year — automatic unless an owner opts out — and on rules for Fruit and Vegetable double-crop counties and extended grass/idle/fallow (G/I/F) farms. CRP: Under the CR passed with FY 2026 Agriculture Appropriations, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has been reauthorized through September 30, 2026. This allows FSA to process modifications to existing CRP contracts through Oct. 1, 2025, but offices still lack authority to approve any new CRP enrollments. Counties are also receiving instructions for two major disaster programs: the On-Farm Stored Commodity Loss Program (OFSCLP) and the Milk Loss Program (MLP). OFSCLP will compensate producers for uncompensated losses of harvested crops stored on-farm due to disasters in 2023–24, while MLP indemnifies dairy operations for milk dumped or removed from the commercial market because of qualifying events in the same period. Applications opened Nov. 24 and run through Jan. 23, 2026. —Why fertilizer prices stay high despite falling energy costsStructural shocks, global supply constraints, and trade policies are keeping fertilizer expensive — even as farmers point to cheaper natural gas Farmers increasingly wonder why fertilizer prices remain stubbornly high when natural gas and other energy costs have fallen sharply, with some accusing the industry of outright price-gouging. But the reality is more complicated: while natural gas is a major input for nitrogen fertilizers, today’s prices reflect a broader mix of global supply disruptions, export restrictions, lingering geopolitical shocks, tight logistics, and strong worldwide demand. The result is a price floor that has not fully retreated from the 2021–2022 supply-chain crisis, even as energy costs ease — driving frustration in farm country and fueling debates about market power versus genuine structural pressures. Why fertilizer is (or remains) expensive. The natural-gas/energy link is real — but volatile• For nitrogen fertilizers (like urea or ammonia), the bulk of cost comes from natural gas. The hydrogen needed for the chemical reaction (Haber-Bosch) is derived from gas, and historically natural gas prices had a near-direct correlation with nitrogen fertilizer cost.• That said, even though natural-gas prices dipped after the 2022 spikes, they have not returned to a “pre-crisis” stable trough. Some producers still face higher input costs than in “normal” years, especially in export-facing markets or where gas supply is volatile.• Also, energy costs are only part of the cost structure. For example, one recent analysis showed the historic correlation between gas and fertilizer prices has weakened over time, meaning other factors have become relatively more important. Supply-chain disruptions, export restrictions, and geopolitics. Even if energy is moderately priced, supply-side constraints can drive fertilizer prices up:• Global supply disruptions triggered by events such as the war between Russia and Ukraine have severely limited shipments of nitrogen fertilizers from major exporters.• Export restrictions by other large fertilizer exporters, especially on phosphate or potash fertilizers, have further tightened global supply.• On the trade-policy side, tariffs and trade barriers (on phosphate, potash, and other fertilizer inputs) have added cost layers for U.S. farmers.• Logistical bottlenecks — port congestion, shipping delays, inland transportation struggles, river-low water levels (affecting barge traffic) — all add to effective costs, regardless of raw-material or energy prices. Strong global demand — and demand competition. Worldwide demand for fertilizer remains robust, especially as global population growth, dietary shifts, and expanded crop acreage in emerging markets (e.g., in Brazil, India) push demand up.• Even if supply recovers somewhat, elevated demand exerts upward pressure on prices globally — both for nitrogen fertilizers and for phosphate/potash fertilizers, which rely less on natural gas but more on mined minerals, transport, and global trade flows. Market structure and recovery from prior crash. Many fertilizer prices spiked in 2021–2022 (driven largely by high gas prices, post-pandemic supply shock, and geopolitics), leading to a crash in demand among price-sensitive buyers; supply and demand got thrown off balance.• Since then, producers have re-adjusted expectations (covering costs + risk, including potential further supply shocks), which tends to support a higher “base price floor,” even if raw-material costs ease. • This means we don’t necessarily see a full reversion to pre-2021 prices. Why some view this as “price-gouging” — and when it might be justified. Given the disconnect between visibly falling energy prices and persistently high fertilizer retail prices, frustration among farmers is understandable. From their point of view, if energy is cheaper, they expect fertilizer to fall too. Some companies, however, may have limited incentives to cut prices quickly, especially when:• Global supply remains tight — so even if production cost falls, the relative value of fertilizer remains high.• They locked in previous higher costs, hedged supplies, or routed production through more expensive logistics/chemical-processing chains.• Investors expect healthy margins after several years of volatility, which can influence pricing strategies. That said, calling it “price-gouging” depends on timing, transparency, and competitive dynamics. In many markets, the elevated prices reflect real, systemic supply-demand mismatches and trade/transport frictions — not necessarily opportunistic profiteering. What’s the “truth” — it’s mixed. • Yes, energy (natural gas) remains a major input — but not the only one, and its relative importance has diminished over time.• No, fertilizers aren’t high solely because of one factor like gas prices — the price now reflects a bundle of global forces: geopolitics, supply-chain disruptions, trade restrictions, strong global demand, and inertia in pricing structures.• From a farmer’s perspective: even when energy costs fall, they may not see equivalent price relief, particularly if global supply remains tight or key export sources (Russia, China) stay constrained.• That said, “price-gouging” is not proven — the evidence suggests most of the price pressure stems from real constraints and structural shifts, not opportunistic behavior. What to watch going forward• Gas-market developments, especially LNG export growth, pipeline supply, and winter demand in Europe — shocks here can ripple quickly into fertilizer costs.• Export policies from fertilizer-producing countries, especially on phosphate/potash, and trade/tariff measures — any relaxation or tightening could move global price baselines significantly.• Global cropping demand trends — shifts in planting decisions (e.g., more corn or soy in Brazil/India) affect global fertilizer demand and thus pressure prices.• Supply-chain and logistics stressors — shipping bottlenecks, port congestion, inland transport disruptions (e.g., river-level declines) remain underappreciated risk points that can sustain high prices even amidst “cheap” raw materials. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins. In Asia, Japan +1.1%. Hong Kong -1.3%. China -0.5%. India flat. In Europe, at midday, London -0.2%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt +0.2%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Dec. 2 | Point Difference from Dec. 1 | % Difference from Dec. 1 |
| Dow | 47,474.46 | +185.13 | +0.39% |
| Nasdaq | 23,413.67 | +137.75 | +0.59% |
| S&P 500 | 6,829.37 | +16.74 | +0.25% |
—Illinois reaches $120 million settlement with Monsanto
State to fund widespread PCB cleanup after decades of contamination
Illinois will receive at least $120 million from Monsanto Co. under a major settlement resolving the state’s lawsuit over decades of PCB contamination. Attorney General Kwame Raoul, who sued the company in 2022, alleged Monsanto knowingly concealed the health and environmental dangers of polychlorinated biphenyls, or PCBs, and continued to manufacture and distribute the chemicals for years.
Under the agreement, $80 million will be paid by March 31 and distributed to Chicago and nine nearby communities, with additional payments to be determined by further legal proceedings. Illinois now joins Washington, Ohio, Oregon and Virginia in securing damages from Monsanto to fund extensive statewide PCB remediation.
PCBs — banned by the EPA since 1979 — are considered “forever chemicals” that persist in soil, water and air for decades. They have been linked to cancers, reproductive harm, neurological issues and bioaccumulation in fish consumed by people. Raoul’s suit detailed how Monsanto discharged large amounts of PCBs from its Krummrich Plant in Sauget, polluting sewers, the Mississippi River and local landfills, leaving groundwater so contaminated it is unusable.
The settlement, which could ultimately reach up to $280 million, marks a significant environmental justice victory for affected Illinois communities. Environmental advocates say the case may signal broader accountability efforts for other persistent pollutants, including PFAS.
—U.S. private sector sheds jobs in November
Biggest payroll decline since 2023 driven by sharp losses at small businesses
U.S. private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, a sharp reversal from October’s upwardly revised 47,000 gain and far worse than expectations for a modest 10,000 increase. It marked the steepest drop in private payrolls since March 2023, driven overwhelmingly by a 120,000-job plunge at small businesses. Medium-sized firms added 51,000 positions and large employers created 39,000.
Losses were concentrated across several key sectors: manufacturing (-18K), professional and business services (-26K), information (-20K), construction (-9K) and financial activities (-9K). Offsetting gains came from education and health services (+33K), leisure and hospitality (+13K), natural resources and mining (+8K) and trade, transportation and utilities (+1K).
ADP chief economist Dr. Nela Richardson said hiring has been “choppy” as employers navigate cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Wage growth continued to cool, with annual pay for job-stayers rising 4.4% (down from 4.5%) and job-changers up 6.3% (down from 6.7%).
—Copper hits fresh record as tariff risks tighten global supply
LME warehouse orders surge and traders brace for a first-quarter squeeze as US tariff uncertainty drives prices deeper into uncharted territory
Copper surged to a fresh all-time high above $11,400 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, fueled by a spike in orders at LME warehouses in Asia and mounting fears that potential U.S. tariffs will intensify an already tightening global market. Prices jumped as much as 2.6%, extending a rally that has pushed the benchmark up more than 30% this year, while U.S. futures have climbed even faster on expectations President Donald Trump will move ahead with levies on primary copper forms.
Record imports into the U.S., driven first by Trump’s February announcement and later by mixed policy signals in late July, have drained inventories and upended physical trade flows. Producers are now charging record premiums in Europe and Asia as buyers compete with U.S. demand, effectively compensating miners for the higher profits they could earn selling into the American market.
Mining shares followed the metal higher, with Chile’s Antofagasta Plc jumping more than 5% to a record. Major trader Mercuria warned last week that these trade dynamics could trigger a major supply squeeze by early 2026, pushing prices further into uncharted territory.
The structural backdrop remains tight as well: disruptions from mines in Chile and Indonesia have constrained supply, while Chinese smelters and miners remain deadlocked in difficult treatment-charge negotiations for 2026. Copper was last up 1.9% at $11,353.50 a ton, while aluminum gained and zinc held steady.
| AG MARKETS |
—More U.S. soybean cargoes headed to China, Reuters reports a surge in December loadings
Exclusive shipping data shows at least six Gulf vessels set to load soybeans by mid-December, marking the fastest pickup in months
A fresh round of U.S. soybean shipments to China is underway following months of near-standstill trade, with Reuters reporting exclusively that at least six bulk vessels are scheduled to load soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December. A seventh vessel departed over the weekend — the first U.S. soybean shipment to China since May — according to a shipping schedule reviewed by Reuters.
The acceleration follows late-October talks between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea and what the White House described as a Chinese pledge to buy 12 million metric tons by year-end, although Beijing has not confirmed the commitment. U.S. producers had been waiting for evidence that the tariff-chilled pipeline would reopen.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the administration expects to finalize details with China this week and will unveil a farmer-aid package next week to offset weak prices and trade disruptions. Rollins previously said aid details would be unveiled this week.
Chinese buyers booked nearly 2 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last month for 2025/26 delivery, USDA data show, but purchases since then have been light and remain far below pre–trade war levels. China’s absence in recent months drove U.S. soybean futures to near five-year lows.
Shipping data showed the Tokugawa was loading soybeans on Tuesday, with the Katagalan Brave up next. Four additional vessels — RB Eden, Hua Xing Hai, Donna Alexandra, and SSI Dominion — are slated to arrive for loading within two weeks.
In a related development, U.S. sorghum exports to China have resumed for the first time since March. The Bungo Queen is loading at a Texas Gulf terminal, while the YM Navigator is scheduled to load next week in the Pacific Northwest.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Dec 2 Close | Change vs Dec 1 |
| Corn | March | 4.50 | +0.05 |
| Soybeans | January | 11.2475 | -0.0325 |
| Soybean Meal | March | 316.60 | -2.90 |
| Soybean Oil | March | 0.5318 | +0.0034 |
| Wheat SRW | March | 5.41 | +0.06 |
| Wheat HRW | March | 5.33 | +0.0625 |
| Spring Wheat | March | 5.8075 | +0.0475 |
| Cotton | March | 0.6457 | -0.0006 |
| Live Cattle | February | 220.80 | +4.875 |
| Feeder Cattle | January | 329.875 | +8.80 |
| Lean Hogs | February | 80.175 | -0.125 |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Wednesday: Oil edges higher as Moscow talks stall; no progress on Ukraine peace push
Lack of breakthrough keeps sanctions risk elevated even as rising U.S. inventories cap gains
Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Wednesday after Russia said five hours of talks with U.S. envoys in Moscow failed to produce a compromise on a potential Ukraine peace agreement — a deal that could have eased sanctions on Russia’s oil sector. Brent rose 1.3% to $63.23 and WTI gained 1.5% to $59.49, partially rebounding from Tuesday’s decline.
Goldman Sachs noted that neither oil markets nor prediction markets are pricing in a high probability of a near-term settlement or sanction relief for Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. Geopolitical tensions also intensified as Ukraine struck oil export sites on the Russian Black Sea coast and hit two sanctioned tankers last week, prompting President Vladimir Putin to threaten action against vessels aiding Ukraine.
Gains were tempered by U.S. supply data: API figures showed crude inventories up 2.48 million barrels last week, alongside sizable increases in gasoline and distillate stocks. The market now awaits official EIA data due later Wednesday.
—Tuesday: Oil prices fall as peace hopes dim and oversupply fears persist
Benchmarks retreat as Russia-Ukraine diplomacy falters, global supply outlook weighs on sentiment
Oil prices slipped Tuesday as traders reassessed geopolitical risks and renewed concerns about oversupply. Brent settled at $62.45, down $0.72, while WTI closed at $58.64, down $0.68, after both benchmarks gained more than 1% on Monday.
Fresh diplomatic activity briefly buoyed markets as President Putin met in Moscow with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, raising speculation of movement toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. But optimism quickly faded when Putin issued sharp warnings to European governments and threatened to restrict Ukraine’s access to the sea following recent strikes on Russia’s shadow-fleet tankers. Analysts said the mixed signals left traders doubtful that a breakthrough is near, noting that Putin’s upcoming trip to India — where he is expected to push deeper energy and defense ties — underscores Moscow’s pivot toward non-Western partners.
Oversupply concerns continued to weigh on prices, with expectations of a sizable surplus in 2026 pressuring sentiment. Those worries were partly offset by escalating attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including weekend strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Novorossiysk terminal and Ukrainian naval-drone hits on tankers headed to Russian ports. A separate tanker incident off the Turkish coast added to the instability.
Geopolitical risk expanded further after President Trump ordered Venezuelan airspace closed, clouding the outlook for the country’s exports. Meanwhile, OPEC+ left production levels unchanged through the first quarter of 2026, slowing its push to regain market share as members grow increasingly concerned that global supply could outpace demand next year.
—U.S. shale keeps outpacing its own warnings
Producers talk down output every spring — only to beat expectations by year’s end, and forecasts show the trend continuing
U.S. shale’s annual ritual of cautious springtime guidance followed by year-end outperformance is alive and well. Despite executives at Diamondback, EOG, and Occidental warning in early 2025 of a looming “tipping point,” plateauing output, or an earlier-than-expected Permian peak, the industry is once again exceeding projections.
Government data show U.S. oil production this quarter rising by roughly 370,000 barrels per day from a year earlier, averaging a record 13.8 million barrels per day — even with WTI crude slipping below $60, ongoing OPEC supply increases, and concerns about tariff-driven economic drag.
A new BloombergNEF long-term outlook helps explain the resilience. Analysts Tara Narayanan and Tai Liu conclude that although the era of near-1-million-barrel-per-day annual growth is over, reports of shale’s decline are premature. Continued technological gains, efficiency improvements, and longer laterals — plus added output from Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico — are expected to push U.S. production to 14.2 million barrels per day by 2030.
With Saudi Arabia pumping around 10 million barrels per day, the U.S. is on track to remain the world’s top oil producer well into the next decade. And for 2026? Despite executive caution, BNEF still sees moderate growth ahead, noting that “U.S. crude oil production is still set to increase.”
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Republican Matt Van Epps wins Tennessee special election as Democrats overperform again
GOP holds safely red TN-7, but tighter-than-expected margin bolsters Democratic hopes for 2026
Republican Matt Van Epps, a former Army helicopter pilot and ex–state official, won the special election in Tennessee’s 7th District on Tuesday, keeping the deep-red seat in GOP hands. But his 54%–45% victory over Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn — in a district President Donald Trump carried by 22 points — marked another notable Democratic overperformance in a year full of them, giving the party fresh momentum heading into the 2026 midterms.
Both parties poured millions into the race as polling tightened in the final stretch. Democrats argued that forcing the GOP to defend a district drawn to be safely red signaled shifting political winds after their strong showings in last month’s off-year elections. DNC Chair Ken Martin called Behn’s showing “historic” and a “flashing warning sign” for Republicans.
Van Epps ran tightly aligned with Trump, benefiting from the president’s endorsement, multiple tele-rallies, and support from prominent GOP figures including Speaker Mike Johnson and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan. Republican outside groups, including MAGA Inc., Club for Growth’s political arm, and Conservatives for American Excellence, spent heavily.
Democrats centered their messaging on affordability and drew backing from House Majority PAC, Planned Parenthood Votes, and Indivisible Action. Progressive stars like Reps. Jasmine Crockett and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigned with Behn, whom Republicans attacked as a “radical.”
A West Point graduate who flew nine combat tours, Van Epps highlighted his military service and vowed to support Trump’s “America First” agenda, particularly on immigration and law-and-order issues.
Of note: Once sworn in, he will bring House Republicans to their full count of 220 members. Two vacancies remain — in Texas’ 18th District and New Jersey’s 11th — with special elections set for early 2026.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Periods of snow, heavy at times, for portions of the Rockies/High
Plains, Pacific Northwest, and the Great Lakes in an active winter-like
pattern… …Moderate to heavy rainfall expected along the Gulf Coast the next
couple days with an isolated risk for flash flooding… …A surge of arctic air is forecast to challenge low temperature records over the Midwest Thursday morning.
