GOP Working on New Farm Aid Package 

Canada, China signal canola trade breakthrough | USDA tells staff to vet foreign research partners

LINKS

Link: House Ag Dems Roll Out Farm and Family Relief Act as
          Counter to Trump Tariffs and SNAP Cost Shifts
Link: Traders See RIN Relief but Flag Downside Risk for Soybean Oil as
          EPA Nears 2026 Biofuel Decision

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 11 
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Jan. 11
 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Jan. 16, 2026

UP FRONT

 TOP STORIES 

— GOP eyes new farm aid as funding talks drag on: Senate Republicans say they are working on another farm assistance package, but size, funding source, and legislative vehicle remain unresolved as talks continue alongside broader spending negotiations.

— 45Z clean fuel rule review slips: A crowded OMB meeting schedule is pushing final Treasury guidance on the 45Z clean fuel tax credit into late January or more likely February, prolonging uncertainty for biofuel markets.

— Soybean oil rallies on firmer RFS timeline: Prices jumped as EPA signaled plans to finalize 2026–27 biofuel rules by March, though confusion over biodiesel volumes, RIN treatment, and SRE reallocation persists.

— Canada/China canola trade thaw: Canada says China will sharply cut canola tariffs by March, reopening a key export market and lifting prices after more than a year of trade disruption.

— USDA tightens scrutiny of foreign research ties: The Trump administration has directed USDA scientists to vet foreign collaborators for security risks, drawing criticism over potential chilling effects on agricultural research.

— Markets steady near highs: Global equities hovered near record levels with light trading ahead of the U.S. holiday, while oil rebounded modestly and the dollar stayed firm as rate-cut bets eased.

— Mosaic flags weak Q4 fertilizer demand: Fourth-quarter fertilizer sales fell sharply amid poor grower economics, but Mosaic struck a more optimistic tone for 2026 on tighter phosphate supply and expected farmer replenishment.

— China nears soybean buying limit: Export data suggest China has largely met its U.S. soybean purchase target, with most volumes still unshipped, limiting scope for near-term additional buying.

— Brazil floods U.S. beef market early: Brazil exhausted its duty-free beef quota in the first week of January, underscoring surging shipments and rising competitive pressure on U.S. producers.

— Sugar loan forfeiture risk remains low: Analysts say U.S. sugar prices remain well above loan rates, giving growers little incentive to forfeit sugar to USDA.

— U.S. lifts FGV palm oil import ban: Customs cleared Malaysian producer FGV after labor reforms, restoring access to the U.S. palm oil market.

— Farm policy aid advances: USDA sent the Farmer Bridge Assistance rule to OMB, clearing the way for most of the $12 billion in near-term farm relief, with specialty-crop funds still delayed.

— Pesticide pre-emption fight resurfaces: House Ag Chair GT Thompson is pressing ahead with EPA-only pesticide labeling language, threatening to further delay the farm bill amid bipartisan resistance.

— Oil markets volatile on geopolitics: Crude prices swung this week as fears of Iran-related disruptions eased, though analysts warn volatility will persist.

— Big Tech targeted on power costs: Lawmakers and the White House are pushing to shift data center grid-upgrade costs from consumers to tech companies as AI-driven electricity demand surges.

— Taiwan/U.S. trade deal reshapes chip supply: A tariff-cutting agreement tied to massive U.S. semiconductor investment marks a major shift in U.S./Taiwan economic relations.

— Senate advances first FY26 spending bills: A bipartisan vote moved three appropriations measures forward, but Homeland Security funding may fall into a continuing resolution.

— 2026 midterms echo — but differ from — 2018: Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman says inflation, redistricting, and a weaker Democratic brand complicate expectations of a classic midterm backlash.

— Weather risks: Snow squalls, strong winds, and colder temperatures threaten travel and farm operations across parts of the Plains and Midwest.

TOP STORIES—GOP eyes new farm aid as funding talks drag onSenate Republicans say work is underway on another ag assistance package, but cost, funding source, and legislative path remain unresolved  Republican leaders on Capitol Hill say they are actively developing an additional aid package for farmers, aiming to attach it to broader spending legislation that Congress has yet to finalize. The players and funding level. Senate Ag Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Senate Appropriations Agriculture Subcommittee Chair John Hoeven (R-N.D.) both confirmed they are working on new assistance for the farm sector. While outside reports have pegged the potential package at roughly $15 billion, Hoeven cautioned against locking in a figure. “I’m not naming the amount,” Hoeven told CQ, adding that he is “not big on making projections,” but emphasized that Republicans are exploring whether additional aid can be secured and attached to a must-pass funding vehicle. He said prospects for doing so are “good,” though far from settled. The Senate discussions come as House Democrats moved first, unveiling their own agriculture aid proposal on Thursday. That plan, however, includes provisions to slow or soften nutrition program changes enacted under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) — a condition that Republicans have signaled is a non-starter. As a result, the path forward for new farm aid remains uncertain. Lawmakers face three major hurdles: 1) agreeing on the total size of the package, 2) identifying a politically acceptable funding source, and 3) finding the right legislative vehicle to carry the aid through Congress. Until those pieces come together, additional relief for farmers remains under negotiation rather than guaranteed.—OMB review of 45Z rule slips toward February as meetings stack upPacked late-January schedule raises odds of further delays for Treasury’s clean fuel tax credit guidance The timeline for final guidance on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit continues to slide as the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) fills its calendar with review sessions stretching into the final week of January. OMB now has 19 meetings scheduled tied to the Treasury Department’s proposed final rule, including sessions with the Transport Project on Jan. 26 and separate meetings on Jan. 27 with Summit Agricultural Group and Anew Climate. While not all meetings forwarded to OMB in past biofuel-related rulemakings have ultimately been held, the current lineup — if it proceeds as scheduled — would effectively push any Treasury announcement on the 45Z credit into very late January, and more likely early February. For biofuel producers, ag groups, and fuel markets awaiting clarity on eligibility and lifecycle emissions rules, the crowded OMB docket underscores that final guidance remains close — but not imminent.—Soybean oil jumps as RFS timeline firms up, policy details remain murkyMarkets cheer signs EPA will finalize 2026–27 biofuel rules in March, even as mixed signals on RINs, biodiesel volumes, and SRE reallocations keep uncertainty high Soybean oil futures rallied Thursday after reports suggested the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is aiming to finalize Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) rules for 2026 and 2027 in March, a move markets see as ending a prolonged period of policy uncertainty. According to Reuters, EPA is no longer expected to halve Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) for imported biofuels or fuels made from imported feedstocks — an idea floated earlier in the rulemaking process. The same report indicated EPA is now working with a biomass-based diesel target range of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons, rather than a fixed 5.6 billion gallons proposed previously. Earlier reporting had also suggested a one-year delay to any reduced-RIN provision, adding to the sense that the agency is recalibrating its approach. Confusion lingered, however, after contrasting signals emerged on social media. White House adviser Peter Navarro stated that imported feedstocks and biofuels would still face reduced RIN values — directly contradicting the Reuters account and underscoring the unsettled nature of the policy debate. Despite that uncertainty, soybean oil prices posted strong gains — somewhat counterintuitive given that a lower biodiesel mandate within the new range, or the removal of penalties on imported feedstocks, would typically temper demand for soyoil. Traders appeared to prioritize the prospect of regulatory clarity over the specific volume math. Notably absent from all reports was any discussion of how EPA might handle reallocation of Renewable Fuel Standard obligations waived through small refinery exemptions (SREs). Whether those waived volumes are reassigned to other obligated parties will materially affect overall RFS demand, making it a critical but unresolved variable moving alongside the main rule. For now, markets seem to be welcoming EPA’s stated intent—reinforced in court filings—to lock in RFS levels by March. The finer points are expected to come into focus once EPA sends the final package to the Office of Management and Budget for review later this month and begins stakeholder meetings, which often surface additional details about the agency’s plans. —Canada, China signal canola trade breakthrough after years of tensionsOttawa says Beijing plans to sharply cut canola tariffs by March, reopening a key export market and easing pressure on Canadian farmers as both sides move to reset strained trade tiesCanada says China is poised to significantly ease punitive tariffs on Canadian canola by March 1, marking a major thaw in a trade dispute that has effectively shut Canadian rapeseed out of its largest market for more than a year. Details: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking during a visit to China, said Beijing has agreed to cut tariffs on rapeseed to about 15%, down from more than 80%, and to suspend anti-discrimination duties on other agricultural products, including canola meal and lobster. China has not formally confirmed the tariff changes but said the two countries agreed to strengthen agricultural cooperation and food security. It is interesting that Canadians aren’t questioning the canola/EV deal like U.S. traders did relative to the soybean purchase commitments even though China has not confirmed either agreement. In a reciprocal move, Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into its market at a tariff rate of roughly 6%, sharply lower than the current 100%. Markets reacted quickly to the announcement, with canola futures rising as much as 2.6% to their highest level since early December. The potential rollback comes after months of negotiations aimed at repairing relations following Canada’s 2024 tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel and aluminum, which prompted Beijing to impose steep duties on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal and launch an anti-dumping investigation into canola. A final decision on those levies has been extended to March 9. Those measures effectively froze a trade worth about C$4.9 billion in 2024, forcing China to seek alternative supplies, including trial cargoes from Australia, and leaving Canadian growers struggling with ample supplies and few export outlets. Analysts say restoring lower tariff rates would help both sides, easing pressure on Canadian farmers while allowing Chinese crushers and aquaculture producers to secure competitively priced canola meal. Carney has framed the deal as part of a broader effort to rebuild ties with Beijing and reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States after sweeping tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. He said the suspension of duties on canola meal and lobster is expected to run from March through at least the end of the year, potentially reopening a critical market for Canadian agricultural exports. Of note: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Friday announced that the currency swap agreement with the Bank of Canada valued at 200 billion yuan ($28.5 billion) has been renewed for five years. —USDA tells staff to vet foreign research partnersTrump administration directive asks USDA scientists to investigate foreign co-authors for security concerns, drawing sharp criticism from researchers  The Trump administration has ordered employees at USDA to scrutinize foreign scientists they collaborate with for signs of “subversive or criminal activity,” according to reporting by ProPublica. Under the directive, staff in the Agricultural Research Service are instructed to conduct basic online background checks on foreign co-authors and forward flagged names to the agency’s Office of Homeland Security. The policy applies not only to researchers from designated “countries of concern” — such as China, Iran, Russia and Venezuela — but also to scientists from allied nations including Canada and Germany. Some USDA employees pushed back internally, calling the policy “dystopic” and warning it could endanger foreign students and postdoctoral researchers working in the U.S. Jennifer Jones of the Union of Concerned Scientists likened the move to McCarthy-era tactics that could chill scientific collaboration. USDA says the policy builds on a Trump-era memorandum aimed at protecting U.S.-funded research from foreign interference. Critics counter that the sweeping approach risks undermining international research partnerships long viewed as essential to U.S. agricultural innovation.

FINANCIAL MARKETS

—Equities today: U.S. futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum from Thursday’s rally and following a quiet night that was devoid of any material earnings or economic data.Global stocks hovered near record highs as investors trimmed bets on near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, keeping the dollar near a six-week peak. Oil rebounded modestly after President Donald Trump struck a wait-and-see tone on geopolitical tensions, while safe-haven gold slipped. European shares were flat, with France lagging on budget uncertainty, and Asian tech stocks hit records on strong TSMC earnings that revived the AI trade. Trading volumes were subdued ahead of the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong -0.3%. China -0.3%. India +0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.2%.

—Equities yesterday: 

Equity Index	Closing Price  Jan. 15	Point Difference  from Jan. 14	% Difference  from Jan. 14
Dow	49,442.44	+292.81	+0.60%
Nasdaq	23,530.02	+58.27	+0.25%
S&P 500	6,944.47	+17.87	+0.26%

—Mosaic flags sharp Q4 fertilizer demand slump, sees brighter 2026 outlook

Weak North American and Brazil markets drag fourth-quarter volumes and cash flow, but tighter phosphate supply and policy support set stage for recovery

The Mosaic Company said North American fertilizer demand fell far more sharply than typical seasonal softness in the fourth quarter of 2025, as poor grower economics and an early winter curtailed fall application. Phosphate markets were hit hardest, with regional shipments estimated down about 20% year over year, reflecting weaker affordability relative to potash.

The downturn weighed heavily on Mosaic’s preliminary fourth-quarter performance. Phosphate sales volumes totaled about 1.3 million tonnes, while potash volumes reached roughly 2.2 million tonnes. To manage weaker demand, the company adjusted phosphate production plans and redirected product toward stronger markets, keeping overall production volumes in line with the prior quarter. Even so, lower sales led to inventory builds and pressured cash flow.

Conditions in Brazil deteriorated further, driven by tightening credit and aggressive supplier competition, including an influx of low-analysis phosphate products from China that squeezed demand and margins. Mosaic Fertilizantes’ fourth-quarter sales fell short of expectations, though full-year volumes of about 9 million tonnes were flat year over year, mirroring the broader market slowdown.

Despite what Mosaic described as an “extraordinarily weak” fourth quarter, management struck a more optimistic tone for 2026. Growers are expected to replenish nutrients after strong 2025 crops, while anticipated government support payments could lift spring application demand in North America. Phosphate markets are viewed as balanced to tight, particularly as China’s newly announced, longer-duration phosphate export restrictions — expected to last at least through the first half of the year— begin to bite. Prices have already moved higher early in 2026.

Potash markets are seen as balanced, with China’s early contract settlement providing added price stability and supporting a positive outlook for Canpotex. Mosaic noted that industry expectations point to potential record global phosphate and potash shipments in 2026. In Brazil, persistent credit constraints remain a risk, but expanding acreage and strong yields could still drive robust fertilizer demand as growers rebuild soil nutrients.

Mosaic plans to release full fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after markets close on Feb. 24, followed by a conference call on Feb. 25.

AG MARKETS

—USDA daily export sales:
• 298,000 MT corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26 
•120,000 MT corn to Japan for 2025/26

—China nears its soybean buying ceiling as shipments lag

Export data suggest Beijing has little room left to add U.S. soybeans, with most purchases still unshipped and “unknown” sales entirely undelivered

China appears close to being finished with its working target of roughly 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybean purchases, based on current export commitments and shipment patterns.

Combined export commitments to China and to “unknown” destinations — including daily sales reported after Jan. 8 — now total 12.334 MMT, already edging past the widely watched 12 MMT threshold. Historically, a meaningful share of “unknown” sales eventually lands in China, suggesting Beijing’s effective coverage is already in place. (Obviously unknown destination sales are never shipped — they are shifted to another country.)

More info: USDA’s Export Sales data lists soybean exports to China totaling 2,092,647 MT since exports began the week ended Dec. 4 and have averaged nearly 349,000 MT over the past six weeks, with the weekly shipments hitting 901,128 MT the week ended Jan. 8.

What stands out is the lack of follow-through on shipments. Some83% of China/unknown haven’t been shipped yet. That shipping backlog sharply reduces the likelihood of significant additional buying in the near term, as Chinese crushers typically wait for vessels to clear before layering on more coverage.

The data point to a market that is commitment-heavy but execution-light. With so much volume still sitting on the books, China has little incentive to add fresh U.S. soybeans unless price spreads improve materially or weather risks threaten South American supplies.

Bottom Line: China has likely satisfied its near-term U.S. soybean needs. Until shipments accelerate and outstanding sales are worked down, any new buying is likely to be incremental at best — reinforcing the idea that the 12 MMT target is effectively met. Also, recall that when this purchase commitment was first announced, more than a few traders, analysts and ag consultants errantly conjectured the purchases would not take place. This again proves many in these groups do not understand geopolitics.

—Brazil floods U.S. beef market as duty-free quota is exhausted in first week

Shipments surge despite higher tariffs, with exporters eyeing record volumes in 2026 as displaced China supply shifts toward the U.S.

Brazil’s beef exports to the United States have begun 2026 at an unprecedented pace, exhausting the entire 52,000-tonne duty-free quota in just the first six days of January, according to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec). Any additional shipments now face a steep 26.4% tariff.

Of note: Most, if not all of the beef was already in the U.S. at bonded warehouses waiting to be withdrawn after Jan. 1 when the quota reset took place.

Abiec president Roberto Perosa said Brazil is on track to ship more than 400,000 tonnes of beef to the U.S. this year, a sharp increase from the 271,000 tonnes exported in 2025 after tariff hikes imposed by the Trump administration dampened volumes. January alone is expected to exceed the quota by roughly 35,000 tonnes, with average monthly shipments projected near 40,000 tonnes.

The rapid quota depletion reflects both strong U.S. demand and tighter access elsewhere. Brazil’s U.S. quota was reduced in 2026 from 65,000 tonnes to 52,000 tonnes after 13,000 tonnes were reallocated to the United Kingdom. Still, exporters filled the smaller allotment faster than ever — compared with mid-January last year and March in 2024 — confirming a sharp acceleration in trade.

Perosa warned that while the U.S. market can absorb additional volume, similar front-loading in China would be far more disruptive, prompting calls for closer government oversight of shipments. Industry estimates suggest that as much as 500,000 tonnes originally destined for China in 2026 could be redirected, with a significant share flowing to the U.S. despite tariffs.

Data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirms Brazil’s early dominance. By contrast, other major suppliers are barely tapping their quotas: Australia has used less than 3% of its 378,200-tonne duty-free allocation under its free-trade agreement; Argentina, New Zealand, and Uruguay have each used only about 1–3% of their quotas so far.

Perspective: While the bulk of Brazil’s expected additional 350,000 tonnes this year will be taxed — making it less competitive than Australian beef — the early surge underscores Brazil’s growing role in the U.S. beef supply and intensifies pressure on domestic producers and rival exporters as 2026 unfolds.

—U.S. sugar prices stay well above support levels, limiting risk of USDA loan forfeitures

Analysts say current market spreads give processors little incentive to walk away from government sugar loans

Some sugar industry analysts say U.S. sugar loan forfeitures are unlikely, pointing to a wide gap between current market prices and federal loan rates that continue to discourage beet and cane growers from surrendering sugar to the government.

Under the U.S. sugar program, administered by USDA, growers can take out non-recourse loans using sugar as collateral. If market prices fall below loan rates plus storage and interest costs, processors may choose to forfeit the sugar rather than repay the loan. That mechanism effectively creates a price floor but can also result in USDA accumulating excess stocks if market conditions deteriorate sharply.

Price cushion limits forfeiture incentives. Analysts note that current wholesale sugar prices remain comfortably above loan rates for both raw cane sugar and refined beet sugar. That price cushion means growers still have a clear financial incentive to repay loans and sell sugar into the commercial market rather than forfeit it to USDA.

In practical terms, forfeiture only becomes attractive when prices fall enough that selling sugar fails to cover loan repayment costs. With today’s spreads, that threshold is not close, even after accounting for carrying charges such as storage, transportation, and interest.

Supply management also playing a role. The sugar program’s broader supply management tools further reduce forfeiture risk. USDA adjusts import quotas and domestic marketing allotments to balance supply with demand, helping prevent prolonged price collapses that could trigger widespread loan defaults.

Analysts emphasize that unless there is a major demand shock, a surge in imports beyond quota expectations, or a sharp economic downturn that drags prices materially lower, forfeitures are unlikely to become a systemic issue.

—U.S. lifts forced-labor import ban on Malaysian palm oil producer

Customs agency clears FGV Holdings’ shipments after company addresses labor violations, restoring access to U.S. market

The U.S. has lifted its import ban on palm oil and palm oil products produced by FGV Holdings, concluding that the Malaysian firm has taken sufficient steps to remedy earlier allegations of forced labor on its plantations. In a statement dated Thursday, U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it will no longer detain FGV palm oil shipments at U.S. ports of entry, effective immediately, provided the products otherwise comply with U.S. law.

CBP first imposed the ban in 2020 under a withhold release order tied to forced-labor concerns. FGV petitioned the agency in July 2024 to modify the order, citing reforms across its operations and supply chain.

FGV said the decision reflects “significant progress” in improving labor standards, closing compliance gaps, and implementing sustainable practices. Group CEO Fakhrunniam Othman said the outcome demonstrates FGV’s commitment to ethical operations and its ability to meet international standards, emphasizing that worker rights and welfare remain central to the company’s approach.

FGV is among the world’s largest palm oil producers. It was delisted from the Malaysian stock exchange in August last year after being taken over by the state-owned Federal Land Development Authority (Felda), which surpassed the 90% ownership threshold required for a full takeover.

—Cotton AWP rises. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton increased to 51.17 cents per pound, effective today (Jan. 16), up from 50.97 cents per pound the prior week. This marks the fourth weekly increase in the AWP, further trimming the LDP available to 0.83 cents.

—Agriculture markets yesterday:

Commodity	Contract  Month	Close Jan. 15	Change vs.  Jan. 14
Corn	March	$4.20 1/4	-1 3/4¢
Soybeans	March	$10.53	+10 1/2¢
Soybean Meal	March	$289.10	-$2.80
Soybean Oil	March	52.87¢	+1.99¢
SRW Wheat	March	$5.10 1/2	-2¢
HRW Wheat	March	$5.17 1/4	-5¢
Spring Wheat	March	$5.62 1/2	-4 1/2¢
Cotton	March	64.71¢	-0.28¢
Live Cattle	February	$236.05	+$0.90
Feeder Cattle	March	$364.55	+$4.87
Lean Hogs	February	$87.80	+$2.10

FARM POLICY

—USDA sends farmer aid program rule to White House budget office

Final OMB review clears path for bulk of $12B farm relief as specialty-crop funds lag

USDA has formally advanced the final rule for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program to the White House budget office, marking a key procedural step toward releasing billions in near-term farm aid. The Farm Service Agency submitted the rule to the Office of Management and Budget for review, a required checkpoint before implementation.

The administration is targeting delivery of $11 billion of the $12 billion total in assistance by the end of February, focusing first on major crops. Brooke Rollins reiterated this week that $1 billion earmarked for specialty crops will be delayed and excluded from the initial rollout, with program details for that tranche still under development.

Once OMB review concludes, USDA expects to finalize and publish the rule, enabling payments to begin under the FBA framework while specialty-crop guidance follows on a separate timeline.

—Pesticide pre-emption fight reignites, threatening to further delay farm bill

House Ag Chair GT Thompson presses ahead with EPA-only pesticide labeling plan despite bipartisan resistance and pressure from the Make America Healthy Again movement

A simmering fight over pesticide policy is emerging as a fresh obstacle to Congress’s already-stalled farm bill, with House Ag Committee Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) vowing to revive a controversial proposal to limit state and local regulation of pesticide labeling. In a Bloomberg interview this week, Thompson said federal pre-emption is “absolutely necessary,” arguing that allowing states to impose additional warnings beyond Environmental Protection Agency requirements would create a patchwork of rules, raise compliance costs for manufacturers, and ultimately drive up food prices. The provision would designate the EPA as the sole authority over pesticide labeling.

The proposal has drawn renewed opposition from Democrats, some Republicans, and health advocates who say it would weaken state consumer protections and shield chemical companies from liability. The language previously appeared in Thompson’s 2024 farm bill draft and resurfaced in a fiscal 2026 spending minibus, prompting public opposition from Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), both of whom criticized the measure on social media.

Democrats are signaling the issue could fracture Republican support. Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine.) said she worked to strip the provision from the minibus before it cleared the House earlier this month and is now coordinating with advocates aligned with the Make America Healthy Again movement to pressure lawmakers if the language reappears in the farm bill. Pingree said those advocates were actively contacting members during an earlier appropriations markup.

House Ag Committee ranking member Angie Craig (D-Minn.) warned Thompson during a press conference last week that pesticide preemption could splinter the GOP caucus. “Frankly, their own members are going to come under tremendous pressure from the Make America Healthy Again movement if preemption for pesticides is included in their farm bill,” Craig said.

The dispute comes as Bayer AG is seeking U.S. Supreme Court intervention in thousands of lawsuits alleging that its Roundup weedkiller causes cancer — an appeal the Trump administration backed in December. Bayer-backed Modern Agriculture Alliance has argued that the legislative language would not affect existing or future litigation, but would instead clarify that EPA is the “sole authority” over pesticide labeling and packaging requirements.

Thompson has brushed aside the opposition, noting that House Ag Committee members — including four Democrats — previously voted to advance the proposal as part of his 2024 farm bill effort. That bill, however, was never brought to the House floor by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

Thompson also said he has pushed back the timeline for introducing the new farm bill from January to late February, citing the need for updated scoring from the Congressional Budget Office and for the Republican steering committee to fill the House Agriculture Committee seat left vacant by the death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.).

As the farm bill clock continues to slip, the pesticide pre-emption fight is shaping up as a major fault line — one that could further delay, or complicate, efforts to move comprehensive farm legislation this year.

NOMINATIONS

—EPA opens nominations for new Farm, Ranch & Rural Advisory panel

Agency seeks producer-led input on environmental policy through 2025–2027 committee appointments

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is seeking nominations for its Farm, Ranch, and Rural Communities Advisory Committee, a panel that advises the EPA administrator on environmental policies affecting agriculture and rural America.

According to a notice published in the Federal Register (link), nominations are due March 2 for committee terms covering 2025–2027. The advisory committee may include up to 21 members, each eligible to serve no more than three two-year terms.

EPA said it intends for a majority of the committee to be actively engaged in farming or ranching, while also allowing participation from allied industries, academia, and research organizations. Members are expected to serve as representatives of specific stakeholder groups, conveying sector perspectives rather than individual or technical expertise.

The committee’s role is to provide advice, information, and recommendations on environmental issues and policies with direct implications for producers and rural communities.

ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY

—Friday: Oil prices edge higher as Iran risks keep markets on alert

Geopolitical tensions continue to underpin crude prices, even as immediate fears of U.S. military action ease and analysts flag ample global supply 

Oil prices ticked higher Friday as markets remained focused on geopolitical risks tied to Iran, despite signs that the likelihood of a near-term U.S. military strike has receded.

Brent crude rose 50 cents, 0.78%, to $64.26 a barrel by mid-morning in London, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 48 cents, 0.81%, to $59.67. Brent was on track for a fourth straight weekly gain.

Both benchmarks touched multi-month highs earlier in the week after protests flared in Iran and President Donald Trump signaled that military action was under consideration. That risk premium eased somewhat late Thursday after Trump said Tehran’s crackdown on protesters appeared to be slowing, tempering fears of supply disruptions.

Still, analysts warned that volatility is likely to persist. Analysts note that potential political upheaval in Iran could keep prices choppy as markets weigh the risk of supply interruptions and while immediate supply risks have softened, they remain significant in the near term.

Any renewed escalation would also refocus attention on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor through which roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil flows, amplifying market sensitivity to headlines.

Looking further out, analysts see rising supply acting as a cap on sustained price gains. Unless there is a clear rebound in Chinese demand or a tangible bottleneck in physical oil flows, some analysts say crude prices are likely to remain range-bound, with Brent broadly trading between $57 and $67 a barrel.

—Thursday: Oil prices drop after Trump signals easing Iran tensions

Geopolitical risk premium unwinds as supply concerns lessen and inventories build

Oil prices fell sharply Thursday, snapping a five-day rally after President Donald Trump said Iran’s crackdown on nationwide protests appeared to be easing, reducing fears of imminent military action and potential supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures dropped about $2.76, or roughly 4%, to settle in the mid-$60s per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slid nearly $2.83, about 4.6%, toward the $59 mark. Both benchmarks had climbed earlier in the week to multi-month highs amid geopolitical risk premiums.

Analysts and traders said Trump’s remarks that killings in Iran were slowing and there were no current plans for large-scale executions helped deflate the tension-driven price spike. That easing of risk sentiment, combined with data showing larger-than-expected increases in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, weighed on the market.

Additional bearish pressure came from indications that Venezuelan oil production cuts are reversing and crude exports are resuming, adding to global supply expectations. On the demand side, OPEC’s latest outlook forecasts oil consumption growth in 2027 at a pace like this year’s, and its data suggest supply and demand could be nearly in balance in 2026 — a backdrop that may cap further upside.

In sum, the combination of reduced geopolitical fears, inventory builds, and signs of growing supply helped unwind much of the recent oil price rally.

—Hamm halts Bakken drilling as low oil prices squeeze shale margins

Shale pioneer Harold Hamm says collapsing profitability has erased the incentive to drill in North Dakota’s Bakken for the first time in more than three decades, underscoring mounting pressure on U.S. producers amid lower crude prices and rising costs

Harold Hamm, the billionaire oilman who helped ignite the U.S. shale revolution, says he is preparing to shut down drilling in North Dakota’s Bakken shale — a historic retreat from the basin where he first proved that fracking could unlock vast oil reserves. “This will be the first time in over 30 years that Harold Hamm has not had an operation with drilling rigs in North Dakota,” Hamm said in a Bloomberg interview, adding that today’s economics no longer justify new wells. “There’s no need to drill it when margins are basically gone.”

The decision marks a symbolic moment for the Bakken, once the epicenter of the U.S. crude boom that reshaped global energy markets and helped propel the United States to become the world’s largest oil producer. Hamm’s breakthroughs there laid the groundwork for the modern shale industry.

Now, rising costs and falling prices are reversing that momentum. According to BloombergNEF, the average Bakken well needs roughly $58 a barrel to break even and generate a modest profit — a threshold that has climbed nearly 4% over the past year due to higher drilling and service expenses. By contrast, U.S. benchmark crude has slid about 25% over the past year, recently settling near $59 a barrel, leaving little room for error.

Hamm, co-founder and chairman of Continental Resources Inc., said producers across the country are reassessing activity levels as concerns grow about a global oil glut. He pointed to a broad pullback in U.S. drilling, with rig counts down about 15% over the past year — including sharp reductions in the Permian Basin, the nation’s most prolific oil field.

While Hamm is a vocal supporter of President Donald Trump, the slowdown highlights growing tension between oil producers and an administration intent on keeping crude prices low to help curb inflation — even as policies to boost supply, including moves tied to Venezuela, add further pressure to markets.

Hamm said he remains open to returning to the Bakken if prices recover, but emphasized that drillers ultimately have little control over the market. “We’re price takers — not price makers,” he said. “See what we can get.”

—Washington targets big tech over data center power costs

Lawmakers and the White House push to shift grid upgrade costs from consumers to AI giants as electricity bills rise

As Washington intensifies its focus on easing the cost-of-living squeeze ahead of this year’s midterm elections, Big Tech has joined credit card issuers and drugmakers in the regulatory crosshairs — this time over who pays to power the explosion of artificial intelligence data centers.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) this week introduced legislation that would require large technology companies to shoulder the bulk of the costs for electric-grid upgrades needed to support new data centers. The goal, Van Hollen said, is to prevent households from seeing higher utility bills as tech firms race to expand AI infrastructure. “What we hope to do is create a national set of rules so that no matter where someone wants to build a data center, consumers know they are not going to get screwed with the costs,” Van Hollen told the New York Times.

The stakes are significant. U.S. tech giants are projected to spend $1.2 trillion on AI infrastructure by 2030, according to a new Bank of America report — investment that will sharply increase demand on an already strained power grid. This pressure is beginning to show up in electricity prices, a trend underscored in the latest Consumer Price Index data.

The issue has also drawn attention from President Donald Trump, who warned this week that Americans should not bear higher power bills because of data centers. In a Truth Social post, Trump said his administration has been working with Microsoft, which pledged that it would “pay our way to ensure our datacenters don’t increase your electricity prices.”

The challenge is most acute in the Mid-Atlantic, home to the nation’s largest electricity market run by PJM Interconnection. PJM serves 13 states and hosts the highest concentration of data centers in the country.

To address the imbalance, the White House and several governors are expected to unveil a plan requiring PJM to hold a special auction allowing tech companies to bid directly for new electricity contracts — effectively forcing them to finance new power generation. Administration officials told Bloomberg and the New York Times that such an auction could raise as much as $15 billion.

PJM itself, however, appears to be on the sidelines. A company spokesperson said the grid operator was not involved in planning the announcement, underscoring the unusual and politically charged nature of the push.

Bottom Line: As AI investment accelerates, Washington is moving to make sure the power bill for America’s digital build-out is paid by Big Tech — not by households already squeezed by higher costs.

TRADE POLICY

—Taiwan strikes trade deal with Trump, commits billions to U.S. Chip manufacturing

Agreement cuts tariffs on Taiwanese goods in exchange for massive U.S. semiconductor investment, stirring debate in Taipei over economic security and industrial hollowing-out

The United States and Taiwan have reached a sweeping trade agreement that lowers U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese goods while locking in as much as $250 billion in new Taiwanese investment in U.S. semiconductor and technology manufacturing — an accord the Trump administration framed as a step toward restoring American chipmaking leadership.

Under the deal, the administration will cut tariffs on Taiwanese imports to 15% from 20%, bringing Taiwan in line with Japan and South Korea. In return, Taiwan committed to expanding chip production and related supply-chain activity in the United States, with an additional $250 billion in credit guarantees from Taipei to help smaller suppliers follow major manufacturers stateside.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the goal is U.S. self-sufficiency in semiconductor capacity, adding that Washington ultimately wants to relocate roughly 40% of Taiwan’s chip supply chain to the United States.

The agreement caps months of negotiations centered on Taiwan’s dominance in advanced semiconductors — a sector that accounts for roughly 90% of Taiwan’s trade surplus with the U.S. While many high-tech exports, including chips, were already exempt from broad tariffs, the deal formalizes preferential treatment for Taiwanese chipmakers with U.S. fabs, allowing limited duty-free imports tied to their American production capacity.

At the center of the pact is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Its previously announced $100 billion expansion in Arizona counts toward the $250 billion commitment, and the company confirmed plans for additional U.S. fabs after acquiring more land in the state. TSMC, which supplies chips to companies like Apple and Nvidia, says the expansion reflects customer demand driven by artificial intelligence rather than geopolitics, though it has acknowledged higher costs and longer build times in the U.S. compared with Taiwan.

In Taipei, the deal has triggered unease. Semiconductor manufacturing is not only the backbone of Taiwan’s economy but is widely viewed as a strategic asset that helps deter pressure from China. Officials stressed that the most advanced chipmaking will remain at home, even as production expands abroad. Still, economists warn that relocating supply chains could strain smaller Taiwanese suppliers operating on thin margins—despite U.S. promises of support with land, power, water, tax incentives, and visas.

Skeptics also point to Washington’s broader industrial strategy, including U.S. backing for Intel, as a sign that Taiwan may face stiffer competition once American capacity is rebuilt. As one Taiwanese economist put it, if the U.S. ultimately secures its own end-to-end chip supply chain, Taiwan’s leverage — and perceived security — could diminish.

For now, the deal marks a major shift in U.S./Taiwan economic relations: lower tariffs in the near term, and a long, politically sensitive push to redraw the global map of semiconductor manufacturing.

CONGRESS

—Senate advances first FY 2026 spending package

Bipartisan vote moves three-agency appropriations bills forward, but Homeland Security funding may slip into a continuing resolution

The Senate on Thursday approved its first major spending package for fiscal year (FY) 2026, clearing a three-agency appropriations measure on an 82–15 bipartisan vote. The package combines funding for the Commerce-Justice-Science, Energy-Water, and Interior-Environment bills, marking an early step in what is expected to be a difficult appropriations cycle.

Lawmakers are heading out for a week-long recess but say they intend to resume work on the remaining funding measures when they return. Even so, several senators acknowledged that completing all twelve appropriations bills on time will be challenging.

Lawmakers flagged the Homeland Security spending bill as a likely “candidate” for a continuing resolution, signaling that at least some parts of the federal government could face temporary funding extensions if negotiations stall later this year.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

—Why 2026 feels like 2018 — and why it may break the pattern

David Wasserman argues that while history points toward a midterm backlash against President Trump, inflation, redistricting battles, and a weaker Democratic brand could reshape the outcome 

Writing for the Cook Political Report, David Wasserman says the 2026 midterms are again setting up as a referendum on Donald Trump, much like 2018 — but with important twists that could limit or complicate a Democratic replay of that “blue wave.”

Why 2026 looks different from 2018

• Inflation and global instability dominate. Unlike 2018, when inflation barely registered, today’s voters are deeply pessimistic about prices and purchasing power. Trump’s approval on the economy now trails his overall approval, and foreign policy flashpoints — from Venezuela to broader geopolitical saber-rattling — risk compounding voter unease.

•Redistricting is far more volatile. Instead of isolated court-ordered fixes like Pennsylvania in 2018, this cycle has seen an all-out redistricting arms race in states including Texas, California, Missouri, and North Carolina. While Republicans hoped to lock in structural advantages, the net effect so far looks closer to a wash, with only modest potential gains still on the table.

•More retirements, fewer easy flips. House retirements are piling up on both sides, but unlike 2018, there aren’t many genuinely vulnerable open GOP seats left. Most competitive Republican districts have already changed hands in prior cycles, leaving Democrats fewer “low-hanging fruit” despite favorable national conditions.

•A weaker Democratic brand. Voter dissatisfaction with Trump mirrors 2018 levels, but Democrats are less trusted as an alternative. Party favorability has deteriorated sharply since the Obama era, narrowing Democrats’ generic ballot advantage and forcing many candidates to run as independents from their own party.

•Republicans are better funded. Democrats no longer enjoy the overwhelming cash advantage they had eight years ago. Pro-Trump outside groups are flush with money, and potential Supreme Court changes to campaign finance rules could further level the playing field.

Why 2026 still echoes 2018

•Health care is again a central issue. Just as GOP efforts to repeal Obamacare backfired in 2018, Medicaid cuts and ACA premium spikes now give Democrats potent messaging on affordability and access.

•Democrats hold an enthusiasm edge. Special election data show Democrats consistently turning out a larger share of their presidential-year voters than Republicans, reinforcing the familiar midterm problem for Trump-aligned voters when he’s not on the ballot.

•National security candidates are in vogue. Democrats are once more leaning on veterans and former intelligence officials — candidates with résumés that blunt GOP attacks and proved effective in 2018.

•No single Democratic leader defines the party. As in 2018, Democrats are emerging from primaries ideologically diverse and leader light. Wasserman argues that, in a Trump-centered political environment, that lack of cohesion is more a feature than a bug.

•The Senate map favors Republicans. Even if Democrats make gains in the House, the Senate map — heavy with red and deep-red states — could again produce a split Congress, just as it did eight years ago.

Bottom Line: Wasserman’s takeaway is that history still points toward midterm losses for the party in power, but 2026 is not a simple rerun of 2018. Inflation, geopolitics, redistricting, and party branding mean Democrats may win — yet fall short of the kind of sweeping mandate they enjoyed during Trump’s first midterm.

WEATHER

— NWS outlook: Widespread snow squalls will create dangerous travel conditions for portions of the Northern/Central Plains and Midwest through tonight… …Very gusty winds for much of the Northern/Central Plains today… …Cooler temperatures spread from Central to Eastern U.S. this weekend.