Gov’t Shutdown: Back to the Brink
Defining ‘Made in Asia’: The hidden flashpoint in Trump’s China trade war
Link: Trump’s Asia Trade Blitz: U.S./China Deal Spurs Wave of Regional Accords
Link: Bessent: Soybean Farmers to Benefit from U.S./China Trade Deal
Finalized Alongside TikTok Agreement
Link: Trump Boosts Canada Tariffs After Ontario Ad
Link: Weekend Updates, Oct. 25: Trump to Offer Concessions to China
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 24
Updates:
U.S./CHINA TRADE AND AGRICULTURE
— U.S. and China strike upbeat tone as trade truce nears extension
— Why U.S. ag trade agreement with China needs to include cotton
— ASA encouraged by U.S./China trade talks
— Corn and soybean growers welcome expanded Asian market access for ethanol,
corn products and soybeans
— Defining ‘Made in Asia’: The hidden flashpoint in Trump’s China trade war
SOCIAL POLICY AND ECONOMY
— Social Security COLA to rise 2.8% in 2026, but Medicare costs will offset gains
WASHINGTON FOCUS
— Government shutdown impasse and Senate outlook
— Key government shutdown flashpoints to watch
— Washington outlook for the week
— Trade & tariffs: Senate set to spark votes (even without House support)
— Why the trade tariff votes matter
— Watch-list for trade policy this week
— Agriculture & antitrust: Senate Judiciary tests seed-fertilizer sector
— Why the antitrust hearing is high leverage
— Key players & lines of inquiry at input hearing
— Policy ripple effects to monitor after input hearing
— Monetary policy: This week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting
— FOMC background
— FOMC risks to watch
— What to expect following FOMC confab
— Asia blitz: President Trump’s five-day trade trip to Asia
— Trump agenda and aims
— Trump trip implications for Washington
— Bottom line perspectives in Washington this week
OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS
— Trump and trade-related events
— Agriculture and fertilizer hearings
— Broader economic & supply-chain context and other nominations
ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS
— Key economic reports for week of Oct. 27
KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS
— Agricultural focus: crop, trade, and commodity updates
KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS
— Global energy focus: oil majors’ earnings and summit week
The Week Ahead: Oct. 27, 2025
— U.S. and China strike upbeat tone as trade truce nears extensionBessent cites ‘very successful framework’ ahead of Trump-Xi summit; Beijing confirms preliminary consensus on key economic issues U.S. and Chinese officials projected optimism following two days of trade talks in Malaysia, signaling progress toward stabilizing relations before President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet later this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the meetings produced “a very successful framework for the leaders to discuss on Thursday,” while China’s Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang confirmed that “the two sides have reached preliminary consensus” on key economic and trade issues. The discussions covered export controls, tariffs, rare earths, fentanyl precursor chemicals, TikTok, and renewed U.S. agricultural purchases — all critical areas of dispute in the countries’ long-running trade war. Bessent said the U.S. and China had agreed to delay Beijing’s planned restrictions on rare-earth exports for one year, and that substantial Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods were part of the framework. Bessent also suggested that the temporary tariff truce set to expire Nov. 10 is likely to be extended, though final decisions rest with President Trump. “Coming out of this meeting, I would say yes,” he told reporters, citing broad progress on several fronts. Trump, arriving in Malaysia ahead of a week of regional meetings, said he hopes to leave the Xi summit with “a complete deal.” The talks come amid renewed friction, with the U.S. expanding its tech sanctions and China tightening rare-earth controls earlier this month. The weekend negotiations mark the fifth round of high-level talks this year and could pave the way for follow-up visits — with Trump expected to travel to China in early 2026 and Xi potentially visiting the U.S. later next year. Both sides are framing the outcome as a step toward de-escalation and a return to structured economic engagement after months of tit-for-tat measures that rattled markets and disrupted supply chains. For markets: This reduces one major tail-risk (rare-earth supply shock; forecast soybean purchases) but underscores the fragility of the framework — the agreement remains “preliminary” and depends on leader-level endorsement, so downside risks persist if either side stalls. Key questions ahead: • The formal summit between Trump and Xi: Does it produce a signed deal, or merely a memorandum of intent? • The exact terms of the rare-earth deferral: Does China simply freeze the controls, or agree to rollback them?• Whether U.S. tariffs (especially the threatened 100 % tariffs) are officially abandoned and how other sectors (e.g., agriculture, technology, energy) are integrated into the deal. • Which U.S. commodities are covered in signaled China purchases beyond soybeans? (Sorghum, cotton, meat?)• The reaction of Europe and other major tech/industrial countries: Will they align with the U.S. stance on rare‐earth supply chains, or push for a multilateral approach?• Industry signals: Are rare-earth permits being more promptly approved? Are supply-chain announcements forthcoming from major manufacturers? Perspective: What some in Washington and the U.S. ag sector do not realize is that with all the hullabaloo relative to Argentine beef coming to the U.S., there is a bigger play going on: China. This is why President Trump wants better economic relations with both Brazil and Argentina and those are key parts of Trump’s approach to China. And America First defined for the second term of the Trump administration means American consumers first. But Trump administration contacts say that does not mean the president has forgotten about the key sector — agriculture — that has supported him the most among all sectors. This is why Trump and his top officials are trying to get a new trade agreement with China that is enforceable and expansive, but also is supporting bridge aid/funding to the ag sector until Trump’s trade policies kick in with positive results. Trump, meanwhile, will also support pending congressional aid ahead that will help the ag sector bridge the gap until a better safety net kicks in. — Why U.S. ag trade agreement with China needs to include cotton. A cotton grower emails: “Talking about potential or probable purchases by China of U.S. soybeans and grain sorghum, for those of us in the south, we are all hoping to see cotton included in trade discussions as well. The town I live in, much like others across the Carolinas, was once dominated by textile mills and furniture factories, both industries long since abandoning their facilities. While the local processing of fiber into finished product is gone, the love southern farmers have for cotton still remains as large as ever. Many of us would rather plant cotton and corn than even look at soybeans, but input prices demand otherwise. I have seen little to no mention of my favorite row crop in any discussion on Chinese trade. Do you believe cotton will be a part of a Chinese trade deal, or will cotton continue it’s long decline in the south contending with ever increasing acres in Brazil, petroleum fibers, and decreasing export opportunity? 64-cent cotton isn’t good for anyone involved, even producers like my family, who still use a basket picker instead of the Deere baler pickers. If cotton could find a way to buy acres, especially getting above 85-90 cents per pound, I believe it could easily regain 3 million acres across its growing region. That would certainly benefit corn, milo, and maybe even soybeans with reduced acres to those crops.” Upshot: The apparent U.S./China trade agreement should include cotton for all of the solid reasons the producer cited. And there’s another one: Trump always states America First. That should include U.S. cotton producers as well. — ASA encouraged by U.S./China trade talksSoybean growers welcome progress and anticipate potential purchase commitments in Trump/Xi meeting The American Soybean Association (ASA) expressed optimism as U.S./China trade discussions advance, signaling possible renewed market access for U.S. soybeans. “ASA is encouraged by Secretary Bessent’s comments that trade talks with China are productive and include U.S. soybeans,” said ASA President Caleb Ragland, a soybean farmer from Magnolia, Kentucky. “Signals of purchase commitments are a positive step, and we look forward to learning more details later this week. We appreciate the White House and trade negotiators keeping U.S. soybeans at the center of discussions and are hopeful Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and President Xi will result in a trade deal that delivers results for our farmers.” Of note: The ASA, which represents nearly 500,000 soybean farmers across 30 states, continues to urge both governments to prioritize agricultural trade in the ongoing negotiations. — Corn and soybean growers welcome expanded Asian Market Access for ethanol, corn products and soybeansNCGA praises Trump administration’s new trade frameworks with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam; Soybean group praises Trump administration for boosting U.S. farm exports The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) expressed strong support following the Trump administration’s announcement of new trade deals and frameworks across Asia that expand market access for U.S. ethanol and corn-based products. NCGA President Jed Bower said the elimination of ethanol tariffs in Malaysia and Cambodia and new agricultural purchase commitments in Thailand and Vietnam mark a significant win for corn growers. “This is all very good news for the nation’s corn growers,” Bower said. “Eliminating tariffs on ethanol exports to Malaysia and Cambodia will boost demand. We are encouraged to see that the framework for Thailand included agriculture purchases of corn and DDGS. The announced framework for Vietnam is also promising, as this is already a robust market for DDGS and corn growers are well positioned to supply corn and ethanol as well. We look forward to reviewing more details on the frameworks for Thailand and Vietnam. Corn growers have been calling for deals that will open new markets, and we applaud the Trump administration for listening and acting on our request.” Meanwhile, the American Soybean Association (ASA) also welcomed the new trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, along with framework accords announced for Vietnam and Thailand. The White House highlighted multiple provisions aimed at expanding U.S. soybean exports, including the reduction or removal of agricultural tariffs, a Thai commitment to purchase $2.6 billion annually in U.S. soybean meal and feed commodities, and new language easing non-tariff barriers such as biotechnology and sanitary-phytosanitary rules. ASA President Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky soybean farmer, commended the administration’s actions, stating: “We appreciate President Trump’s recognition of the promise markets in Southeast Asia hold for U.S. soybean exports, and we applaud the work of the administration to increase market access in that region.” Ragland added that ASA “looks forward to future deals like these that reduce tariffs and ensure continued and increased market access for U.S. agriculture,” urging all parties to finalize the frameworks swiftly. — Defining ‘Made in Asia’: The hidden flashpoint in Trump’s China trade warUncertainty over U.S. “rule of origin” threatens to upend Southeast Asia’s fragile role in global supply chains A growing unease is rippling through Southeast Asia as President Donald Trump’s administration advances its second-term trade offensive against China. The New York Times reports that the central — and largely overlooked — question involves how Washington will define the origin of goods in an interconnected world where nearly everything, from smartphones to car parts, is assembled from components sourced across multiple borders. “It’s a sleeper issue,” Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told the Times. “People think it’s just technical, but if you take a step back, it’s all going to rest on this.” Trump has made clear his goal is to strip China of its position at the start of global supply chains. Yet in doing so, his administration is forcing Southeast Asian economies — many of which host factories that rely heavily on Chinese inputs — into a high-stakes balancing act. According to the Times, the White House is weighing a so-called “rule of origin” threshold of 30%, meaning that any product shipped to the U.S. with more than 30% of its value derived from foreign content could face a 40% “transshipment” tariff. That standard could prove punishing for nations like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, where Chinese materials and machinery are embedded in billions of dollars’ worth of exports. “All we can do is express our concerns — hopefully, they are listening to the confusion,” said Siobhan Das, chief executive of AmCham Malaysia, in comments to the New York Times. The administration’s lack of clarity has cast a shadow over Trump’s newly announced trade frameworks with several Southeast Asian nations. While those agreements acknowledged transshipment and tariff evasion risks, The Times noted that none provided a clear definition of what counts as “local” content. Analysts warn the consequences could be far-reaching. “If tariffs were to snap back to their original levels, that would be devastating,” Daniel Kritenbrink, a former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam, told the Times. The outcome could determine whether Southeast Asia remains a critical manufacturing hub — or becomes collateral damage in Trump’s effort to isolate Beijing. Bottom Line: As Trump prepares to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea later this week, the unresolved question of what it means for a product to be “Made in Asia” could prove to be the defining test of his new trade order. — Social Security COLA to rise 2.8% in 2026, but Medicare costs will offset gainsAverage retirement benefit climbs to $2,071, though rising Part B premiums may eat into increase Social Security beneficiaries will see a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026, adding about $56 to the average monthly retirement check, which will rise to $2,071. The increase, announced Friday, is meant to help recipients keep pace with inflation — but many will see only modest gains once Medicare premiums are deducted. The standard Medicare Part B premium is projected to increase to $206.50 per month, up from $185 in 2025, reducing much of the COLA’s impact. Higher-income seniors will face additional charges under the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA), which applies to Parts B and D and is based on income reported two years prior. While the COLA is designed to protect retirees’ purchasing power, advocates note it often lags behind real-world inflation, particularly for healthcare and housing. Experts advise reviewing Part D drug plans or Medicare Advantage options during the current open enrollment period, and checking eligibility for the Extra Help program, which lowers prescription drug costs for low-income seniors. |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
— The Senate is in this week (but the House is not), with the clock ticking on the federal shutdown — and multiple knock-on effects mounting across agencies and programs.
— The gov’t shutdown impasse. The federal government shutdown began on Oct. 1,after neither a GOP stop-gap bill nor the Democratic version that included hundreds of billions of dollars in health-care subsidy extensions could clear the United States Senate.
President Donald Trump and his administration have used the shutdown as leverage, freezing roughly $26 billion in funding for Democratic-leaning states early on.
Recall last Monday, the the White House’s economic adviser signaled the shutdown “is likely to end this week.” NEC Director Keving Hassett was wrong in that assessment. However, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y). said Democrats sought a meeting with the president, which Trump deeming “unserious” and deferring. Trump on Tuesday rebuffed the request, saying: “I would like to meet with both of them, but I said one little caveat, I will only meet if they let the country open,” Trump told reporters, referencing the request by Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to meet “anytime, anyplace.” All but three senators in the Democratic caucus are withholding their support for the Republican-led stopgap funding bill, unless Trump and enough Republican lawmakers agree to an extension of an enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credit that is due to expire on Dec. 31.
Meanwhile, the shutdown is already putting pressure on major macro-indicators: job-growth data, business sentiment, consumer spending. The Federal Reserve will head into its next meeting this week with incomplete data. And the White House said the October CPI report would not be released.
If the shutdown continues into early November, there will likely not be another USDA Crop Production report or WASDE. The lack of USDA reports is getting market sensitive if as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, China will buy a “substantial” amount of U.S. soybeans via a trade agreement expected to be officially announced Thursday after President Donald Trump meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
— Key gov’t shutdown flashpoints to watch
- Nutrition & food-aid programs: The shutdown threatens the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC), the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and USDA’s proposed trade-related aid package. Congress may provide an economic aid program later this year, most likely end a must-pass spending measure.
- Transportation/TSA: The Transportation Security Administration continues operations, but workforce strain and morale issues are mounting, especially as controllers and other pay-sensitive roles go unpaid. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy acknowledged Thursday that flight delays and cancellations are increasingly likely, saying on Capitol Hill, “It’s going to depend on our air traffic controllers coming in to work every single day.” Controllers said that the workforce is “stressed out and fatigued” and nearing “a breaking point,” with many working 10-hour shifts, six days per week, and taking second jobs on their limited days off to stay afloat. They will receive their first “zero paychecks” on Oct. 28 after a partial check earlier this month. Before the shutdown, controller shortages accounted for about 5% of flight delays, but that number has surged to 53%, Duffy said on Fox News.
- Congressional spending power: Lawmakers are waking to the risk that the shutdown itself is shifting power toward the executive, weakening the purse-strings role of Congress.
— Washington outlook for the week
- Expect renewed attempts in the Senate to pass continuing resolutions — both clean and policy-laden. But with the largely locked in on the GOP approach, a breakthrough remains distant.
- Traders and interest-rate watchers will keep a close eye on labor-market releases and budget-funding indicators given the implications for the Fed’s upcoming meeting (see related item below).
- If the shutdown drags on, the risk of rolling layoffs, furlough fatigue, and legal-constitutional conflict (around impoundment and workforce cuts) rises.
— Trade & tariffs: Senate set to spark votes (even without House support). Although the House will not join, the Senate intends to force votes on Trump tariff issues (Canada, Brazil, etc.) this week — putting GOP lawmakers in a delicate position.
- In September, Schumer warned that Democrats “will force votes” in the coming weeks seeking to rein in President Trump’s import tariffs.
- Earlier this year, the Senate narrowly (51-48) passed a resolution aimed at terminating the national-emergency base for the president’s tariffs — though the House declined to act and that will continue.
- With the U.S. Trade Representative pursuing broad reciprocal tariffs and trade shifts (see Asia trip details below and in this link), the Senate’s test vote could become a proxy for broader discontent — especially among agricultural and manufacturing senators worried about input-cost blow-back.
— Why the trade tariff votes matter:
- If the Senate forces a vote and the resolution is approved (as it did in May), it underscores continued Congress–executive tension over trade authority.
- The move could embolden House GOP opposition to any free-trade concessions or tariff roll-backs — ratcheting up intra-party Republican tension. But most sources say that is unlikely.
- Markets and sectors exposed to tariffs (e.g., agriculture, auto, steel) will watch closely for signals of legislative alignment — or fracture.
— Watch-list for trade policy this week:
- Timing and text of the Senate “tariff reversal” resolution or motion.
- Floor speeches by key ag-sensitive senators (e.g., from Iowa, Illinois, Michigan).
- Reactions from the White House and USTR on any sign of tariff dilution or delay.
— Agriculture & antitrust: Senate Judiciary tests seed-fertilizer sector
On Tuesday, the Senate Committee on the Judiciary holds a hearing titled “Pressure Cooker: Competition Issues in the Seed & Fertilizer Industries.”
— Why the antitrust hearing is high leverage
- Escalating input costs for U.S. farmers — fertilizer, seeds, chemicals — have prompted antitrust and “market-power” questions. Link to special report on the fertilizer industry.
- The hearing will probe consolidation in the seed and fertilizer sector, implications for pricing and supply chain resilience, and the fit with broader farm policy under the United States Department of Agriculture.
- The timing is acute: With the shutdown affecting USDA administrative capacity and key budget lines, lawmakers will revisit whether regulatory oversight has been sufficient.
— Key players & lines of inquiry at input hearing
- Chair and ranking members of the Judiciary Committee will question CEOs and farm-input executives on price-setting, vertical integration, and global-market exposure.
- Senators from major farm states will press for clearer disclosure of how consolidation has affected costs and how USDA/DOJ antitrust enforcement is working.
- The farm lobby will press for policy responses ranging from targeted investigation to more aggressive enforcement or even disclosure-mandates.
— Policy ripple effects to monitor after input hearing
- Depending on the hearing dynamic, we may see legislative‐drafting signals for “choice of seed” protections, fertilizer-market transparency bills, or even floor amendments in the farm bill pipeline.
- The sector tie-in to tariffs is real: Input-cost exposure could influence how senators vote on the tariff resolution noted above.
- Any findings of market-abuse may shape bipartisan dialogue on the next farm bill, USDA staffing/organizational reform, and how nutrition-aid programs (e.g., SNAP) are funded amid the shutdown.
— Monetary policy: This week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The Fed meets Oct. 28-29. With a partial data vacuum induced by the shutdown, markets and policymakers face an elevated risk environment.
— FOMC background
• The shutdown has delayed or postponed release of key employment and inflation data, clouding the Fed’s view of the economy.
- Reuters polling suggests the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this week, and again in December, absent new inflation shocks from tariffs.
- Inflation has somewhat abated (e.g., CPI 12-mo rose 3.0 % in September), giving the Fed room — but rising input/cost inflation tied to tariffs remains a wildcard.
— FOMC risks to watch
- A data-vacuum risk: With shutdown-induced gaps, the Fed may lean on “average” indicators, raising uncertainty in communications.
- A tariff-inflation risk: The president’s Asia trip (see next section) and potential tariff flare-ups could push inflation higher, forcing a more hawkish tone.
- A growth risk: The shutdown’s impact on consumer spending, federal workers, and agencies may dampen growth, raising stagflation concerns.
— What to expect following FOMC confab
- A 25 bp cut to the target range, with forward guidance signaling conditionality around the shutdown resolution and trade risks.
- A statement referencing the “unusual level of uncertainty” stemming from the funding impasse and global trade tensions.
- Markets will focus heavily on the press-conference remarks by Chair Jerome Powell for signals on timing of the next cut and how the Fed views tariff-led inflation.
- Treasury yields, the dollar, and risk-assets could react sharply to any deviation from expectations.
— Asia blitz: President Trump is in Asia amid domestic turmoil. President Trump is on a five-day trip to Asia covering Malaysia (for Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit), Japan, and South Korea — his first extended overseas trip of the term.
— Trump agenda and aims
- One of the trip’s focal points is a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which would mark a high-risk, high-reward moment in trade diplomacy. Link for details.
- The U.S. signed trade and critical minerals deals with Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, part of a broader pivot to diversify supply chains away from China.
- While abroad, Trump must manage a persistent shutdown back home — adding tension between global-diplomatic optics and domestic governance failure.
— Trump trip implications for Washington
- The trip strengthens the president’s global negotiating posture — vital ahead of major trade dynamics in Washington and the upcoming tariff vote.
- It also underscores the contrast between a global style of diplomacy and congressional gridlock at home — voters and markets alike may notice.
- On trade policy, any deal or pause with China or ASEAN nations could influence the Senate tariff debate and Fed inflation outlook (see items above).
- The agriculture and minerals deals tie directly to U.S. farm-state interests: the seed/fertilizer hearing and tariff votes may intertwine with how supply-chain resilience is perceived.
— Bottom line perspectives in Washington this week
• The longer the gov’t shutdown lasts, the more it erodes faith in congressional governance and elevates the president’s unilateral posture—shifting the institutional balance.
• Committee hearings (seed/fertilizer) and tariff votes will test bipartisan cooperation beyond the shutdown politics — agriculture, trade, and antitrust converge.
• The Fed’s move this week will send crucial signals to markets about how the interplay of domestic dysfunction (shutdown) and global risks (tariffs, Asia diplomacy) is being weighted in policy corridors.
• Trump’s Asia trip could either reinforce the president’s leverage at home (if deals emerge) or magnify the domestic stalemate (if shutdown drags on) and thus affect coalition politics in Congress.
| OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
— Key ag-related hearings and events on tap this week include:
— Trump and Trade-Related Events
- Mon., Oct. 27: President Donald Trump’s Asia Trip
- Event: President Donald Trump travels to Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea through Thursday.
- Relevance: Central to ongoing U.S.–China and Asia trade diplomacy ahead of the planned Trump/Xi meeting.
• Tue., Oct. 28: USMCA
- Event: Brookings Institution will host “Renegotiating the USMCA: Next steps and key issues.”
- Relevance: With U.S./Canada trade relations volatile, an outlook of USMCA is important.
- Thurs., Oct. 30: Trump/Xi Meeting at APEC Summit
- Event: President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea.
- Relevance: Major U.S./China trade negotiation milestone, expected to shape tariff policy, farm exports, and critical-mineral trade.
- Wed., Oct. 29: “Congress’ Role in the Trade War”
- Host: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).
- Relevance: Focuses on congressional influence over Trump’s trade policies, tariffs, and agricultural market exposure.
- Wed., Oct. 29: USTR Nomination Hearing (Senate Finance)
- Nominees:
- Julie Callahan — Chief Agricultural Negotiator, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).
- Jeffrey Goettman — Deputy USTR for Africa, Western Hemisphere, Europe, Middle East, Environment, Labor, Industrial Competitiveness.
- Relevance: Core to agricultural export and trade negotiations, particularly in Asia and Latin America.
- Nominees:
—Agriculture and Fertilizer Hearings
- Tue., Oct. 28: Senate Judiciary Committee Hearing
“Pressure Cooker: Competition Issues in the Seed & Fertilizer Industries”- Relevance: High-impact agriculture competition hearing, covering seed, fertilizer pricing, consolidation, and antitrust pressures — key for farm-input costs.
- Tue., Oct. 28: Farm Foundation Discussion
“Risk and Resilience: The Next Chapter for Crop Insurance”- Relevance: Addresses crop-insurance reform and farm-risk management, critical during trade disruptions and extreme-weather exposure.
- Wed., Oct. 29: USDA Nomination Hearing (Senate Ag Committee)
- Nominees:
- Mindy Brashears — Undersecretary for Food Safety.
- Stella Yvette Herrell — Assistant Secretary, USDA.
- John Walk — USDA Inspector General.
- Relevance: Key USDA leadership confirmations amid shutdown and trade-relief program oversight.
- Nominees:
—Broader Economic & Supply-Chain Context and Other Nominations
- Wed., Oct. 29: Senate Ag Committee hearing on the nominations of Mindy Brashears to be USDA undersecretary for food safety, Stella Yvette Herrel to be an assistant agriculture secretary, and John Walk to be USDA inspector general.
- Wed., Oct. 29: Senate Environment and Public Works Committee meeting to consider the nominations of Jeffrey Hall to be assistant EPA administrator for enforcement and compliance assurance, and Douglas Troutman to be assistant EPA administrator for chemical safety and pollution prevention, overseeing the Office of Pesticide Programs.
- Thurs., Oct. 30: Surface Transportation Board Meeting
Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee- Relevance: Discusses rail logistics for energy and agricultural inputs (fertilizer, fuel), linking to farm-supply-chain efficiency.
- Thurs., Oct. 30 : Economic Club of Washington, D.C. Discussion
“Global Economy, Trade and Technology”- Relevance: High-level forum likely referencing the Trump/Xi trade developments and global agricultural trade flows.
- Thurs., Oct. 30: Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on the nomination of Casey Means to be surgeon general.
| — ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
— A packed week for data and policy ahead of the Trump/Xi summit on Thursday.
The final week of October brings a full slate of economic reports, capped by the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. The data and events will shape market expectations for growth, inflation, and trade policy heading into November.
Monday, Oct. 27: Manufacturing and Trade Focus
• Durable Goods Orders: A critical gauge of business investment. Economists will watch for signs of a rebound following September’s softness in core capital goods.
• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey: Offers a real-time look at regional factory activity in Texas, which has been sensitive to energy prices and export trends.
• ASEAN and APEC Summits: These overlapping Asia summits set the stage for President Trump’s regional trade diplomacy ahead of his meeting with Xi.
Tuesday, Oct. 28 : Housing and Consumer Pulse
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller & FHFA Home Price Indexes: Both measure housing prices; together they show how higher mortgage rates and slower construction are shaping the housing market.
• Consumer Confidence: A key forward-looking indicator of household spending, crucial given the recent soft retail sales data.
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: Monitors Mid-Atlantic factory sentiment; a regional read on industrial resilience.
Wednesday, Oct. 29: Fed Decision Day
• International Trade in Goods & Wholesale Inventories: Provide insight into net export performance and potential revisions to Q3 GDP.
• Pending Home Sales Index: Tracks contract signings for home purchases and signals future existing home sales.
• FOMC Meeting Conclusion & Press Conference: The centerpiece of the week. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady but emphasize data dependency amid tariff and shutdown uncertainty.
Thursday, Oct. 30: Growth and Labor Data
• Jobless Claims: A timely barometer of labor market strength amid mixed corporate layoff signals.
• GDP (Advance Estimate): The first reading for Q3 growth. Analysts will parse the components for the effects of trade disruptions and weaker investment.
• Trump/Xi Meeting in South Korea: A potential turning point for global trade. Markets will watch closely for progress on tariffs and agricultural purchases.
Friday, Oct. 31: Inflation and Business Outlook
• Personal Income & Outlays: Includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, providing a fresh reading on consumer inflation.
• Employment Cost Index: A key measure of wage pressures that influence inflation expectations.
• Chicago PMI: Captures Midwest business conditions and serves as a preview of next week’s national ISM Manufacturing Index.
— Key economic reports for week of Oct. 27:
ASEAN summit, Kuala Lumpur; runs through Tuesday
APEC Summit, Gyeongju, South Korea; runs through Saturday
Tue., Oct. 28
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI
Wed., Oct. 29
International Trade in Goods
Thurs., Oct. 30
President Donald Trump to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, South Korea
Fri., Oct. 31
| — KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Ag focus: The European Commission’s crop conditions report released on Monday. One of the week’s interests will be on Wilmar International’s quarterly results and a global rice conference in New Delhi. But the market focus is on Thursday’s Trump/Xi summit and the signal of “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans and perhaps other commodities.
Mon., Oct. 27
• JRC MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
• USDA export inspections — corn, soybeans, wheat
• Holiday: New Zealand
Tue., Oct. 28
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Earnings: WH Group, Smithfield Foods
Wed., Oct. 29
• Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
• Earnings: Pilgrim’s Pride
• Holiday: Hong Kong
Thurs., Oct. 30
• Bharat International Rice Conference, New Delhi, day 1
• Earnings: Wilmar
Fri., Oct. 31
• Malaysia’s monthly palm oil exports
• Bharat International Rice Conference, New Delhi, day 2
• FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions report
• Earnings: AGCO
| — KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Energy focus: Major energy companies including Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and Exxon Mobil will report 3Q results. Conferences will include Singapore International Energy Week, the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, and the FT Energy Transition Summit in London.
Mon., Oct. 27
• Singapore International Energy Week; runs through Friday
• Future Investment Initiative 2025, Riyadh; runs through Thursday
• Earnings: GALP
• Holiday: Kazakhstan
Tue., Oct. 28
• Germany’s Economic Affairs/Energy Ministry hosts Foreign Trade Day, Berlin
• API US inventory report
• Brent options for December expire
• Earnings: ONEOK, Expand Energy, NextEra
• Holiday: Greece
Wed. Oct. 29
• All Energy Australia 2025 Conference & Exhibition, Melbourne; runs through Thursday
• FT Energy Transition Summit, London; runs through Thursday
• IEA Energy Innovation Forum
• Earnings: Sinopec, OMV, Equinor, Neste, Phillips 66
• Holiday: Hong Kong, Turkey
Thurs., Oct. 30
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• Nort Sea programs (December)
• G7 energy and environment ministers’ meeting, Toronto; runs through Friday
• Earnings: PetroChina, Cnooc, TotalEnergies, Repsol, Shell, Technip Energies, Cheniere, Xcel
Fri., Oct. 31
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• Brent December futures expire
• Earnings: Imperial Oil, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Cenovus
