Hassett: Prolonged Gov’t Closure Could Cut GDP by More Than Half, Push Key Sectors Toward Recession
China restores soybean export access for three U.S. firms | China’s timing of U.S. commodity purchases remains tied to price spreads
Link: Judge Orders Full November SNAP Payments
Link: U.S. Expands Critical Minerals List — Fertilizer Inputs Move to the Forefront
Link: Trump Admin. Readies for Possible Tariff Refunds as Supreme Court
Weighs IEEPA Case
Link: China’s Xiamen C&D Strikes $5.2 Billion in Global Agricultural Supply Deals
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 31, updated later today
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 31, updated later today
Today’s Updates:
TOP NEWS
— Hassett warns shutdown is dragging on U.S. growth
— USTR opens short comment window on pausing China port fees
— China restores soybean export access for three U.S. firms
— China’s timing of U.S. commodity purchases remains tied to price spreads,
not policy pledges
— China continues to snap up cheaper Brazilian soybeans as U.S. purchases stall
— WSJ: Soybean farmers remain in the crossfire of U.S./China trade diplomacy
— China officially suspends some rare earth export curbs for one year
— U.S. finalizes 2025 critical minerals list, elevating fertilizer inputs to national security
— China’s export slide raises pressure on Beijing to boost domestic growth
— Judge orders USDA to deliver full SNAP benefits; administration plans appeal
— Thune pushes new shutdown vote with revised funding plan
— Lincicome: Trump’s China truce exposes weakness of U.S. trade strategy
— FAA orders nationwide flight cuts amid government shutdown
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: U.S. stock futures signal lower values
— Equities yesterday
— Fed speak
AG MARKETS
— Global crop outlook steady as markets remain well supplied
— Agriculture markets yesterday
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices edge higher Friday but set for second weekly loss
— Oil prices slipped Thursday as supply glut and weak U.S. demand weigh on market
— EV slowdown deepens as Honda and Ford pull back
TRADE POLICY
— USTR delays and expands USMCA review hearing
— Senators push interagency task force to police “unfair” specialty crop imports
CONGRESS
— CBO cyber breach raises alarms over congressional data security
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Stefanik launches 2026 gubernatorial campaign
— Cook Political Report: A blue wave is building
FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY
— World food prices decline for second straight month, FAO reports
WEATHER
— NWS: unsettled North; storms TN/OH Valleys; frigid air for Plains/Mississippi Valley
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 7, 2025
Up Front— Hassett: Shutdown now slicing GDP, pushing travel/leisure toward recession; damage grows the longer it lasts. — USTR: 24-hour comment window to pause China port fees/crane & chassis tariffs for one year under Trump–Xi accord. — China: Restores soybean export access for CHS, Louis Dreyfus, and EGT; U.S. log ban also lifted. — NDSU: China’s U.S. commodity buys will track price spreads, not pledges; watch U.S./Brazil soybean differential. — Soy trade: China reportedly books 20+ Brazilian cargoes for Dec–Jan as offers run ~45¢/bu under U.S. Gulf. — WSJ: U.S. farmers still in crossfire —Brazil’s rise, Argentina deals, and thin margins keep pressure on growers. — Rare earths: Beijing suspends some export curbs for one year amid broader U.S./China détente. — Critical minerals: U.S. adds phosphate & potash to 2025 list, elevating fertilizer inputs to national-security status. — China exports: October shipments fall 1.1% y/y; pressure builds for domestic stimulus. — SNAP ruling: Judge orders full November benefits; USDA plans appeal citing funding constraints. — Hill outlook: Thune tries new CR with minibus and January extension; odds of a quick deal remain dim. — Analysis: Lincicome says Trump/Xi truce trades near-term calm for weaker long-term U.S. leverage. — FAA: Nationwide flight reductions begin; 40 airports hit as shutdown strains air-traffic staffing. — Equity markets: Tech-led selloff puts stocks on pace for worst week in 7 months; major U.S./EU indices lower. — Fed speak: Hammack prioritizes inflation fight; Musalem sees policy near neutral; Goolsbee uneasy on cuts sans data. — Crops: AMIS says global grain/oilseed supplies ample; soy the outlier on price firmness. — Ag closes: Corn, soy, wheat, cattle mostly lower; spring wheat ekes a gain. — Oil: Brent/WTI tick up but set for second weekly loss on surplus worries and soft U.S. demand. — EVs: Honda slashes outlook; WSJ says Ford may scrap F-150 Lightning as incentives fade and sales slip. — USMCA: USTR delays, expands public hearing to Dec. 3–5 after 1,500+ comments. — Specialty crops: Collins/Slotkin bill would create interagency team to police “unfair” imports. — Cyber: Suspected foreign hack at CBO raises concerns over congressional data security. — NY Governor race: Stefanik launches 2026 bid against Hochul, banking on crime/tax message and fundraising. — Cook Political Report: Off-year results point to a 2018-style blue wave building into 2026. — FAO: World food prices fall for a second month; sugar, dairy lead declines; record cereal output projected. — Weather: Stormy Ohio/Tennessee Valleys; frigid air to spill into Plains and Mississippi Valley this weekend. —Hassett warns shutdown is dragging on U.S. growthWhite House economic adviser says prolonged closure could cut GDP by more than half, push key sectors toward recession Gov’t shutdown taking heavy toll on U.S. economy. In an interview with anchor Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business’s Mornings with Maria, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett warned that the ongoing government shutdown — now in its 38th day — is taking a far heavier toll on the U.S. economy than originally projected, with air travel and business activity among the hardest hit. “The impact on the economy is far worse than we expected because it’s gone on for so long,” Hassett said, estimating that the shutdown could shave “over a percent or a percent and a half off GDP.” He added that the administration had anticipated 3% growth in the fourth quarter, “but now we’re expecting something like half that because of the harm.” Hassett said the shutdown’s effects are spreading through multiple sectors, including airlines, construction, and government services. With the Federal Aviation Administration ordering a 10% reduction in flights at 40 major airports, he said the situation has reached a “choke point” for both holiday and business travel, which he described as vital to overall economic activity. “If 10% of business travel isn’t happening, then those are deals that aren’t being cut and hotel rooms that aren’t being filled,” he said, adding that the multiplier effects were “really, really large.” He warned that the travel and leisure industry is now showing signs of recession, noting that “if the air travel thing goes south for another week or two, then yeah, you could say that they would have at least a near-term recession.” The shutdown’s broader economic toll, Hassett said, extends beyond airlines. “Basically, you can’t get a permit,” he explained. “Construction projects are starting to slow down.” He added that 750,000 federal employees going without pay are weighing on household spending and government efficiency. “If you’re deciding whether to take a government job or a private-sector job, who’s going to want to work for months without getting paid?” he asked. Despite the deepening disruptions, Hassett expressed optimism about the longer-term outlook if the government reopens soon. He pointed to a “capital spending boom” and rising productivity as key drivers for recovery, projecting potential 4% growth next year once the shutdown ends. Hassett accused Democrats of deliberately prolonging the shutdown to inflict economic harm and weaken President Trump politically. He suggested that Democratic leaders were intentionally allowing damage to accumulate — both to the economy and to public confidence — in hopes of forcing Republicans to concede or to trigger a debate over ending the Senate filibuster. “They need to stop. They’re harming Americans,” Hassett said. “They’re making it so that people are worried about their holiday flights… [and] the folks that are government workers, 750,000 of them, aren’t getting their paychecks and are starting to wonder whether they should find another job.” Hassett said that inside the White House, there were two working theories about Democrats’ motives: “One was they’re going to wait until after the election, and the other is they’re going to wait until Republicans are forced to go after the filibuster. And if they don’t move soon, then I think we have to conclude that their play is to just cause so much harm to Americans for so long that eventually the Republicans really have to put the filibuster on the table,” he told Bartiromo. He called the approach “reckless” and said Democrats were “not doing their duty” as a moderating force in the Senate. “They’re the exact opposite,” he said. “It’s got to stop.” Hassett’s comments underscored the administration’s view that the economic pain from the shutdown — including lost travel, halted construction, and unpaid workers — was being used as political leverage by Democrats to stall or damage President Trump’s economic agenda. “The bottom line is that the economy will recover and we’ll be doing fine if we can just get the government opened,” Hassett said, warning that the longer the stalemate continues, the more lasting the damage will be.—USTR opens short comment window on pausing China port feesProposed one-year suspension reflects commitments in Trump/Xi trade accord The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on Thursday launched a short comment period on its proposal to pause for one year the Section 301 port fees on Chinese-built or Chinese-owned vessels, as well as tariffs on ship-to-shore cranes and chassis imported from China. The window opened at noon Eastern on Nov. 6 and closes at 5 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 7. USTR said the pause would take effect Nov. 10, 2025, through Nov. 9, 2026, in alignment with the trade agreement reached between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. In its notice (link), USTR said that “given the trade deal,” it is “proposing to suspend for one year, beginning on Nov. 10, 2025, the responsive actions taken in this investigation.” The suspension means that no party would accrue liability for or be required to pay the port service fees or the tariffs on affected maritime equipment during that period. —China restores soybean export access for three U.S. firmsCHS, Louis Dreyfus, and EGT regain approval after March suspension China’s customs administration announced it will reinstate the export qualifications of three companies — CHS, Louis Dreyfus Grains Merchandising, and export grain terminal operator EGT — allowing them to resume soybean shipments to China effective Nov. 10. The firms had been suspended from exporting to China since March. The agency also removed the import suspension of U.S. logs, something the White House announced was part of the agreement reached between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. —China’s timing of U.S. commodity purchases remains tied to price spreads, not policy pledgesNorth Dakota State University report finds Beijing’s soybean commitments could hinge on market competitiveness rather than political targets China’s recent pledge to buy 12 million metric tons (MM) of U.S. soybeans by January 2026 and a minimum of 25 million metric tons MMT of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028 may appear to lock in a dependable demand floor — but according to the November 2025 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor, the timing and volume of Chinese purchases are still likely to depend on relative price competitiveness between U.S. and Brazilian supplies (link). The report notes that Chinese importers have “rarely deviated from price-driven purchasing behavior,” even during past diplomatic breakthroughs. Historical data show that Beijing ramps up purchases when U.S. soybeans are priced at a discount to Brazilian alternatives and retreats when premiums widen, regardless of trade agreements or political commitments. Quote of note: “China consistently purchases U.S. soybeans when prices are competitive,” the authors wrote, citing correlations between U.S./Brazil landed price differentials and weekly U.S. export sales. “During both tariff periods, U.S. sales effectively ceased when tariffs pushed U.S. soybeans to premiums over Brazilian supplies.” Although the 25 MMT target provides a “defined floor” for U.S. export expectations, NDSU analysts warned that without enforcement mechanisms — or in the presence of “market conditions” clauses like those in the 2020 Phase One deal — Beijing could justify falling short if U.S. prices remain uncompetitive. Soybean futures recently rallied above $11 per bushel since the deal’s announcement, with basis levels improving from September lows, but analysts noted that sustained Chinese buying will depend on how the U.S./Brazil spread evolves in early 2026. Brazil now supplies roughly 80% of China’s soybean imports, a dominance unlikely to shift unless U.S. freight and price terms improve. The report concludes that “monitoring the U.S./Brazil price differential in the coming months will provide early signals of whether Chinese purchases are driven by commitment or by market economics,” underscoring the continuing reality that, even under the new trade framework, timing — not just targets — will dictate China’s commodity buying behavior. —China continues to snap up cheaper Brazilian soybeans as U.S. purchases stall20+ cargoes booked for December–January as Beijing leverages price edge and tariff gap China has been actively securing Brazilian soybeans for December and January delivery, purchasing over 20 cargoes totaling over 1 million metric tons, reports note. Brazilian soybean offers are currently around 45 cents per bushel cheaper than U.S. Gulf prices, giving South American sellers a clear competitive edge. The aggressive buying comes not only from China but also from non-Chinese destinations taking advantage of favorable pricing.  —WSJ: Soybean farmers remain in the crossfire of U.S./China trade diplomacyDespite Beijing’s new purchase pledges, U.S. growers face squeezed margins, rising costs, and the reality of a global market increasingly dominated by Brazil After years of being “whipsawed by global politics,” Illinois farmer Dean Buchholz thought he had seen it all. But his soybean crop was hit when China moved billions of dollars’ worth of soybeans from Argentina, a move triggered days after the U.S. committed to a $20 billion loan to Argentina. The result: U.S. soybean prices fell, and Argentina’s peso briefly gained. The Wall Street Journal reports that for many heartland farmers, being dependent on Chinese demand has become a strategic vulnerability. Farm country frustrations. Many U.S. farmers remain skeptical of the new deal with China. “I think everybody uses us as pawns,” Illinois farmer David Isermann told the Journal. Despite the deal, cash bids are still unprofitable in some regions — North Dakota farmers report soybeans under $10 per bushel. Marvin Yoder of Jacksonville, Illinois, observed: “Brazil keeps expanding every year, they’ve got cheap land and labor, they’ve got some sharp farmers down there too.”  Illinois farmer Mike Dahman estimates losses of about $100 per acre this year: “If you’re raising beans, you’re probably going to lose money.” China’s long game. China’s status as the world’s largest soybean importer turned the crop into America’s second most planted field commodity. But that dominance is shifting. Brazil already accounts for roughly 70 % of China’s soy imports — double the share from 15 years ago. Trade-group realignment and infrastructure investments by Beijing in South America helped trigger that shift. One U.S. agribusiness executive told the WSJ: “We see South America as an investment, for sure.” The Argentina shock and U.S. anger. In September, Argentina suspended its 26% export tax on agriculture exports until sales hit $7 billion. Days later China snapped up many of those exports, selling dozens of soybean cargoes. American farmers felt betrayed: Buchholz said: “We paid all our taxpayer money to help out a foreign country… and then they basically cut our throats.” Rollins’ warning: Treasury Secretary Bessent was sitting in the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly in September when he read a text message from a displeased colleague. “Soy prices are dropping further because of it,” wrote Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, adding, “This gives China more leverage on us.” Outlook: A fragile peace. Farm groups cautiously welcomed the trade deal with China: American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said it “provides some certainty for farmers who are struggling just to hold on.” But analysts warn that the deal is far from comprehensive. As farmer Greg Amundson put it: “Short-term this doesn’t do a lot… there are just too damn many beans in the world, that’s why prices are so low.” —China officially suspends some rare earth export curbs for one yearMove follows U.S./China trade agreement aimed at easing supply tensions China’s Ministry of Commerce announced it is suspending export controls on certain rare earth equipment and materials, as well as on superhard materials and lithium batteries, for one year — through Nov. 10, 2026. The decision, published in an official notice on Friday, is part of the broader trade agreement recently reached between Washington and Beijing that covered a range of industrial and technology-related trade issues. The suspension signals a temporary thaw in one of the most sensitive areas of U.S./China trade relations. Rare earth elements and advanced battery materials are critical for defense, electronics, and renewable energy production, and China’s prior restrictions had raised global supply chain concerns. Analysts note that the one-year pause gives both sides time to negotiate longer-term arrangements, while offering relief to manufacturers dependent on these strategic materials. Of note: Trump is seeking rare earth deals with central Asia leaders. Also, the U.S. is backing a Brazilian mine to help loosen China’s grip on rare earths — a $465 million loan will help Serra Verde expand output as global processing capacity increases. —U.S. finalizes 2025 critical minerals list, elevating fertilizer inputs to national security statusPhosphate and potash join the official U.S. Geological Survey list, underscoring their importance to food security and domestic supply resilience The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released its final 2025 list of critical minerals, formally adding phosphate and potash — two key fertilizer components — to the roster of materials deemed essential for the nation’s economic and national security. Link to special report released Thursday. According to the agency, the list is “not a permanent list but will be dynamic and updated not less than biannually to reflect current data on supply, demand, and concentration of production, as well as current policy priorities.” The final version follows a draft published on Aug. 25, which had proposed adding potash, silicon, copper, silver, rhenium, and lead, while recommending removal of arsenic and tellurium. The Department of the Interior said it received 163 public comments before finalizing the list. Interagency consultation led to several changes:•The Department of War emphasized the defense significance of arsenic and tellurium, securing their retention.• The Department of Energy pushed for metallurgical coal and uranium to be recognized for their roles in steel, energy, and defense production.•USDA advocated for phosphate, highlighting its “importance to food security.” The inclusion of phosphate and potash grants these materials faster federal permitting, expanded research funding, and potential tax incentives for domestic exploration and processing. The move effectively raises agricultural minerals to the same strategic tier as metals critical to defense and clean energy, integrating U.S. food security into the broader national security framework. —China’s export slide raises pressure on Beijing to boost domestic growthUnexpected downturn in October trade data underscores waning global demand and fading tariff frontloadingChina’s exports unexpectedly fell 1.1% in October from a year earlier — the first decline since March 2024 — marking a setback for the world’s second-largest economy after months of steady growth. Economists had expected a 2.3% increase. Shipments to the U.S. plunged 25% year-over-year, extending a seven-month losing streak, while exports to Southeast Asia and Europe also lost momentum. Analysts said the weakness likely reflects both softening global demand and the unwinding of earlier “frontloading” of shipments ahead of President Trump’s tariffs. Policy impact: Nomura analysts said the export slide and slowing retail sales are “increasing pressure on Beijing to step up policy support to stabilize growth” in the fourth quarter. The October downturn follows a 5.2% expansion in China’s economy through the first nine months of 2025, keeping it roughly on track to meet the government’s 5% growth target. Imports rose 1% from a year earlier, leaving a trade surplus of $90.07 billion, slightly below September’s $90.45 billion. Beijing may take comfort in the recent trade détente with Washington — under which the U.S. halved fentanyl-related tariffs to 10% and China pledged new purchases of U.S. soybeans and a pause on rare earth export controls — but economists at Capital Economics warned that any boost to exports “is likely to be limited.” —Judge orders USDA to deliver full SNAP benefits; administration plans appealRhode Island judge says partial payments violate court order as USDA cites funding constraints Chief Judge John McConnell of the U.S. District Court for the District of Rhode Island ruled Thursday that USDA violated his prior order by issuing only partial Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for November. McConnell ordered USDA to use Section 32 funds to provide full benefits, saying the administration’s actions had left “16 million children… immediately at risk of going hungry.” The ruling came after USDA said it would deplete its $4.65 billion contingency fund to provide 65% of November’s benefits, up from an earlier 50%. In a filing Wednesday, USDA warned that redirecting Section 32 funds could reduce resources for other child nutrition programs and argued that Congress must resolve the shortfall through appropriations. The administration maintains that it complied with the original order and that any delays stemmed from states’ payment systems rather than federal inaction. Late Thursday, the administration formally notified the court it will appeal McConnell’s ruling. —Thune pushes new shutdown vote with revised funding planSenate GOP leader aims to pair short-term spending bill with broader package and January extensionSenate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) plans to bring another vote today on the House-passed continuing resolution (CR) in a renewed effort to end the government shutdown. After 14 failed attempts to advance the measure, Thune intends to amend it to include a three-bill “minibus” spending package that has been under bipartisan negotiation, according to a Senate GOP aide. The revised bill would extend government funding through January, replacing the Nov. 21 deadline in the House version. Lawmakers are also discussing a potential vote on expiring Affordable Care Act/ObamaCare subsidies, though it remains unclear what form that commitment might take. Progress could be slow, with the package expected to take days to clear due to objections from both parties. “We’ll find out how serious the Democrats are or not,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.). After a lengthy caucus lunch, Senate Democrats said they were “unified” but declined to specify their strategy. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) said the party’s focus was on bringing down health care costs, while Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) called the meeting “the best we’ve had” and “very productive” in aligning their approach. Bottom Line: Prospects are fading on Capitol Hill for a deal this week to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history despite warnings of worsening flight disruptions and mounting concerns about food aid for low-income Americans. —Lincicome: Trump’s China truce exposes weakness of U.S. trade strategyScott Lincicome argues in The Dispatch that the new Trump/Xi agreement delivers short-term calm but long-term damage to U.S. leverage, revealing a decade of “rote protectionism” rather than real strategy In The Dispatch, Scott Lincicome writes that President Donald Trump’s latest trade deal with China “raises new and uncomfortable questions about the efficacy of these ‘anti-China’ tariff measures, if not their entire premise.” (Lincicome is vice president of general economics and trade at the CATO Institute and author of The Dispatch’s Capitolism newsletter). The agreement — cutting emergency tariffs from 20% to 10% and pausing export controls and port fees for one year — amounts, he says, to little more than “a one-year punt that we’ll do all over again next year.” Lincicome argues that U.S. concessions buy only fleeting relief while strengthening Beijing’s hand. “The best we can say about this deal,” he writes, “is that it provides sufficient relief for stock traders and certain U.S. importers … but it’ll do little to nothing to improve the uncertainty plaguing U.S. trade policy.” He notes that promised soybean purchases will still fall below pre-tariff levels and that “China will only make such purchases based on ‘market prices,’ … a potential ‘out’ for Beijing.” Citing AEI’s Derek Scissors, Lincicome warns history is repeating itself: “Xi will promise on rare earths, on fentanyl, on Russian oil. … Then China will bend its commitments beyond recognition and the U.S. will do nothing.” “According to a recent note (link) from the American Farm Bureau, for example, China’s Phase One agriculture purchases started out strong but slowed dramatically in the following years: Despite provisions allowing for consultation should the purchase commitments fall short, China gradually redirected portions of its feed, cotton and livestock imports toward alternative suppliers, and U.S. exports to China began to slow, dropping to $32 billion in 2023 and $27 billion in 2024. Year-to-date, through July 2025, U.S. exports to China stand at only $14 billion. “AEI’s Derek Scissors grumpily adds that Chinese noncompliance wasn’t limited to farm exports or even the Phase One deal, and we should expect similar things this time around: The Phase One trade agreement in 2020 failed quickly. Trump is rarely explicit about China joining the World Trade Organization, but in trade actions he ignores the Sino-American accession agreement, seeing as China has done so for many years already. And it’s not just the U.S. Beijing repeatedly violated a trade agreement with Australia over political criticism, for instance.” He adds that lower tariffs on China alongside higher levies on allies “shift U.S. trade policy away from China hawkishness and toward global isolationism writ large.”  The larger indictment, he concludes, is that “a decade of protectionist U.S. trade policy” has tilted global power toward Beijing: America’s erratic tariffs have driven other nations to trade more with one another and less with the U.S., while China deepens ties elsewhere. “In a world ruled by bullies,” Lincicome quotes The Economist, “the best defense against infection by one country is exposure to many.”—FAA orders nationwide flight cuts amid government shutdownAirlines cancel more than 800 flights as air traffic control strain worsens The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) unprecedented order to reduce commercial flights nationwide is set to take effect this morning, marking the first time in U.S. history that such cuts have been imposed due to a government shutdown. The order affects 40 major airports across more than two dozen states, including major hubs in Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, and Charlotte, with ripple effects expected across smaller airports. More than 810 flights were already canceled Thursday, according to FlightAware, as airlines scrambled to adjust schedules ahead of the order. Delta said it would cancel about 170 flights Friday, while American Airlines plans to cut 220 per day through Monday. Of note: The FAA said reductions will start at 4% and rise to 10% by Nov. 14, covering all commercial airlines between 6 a.m. and 10 p.m. The agency cited severe staffing strain among unpaid air traffic controllers, many of whom have been working six-day weeks with mandatory overtime during the record-long shutdown. “You can’t expect people to go in to work when they’re not getting a paycheck,” said Kelly Matthews, a frequent business traveler from Michigan, who has canceled upcoming trips. The Trump administration has pressed Congress to resolve the shutdown, as airlines warned of growing disruptions. Analysts said the cuts would “have a noticeable impact across the U.S. air transportation system,” with potential knock-on effects on cargo operations at FedEx’s Memphis hub and UPS’s Louisville facility. Experts warned of a bigger hit if the federal limits on flying remained around Thanksgiving. An end to the shutdown appears elusive, as Democrats seem unlikely to agree to the latest Republican overture. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Tech-heavy stock markets were heading for their biggest weekly fall in seven months as investors fretted over the sustainability of a rally in artificial intelligence stocks. Wall Street futures reversed course and edged down after markets closed lower yesterday amid a tech selloff. In Asia, Japan -1.2%. Hong Kong -0.9%. China -0.3%. India -0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.9%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -1.1%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. 6 | Point Difference from Nov. 5 | % Difference from Nov. 5 |
| Dow | 46,912.30 | -398.70 | -0.84% |
| Nasdaq | 23,053.99 | -445.80 | -1.90% |
| S&P 500 | 6,720.32 | -75.97 | -1.12% |
—Fed speak: Cleveland Federal Reserve chief Hammack said inflation is a bigger concern than the job market. St. Louis’s Musalem said policy is nearing neutral. And Chicago’s Goolsbee said the lack of data makes him uneasy about more rate cuts.
| AG MARKETS |
—Global crop outlook steady as markets remain well supplied
Despite localized weather challenges and shifting trade policies, global grain and oilseed markets are stable heading into 2026, according to the November 2025 AMIS Market Monitor
Global supplies of wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans remain ample as of November, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) reported. Although early-season drought in parts of China, the EU, and Ukraine has affected winter wheat sowing, and excessive rains delayed corn harvesting in China and the United States, favorable conditions elsewhere have kept production prospects solid. Prices eased for most major crops — with soybeans the lone exception — while fertilizer costs, though moderating, remain elevated. The report notes that global market outlooks are clouded by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed official data releases, and by evolving trade policy developments affecting key exporters and importers.
WHEAT
Global wheat production for 2025 has been revised upward to a new record, led by gains in Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. Utilization is slightly lower month-on-month due to reduced Russian feed use but remains above 2024/25 levels.
Trade: Largely unchanged; higher Russian and Ukrainian exports offset lower shipments from Brazil and the UK.
Stocks: Revised up following strong harvests in key exporting nations.
Crop conditions: Generally favorable, though sowing delays persist in China and southern Europe.
Policy: India raised its 2026/27 minimum support price to INR 2,585 per 100 kg (USD 292/tonne). Kazakhstan announced wheat export subsidies, and Russia lifted its ban on Kazakh imports.
Prices: Global wheat prices fell 0.9% in October and are down 9% year-on-year amid ample supplies
CORN
Global corn production (referred to as maize by AMIS) rose further since October, as higher estimates in South Africa and Ukraine outweighed declines in Russia. Utilization is projected higher year-on-year due to strong feed demand.
Trade: Steady from last month but slightly below last season.
Stocks: Revised upward on larger inventories in Ukraine and South Africa.
Crop conditions: Mixed; wet weather delayed U.S. and Chinese harvests, while Brazil’s planting expanded and Mexico faced flood damage.
Policy: Russia introduced duty-free export quotas for maize shipments from Far East regions through December 2025. Mexico set a guaranteed price of MXN 6,050 (USD 329) per tonne for white maize in three key producing states.
Prices: Corn export prices were marginally lower month-on-month but showed late-month strength on firm U.S. demand and rising soybean prices
RICE
Rice output was little changed month-to-month and remains near record highs, with minor upward revisions for Cambodia, Korea, and Sri Lanka offset by lower yields in Mali and Vietnam.
Utilization: Up slightly, reflecting stronger food demand in Africa.
Trade: Forecast higher for 2026 as Vietnam and Nigeria boost imports, though global trade will still ease 1.1% year-over-year.
Stocks: Expected to reach a new peak, driven by accumulations in China, Brazil, Bangladesh, and major exporters.
Crop conditions: Generally favorable despite storm-related damage in Vietnam and Thailand.
Policy: India lifted its export ban on de-oiled rice bran and relaxed inspection rules for European destinations. The Philippines extended its rice import ban through year-end and implemented a new floor price for unmilled rice.
Prices: Fell 3.5% in October to their lowest since 2017 amid weak import demand and new-crop arrivals
SOYBEANS
Global soybean production for 2025/26 was raised slightly as a larger Brazilian crop offset weaker prospects in India, supporting a record global total.
Utilization: Stable, with higher crushing demand in China and Ukraine balancing declines in Argentina and India.
Trade: Up 1% from 2024/25, contingent on the U.S.–China trade agreement.
Stocks: Increased month-on-month, reflecting restocking in Brazil and China.
Crop conditions: Harvests nearly complete in the U.S. and Canada with solid yields; planting underway in Brazil under favorable weather.
Policy: Ukraine finalized a 10% export-duty exemption for producers who cultivate soybeans and rapeseed themselves. U.S.–China talks produced a deal for China to purchase 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans this season and 25 million tonnes annually for 2026–2028.
Prices: Soybeans rose 0.5% in October, with U.S. Gulf prices up 11% on confirmed Chinese buying, while South American offers held steady
MARKET CONTEXT
Futures for corn and soybeans rallied on renewed trade optimism but remain capped by abundant supplies. Price volatility edged higher amid reduced transparency caused by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which halted official CFTC reporting. Fertilizer prices declined modestly but continue to pressure margins — particularly for phosphate products — while India increased nutrient subsidies and China restricted some fertilizer exports. Meanwhile, La Niña conditions are expected to persist into early 2026, heightening drought risks in southern South America and the U.S. South while bringing heavier rainfall to Southeast Asia and Australia.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov. 6 | Change from Nov. 5 |
| Corn | December | $4.28¾ | ▼6½¢ |
| Soybeans | January | $11.07½ | ▼26¾¢ |
| Soybean Meal | December | $312.70 | ▼$12.10 |
| Soybean Oil | December | 49.35¢ | ▼34 pts |
| SRW Wheat | December | $5.35½ | ▼19¼¢ |
| HRW Wheat | December | $5.22¼ | ▼17¾¢ |
| Spring Wheat | December | $5.57 | ▲¾¢ |
| Cotton | December | 64.54¢ | ▼69 pts |
| Live Cattle | December | $218.775 | ▼$1.75 |
| Feeder Cattle | January | $315.60 | ▼$4.375 |
| Lean Hogs | December | $78.975 | ▼$1.625 |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices edge higher Friday but set for second weekly loss
Supply glut fears and weak U.S. demand overshadow OPEC+ output restraint
Oil prices rose modestly on Friday, but both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained on track for their second straight weekly losses amid ongoing concerns about oversupply and sluggish U.S. demand.
Brent crude futures gained 55 cents, 0.9%, to $63.93 a barrel, while U.S. WTI rose 60 cents, 1%, to $60.03. Both benchmarks are poised to post weekly declines of more than 1.5% as global producers continue to lift output despite soft demand signals.
Analysts said the market is grappling with a widening oil surplus and mixed macroeconomic signals. The Energy Information Administration reported that higher imports and reduced refinery runs pushed crude stocks up more than expected, though gasoline and distillate inventories fell.
Additional downward pressure came from broader economic worries tied to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown — the longest in history — which has disrupted air travel and raised fears of weakening October labor data.
OPEC+ producers agreed to a modest output increase in December but paused further hikes through the first quarter of 2026 to avoid worsening a potential glut. Saudi Arabia meanwhile slashed its December crude prices for Asian buyers, signaling competition for market share in an already well-supplied environment.
Still, sanctions on Russia and Iran are limiting supplies to major importers like China and India, offering some counterbalance. China’s crude imports climbed 2.3% month-on-month and 8.2% year-on-year in October to 48.36 million tons, driven by robust refinery activity. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that strong Chinese buying “keeps those barrels away from the OECD, where inventories remain low.”
Separately, Swiss trader Gunvor withdrew its bid for Lukoil’s foreign assets after the U.S. Treasury labeled the Russian firm a “puppet,” prompting fresh warnings about Washington’s strict sanctions enforcement. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights said the move underscores the U.S. “maximum pressure campaign” against Russian energy companies.
—Oil prices slipped Thursday as supply glut and weak U.S. demand weigh on market
Brent and WTI notch third straight monthly decline as OPEC+ output rises and U.S. consumption softens
Oil prices fell Thursday amid renewed fears of a global oversupply and sluggish U.S. demand. Brent crude slid 14 cents to $63.38 a barrel, while WTI lost 17 cents to $59.43 — marking the third consecutive monthly drop for both benchmarks.
Analysts point to rising global production and lackluster consumption trends.
JPMorgan reported global oil demand rising only 850,000 barrels per day in early November — below its forecast — while EIA data showed a 5.2-million-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories.
Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut December prices for Asian buyers further underscored a well-supplied market, and Capital Economics maintained its Brent forecast at $60 by end-2025 and $50 by end-2026.
Some limited support came from U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, though analysts cautioned those disruptions are unlikely to offset the broader rise in global output.
—EV slowdown deepens as Honda and Ford pull back
Major automakers slash forecasts and reconsider electric pickup plans amid fading subsidies and weak sales
Honda slashed its full-year profit forecast by 21%, citing mounting electric vehicle (EV) costs and a slowdown in key markets. The company now projects operating profit of 550 billion yen ($3.6 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 2026, down from an earlier estimate of 700 billion yen. It also reduced its global EV sales ratio target for 2030 to 20%, down from 30%, reflecting the financial hit from its EV transition.
The company attributed the downturn to a mix of factors: weaker sales in China and Southeast Asia, supply-chain issues tied to Nexperia chip shortages, and the end of U.S. EV subsidies and tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration. Honda executives described the EV pullback as a recalibration rather than a retreat, but acknowledged that profitability pressures are mounting.
Adding to the industry’s woes, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ford is weighing whether to scrap the EV version of its flagship F-150 pickup, the Lightning, after October sales collapsed to just 1,500 units. While Ford has not confirmed the move, company insiders indicated that management is exploring a pivot toward lower-cost EVs, noting that the Lightning’s top trim levels reach $90,000, a price now considered untenable as consumer incentives vanish.
The developments underscore the shifting landscape for U.S. and global EV makers following the repeal of federal tax credits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. With demand cooling and subsidies evaporating, major automakers are reassessing production targets, delaying model launches, and bracing for a more difficult path to EV profitability.
| TRADE POLICY |
—USTR delays and expands USMCA review hearing
Public session rescheduled for Dec. 3–5 following surge in comment submissions
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has postponed and broadened its public hearing on the operation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), according to a notice published in the Federal Register. Originally set for Nov. 17, the hearing will now be held over three days, from Dec. 3 to 5.
USTR had first announced the hearing on Sept. 17 as part of its request for public input on the trade pact’s performance ahead of the joint USMCA review scheduled for July 1, 2026. More than 1,500 comment submissions were received by the Nov. 3 deadline, which also served as the cutoff date for those seeking to testify at the now-rescheduled hearing.
USTR also issued a request for input on a USMCA Labor Council meeting set for next month. Labor groups and their congressional allies have urged the administration to strengthen labor provisions in the upcoming 2026 review, arguing that Mexico has fallen short of its USMCA commitments to enhance labor rights and that the agreement’s facility-specific enforcement mechanism has not adequately safeguarded workers. The notice states that council “decisions and reports are made by consensus and will be publicly available unless the Council decides otherwise. The Labor Council will issue a joint summary report or statement on its work at the conclusion of each meeting.”
—Senators push interagency task force to police “unfair” specialty crop imports
Collins and Slotkin bill would establish a USDA-Commerce-USTR working group to flag trade actions, monitor data, and steer targeted relief for seasonal fruits and vegetables
Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) introduced the “Fairness for Fruits and Vegetables Act,” directing the administration to create an interagency working group — USDA, Commerce, and USTR — to monitor specialty crop trade data and recommend investigations and trade actions aimed at “unfair practices” affecting U.S. producers.
The group would coordinate with USDA’s Agricultural Trade Advisory Committee, growers, and industry to identify threats from import surges — especially seasonal and perishable fruits and vegetables — and propose programs or assistance the agriculture secretary could deploy to blunt market shocks.
Collins’ office says the measure would help Maine potatoes, wild blueberries, and apples by improving federal coordination and oversight; Slotkin argues specialty crops face unique, seasonal pressures that warrant tailored policy.
U.S. specialty crop growers have long warned that imports from Latin America (notably Mexico) undercut competitiveness. Collins also urged USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to steer disaster funds to Maine producers facing higher input and labor costs and extreme weather.
Specialty crop groups want inclusion in a trade-retaliation relief package the administration has paused during the shutdown but still plans to disburse once government reopens (roughly $13 billion under discussion). The Specialty Crop Farm Bill Alliance has pressed not to be overlooked, and Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) separately sought equitable relief for tobacco growers hurt by weaker China sales.
Bottom Line: The bill would formalize a trade watchdog and response hub for specialty crops — pairing faster data monitoring with clear pathways to trade actions and targeted USDA support — as growers push for a seat on any forthcoming farm aid package.
| CONGRESS |
—CBO cyber breach raises alarms over congressional data security
Foreign actor suspected in intrusion affecting lawmakers’ economic research hub
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the nonpartisan agency that provides lawmakers with fiscal analyses and economic forecasts, has reportedly been hacked by a suspected foreign actor, according to the Washington Post. Officials discovered the intrusion within the past several days, raising concerns that sensitive communications between congressional offices and the CBO — including internal emails and chat logs — may have been compromised. While the CBO believes it detected the breach early, some congressional staffers have already curtailed email correspondence with the agency due to cybersecurity fears.
The attack comes amid a government shutdown that has furloughed much of the CBO’s staff, complicating its ability to respond. The CBO plays a crucial role in scoring legislation for its fiscal impact and providing independent projections that balance those from the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers and Office of Management and Budget.
The agency has faced heightened political scrutiny this year, particularly after its analysis of President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill estimated it would add trillions to the national debt — prompting Senate Republicans to push rule changes on how such scores are applied.
A CBO representative has not yet commented on the reported cyber incident.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Stefanik launches 2026 gubernatorial campaign
New York Republican aims to unseat Gov. Kathy Hochul in what could be the state’s most competitive race in decades
U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) officially announced her campaign for New York governor today, entering a high-stakes showdown with Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, who is seeking a second full term. After months of statewide travel and behind-the-scenes organizing, Stefanik’s declaration formalizes a bid long anticipated by political observers. The congresswoman has worked to strengthen the GOP’s “ground game,” mirroring strategies used during George Pataki’s 1994 victory, the last time a Republican captured the governorship.
Despite Democrats’ two-to-one voter registration edge, Stefanik plans to rely on her fundraising muscle, combative campaign style, and outreach to independents, who now outnumber registered Republicans. Her Save New York PAC has already invested more than $500,000 into local races to build support across the state.
While the Siena Research Institute recently showed Hochul leading Stefanik by 25 points, Republican-aligned polling suggests a much closer contest — one GOP poll narrowing the gap to five points, and a Manhattan Institute survey showing an even race.
The New York Republican Party has signaled that Stefanik will face no primary, clearing her path to the nomination after Rep. Mike Lawler opted to seek reelection instead.
Stefanik’s campaign message centers on crime, taxes, and cost-of-living concerns, and she has aligned closely with President Donald Trump, who once tapped her for a U.N. ambassadorship before withdrawing the nomination.
She also gained national prominence in 2023 for her high-profile questioning of Ivy League university presidents over antisemitism, a moment that helped cement her image as one of the GOP’s most forceful figures heading into 2026.
—Cook Political Report: A blue wave is building: What we learned from election night 2025
Democrats’ sweeping victories in Virginia and New Jersey suggest a political environment that echoes 2018 more than 2024, according to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Democrats surge in key gubernatorial races. According to the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, the 2025 off-year elections marked a striking shift toward Democrats, with results resembling the anti-Trump wave of 2018 rather than last year’s tight 2024 presidential cycle. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the governorship by 15 points, while in New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill secured a 13-point victory — each outperforming Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 margins by nearly double digits.
Both candidates capitalized on widespread voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and his administration’s direction. Exit polls showed that over 60% of voters in both states were “angry or dissatisfied” with the state of the nation — and more than three-quarters of those backed the Democratic candidates. Republican nominees Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia and Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey largely mirrored Trump’s approval ratings in their respective states, underscoring the president’s drag on GOP candidates.
Spanberger’s record Virginia win. In Virginia, Spanberger’s focus on jobs and the economy amid a government shutdown resonated powerfully in the state’s populous Northern Virginia suburbs. Her 15-point victory marked the largest Democratic margin in a modern gubernatorial race there. Exit polls showed Trump’s approval rating at just 39% — nearly identical to Earle-Sears’ 42% vote share.
Spanberger achieved double-digit gains in Prince William, Loudoun, and Chesterfield Counties, reflecting a sharp “snap-back” among college-educated and Hispanic voters. She will become Virginia’s first female governor, and Democrats also flipped over a dozen seats in the House of Delegates, now holding 64.
Sherrill’s commanding win in New Jersey. In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill outperformed expectations with a 13-point victory. Her campaign centered on affordability and economic relief, including a pledge to freeze utility rates, while painting Ciattarelli as a Trump-aligned Republican who supported a “10% sales tax on everything.”
Trump’s endorsement of Ciattarelli — coupled with his “A” grade for the president’s second term — proved costly in a state where Trump’s approval rating was 13 points underwater, Cook Political Report analysts noted. Sherrill also reclaimed Hispanic voters, swinging Passaic County by 18 points and Hudson County by 22 points from the 2024 baseline. Her win cements Democrats’ third consecutive gubernatorial victory in the Garden State — a feat not seen in 60 years.
Redistricting momentum and the California map. Beyond the marquee races, Democrats notched major wins in redistricting. California’s Proposition 50, a ballot initiative redrawing congressional maps in Democrats’ favor, passed by 28 points, potentially flipping three to five U.S. House seats. The move offsets Republican gains in states like Texas and North Carolina, while Virginia’s proposed redistricting reforms could net Democrats another two or three seats.
The Cook Political Report notes that Republicans’ redistricting advantage has shrunk considerably. While the GOP might still gain up to seven seats from new maps, the broader political tide — combined with Democrats’ double-digit overperformance in special elections this year — leaves the Republican majority on precarious ground heading into 2026.
Outlook: Echoes of 2018. Taken together, Tuesday’s results underscore that the political environment of 2025 mirrors 2018 far more than 2024. Voter backlash against Trump’s leadership, renewed Democratic enthusiasm, and favorable redistricting gains suggest a “blue wave” is gathering strength ahead of the 2026 midterms.
As Amy Walter concludes, “A blue wave is building — the only question is whether Democrats can sustain it for another twelve months.”
| FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—World food prices decline for second straight month, FAO reports
Sugar and meat drive October drop as global supplies strengthen; record cereal output projected for 2025
World food prices fell for a second consecutive month in October, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), as ample global supplies eased pressure across key commodities.
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 126.4 points in October, down from a revised 128.5 in September, marking a slight year-over-year decline and standing 21.1% below its March 2022 peak.
Sugar led the downturn, with its sub-index falling 5.3% to the lowest level since December 2020, reflecting strong production in Brazil, higher output forecasts in Thailand and India, and weaker crude oil prices.
Dairy prices slid 3.4%, driven by lower milk powder and butter values amid strong export availability from the EU and New Zealand.
Meat prices also eased 2%, ending eight months of gains, as pork and poultry prices fell, though beef prices remained firm on continued global demand. In contrast, vegetable oils rose 0.9%, reaching their highest since July 2022.
In a separate update, the FAO projected record global cereal production of 2.99 billion metric tons for 2025, up 4.4% from 2024, with record highs expected for both corn and rice.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Unsettled weather across northern tier; rainy/stormy over parts of the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys tonight… …Frigid air spills out over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley this weekend.
