Hassett Warns Tariff Ruling Could Trigger Massive Refund Headache
U.S. boards third oil tanker near Venezuela | USDA ag trade outlook back in focus as analysts watch for missing context
Link: Weekend Updates, Dec. 20: Farmers Press USDA Leadership as
SDRP2 Interpretation Sparks Backlash
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 20
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Dec. 20
The Week Ahead: Dec. 21, 2025
UP FRONT— Hassett warns tariff ruling could spark refund chaos: The NEC director says even if Trump loses the IEEPA tariff case, the Supreme Court is unlikely to mandate widespread refunds due to logistical hurdles, while the administration prepares contingencies and floats tariff-funded $2,000 rebate checks. — U.S. boards third tanker near Venezuela: The U.S. intercepted another sanctioned oil tanker as Trump intensifies pressure on Nicolás Maduro, raising risks of Venezuelan export shutdowns, storage constraints, and domestic instability. — Loudest headlines aren’t always the lasting ones: A Bruce Mehlman–sourced reflection, echoing Louis Gave, argues history’s biggest news events often matter less long-term than quieter structural shifts like e-commerce, China’s WTO entry, and the smartphone revolution. — High steaks: beef prices squeeze steakhouses: New York Times reporting shows record beef prices from historically low cattle inventories are forcing menu hikes, with high-end steakhouses holding firm while midpriced chains struggle with customer pushback. WASHINGTON FOCUS — Congress adjourns: House and Senate are out for the year, returning the week of Jan. 5. — Holiday shutdown: Federal offices close Dec. 24–26 by presidential order; markets trade short hours Dec. 24, close Dec. 25, and reopen Dec. 26. — Data disruptions: Economic releases are compressed; jobless claims timing is uncertain, while EIA delays petroleum and natural gas reports until Dec. 29. — USDA trade outlook watched: Markets are focused on whether USDA restores commentary and analysis in its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade amid rising policy and global uncertainty. EVENTS — Mon., Dec. 22: Trump at Mar-a-Lago through Jan. 4; travel scam briefing by Sen. Maggie Hassan, Chris Sununu, and Airlines for America. — Thurs., Dec. 25: Christmas Day organ recital at Washington National Cathedral. ECONOMIC REPORTS — Holiday-shortened week: Markets digest delayed Q3 GDP and core PCE amid thin liquidity. — Mon., Dec. 22: Chicago Fed National Activity Index. — Tue., Dec. 23: GDP, durable goods, housing starts, industrial production; jobless claims formally scheduled but uncertain. — Wed.–Fri.: Christmas closures; existing home sales and consumer sentiment due Dec. 26. KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS — Ag focus: Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade expected Tuesday, with scrutiny on whether USDA adds back analysis. — Mon., Dec. 22: Export inspections, meat price spreads, milk production. — Tue., Dec. 23: Cold storage, hogs and pigs, poultry and slaughter data, peanut stocks and prices, export sales, CFTC data, EU grain and oilseed trade. — Fri., Dec. 26: Malaysia palm oil exports; Unica sugar data tentative. KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS — Holiday delays: EIA petroleum and natural gas storage reports pushed to Dec. 29. — Tue., Dec. 23: API inventories, Baker Hughes rig count; Brent February options expire. — Late Dec.–early Jan.: Brent February futures expire Dec. 30; OPEC+ video meeting Jan. 4 to review production plans.TOP STORIES— Hassett warns tariff ruling could trigger massive refund headacheWhite House economic adviser says Supreme Court unlikely to order widespread tariff refunds even if Trump loses IEEPA case A Supreme Court ruling striking down President Donald Trump’s tariffs — and requiring refunds of import duties already collected — would create a major administrative burden and is therefore unlikely, according to Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council. Speaking Sunday on Face the Nation, Hassett said the Trump administration expects to prevail in the Supreme Court challenge to tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. But even in the event of an adverse ruling, he argued the justices would be reluctant to mandate large-scale refunds because of the logistical complexity involved. Under such a scenario, refunds would first have to go to importers of record, who would then need to distribute the money down the supply chain to affected customers — a process Hassett suggested would be unwieldy and prone to error. The Supreme Court is currently weighing a legal challenge to Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on dozens of countries. Administration officials have privately prepared contingency plans to reimpose import taxes if the court rules against them, while publicly maintaining confidence in a favorable outcome. Hassett also tied the tariff debate to broader economic policy, saying improving growth and a narrowing federal deficit have strengthened the case for Trump’s long-discussed proposal to send one-time $2,000 rebate checks to Americans, funded by tariff revenue. Republicans in Congress have so far been cool to the idea. “In the summer, I wasn’t so sure that there was space for a check like that, but now I’m pretty sure that there is,” Hassett said, adding that he expects Trump to present a formal proposal to Congress early next year. Beyond rebates, Hassett said the administration is finalizing a package of housing affordability proposals, with announcements expected soon. Although 30-year fixed mortgage rates have eased to around 6.2%, they remain far above pandemic-era lows, keeping pressure on prospective homebuyers. Hassett made similar comments on Fox News Sunday, noting that senior officials plan to spend time after Christmas at Mar-a-Lago reviewing economic and housing initiatives for 2026. He is also viewed as a leading contender to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. — U.S. boards third oil tanker near Venezuela as Trump escalates oil blockadeLatest interdiction underscores growing pressure on Maduro, raising risks of export shutdowns and domestic unrest The United States has boarded a third oil tanker near Venezuela in less than two weeks, signaling a sharp escalation in President Donald Trump’s campaign to choke off the Maduro government’s oil revenues. According to reports citing people familiar with the matter, the Bella 1, a Panamanian-flagged vessel already sanctioned by the U.S., was intercepted while en route to Venezuela to load crude. The action follows the boarding of the Centuries supertanker earlier Saturday and the Skipper on Dec. 10. The White House declined immediate comment. U.S. officials say the vessels were carrying — or intended to carry — sanctioned oil from state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA). Trump has intensified pressure on Nicolás Maduro by seeking to halt Venezuela’s oil exports, the regime’s main source of hard currency. Industry analysts warn that if exports are blocked, storage tanks could quickly fill, forcing PDVSA to shut in production. Compounding the pressure, the U.S. has previously designated the Maduro government as a foreign terrorist organization, citing alleged drug-trafficking ties. Venezuelan Vice President and Oil Minister Delcy Rodríguez condemned the seizure of the Centuries as “piracy,” even as she said output had reached the government’s 1.2 million-barrel-per-day target. But advisers to the opposition warn the blockade is already straining storage capacity and could soon trigger production shut-ins, currency weakness, and social unrest. Analysts say repeated interdictions may deter shipping altogether, potentially leading to a near-total halt in crude exports and limiting access to imported diluent needed to move Venezuela’s heavy oil. U.S. officials have downplayed global price risks, arguing Venezuela’s volumes are small relative to world supply. — Loudest headlines aren’t always the lasting onesHistory’s most attention-grabbing moments often fade, while quieter shifts reshape the future Louis Gave has long argued that the biggest story in any given year is not necessarily the one with the greatest long-term consequences. Consider 1994: the dominant political headline was the Republican Revolution, when the GOP captured the House of Representatives for the first time in four decades. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight, which matters more today — that electoral shock, or the birth of e-commerce following the launch of the first web browser? The same pattern repeats. The Sept. 11 attacks rightly defined the news of 2001, but two decades on, has their legacy shaped the global order more profoundly than China’s extraordinary rise after joining the World Trade Organization that same year? In 2007, the mortgage foreclosure crisis consumed headlines, even as the introduction of the iPhone quietly began transforming how people live, work, and communicate. In 2020, attention was understandably consumed by the Covid-19 pandemic. The lingering question, as Gave frames it, is not what we focused on — but what structural shifts may have been unfolding beneath the noise, largely unnoticed, yet destined to leave a far longer imprint. Note: Louis Gave is a French-born economist, market strategist, and investor, best known as a co-founder and partner of Gavekal Research, a global macroeconomic and investment research firm.  Source: Bruce Mehlman — High steaks: record beef prices squeeze steakhouses as holiday demand peaksLow cattle inventories and rising costs push menu prices higher, forcing restaurants to balance margins against customer pushback In a holiday season that is typically a bonanza for steakhouses, soaring beef prices are forcing restaurants across the country to make difficult pricing decisions, according to a report by Julie Creswell of the New York Times. Americans remain voracious beef eaters — consuming nearly 59 pounds per person this year, according to USDA data — and December is peak steakhouse season as companies host year-end parties and families splurge on celebratory meals. But this year, operators are grappling with beef prices hovering near record highs, compressing margins even as demand stays strong. At the high end of the market, many steakhouses have responded by simply charging more. Tommy Hall, who oversees several fine-dining operations including Halls Chophouse, told the Times that beef prices had reached “code red” levels, prompting price increases such as a jump in an eight-ounce filet mignon to more than $60. Upscale restaurants report little resistance from affluent diners, who increasingly gravitate toward the priciest menu items. The underlying problem is a classic supply-demand mismatch. U.S. cattle inventories are at their lowest level since the 1950s, the result of years of drought that shrank grazing land and raised feed costs, combined with meatpacking plant closures that reshaped the market. Since the pandemic, beef prices have climbed steadily, with ground beef now roughly 24% more expensive than in late 2023 and choice cuts rising more than 20%. Midpriced chains face a tougher dilemma. Unlike luxury steakhouses, they cater to more price-sensitive customers and cannot easily pass on higher costs. Outback Steakhouse has raised prices aggressively in recent years, but analysts say that strategy may have backfired: customer traffic has fallen sharply, and its parent company Bloomin’ Brands has seen its stock drop more than 40% over the past year. By contrast, Texas Roadhouse has opted for smaller, more gradual price increases — a strategy that appears to be paying off. The chain continues to draw crowds, with packed parking lots and long waits even as diners enjoy comparatively affordable steaks and a lively, family-friendly atmosphere. The takeaway for consumers is straightforward: steak dinners are getting more expensive, especially at the top end. For restaurants, the challenge is more nuanced — deciding how much of the beef price surge they can pass on without driving customers away, at a moment when demand is strong but costs have rarely been higher. |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
— The House and Senate have adjourned for the remainder of the year and are scheduled to return the week of Jan. 5.
— The holiday week is especially compressed, with U.S. gov’t offices closed Dec. 24–26 after President Donald Trump added Wednesday and Friday to the standard Christmas Day closure. Financial markets will operate on abbreviated hours on Dec. 24, close for Christmas Day, and resume normal trading on Dec. 26.
— The previous gov’t shutdown has disrupted the federal reporting calendar, pushing most economic releases into Monday and Tuesday. Weekly Jobless Claims is currently slated for Wednesday, though that timing appears unlikely given the three-day closure. The Energy Information Administration will delay its weekly Petroleum Status Report — normally released Wednesdays — until Dec. 29. Likewise, the weekly natural gas storage report, typically released Thursday, will also be issued on Dec. 29.
— USDA ag trade outlook back in focus as analysts watch for missing context
Market attention centers on whether USDA revives commentary in its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report
If USDA follows its altered schedule, Tuesday should bring the next Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report — a release that has taken on outsized importance for farm markets, exporters, and policymakers amid rising trade uncertainty.
Beyond the headline export and import projections, the key question this time is whether USDA will restore narrative commentary and analysis, something that has been largely absent from recent editions of the report.
Traditionally, the Outlook has provided not just updated dollar values and volume forecasts, but also explanations tying those projections to exchange rates, global demand, policy changes, weather shocks, and geopolitical developments. In recent reports, however, USDA has pared the document back to a more data-only presentation, leaving analysts to infer the drivers behind sometimes sizable forecast shifts.
That omission has been particularly noticeable as agricultural trade faces a complex mix of pressures: evolving tariff policy under the Trump administration, currency volatility, uneven global growth, shifting demand from China and other major buyers, and growing competition from Brazil and other exporters. Without USDA’s interpretive framework, market participants have been left to piece together the story themselves.
If USDA reintroduces commentary this week, it could provide clearer insight into how the department is weighing those forces — especially whether recent export forecasts reflect confidence in demand recovery or simply conservative assumptions amid policy risk. Conversely, another commentary-free release would reinforce concerns that the Outlook is becoming more of a statistical snapshot than a forward-looking analytical tool.
Either way, Tuesday’s report will be closely read — not just for the numbers, but for what USDA chooses to say, or not say, about the forces shaping U.S. agricultural trade heading into 2026.
| — EVENTS |
Mon., Dec. 22
• President Donald Trump will be at Mar-a-Lago in Florida through Jan. 4, 2026.
• Travel scams. Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and former Gov. Chris Sununu (R-N.H.) and president and CEO of Airlines for America hold a virtual news conference, beginning at 1:30 p.m., to “alert Americans about the risk of travel scams.”
Thurs., Dec. 25
• Christmas performance. Washington National Cathedral holds a Christmas Day organ recital with music performed by Cathedra organists.
| — ECONOMIC REPORTS & FED SPEAKERS |
— Wall Street heads into a holiday-shortened week with markets closed on Christmas Day, trimming trading activity. Even so, investors will have fresh economic data to digest, alongside developments on the mergers-and-acquisitions front. On Tuesday, the government will release the delayed third-quarter gross domestic product report, along with the latest reading of core personal consumption expenditures — the inflation measure most closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
— Key U.S. economic reports (Dec. 22-26)
Note: Some government data releases remain uncertain or delayed due to the previous U.S. gov’t shutdown.
Mon., Dec. 22
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Tue. Dec. 23
• GDP
• Durable Goods Orders
• Housing Starts
• Industrial Production
• Jobless Claims (formally scheduled for Dec. 24, but U.S. gov’t offices will be closed)
Wed., Dec. 24
• Holiday: U.S. gov’t offices closed. Most markets observe abbreviated trading hours.
Thurs. Dec. 25
• Holiday. U.S. markets, gov’t offices are closed for Christmas. Several markets around the world are closed for Christmas.
Fri., Dec. 26
• Existing Home Sales
• Consumer Sentiment
• Holiday. U.S. gov’t offices are closed with no economic data to be released.
| — KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Ag focus: If USDA follows through, Tuesday brings a key report: Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. When the report comes, key will be whether or not USDA adds commentary/analysis, which they have not done in recent reports.
NOTE: U.S. releases are listed, though data may be delayed or postponed due to the prior gov’t shutdown.
Mon., Dec. 22
• Export Inspections
• Meat Price Spreads
• Milk Production
Tue., Dec. 23
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• CFTC Commitments of Traders
• Cold Storage
• Hogs and Pigs
• Broiler Hatchery
• Slaughter Weekly
• Peanut Stocks and Processing
• Peanut Prices
• Export Sales
• Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
Fri., Dec. 26
• Malaysia’s Dec. 1-25 palm oil exports
Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
| — KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Focus: U.S. energy data is due out on Tuesday, ahead of Christmas holidays that will alter trading schedules and release dates of various reports. . The Energy Information Administration will delay its weekly Petroleum Status Report — normally released Wednesdays — until Dec. 29. Likewise, the weekly natural gas storage report, typically released Thursday, will also be issued on Dec. 29.
Looking ahead to the tail end of 2025 and the start of 2026, Brent’s February futures will expire Dec. 30; North Sea programs for February are expected during the period. The main OPEC+ partners are due to hold a video conference on Jan. 4 to review their production plans.
Tue., Dec. 23
• API US inventory report
• Brent February options expire
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• Brent February options expire
Wed. Dec. 24
• Holiday: Several countries including Philippines, Norway, Libya, Venezuela
Thurs., Dec. 25
• Holiday: U.S. markets, gov’t offices are closed for Christmas. Several markets around the world are closed for Christmas.
Fri., Dec. 26
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil delayed until Dec. 29
