Oil Price Jumps on Iran Strikes
House markup of Farm Bill 2.0 | Jobs report Friday | Market volatility re: Iran
| LINKS |
Link: Weekend Updates: GOP Lawmakers Rally Behind Trump
After Iran Strikes
Link: Special Report: U.S. and Israel Strike Iran: Markets Brace
for Energy Shock
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 27
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Feb. 27
| The Week Ahead: March 1, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
TOP STORIES
— Khamenei killed in U.S./Israeli strikes as region braces for escalation
Iran’s supreme leader was reported killed in joint strikes, triggering threats of massive retaliation, widening regional missile activity, and immediate disruption across energy, aviation, and shipping markets. The Trump administration is framing the campaign as sustained pressure aimed at regime change while ruling out ground troops, increasing uncertainty over how the conflict evolves.
— International backing for U.S. and Israel grows
Leaders from the UK, France, and Germany signaled support for allied defense actions and offered cooperation to deter further Iranian retaliation, underscoring a widening Western alignment.
— Senate Republicans outline military objectives
Key GOP lawmakers — including Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), and Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) — emphasized targeting Iran’s missile capacity while stressing the U.S. will not occupy the country and that long-term political change must come internally.
— IRGC threatens unprecedented retaliation
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard vowed a “most destructive” response, launching missiles and drones toward multiple regional targets and expanding fears of a broader regional conflict.
— Iran leadership transition signals continuity
Senior officials moved quickly to project political stability, declaring mourning periods even as public reaction appeared sharply divided between grief and celebration.
— Israel indicates campaign is ongoing
Israeli officials signaled additional strikes are planned, saying key military and nuclear-linked targets remain, suggesting operations are entering a prolonged phase.
— UN backlash and diplomatic scramble
The UN warned of uncontrollable escalation while major powers pushed for restraint; Washington planned high-level consultations with allies and an all-Senate briefing.
— Travel and energy disruptions spread globally
Major Gulf air hubs suspended or rerouted flights while warnings around the Strait of Hormuz heightened concern over oil flows and shipping risk.
— BOTTOM LINE: Khamenei’s death introduces the possibility of regime change — but also raises the risk of prolonged instability.
— Strait of Hormuz: open in law, disrupted in practice
The waterway has not been formally closed, but security threats and unofficial warnings have sharply slowed tanker movement. Even without a legal blockade, insurers and operators are acting cautiously, creating a de facto disruption that is tightening energy markets and raising freight costs.
— BOTTOM LINE: Technically open — operationally high risk, with markets pricing in disruption even before supply losses occur.
— Gas prices face upward pressure after Iran strikes
Oil surged at market open as traders weighed conflict risks against OPEC+ output increases. Analysts expect U.S. gasoline prices to rise modestly in coming weeks, with the Strait of Hormuz and retaliation risk driving sentiment more than fundamentals.
— BOTTOM LINE: Prices likely rise gradually, not spike immediately — unless shipping disruptions escalate.
CONGRESS
— Congressional week ahead: Farm Bill 2.0, Iran fallout, jobs report
Lawmakers return to a crowded week combining agriculture policy, war-powers debates, and market-sensitive economic data.
— Farm Bill 2.0 markup
House Ag Republicans push ahead with a rewritten farm bill, while Democrats led by Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) oppose provisions on pesticide labeling, livestock welfare (Prop 12), and hemp regulation, signaling major amendment fights and difficult bipartisan negotiations.
— War-powers debate intensifies
Iran strikes are expected to trigger bipartisan procedural efforts demanding congressional oversight, classified briefings, and debate over authorization limits.
— Friday jobs report becomes key macro trigger
Employment data will shape Federal Reserve expectations, fiscal messaging, and broader political debate over the economy.
— Other agenda items
Housing legislation, oversight hearings, budget positioning, immigration disputes, and national security hearings round out a busy legislative week.
— BOTTOM LINE: Agriculture policy and Iran escalation dominate headlines, but macro data could drive markets and messaging by week’s end.
KEY EVENTS
— Monday (March 2): U.S.-China competition hearings, disaster policy, electricity pricing, Middle East and trade forums, and the Annual Meat Conference begin.
— Tuesday (March 3): House Ag Farm Bill 2.0 markup; Fed officials speak; DHS oversight; AI, food policy, and global trade forums.
— Wednesday (March 4): USDA trade hearing, USMCA discussion, IRS oversight, pipeline safety, AI workforce, and supply-chain competitiveness events.
— Thursday (March 5): Fed remarks, foreign policy nomination hearing, trade and AI discussions, financial oversight, and appropriations hearings.
— Friday (March 6): Fed speeches, economic forecasts, U.S.–China relations discussions, and safety-net policy events.
ECONOMIC, AG & ENERGY REPORTS
— Wall Street focus: geopolitics first
Markets open this week pricing in Middle East risk, with oil volatility and energy flows at center stage. Friday’s jobs data and retail sales are the main economic catalysts.
— Key USDA reports to watch
Export inspections, oilseed crushings, livestock supply updates, weather reports, export sales, slaughter data, and peanut pricing will provide key signals on export demand, domestic processing strength, and feed outlooks.
— Energy market watch
API and EIA inventory data, Brent expiry, natural gas storage, and industry conference guidance come alongside elevated geopolitical risk — creating conditions for outsized price swings.
— BOTTOM LINE: This week combines macro risk, agricultural fundamentals, and energy volatility — meaning markets will likely trade headlines as much as data.
Weekly Calendar (March 2–6)
— Mon: PMI/ISM data, Jefferies Energy Conference, USDA export inspections and crushings reports.
— Tue: API inventories, consumer confidence, Farm Bill markup, Fed speakers.
— Wed: ADP jobs, ISM Services, EIA petroleum report, USDA livestock/dairy updates.
— Thu: Jobless claims, EIA natural gas data, USDA export sales.
— Fri: U.S. employment report, retail sales, Brent expiry, CFTC positioning, USDA peanut prices.
| TOP STORIES — Khamenei killed in U.S./Israeli strikes as region braces for escalationIran vows major retaliation after death of supreme leader, while global markets, air travel and energy routes face immediate disruption Iranian state television reported that Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader for more than three decades, was killed following joint American and Israeli air strikes that reportedly targeted his office. The announcement marked a dramatic escalation in the conflict, coming after Donald Trump said military operations would continue and renewed calls for regime change in Tehran. Iranian officials also accused the strikes of hitting a primary school, claiming 148 civilians were killed. Trump comments. Speaking in a video message he posted on social media, President Trump said the U.S. would “avenge” the deaths of the three U.S. service members killed in the Iran conflict. The president went on and added: “Sadly, there will likely be more, before it ends. That’s the way it is. Likely be more.” Trump said the U.S. military will continue bombing Iran until his objectives are achieved, while acknowledging that “there will likely be more” American casualties. Trump said the U.S. and Israel had struck hundreds of targets in Iran, including Revolutionary Guard facilities and air defenses. Trump called on Iranian military and police to surrender “for full immunity or face certain death.” Trump: “We cannot allow a nation that raises terrorist armies to possess such weapons that would allow them to extort the world to their evil will,” he said of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “Combat operations continue at this time in full force and they will continue until all of our objectives are achieved.” “When we are finished, take back your government,” Trump urged in a message directed at the Iranian people. “America stands behind you with overwhelming strength and decisive force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny.” The strategy — encouraging Iranians to topple their own unpopular leadership — allows Trump to avoid deploying U.S. ground troops to complete the mission, a step the administration has repeatedly ruled out. The legacy of the Iraq war remains a cautionary backdrop to any potential escalation. Of note: The Wall Street Journal in a commentary wrote: “The biggest mistake President Trump could make now would be to end the war too soon, before Iran’s military and its domestic terror forces have been more thoroughly destroyed.” It concludes: “This doesn’t imply a forever bombing campaign in Iran. But it does mean continuing as long as it takes to ensure that, even if the regime doesn’t fall, it will no longer be a threat to its neighbors. And perhaps it can be weakened enough that its people can muster the ability to install a government that wants to be a normal nation again, rather than one that seeks to spread revolution and kill Jews, Sunni Arabs and Americans.” — International aid for U.S. and Israel. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in a joint statement that they are “appalled” by Iran’s “reckless” strikes on their allies, which are threatening their service members and citizens in the region, and are ready to work with the U.S. and partners to help stop Iran’s retaliatory attacks. — Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) said that U.S. military strikes over the next week and beyond will focus on Iran’s cache of “thousands” of missiles, including sites where those projectiles are deployed and manufactured. “We’ve always said Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. They also can’t be allowed to have a vast missile arsenal and that’s exactly what they have — thousands and thousands of missiles, much more than the United States and Israel have in missile defense combined,” Cotton told CNN’s State of the Union Sunday. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Sunday said the U.S. would not “occupy” Iran after a series of Israeli joint strikes in the country. “We’re not going to occupy the country,” Graham said during an appearance on NBC’s Meet The Press. “We’re going to give the people of Iran a chance to do something they’ve never had before: chart their own destiny.” Senate Republican Dave McCormick (Pa.) on Sunday said the United States won’t be able to “fix” Iran following the death of the Allied Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. “We’re not going to be able to fix Iran. The Iranian people are going to have to step up,” McCormick said during an appearance on Fox News Sunday. — IRGC threatens unprecedented retaliation. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — described as the regime’s elite security and military force — vowed to respond with what it called the most destructive operation in its history. Within hours, Iran launched a fresh wave of missiles and drones across the region. Interceptions were reported over Israel and along routes toward Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, where U.S. military facilities are located. British officials said two missiles were also fired toward Cyprus, underscoring the widening geographic scope of the crisis. — Iran leadership transition signaled amid public divide. Senior Iranian official Ali Larijani signaled continuity in governance, suggesting the political system would remain stable despite the leadership vacuum. Authorities declared a 40-day mourning period and announced a seven-day national holiday. Reports from Iran indicated a divided public reaction — with some citizens mourning Khamenei while others gathered in celebration, reflecting deep domestic tensions. — Israel signals continued military campaign. Israeli officials said the strikes also killed senior regime figures, including the commander of the IRGC and key personnel linked to Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian media reported casualties among members of Khamenei’s family as well. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said “thousands more targets” remained, and Israeli forces launched another wave of strikes early Sunday, indicating the campaign is ongoing rather than concluding. — UN backlash and diplomatic pressure. At an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attacks, warning they could trigger an uncontrollable chain of events in an already volatile region. Russia argued the strikes violated international law. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was scheduled to consult with G7 counterparts, signaling intensive diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation. — The Trump administration is planning an all-Senate briefing on the war in Iran Tuesday, according to multiple reports. — Global travel and energy markets disrupted. The fallout quickly spilled into global transportation and energy systems. Hundreds of thousands of passengers were stranded as major Middle Eastern hubs — including Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha — suspended or diverted flights. Meanwhile, reports indicated Iran’s navy warned ships not to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly one-third of global seaborne oil. If enforced, such restrictions could sharply raise shipping costs and amplify energy market volatility, adding a major economic dimension to what is already one of the most consequential geopolitical escalations in years. See next item for more on shipping issues. Bottom Line: Khamenei’s death has finally opened up the possibility for change. But what kind of change? — Strait of Hormuz: open in law, disrupted in practiceConflicting reports reflect a gap between official status and real-world shipping risk as tensions with Iran escalate Confusion over the status of the Strait of Hormuz has intensified after conflicting reports suggested both that the waterway had been “closed” and that traffic was continuing. The latest picture shows a more nuanced reality: the strait has not been formally shut under international maritime law, but shipping flows have been heavily disrupted by security risks and escalating regional conflict. Maritime authorities say there has been no recognized legal closure or formal navigation warning declaring the route off limits. However, reports indicate Iranian or Iranian-linked units transmitted radio messages warning vessels not to pass — a development that has contributed to widespread caution among ship operators and insurers. In practice, the result has been a sharp slowdown in traffic. Tankers have reportedly paused, anchored, or delayed entry while operators reassess risk following attacks and heightened military activity in the Gulf. Industry tracking data show a significant drop in vessel movement, even as some ships continue to transit under tighter security protocols. Energy markets are closely watching the situation because roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows normally pass through the strait. Even without a formal blockade, voluntary slowdowns can tighten supply and push crude prices higher, particularly when insurers raise war-risk premiums or vessels choose to wait outside the chokepoint. Recent signals suggest Iran may be allowing some traffic to resume, but confidence remains fragile. Analysts describe the current condition as a de facto disruption rather than a legal closure — meaning the waterway is technically open but operationally constrained by risk, uncertainty, and military escalation. For markets and policymakers, the distinction is critical: a declared closure would represent a major geopolitical escalation, while the current environment still leaves room for partial normalization — though conditions could change quickly depending on events on the ground. Any disruption — even temporary or unofficial — immediately raises alarms because:• Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar rely on it for exports. • Global tankers have few practical alternatives• Insurance costs and freight rates typically surge during perceived threats• Energy markets tend to price in “risk premium” quickly Reuters reporting indicates several energy majors and tanker operators have already paused shipments amid the escalating regional conflict and uncertainty over navigation safety. Immediate market and shipping implications. Energy and freight markets are reacting to risk, not just physical supply loss:• Tankers are reportedly slowing, diverting, or waiting near Gulf ports.• Security advisories from naval and shipping authorities are encouraging extreme caution.• Analysts note that geopolitical risk premiums can add several dollars per barrel even before supply is materially disrupted. Historically, even threats around Hormuz — without a complete closure — have been enough to trigger volatility in crude prices and shipping rates. Strategic reality check. Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz many times over the years but has rarely attempted sustained enforcement because:• Iran itself depends on the strait for exports.• A prolonged closure would likely provoke a rapid multinational naval response.• Global economic fallout would be severe and immediate. Still, the current warnings mark one of the most serious escalations in recent years because they coincide with direct military tensions and reported strikes in the region. What to watch next. For markets and policymakers, the next developments to monitor are:1) Whether Iran issues a formal closure order (legal escalation).2) Actual vessel traffic data: are tankers turning back or waiting offshore?3) Insurance and war-risk premiums: an early signal of shipping disruption.4) Response from U.S./allied naval forces ensuring freedom of navigation. Bottom Line: The situation is moving fast, but right now the Strait of Hormuz appears to be in a high-risk, contested operational state rather than a confirmed full closure. Even without a complete blockade, the messaging alone is enough to tighten energy markets and add geopolitical risk — which is why traders and shipping operators are treating the threat seriously. — Gas prices face upward pressure after U.S. strikes on IranRising geopolitical risk and oil-market uncertainty could lift pump prices in the weeks ahead Oil markets open more than 7% higher Sunday as trading resumed, despite OPEC+ pledging to raise production. OPEC+ agreed to lift output by about 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, but analysts argue this is small relative to potential disruptions tied to the current conflict. U.S. crude oil futures rose more than 7%, or $5.08, to $72.10 per barrel by 6:14 p.m. ET. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, ended last week at about $67 a barrel, up 16% this year and 21% from the 52-week low. Global benchmark Brent jumped about 8%, or $5.91, to $78.78. Brent crude, ended last week just under $73 a barrel, up 19% so far this year and up 23% from its 52-week low in December. Crude prices in Asia jumped as much as 13%. Investors interpreted Trump’s comments as a signal that the conflict may intensify rather than de-escalate. Even temporary disruptions — or credible threats — to regional shipping lanes could outweigh planned supply increases from OPEC+. A supply boost of roughly 206,000 barrels per day is small compared with the scale of potential disruptions if millions of barrels moving through Hormuz are delayed or rerouted. That imbalance explains why traders reacted more to geopolitical headlines than to traditional supply fundamentals when markets opened in Asia. It is unclear who will ultimately govern the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC. How the oil market ultimately reacts will depend on whether the war leads to a prolonged disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the most important chokepoint in the world for the global oil trade. “We view the pace of the rebound in traffic through Hormuz and the extent of Iranian retaliation as key for the oil price in the next few days,” UBS analysts led by Henri Patricot told clients in a Sunday note. Gasoline prices in the U.S. may move higher in the coming weeks following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, as traders weigh the potential for supply disruptions and increased geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Oil prices expected to react first. Crude oil — which represents more than half of the retail cost of gasoline — settled near $72.87 per barrel before the attacks. Analysts expect prices to rise when markets reopen, reflecting concerns that tensions could disrupt global energy flows. Higher crude prices generally translate into higher gasoline costs, though the pass-through to consumers typically happens gradually rather than immediately. Pump prices likely to climb modestly. According to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the U.S. national average gasoline price — currently around $3 per gallon — could increase to approximately $3.10 to $3.15 per gallon over the next several weeks if oil prices remain elevated. Price increases at retail stations usually appear incrementally, often by just a few cents at a time, as wholesalers and retailers adjust inventories and pricing. Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk. The biggest concern for energy markets is not only Iran’s own exports but potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor between Iran and Oman that handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Reports suggest Iran’s Revolutionary Guards may be attempting to restrict passage through the strait, raising fears that any disruption — even temporary rerouting — could pressure prices higher worldwide. Factors that could limit the upside. While markets are on alert, analysts note that oil facilities have not been directly targeted so far. If the conflict stays contained and shipping lanes remain open, the impact on gasoline prices could be more moderate. Additional seasonal pressures. U.S. fuel markets are also transitioning to summer-blend gasoline, a seasonal shift that often adds volatility and can contribute to short-term price increases independent of geopolitical events. Bottom Line: Gasoline prices appear poised to rise modestly rather than spike suddenly. The key variables for drivers will be whether tensions escalate further and whether oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain uninterrupted. If the situation stabilizes and supply remains intact, price increases may be limited; however, prolonged disruption risks could push fuel costs higher going into spring. |
| —CONGRESS |
—Congressional week ahead: Farm Bill 2.0, Iran fallout and a high-stakes jobs report
Lawmakers return for a consequential week shaped by farm policy fights, war-powers debate and key economic data
Congress heads into the week of March 2, with a crowded agenda that mixes domestic policy, geopolitical fallout and market-moving economic data. Agriculture policy — particularly the House Ag Committee’s expected markup of Farm Bill 2.0 — will be one of the headline items, but lawmakers will also confront escalating debate over U.S. military strikes on Iran and the implications of Friday’s critical employment report.
—Farm Bill 2.0 markup takes center stage. The House Ag Committee late Tuesday afternoon will begin work advancing what Republican leadership has branded “Farm Bill 2.0,” restarting the long-stalled reauthorization process after repeated extensions.
Sharp Democratic pushback. Ranking Democrat Angie Craig (D-Minn.) calls GOP draft “full of non-starters” on pesticides, livestock welfare and hemp, which she says could derail bipartisan cooperation, signaling a difficult path forward as lawmakers attempt to rebuild consensus on long-delayed farm legislation.
Key areas driving Democratic opposition
1) Pesticide labeling protections. One of the most controversial sections would limit the ability of states and courts to penalize pesticide manufacturers over health warnings beyond those recognized by EPA-approved labels.
Republican supporters say the language is designed to create regulatory uniformity and prevent a patchwork of state-level litigation. Critics — including many Democrats — argue it could weaken failure-to-warn lawsuits and shield manufacturers from liability.
Craig has pointed to this provision as a major sticking point, reflecting broader Democratic concern that the bill favors chemical companies over consumer and environmental protections.
2) Livestock welfare and Proposition 12. The GOP draft includes language aimed at blocking California’s Proposition 12 animal-welfare standards from applying to out-of-state producers — a longstanding priority for many livestock groups. While supporters argue the move would prevent state mandates from disrupting national meat markets, opponents see it as federal pre-emption of state animal-welfare rules, another flashpoint in negotiations.
3) Hemp policy also remains contentious. The legislation would tighten regulatory oversight by requiring testing based on “total THC” rather than delta-9 THC alone and directing USDA to coordinate more closely with DEA on lab accreditation. These changes are intended to address concerns about intoxicating hemp products but have generated pushback from parts of the hemp industry and some lawmakers worried about unintended impacts on producers and processors.
Craig’s broader argument. Craig says the GOP farm bill measure fails to prioritize what Democrats see as immediate farmer concerns — including trade stability, input costs and expansion of domestic fuel markets such as year-round E15. Her office has argued that the bill, as written, complicates chances for bipartisan agreement at a time when producers are seeking certainty amid inflation, tariff uncertainty and volatile commodity markets.
What Democrats are expected to push for. Democrats on the committee are likely to press several changes during markup and amendment debates, including:
• Higher conservation funding and stronger climate-related incentives.
• Protection of nutrition assistance funding levels.
• Expanded support for specialty crops and local food systems.
• Equity and rural development provisions aimed at underserved producers.
• Stronger guardrails around crop-insurance reforms.
Where this goes next. Republicans hold only a slim majority on the committee, meaning some Democratic support may ultimately be needed to move the bill through the House — especially if conservative fiscal members oppose subsidy provisions as some expect.
The markup is therefore shaping up as more than a procedural step; it is an early test of whether lawmakers can bridge widening ideological divides on agriculture policy heading into the 2026 election cycle.
Bottom Line: Craig’s warning that the bill is “full of non-starters” underscores a familiar reality in farm bill politics — the hardest debates are often not about commodity programs themselves, but about attached policy riders touching pesticides, livestock regulation and emerging sectors like hemp. Whether House leaders soften those provisions or push forward unchanged will likely determine whether Farm Bill 2.0 becomes a bipartisan compromise — or another stalled rewrite of U.S. agricultural policy.
—Iran strikes push war-powers debate to the forefront. Congress returns with growing pressure over the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — and some questions about whether the administration acted without sufficient congressional authorization. Note: We covered the ongoing Iran situation in depth over the weekend via a special report (link) and in Weekend Updates (link).
Several lawmakers in both parties have demanded immediate debate over the War Powers Resolution, arguing Congress must reassert authority over military action.
What lawmakers are arguing. Democratic leaders say Congress must vote quickly on limits or authorization for further actions. Some Republicans have backed the operation as necessary deterrence, while others raise constitutional concerns.
Calls are growing for formal classified briefings and a fuller strategy outline. As previously mentioned, the Trump administration is planning an all-Senate briefing on the war in Iran Tuesday, according to multiple reports.
Why this matters politically. The strikes introduce several dynamics likely to shape the week:
• Potential emergency briefings in both chambers.
• Debate over whether additional military funding or authorizations are needed.
• Pressure from lawmakers worried about escalation and energy market fallout.
Expect multiple procedural motions tied to war powers — even if passage remains uncertain.
—Friday jobs report: the week’s biggest market catalyst. While legislative negotiations dominate headlines, policymakers and markets alike will be watching one non-political event: the February Employment Situation report, scheduled for release Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Why Congress cares. The jobs report will influence:
• Federal Reserve expectations heading into spring.
• Fiscal policy debates on spending and deficits.
• Labor-market messaging heading into mid-year political campaigns.
After a period of data disruptions tied to funding uncertainty earlier this year, lawmakers will be watching closely for signals on:
• Hiring momentum.
• Wage growth.
• Whether labor softening is accelerating or stabilizing.
A strong print could reinforce arguments for fiscal restraint; weaker data may strengthen calls for additional economic support measures.
—Other major congressional agenda items. Beyond agriculture and Iran, several additional priorities are likely to see floor or committee action:
• Senate floor activity: The Senate returns Monday afternoon and is set to resume consideration of housing legislation, with votes expected early in the week.
• Committee work and budget positioning
• Early groundwork for spring appropriations negotiations.
• Oversight hearings tied to national security and executive authority.
• Continued debate over immigration-related funding disputes that helped trigger earlier shutdown concerns.
—Economic and markets watch. Lawmakers are increasingly focused on how geopolitics interacts with domestic economics:
• Oil price volatility tied to Middle East tensions.
• Shipping and insurance risk through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Inflation sensitivity if energy markets tighten.
These macro concerns will likely inform both floor speeches and policy messaging throughout the week.
| —KEY EVENTS |
Mon., March 2
• U.S./China panel meeting. U.S./China Economic and Security Review Commission holds a hearing on “Part of Your World: US-China Competition Under the Sea.”
• Annual Meat Conference, through Wednesday, National Harbor, Maryland.
• Disaster response. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) virtual discussion on “Tackling Disaster Risk: Can Innovative Anticipatory Action and Financing Strengthen Developing Country Resilience and Response?”
• China high tech. CSIS virtual discussion on the new report “The Power of Innovation: The Strategic Value of China’s High-Tech Drive.”
• U.S./Japan history. Public Diplomacy Council of America; the University of Southern California Annenberg Center on Communication Leadership and Policy; the George Washington University (GWU) Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication; the Embassy of Japan; the Japan Information & Culture Center; and the USC Center on Public Diplomacy hold a forum on “Japan’s Gift of 250 Cherry Trees to Celebrate America’s Birthday – Grassroots Exchanges and Public Diplomacy.”
• Ukraine and the Middle East. Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum on “Ukraine Diplomacy and the Middle East.”
• Trump doctrine. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft holds a virtual discussion on “The Trump Doctrine,” focusing on “what it means when great powers prioritize economic strangulation over diplomacy.”
• Gaza reconstruction. Henry L. Stimson Center and EcoPeace Middle East hold a discussion on “Gaza’s Reconstruction: A Conversation on Water, Energy, and Infrastructure.”
• Cuba outlook. Foreign Policy webinar on “Is Cuba Next?”
Electricity prices. The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on “Why are electricity prices rising in the U.S. and what can be done about it?”
• Tue., March 3
• Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are scheduled to speak.
• Farm Bill 2.0 markup. House Ag Committee markup of HR 7567, the “Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026.”
• Food and agriculture issues. Inter-American Dialogue event “From Production to Consumption: Japan – Latin America Cooperation in Food and Agriculture.”
• DHS oversight. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security.” DHS Secretary Kristi Noem testifies.
• AGOA outlook. CSIS discussion on “The Future of AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act): Building American Prosperity Through African Partnership.”
• North Korea. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion on “North Korea’s Ninth Party Congress: Domestic and Global Implications.”
• Sino/Russia relations. Hudson Institute discussion on “A Strategic Response to Sino-Russian Cooperation: Perspectives from Europe and the Indo-Pacific.”
• Iran drones and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Holding enablers accountable: The Islamic Republic of Iran’s role in Russia’s drone war.”
• AI regulation. CSIS virtual discussion on “AI Regulation and Innovation.”
• AI issues. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Science, Manufacturing, and Competitiveness Subcommittee hearing on “Less Help, More Help: AI That Improves Safety, Productivity, and Care.”
• Food additives. U.S. Codex office virtual meeting of the Codex Alimentarius Commission’s Codex Committee on Food Additives (CCFA).
• Wildfire policy. Environmental and Energy Study Institute briefing on “Igniting Innovation: Progress and a Path Forward for Wildfire Policy.”
Wed., March 4
• USDA trade and foreign affairs. House Appropriations Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “U.S. Department of Agriculture, Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs.” USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg testifies.
• USMCA renegotiation. Brookings Institution forum on “USMCA Forward 2026 launch: The joint review and the future of North American trade.” Highlights: — Discussion on “Sectoral and policy perspectives” — Discussion on “Business perspectives.”
• DHS oversight. House Judiciary Committee hearing on “Oversight of the Department of Homeland Security.” DHS Secretary Kristi Noem testifies.
• U.S./Japan economic relationship. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “The state of US-Japan economic relations in a changing global economy.”
• STB Railroad panel. Surface Transportation Board meeting of the Rail Energy Transportation Advisory Committee (RETAC) for a rail performance measures review, industry segment updates by RETAC members and a roundtable discussion.
• Communications issues. Final day of the ACA Connects 2026 Summit with sessions focusing on broadband and cybersecurity.
• Misuse of federal funds. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing on “Oversight of Fraud and Misuse of Federal Funds in Minnesota: Part II.” Minnesota Governor Tim Walz testifies.
• Veterans’ issues. House Veterans’ Affairs Committee joint hearing on “Legislative Presentation of The American Legion & Multi VSOs (Veterans Service Organizations).
• IRS oversight. House Ways and Means Committee hearing on the Internal Revenue Service. IRS CEO Frank J. Bisignano testifies.
• Toxic Substances Control Act reauthorization. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on “the Toxic Substances Control Act Fee Reauthorization and Improvement Act of 2026.”
• Future of newspapers. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on “The Washington Post and the Future of Newspapers in America.”
• AI workforce. House Education and Workforce Higher Education and Workforce Development Subcommittee hearing on “Building an AI-Ready America: Strengthening Employer-Led Training.”
• Pipeline safety. House Energy and Commerce Energy Subcommittee hearing on “America’s Energy Infrastructure: Authorizing Pipeline Safety.”
• Destination-based cash flow tax. Joint Economic Committee hearing on “Evaluating the U.S. Competitiveness and Investment Advantages of a Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax (DBCFT).”
• SEC private market valuations. =Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) Division of Investment Management holds a meeting to discuss private market valuations and responsible retailization.
• Migratory Bird Act oversight. House Natural Resources Water, Wildlife and Fisheries Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of the Migratory Bird Treaty Act.”
• Developing brownfield sites. House Energy and Commerce Environment hearing on “Ready for Reuse: Legislative Proposals to Unleash the Potential of America’s Brownfields Sites.”
• CDLs issued to illegal immigrants. House Homeland Security Oversight, Investigations and Accountability Subcommittee hearing on “Highway Safety Under Threat: Examining Non-Domiciled CDL (Commercial Driver’s License) Issuance to Illegal Aliens.”
• Latin American, Caribbean economic growth. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “Investing in health for economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean.”
• Federal real estate costs. House Transportation and Infrastructure Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management Subcommittee hearing on “The General Services Administration: Examining the Future of Federal Real Estate Management to Reduce Costs for the Taxpayer.”
• China influence in Europe. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing on “Responding to China’s Infiltration and Coercion in Europe.”
• U.S. global competitiveness. Atlantic Council discussion on “U.S. priorities for global competitiveness.”
• Critical mineral supply chains. Hudson Institute discussion on “Securing America’s Critical Mineral Supply Chain.”
Thur., March 5
• Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is scheduled to deliver virtual remarks to the Navigating What’s Next: Perspective on the Economy & Innovation.
• Nomination hearing: Assistant Secretary of State. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the nomination of Frank Garcia to be assistant secretary of State for African affairs.
• AI. International Food Policy Research Institute webinar, “AI Innovation and Regulation for Producers and Users.”
• Veterinary drug residues. U.S. Codex Office virtual meeting of the Codex Alimentarius Commission’s Codex Committee on Residues of Veterinary Drugs in Foods.
• WTO and digital trade, AI. Washington International Trade Association virtual discussion on “WTO (World Trade Organization) Matters: Trading with Intelligence — Unlocking the Benefits of Digital Trade, AI and Emerging Technologies.”
• U.S. and Turkey relations. Atlantic Council discussion on “Navigating a new era in Syria: Strategic opportunities for the U.S. and Turkey.”
• Fraud and financial institutions. House Financial Services Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on “Fighting Fraud on the Front Lines: Challenges and Opportunities for Financial Institutions.”
• DOT, HUD inspector generals. House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Inspectors General for the Department of Transportation and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.”
• National security & public diplomacy. House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on “Advancing National Security through Public Diplomacy.”
• Recovering pandemic funds. House Ways and Means Work and Welfare Subcommittee hearing on “Reclaiming ‘Forgotten’ Fraudulent Pandemic Unemployment Funds Frozen by Banks.”
• House Appropriations subcommittee ‘member day.’ House Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Member Day.”
• House Appropriations subcommittee ‘member day.’ The House Appropriations Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Member Day.”
• Investment pledges. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “The Trump administration’s America First investment pledges.”
• Beyond USMCA. Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Center for Canadian Studies discussion on “Beyond USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada): A New Vision of North America. Methodology, Polling, Research.”
• Digital content. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation discussion on “Context Matters: Building Trust in Digital Content.”
• American citizens’ detention. American Bar Association discussion on “Hostage Diplomacy and the Rule of Law: The Wrongful Detention of American Citizens.”
• Self-regulating groups. House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee hearing on “The Role of Self-Regulatory Organizations in U.S. Markets: Examining FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) and the MSRB (Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board).”
Fri., March 6
• Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is scheduled to speak.
• Budget hearing: GPO, Library of Congress. House Appropriations Legislative Branch Subcommittee hearing on “Budget Hearing – Library of Congress & U.S. Government Publishing Office.”
• Economic forecast. American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee virtual news conference to provide an economic forecast.
• U.S./China relations. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion on “the current state of U.S./China bilateral relations, the challenges of strategic competition, and the future of ties between Washington and Beijing.”
• Safety net issues. Urban Institute virtual discussion on “State of the Safety Net.”
| —ECONOMIC, AG & ENERGY REPORTS |
—Wall Street begins the week squarely focused on geopolitical risk after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran that reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, moves that have intensified calls from Washington and Jerusalem for regime change.
Energy markets are expected to feel the most immediate impact. Oil traders are bracing for heightened volatility as markets assess the implications of instability inside a key OPEC producer.
On the economic calendar, attention shifts to Friday’s major data releases, led by the February jobs report. Investors will also watch January retail sales figures for fresh signals on consumer demand and broader economic momentum.
—Key USDA reports to watch: Export demand, crop use, and livestock supplies signals headline the USDA calendar. The week of March 2 features a dense set of USDA data releases that will help shape near-term expectations for crop demand, livestock supplies, and broader agricultural market direction. While dozens of reports are scheduled, several stand out as likely market movers for producers, traders, and policy watchers.
Monday — Demand and processing trends in focus. Early in the week, USDA’s AMS Export Inspections report will provide a fresh read on overseas demand by measuring the volume of grain and oilseeds moving through U.S. export channels. These numbers are closely watched as an early signal for whether exports are tracking USDA’s current projections.
Also Monday, NASS issues several processing reports, including Cotton System Consumption and Stocks and the Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings releases. These reports offer insight into domestic textile use, soybean and other oilseed processing activity, and end-product demand — key indicators for soybean crush margins and vegetable oil markets. The Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report adds another layer by tracking how much corn and other grains are being converted into ethanol and feed byproducts.
Wednesday — Weather, dairy and livestock updates. Midweek brings a broad set of livestock and production indicators. NASS releases Dairy Products, which tracks output of cheese, butter and milk powders — data that can shift dairy price expectations quickly. The United States and Canadian Cattle and United States and Canadian Hogs reports provide a cross-border look at herd numbers and supply trends that are important for feed demand and protein markets.
Also on Wednesday, the Weekly Weather: State Stories report will draw attention as producers assess soil moisture and planting conditions heading into spring, especially given early season weather volatility in key growing regions.
Thursday — Export sales and livestock processing. Thursday’s FAS Export Sales report is one of the most closely followed USDA releases each week. It shows new sales and shipments by destination, offering real-time clues about buyer behavior and competitiveness of U.S. commodities versus global suppliers.
NASS also publishes Slaughter Weekly, which provides a snapshot of cattle and hog processing activity — useful for gauging meat supply pipeline pressure and near-term pricing signals.
Friday — Peanut sector pricing. The week wraps up with NASS Peanut Prices, a specialized but important report for the Southeast, offering insight into farm-level price trends and contract dynamics.
Why this week matters. The week’s USDA releases will help clarify three key themes:
•Export momentum: Export Inspections and Export Sales will show whether global demand is holding up amid trade and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Domestic processing strength: Crushings and co-products data will indicate profitability across soybean, corn and ethanol sectors.
• Livestock and weather signals: Midweek livestock and weather reports could shape expectations for feed demand and spring planting conditions.
For markets already balancing macroeconomic uncertainty, energy volatility, and evolving trade policy, this week’s USDA data will serve as an important reality check on underlying agricultural fundamentals.
—Energy market watch: Inventory data, OPEC-linked signals, and macro releases converge in a potentially market-moving week. But the major development is how energy markets react to the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
Energy markets face a dense lineup of reports and events during the week, with traders balancing U.S. supply data, global inventory signals, macroeconomic indicators, and sector-specific conferences that could shape expectations for crude oil, natural gas, refined products, and power markets.
Monday, March 2: Conference signals and early demand indicators. Energy markets begin the week with the Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy and Utilities Conference in New York, which runs through Wednesday. These investor conferences often generate forward guidance from energy executives on capital spending, refining margins, and expectations for fuel demand.
Why markets care:
• Utility and power-sector outlooks can affect natural gas demand expectations.
• Clean energy commentary may influence sentiment around renewables versus traditional fuels.
• Producer guidance may hint at drilling discipline or expansion plans heading into spring.
Macro releases such as PMI and ISM Manufacturing will also be closely watched because manufacturing activity is a leading indicator for diesel demand and industrial energy consumption.
Tuesday, March 3: API inventory data sets the tone. The first hard supply signal arrives Tuesday with the API U.S. inventory report, a widely watched preview ahead of official government data.
Key focus areas:
• Crude oil stock changes — indicate refinery demand and import/export balance.
• Gasoline inventories — reflect consumer fuel demand trends.
• Distillates — especially important for freight and industrial activity.
Markets typically treat the API numbers as directional rather than definitive, but large surprises often trigger overnight volatility ahead of Wednesday’s EIA release.
Additional energy context comes from the H2 Forum in Berlin, highlighting longer-term hydrogen development — a slower-moving but increasingly important structural theme for European energy strategy.
Wednesday, March 4: The big day: EIA Petroleum Status Report. Midweek brings the most market-moving release: the EIA Petroleum Status Report, alongside Weekly Ethanol Production data.
Why this matters:
1. Crude inventories. A drawdown often signals stronger refinery runs or exports. A build may suggest softer demand or higher imports.
2. Gasoline and distillates. Traders will watch for signs of early spring driving demand. Distillate trends provide insight into freight and manufacturing activity.
3. Ethanol production. Important for both fuel blending margins and agricultural markets (especially corn demand). Rising production could indicate stronger gasoline blending or export interest.
Additional insight comes from Genscape ARA inventory data, which tracks European refined product stocks — critical as markets continue evaluating supply stability amid geopolitical tensions and shipping risks.
Thursday, March 5: Natural gas and global supply signals. Attention shifts to natural gas and international crude logistics.
Key reports:
•EIA Natural Gas Storage Report. Measures U.S. storage withdrawals or injections. Late-winter weather patterns can produce sharp price swings. Traders will assess whether inventories are tightening faster than expected.
•Main North Sea loading programs (April): These schedules influence Brent benchmark supply expectations. Lower loading volumes can tighten Atlantic Basin crude availability and support prices.
•Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data: Acts as a barometer for Asian demand, especially diesel and jet fuel. High inventories may signal weak demand; draws suggest stronger regional consumption.
Friday, March 6:Positioning and market sentiment. Friday focuses less on physical supply and more on market positioning and expectations.
Key items:
•Brent April futures expiry. Expiry can trigger volatility as traders roll positions. Often reveals real sentiment versus speculative positioning.
•CFTC Commitments of Traders. Shows hedge fund and commercial positioning in oil and gas markets. Helps gauge whether markets are crowded long or short.
•Baker-Hughes Rig Count: A leading indicator for future U.S. oil and gas production. Rising rig counts suggest future supply growth; declines hint at tightening supply later in the year.
What energy traders will watch most this week
1. Impacts of U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran.
2. Inventory alignment. If API and EIA data both show draws, bullish momentum could build quickly — especially with ongoing geopolitical risk premiums already embedded in oil prices.
3. Refining and fuel demand. Gasoline and distillate trends will hint at whether global demand is holding despite economic uncertainty.
4. Natural gas volatility. Weather-driven storage changes could amplify price swings as the market transitions toward spring.
5. Investor conference guidance. Executive commentary early in the week may shape expectations for capex, drilling activity, and power-sector demand.
Bottom Line: The combination of API and EIA inventory reports, natural gas data, Brent expiry, and positioning reports makes this a high-impact week for energy markets. With global geopolitical risk still elevated and traders closely watching supply flows through key chokepoints, even routine inventory surprises could generate outsized moves across crude oil, refined products, and natural gas.
Economic reports/events. PMI Manufacturing | ISM Manufacturing Index Earnings: Galp; VG
Energy reports. Jefferies Power, Energy, Clean Energy and Utilities Conference, New York; runs through Wednesday | Holidays: South Korea.
USDA reports. AMS. Export Inspections NASS. Cotton System Consumption and Stocks | Cotton System Consumption and Stocks Annual | Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings – Annual | Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption | Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production
Tue., March 3
Economic reports/events. Motor Vehicle Sales | FHFA House Price Index | Wholesale Trade | Richmond Fed Manufacturing | Consumer Confidence | Earnings: Woodside Energy; Endesa; NRG Energy
Energy reports. API US inventory report | H2 Forum Berlin; runs through Wednesday | Holidays: Thailand; India; Israel.
Wed., March 4
Economic reports/events: ADP Employment Report | PMI Composite Final | ISM Services Index | Beige Book |
Earnings: Ecopetrol.
Energy reports. EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | Genscape ARA inventories | Holidays: India.
USDA reports. NASS: Weekly Weather: State Stories | Dairy Products | United States and Canadian Cattle | ICE Gasoil March options expire United States and Canadian Hogs | CE: Barley, Oats, Winter Wheat, Durum Wheat, Spring Wheat | Broiler Hatchery
Thur., March 5
Economic reports/events. Jobless Claims | Import and Export Prices | Productivity and Costs | Earnings: Harbour Energy; Canadian Natural Resources; Petrobras.
Energy reports. EIA Natural Gas Report | Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | Main North Sea loading programs due (April) | Holiday: Myanmar.
USDA reports. FAS: Export Sales NASS: North American Potatoes | Slaughter Weekly
Fri., March 6
Economic reports/events. Employment | Retail Sales | Business Inventories | Consumer Credit | Earnings: BASF; Vallourec
Energy reports. Brent April futures expire | ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders | Baker-Hughes Rig Count | Holiday: Taiwan.
USDA reports. NASS: Peanut Prices
