Oil Prices Surge as G7 Weighs Emergency Oil Reserve Release
Iran wants to raise costs of conflict high enough that Trump would seek to end operation early
| LINKS |
Link: Oil Surges Past $100 as Iran War Escalates
Link: The Week Ahead, March 8: Where’s Year-Round E15 Legislation?
Link: Weekend Updates, March 7: USDA’s Vaden on Coming RVO/RFS:
‘Most Pro-Biofuels Rule any Administration of Any Party Has Put Out’
Link: Vaden on the State of U.S. Agriculture
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 6 (Interview with USDA Deputy Stephen Vaden)
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 6 (Vaden interview)
| Updates: Policy/News/Markets, March 9, 2026 |
| UP FRONT |
Top Stories
— Volatile war markets: Escalating conflict with Iran is sending shockwaves through global markets as investors weigh the risk that Tehran’s strategy is to drive economic pain high enough to pressure the U.S. to end the campaign. Oil surged above $100 per barrel and briefly approached $120 as the Strait of Hormuz nearly shut down, tightening global supplies. The rally is spilling into agriculture — lifting soybean oil, grain and wheat prices as biofuel demand expectations rise and fertilizer and freight disruptions ripple across crop markets. Investors increasingly fear a prolonged supply shock that could revive inflation and slow global growth.
— Trump defends oil spike amid Iran conflict: President Donald Trump argued that the recent jump in oil prices is a “very small price to pay” for eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat, framing the surge as a temporary consequence of restoring global security. Administration officials say tanker traffic could normalize within weeks once the conflict stabilizes and predict U.S. gasoline prices will eventually fall back below $3 per gallon.
— G7 weighs emergency oil reserve release: Finance ministers from the Group of Seven are preparing an emergency discussion on a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves through the International Energy Agency as crude prices surge. Officials hope additional supply could calm markets and prevent the Gulf conflict from triggering a sustained global energy shock.
— Fertilizer supply fears rise: Disruptions in the Gulf are threatening fertilizer production and shipments just as farmers prepare for spring applications. With natural gas supplies strained and shipping through Hormuz slowed, analysts warn the situation could echo the fertilizer crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, potentially tightening crop supplies and pushing food prices higher later this year.
— Water becomes a strategic target: An Iranian strike on a Bahraini desalination plant has highlighted a new vulnerability in the Gulf conflict — the region’s dependence on seawater desalination for drinking water. Analysts warn that attacks on water infrastructure could quickly escalate humanitarian and economic risks across Gulf states already dealing with energy and shipping disruptions.
— Trump, Carney discuss trade and Middle East tensions: President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke Sunday about the economic fallout from the Gulf conflict and the state of U.S.–Canada trade relations, agreeing to stay in close contact as energy shocks and supply chain risks ripple through global markets.
— Trump eyes surprise economic deal with Cuba: The Trump administration is exploring a potential economic agreement with Cuba that could include easing travel restrictions and cooperation in ports, energy and tourism, according to a USA Today exclusive. Officials appear to be leveraging Cuba’s economic distress following the loss of Venezuelan oil support to pursue a broader geopolitical opening.
— Tariff refund debate emerges: As the U.S. prepares to return roughly $166 billion in tariff payments after recent court rulings, economists warn companies that passed those costs on to customers could effectively be paid twice — first through higher prices and again through government refunds. The issue could become politically sensitive, particularly in agriculture where farmers absorbed higher fertilizer and equipment costs.
— Airport delays spread amid DHS funding lapse: Long security lines are forming at major U.S. airports as the partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security strains TSA operations. Travelers at several hubs faced waits exceeding three hours as staffing shortages and rising spring travel volumes combine to slow passenger screening.
Financial Markets
— War markets today: Global markets tumbled as investors reacted to the energy shock. U.S. stock futures fell roughly 1%, South Korea’s benchmark index dropped about 6% and Japan’s Nikkei declined around 5%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 4.2% while the dollar strengthened, reflecting fears that rising energy costs could trigger stagflation.
Ag Markets
— JBS labor tensions stir cattle market uncertainty: Reports of a potential strike at JBS facilities are weighing on livestock markets as traders assess the risk of reduced slaughter capacity. Analysts say any slowdown in processing could pressure cash cattle prices while keeping wholesale beef prices elevated — widening packer margins and renewing debate over industry concentration.
— Philippines surpasses China as Brazil’s top pork buyer: The Philippines overtook China as the largest destination for Brazilian pork exports in 2025 as African swine fever continues to constrain the country’s domestic hog sector. Strong Southeast Asian demand is reshaping global pork trade flows and supporting Brazil’s export growth.
— Indonesia considers B50 biodiesel mandate: Jakarta is evaluating whether to accelerate a shift to a B50 biodiesel blend as crude oil prices surge above $100 per barrel. Expanding palm-oil-based biofuel production could tighten global vegetable oil supplies and further support prices for biofuel feedstocks.
— Brazilian chicken exporters reroute shipments: Brazil’s poultry industry is scrambling to bypass the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict disrupted a key shipping corridor to Middle Eastern markets. Exporters are exploring alternative sea and land routes to maintain deliveries to Gulf countries heavily dependent on Brazilian chicken.
USDA Corn Estimates
— Corn growers challenge USDA reporting: The Iowa Corn Growers Association is urging the Trump administration and Congress to investigate USDA crop estimates after a January NASS report triggered a sharp selloff in corn futures. With prices now back near pre-report levels, farmers argue the data may have overstated supplies and undermined confidence in federal crop reporting.
Energy Markets & Policy
— Oil shock intensifies: Crude prices spiked violently as the Gulf conflict disrupted supplies across the region. Brent and WTI briefly approached $120 per barrel amid refinery shutdowns, production cuts and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which about one-fifth of global oil and LNG normally flows.
Congress
— Senate in session as House GOP meets in Doral: The Senate returns to work this week while House Republicans gather in Florida for their annual legislative retreat at Trump National Doral. President Donald Trump is set to address lawmakers as leaders begin early planning for a potential second budget reconciliation package later this year.
Weather
— Storm threats and unseasonable warmth: The National Weather Service warns of widespread showers and severe storms across the Midwest and Plains this week, while the Pacific Northwest faces heavy rain and mountain snow. Much of the country will see well-above-average temperatures with possible record highs.
TOP STORIES — Volatile war markets: Iran’s apparent strategy is to raise the costs of the conflict high enough that the United States — and President Donald Trump — would seek to end the operation early. The Trump administration argues that approach will fail, emphasizing in its messaging that efforts are focused on restoring stability and that the recent spike in prices is expected to be temporary. Chicago soybean oil futures jumped, as surging energy prices tied to the escalating Middle East conflict boosted demand expectations for crops used in biofuel production. Crude oil pushed above $100 a barrel as additional Middle Eastern producers curtailed output and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, tightening global energy supplies. Brent traded 11% higher around $103 a barrel, on course for the biggest daily gain in dollar terms since futures began trading in 1988. Prices eased from almost $120 earlier. The rally is spilling into agricultural markets by lifting prices for vegetable oils and grains used in renewable fuels. Wheat futures also extended their advance after posting their largest one-day gain since 2024 on Friday. The conflict is disrupting fertilizer trade and driving up freight costs, factors that are providing broader support across grain markets. Bottom Line: Investors are pricing in a deeper and longer-lasting supply shock — one that could squeeze growth while reigniting inflation. The selling means that about $6 trillion of market value has now been erased from global stocks since the war in Iran began.  — Trump defends oil spike amid Iran conflictPresident says higher energy costs are a “very small price to pay” for eliminating nuclear threat President Donald Trump defended the recent surge in global oil prices after crude briefly climbed above $100 per barrel, arguing that the increase is justified by U.S. and allied military actions targeting Iran’s nuclear capabilities. In a Sunday post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that higher “short term oil prices” are a “very small price to pay” for destroying what he described as Iran’s nuclear threat. He added that the costs would be temporary and necessary for broader security, stating that the price increase is minor compared with achieving “U.S.A. and world safety and peace.” The remarks came as energy markets reacted to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the near-shutdown of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. Administration officials sought to reassure consumers that the price spike may be short-lived. Appearing on CNN’s State of the Union, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said gasoline prices should fall again soon, predicting they will dip below $3 per gallon “before too long.” Wright emphasized that pump prices remain roughly $1.50 per gallon lower than during the middle of the Biden administration and said the recent increase tied to the Iran conflict should last only weeks rather than months. He added that once security conditions improve, tankers currently stranded in the Persian Gulf are expected to resume shipments, potentially restoring normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz within “a few weeks” in a worst-case scenario. The comments underscore the administration’s effort to frame the oil price surge as a temporary market reaction tied to geopolitical risk rather than a lasting supply disruption. — G7 weighs emergency oil reserve releaseFinance ministers consider coordinated action with the International Energy Agency as Gulf conflict pushes crude prices sharply higher Finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations are set to hold an emergency meeting Monday to discuss a potential coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves, according to an exclusive report from the Financial Times. The move is aimed at stabilizing global energy markets after oil prices surged amid escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Officials are considering whether to deploy emergency stockpiles in coordination with the International Energy Agency (IEA) — the mechanism typically used by advanced economies during major supply shocks. A joint release would mirror past responses to crises such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and earlier Gulf supply disruptions, when member countries collectively tapped reserves to offset lost supply and calm markets. The discussions come as benchmark crude prices have surged above $100 per barrel, raising fears of renewed global inflation and increasing pressure on governments to cushion the economic fallout. Energy traders and policymakers are particularly concerned that continued instability in Gulf shipping lanes could restrict exports from some of the world’s largest oil producers. A coordinated drawdown of strategic reserves would be designed to inject additional barrels into the market quickly, signaling to traders that governments are prepared to counter supply disruptions. While no final decision has been announced, officials say the emergency meeting reflects growing concern among major economies that the conflict could trigger a prolonged energy shock if transport routes remain constrained. The debate also underscores broader geopolitical stakes for the G7. Higher oil prices risk complicating monetary policy, raising fuel costs for consumers, and intensifying pressure on governments already managing inflation concerns tied to global supply chain disruptions. — Fertilizer supply fears rise as Iran conflict disrupts energy and shippingStrait of Hormuz disruptions threaten fertilizer trade and natural gas supplies critical to global crop production The war involving Iran is raising concerns about fertilizer supplies, underscoring agriculture’s deep dependence on energy. Roughly half of global food production depends on nitrogen fertilizer. The conflict has disrupted the energy-rich Gulf region and brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a route that carries about one-third of global fertilizer trade — close to a halt. The disruption is occurring just as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere prepare for spring fertilizer applications. Prices were already elevated before the conflict, and growers from the U.S. to Australia are now rushing to secure supplies. Gas shortages tied to the crisis are already affecting production. Indian urea producers have trimmed output, Pakistan has halted gas deliveries to fertilizer plants, and a Polish producer has temporarily stopped taking new orders. Analysts warn the supply squeeze could echo the fertilizer shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which drove up crop prices and global food inflation. Reduced fertilizer use could lower yields and tighten supplies later this year, potentially pushing food prices higher by the end of 2026. — Water becomes a strategic target in Gulf conflictIranian strike on Bahraini desalination plant highlights vulnerability of the region’s drinking water supply An Iranian strike on a desalination facility in Bahrain has underscored a new and potentially dangerous dimension of the escalating Gulf conflict — the vulnerability of the Middle East’s drinking water infrastructure. With much of the region dependent on seawater desalination, analysts warn that attacks on these plants could quickly trigger humanitarian, economic, and political consequences across the Gulf. The strike — which Iranian officials later sought to downplay with an apology to Gulf governments — has raised alarm because desalination plants are essential for daily life across the region. Hundreds of facilities dot the Gulf coastline, supplying drinking water to tens of millions of people and sustaining major urban centers including Dubai, Doha, Manama, and Kuwait City. Unlike many countries with large freshwater resources, Gulf states rely overwhelmingly on desalination. In some countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, more than 80–90% of potable water comes from desalinated seawater. Even short disruptions can quickly strain emergency reserves and force rationing. Strategic leverage. Security analysts say the attack reflects Iran’s effort to impose costs on its Gulf neighbors as the war widens. Even as Tehran’s president apologized diplomatically to regional governments, experts believe the strikes were intended to pressure Gulf states to oppose U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran. “Iran is really going for the jugular,” one scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute said, referring to the targeting of infrastructure critical to daily life and economic stability. Energy infrastructure has already been a frequent target in the conflict, with attacks disrupting oil production in several areas. But desalination plants represent a different category of strategic infrastructure — one that can affect public health and civil stability much faster than oil disruptions. A fragile system. Most desalination plants in the Gulf are located directly on the coastline near power plants or industrial complexes, making them highly exposed to missile or drone attacks. Because desalination requires enormous amounts of electricity, many facilities are integrated with power-generation systems. Damage to one facility can therefore interrupt both electricity and water supplies simultaneously. Countries maintain emergency water storage, but those reserves often cover only a few days to a few weeks of supply. Prolonged disruptions could force governments to import water or implement strict rationing. Broader economic shockwaves. The strike also comes as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. Shipping disruptions and rising insurance costs have already pushed some oil tankers to avoid the waterway — a critical artery through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally flows. Several Gulf countries have begun trimming oil output as logistics become more difficult. Financial markets are reacting quickly to the growing risk of broader infrastructure disruptions. Crude prices on Sunday surged to around $110 per barrel — a scenario intensifying inflation pressures globally and raising fuel costs for consumers. Infrastructure now part of the battlefield. The attack on Bahrain’s desalination system suggests that the conflict may increasingly target infrastructure essential to civilian life — not just military or energy assets. For Gulf governments, the incident is a reminder that water security, long viewed primarily as an environmental or economic issue, is now also a national security concern. Bottom Line: If desalination plants become regular targets in the conflict, analysts warn the result could be a cascading crisis affecting water supply, energy production, shipping routes, and global commodity markets simultaneously. — Trump, Carney discuss trade and Middle East tensionsLeaders pledge to remain in close contact as energy shock and trade issues dominate agenda Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump spoke Sunday in a call that touched on economic conditions, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the state of U.S.–Canada trade relations. According to a statement from Carney’s office, the two leaders discussed the economic fallout from the growing conflict in the Gulf, including the surge in oil prices and the broader implications for global markets. The conversation comes as energy markets have been jolted by supply disruptions tied to the conflict with Iran and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Trade also featured prominently in the discussion, reflecting the deep integration of the North American economy and the ongoing preparations for the upcoming review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement. The leaders discussed maintaining strong bilateral economic ties at a time when supply chains and energy markets are under strain. Carney and Trump agreed to remain in close contact as the geopolitical situation evolves, signaling an effort to maintain coordination between the two neighbors on economic stability, trade policy and security concerns tied to the Middle East conflict. — Trump eyes surprise economic deal with CubaUSA Today exclusive reports the administration exploring sanctions relief and economic openings as part of a potential agreement with Havana The Trump administration is quietly preparing a potential economic agreement with Cuba that could be announced in the near future, according to an exclusive report by USA Today’s Francesca Chambers, citing two sources familiar with the discussions. Details remain unclear, but the prospective arrangement could include easing restrictions on Americans traveling to Havana — a step the president could take without congressional approval. Negotiations are also said to involve potential cooperation on ports, energy, and tourism, along with the possibility of scaling back some U.S. sanctions. The effort comes as the administration recalibrates its approach to Cuba following the dramatic U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and the cutoff of Venezuelan oil shipments that had supported the Cuban economy. Rather than pursuing direct regime change, officials appear to be exploring economic leverage to reshape relations with Havana while advancing U.S. strategic interests in the Western Hemisphere. President Donald Trump confirmed publicly that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been engaged in discussions with Cuban officials. Speaking at the “Shield of the Americas” summit on March 7, Trump said Cuba was “at the end of the line” economically and suggested a deal could be reached easily if Havana cooperates. According to the report, talks have included discussions involving individuals close to former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, including his grandson. The White House has declined to comment on those reports. Former officials familiar with Cuba policy remain skeptical about how close the administration is to a formal agreement. Still, supporters argue Trump now holds leverage that previous administrations did not — particularly after the collapse of Venezuela’s support network for Cuba and the administration’s broader effort to reassert U.S. influence across Latin America. Trump has also indicated that negotiations with Cuba may accelerate once U.S. military operations involving Iran conclude, suggesting the administration views a potential Cuba agreement as the next major geopolitical initiative in the region. — Tariff refund debate: risk of “double dipping” emergesCritics warn companies that passed along tariff costs could profit twice from refunds The issue: As the Trump administration moves to establish a system for refunding billions of dollars in tariff payments following recent court rulings, a new concern is quietly surfacing among economists and policy analysts: whether some companies could effectively collect the same money twice. The U.S. government is preparing a mechanism to return roughly $166 billion in tariff payments to importers after duties imposed under emergency authorities were struck down in court. The refund process — expected to be operational within about 45 days — will allow companies that paid the tariffs to apply for reimbursement through U.S. Customs and Border Protection. But critics say the policy raises a thorny question: what happens if the importer already passed those tariff costs on to customers through higher prices? Tariffs often passed directly to buyers. Multiple economic studies during the last round of tariff disputes found that U.S. importers frequently shifted the full cost of tariffs — and sometimes more — onto downstream buyers. One widely cited analysis from North Dakota State University examined fertilizer markets and concluded that tariff costs were largely incorporated into fertilizer prices, meaning farmers ultimately absorbed the increase rather than importers or distributors. In some cases, the study suggested price increases even exceeded the tariff itself. If companies later receive refunds for those tariffs, critics argue the firms could effectively be paid twice:• First reimbursement: through higher prices charged to customers.• Second reimbursement: through federal tariff refunds. That scenario could apply across multiple sectors — including fertilizer, chemicals, consumer goods, machinery, and electronics — where tariffs were embedded into product pricing during the trade disputes. Fertilizer market cited as a potential example. The fertilizer sector illustrates how the issue could play out. Major firms such as Nutrien and The Mosaic Company were among companies operating in markets where tariff costs affected pricing structures. If tariffs on imported inputs or finished fertilizer products were included in higher selling prices paid by farmers — and those tariffs are now refunded — companies could theoretically receive government reimbursements even though the original cost had already been passed along. Agricultural economists note that fertilizer markets during tariff periods were characterized by tight supply and strong pricing power, which made pass-through of tariff costs relatively straightforward. Limited discussion — so far. Despite the scale of the potential refunds, the “double-dipping” issue has received little public attention so far. Several factors may explain the silence:• Refunds legally go to the importer who paid the tariff, not the downstream purchaser.• Tracking whether tariff costs were passed through prices would be extremely difficult.• The refund process is being treated largely as a technical customs matter, not a broader economic policy debate. However, policy experts say the issue could gain traction once refunds begin flowing — particularly if large corporations receive significant payments. Possible political flashpoint. If Congress or watchdog groups raise the issue, it could quickly become politically sensitive. Lawmakers have previously scrutinized companies that benefited from tariff exemptions or relief programs while also increasing prices. For sectors like agriculture — where farmers paid higher prices for inputs such as fertilizer, chemicals, and equipment during tariff disputes — the optics of suppliers receiving federal refunds could trigger criticism from farm groups and rural lawmakers. For now, though, the refund mechanism appears likely to proceed without any requirement that companies demonstrate whether tariff costs were passed through to customers. Bottom Line: The emerging concern is straightforward: if tariffs were already embedded in market prices, refunding the duties to importers could create a situation where the economic burden stayed with buyers — while the reimbursement goes to the seller. Whether that becomes a broader policy debate may depend on how large the refund claims become — and whether lawmakers begin asking the same question now being raised quietly across trade and agricultural circles. — Airport delays spread as DHS funding lapse disrupts security operationsShutdown-related staffing shortages at TSA checkpoints lead to long wait times at major U.S. airports Travel disruptions intensified across the U.S. on Sunday as a partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) continued to strain airport security operations. Long lines formed at Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints nationwide after DHS funding lapsed in mid-February during a political standoff between Republicans and Democrats over federal immigration reform. Airports in New Orleans, Atlanta, and several other major hubs reported significantly longer security wait times than normal. At Houston’s William P. Hobby Airport, TSA lines stretched to more than three hours Sunday afternoon, according to the agency. Airport officials advised travelers to arrive four to five hours before scheduled departures to avoid missing flights. The delays reflect mounting operational pressures on the TSA during the shutdown. While airport security officers are considered essential workers and must continue reporting to work, the funding lapse has disrupted administrative support, reduced staffing flexibility, and increased absenteeism in some locations — all factors that can slow passenger processing. Airports are also facing seasonal travel pressures, which amplify the impact of any staffing shortages. With spring travel ramping up, security checkpoints are seeing heavier passenger volumes, meaning even small staffing gaps can translate into long lines and cascading delays throughout the system. The situation has added urgency to the broader budget and immigration negotiations in Washington. Until DHS funding is restored, aviation officials warn that security wait times could remain unpredictable, particularly at large airports and during peak travel periods. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
— War markets today: U.S. stock futures dropped about 1%, while Asian equity markets slid sharply — South Korea’s benchmark index plunged 6% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell roughly 5%.
The selloff in global bond markets intensified as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury approached 4.2%, while the dollar strengthened. Investors are increasingly concerned that surging energy prices could reignite inflation while slowing economic growth, heightening fears of a stagflationary environment.
| AG MARKETS |
— JBS labor tensions stir market concerns
Potential strike raises uncertainty for cattle markets as packer leverage debate intensifies
Reports of a potential labor strike at JBS facilities are beginning to weigh on livestock markets, raising concerns among traders and producers about possible disruptions to beef processing capacity. While the situation remains fluid, market participants say the prospect of work stoppages at major plants could tighten near-term slaughter capacity and inject additional volatility into already sensitive cattle markets.
Some analysts suggest the situation could inadvertently benefit packers if it slows slaughter throughput and backs up cattle supplies. Reduced processing capacity often puts downward pressure on cash cattle prices while wholesale beef prices remain firm, widening packer margins. That dynamic has historically been a point of tension between cattle producers and the major meatpacking companies.
JBS is one of the largest beef processors in the United States, meaning even localized labor disruptions can have ripple effects across regional cattle markets and futures trading. Traders note that uncertainty surrounding plant operations often prompts speculative selling in cattle futures while beef buyers move to secure supply.
For producers, the episode underscores broader structural concerns about concentration in the packing sector — a recurring issue in congressional debates over livestock market competition and processing capacity. If strike threats escalate into actual shutdowns, analysts say the immediate market reaction would likely center on cash cattle prices, boxed beef values, and short-term slaughter volumes.
— Philippines surpasses China as Brazil’s largest pork export market
Strong Philippine import demand — driven by African swine fever losses — reshapes global pork trade flows
The Philippines overtook China in 2025 as the largest buyer of Brazilian pork, highlighting a shift in global pork trade as China’s domestic production recovers while Southeast Asian demand surges.
According to data from USDA, Brazil exported 433,595 metric tons (MT) of pork products to the Philippines in 2025 on a carcass-weight equivalent basis. That represented 25.3% of Brazil’s total pork exports, up sharply from 18.09% the previous year, allowing the Philippines to move ahead of China as Brazil’s top destination.
China, once Brazil’s dominant market, imported about 175,600 MT of Brazilian pork in 2025 — roughly 10.2% of Brazil’s export volume. USDA notes that China’s purchases have been declining as the country rebuilds its domestic hog herd following the severe African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks that devastated production earlier in the decade.
The situation in the Philippines is the opposite. The country continues to rely heavily on imports as its hog sector struggles to recover from ASF. Philippine hog inventory reached 8.79 million head in 2025, only slightly above the 8.75 million recorded in 2024, and still far below the pre-ASF herd of roughly 14 million head before the disease first struck in 2019.
With domestic supplies tight, pork imports surged. The Philippines imported 851,760 MT of pork in 2025, a 16% increase from the previous year. Brazil has been a key supplier, shipping about 34,473 MT in January 2026 alone, accounting for roughly 46% of Philippine pork imports that month.
Brazil’s role as a major exporter is supported by its long-standing ASF-free status, which has allowed it to expand access to markets affected by the disease. USDA projects Brazil’s pork exports will rise about 7% in 2026 to 1.83 million MT, driven largely by continued demand from the Philippines and other import-dependent markets.
The shift underscores a broader rebalancing of global pork trade: China’s declining import needs and Southeast Asia’s growing supply deficits are reshaping export flows, with Brazil emerging as a key beneficiary.
— Indonesia considers B50 biodiesel mandate as oil prices surge
Jakarta weighs accelerating palm-oil biofuel policy as Middle East conflict drives crude above $100
Indonesia is considering reviving plans to launch a B50 biodiesel mandate — a fuel blend containing 50% palm-oil-based biodiesel and 50% conventional diesel — as rising crude oil prices reshape the country’s energy outlook.
Deputy Energy Minister Yuliot Tanjung said over the weekend that officials are reviewing whether to implement the policy later this year, after earlier shelving the plan due to technical and funding concerns. Indonesia had instead committed to maintaining a B40 blend through 2026.
The reassessment comes as global oil prices surged above $100 per barrel amid the conflict in the Middle East, raising the appeal of domestically produced biofuels.
Indonesia — the world’s largest palm oil producer — is now evaluating two scenarios: keeping the B40 mandate in place or accelerating the transition to B50 as early as the second half of 2026, or possibly sooner, Tanjung said. Final decisions will be made by the government’s biodiesel steering committee led by chief economic minister Airlangga Hartarto.
The policy carries significant implications for global agricultural markets. Indonesia’s biodiesel mandates divert large volumes of palm oil toward domestic fuel production, tightening export supplies and often pushing global palm oil prices higher.
Officials say the government is closely monitoring market conditions. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa indicated Jakarta may increase fuel subsidy allocations to cushion the impact of higher oil prices, while Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia signaled the government could accelerate broader biofuel programs, including ethanol blending requirements.
The discussion highlights how the energy shock tied to the Iran conflict is spilling into agricultural commodity markets, reinforcing demand for vegetable oils used in biofuel production.
— Brazilian chicken exports adjust to Hormuz closure
Exporters scramble for new shipping routes to keep poultry flowing to Middle Eastern markets amid war-driven disruption
Brazilian poultry exporters are rapidly rerouting shipments to the Middle East after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted a key maritime corridor used to supply the region, according to Brazil’s poultry industry group.
Alternatives. Ricardo Santin, president of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), said exporters are working with shipping companies to establish alternative sea and land routes to maintain deliveries to more than a dozen Middle Eastern markets that rely heavily on Brazilian poultry.
The Middle East represents a critical destination for Brazil’s chicken industry. Roughly 30% of Brazil’s poultry exports go to the region, and Brazil supplies more than half of Saudi Arabia’s imported chicken and about 74% of imports to the United Arab Emirates, according to ABPA.
Alternative routes emerging. Exporters are now exploring several new logistics options to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint:
• Bab al-Mandab route: Ships can reach Saudi Arabia and Jordan via the Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and Djibouti, entering the Red Sea and accessing Saudi ports from the west.
• Salalah, Oman: Cargo bound for the UAE can be shipped to the Omani port of Salalah and then transported overland to Dubai.
• Khorfakkan, UAE: Another emerging option involves delivering cargo to the UAE’s east-coast port of Khorfakkan before approaching the Gulf region.
Santin said the situation has evolved quickly as shipping operators adapt. “Two days ago we didn’t even have access to the Red Sea, and now we do,” he noted, suggesting logistical flexibility is improving despite the conflict.
Supply chain impact limited so far. Despite the disruption, Brazil’s poultry sector has not yet slowed slaughter rates or breeder placements, indicating exporters expect trade flows to continue.
Domestic prices in Brazil have also remained stable. The Middle East imports 100,000 to 120,000 metric tons of Brazilian chicken per month, roughly 15% of Brazil’s production, compared with 900,000 tons consumed domestically each month.
Because the export share is relatively small compared with domestic demand, Santin said redirecting shipments back to Brazil would likely have limited immediate price effects. However, a prolonged closure of Hormuz could eventually pressure prices lower if exports remain disrupted.
Government assistance requested. To help exporters adapt, ABPA has asked Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry to allow changes to export documentation so shipments can be delivered to alternative ports rather than the originally designated destinations. Santin said the ministry indicated it would “facilitate whatever is possible” to keep trade flowing, though no formal directive has yet been issued.
For global agricultural markets, the episode highlights how the war-related disruption in the Persian Gulf is beginning to ripple beyond oil — affecting food trade routes and protein supply chains that depend heavily on Middle Eastern import demand.
| USDA CORN ESTIMATES |
— Corn growers question USDA data after price whiplash
Farm group urges investigation into NASS reporting as futures recover to pre-report levels
Corn producers are pressing the Trump administration and Congress to scrutinize USDA crop reporting after a sharp market reaction to the agency’s January supply estimates — a move that farm groups say undermined confidence in federal data.
The Iowa Corn Growers Association (ICGA) told U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins it wants to work with USDA and lawmakers to review what it calls “flawed reporting” from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
In a letter to Rollins, ICGA President Mark Mueller said the January NASS report unexpectedly raised both 2025 corn acreage and yield estimates, triggering a steep sell-off in futures markets that “plummeted prices to the point of no return.”
Why the criticism is surfacing now. The complaint is gaining traction partly because corn prices have since rebounded to roughly the same levels seen before that January report. That dynamic is fueling the argument from some producers that the market reaction — and the USDA numbers that triggered it — may have overstated supplies. For farmers who marketed grain during the sell-off, the price recovery only sharpens the frustration.
Several factors likely explain the rebound:
• Weather and geopolitical risk premiums — including the current Middle East conflict and energy price surge — have supported grain markets broadly.
• Biofuel demand expectations, particularly for ethanol and vegetable-oil-linked fuels, have lifted feedstock prices.
• Export demand volatility and logistics disruptions in global shipping lanes have also tightened perceived supply.
In other words, markets may have re-priced risk that the January balance sheet didn’t fully capture.
A long-running tension between markets and NASS. The criticism is not unprecedented. NASS estimates — particularly January final production and acreage revisions — often generate sharp market moves because they lock in the government’s official production estimate for the crop year.
Historically:
• NASS relies on farmer surveys, satellite imagery, and statistical modeling.
• Markets sometimes react strongly when the agency changes acreage or yield assumptions late in the marketing year.
• Farmers frequently argue that survey response rates and modeling assumptions can misrepresent actual planted area or yields.
But despite periodic criticism, USDA data remains the global benchmark for grain supply estimates, and futures markets rely heavily on those numbers.
Political and policy implications. The ICGA request could resonate on Capitol Hill, particularly among farm-state lawmakers already focused on the financial stress facing producers. A review of NASS methodology could become part of broader farm policy discussions, especially as Congress debates:
• additional farm financial assistance,
• crop insurance and risk-management reforms, and
• improvements in agricultural data transparency.
For now, the market’s recovery has intensified the debate: if prices have climbed back to pre-report levels, some farmers argue the January estimates may have overstated supply — or at least triggered an exaggerated market response. That question — whether the issue lies with the USDA data or the market’s reaction — is likely to remain a point of contention as producers push for closer scrutiny of federal crop reporting.
USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden comments on crop estimates During our interview late Friday with USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden, here is what he said on various angles of this topic: USDA data modernization and public input Question: Where does the USDA data modernization process stand? Vaden: “Currently we have an open request for information. Secretary Rollins announced that at her speech at the Ag Outlook Forum. We’re asking, I think it goes at least till the end of March, maybe into early April, for anyone who has an opinion, about the quality of USDA data, how we collect it, how we could collect it and calculate it even better, or wants to provide information to us about how they use USDA data.” “On April 22, we’re going to have our annual data users meeting in Kansas City, Missouri.” “We’re going to publish a written report that looks at the estimates that we made throughout the year, compare them to other private sector forecasters, and compare them to what the final numbers actually ended up being.” “This is not going to be a one-time thing. This is going to be an annual report that we’re going to do. This is going to be a process that doesn’t repair itself overnight. This is going to be an iterative process like any scientific endeavor. But the ultimate goal is each set of data is better than the last.” “We cannot merely be an agency that puts numbers out there and then hides ourselves behind a brick wall. We’ve got to be involved in having a dialogue because that’s the only way people will trust our numbers and our numbers will get even better.” Survey timing and moving to digital collection Question: Farmers say some large NASS surveys arrive with too little time. Vaden: “I was recently in St. Louis, Missouri. And as part of my visit there, I visited the National Agricultural Statistical Services facility where they mail out those surveys.” “One of the things they have shared with me is as our mail service has slowed down, that has affected their timelines in terms of getting these surveys to people with a long enough lead window.” “But this is also why our department is focused on moving as much of what we do as possible to the digital realm, dragging us into the 21st Century where more surveys will be conducted over the internet rather than over the mail service, which will help to eliminate this problem.” Defense of USDA statisticians Question: What is your message about USDA economists and statisticians? Vaden: “I remind them what the job of our economists is. And their job is not to be popular. It’s to tell the truth. And it’s to tell the truth when it’s good news, and it’s to tell the truth when it’s not what we want to hear.” “If the report ends up being correct, even though it’s disappointing to farmers in the market, then they have done their job and we should applaud them because that is their only job, to get it right, whether the information is good or bad for the market price.” |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
— Monday: Oil shock: crude prices spike as Gulf War disrupts global supply
Strait of Hormuz closure, refinery outages and production cuts send Brent and WTI briefly near $120 a barrel
Global oil prices surged sharply Monday as the expanding U.S.–Israeli war with Iran disrupted supplies across the Gulf and raised fears of prolonged shipping blockages through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures jumped as much as 14% in volatile trading, briefly touching $119.50 per barrel, the highest level since mid-2022.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also spiked, hitting $119.48 per barrel before easing.
By mid-session, Brent was trading around $105.71, up $13.02, while WTI was near $103.06, up $12.16.
The price surge comes after an already dramatic rally last week, when Brent gained 28% and WTI climbed 36% as fighting intensified in the Middle East.
A key driver is the near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments normally pass. Tanker traffic has slowed dramatically amid security concerns, while infrastructure attacks and refinery shutdowns are tightening supplies.
Production disruptions are mounting across the region:
• Iraq — Output from major southern oilfields has reportedly fallen about 70% as storage facilities fill up.
• Kuwait — Kuwait Petroleum Corp. declared force majeure on shipments and began cutting production.
• Saudi Arabia — The kingdom shut its largest refinery and has offered more than 4 million barrels of crude in unusual spot tenders as export routes clog.
• Qatar — Liquefied natural gas production has halted after infrastructure attacks.
• Bahrain — BAPCO declared force majeure following a strike on its refinery complex.
Energy infrastructure has also come under direct threat. The United Arab Emirates reported a fire in the Fujairah oil zone after falling debris, while Saudi Arabia said it intercepted a drone heading toward the Shaybah oilfield.
Markets were further unsettled by political developments in Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei was named successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, reinforcing expectations that hard-line leadership will continue the confrontation.
The price spike is already filtering into consumer fuel markets. U.S. gasoline futures surged to about $3.22 per gallon, their highest level since 2022, raising concerns about inflation just months before U.S. midterm elections.
Governments are weighing emergency responses. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called on the Trump administration to release oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while a French official said G7 nations will discuss a coordinated reserve release to stabilize markets.
Even if fighting subsides quickly, analysts warn that damaged facilities, disrupted shipping and heightened security risks could keep global energy prices elevated for weeks or months.
| CONGRESS |
— Senate in session as House Republicans gather for Doral retreat
Trump address, reconciliation plans headline GOP Strategy meeting
Congress enters the week with the Senate in session while the House remains out, as House Republicans convene in Doral, Fla., for their annual legislative retreat at Trump National Doral.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to address GOP lawmakers Monday evening in the Donald J. Trump Ballroom at the resort, underscoring the close alignment between House Republican leadership and the White House as lawmakers shape their legislative agenda.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is hosting the retreat, which will feature appearances by conservative commentators Scott Jennings and Ben Shapiro, along with senior administration and political advisers. White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair and Trump political strategist Chris LaCivita are expected to speak, as is National Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett.
A central focus of the gathering will be early planning for what Republicans are informally calling “Reconciliation 2.0” — a potential second budget reconciliation package aimed at advancing additional GOP priorities. House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) is slated to outline possible spending reductions, including proposals targeting what Republicans describe as government “waste, fraud and abuse.”
The retreat is expected to serve as an initial forum for GOP leaders to gauge support among members and begin building consensus around the scope and policy priorities of a second reconciliation effort later this year.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Widespread showers and thunderstorms with a severe weather and flash flood risk expected across the Midwest and central/southern Plains Tuesday… …Continued active pattern for the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies will bring lower elevation coastal/valley rain and heavy high elevation snow… …Well above average temperatures across most of the country will continue into the first half of the week with daily record-tying/breaking highs possible.
