OPEC+: One Modest Production Increase in December Before Pausing for 1Q 2026
Will White House fact sheet on Trump/Xi agreements temper ag sector naysayers?
Link: Weekend Updates, Oct. 25: Trump to Offer Concessions to China
Link: Calls Mount to Bring Back USDA’s Daily Export Sales “Flash” When Warranted
Link: USDA to Release Key Data in November, Including Crop Production, WASDE
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 31
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 31
TOP STORIES:
— OPEC+ hits pause amid supply glut fears
— Will White House fact sheet on Trump/Xi agreements convince traders and analysts?
— FT: “Surprising gains: A closer look at the economic benefits of President Donald
Trump’s second term”
— China’s oil stockpile strategy shields it from U.S. sanctions shock
— Trump weighs historic Supreme Court appearance as Justices take up tariff case
— NBC poll: Public largely blames Trump and GOP for prolonged shutdown
— Newsom accuses Trump of ‘rigging the game,’ predicts California’s Prop 50 will pass
— U.S. potato growers frustrated as Japan talks stall on market access
WASHINGTON FOCUS
— Senate in session; House still out amid deepening shutdown impacts
— Rollins warns SNAP funds fall short amid shutdown, as courts compel payments
— Bessent rebukes Klobuchar and Warren, touts new China trade deals
— DOJ warns Supreme Court: striking Trump’s tariffs would cripple trade power
— Trump looms over Tuesday’s elections even when not on the ballot
OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS
— Key trade and Fed-related hearings:
— Multiple Fed governors and presidents speaking through the week
— Energy and fertilizer focus: OPEC+ pause, energy conferences
ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS (NOV. 3–7)
— PMI, ISM, Construction Spending (Mon)
— Motor Vehicle Sales, Trade, Factory Orders, JOLTS (Tue)
— ADP Employment, PMI, ISM (Wed)
— Jobless Claims, Productivity, Wholesale Trade (Thu)
— Employment, Consumer Sentiment, Credit (Fri)
(Some U.S. reports may not be released due to gov’t shutdown)
USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG EVENTS
— USDA export inspections; FAO food price index; Singapore Agri-Food Innovation Summit
— Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (Kuala Lumpur); major ag earnings from ADM, Bunge, Nutrien
KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS
— OPEC+ output freeze through March
— Saudi Aramco, BP, ConocoPhillips earnings
— ADIPEC conference, COP30 climate summit in Brazil
The Week Ahead: Nov. 2, 2025
Up Front— OPEC+ pauses amid glut fears Producers agreed to one final 137,000-barrel-per-day hike for December, then freeze output through March as prices sink below $65 and inventories climb. The pause reflects weaker demand and mounting global oversupply concerns.— White House fact sheet confirms China tariff rollback, ag pledges Beijing will lift retaliatory tariffs on U.S. farm goods — including soybeans, sorghum, corn, pork, beef, and dairy — and resume purchases of sorghum and hardwood logs, signaling commitment to Trump/Xi trade pledges.— FT: Economic upsides of Trump’s second term The Financial Times argues Trump’s policies have yielded unexpected benefits: a weaker dollar aiding exports, revived domestic manufacturing, and enhanced U.S. economic resilience through reshoring and supply-chain autonomy.— China’s oil stockpiling shields it from sanctions shock Beijing’s imports above 11 million bpd are fueling a massive reserve buildup to buffer against U.S. sanctions and global disruptions. Analysts say the stockpile is propping up oil prices despite oversupply.— Trump may attend Supreme Court tariff hearing No sitting president has ever done so. The Nov. 5 case could determine whether Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs under emergency powers stand—or trigger billions in refund claims.— NBC poll: Voters blame GOP for shutdown A new survey finds most Americans fault President Trump and Republicans for the 33-day government shutdown, though both parties remain entrenched as SNAP funding and court orders intensify pressure.— Newsom says Trump ‘rigging the game’ On Meet the Press, California Gov. Gavin Newsom predicted voters will pass Prop 50 to allow partisan redistricting, calling it Democrats’ answer to Trump-backed mid-decade map changes in GOP states.— U.S. potato growers frustrated after Japan talks stall Despite Trump’s Tokyo visit, Japan offered no new market access for U.S. potatoes. Industry leaders hope the White House will use tariff leverage to break the impasse.— DOJ warns SCOTUS: Don’t ‘disarm’ Trump’s tariff powers Ahead of Wednesday’s arguments, Justice Dept. lawyers told the Court a ruling against Trump’s emergency tariffs could “upend” trade policy and weaken presidential authority in foreign affairs.— Trump looms over Tuesday’s elections Though abroad, Trump’s influence dominates races in New Jersey, Virginia, and California—seen as early tests of his post-2024 coalition and political staying power.— Rollins: SNAP reserves cover less than half of November benefits The USDA secretary says courts have ordered continued SNAP payments despite the shutdown, as the agency investigates widespread misuse and weighs emergency reforms.— Bessent rebukes Klobuchar and Warren Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended Trump’s Asia trade gains and new China soybean deal, calling Democratic senators’ shutdown criticisms “incoherent” and urging Congress to reopen government.— List of key hearings and economic ag and energy releases and events this week.Top Stories: — OPEC+ hits pause amid supply glut fearsProducers agree to one final 137,000-barrel December increase before freezing output through March OPEC+ decided to make one last modest production increase in December before pausing further hikes for the first quarter of 2026, reflecting rising concerns that global oil markets are slipping into oversupply. Following a Sunday videoconference, the 22-nation alliance — led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — agreed to restore about 137,000 barrels per day next month, matching earlier hikes in October and November. But the group will halt additional output boosts from January through March to account for weaker seasonal demand and growing inventories. The move comes as Brent crude prices, down roughly 13% this year to below $65 per barrel, face renewed downward pressure. Analysts at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs now predict prices could slide below $60 as world oil supplies exceed demand by as much as 3 million barrels a day this quarter, according to the International Energy Agency. The meeting also unfolded amid geopolitical tension. The U.S. recently sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil producers, adding uncertainty to OPEC+’s calculations. Meanwhile, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is set to visit Washington later this month for talks with President Donald Trump, who has urged OPEC to bring fuel prices lower. Though OPEC+ insists its output revival this year was based on “healthy market fundamentals,” signs of a glut are mounting as demand in China softens and North and South American supply surges. Trading houses such as Trafigura now say excess oil is piling up on tankers worldwide. The production pause also underscores the strain on Saudi Arabia’s finances. The kingdom’s budget deficit widened in the third quarter, forcing spending cuts on its high-profile Neom project. The full OPEC+ alliance will reconvene Nov. 30 to reassess policy for 2026. — Will White House fact sheet on Trump/Xi agreements convince the naysayers among traders and analysts?Explicit commitments on soybeans, sorghum, and hardwood logs mark the clearest signal yet that Beijing intends to follow through on its purchase promises We previously reported that the White House on Saturday released a fact sheet (link) that said Beijing will lift retaliatory tariffs it imposed in March, including those “on a vast swath of U.S. agricultural products,” the fact sheet says, listing chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. The removal of the retaliatory tariffs will help make U.S. farm products competitive. Sorghum producers finally get their wish: recognition. Besides the soybean purchase commitments – which are for at least 12 million metric tons in the remainder of 2025 and 25 million MT each of the next three calendar years —“China will resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and hardwood logs,” according to the fact sheet. In print, finally, so maybe some Midwest-centric traders, analysts, commentators and general farm media will know there are other commodities in the China loop. — FT: “Surprising gains: A closer look at the economic benefits of President Donald Trump’s second term”Despite dominant narratives of risk and disruption, there are measurable domestic and international economic upside elements to the new policy regime, according to the Financial Times In a recent opinion piece titled “The economic upsides of Trump’s second term —For all the focus on harms, the U.S. president has generated benefits at home and abroad,” the Financial Times outlines several less-covered positive economic effects of President Trump’s second term. Key points: 1. Weaker dollar as global growth tailwind One of the advantages cited: “A weaker dollar tends to be good for global growth, particularly emerging markets.” Implication: With the U.S. dollar softer, U.S. exports become more competitive, and many emerging-market economies benefit from improved terms of trade and external demand. Note: While this is framed as a benefit abroad, it can also assist U.S. firms with sizable export operations (or global supply chains) and may help U.S. domestic growth via international spill-in. 2. Domestic manufacturing / reshoring incentives The article points to the president’s emphasis on manufacturing revival and on creating incentives for onshore production. From this perspective, policies embedded in the second term — tariffs, investment incentives, tax breaks for domestic capital — are seen as generating “benefits” by re-anchoring manufacturing and strengthening industrial capacity. There are trade/tariff dynamics: although the piece doesn’t deploy data-rich tables, it highlights this industrial axis. Implication: For sectors tied to domestic production (e.g., semiconductors, critical minerals, advanced manufacturing), this policy tilt offers upside. This links to the broader story of tariff-driven inflation risk and supply-side shifts. 3. Increased U.S. economic security / strategic autonomy The piece argues that by prioritizing onshoring and reducing dependence on foreign supply chains (especially from geo-strategic rivals), the U.S. is enhancing its economic security. This reframes what might be seen as protectionism into “economic opportunity” and “resilience building.” Implication: This is a critical nexus — where foreign-policy and economic-policy converge under Trump’s second term. 4. Global middle-income economy benefits Beyond the U.S., the FT notes that emerging-market and middle-income countries may gain from a weaker dollar, improved export competitiveness, and U.S. re-balancing of trade flows. This suggests that the second-term economic agenda, though U.S.-centric, has outward benefits. Implication: How U.S. policy spillovers impact global growth and trade. 5. Caveats and balance While the article is focused on “upsides,” it implicitly recognizes that these gains exist alongside substantial risks (inflation, fiscal deficits, trade tension). It doesn’t ignore these but chooses to highlight the often-underappreciated benefits. For example, a weaker dollar can boost inflationary pressures in the U.S.; manufacturing revival depends on sufficient investment and workforce adaptation; export-led gains abroad may trigger backlash or retaliation from trading partners. — China’s oil stockpile strategy shields it from U.S. sanctions shockMassive crude imports and reserve buildup give Beijing a cushion against energy disruptions and price volatility China is racing to fill its oil tanks — and it’s doing so at a scale that dwarfs even Saudi Arabia’s production. According to the Wall Street Journal, the country imported over 11 million barrels of oil per day during the first nine months of 2025, far exceeding its domestic demand and signaling a concerted effort to stockpile energy ahead of mounting geopolitical risks. Analysts estimate that 1 million to 1.2 million barrels daily are being diverted into storage, bolstering China’s strategic reserves as Washington tightens sanctions on Russian crude. “China’s current strategic petroleum reserve and commercial stocks already provide a meaningful buffer against short-term supply disruptions,” said Kelly Xu, an energy strategist at Alpine Macro, who expects the stockpiling to continue well into 2026. Building a shield against sanctions. The accelerated reserve buildup — spurred by cheap oil and fears of Russian output disruptions from Ukrainian attacks — underscores Beijing’s push for energy independence. President Xi Jinping has long framed energy security as a national imperative, declaring that “the energy rice bowl must be held in our own hands.” China imports roughly 70% of the oil it consumes, and its reserve buildup reflects a desire to insulate itself from global shocks and U.S.-led financial sanctions. Despite American measures targeting Russian giants Rosneft and Lukoil, few expect Chinese refineries to cut purchases of Russian crude, most of which are already denominated in yuan rather than dollars. “If China really stops buying, the path toward low $50 [per barrel] would be very quick,” said Michael Haigh of Société Générale, highlighting China’s role in preventing an oil price collapse. A tale of two reserves. While China’s strategic and commercial oil reserves are estimated to total 1.2 to 1.3 billion barrels, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains at its lowest level in four decades after former President Joe Biden raided the reserve to temper oil prices. Despite promising to refill America’s reserves “to the top,” President Donald Trump has so far authorized only a small purchase. China, meanwhile, continues expanding capacity. Rystad Energy analyst Lin Ye estimates that China’s total storage reached just over 2 billion barrels by end-2024, up from 1.4 billion in 2015, with another 124 million barrels of capacity to be added by year’s end. Market implications. The Journal reports that China’s buying spree has quietly stabilized global oil prices, keeping Brent crude near $65 a barrel, down 13% this year but still above what would be expected amid a global glut. The International Energy Agency forecasts an oversupply of nearly 3.7 million barrels per day this quarter, driven partly by OPEC+ production increases. For Beijing, the stockpile serves both as a buffer and as leverage in an uncertain global energy landscape — ensuring that any future sanctions or market shocks will hit less hard at home. — Trump weighs historic Supreme Court appearance as Justices take up tariff caseNo sitting president has ever attended oral arguments at the high court; a ruling against Trump could open the door to billions in tariff refunds If President Donald Trump shows up at the U.S. Supreme Court on Nov. 5, it would mark a first in American history. Reports note that no sitting president has ever attended oral arguments at the high court in its 235-year existence. Trump has said he feels an “obligation” to be present when justices on Nov. 5 hear arguments over whether his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs — imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — exceeded presidential authority. (More on this below and in Weekend Updates (link). The president is slated to address the America Business Forum in Miami that same day, leaving it unclear whether he will make the trip to Washington. Historically, other presidents have addressed or appeared before the Court, but never while in office. Richard Nixon, for instance, spoke in 1969 during the transition between Chief Justices Earl Warren and Warren Burger. Trump has previously attended the investitures of his nominees, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. Meanwhile, the stakes of the case are enormous. If the Court rules against Trump, it could render large portions of his tariff regime illegal, triggering a wave of refund claims from companies that paid millions in levies. Such a decision could also unleash a cascade of global disputes as suppliers, customers, and tax authorities battle over who deserves repayment. — NBC poll: Public largely blames Trump and GOP for prolonged shutdownMajority of voters fault Republicans as both sides dig in on Day 33 Blame game. An NBC News poll (link) — echoing findings from a recent Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey — shows that more Americans blame President Trump and the Republican Party for the ongoing government shutdown than they do Democrats.  NBC reports that the groups most likely to fault Trump and Republicans include self-described liberals, young voters, urban residents, Black voters, and those with higher education levels. Meanwhile, those more inclined to blame Democrats are self-identified MAGA supporters, white men, and rural and older voters. But… Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, told NBC: “Each party could look at this data and say, ‘Let’s not blink.’” — Newsom accuses Trump of ‘rigging the game,’ predicts California’s Prop 50 will passGovernor tells Meet the Press that Democrats must “fight fire with fire” as redistricting battles spread nationwide California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said he’s “deeply confident” that state voters will approve Proposition 50 — a ballot measure allowing partisan redistricting — arguing that Democrats must adapt to what he called a new political reality shaped by President Trump’s aggressive mid-decade redistricting push in GOP-led states. In a wide-ranging Meet the Press interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker, Newsom accused Trump of “rigging” next year’s congressional elections by promoting redistricting in Republican-controlled states such as Texas and Indiana. “He’s changing the rules. He’s rigging the game because he knows he’ll lose if all things are equal,” Newsom said. “He did not expect California to fight fire with fire.” Prop 50 and the redistricting fight. Proposition 50, which goes before voters this week, would allow California to redraw its congressional maps before the 2026 midterms — mirroring GOP efforts that could net Republicans several new House seats. Newsom has cast the measure as a necessary response to Trump’s tactics. “We have to change if we want things to change,” he told Meet the Press, calling the initiative part of a broader Democratic “communication shift” to match the political environment. Former Vice President Kamala Harris also endorsed Prop 50, writing on X that she voted yes “because we cannot let anyone silence the will of the people.” Clashes with Trump and the courts. Newsom described the Trump administration as an existential challenge to democratic norms, pointing to California’s successful court challenges against Trump’s deployment of federal troops during protests. “I’m holding hope that there’s one coequal branch of government left — the judiciary,” he said, adding that “Trump is not screwing around.” The governor also criticized Congress and the Supreme Court for what he called complicity with Trump’s agenda. “Speaker [Mike] Johnson (R-La.) has no interest in oversight,” Newsom said. “You’ve got courts that are increasingly indulgent, particularly on the emergency docket.” Democratic momentum and 2026 outlook. Despite recent losses, Newsom said he believes Democrats are regaining their footing ahead of the 2026 midterms. “Four months ago, I would have struggled to find positive signs,” he said. “Now I feel like we’re on the precipice of a remarkable moment.” He praised congressional leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, both Democrats from New York, for uniting the party around key issues such as health care. If Democrats retake the House, Newsom said, it would effectively end “the Trump presidency as we know it.” With subpoena power and control of committees, he argued, “we’ll finally have a coequal branch of government.” (See item on Tuesday’s elections, below.) 2028 ambitions. Asked about his own presidential aspirations, Newsom said he is focused on “fair and free elections” and dismissed speculation about a 2028 run — though he acknowledged he “would be lying otherwise” if he claimed total disinterest. “I’m focused on Prop 50,” he said. “To the extent the future aligns and the moment presents itself — we’ll see what happens.” Harris, meanwhile, has hinted that she may seek the presidency again, telling the BBC, “I am not done.” Newsom, while downplaying tension between them, said of Harris: “I’ve known Kamala all my life. The last person she needs to reach out to is me.” — U.S. potato growers frustrated as Japan talks stall on market accessDespite President Trump’s visit to Tokyo, no breakthrough emerged on long-sought access for U.S. fresh potatoes — though industry leaders say the door may not be fully closed U.S. potato growers were left disheartened after President Donald Trump’s recent visit to Japan ended without progress on opening the Japanese market to U.S. fresh potatoes — a goal the industry has pursued for decades. The meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi yielded no mention of potatoes in post-summit statements, leaving many questioning the fate of a trade framework announced earlier this year. National Potato Council (NPC) CEO Kam Quarles said Friday that it remains unclear whether the U.S./Japan agreement finalized in July is “entirely closed.” The industry had hoped the president would use tariff leverage to pressure Japan into resolving what U.S. officials and growers view as unnecessary barriers to trade. “It is very disappointing that the U.S. was unable to use President Trump’s tariff leverage to push past Japan’s protectionism,” Quarles said. The U.S. potato industry estimates the Japanese market could be worth $150 million annually. Quarles criticized Tokyo for “negotiating with the intent not to conclude negotiations,” while Japan insists its technical review process is science-based. Idaho Gov. Brad Little (R), a close ally of Trump, personally appealed to the president before the trip, urging him to make the issue a priority. As previously noted (link), lawmakers from potato-producing states, including Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), raised the omission during a Senate Finance Committee hearing. Cantwell pressed USTR nominee Julie Callahan on the lack of progress. Callahan, who currently oversees agricultural affairs at USTR, said she is “committed” to addressing Japan’s “unjustified non-tariff barriers,” calling the potato dispute a personal priority. Quarles welcomed her remarks as a “bright spot,” arguing the matter could be resolved quickly if it receives White House attention. “When the president wants to achieve a goal, he’s pretty creative in using leverage to achieve that goal,” he said. |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
— The Senate is in this week (but the House is not, again.) Consumers are finally feeling the impacts of the lengthy gov’t shutdown, and following Tuesday elections, odds increase that a way will be found to end the shutdown impasse.
— Rollins warns SNAP funds fall short amid gov’t shutdown
USDA chief says contingency reserves cover less than half of November benefits, as courts order Trump administration to keep payments flowing
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins warned Sunday that the agency’s contingency fund “won’t even cover about half” of November’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) costs, underscoring the deepening strain of the government shutdown now in its second month. Speaking on Fox & Friends, Rollins said President Trump has directed USDA to “do everything we can to make sure that we can keep these benefits going,” but acknowledged that the agency is “working and looking at all angles right now.”
Her remarks came just days after two federal courts — in Massachusetts and Rhode Island — ordered the Trump administration to continue paying SNAP benefits despite the lapse in appropriations. Judges in both cases ruled that USDA must use available contingency funds and other legally authorized reserves to prevent disruption to the roughly 42 million Americans who rely on the program. The Rhode Island court issued a nationwide temporary restraining order requiring USDA to make full or partial payments by early November, rejecting the government’s claim that it lacked the legal authority to do so during a shutdown.
In its ruling, the Massachusetts court said USDA “cannot arbitrarily withhold food assistance when existing reserve funds are available,” and suggested the agency could draw from the $23 billion “Section 32” fund in addition to its $5 billion contingency pool. Several states, led by their attorneys general, had sued to force the administration to act, arguing that failure to pay benefits would violate federal law and cause “irreparable harm” to low-income families.
The White House, while acknowledging the court orders, said it continues to seek legal clarity on how SNAP can be funded without new appropriations. “The President wants to ensure that every eligible family continues to receive food assistance,” a senior administration official said, while accusing Democrats in Congress of “refusing to fund essential programs.” USDA told the courts it would comply with the rulings but reserved the right to appeal or seek further guidance.
Rollins also revealed that 29 states have complied with her request to share data on SNAP recipients — data that, she said, uncovered widespread misuse of electronic benefit transfer (EBT) cards. “We have found thousands and thousands of illegal uses of the EBT card,” she said, adding that since Trump took office, USDA has removed nearly 700,000 people from SNAP, made 118 arrests, identified one person collecting benefits in six different states, and discovered about 5,000 deceased individuals still receiving benefits.
“It is time to drastically reform this program,” Rollins said, emphasizing that the administration is pursuing both integrity enforcement and emergency funding measures at once. With court orders now compelling USDA to disburse benefits, officials are preparing a compliance plan due Monday that outlines how states will receive funds — a stopgap effort as political and legal battles over SNAP’s future continue.
— Bessent rebukes Klobuchar and Warren amid shutdown clash, defends Trump’s Asia trade wins
Treasury Secretary calls senators’ letters “incoherent,” urges Democrats to reopen the government as White House touts new China soybean deal
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent lashed out at Democratic Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), dismissing their criticisms as “incoherent letters” and accusing them of ignoring their responsibility to end the 30-day government shutdown. The exchange followed President Donald Trump’s return from a high-stakes Asia trip that yielded major trade agreements with China, South Korea, and other regional partners.
Bessent, speaking to Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo, said China had agreed to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans “during this season,” with a target of at least 25 million metric tons annually over the next three years. He framed the deal as a major win for American farmers, rejecting claims that the administration was prioritizing foreign interests.
The senators’ letter accused Bessent of neglecting domestic agriculture as China temporarily scaled back soybean imports during tariff talks. In response, Bessent fired back on social media, posting a photo of Trump during his Asia meetings and declaring that “real leadership” was delivering results for U.S. producers.
He further criticized Democrats for refusing to support a “clean” Continuing Resolution to reopen the government, calling the impasse a “Schumer Shutdown.” Bessent warned that keeping the government closed into Thanksgiving week would “disrupt American families’ travel” and “shame” those responsible.
When Sen. Klobuchar attempted to mock Bessent online, questioning the authenticity of his account and joking about his jet lag, the Treasury chief replied that Democrats should focus on fiscal responsibility. He also noted that the U.S./Argentina economic bridge project had turned a profit for taxpayers, adding that “profit is a concept some in the Senate might not recognize after years of Biden-era mismanagement.”
The episode underscores the deepening partisan divide in Washington as the shutdown drags on, and the administration celebrates new trade momentum in Asia.
— Justice Dept. warns Supreme Court: Striking Trump’s tariffs would cripple U.S. trade power
Ahead of the Supreme Court’s Nov. 5 hearing, the DOJ urges justices to preserve Trump’s emergency tariff authority, warning that a ruling against it could unravel U.S. trade deals and weaken presidential power in foreign affairs
The Justice Dept. urged the Supreme Court to uphold President Donald Trump’s sweeping use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, warning that a ruling against him would upend U.S. trade policy and strip the executive branch of vital leverage abroad. In a sharply worded brief filed Oct. 30, the DOJ argued that challengers — private importers and a coalition of Democratic state attorneys general — seek to “disarm the President in the highly competitive arena of international trade.” The case will be heard by the Court on Nov. 5, marking one of the most consequential tests yet of the Trump administration’s expansive use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
DOJ’s core argument: Tariffs are a “traditional tool.” The administration contends that IEEPA’s grant of power to “regulate … importation” of foreign goods includes tariffs, calling them a “traditional, well-established method” to manage trade flows. Trump has invoked IEEPA to impose duties on Canada, China, Mexico, and other nations under emergency declarations tied to fentanyl smuggling and trade imbalances, later using those tariffs as leverage in multiple trade agreements.
Opponents argue that tariffs are a form of taxation that only Congress can authorize, saying IEEPA was intended for limited actions such as quotas or safety restrictions. Three lower courts have sided with the plaintiffs, finding that Trump’s interpretation of the statute exceeds his authority and could render it unconstitutional.
DOJ pushes back on limits. In its filing, DOJ accused the plaintiffs of drawing an artificial line that would leave the president powerless to use tariffs even while allowing far more sweeping actions such as embargoes or quotas. Such an outcome, it said, would create an “implausible statutory doughnut.”
The brief also rejected claims that Trump’s actions trigger the “major questions doctrine,” which requires clear congressional authorization for major policy shifts. DOJ argued that doctrine has never been applied to foreign policy or national security, where the president “possesses at least some independent constitutional power to act.”
High foreign policy stakes. The administration warned that a defeat in court would jeopardize Trump’s negotiated trade frameworks with major partners, describing them as worth “trillions of dollars.” If the tariffs were struck down, the government said, those deals would have to be unwound — undermining what Trump has called America’s “unprecedented success” in restoring trade balance and deterring fentanyl trafficking.
What Comes Next. The Supreme Court’s oral arguments are scheduled for Wed., Nov. 5, with a decision likely by late winter or early spring 2026, depending on the Court’s calendar. A ruling upholding Trump’s interpretation could cement broad presidential authority over trade under emergency powers; a ruling against it could reshape the balance between Congress and the White House in U.S. economic policy for decades to come. Link to additional information on this topic contained in the Nov. 1 Weekend Updates.
— Trump looms over Tuesday’s elections — even when he’s not on the ballot
While President Trump keeps his distance from this week’s state races, contests in New Jersey, Virginia, and California still offer a test of his political staying power.
As The New York Times’ Jess Bidgood reports, President Donald Trump has largely ignored the off-year elections unfolding this week — even as their results could reveal how durable his political brand remains in states and districts where he’s not directly on the ballot. While Trump has been traveling through Asia discussing trade, rare earths, and security, these state-level races are shaping up as the first real indicators of how his party may fare in the 2026 midterms.
Republican strategist Mike DuHaime, who advised former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, framed the stakes succinctly: “Will those Trump voters become Republican voters? Do they think any other race, other than presidential, is important enough to come out for?”
New Jersey: Can Trumpism win in a blue state? New Jersey’s Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli provides one of the clearest test cases. As Times reporter Nick Corasaniti observed, Ciattarelli has transformed from a policy-oriented moderate who once criticized Trump into a candidate who now “talks like him” — railing against “open borders” and appearing with far-right figures such as Jack Posobiec.
That strategy, Corasaniti wrote, is “a bet not yet tested in a competitive election since Mr. Trump’s return to power last year.” The outcome will signal whether Trump-style populism can succeed in a traditionally Democratic state — and whether his followers will rally without him atop the ticket.
Will Trump’s 2024 coalition stick? Trump’s 2024 showing in New Jersey surprised many observers: he lost to Kamala Harris by less than six points but gained ground in diverse areas, with every majority-Hispanic township swinging his way by an average of 25 percentage points. The New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher and Christine Zhang described this as an “early test of whether that movement was evidence of a durable political and racial realignment or a passing phenomenon specific to Mr. Trump.”
Democratic pollster Carlos Odio told the paper that New Jersey’s results are “the first meaningful temperature check since the last election,” as both parties seek to understand if Trump’s coalition endures when his name isn’t on the ballot.
The race Trump can’t quit: New York City. Even without a viable Republican contender in New York’s mayoral race, Trump has reportedly sought to shape the outcome. According to the Times, he considered ways to block Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, discussed the race directly with former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and even floated offering Mayor Eric Adams a federal role in exchange for withdrawing — though Adams later dropped out without any such arrangement.
Trump has also threatened to cut federal funds if Mamdani, a democratic socialist, is elected — showing, as Bidgood writes, that even local contests can’t escape his gravitational pull.
Postcard from Sacramento: Newsom’s ballot test. In California, Times correspondent Laurel Rosenhall highlights how Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting initiative — likely to pass Tuesday — could expand Democratic control of the House and boost his own national profile. The campaign has already raised $114 million in under three months, with $38 million from small donors nationwide, expanding what Newsom calls “the most valuable asset” of his career: his long-cultivated supporter list. As Rosenhall notes, Newsom’s success in turning a state ballot measure into a national fundraising vehicle could serve as a foundation for a potential 2028 presidential run.
Bottom Line: Even as Trump keeps his distance, the New York Times observes that his presence is everywhere — shaping rhetoric, strategy, and the stakes of Tuesday’s races across the map.
| OTHER EVENTS & HEARINGS |
— Key hearings and events on tap this week include:
TRUMP / TRADE / USMCA / CHINA
Mon., Nov. 3
- Foreign Policy: “Decoding Trump’s Asia Visit”: Virtual discussion analyzing the diplomatic, trade, and security outcomes of President Trump’s trip across Asia.
- Johns Hopkins SAIS: “Managing Headwinds: North America’s Economy Under Pressure”: Focuses on USMCA renegotiation, Trump’s global tariffs, reshoring, and immigration policy impacts on North American growth.
- Brookings Institution: “China’s Economic Priorities: The Fourth Plenum in Review”: Background on Beijing’s evolving industrial and trade strategies.
- USMCA deadline: Deadline for public comments to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement ahead of 2026 review.
- Senate Ag Committee Business Meeting to consider:
- HR 4550, United States Grain Standards Reauthorization Act of 2025
Nominations:
- Dr. Mindy Brashears, Texas: To be Undersecretary of Agriculture for Food Safety
- Stella Yvette Herrell, New Mexico: To be Assistant Secretary of Agriculture
- John Walk, Virginia: To be Inspector General, USDA
Tue., Nov. 4
- American Bar Association: “Sanctions and Export Controls Enforcement During Trade Transition”: Important for tracking U.S. trade compliance and export control trends.
- RAND Corporation: “Is China’s Economic Plan Changing?”: Examines Beijing’s domestic reforms affecting trade balance and global commodity demand.
- USDA’s National Organic Standards Board Meeting: Omaha, Neb. (Nov. 4–6). Will vote on recommendations to USDA and hear community comments on organic agriculture.
Wed., Nov. 5
- GWU Korea Policy Forum: “Trade and Immigration Policy in U.S./ROK Relations”: Looks at U.S./Korea trade under current Trump policies and the regional response.
- Senate Ag Committee hearing Nomination of Glen Smith to be USDA Undersecretary for Rural Development.
- Supreme Court hears oral arguments in a case challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs.
Thurs., Nov. 6
- Peterson Institute (PIIE): “Bridges and Borders: Economic Policy Across North America”: Continuation of USMCA-related and tariff policy discussions.
- STB nominations: Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on the nominations of John DeLeeuw, Richard Kloster, and Michelle A. Schultz to be members of the Surface Transportation Board (STB).
Friday, Nov. 7
- PIIE: “The Economy One Year After the Election” — assesses how Trump’s policies (trade, tariffs, deregulation) have shaped U.S. macroeconomic trends.
FEDERAL RESERVE / MONETARY POLICY
Mon., Nov. 3
- Fed Governor Lisa Cook and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak on The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy (Washington, DC).
- Brookings: “The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy”: Companion policy discussion.
Tue., Nov. 4
- Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on Bank Supervision and Monetary Policy in Madrid.
Thurs., Nov. 6
- Multiple appearances:
- Governor Michael Barr on Community Development
- Governor Christopher Waller on Central Banking and the Future of Payments
- Regional Presidents John Williams (NY Fed), Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed), Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed), Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) all scheduled to speak.
- Fed Communities hosts How Your Experience of the Economy Matters to the Fed.
Friday, Nov. 7
- Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on AI and the Economy (Germany).
- Fed Governor Stephen Miran on Stablecoins and Monetary Policy (New York).
- John Williams (N.Y. Fed) also speaking.
ENERGY / FERTILIZER / BIOFUELS
Monday, Nov. 3
- Stimson Center: “Renewable Energy and Peace in the Central African Republic”: Highlights renewable deployment in developing regions.
Thursday–Friday, Nov. 6–7
- Atlantic Council: “Partnership for Transatlantic Energy Cooperation”: 6th meeting; Energy Secretary Chris Wright delivers remarks both days, likely covering LNG exports, grid reliability, and allied energy security.
- Friday, Nov. 7 — Resources for the Future (RFF): “The Future of Biofuels: Biofuels in the Economy and Decarbonization Pathways”
| ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Key U.S. economic reports (Nov. 3–7)
Note: Several government data releases remain uncertain or delayed due to the ongoing U.S. gov’t shutdown.
Mon., Nov. 3
PMI Composite Final, ISM Services Index, Construction Spending
These reports offer the first broad look at November’s economic tone. The ISM Services Index is particularly important, given that services account for about 70% of U.S. GDP. A strong reading would suggest resilience in consumer and business spending despite the shutdown. Construction Spending provides insight into infrastructure and housing momentum—two sectors highly sensitive to interest rates and federal funding disruptions.
Tue. Nov. 4
Motor Vehicle Sales, International Trade, Factory Orders, JOLTS
Motor Vehicle Sales give an early read on consumer demand and financing conditions, while the International Trade report will be closely watched for signs of how new tariff changes and disrupted data collection are affecting export volumes. Factory Orders gauge industrial demand — a critical input for GDP —and the JOLTS report (if released) provides a detailed look at labor demand and quits rates, often a leading indicator of wage pressures and labor market cooling.
Wed., Nov. 5
ADP Employment Report, PMI Composite Final, ISM Services Index
The ADP Employment Report offers the first private-sector estimate of October job growth ahead of Friday’s official data. It will serve as a key labor market proxy amid uncertainty surrounding delayed federal data. The PMI and ISM surveys will continue to indicate whether business sentiment is rebounding or contracting under higher borrowing costs and trade uncertainty.
Thurs. Nov. 6
Jobless Claims, Productivity and Costs, Wholesale Trade
Weekly Jobless Claims remain a real-time barometer of employment health, particularly vital during data blackouts caused by the shutdown. Productivity and Costs will help clarify whether wage pressures are translating into inflation or being offset by efficiency gains. Wholesale Trade provides insight into inventory management and potential bottlenecks in supply chains.
Fri., Nov. 7
Employment, Consumer Sentiment, Consumer Credit
The Employment Report (if released) anchors the week — covering payroll growth, unemployment, and wage trends that drive Federal Reserve policy. Consumer Sentiment measures confidence amid inflation and fiscal disruptions, while Consumer Credit will reveal whether households are leaning more on borrowing to sustain spending.
Why It Matters:
This week’s releases form the backbone of early November’s macroeconomic picture — covering labor, trade, consumer behavior, and inflation-sensitive sectors. However, the ongoing shutdown means investors and policymakers may face critical data gaps, complicating decisions by the Federal Reserve and markets trying to gauge real-time economic health.
Mon., Nov. 3
• PMI Composite Final
• ISM Services Index
• Construction Spending
Tue., Nov. 4
• Motor Vehicle Sales
• International Trade
• Factory Orders
• JOLTS
Wed., Nov. 5
• ADP Employment Report
• PMI Composite Final
• ISM Services Index
Thurs., Nov. 6
• Jobless Claims
• Productivity and Costs
• Wholesale Trade
Fri., Nov. 7
• Employment
• Consumer Sentiment
• Consumer Credit
| — KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Ag focus: Traders will key on any additional Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Meanwhile, the United Nations’ food price index will be published Friday. Focus during the week will also be on a food innovation summit in Singapore.
Mon., Nov. 3
• Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil Conference, Kuala Lumpur, day 1
• USDA export inspections: corn, soybeans, wheat
• Holiday: Japan
Tue., Nov. 4
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Asia-Pacific Agri-Food Innovation Summit, Singapore, day 1
• Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil Conference, Kuala Lumpur, day 2
• Brazil’s Conab sugar and cane output data (tentative)
• Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
• Earnings: Archer-Daniels-Midland, Corteva, Mosaic
Wed., Nov. 5
• Asia-Pacific Agri-Food Innovation Summit, Singapore, day 2
• Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil Conference, Kuala Lumpur, day 3
• Malaysia’s Nov. 1-5 palm oil exports
• Earnings: Barry Callebaut, Bunge Global, Nutrien
• Holiday: India
Thurs., Nov. 6
• Asia-Pacific Agri-Food Innovation Summit, Singapore, day 3
• Earnings: Suzano
Fri., Nov. 7
• United Nations’ FAO food price index and monthly grains report
• AMIS Market Monitor
• FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions report
• Earnings: CNH Industrial
| — KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Energy focus: Following a Sunday videoconference, the 22-nation OPEC+ alliance — led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — agreed to restore about 137,000 barrels per day next month, matching earlier hikes in October and November. But the group will halt additional output boosts from January through March to account for weaker seasonal demand and growing inventories.
Meanwhile, BP, Saudi Aramco and ConocoPhillips are among the major energy companies due to report 3Q results.
Conferences during the week include ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi. The UN’s COP30 climate event will get under way in Brazil toward the end of the week Saudi OSPs for December should emerge in the coming days.
NOTE: U.S. releases are listed as normal, though data may be delayed or postponed amid the government shutdown
Mon., Nov. 3
• ADIPEC in Abu Dhabi; runs through Thursday
• JPMorgan Global Energy Conference, London; runs through Tuesday
• Paris InfraWeek, runs through Friday
• Earnings: Coterra, Williams, Diamondback
• Holiday: Japan; Russia
Tue., Nov 4
• API US inventory report
• TotalEnergies to present annual Energy Outlook in Paris
• Bloomberg Green COP30 in Sao Paulo
• Earnings: Saudi Aramco, BP, Marathon, Suncor
• Holiday: Russia
Wed. Nov. 5
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• Warm by 2050NOW conference, Paris
• ICE gasoil options for November expire
• IEA Energy Innovation Forum
• Earnings: Vestas, Orsted, Targa, Devon Energy, Tourmaline
• Holiday: India
Thurs., Nov. 6
• EIA Natural Gas Report
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• UN COP30 Leaders’ Summit, Belem, Brazil; runs through Friday; main conference runs through Nov. 21
• Earnings: National Grid Plc, Engie, ConocoPhillips, Canadian Natural, TC Energy, Petrobras
Fri., Nov. 7
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• China International Oil & Gas Trade Congress in Shanghai; runs through Saturday
• BTC Azeri loading program (December) due
• Earnings: EOG Resources, Constellation Energy, Enbridge, Duke Energy
