Potential China Waivers Re: Tariffs a Focus
USDA nears launch of Stage 2 disaster aid payments | Jared Golden’s exit opens a key battleground in New England | SCOTUS tariff hearing update | Pelosi not seeking re-election
Link: Supreme Court Justices Question Legality of Trump’s Tariff Powers
Link: Corteva Lifts Outlook as Split Plan Gathers Steam, Banking on Seeds,
New Chemistries and Biologicals
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 31
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 31
Today’s Updates:
TRADE & CHINA
— Key to U.S. soybean sales to China… waivers
— Why Nov. 10 for the tariff changes re: U.S. and China?
— China buys U.S. wheat and sorghum in symbolic post-summit gesture
— Update on China’s “applied tariff rate” on most pork and variety meats
— China’s state-owned COFCO soybean procurement signing ceremony
— China positions itself as a global “anchor of stability” at CIIE
CONGRESS & POLITICS
— Democrats see election wins as validation of shutdown strategy
— Trump touts egg-price plunge, credits USDA chief Brooke Rollins
— USDA scales back SNAP cuts, will fund 65% of November benefits
— Trump 11 a.m. ET Oval Office “announcement” on obesity-drug costs
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today
— Equities yesterday
— Nutrien beats forecasts, eyes options for phosphate unit
— Bank of England keeps rates steady, hints at approaching policy shift
AG MARKETS
— India set to double sugar export allocation amid lower ethanol diversion
— Agriculture markets yesterday
FARM POLICY
— USDA nears launch of Stage 2 disaster aid payments
— All three legs of the farm safety net still matter
COTTON
— Better Cotton Initiative exceeds 50% traceability milestone
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices regained a little ground today
— Oil prices dipped Wednesday on supply-glut fears
— Summit Carbon relaunches pipeline project with new route and incentives
— Power bills surge nationwide as grid and fuel costs climb
TRADE POLICY
— Sheep industry petitions USTR for emergency probe into surging lamb imports
— Trump’s trade overhaul leaves nearly half of U.S. imports facing tariffs
CONGRESS
— Tuberville bill to expand market access for livestock producers (DIRECT Act)
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Pelosi bids farewell after four decades in Congress
— Jared Golden’s exit opens a key battleground in New England
— Trump looks past GOP losses toward 2026 midterms
— Republicans sue to block California’s new House maps
— Doug Sosnik: What to watch in the 2026 and 2028 elections
— Mamdani’s post-victory moves rattle New York’s business elite
NOMINATIONS
— Trump names former Rep. Stevan Pearce to head Bureau of Land Management
TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS
— FAA to cut flights at 40 major airports if shutdown persists
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Unsettled West; Friday severe risk OH/TN Valleys;
colder Upper Midwest
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 6, 2025
Up Front— Key to U.S. soybean sales to China… waivers: U.S. sellers need clarity on whether China will administratively waive the remaining 10% fentanyl-related tariff—and whether waivers cover only SOEs or also private buyers. Some think China pre-hedged via CBOT futures. — Why Nov. 10 for tariff changes?: A White House proclamation times U.S. tariff cuts to midnight ET, triggering China’s at 1:01 p.m. local; post-suspension, U.S. soybeans still face ~13% duty vs. Brazil’s 3%—roughly a $1.20/bu disadvantage. — China buys U.S. wheat & sorghum: Small, symbolic wheat (120k MT) and first sorghum shipment since the thaw—goodwill signals while big soybean buys await tariff relief/price parity. — China’s applied tariff on U.S. pork: NPPC pegs most pork/variety meats at a 47% applied rate (12% MFN + 25% 232 retaliation + 10% reciprocal) effective Nov. 10. — COFCO soybean signing ceremony: State trader staged a procurement event at CIIE — no volumes disclosed — hinting at movement on pledged U.S. ag purchases. — China casts itself as “anchor of stability”: At CIIE, Premier Li Qiang vows more openness, WTO-centered rules, and a five-year growth push to boost investor confidence. — Democrats tout elections amid shutdown: Schumer/Jeffries say wins validate their stance; quiet bipartisan talks continue on a deal tied to ACA subsidies. — Kudlow interview — Bessent: Treasury chief sounds upbeat SCOTUS will uphold IEEPA tariffs; frames levies as temporary tools to “rebalance” trade and manufacturing. — McEowen’s take on SCOTUS case: Expects a fractured plurality; warns a reversal could trigger refund fights over duties and shift negotiating leverage with partners. — Trump on prices/eggs: Claims sharp egg-price drop and broader affordability gains; credits USDA actions and energy policy. — SNAP funding shift: USDA will pay 65% of November benefits (not 50%); some states cite system reconfig delays as court hearing looms. — 11 a.m. Oval Office “announcement”: Expected move on cutting costs for GLP-1 obesity drugs—target price floated at ~$149/month. — Markets: Global equities steadied after a rebound; focus on Fed speakers (Williams, Waller) for hints on a December cut. — Nutrien: Beats earnings; launches strategic review of phosphate unit amid strong potash demand. — Bank of England: Holds rates (5–4) but signals cuts are getting closer; forecasts 2% inflation by mid-2027. — India sugar: Likely to double export quota to 2 MMT as ethanol diversion falls—bearish for world prices near five-year lows. — USDA disaster aid Stage 2: Final rule cleared OMB; payments for shallow/quality losses in 2023–24 are set to roll. — Farm safety net: Texas A&M economists say ARC/PLC, marketing loans, and crop insurance are complementary—none can replace the others. — Better Cotton: BCI says >50% of its cotton is now traceable across 15 countries; rapid uptake by brands/retailers. — Oil: Modest bounce today after two-week lows; Wednesday’s drop tied to crude builds and supply-glut fears. — Summit Carbon: Rerouting CO₂ pipeline toward Colorado’s DJ Basin; new incentives, longer timeline, and continued landowner resistance. — Power bills: NYT/LBNL analysis blames grid upgrades, gas costs, and regional factors for sharp state-by-state increases; renewables’ impact is mixed. — Sheep industry: ASI petitions USTR for Section 201 safeguards as imports grab ~70% of U.S. market and producers exit. — Tariffs now touch ~half of U.S. imports: NYT says emergency levies reshaped trade; much hinges on SCOTUS IEEPA ruling. — DIRECT Act: Tuberville/Marshall/Hyde-Smith push interstate sales of state-inspected meat in retail quantities to expand markets. — Pelosi retires: First female Speaker ends a 38-year run; Democrats hail a historic legacy. — Jared Golden exits: ME-2 open seat becomes a top GOP pickup target in Trump-leaning district. — Trump eyes 2026: After GOP losses, focus shifts to midterms as parties reassess coalitions and maps. — GOP sues over California maps: Republicans challenge Prop 50, alleging racial bias; big implications for House control. — Doug Sosnik memo: Ten trends shaping 2026/2028—structural hurdles for Dems, end of the Trump era, and rising generational turnover. — Mamdani transition: NYC mayor-elect taps Lina Khan; business community wary as progressive agenda takes shape. — BLM nominee: Trump picks ex-Rep. Stevan Pearce, signaling more grazing access and fewer conservation expansions. — FAA cuts if shutdown persists: Admin warns “surgical” 10% flight reductions at major airports due to staffing strain. — Weather: Pacific Northwest/N. California storms; possible Friday severe weather OH/TN valleys to Gulf; colder Upper Midwest this weekend. —Key to U.S. soybean sales to China… waiversHow will China react? U.S. soybean exporters are trying to get clarity on whether the 10% Fentanyl-related tariff on U.S. soybeans will be administratively waived by China, whether waivers will apply only to SOEs (State-Owned Enterprises) or also the private sector, etc.A U.S. soybean industry contact emails: “It seems like our government negotiators may not have realized the impact of that remaining 10% China would keep in place. In a globally competitive commodity market with Brazil, every percentage point counts, especially if purchases hinge on market competitiveness. China might waive the extra tariff for government owned/state owned enterprises, but not sure if they would do that for privately held firms. That could allow some purchases to go through but may not expect them to go far beyond the baseline commitments if it’s just Chinese government owned companies buying. This will have to be addressed.” Some analysts speculate China may have already met its pledge to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by building a position in CBOT soybean futures, which it could unwind as physical purchases and shipments occur through the 2025-26 crop year ending Aug. 30.—Why Nov. 10 for the tariff changes re: U.S. and China? Because the White House on Tuesday issued a proclamation (link) to halve 20% tariffs the U.S. had imposed on Chinese goods under what Trump deemed a national emergency related to migration and fentanyl trafficking. Those tariffs will drop to 10% on Nov. 10 at 1:01 PM in China, exactly one minute after midnight in the U.S., when corresponding American actions — including a 10% reduction on fentanyl-related tariffs and 24% reduction in Liberation Day tariffs – become effective. This table compares the import tariff and value-added tax (VAT) applied by China on soybean imports from the United States and Brazil following the Nov. 10, 2025, tariff suspension. ExporterImport TariffImport VATEffective Total ChargeNotesBrazil3% (MFN)13%≈16%MFN rate; subject to standard 13% VAT.United States13% (post-suspension, down from 23%)13%≈26%Higher base tariff; VAT applies on CIF+tariff value.Note: Both the U.S. and Brazil pay the same 13% VAT. The key difference lies in the import tariff — 3% for Brazil versus 13% for the U.S. — which creates a roughly $44/metric ton ($1.20/bushel) disadvantage for U.S. soybeans. —China buys U.S. wheat and sorghum in symbolic post-summit gestureLimited purchases mark Beijing’s first wheat imports in a year as broader farm commitments await follow-through China has made its first purchases of U.S. wheat in over a year and resumed imports of U.S. sorghum following last week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, signaling a tentative reopening of agricultural trade between the world’s two largest economies. Chinese buyers booked two cargoes totaling about 120,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat for December shipment — one of soft white wheat and another of spring wheat, according to trade sources cited by Reuters, The move follows Beijing’s suspension of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. farm goods and is viewed by traders as more symbolic than commercial, given that U.S. wheat is not the cheapest on the global market. “This is more of China showing commitment to buy U.S. grains… it’s a political move,” said one Singapore-based grains trader familiar with the deals. A U.S. sorghum cargo also departed for China this week — its first such shipment since the trade thaw — offering further evidence of limited but deliberate follow-through on agricultural commitments. We previously reported a sorghum sale to China. The renewed activity underscores the early phase of a broader purchase framework pledged during the Trump/Xi meeting, which included a U.S. expectation of 12 million metric tons of soybean purchases by year-end. However, traders noted that Beijing’s decision to maintain a 13% tariff on soybeans continues to deter large-scale commercial buying, with Chinese importers favoring cheaper Brazilian supplies. Bottom Line: For now, the wheat and sorghum deals appear designed to signal goodwill and jumpstart confidence in the post-summit trade détente — small steps toward the larger farm commitments still pending. —Update on China’s “applied tariff rate” on most pork and variety meats. Pork: The National Pork Producers Assn. (NPPC) says “the applied tariff rate on most pork and pork variety meats will be 47%, inclusive of 25% Section 232 retaliation and 10% reciprocal (+12% MFN) starting Nov. 10.”China Tariffs on U.S. Pork and Variety Meats (Effective Nov. 10, 2025)Tariff ComponentDescriptionRate12% MFN rateChina’s base ‘most favored nation’ duty on pork imports from WTO members (applies to all)12%25% Section 232 retaliationAdded in response to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs under Section 23225%10% reciprocal tariffImposed under President Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariff’ framework (retaliation-related under IEEPA)10%Total applied rate (cumulative)MFN + 232 retaliation + reciprocal≈47% Clarification:This cumulative rate is applied ad valorem (not compounding), meaning the 25% and 10% are added directly to the 12% base MFN. China lists this as its “applied” duty in Customs schedules for U.S. origin pork, separate from Brazil, EU, or Chile, which continue to face only the 12% MFN (or less, depending on bilateral FTA concessions). —China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO held a soybean procurement signing ceremony this morningMove signalspossible movement on large-scale agricultural purchases pledged under the new U.S./China trade framework. Cao Derong, president of the China Chamber of Commerce for the Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Native Produce and Animal By-Products, confirmed the event at the U.S./China Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum in Shanghai, part of the China International Import Expo (CIIE). Cao offered no details on purchase volumes or suppliers but said the ceremony reflected that “China-U.S. bilateral trade has gone through many twists and turns and is now able to proceed normally again… there is light at the end of the tunnel.” The timing follows a White House announcement after the Trump/Xi meeting in South Korea that Beijing would import 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in November–December 2025, and at least 25 million tons annually through 2028. China has not confirmed those figures, and traders are watching for evidence of follow-through. Beijing said it would suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, including farm goods, though U.S. soybeans will still face a 13% tariff as detailed previously — down from pre-suspension levels but still above pre-trade-war rates. COFCO has not commented publicly on the deal’s scope or timing. Of note: China’s flagship trade show drew over 310,000 overseas visitors, with American participation up 14%, signaling a rebound in demand despite ongoing tariffs. —China positions itself as a global “anchor of stability” at CIIEPremier Li Qiang pledges reforms, market openness, and stronger WTO-centered trade system amid global uncertainty Chinese Premier Li Qiang used his opening speech at the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai on Nov. 5 to present China as an “anchor of stability” in an unpredictable global economy. The annual event — launched in 2018 as a showcase for China’s commitment to international trade — has become a key platform for signaling Beijing’s openness to foreign business and investment. Li reaffirmed China’s support for mutually beneficial cooperation and criticized “unilateral and protectionist measures,” a veiled reference to U.S. and Western trade policies. He urged reforms to the global trading system and a stronger WTO-centered multilateral framework, framing China as a defender of globalization and free trade. The premier pledged that China would continue to prioritize economic development, nurture new growth drivers, and create a more predictable environment for global firms. “China will continue to prioritize economic development…to fully unleash the potential of its mega market,” he said, promising that a more open, transparent regulatory system would foster long-term investment confidence. Li also offered a bullish outlook for China’s economy, forecasting that within five years it would surpass 170 trillion yuan (about $23 trillion), emphasizing that such growth would represent “new significant contributions to global growth.” His message was clear: even as global trade faces fragmentation and risk, China aims to position itself as a steady, dependable hub for international commerce. —Democrats see election wins as validation of shutdown strategySenate talks continue behind the scenes on potential deal tied to Obamacare subsidies Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other Democrats spent Wednesday celebrating their strong showing in Tuesday’s elections, calling the results a public endorsement of their stance in the ongoing government shutdown fight. But despite the public optimism, Senate Democrats engaged in bipartisan negotiations continue working privately toward a potential deal with Republicans that would include a commitment to hold a vote on restoring ObamaCare subsidies. Senators involved said none of the roughly dozen Democrats who supported the framework as of Tuesday had backed away after the election results. Appropriations ranking member Patty Murray (D-Wash.) cautioned that the talks remain in early stages: “We haven’t received any paper on the stopgap funding measure or the three-bill minibus (including Agriculture) that would accompany it,” she said. Progressives, meanwhile, are pressing party leaders not to trade too much in exchange for reopening the government. “Last night’s message seems pretty clear because it is consistent with polling that tells us that folks want us to keep this fight up,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). House Democrats echoed the sentiment. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters that the shutdown will continue “until President Donald Trump gets involved,” adding that Schumer and Jeffries had called on the president to meet with them earlier in the day. “The message from voters is about affordability and economic fairness, and that’s what we’ll continue to fight for,” Jeffries said. Senate Democrats are scheduled to hold a special caucus meeting Thursday afternoon to discuss next steps. Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has warned the Senate could remain in session through the weekend if tangible progress emerges, though senators may be sent home with plans to return Monday if no deal materializes. Buoyed by Election Day victories and President Donald Trump’s admission that Republicans are taking more political blame, many Democrats want to hold out for a stronger health-care deal. “The goal of all Democrats is to extend the tax credits for all Americans,” said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.). But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has not promised a House vote, and about a dozen Senate Democrats remain reluctant to reopen the government without clear progress. Republicans insist Democrats must reopen the government first. Schumer and Jeffries are pressing for a direct meeting with Trump, hoping his frustration with the prolonged shutdown could open the door to a bipartisan deal.  —Kudlow interview: Bessent confident Supreme Court will uphold Trump’s emergency tariff powersTreasury Secretary defends IEEPA authority, says tariffs aim to “rebalance” trade and revive U.S. manufacturing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business’ Larry Kudlow on Wednesday that he came away “very, very optimistic” after the Supreme Court heard arguments on the legality of President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs. The case centers on whether Trump’s actions under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded his constitutional authority. Strong defense of tariff strategy. Bessent praised Solicitor General D. John Sauer’s presentation, calling it a “fantastic case” that demonstrated how the tariffs were designed to rebalance trade during an “economic emergency.” Quote of note: “President Trump has used [the IEEPA] to balance trade, negotiate with the Chinese on fentanyl, secure rare earth magnets, and get the Indians to stop buying Russian oil,” Bessent said. “The purpose of the tariffs is to rebalance global trade… and bring home manufacturing.” He dismissed the plaintiffs’ arguments as “embarrassing,” saying they lacked basic understanding of economic and trade policy. Bessent emphasized that tariff revenues were “coincident” — not the objective — of a broader strategy to restore equilibrium in global commerce. “A proper tariff policy will be a shrinking ice cube,” he explained. “We start out with high tariffs, but as the economy gets rebalanced, the tariffs will go down. Manufacturing will increase in the U.S., and our domestic tax take will go up.” Justices’ reaction and national security angle. Bessent said several justices appeared to appreciate the link between trade and national security, and understood that Trump’s actions were consistent with constitutional foreign-policy powers. “Economic and national security are linked — they cannot be separated,” he said. “The President has ultimate control over national security and foreign affairs.” He cited an exchange in which Justice Brett Kavanaugh asked a plaintiff’s lawyer whether a president could impose a total embargo but not a small tariff, a question that underscored what Bessent called “the absurdity” of the opposing argument. On the prediction market Kalshi, the odds of a favorable ruling on the IEEPA tariffs plunged to 28%, down from 58% in early September.President Donald Trump said it would be “devastating for our country” if the Supreme Court struck down his administration’s sweeping global tariffs after key justices questioned whether he overstepped his authority during oral arguments Wednesday.Trump said in an interview with Fox News’ Brett Bair that he had been told the case “went well” but warned that the “entire world would be in a depression” had he not been able to implement the levies on goods from trading partners. “I think it’s one of the most important, maybe the most, but one of the most important cases in the history of our country,” Trump said.The president went on to argue that he was able to force China to remove planned curbs on rare earths because of the threat of increasing tariffs on the country. “That wasn’t a threat against us, that was a threat against the entire world,” Trump said. “I did this for the world.” Domestic politics and economic outlook. Later in the interview, Kudlow pivoted to domestic issues — including the election of New York City’s new socialist mayor, which Bessent mocked as “Welcome to Caracas on the Hudson.” He also lauded President Trump’s Miami economic speech, crediting him for strong growth and falling prices. “In seven or eight months, you’re looking at 4% economic growth,” Kudlow said. “Grocery prices were up 23% during the Biden years, but the CPI under Trump is up only 1.7%.” Bessent agreed, saying the administration would intensify its outreach to highlight results of the “one big, beautiful bill” passed on July 4, which includes tax exemptions for tips, overtime, Social Security, and auto loans on American-made cars. He revealed that the Treasury Department will launch a biweekly “extract and educate” initiative to explain parts of the bill to the public, while also noting his dual role as Treasury Secretary and IRS Commissioner gives him insight into withholding trends. Quote of note: “No one has changed their withholding for 2025, so in the first quarter of 2026 working families are going to see very good refunds coming out. They will change their withholding on Jan. 1, so they will get real wage increases,” Bessent said. Kudlow: “I’ve seen estimates, Secretary, I’ve seen estimates of those withholdings up to a couple of $200 billion — $200 billion as high as that….” “Parallel prosperity” and Main Street focus. Bessent concluded by framing Trump’s policies as a bridge between Wall Street and working Americans. “It’s time for Main Street to catch up,” he said. “With parallel prosperity, Wall Street and Main Street can do great together. I think 2026 is going to be Main Street’s year.” The upbeat tone of the Kudlow-Bessent interview reflected growing confidence within the administration that the Supreme Court will affirm Trump’s expansive use of economic emergency powers — a decision that could cement his trade agenda and reshape executive authority for decades. Link to a special report on Wednesday that had a different take on the hearing. For example, Justice Amy Coney Barrett questioned U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer whether the “reciprocal tariffs” were truly a necessity. “Is it your contention that every country needed to be tariffed because of threats to the defense and industrial base?” she asked. “I mean, Spain? France?” Justice Sam Alito signaled the president could use other authorities to impose much of his program. Justice Neil Gorsuch expressed caution that the administration’s use of the IEEPA potentially created “a one-way ratchet toward the continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.” McEowen Sees Divided Supreme Court on Tariff Powers Case Agricultural law expert Roger McEowen (Washburn School of Law) told RFD-TV (link) that he expects a “fractured plurality opinion” from the Supreme Court in the pending tariff-authority case. “Looks to me like a 3-3 split, with some combination of Roberts, Barrett, and either Gorsuch or Kavanaugh forming a separate bloc,” McEowen said. He predicted that Justices Alito and Thomas would “read the statute as I do,” while discounting Justices Sotomayor, Jackson, and Kagan, saying “we know how they will come out.” McEowen also suggested that recent Senate efforts to weigh in on tariff legislation were “a message to the Court that the courts should stay out of this fight.” A reversal could inject new uncertainty into business and trade. Would companies seek to recover the duties they’ve already paid on the tariffs in question — and how might that ripple through the Treasury Department’s revenue outlook? And what about ongoing talks with key partners such as India and Brazil? If those governments believe the Supreme Court might strike down a major pillar of President Trump’s tariff framework, will they adjust their negotiating positions accordingly?  —Trump touts egg-price plunge, credits USDA chief Brooke RollinsEggs “down 85% since March,” president says, praising USDA response to early spike At the America Business Forum in Miami on Nov. 5, President Donald Trump spotlighted food prices — eggs in particular — saying that after an early term spike that drew press scrutiny, “within a couple of months, we got them down.” He credited “a great Department of Agriculture headed by Brooke Rollins” for the response and later claimed, “Since March, the price of eggs is down 85%.” Trump framed the episode as proof that his administration is “making America affordable again,” tying lower grocery costs to broader efforts on energy and inflation. Trump, during an interview Wednesday with Fox News’ Bret Baier, his first since the election defeats, said: “We’ve done so much. Energy is way down… We’re going to have $2 gasoline. I did that. That brings everything else down. Groceries are way down, other than beef. Now, beef is going to come down… I was two days in office, and they tell me about eggs, I solved that… The fact is, we have prices way down.” For Trump, the issue isn’t the cost of living: it’s Republican messaging. “The country is doing very well,” he went on. “But as Republicans, you have to talk about it. Because if you don’t talk about it, you know, I saw [the Dems] kept talking about affordability. Well, Biden was a disaster with affordability … It’s no good if we do a great job and you don’t talk about it. And I don’t think [Republicans] talk about it enough.” —USDA scales back SNAP cuts, will fund 65% of November benefitsAgency adjusts plan amid state concerns over technical delays, contingency funds USDA will now deliver 65% of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for November, easing its earlier plan to reduce payments by half. In a court filing, USDA official Patrick Penn said additional analysis showed that “maximum allotments need only be reduced by 35% instead of 50%” to manage the program’s contingency fund. However, states are split on implementation speed. Some expect to issue benefits next week, while others — like Pennsylvania — warn of technical delays. Valerie Arkoosh, Pennsylvania’s Human Services Secretary, said it would take roughly 10,000 hours and up to 12 days to reconfigure the aid distribution matrix. In a letter obtained by CNN, she urged USDA to adopt the same approach used for pandemic-era food aid — a one-time issuance of half the usual benefit. A hearing before U.S. District Judge John McConnell is scheduled for today as part of ongoing litigation over the department’s management of SNAP funds. —Trump has an11 a.m. ET Oval Office “announcement” on hisschedule. Reports say this should be the long-trailed deal to cut the cost of obesity drugs. The president said last month he hoped to strike an agreement with drugmakers to reduce the bill for wildly popular GLP-1 medications like Wegovy and Zepbound to $149 a month. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets steadied on Thursday as investors weighed stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data that helped spark a rebound from the sharp early week selloff. Wall Street futures were largely flat after North American indexes closed higher in yesterday’s session, recovering some of their recent losses. On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from AstraZeneca PLC and ConocoPhillips. Turning to the Fed, there are numerous speakers today, the most important of which are Waller (3:30 p.m. ET) and Williams (11:00 a.m. ET). If they are supportive of a December rate cut, that should help stocks as they are part of Fed leadership (and Waller is in the running to be the next Fed Chair). Other Fed speakers include: Barr (11:00 a.m. ET) , Hammack (12:00 p.m. ET), Paulson (4:30 p.m. ET) and Musalem (5:30 p.m. ET). In Asia, Japan +1.3%. Hong Kong +2.1%. China +1%. India -0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. 5 | Point Difference from Nov. 4 | % Difference from Nov.4 |
| Dow | 47,311.00 | +225.76 | +0.48% |
| Nasdaq | 23,499.80 | +151.16 | +0.65% |
| S&P 500 | 6,796.29 | +24.74 | +0.37% |
—Nutrien beats forecasts, eyes options for phosphate unit
Strong potash demand lifts earnings as company considers restructuring or sale
Nutrien Ltd. exceeded Wall Street expectations for third-quarter profit and announced a strategic review of its phosphate business, signaling a possible shake-up in its fertilizer portfolio.
The Saskatoon-based company reported adjusted earnings of 97 cents per share, slightly ahead of analyst estimates of 95 cents, according to LSEG data. Total sales climbed to $6.01 billion, up from $5.35 billion a year earlier.
Nutrien said the review could involve reconfiguring operations, forming partnerships, or selling its phosphate segment to streamline its portfolio and enhance cash flow. Phosphate markets remain tight in 2025 due to constrained global supply — exacerbated by Chinese export restrictions — while high input costs have dampened farmer demand.
Potash, however, proved a bright spot. Nutrien — the world’s largest producer — reported 27% higher potash sales at $1.12 billion, fueled by a robust North American planting season and lower prices that encouraged application. Phosphate sales also grew 20% to $495 million for the July–September period.
Shares rose 1.8% after hours as investors welcomed the company’s operational focus and ongoing portfolio simplification efforts.
—Bank of England keeps rates steady, hints at approaching policy shift
Governor Bailey says inflation risks easing but urges caution before cutting rates; forecasts show inflation reaching 2% target by mid-2027
The Bank of England on Thursday held interest rates unchanged in a 5–4 vote — narrower than anticipated — signaling that a rate cut could be nearing. Governor Andrew Bailey, who voted to keep rates steady, said inflation risks appear to have eased but emphasized “value in waiting for further evidence” before acting. “We still think rates are on a gradual path downwards, but we need to be sure that inflation is on track to return to our 2% target before we cut them again,” Bailey said.
Updated projections from the BOE show inflation declining through 2026 and reaching its 2% goal in the second quarter of 2027. Economists now expect the central bank to begin cutting rates within the next two policy meetings, though the upcoming UK government budget could shift inflation expectations and influence the BOE’s timing.
| AG MARKETS |
—India set to double sugar export allocation amid lower ethanol diversion
Industry groups push for early export approvals before Brazil’s new crop hits global markets
India is likely to double its sugar export quota to 2 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season as weaker ethanol diversion leaves the country with a larger domestic surplus, industry officials told Reuters on Thursday. The move could put additional pressure on New York and London sugar futures, which are already trading near five-year lows.
India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, had banned sugar exports in 2023/24 due to drought, allowing only 1 million tons last season. But the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) now expects net sugar output to reach 30.95 million tons, up 18.5% from last year, after diverting just 3.4 million tons to ethanol — less than earlier projections of 4.5–5 million tons.
Only 28% of the ethanol allocation has gone to sugar-based plants, with the rest supplied by grain-based producers. As a result, mills face excess sugar inventories and lower ethanol revenues. Industry leaders, including the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), are urging the government to authorize exports early, giving mills a narrow three-month window before Brazil’s new season floods the market.
While domestic sugar prices remain above global benchmarks, mills expect export parity by December as fresh supplies come online. “Mills will incur losses due to unutilized ethanol capacity,” ISMA’s Deepak Ballani said, “and they will have to produce more sugar to cover costs.”
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov. 5 | Change from Nov. 4 |
| Corn | Dec | $4.35¼ | +3¾¢ |
| Soybeans | Jan | $11.34¼ | +12¾¢ |
| Soybean Meal | Dec | $324.80 | +$7.40 |
| Soybean Oil | Dec | 49.69¢ | +16 pts |
| Wheat (SRW) | Dec | $5.54¾ | +4½¢ |
| Wheat (HRW) | Dec | $5.40 | +3½¢ |
| Spring Wheat | Dec | $5.56 | −1¼¢ |
| Cotton | Dec | 65.23¢ | +3 pts |
| Live Cattle | Dec | $220.525 | −$7.25 |
| Feeder Cattle | Jan | $319.975 | −$9.25 |
| Lean Hogs | Dec | $80.60 | +67½¢ |
| FARM POLICY |
—USDA nears launch of Stage 2 disaster aid payments
Final rule clears White House review, paving way for expanded 2023–24 relief
USDA is preparing to roll out the second phase of its Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP), which will compensate producers for uninsured or uncovered “shallow losses,” including quality-related crop losses and damage to trees, bushes, and vines caused by eligible weather events in 2023 or 2024.
USDA sent the final rule for the program to the Office of Management and Budget on Oct. 24, and OMB completed its review on Nov. 5 — clearing the way for implementation. The disaster aid was authorized under the Disaster Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2025.
While USDA had initially targeted October for the Stage 2 signup, that timeline was pushed back due to the government shutdown. With Farm Service Agency offices now reopened for limited activities — including processing disaster assistance — the department is expected to begin the Stage 2 payment process shortly.
Of note: SDRP Stage 2 is intended, according to USDA, “For producers with uncovered losses, quality losses, and [where the producer has] crop insurance or NAP coverage for 2023/2024 but experienced shallow losses and did not receive an indemnity.”
—All three legs of the farm safety net still matter
Texas A&M economists Joe Outlaw and Bart Fischer explain why ARC/PLC, marketing loans, and crop insurance each play a distinct role — and why none can fully replace another
In their latest analysis (link), Joe Outlaw and Bart Fischer of the Agricultural & Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University respond to a recurring producer question: if ARC and PLC programs haven’t provided much support recently, why not drop them and focus entirely on crop insurance?
They emphasize that the producer safety net has three interconnected parts — ARC and PLC, marketing assistance loans, and crop insurance — each serving a unique function depending on market conditions. While crop insurance has been the most effective in recent years, especially under revenue-based policies, it is not always sufficient. In periods of low commodity prices, insurance guarantees fall because they’re based on market futures averages, leaving producers indemnified at levels below their costs of production.
The economists note that the new “One Big Beautiful Bill” has strengthened ARC and PLC by raising reference prices and adjusting triggers to provide earlier and larger payments when needed. Meanwhile, marketing assistance loans continue to provide critical liquidity for producers — especially in the South — who prefer to delay sales beyond harvest lows.
Ultimately, Outlaw and Fischer conclude that the strength of the producer safety net lies in its design as a complementary system. When one component weakens due to market conditions, the others become more valuable, ensuring a more stable foundation for U.S. agriculture over time.
| COTTON |
—Better Cotton Initiative exceeds 50% traceability milestone
Half of BCI Cotton in global supply chains now fully traceable across 15 countries
The Better Cotton Initiative (BCI) announced that more than half of its global cotton volumes are now traceable two years after launching its traceability platform. Over 50% of BCI Cotton entering global textile and fashion supply chains can now be traced back to its origin, spanning 15 countries.
Since the rollout of BCI Traceability in November 2023, more than 60 retailers and brands have committed to sourcing Physical BCI Cotton, with 17 already receiving certified, traceable products. “The complexity of textile supply chains, combined with increased legislation, makes the offer of traceability non-negotiable,” said Jacky Broomhead, BCI’s Director of Traceability. “To continue delivering on our mission to support cotton farmers and ensure market access, we needed to make BCI Cotton traceable.”
In just two years, over 23,000 metric tons of Physical BCI Cotton have been tracked from gins to retailers — a sharp rise from just 90 tons in 2024 — enough to produce more than 127 million cotton t-shirts. The traceability program now operates in all countries where BCI runs field-level programs, helping suppliers comply with its Chain of Custody Standard to guarantee system integrity.
Rapid global expansion. BCI has expanded its traceability operations to Australia and Brazil in the past year, while the number of supplier and manufacturer members aligned with the CoC Standard has surged from 700 to over 2,000. “Making traceability both accessible and inclusive of all BCI farmers has been a key goal of ours,” Broomhead added, calling the milestone “a truly collaborative effort” among retailers, suppliers, and brands.
The initiative’s success will underpin BCI’s new third-party-certified product label, launched last month, which allows members to claim confidently that their products contain traceable Physical BCI Cotton. The certification provides assurance for consumers and bolsters credibility for retailers seeking to demonstrate responsible sourcing.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices regained a little ground today, buoyed by easing concerns over a potential supply glut as sanctions on Russian companies begin to bite. Having closed Wednesday at two-week lows, Brent crude futures were up 1% to $64.17 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained 1.2% to $60.33. The latest sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil companies two weeks ago are sparking some concerns about supply disruptions, despite rising output from OPEC and its allies, analysts said.
—Oil prices dipped Wednesday on supply glut fears despite strong U.S. gasoline demand
Crude stocks rise sharply as imports rebound; OPEC+ confirms modest December hike before pause
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Wednesday to their lowest levels in two weeks, pressured by concerns of a potential global oversupply. Brent crude settled down 92 cents, or 1.43%, at $63.52 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 96 cents, or 1.59%, to $59.60.
U.S. government data showed crude inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million, far exceeding analyst expectations for a minor build. The increase was attributed to a rebound in imports and reduced refinery activity during seasonal maintenance.
On the brighter side, gasoline inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels, a larger-than-expected draw that underscored firm U.S. demand despite wider economic uncertainty.
In supply developments, Canada signaled it may drop its cap on oil and gas emissions, opening the door to higher production. Meanwhile, OPEC+ confirmed plans to boost output by 137,000 barrels per day in December, then hold steady through the first quarter of 2026.
Elsewhere, Kazakhstan’s production slipped 10% last month to 1.69 million barrels per day — still above its OPEC+ target — while Russia’s Black Sea port of Tuapse halted fuel exports following Ukrainian drone attacks that damaged refinery operations.
—Summit Carbon relaunches pipeline project with new route and incentives
Facing continued landowner opposition, Summit Carbon Solutions plans to reroute its carbon capture pipeline toward Colorado’s Denver-Julesburg Basin and revamp compensation offers
Summit Carbon Solutions is overhauling its carbon capture pipeline proposal after facing major resistance from landowners and state regulators. The company is now considering a westward route that would direct carbon captured from ethanol plants to Colorado’s Denver-Julesburg Basin—spanning parts of Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado—rather than its original destination in North Dakota for underground storage.
According to Bloomberg, Summit has installed a new leadership team and is introducing fresh incentives aimed at winning local support. The company is offering counties and landowners increased compensation tied to participation levels, and even giving landowners the opportunity to share in company profits once project owners are paid.
The redesign would require securing new easements, likely extending the project timeline. Initially slated for completion in 2024, the pipeline now faces at least a two-year delay, with 2026 the earliest possible finish. Despite the overhaul, strong opposition remains, and it is uncertain whether Summit can rally enough landowner participation to move forward with the new route.
—Power bills surge nationwide as grid costs and gas prices fuel uneven increases
Utilities face soaring infrastructure and fuel expenses, leaving some states hit harder than others
Millions of Americans are grappling with sharply higher electricity bills, with prices climbing much faster than inflation in more than half of U.S. states, according to a New York Times report (link) based on new research from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. While President Donald Trump and Democrats blame each other for the surge, the study finds that the causes are more complex — rooted in regional fuel costs, aging infrastructure, and climate-driven grid upgrades.
Regional gaps and grid costs. The Times reports that retail power prices have risen faster than inflation in 26 states over the past six years, but stayed flat or even declined in others. States like Nevada and North Dakota, which have expanded wind and solar energy, have seen little change or declines. California, however, has endured some of the steepest increases — about 34% since 2019 — due largely to wildfire-related expenses that utilities pass to consumers. In the Northeast, heavy dependence on imported natural gas has also driven prices higher.
A key finding, according to the Times, is that utilities are spending far more on “poles and wires” than on generation. Since 2005, investor-owned utilities have nearly tripled spending on transmission and distribution networks as they replace aging infrastructure and harden grids against storms, fires, and heat waves. Those costs, compounded by inflation and supply shortages for grid equipment, are now among the biggest drivers of higher bills.
Renewables’ mixed role. The Times notes that renewable energy is not a primary factor behind rising prices in most states. Regions rich in wind or solar — such as Iowa, South Dakota, and parts of the Southwest — have actually seen inflation-adjusted declines. However, states that have mandated utility purchases of renewable power, including Maine, Maryland, and New York, have faced surcharges that added to costs. Rooftop solar incentives have also contributed to rate increases in places like California and Maine, where non-solar customers shoulder a greater share of grid maintenance.
Other pressures: Gas and data centers. Natural gas remains a crucial driver of regional disparities. The Times highlights that states in the Northeast — where pipeline constraints have kept gas prices high — saw electricity rates spike by more than one-third in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted global fuel markets.
Another emerging factor is the rapid expansion of data centers. In Virginia, where data centers are concentrated, rates have remained steady, as large new users spread grid costs across more customers. But in neighboring states like Maryland, analysts warn that the strain of connecting new facilities could soon push prices higher.
What’s next. Federal forecasters cited by the New York Times expect electricity prices to continue rising through 2026 as natural gas costs rebound and grid investments deepen. Trump administration officials have proposed boosting gas drilling and pipeline construction, while also curbing renewable energy expansion — a mix that analysts say could increase long-term costs. With more than one in four U.S. households unable to pay their full energy bills in 2024, according to Census data, experts warn of a growing affordability crisis. “It’s a perfect storm of misery for low- and middle-income households,” said Mark Wolfe of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, underscoring the mounting political and economic stakes of America’s energy price surge.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Sheep industry petitions USTR for emergency probe into surging lamb imports
American Sheep Industry Association urges Section 201 safeguards as import surge from Australia and New Zealand captures 70% of U.S. market and forces thousands of producers out
The American Sheep Industry Association (ASI) has asked the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to initiate a global safeguard investigation under Sections 201–202 of the Trade Act of 1974, arguing that a flood of imported lamb is inflicting “serious economic injury” on U.S. producers and jeopardizing the long-term viability of the domestic industry.
In a statement, ASI said imports of lamb products jumped 45% between 2020 and 2024 — from 213.6 million pounds to 309.3 million pounds — pushing U.S. market share down by more than nine percentage points. By 2024, imported lamb accounted for roughly 70% of total consumption, with products from Australia and New Zealand often undercutting domestic prices by 10 to 19 percent.
The group’s filing contends that “traditional routes for obtaining trade relief have become unworkable” for the industry’s 100,000 farms and ranches, citing the administrative cost of a formal ITC petition. ASI’s data show that an average of 2,500 sheep operations exited the industry each year from 2017 to 2022, while employment at remaining farms fell 10% between 2022 and 2024 and two major packers have closed since 2020. ASI President Ben Lehfeldt said members “have made it clear that immediate federal action is necessary to restore fair competition and protect America’s sheep producers.”
USTR chief agricultural negotiator nominee Julie Callahan acknowledged the issue in testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, telling Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) that lamb producers are being “outcompeted by imports” and that she would work to ensure they “have a fair shake” if confirmed.
The request follows earlier petitions by R-CALF USA, which sought Section 201 and 232 investigations into lamb, mutton, and beef imports under prior administrations.
—Trump’s trade overhaul leaves nearly half of U.S. imports facing tariffs
A New York Times analysis finds that President Trump’s sweeping use of emergency powers has upended decades of free trade, putting more than $300 billion in goods under new duties — even as the Supreme Court weighs whether those powers were constitutional
Almost half of all goods entering the United States are now subject to tariffs — the highest share in roughly a century — according to an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data published by the New York Times (link). The findings underscore how President Donald Trump has fundamentally reshaped global trade policy during his second term, with sweeping duties now covering nearly every major trading partner.
The Times reported that roughly 46% of imports now face tariffs, up from just one-third before Trump’s inauguration in January 2025. His administration has imposed wave after wave of new levies using emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — the very law whose legality is now being tested at the Supreme Court. If the justices rule against him, much of his trade agenda could be dismantled.
So far this year, the emergency tariffs alone have affected more than $300 billion in imported goods, representing about 29% of total U.S. imports. These are in addition to long-standing tariffs on steel, autos, lumber, and other sectors imposed under Section 232, which are not part of the legal challenge and will remain in effect regardless of the Court’s decision.
Global disparities in impact. The Times analysis highlights that the consequences vary widely by trading partner:
•China remains the most heavily targeted, with its trade-weighted tariff rate exceeding 40%, among the world’s highest. Many of these duties stack on top of preexisting tariffs dating back to Trump’s first term and expanded under President Biden.
•The European Union, which once enjoyed largely duty-free access, now faces tariffs on roughly 60 percent of its exports to the U.S., much of which fall under the IEEPA provisions being challenged.
• Canada and Mexico, by contrast, have largely avoided the new duties thanks to exemptions under the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), even after Trump initially used emergency powers to impose fentanyl- and migration-related tariffs early in 2025.
Strategic exemptions and industry focus. Trump’s trade team has carved out key exemptions to prevent disruption in critical sectors. Ireland’s pharmaceutical exports — a cornerstone of U.S. drug supply — remain largely exempt under a U.S./EU deal capping tariffs at 15%. Likewise, Taiwanese electronics such as smartphones and computers are temporarily shielded from tariffs, though officials say new duties could arrive in 2026.
Meanwhile, countries like Japan and South Korea are being hit hard by automobile tariffs, with about one-third of Japanese exports to the U.S. facing rates as high as 25 percent before recent negotiations lowered them to 15 percent. South Korea is reportedly close to securing a similar reduction.
At stake: Trump’s trade leverage. As the New York Times notes, the president’s use of emergency powers has given him unparalleled leverage to unilaterally rewrite the rules of global commerce — but it now hangs on a single Supreme Court ruling. Should the Court strike down his IEEPA authority, Trump could turn more heavily toward industry-based tariffs under Section 232, tightening his grip on politically sensitive sectors like autos, steel, and lumber.
In short, the United States has undergone a rapid and unprecedented return to protectionism. Whether it endures may depend not on trade negotiators — but on nine justices in Washington.
| CONGRESS |
—Tuberville introduces bill to expand market access for livestock producers
DIRECT Act aims to ease interstate meat sales while maintaining food safety standards
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) has joined Sens. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) to introduce the Direct Interstate Retail Exemption for Certain Transactions (DIRECT) Act, a bill designed to give livestock and poultry producers greater access to national markets.
The legislation would carve out a limited exemption under federal law, allowing small producers and butchers to sell state-inspected meat and poultry products across state lines directly to consumers. Currently, such sales are restricted unless processed in a federally inspected facility. The measure seeks to balance market flexibility with continued adherence to food safety standards, ensuring international trade rules remain intact. “Cutting red tape and providing our cattle and livestock producers with additional avenues to sell their Made-in-the-U.S. products is a win,” Tuberville said. “We must ensure we are putting American farmers and livestock producers first, not last.”
Sen. Marshall added that the bill empowers ranchers to sell “high-quality beef in innovative ways and across state lines,” while Hyde-Smith emphasized that the DIRECT Act supports small processors and consumer choice without jeopardizing safety.
The legislation has drawn strong endorsements from Alabama’s agricultural community. Rick Pate, Alabama’s Agriculture Commissioner, praised Tuberville’s “common-sense” approach, while Alabama Farmers Federation President Jimmy Parnell said the bill “creates new marketing opportunities for farmers while allowing consumers to buy direct from the farm with the added convenience of home delivery.” Erin Beasley of the Alabama Cattlemen’s Association called the measure an “innovative way to meet the continued demand for beef.”
Under the bill, processors and butchers could sell state-inspected meat in normal retail quantities — such as 300 pounds of beef or 100 pounds of pork — to out-of-state consumers through online or direct-to-consumer sales. The legislation would also ensure food safety oversight remains consistent with the Federal Meat Inspection Act and Poultry Products Inspection Act and would prohibit exports of state-inspected meat to preserve U.S. trade equivalency agreements.
The DIRECT Act has been endorsed by the Alabama Department of Agriculture & Industries, the Alabama Farmers Federation, and the Alabama Cattlemen’s Association.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Pelosi bids farewell after four decades in Congress
First female Speaker closes a historic chapter in U.S. politics
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)announced Thursday she will not seek re-election, marking the end of a 38-year career that reshaped Congress and the Democratic Party. The California Democrat, who made history as the first woman to serve as Speaker of the House, leaves behind a legacy defined by landmark legislation, political resilience, and unmatched fundraising prowess.
Though Pelosi stepped down from leadership in 2023, she remained an influential adviser and key figure within her caucus. At 85, her decision follows the passage of California’s Proposition 50 — a Democratic redistricting victory she helped secure — and caps a career that saw her navigate wars, impeachments, and pandemic recovery efforts.
Pelosi, who entered Congress in 1987 after raising five children, rose through the ranks on the Appropriations and Intelligence Committees, building a reputation for discipline, strategy, and fundraising skill. Her leadership style made her both admired and divisive, but Democrats across generations hailed her departure as the end of an era. “Nancy Pelosi is an iconic, legendary, transformational figure,” said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
—Jared Golden’s exit opens a key battleground in New England
Maine Democrat cites threats and political fatigue as reasons for leaving Congress
Maine Democratic Representative Jared Golden announced he will not seek re-election in 2026, setting off a political scramble in one of the nation’s most closely watched swing districts and handing Republicans a prime opportunity to flip a seat in New England.
Golden, 43, revealed his decision in an op-ed published in the Bangor Daily News, saying he intends to step away from politics in part because of escalating threats of violence and the toll of the increasingly polarized climate in Washington. “Public service shouldn’t come at the cost of one’s safety or family,” he wrote, while urging voters to “seek unity and respect even amid disagreement.”
The three-term lawmaker represents Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, a sprawling, largely rural region that President Donald Trump carried by roughly 10 percentage points in 2024. Golden’s ability to hold the seat in past elections had made him an outlier — a moderate Democrat who split with his party on key votes, including opposition to President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan and support for portions of Trump’s trade agenda.
With his retirement, Republicans now see a clear path to reclaiming ME-2, a district that has trended red in presidential races but remained blue in House contests thanks to Golden’s personal brand and independent streak. The seat is likely to become one of the most competitive in the 2026 midterm elections, and national party committees are already eyeing it as a top-tier target.
Golden’s departure underscores the challenges facing centrist lawmakers in today’s Congress, where ideological division and personal security threats have pushed several members from both parties to call it quits. His exit also leaves Democrats with few strongholds in New England outside coastal urban centers, heightening pressure on the party to recruit a candidate who can appeal to the region’s working-class voters.
Republicans, meanwhile, are expected to rally behind former state legislator Dale Crafts and other potential contenders who ran in previous cycles. Trump’s commanding performance in the district in 2024 could further energize the GOP base.
Golden closed his letter by expressing optimism about Maine’s political culture despite his decision to leave Congress: “We are not defined by Washington’s dysfunction,” he wrote. “I will always believe in the decency and independence of the people of Maine.”
His retirement ensures that Maine’s 2nd District will again serve as a national bellwether, testing whether Democrats can still compete in the rural corners of America that once anchored their coalition.
—Trump looks past GOP losses toward 2026 midterms
After a bruising night of Republican losses from coast to coast, the president and party strategists turn the page to a high-stakes 2026 midterm cycle that could once again redefine control of Congress — and the race for 2028
President Donald Trump is shifting focus to the 2026 midterm elections after Republicans suffered major defeats across several key states on Tuesday night. “…AND SO IT BEGINS!” he wrote on Truth Social, moments after the Associated Press called California’s redistricting referendum in favor of Democrats — a result that capped what observers described as a disastrous night for the GOP.
Republicans lost contests in Georgia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, with Democrats in Virginia projected to secure their largest House of Delegates majority since the George H.W. Bush era. Even Trump’s quasi-endorsed New York City candidate fell to a democratic socialist.
In response, National Journal Hotline launched a special edition marking the formal start of its 2026 midterm coverage. The report outlines the forces shaping what could become the seventh consecutive “change election”—a modern record that has seen the Senate, House, or White House switch hands in every cycle since 2014. Among the central questions:
• Will the 2026 midterms see a seventh change election in a row?
• What forces are influencing the Democratic coalition?
• Can Republicans count on Latino voters?
• Which races are most likely to flip?
• Has President Trump learned his lessons from past midterms?
• Which 2028 prospects have the most to gain — or lose — in the midterms?
With both parties reeling from rapid political turnover and shifting congressional maps, Hotline editors say their expanded coverage — through special reports, newsletters, and podcasts — will track the evolving power balance. As Trump put it in his post-election message, “and so it begins.”
—Republicans sue to block California’s new House maps
GOP challenges Proposition 50, alleging racial bias in redistricting that could shift five seats to Democrats
Hours after California voters approved Proposition 50 — a ballot measure redrawing congressional maps to help Democrats flip as many as five House seats — Republicans filed a federal lawsuit to block the new districts.
The suit, lodged Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California, argues that the maps violate the Constitution by improperly using race as a factor to favor Hispanic voters. GOP plaintiffs are asking the court to prevent the maps from taking effect.
Proposition 50, championed by Governor Gavin Newsom, suspended maps drawn by California’s independent commission and replaced them with new districts aimed at offsetting gerrymanders approved in Republican-led states at President Trump’s urging. Newsom defended the measure as a fair response to national redistricting trends, while Trump denounced it on social media as “rigged.”
The case echoes the pending Louisiana v. Callais before the U.S. Supreme Court, which could sharply limit the use of race in redistricting. GOP attorney Mark Meuser told party members in September that the Louisiana decision could bolster the challenge to California’s new maps.
Analysts at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California noted that Proposition 50’s maps create the same number of majority-Latino districts — 16 — as the previous plan.
Legal scholars say the courts are unlikely to halt the maps before the 2026 midterms, but the outcome of the Supreme Court case could have sweeping effects on redistricting nationwide.
—Doug Sosnik: What to watch in the 2026 and 2028 elections
Veteran Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik outlines ten factors shaping U.S. politics as the Trump era nears its end and a generational shift looms ahead
Sosnik warns that the next two election cycles will redefine American politics, as structural challenges, voter realignment, and generational change reshape both parties.
In his Nov. 6 memo (Link), Sosnik argues that while Democrats are buoyed by anti-Trump sentiment, they face steep institutional barriers, and the 2028 race — marking the end of The Age of Trump — will determine whether the party can seize a fleeting moment of opportunity before the political map shifts decisively toward Republicans.
Summary for the 10 Points
1. Historical Trends No Longer Predict Midterm Outcomes
Sosnik argues that traditional midterm election patterns—where the president’s party loses seats—no longer apply due to political realignment and nationalized voting patterns.
2. Democrats Face Structural Barriers to Retaking Congress
Despite favorable polling, Democrats must overcome redistricting disadvantages and a limited number of competitive districts to regain control of the House and Senate.
3. Trump’s Campaign-Style Governance Strategy Is Failing
The White House’s focus on dominating the news cycle over substantive governance is alienating voters concerned about the economy, Sosnik writes.
4. Midterm Results Won’t Predict 2028 Presidential Outcome
Success in 2026 won’t necessarily translate into victory in 2028, as off-year and presidential electorates differ sharply in composition and turnout.
5. Upcoming Elections Will Deepen Political Radicalization
Nationalized politics and partisan incentives are pushing both parties toward their bases, diminishing incentives for bipartisan compromise.
6. 2028 Will Mark the End of the Trump Era
Sosnik forecasts that 2028 will close “The Age of Trump,” as his unique coalition cannot easily transfer to other Republican candidates.
7. A Generational Shift in Leadership Is Coming
After decades dominated by aging leaders, Sosnik says the 2028 election will usher in younger political figures, reflecting generational turnover in Congress and the electorate.
8. Israel Will Emerge as a Defining 2028 Issue
Public support for Israel has eroded, particularly among young and Democratic voters, creating major political and intraparty challenges.
9. Trump Will Delay the 2028 GOP Nomination Fight
Trump will seek to maintain control of the Republican Party and avoid lame-duck status by postponing the next presidential primary battles.
10. The Stakes for Democrats in 2028 Are Enormous
A loss in 2028 could leave Democrats out of power for 12 of 16 years and deepen their disadvantage ahead of a 2032 electoral map expected to favor Republicans.
—Mamdani’s post-victory moves rattle New York’s business elite
Mayor-elect taps antitrust firebrand Lina Khan to lead transition as Wall Street voices caution over progressive agenda
Fresh off his sweeping win, New York mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is wasting no time signaling the priorities of his incoming administration — and unsettling parts of the city’s corporate establishment in the process.
A key early move was naming Lina Khan, the former FTC commissioner known for her hard-line antitrust stance, as chair of his transition team. At a press event, Khan framed the election as “a clear mandate for change” and a rebuke of “outsize corporate power and money” in politics.
Mamdani, who campaigned on a platform of taxing the wealthy and tackling inequality, told the New York Times that his supporters “are hungry for a politics of consistency,” describing the tax system as emblematic of “the many ways in which working people have been betrayed.”
Still, the mayor-elect struck a note of outreach, saying he planned to meet with business leaders such as Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase to show that his affordability agenda could also “benefit business across the city.” Dimon told CNN he had called Mamdani to open dialogue but warned that “no city has divine rights to success.”
Meanwhile, billionaire Bill Ackman, who bankrolled opposition to Mamdani’s campaign, publicly urged cooperation even as he shared bleak forecasts for New York’s business climate under the new administration — underscoring the tense balance Mamdani faces between investor skepticism and his progressive base.
| NOMINATIONS |
— Trump names former Rep. Stevan Pearce to head Bureau of Land Management
Pearce’s nomination signals an emphasis on expanded grazing access and reduced conservation designations
President Donald Trump has nominated former Rep. Stevan Pearce (R-N.M.) to serve as director of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), a move that underscores the administration’s push to prioritize agricultural and ranching interests on public lands. During his tenure in Congress, Pearce opposed measures to expand federal land protections, including efforts to establish large national monuments and the 2008 law that created the National Landscape Conservation System within the BLM.
The BLM, which oversees roughly one-eighth of U.S. land, is a central agency in Trump’s plan to rebuild the nation’s cattle herd. The administration aims to increase grazing opportunities on government-owned lands, especially in currently unused or non-leased areas, marking a significant shift from the conservation-first policies of prior administrations.
| TRANSPORTATION/LOGISTICS |
—FAA to cut flights at 40 major airports if gov’t shutdown persists
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warns of “surgical” reductions amid staffing crisis
The Trump administration will begin reducing flight operations at 40 major U.S. airports as early as Friday if Congress fails to reach a deal to end the ongoing government shutdown, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced Wednesday. FAA is expected to list where it plans to scale back flights.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will order airlines to cut 10% of scheduled flights in high-volume markets, though the specific airports affected have not yet been identified. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the agency will meet with airline executives to coordinate a “collaborative” and “prescriptive” drawdown aimed at maintaining safety amid mounting air-traffic staffing shortages. “We are going to proactively make decisions that keep the airspace safe,” Duffy said.
The move reflects intensifying strain on the nation’s aviation system as unpaid air traffic controllers, deemed essential workers during the shutdown, struggle with missed paychecks. Duffy acknowledged that some controllers have begun calling in sick or taking outside jobs to meet financial obligations. “I’m not naive to understand that they’re trying to figure out how they meet their daily obligations,” he said. “Because of that, we’ve seen staffing pressures throughout our airspace.”
According to a CNN analysis, more than 400 staffing shortages have been reported at FAA facilities since the shutdown began — more than four times the level seen a year ago. The resulting disruptions have already led to increased delays and cancellations across several major hubs, with more expected if the shutdown drags on into the weekend.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Unsettled weather for the Pacific Northwest and Northern California,
including areas of heavy rain for the coastal ranges and heavy snowfall over the higher elevations of the Cascades through early Friday… …Some potential for severe weather will exist on Friday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on down to the central Gulf Coast… …Dry conditions will continue across much of the Southwest U.S. through the Southern Plains… …Much colder temperatures to arrive by late Friday and Saturday across the Upper Midwest.
