Rollins: Farmer Aid Plan Next Week, Paid in January
December interest rate cut bet is back on | Hassett reportedly favored new Fed chair | Rollins gives extensive remarks on cattle industry issues in podcast interview
Link: Rollins on Food Prices, Beef Supply, China Soybean Deals, `Farmer Aid Package
Link: Confused? Mixed Signals? You Are Not Alone…
Link: Bessent: Trump and Xi Could Hold Four High-Level Meetings in 2026
Link: USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer to Lead Mizzou’s FAPRI as Pat Westhoff
Concludes Influential 15-Year Tenure
Link: China’s Beef Import Pullback Sends Ripples Through Brazil’s Meat Sector
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 21
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 21
Today’s Updates:
TOP STORIES
— Markets will trade normal hours today (Nov. 26) ahead of the Thursday Thanksgiving
holiday; U.S. gov’t offices and markets closed Thursday; abbreviated hours Friday
— Rollins on food prices, beef supply, China soybean deals, and farm aid package
— China buys at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans following presidential call
— Deere sees 2026 as bottom of large ag cycle as profits slip.
— Rollins opens up on cattle markets, border shutdown, packers, and property rights
in podcast interview
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global markets mixed; U.S. Dow up nearly 300 points
— Equities yesterday: All three major U.S. indexes closed higher
— BEA reshuffles economic data calendar amid post-shutdown backlogs
— AI boom lifts Dell while surging memory costs weigh on HP
— U.S. durable goods orders outpace expectations in September
— Fed’s data dilemma deepens ahead of December meeting
— Hassett rises to the top as Trump nears Fed chair decision
AG MARKETS
— Ag markets yesterday: Mixed trade across grains, oilseeds, cotton, and livestock
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Wednesday: Oil markets hold steady as peace talks and oversupply fears cap gains
— Tuesday: Oil slips on signs of possible Russia/Ukraine peace talks
TRADE POLICY
— China’s thrifty turn leaves European wines gathering dust
CHINA
— House China panel presses FTC to mandate online country-of-origin labels
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Blizzard conditions near Lake Superior; rain-to-snow Great Lakes
system; Pacific Northwest storms; colder Thanksgiving across the East
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 26, 2025
Up Front — Markets: Normal trading hours today; full U.S. government and markets closed Thursday; abbreviated session Friday across futures, stocks, and bonds.— USDA Secretary Rollins on prices & farm aid: Rollins highlights falling Thanksgiving food costs, tight beef supplies, China’s renewed soybean buying, and previews a new USDA “bridge” support program to be announced next week and paid in January.— China soybean purchases: China snapped up 10–15 U.S. soybean cargoes worth roughly $300 million after the Trump/Xi call, paying steep premiums over CBOT futures.— Deere outlook: Deere profits fell on weak margins and tariff pressures; sees 2026 as the bottom of the large-ag cycle with modest recovery ahead.— Rollins cattle-industry podcast: Rollins digs into market volatility, the Mexico screwworm border closure, packer concentration, USDA’s beef plan, and property-rights fights reshaping rural America.FINANCIAL MARKETS— Equities today: Global markets mixed; Fed-cut expectations rising; Dow up nearly 300 points this morning.— Equities yesterday: Major U.S. indexes rose sharply — Dow +1.43%, S&P +0.91%, Nasdaq +0.67%.— BEA data delays: Shutdown backlogs push 3Q GDP release to Dec. 23; PCE inflation report and trade data still lack new release dates.— Dell vs. HP: AI demand boosts Dell’s earnings and guidance; HP hit by surging memory-chip prices and weak printer sales.— Durable goods: September durable-goods orders beat expectations, showing broad manufacturing resilience despite cooling transportation demand.— Fed divide: Data offers little clarity; policymakers split on inflation vs. labor-market risks ahead of the expected December rate cut.— Hassett for Fed chair: Kevin Hassett now seen as Trump’s leading pick for Fed chair, aligning with the president’s push for faster rate cuts.AG MARKETS— Agriculture markets yesterday: Grains mostly higher; feeder cattle firm; live cattle and lean hogs slightly weaker.ENERGY— Wednesday oil: Crude steadies after one-month lows as traders weigh oversupply risks and Russia–Ukraine peace efforts.— Tuesday oil: Prices slipped on signs of diplomatic movement toward a Russia-Ukraine framework that could eventually ease sanctions.TRADE POLICY— China wine slump (SCMP): China’s consumption downturn is hitting European wine exporters hard, with imports down more than 70% from peak levels and domestic wineries gaining share.CHINA— House China panel on FTC labels: Bipartisan congressional leaders urge the FTC to require clear online country-of-origin labels to help consumers avoid China-linked goods and back U.S. manufacturing.WEATHER— NWS outlook: Blizzard conditions around Lake Superior; rain turning to snow across the Great Lakes; Pacific Northwest mountain snow; eastern U.S. warmth gives way to colder, windy Thanksgiving conditions. Top Stories—Markets will trade normal hours today (Nov. 26) ahead of the Thursday Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. gov’t offices will be closed Thursday and U.S. markets will also be closed. Both will reopen on Friday, but it will be an abbreviated trading day with grain and livestock futures markets closing at 11:05 p.m. ET, energy and metals futures will close at 12:45 p.m. ET, stock markets will close at 1 p.m. ET and the bond market will halt trading at 2 p.m. ET. —USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on food prices, beef supply, China soybean deals, and the new farm aid packageA Mornings with Maria Q&A on affordability, cattle herd rebuilding, U.S./China trade, and USDA’s farmer aid plansRollins joined Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria for a wide-ranging conversation on food prices, beef supply pressures, China’s renewed soybean buying, and the administration’s forthcoming farm aid package. In a moment when Thanksgiving costs are falling but beef inflation remains a top concern for American families, Rollins detailed the factors behind today’s market swings — from cattle-herd rebuilding and the Mexico screwworm shutdown to shifting global demand and new U.S. trade deals. She also previewed USDA’s new “bridge” support program for farmers, which she said would be announced next week and be paid in January. She also explained President Trump’s focus on affordability, and outlined how the administration plans to diversify agricultural exports while strengthening America’s food and nutrition programs. Link for details.—China bought at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans worth around $300 million in contracts signed since Tuesday, two traders with knowledge of the deals told Reuters, a day after the presidents of both countries spoke on the phone. One trader said China bought about 12 cargoes, while another estimated the volume at 10–15. Each cargo is about 60,000 to 65,000 metric tons. China paid around $2.30 per bushel over the January Chicago futures contract SF26 for shipments from Gulf terminals and a premium of $2.20 per bushel from Pacific Northwest ports, well above the prices for Brazilian soybeans, which are around $1.8 per bushel over the January CBOT futures, traders said. —Deere sees 2026 as bottom of large ag cycle as profits slipWeaker margins and tariff pressures weigh on earnings, but company signals recovery ahead Deere & Co. reported a decline in fourth-quarter profit as soft margins on tractors and combines and higher production costs — including tariff impacts — weighed on results. Net income for the quarter came in at $1.06 billion ($3.93 per share), down from $1.24 billion ($4.55 per share) a year earlier. For fiscal year 2025, Deere posted $5.027 billion in net income, a drop from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024. Quote of note: “This past year brought its share of challenges and uncertainty, but thanks to the structural improvements we’ve made and the diverse customer segments and geographies we serve, we were able to achieve our best results yet for this point in the cycle,” said John May, chairman and CEO of John Deere. “Our continued commitment to delivering customer value and focusing on operational efficiency enabled us to remain resilient.” Deere forecast fiscal 2026 net income of $4.0 billion to $4.75 billion, and May signaled that the downturn in the large agriculture market is nearing its floor. “Looking ahead, we believe 2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle,” he said. While margin pressures from tariffs and sector-wide challenges remain, he emphasized that disciplined inventory management, cost control, and expected growth in small ag & turf and construction & forestry will help the company navigate the transition as conditions begin to improve. In the quarter, production & precision agriculture sales rose on stronger shipment volumes and favorable pricing. However, operating profit declined as higher production costs and higher tariffs more than offset those shipment gains. Deere’s shares were down 4% in pre-market trading. The results underscore the difficult position for farm equipment manufacturers in the current agricultural economy and their forecasts for earnings in 2026 signal additional pressure is ahead. —Rollins opens up on cattle markets, border shutdown, packers, and property rights in wide-ranging podcast interviewIn a candid conversation with producers Jim Mundorf and Shad Sullivan, the USDA Secretary lays out her views on market turmoil, the New World screwworm border closure, packer concentration, USDA’s beef plan, and the broader fight over land, ranching, and rural America’s future USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins sat down with cattle producers Jim Mundorf and Shad Sullivan for a special Lonesome Report podcast interview, where the trio dug into the state of the U.S. cattle industry. In a wide-ranging conversation, they tackled sharp recent market volatility, the continued closure of the Mexican border over New World screwworm, the Justice Department’s investigation into beef packer concentration, USDA’s new beef plan to rebuild capacity and support ranchers, and broader fights over private property rights, land control, and the future of FFA and rural youth. Link to podcast. 1. Market Volatility & Producer AnxietyKey points:• Rollins acknowledges severe market volatility over the last ~40 days, including the steep drop in January feeder cattle futures (≈$80/cwt from the recent high).• She provides benchmark numbers:Year ago: ~262Recent high: ~378Now: ~304 → Still up ~17% year-over-year, but sharply down from the peak.• Rollins attributes volatility to:Market adjustments after unusually high highs.Tariff-related uncertainty.Lean trim import dynamics.The Mexican border closure.Record domestic and global beef demand.• She stresses that President Trump is “100% with rural America,” understands the strain, and wants to reduce volatility.• Rollins notes that the conservative, rural base feels rattled, but insists that the administration’s loyalty to ranchers has not changed. 2. Mexican Border Closure & New World Screwworm Key points:• Rollins says closing the ports last spring was essential to protect the U.S. herd; screwworm could devastate livestock as it did in the 1950s–60s.• Roughly 1 million head of cattle normally cross annually during the relevant period; the closure has hit Mexico and U.S. southern producers hard.• Reopening is not imminent, but:USDA is more confident containment is improving.No date is set.When reopening happens, it will be gradual, not all eight ports at once.USDA expects the Arizona port to reopen first, being farthest from screwworm presence.• Expansion of sterile-fly production:Edinburg, TX facility phase one = distribution only (spring 2026 target).Full production facility is about a year out.USDA exploring temporary mobile production units that can relocate to outbreak areas—announcement expected in 2–4 weeks.• Rollins says she understands producer fears that reopening could drop markets another 10–20%, and USDA is weighing market impacts alongside biosecurity. 3. Beef Packer Concentration, DOJ Investigation & Plant Closure Key points:• Rollins brings her background in antitrust law and argues packer concentration is a national security issue, not just an economics issue.• Notes four companies control 80–85% of beef packing; two are foreign-owned.• She supports DOJ’s investigation, saying USDA will monitor closely and push for reforms.• On the Lexington, Nebraska plant closure, she notes:Capacity loss (≈5,000 head/day; 3,000 jobs) adds short-term volatility.But nearby plants were under capacity and may absorb volume.USDA is exploring using the closure to create space for new local/regional processors.• Rollins discusses:Movable/mobile processing units.Grants that help small plants modestly increase capacity (“a $60,000 grinder could take a plant from 1 head/week to 6–10”).• Emphasizes:“We are not against big packers; we are against centralized control.” Expanding regional packing is central to rebuilding cattle country and reversing the loss of 150,000 ranches since 2017. 4. USDA Beef Plan: Rebuilding Capacity & Strengthening Ranchers Key pillars highlighted:• Opening 5 million more acres in the West for grazing; aligning USDA and DOI permitting.• Real ‘Product of USA’ labeling for cattle born, raised, and slaughtered in the U.S.• Incentives and grants for small/medium processors.• Expanding access for beginning ranchers (e.g., adjusting age-of-protection programs).• Reworking dietary guidelines & school-lunch/SNAP procurement to increase beef demand from U.S. producers.• Integrating the Make America Healthy Again initiative with beef promotion.• Building a pipeline of new ranchers, including veterans.• Plan was shaped heavily by rapid, solutions-focused input from real ranchers in western roundtables. 5. Private Property Rights, Federal/State Authority & Eminent Domain Key points:• Rollins frames private property rights as the foundation of the Constitution and the core battle underlying climate policy fights.• Discusses:The Kelo v. New London Supreme Court case as the turning point in her career.USDA involvement in the Modoc/Kings cases; pledges to take on additional families facing eminent domain or land grabs.Recent success helping the Henry family in New Jersey fend off land seizure for an “affordable housing” project.• Emphasizes:This is a local, state, and federal issue—requires coordinated legal and political reform.Future policy change depends on elevating private property rights as an election issue.Courts must be used more aggressively by property-rights advocates.• Adds that the Trump administration will use every tool available (DOJ engagement, funding leverage, etc.) to protect families. 6. Climate Policy, Land Control & the “War on Beef” Key points:• Rollins directly connects anti-beef climate narratives to efforts to control land and natural resources.• She asserts:Ranchers are being squeezed off the land.Policies limiting grazing, land use, or beef production ultimately aim to constrain private land ownership.• Rollins sees reversing land loss as essential to preserving “what is great about America.”• Notes the administration opposes climate frameworks that frame cattle as a climate threat. 7. Long-Term Structural Reform: Courts, Congress & Grassroots Key points:• Rollins argues lasting solutions require:Strengthening court precedents protecting property rights.State-level legislative change.Citizens mobilizing through C4s and grassroots networks.• Believes the current Supreme Court may soon be the most property-rights-oriented in modern history—cases need to be pushed there. 8. Youth, FFA, & Moving the FFA Charter from Education to USDA Key points:• Rollins highlights FFA as one of the most important youth organizations in the world.• She wants FFA to stay grounded in faith, family, tradition, and leadership.• Announced that the FFA charter is moving from the Department of Education to USDA, where she believes it aligns better with agricultural values.• Says USDA will support strengthening FFA’s mission and keeping it rooted in servant leadership and American agricultural heritage. Summary The interview covered five big themes:Market volatility and reassurance that Trump and USDA remain firmly aligned with cattle producers.Border closure and the complex biosecurity/economic balance in determining when and how ports reopen.Beef packer concentration and DOJ’s investigation—paired with a push for regional/local processing.USDA’s new Beef Plan, aimed at long-term rebuilding of the U.S. cattle industry.Private property rights, eminent domain abuses, and resisting climate-driven land control policies.Youth and FFA, including the FFA charter shift to USDA. Rollins repeatedly emphasizes that ranchers are central to national security, America’s food system, and the administration’s priorities—and that USDA is pursuing both short-term fixes and deep structural reforms. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets traded mixed as soft U.S. economic data strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, while optimism over potential progress in Ukraine peace talks and continued reaction to Britain’s new budget shaped sentiment. U.S. Dow currently up nearly 300 points.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. 25 | Point Difference from Nov. 24 | % Difference from Nov. 24 |
| Dow | 47,112.45 | +664.18 | +1.43% |
| Nasdaq | 23,025.59 | +153.59 | +0.67% |
| S&P 500 | 6,765.88 | +60.76 | +0.91% |
—BEA reshuffles economic data calendar amid post-shutdown backlogs
Third-quarter GDP to arrive as “initial estimate” on dec. 23; key inflation and trade reports still without dates
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is continuing to revise its release schedule as it works through the backlog created by the recent government shutdown. The agency said it will now issue a 3Q 2025 GDP report labeled as an “initial estimate” on Dec. 23, replacing what would have been the second estimate previously scheduled for today (Nov. 26). The third estimate, originally slated for Dec. 19, has been removed from the calendar.
Separately, the critical Personal Income and Outlays report for November — which includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index — will also be delayed. BEA confirmed it will not be released on Dec. 19, and no new date has been announced.
The schedule disruption extends to trade data as well. The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for October (previously Dec. 4) and the November report (previously Jan. 8, 2026) will be rescheduled. Compiled jointly by BEA and the Census Bureau, the agencies have not indicated when September’s trade data — already significantly delayed — will be published.
—AI boom lifts Dell while surging memory costs weigh on HP
Dell rides accelerating AI server demand; HP hit by chip prices and weak printer sales
Artificial intelligence is pushing Dell’s business sharply higher while creating costly headwinds for HP, reflecting a widening split in the PC and enterprise hardware market.
Dell reported October-quarter earnings of $2.59 a share, beating Wall Street expectations, with revenue of $27 billion roughly in line. Stronger-than-expected guidance of $31–$32 billion underscores accelerating AI demand from major customers including Elon Musk’s xAI and CoreWeave. Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said momentum is building into the second half of 2025, arguing Dell is “winning in AI” thanks to its ability to engineer high-performance systems, deploy large clusters quickly and offer global support.
HP, meanwhile, is being squeezed by soaring memory-chip prices, which CEO Enrique Lores said will drag fiscal-year results by about 30 cents a share. While fiscal Q4 adjusted earnings of 93 cents and $14.64 billion in revenue topped forecasts, the outlook disappointed. Personal-systems revenue rose 8% to $10.4 billion — helped by AI PCs and Windows 11 upgrades — but printer sales fell 4% to $4.3 billion as companies divert budgets toward AI rather than office hardware.
Looking ahead, HP plans to cut 4,000–6,000 jobs by 2028 to offset rising costs. It expects fiscal Q1 earnings of 73–81 cents a share and full-year earnings of $2.90–$3.20, both below analyst estimates.
—U.S. durable goods orders outpace expectations in September
Core categories firm as transportation demand moderates
U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.5% month-over-month in September 2025, topping expectations for a 0.3% gain and building on an upwardly revised 3.0% increase in August. The report shows continued resilience in core manufacturing activity even as transportation orders cooled from August’s surge.
Transportation equipment orders increased 0.4% — a sharp pullback from the previous month’s 8.0% jump — with mixed contributions across categories. Vehicle orders rose 0.4% (down from +0.6%), while defense aircraft orders climbed 30.9%, following August’s extraordinarily strong 48.3% gain.
Gains were broad-based across other major manufacturing sectors:
• Electrical equipment, appliances & components: +1.5% (vs. +0.6%)
• Primary metals: +1.4% (vs. +0.5%)
• Computers & electronic products: +0.5% (vs. –1.1%)
• Fabricated metal products: +0.5% (unchanged from August)
• Machinery: +0.1% (vs. +2.2%)
Stripping out more volatile components, core durable goods held firm:
• Ex-transportation orders: +0.6% (after +0.5% in August)
• Ex-defense orders: +0.1% (after +1.9% prior)
The September data suggests underlying manufacturing demand remains steady heading into Q4, even as transportation-related swings continue to distort monthly headline readings.
—Fed’s data dilemma deepens ahead of December meeting
Officials Split on Whether Inflation or Labor Weakness Is the Bigger Risk
The latest batch of delayed economic data is unlikely to shift Federal Reserve officials’ views ahead of the December FOMC policy meeting, but it underscores an unusually sharp divide inside the central bank over whether above-target inflation or emerging labor-market softness is the greater threat.
September’s data dump, delayed by the shutdown, offered little clarity. Producer prices rose 0.3%, reversing August’s 0.1% decline, while core PPI edged up just 0.1%, softer than August’s revised 0.3% gain. Economists expect core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to rise 0.2% to 0.3% for the month — moderate, but still leaving annual core inflation around 2.8%, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Retail sales also cooled. Headline September sales increased 0.2%, well below August’s 0.6% gain and short of expectations. Excluding autos, building materials, and restaurants, sales slipped 0.1%, signaling rising strain on lower- and middle-income households.
Growth readings are mixed: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model pegs Q3 real growth at 4.2%, while the New York Fed’s Nowcast shows a more modest 2.3% — above trend but telling different stories about economic momentum.
What to watch: The upcoming Fed Beige Book may offer more useful signals. Economists expect muted activity across regions, with attention on whether firms are absorbing tariff costs or passing them along. LPL’s Jeff Roach is watching for signs of increased cost-pressure resistance, while Citi’s Veronica Clark says any rise in layoffs could prove pivotal as policymakers weigh whether to deliver the expected quarter-point cut in December.
—Hassett rises to the top as Trump nears Fed chair decision
NEC director’s close alignment with Trump’s rate-cutting agenda (and Treasury Secretary Bessent) makes him the leading contender — but the president’s unpredictability looms over the final call
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve, Bloomberg reported, citing advisers and allies of President Donald Trump familiar with the search. As the administration enters the final weeks of the selection process, momentum has shifted sharply toward Hassett — a longtime Trump confidant whose views on aggressive interest-rate cuts align closely with the president’s own goals for reshaping the central bank.
Hassett’s potential nomination would install a trusted figure at an institution Trump has repeatedly clashed with, especially over what he sees as excessively cautious rate policy under Chair Jerome Powell. Hassett has openly said he would already be cutting rates based on current economic data and has criticized the Fed for losing control of inflation earlier in the pandemic.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the vetting process, has interviewed nearly a dozen candidates since the summer, narrowing the field to five finalists: Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder. Final interviews wrap up this week, with selected contenders set to meet with Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Vice President JD Vance.
Still, Trump’s unpredictability remains a major caveat. Advisers caution that no personnel decision is final until Trump announces it publicly, a sentiment underscored by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who said “nobody actually knows what President Trump will do until he does it.”
Trump has teased that he already knows his choice and could announce it before Christmas — a timeline Bessent affirmed on CNBC.
Hassett has said he would accept the job if offered, telling Fox News: “I want to serve my country and I want to serve my president… We’ll see how it goes.”
If selected, Hassett would step into a politically charged environment, with the Fed divided on inflation and labor-market risks and a December rate decision shaping up as a potential split vote. Analysts note that Hassett could face challenges securing support inside the Federal Open Market Committee, with some seeing him as more vulnerable to political pressure than other candidates.
The administration is preparing to fill a slate of leadership roles at the central bank: a new 14-year governor term beginning Feb. 1; the Fed chair position itself, expiring in May 2026; and possibly an additional board vacancy if Powell opts to step down entirely.
The S&P 500 and Treasury notes and bonds rallied yesterday after the Hassett report came out, as investors cheered the idea of a more dovish Fed chair. This morning, traders have put the odds of a rate cut next month at 82%, up from 27% a week ago.
Kevin Hassett, a close economic adviser to President Trump, has reportedly emerged as a front-runner to be the next Fed chair. Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times
| AG MARKETS |
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov. 25 | Change vs Nov. 24 |
| Corn | Mar | 4.38 1/4 | +1 1/2 |
| Soybeans | Jan | 11.24 3/4 | +1 1/2 |
| Soybean Meal | Mar | 326.10 | +2.00 |
| Soybean Oil | Mar | 51.16 | +0.12 |
| SRW Wheat | Mar | 5.38 1/4 | +4 1/2 |
| HRW Wheat | Mar | 5.28 1/4 | +5 3/4 |
| Spring Wheat | Mar | 4.80 3/4 | +4 3/4 |
| Cotton | Mar | 64.23 | +0.23 |
| Live Cattle | Feb | 207.325 | -0.20 |
| Feeder Cattle | Jan | 307.075 | +2.10 |
| Lean Hogs | Feb | 79.00 | -0.175 |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Wednesday: Oil markets hold steady as peace talks and oversupply fears cap gains
Crude stabilizes after one-month lows as traders weigh Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, sanctions risks, and a bearish 2026 supply outlook
Oil prices held firm on Wednesday after sliding to a one-month low in the previous session, with markets balancing concerns about oversupply against signs of movement toward a Russia-Ukraine peace framework.
Brent crude futures rose 13 cents to $62.61 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 19 cents to $58.14.
Analysts say the tone remains soft, with investors increasingly pricing in an oversupplied 2026 and no convincing demand catalyst to offset it.
Both Brent and WTI fell 89 cents on Tuesday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told European leaders he was prepared to advance a U.S.-backed peace framework, with only a few issues still unresolved. If finalized, the agreement could unwind Western restrictions on Russian energy exports, potentially driving WTI toward $55, some analysts predict.
President Donald Trump has directed U.S. representatives to meet separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian officials, while Kyiv officials say Zelenskiy may travel to the U.S. in the coming days to finalize a deal.
Sanctions enforcement has tightened across the U.S., Britain and Europe, and India’s purchases of Russian crude are set to hit a three-year low in December.
On the supply front, OPEC+ is expected to keep output unchanged at its Sunday meeting, according to three sources. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said it resumed loadings overnight after a temporary shutdown caused by a Ukrainian drone strike.
In the U.S., crude inventories fell last week even as fuel stocks rose, API data showed. Official Energy Information Administration figures are due at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
—Tuesday: Oil slips on signs of possible Russia/Ukraine peace talks
Market weighs diplomatic momentum, fragile battlefield conditions, and the prospect of unwinding sanctions
Oil prices drifted lower Tuesday as traders reacted to signals that U.S.-led diplomatic efforts toward ending the Russia-Ukraine war may be gaining traction. Brent settled at $62.48, down 89 cents, while WTI fell to $57.95, also down 89 cents, as markets assessed how even early movement toward a negotiated framework could eventually ease restrictions on Russian energy flows.
Ukrainian officials indicated President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may travel to the United States in the coming days to continue discussions with the Trump administration, raising the possibility that a conceptual outline for talks could emerge. The prospect of progress has already prompted speculation about how quickly Western sanctions might unwind if an agreement is reached — potentially allowing additional Russian barrels into a market that is otherwise bracing for a significant surplus in 2026.
Still, the trajectory remains highly uncertain. Moscow reiterated that any settlement must align with its strategic objectives, and fresh Russian missile strikes on Kyiv underscored the fragility of the moment, limiting some of crude’s downside by reinforcing the risk that diplomacy could stall. Analysts stressed that even with some diplomatic momentum, both sides would face politically difficult concessions.
Broader fundamentals continue to pressure prices. Several banks now forecast a widening supply surplus through next year, with global output expected to outpace demand by roughly 2 million barrels per day in 2026. A peace deal, if achieved, could open the door for Russia to restore production closer to its full OPEC+ quota.
Sanctions have already forced trade-flow adjustments, including reduced Russian-crude purchases by some Indian refiners amid restrictions on handling products refined from Russian oil. These shifts add to the uncertainty around how long current constraints on Russian exports will persist — particularly if negotiations accelerate.
| TRADE POLICY |
—China’s thrifty turn leaves European wines gathering dust
SCMP reports Chinese consumers are drinking less and trading down, squeezing Europe’s wine producers while domestic vineyards step up competition
China’s economic slowdown is reshaping its wine market, and European producers are feeling the pain, according to detailed reporting by the South China Morning Post. With households tightening budgets, Chinese drinkers are cutting back, shifting to cheaper bottles, and increasingly buying online—upending the once-booming demand for premium European wines.
Global wine consumption has been falling since the pandemic, but China’s reversal is particularly stark. Imports peaked at about 146 million gallons in 2017 before plunging to just over 44 million gallons last year — a decline of more than 70%. SCMP notes that China’s wine imports dropped again in both volume and value through the first three quarters of 2025, with demand still sliding.
European suppliers, once dominant in China’s premium segment, are confronting deep losses. Customs data cited by SCMP show sharp declines in 2025 import value: French wine down 19.7%, Italian down 12.8%, and Spanish down 26.9%. At the Hong Kong International Wine & Spirits Fair in early November, vintners described a “consumption downgrade” driven by younger, frugal buyers and a market far more sensitive to pricing.
“Before Covid-19, you could sell to China anything at any price,” said Maison Le Star’s Mathias Saint-Marc, noting his exports have fallen from around 1 million bottles annually to as few as 250,000. Other European producers echoed the sentiment, with some now offering deep discounts or repositioning toward entry-level wines.
The downturn extends beyond Europe. China’s once-red-hot baijiu industry is cooling, with distilleries in Maotai town shrinking from more than 1,000 to just a few hundred. Meanwhile, Australian wine — briefly buoyed after Beijing lifted punitive tariffs in 2024 — has also plateaued, according to vendors interviewed by SCMP.
As foreign brands struggle, Chinese producers are surging. Winemakers from Xinjiang and Ningxia showcased increasingly competitive offerings at the Hong Kong fair, attracting interest from buyers in South Korea, Singapore, Japan, and even Russia, where ongoing trading issues have limited access to European wines. China’s wine exports surged 118% in the first nine months of 2025, led by shipments to Hong Kong and North Korea.
Still, consumer perceptions remain mixed. While SCMP reports growing curiosity among younger drinkers — especially women — many experienced consumers say domestic wines still lag behind major foreign producers in consistency and taste.
For now, the global imbalance persists: European vintners face shrinking margins and volatile Chinese demand, while China’s own wineries eye an opportunity to expand abroad. In an era of thriftier drinkers and fiercer competition, the era of “sell anything at any price” in China’s wine market is decidedly over.
| CHINA |
—House China panel presses FTC to mandate online country-of-origin labels
Bipartisan leaders argue clearer sourcing rules on e-commerce platforms would bolster U.S. manufacturing and help consumers avoid products tied to China
The leaders of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party are urging the Federal Trade Commission to require online retailers to prominently display country-of-origin information, seller locations, and the share of U.S.-made content in products sold on major e-commerce platforms.
In a Nov. 24 letter to FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson, Chair John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Ranking Member Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) said clearer labeling would support domestic manufacturing, improve supply-chain resilience, and allow Americans to avoid products linked to foreign adversaries — especially China. “Americans should not have to guess whether their hard-earned dollars are supporting our adversaries,” they wrote.
The lawmakers argue that many online marketplaces — including China-based giants Shein and Temu — make it difficult for consumers to identify where goods are made, what portion of components are manufactured in the U.S., and whether sellers are U.S.-based or controlled by entities in adversary countries. They want the FTC to explore mandating standardized, prominently displayed origin labels, searchable filters by country of origin, and verification systems to prevent misrepresentation.
Moolenaar and Krishnamoorthi say such steps would help consumers make “informed, patriotic purchasing decisions” and reduce exposure to “risky PRC products.” They also sent a letter asking Amazon CEO Andy Jassy to voluntarily implement similar disclosures and to respond by Dec. 15.
Business groups have long opposed federal requirements for online country-of-origin labeling. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce argued in 2022 that past legislative proposals would impose costly new obligations on retailers while creating conflicting regulatory regimes with existing Customs programs. Senate efforts to legislate online origin labeling have advanced intermittently, including versions sponsored by Sens. Tammy Baldwin, Sherrod Brown, and a handful of Republicans, though support has waned. Baldwin reintroduced the bill this year with only one co-sponsor, and there has been no recent House companion legislation.
The committee’s push signals renewed congressional interest in tightening e-commerce transparency rules — and intensifying scrutiny of China-linked retail platforms.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Deep cyclone moving through the Great Lakes is forecast to bring
blizzard conditions along the south shore of Lake Superior today… …Rain changing to snow with windy conditions for the remainder of the Great Lakes with lake-effect snows lingering into Thanksgiving holiday… …Periods of mountain snow and low-elevation rain expected for the Pacific Northwest through the next couple of days followed by increasing chance of snow across Montana Friday morning… …Well above average temperatures across much of the eastern U.S. will give way to windy and much colder conditions heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.
