Rollins Supports MCOOL, But Hurdles Ahead

Trump threatens NATO exit as Iran war strains alliances | Rollins signals fertilizer action | EPA finalizes 2026–2027 biofuel mandates, shifts focus to 2028 rulemaking 

LINKS

Link: Updates, April 1, Part 1: Trump to Address Nation Tonight on Iran
Link: U.S./China Trade Reset: ‘Board of Trade’ Emerges as 
         Key Summit Deliverable
Link: USDA Grain Stocks Come in Near Trade Expectations — 
         Corn Slightly Tight, Soybeans Heavier Than Forecast
Link: Acreage Surprises Reshape Market Outlook, With Wheat 
          Leading Bullish Signals

Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 29
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, March 29 
 

Updates: Policy/News/Markets, April 1, 2026, Part 2

UP FRONT

TOP STORIES

— Trump threatens NATO exit as Iran war strains alliances — President signals potential U.S. withdrawal from NATO while linking alliance tensions to Europe’s reluctance to support Hormuz operations; national address on Iran set for 9 p.m. ET 

— UAE backs U.S.-led push to reopen Strait of Hormuz — Abu Dhabi signals military and diplomatic support while pressing for UN action to restore energy flows through a critical global chokepoint 

— DMC payments triggered for dairy producers — February margins at $8.46/cwt activate Tier 1 payments, providing modest support as feed costs remain a key driver 

— Rollins backs MCOOL for meat — USDA chief frames labeling as consumer transparency, but policy risks sparking renewed trade disputes with Canada and Mexico 

— Rollins signals fertilizer action amid price surge — USDA pressing producers to cooperate as Hormuz disruptions drive input costs higher; potential farmer aid under consideration 

— Fertilizer bottleneck builds in Persian Gulf — Ship backlog rises to 36 vessels carrying ~1.65M tons, underscoring worsening supply constraints tied to Hormuz disruptions 

— EPA finalizes 2026–2027 RFS, shifts focus to 2028 — Biofuel volumes unchanged; attention turns to import RIN reduction policy that could reshape feedstock flows 

— Brazil closes gap with U.S. in global farm exports — Record exports leave Brazil just $2.1B behind, signaling a potential structural shift in global ag trade leadership 

— U.S. spirits exports decline amid trade friction — Canada shelf removals and EU tariff uncertainty drive a 3.8% drop despite growth in other global markets 

FINANCIAL & ENERGY MARKETS

— Oil prices whipsaw on shifting war outlook — Brent briefly dips below $100 as de-escalation hopes emerge after earlier surge near $120 on tanker attacks 

— Global equities rally on de-escalation optimism — Markets rise as Trump signals potential U.S. exit from Iran conflict within weeks 

WEATHER

— Storm systems split U.S. Farm Belt outlook — Severe weather hits Corn Belt while western wheat areas remain dry, with potential relief in the 11–15-day window 

TOP STORIES — Trump threatens NATO exit as Iran war strains alliancesPresident signals U.S. withdrawal is “beyond reconsideration,” escalating pressure on Europe over defense burden and Middle East conflict In an exclusive interview with The Telegraph, Donald Trump said he is seriously weighing withdrawing the United States from NATO, calling the alliance a “paper tiger” after European members declined to support U.S. military efforts tied to the Iran conflict. Trump said leaving NATO is now “beyond reconsideration,” arguing the alliance failed a key test when it did not assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a critical energy chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global oil flows. The president framed the dispute as part of a broader breakdown in transatlantic burden-sharing, saying the U.S. has consistently supported allies — including in Ukraine — without reciprocal backing. He sharply criticized the United Kingdom and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, questioning Britain’s naval capabilities and defense priorities, while also dismissing European reluctance to engage militarily in the Iran war. The comments align with growing frustration within the administration. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said NATO could be “re-examined” after the conflict, citing limits on U.S. access to allied bases and describing the alliance as increasingly one-sided. Trump also pointed to potential structural changes to NATO, including a “pay-to-play” model that could limit influence for members not meeting defense spending targets, and reiterated that a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany remains under consideration. Despite the escalating rhetoric, Trump suggested the Iran war could end within “two to three weeks,” emphasizing that the objective remains preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump tonight at 9 pm ET will give an address to the nation about the conflict with Iran.  The interview underscores a potential turning point in U.S./Europe relations, with NATO’s future increasingly tied to both the trajectory of the Iran conflict and longstanding disputes over defense commitments and strategic alignment. — UAE moves to back U.S.-led effort to reopen Strait of HormuzAbu Dhabi signals military and diplomatic support, presses for UN action as global energy chokepoint remains under threat The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is preparing to support a potential U.S.-led operation to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, marking a significant escalation in both military coordination and diplomatic pressure as the strategic waterway remains disrupted, the Wall Street Journal reports.  Officials in Abu Dhabi are signaling readiness to provide logistical, naval, and potentially direct operational support alongside the United States and allied forces, as concerns mount over sustained threats to global oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the narrow passage — a route that typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne energy trade. Meanwhile, the UAE is pushing for urgent action at the United Nations Security Council, advocating for a resolution that would legitimize international intervention to guarantee freedom of navigation. Such a move would aim to build broader multinational backing, particularly from European and Asian energy-importing nations heavily exposed to disruptions in Gulf shipping lanes. The dual-track approach — combining military readiness with a diplomatic push — underscores rising urgency among Gulf states as attacks on tankers, ports, and energy infrastructure continue to destabilize the region. UAE officials are increasingly framing the crisis not only as a regional security issue but as a global economic threat requiring coordinated international enforcement. For energy markets, the implications are substantial. Any multinational operation to reopen the strait would carry risks of further escalation with Iran, but failure to act risks prolonging supply disruptions that have already driven sharp increases in oil prices, shipping insurance costs, and freight rates. The UAE’s involvement also signals a shift toward more direct Gulf participation in securing maritime routes, rather than relying solely on Western naval power — a development that could reshape the security architecture of one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. — DMC payments triggered for some participants. Payments under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC)  program were triggered for some participants, with the February national average margin at $8.46 per hundredweight (cwt). Dairy operations that selected Tier 1 margin coverage levels of $9.50, $9, and $8.50 will be issued a payment of $1.04/cwt. for the $9.50 coverage, $0.54/cwt. For $9, and $0.04/cwt. For $8.50.  USDA uses prices for milk and feed components (corn, premium alfalfa hay, and soybean meal) to determine the National average margin. The payments were automatically processed March 31. — Rollins backs Mandatory Country-of-Origin Labeling (MCOOL) for meatUSDA secretary frames MCOOL push as consumer transparency measure amid broader policy debates USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Tuesday she is a “big supporter” of mandatory country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL) for meat products, signaling renewed interest in a policy long debated across the livestock and trade sectors. Speaking to reporters ahead of a roundtable on implementing a federal grazing action plan, Rollins framed the issue primarily as one of consumer transparency rather than market intervention. “It’s just a transparency question,” she said, underscoring the administration’s view that clearer labeling would allow consumers to better understand where their meat originates. The comments come as MCOOL remains a politically sensitive issue, particularly for some U.S. cattle producers who have pushed for reinstating stricter labeling requirements to distinguish domestic beef from imported product. Supporters argue the policy could enhance demand for U.S.-raised livestock, while opponents — including major trading partners — have historically raised concerns about trade discrimination and compliance costs. Overall the U.S. beef industry is divided on the issue.  Rollins’ endorsement suggests USDA may play a more active role in advancing or supporting MCOOL-related efforts, potentially intersecting with ongoing discussions in Congress and within the Trump administration on strengthening domestic agriculture and supply chain transparency. The issue also ties into broader farm policy debates, where lawmakers have revisited labeling, livestock market structure, and trade implications as part of wider efforts to bolster U.S. producers. Upshot: While reiterating her support for MCOOL for meat, Rollins acknowledged that such a policy would require congressional approval. “For me, it’s black and white,” she said. “Everyone in America should know where their food is coming from.” Someone like Brooke Rollins backing MCOOL fits producer-focused populist Republican politics, even if it diverges from traditional free-trade orthodoxy. Under more traditional GOP trade policy (pre-Trump era), a Cabinet-level endorsement like this would be fairly unusual. Under the current political environment — especially within the Trump administration — it’s less surprising, given:• Skepticism of global trade rules• Willingness to revisit WTO-era constraints• Emphasis on domestic production Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico would almost certainly view a revived MCOOL regime as a direct trade violation — and respond quickly through formal dispute channels and, if needed, retaliation. Both countries successfully challenged earlier U.S. labeling rules at the World Trade Organization, arguing they discriminated against imported livestock. A similar policy today would likely prompt immediate legal action under both WTO rules and the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement. Retaliation is a key risk. In the prior case, Canada and Mexico were authorized to impose more than $1 billion in tariffs on U.S. goods, targeting politically sensitive agricultural and manufactured products. A renewed dispute could again put U.S. exports — including meat, row crops, and potentially biofuels — in the crosshairs. Beyond tariffs, MCOOL could disrupt tightly integrated North American livestock supply chains, forcing costly segregation of animals and potentially reducing cross-border cattle and hog flows. Both countries could respond by shifting production and processing domestically to avoid U.S. requirements. Bottom Line: A reinstated MCOOL regime would likely escalate quickly into a broader trade conflict, with legal challenges, retaliatory tariffs, and supply chain disruptions all in play. — Rollins signals fertilizer action as costs surge amid Iran conflictUSDA chief presses industry for cooperation, hints at farmer aid and renewed labeling push UUSDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Tuesday that the Trump administration is preparing “a couple big announcements” on fertilizer as prices spike following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war, signaling potential federal intervention to stabilize input costs for farmers. Speaking alongside Interior Secretary Doug Burgum at a joint event focused on boosting the U.S. cattle herd, Rollins said she has been directly engaging major fertilizer producers to discourage price-taking behavior during the supply shock and instead encourage industry cooperation. “I have been in contact with key fertilizer companies asking them to partner with us,” Rollins told reporters. “Not to use this as an opportunity for a bottom line, but use it as an opportunity to step up … and make sure that we can continue to produce the best food supply in the world.” The comments come as global fertilizer markets react to disruptions in the Persian Gulf, a critical hub for nitrogen exports, raising concerns about input affordability heading into key U.S. planting windows. Rollins also suggested additional financial support for farmers could be forthcoming, noting that USDA is working with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to determine how potential new funding streams could be directed into agricultural communities. She did not clarify whether the funding could be tied to tariff revenues, and USDA declined to provide further details. In parallel, Rollins is ramping up pressure on food companies to adopt USDA’s voluntary “Product of USA” labeling initiative, part of a broader transparency push. She said she had scheduled multiple calls with major food companies Tuesday to encourage adoption. — Fertilizer bottleneck builds in Persian Gulf as ships idle amid Hormuz disruptionsVessel count and cargo volumes surge, signaling deepening supply chain strain for global fertilizer markets Fertilizer shipments continue to accumulate in the Persian Gulf as maritime disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz choke off outbound flows, according to shipping intelligence firm Kpler in a statement to the Wall Street Journal.  Kpler estimates that as of Tuesday, 36 vessels were either loading or already laden with roughly 1.65 million tons of fertilizer in the region — a sharp increase from 23 ships carrying about 1.08 million tons reported on March 11. The buildup underscores how quickly supply is backing up in one of the world’s most critical export corridors for crop nutrients. The firm noted that outbound traffic has effectively stalled, with the last confirmed fertilizer vessel departures occurring earlier in March — including a sulfur cargo ship exiting on March 7 and a urea shipment that cleared the strait on March 22. The growing congestion highlights intensifying risks to global fertilizer availability, particularly for nitrogen products like urea that are heavily sourced from Gulf producers. With shipments unable to clear the region, importers face rising uncertainty over delivery timelines, while prices are likely to remain elevated amid tightening supply. The situation adds to mounting pressure on agricultural markets already grappling with higher input costs, reinforcing concerns that prolonged disruption in the Gulf could ripple into planting decisions and global food production in the months ahead. — EPA finalizes 2026–2027 biofuel mandates, shifts focus to 2028 rulemakingDelayed import RIN reduction policy sets up potential surge in foreign feedstock use ahead of 2028 compliance changes EPA has formally published its Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) “Set 2” final rule for 2026 and 2027 in the Federal Register (link), confirming biofuel volume requirements first released in pre-publication form on March 27. Aside from formatting updates, the final rule remains unchanged, solidifying near-term compliance expectations for obligated parties. With the 2026–2027 framework now finalized, attention is shifting to the 2028 RFS rule, which EPA has signaled will be completed on schedule by Oct. 31, 2026. That timeline implies a proposed rule could emerge as early as June, setting up a consequential debate over both future blending volumes and structural policy changes. Central to the 2028 discussion is EPA’s planned implementation of the “import RIN reduction” (IRR) provision, which would assign only 50% Renewable Identification Number (RIN) value to imported biofuels or fuels produced from imported feedstocks. EPA confirmed in the final rule that this policy will take effect beginning with the 2028 compliance year or shortly thereafter. The agency argues the IRR approach is intended to prioritize domestic energy security and rural economic development, noting that import-based fuels do not deliver the same employment and supply chain benefits as U.S.-produced biofuels using domestic feedstocks. However, EPA acknowledged that key details of the IRR framework remain unresolved, stating it is “currently considering next steps” and will engage stakeholders as the policy is developed. One open question is whether the IRR structure will be aligned with the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, which similarly restricts eligibility for fuels derived from non–North American feedstocks. In the near term, the delayed implementation of the IRR provision is expected to influence market behavior. Biofuel producers may accelerate imports of foreign feedstocks to capture full RIN value before the 50% reduction takes effect — a dynamic that could temporarily boost import volumes and reshape feedstock flows ahead of the 2028 transition. — Brazil closes in on U.S. as top global farm exporterNarrow $2.1B gap in 2025 underscores structural shift driven by Brazil’s growth, China ties, and U.S. trade headwinds Brazil came within striking distance of surpassing the U.S. as the world’s largest agricultural exporter in 2025, highlighting a major shift in global farm trade dynamics. Brazilian agribusiness exports reached a record $169.2 billion, just shy of the $171.3 billion posted by the U.S., leaving a narrow $2.1 billion gap. Analysts say the trajectory increasingly favors Brazil. Economists point to the country’s sustained expansion — averaging 8.6% annual export growth from 2000 to 2024 compared to 5.3% for the U.S. — alongside declining U.S. export performance in recent years. A key distinction lies in methodology. U.S. export figures include higher-value “ag specialties” such as processed foods, beverages, and manufactured goods, while Brazil’s strength is concentrated in bulk commodities. When comparing commodity exports alone, analysts argue Brazil has likely already taken the lead. Trade policy has also played a role. U.S. tariff measures during the Trump administration contributed to a 5.6% drop in Brazil’s exports to the U.S. market in 2025, though the broader effect has been a reorientation of Brazilian trade flows toward other regions. The longer-term trend is striking. The U.S. held a $50 billion export advantage over Brazil as recently as 2020; by 2025, that lead had nearly vanished. Over two decades, the U.S. advantage has shrunk from 137% to just 1.2%, reflecting Brazil’s rapid ascent in global agricultural markets. Looking ahead, geopolitical dynamics could accelerate Brazil’s rise. Stronger trade ties with China and expanding access to new markets — including over 500 newly opened export destinations in recent years — contrast with strained U.S./China relations and missed grain purchase targets. Analysts also warn that U.S. policy shifts, including potential increases in biofuel mandates, could redirect more grain into domestic use, further limiting export competitiveness. Taken together, the data point to a pivotal moment: Brazil is not only closing the gap — it is positioned to overtake the U.S. as the world’s top agricultural exporter in the near term. — U.S. spirits exports slide in 2025 as trade disputes disrupt key marketsCanada shelf removals and EU tariff uncertainty drive declines, though global demand outside major markets shows resilience U.S. spirits exports fell 3.8% in 2025 to $2.37 billion, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS), as retaliatory trade actions and tariff uncertainty weighed heavily on two of the industry’s largest markets — Canada and the European Union. Link to full report.  The steepest impact came from Canada, where provinces removed American spirits from retail shelves beginning in March 2025, triggering a more than 70% drop in exports to that market for the remainder of the year. Alberta and Saskatchewan have since lifted restrictions, but the disruption significantly dragged down overall export totals. In the European Union, exports of American whiskey — the largest U.S. spirits category — fell 35% in 2025. The decline was partly driven by a surge in shipments in late 2024, as producers rushed to get ahead of potential tariff reinstatements. A proposed 30% EU tariff on U.S. spirits remains suspended through August 2026, leaving continued uncertainty for exporters. Overall, American whiskey exports dropped 19% to $1.08 billion but still led all categories by a wide margin, followed by liqueurs and cordials, vodka, rum, gin and brandy. Despite the headline decline, underlying demand remained firm globally. Excluding Canada, U.S. spirits exports actually rose 2.5% in 2025, with shipments to the rest of the world climbing 13.2%, led by gains in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Australia and other emerging markets. The EU remained the largest export destination at $1.2 billion, followed by the UK, Australia, Mexico and Canada — together accounting for roughly 72% of total exports. Industry leaders emphasized that the downturn highlights the sector’s sensitivity to trade disruptions. DISCUS President and CEO Chris Swonger warned that restoring tariff-free access to key markets will be critical to future growth, particularly as domestic sales soften and inventories build. Looking ahead, the industry is prioritizing renewed zero-for-zero tariff agreements with major partners and expanding access to high-growth markets, including India, Brazil, Vietnam and Southeast Asia, as a path to stabilizing exports in 2026 and beyond. — Oil prices whipsaw as war outlook shiftsBrent pulls back on de-escalation hopes  Hopes for a near-term resolution to the war have driven sharp volatility in global oil markets, with the Brent crude benchmark briefly falling below $100 per barrel. June Brent futures were trading at around $102 per barrel at the time of publication, reflecting easing risk sentiment. The move follows a dramatic spike earlier in the week, when expiring May contracts surged to nearly $120 per barrel on Tuesday amid escalating Iranian attacks on tankers and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf. — Global equity markets soared on optimism of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict after President Donald Trump said the U.S. could end its military attacks on Iran in two to three weeks. Wall Street futures were in positive territory after a strong rally in North American markets yesterday. Today, the fresh geopolitical de-escalation will remain the market’s primary focus.  In Asia, Japan +5.2%. Hong Kong +2%. China +1.5%. India +1.7%.In Europe, at midday, London +1.7%. Paris +1.6%. Frankfurt +2.2%. — Storm systems set up sharp weather divide across U.S. Farm BeltSevere storms, flooding, and snow hit Corn Belt as wheat regions face uneven moisture outlook Two powerful storm systems are set to sweep across the central United States through early Saturday, creating a stark weather divide with major implications for both row crops and winter wheat. The system will drive severe weather and heavy rainfall across the central and eastern Corn Belt, raising risks of flooding and fieldwork delays. At the same time, colder northern areas will see significant winter impacts, including ice accumulation in northern Wisconsin and more than a foot of snowfall across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Across the Hard Red Winter wheat belt, the pattern will produce a sharp precipitation gradient. Eastern Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas are expected to receive meaningful moisture—beneficial for crop development—while western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles remain largely dry, extending drought concerns in key production areas. Looking ahead, conditions are expected to turn broadly dry across much of the central U.S. by Easter Sunday, with limited precipitation through April 8. However, forecast models point to a notable pattern shift in the 11–15-day window that could finally deliver long-awaited moisture to the parched western wheat regions. Temperatures will remain volatile in the near term, with a sharp contrast between cold conditions in the northwest and unseasonable warmth in the southeast through Friday. A widespread cooldown is expected through April 7, followed by a renewed warming trend beginning April 8.