Rollins to Unveil Farmer Aid Details This Week
Congress returns | OPEC+ confab | StatsCanada | Affordability | Smithfield | USMCA
Link: Why the Big Four Meatpackers Keep Their Grip —
And Why Trump’s New Crackdown Won’t Break the Mold
Link: Weekend Updates, Nov. 29, 2025: Spain Confronts Swine Fever Cases,
Raising Export Risks
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 28
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 28
TOP STORIES
— Rollins said farmer aid package this week, payment early January
— Trump pushes aggressive affordability agenda as key costs remain stubborn
— Where Smithfield Foods fits into the “Big Four meatpacker” conversation
WASHINGTON FOCUS
— House & Senate back from holiday break: same issues, but less time to get results
— Jam-packed agenda as Congress reconvenes
— Finalizing the 2026 NDAA
— Deciding the fate of ACA premium subsidies
— Completing remaining FY 2026 appropriations bills
— Determining whether federal AI-regulation pre-emption will ride on the NDAA
— Managing increasing pressure on trade and tariff oversight
— Agenda with 2026 election overtones
— What to watch in the coming days
— USMCA review hearing opens amid pressure for changes
— Would Congress have to approve a revised USMCA?
— Events in Washington
— Economic reports & events
— USDA & international ag reports & events
— Energy reports & events
The Week Ahead: Nov. 30, 2025
Up Front TOP STORIES— Rollins said farmer aid package this week, payment early January USDA is preparing to roll out a major aid package, but key decisions remain unresolved — including funding level, program structure (trade-mitigation vs. broader bridge aid), eligibility rules, payment formulas, and how Rollins plans to announce the program.— Trump pushes aggressive affordability agenda as key costs remain stubborn Rollins says Trump is intensifying his focus on lowering prices, even as inflation remains above target and beef/pork costs continue to pressure households.— Where Smithfield Foods fits into the “Big Four meatpacker” conversation Smithfield isn’t one of the Big Four beef packers — it dominates pork. Its size, foreign ownership, and market power still make it central to broader consolidation debates.WASHINGTON FOCUS— The House and Senate are back from break: same issues, less time Congress returns to a packed December agenda — NDAA, ACA subsidies, remaining FY26 appropriations, AI-regulation fights, and intensifying tariff-oversight pressures.— USMCA review hearing opens amid pressure for changes USTR begins multi-day hearings as the administration weighs tweaks — or a shift toward bilateral deals — amid strong warnings from industry and farm groups not to reopen core market-access terms.— Would Congress Have to Approve a Revised USMCA? Yes, for any meaningful changes. Amendments or bilateral replacements require congressional approval; executive-agreement workarounds would be legally weak and likely challenged.EVENTS IN WASHINGTON— Key federal, regulatory, and geopolitical events this week A full slate of hearings, Fed appearances, trade forums, energy and tech discussions, NASA nomination votes, and the multi-day USMCA review dominate the Washington schedule from Dec. 1–5.ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS— Markets await delayed September PCE; Fed blackout in effect A quiet period precedes the Dec. 9–10 FOMC meeting, with ADP jobs data mid-week and PCE/Core PCE on Friday setting the tone for rates.— Key U.S. economic reports (Dec. 1–5) A busy data calendar includes PMIs, vehicle sales, ADP, ISM services, industrial production, jobless claims, PCE, consumer sentiment, and multiple global indicators.KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS— Ag focus: FAO food index Friday; ABARES Tuesday; major global commodity events A dense week of global ag data — export inspections, CFTC releases, Australia crop report, coffee conference, Conab coffee output, StatsCan production, FAO food prices, and multiple commodity summits.KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS— Energy focus: OPEC+ discussions continue; global LNG and fuel-market data on deck Energy markets watch OPEC+ signals, LNG meetings, EIA weekly reports, rig counts, gas balances, and potential January OSP announcements. Top Stories: — Rollins said farmer aid package this week, payment early JanuaryKey variables still unresolved USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins last week said the administration’s long-anticipated farm-aid package will be unveiled this week, with payments to producers targeted for early January. But major policy and political questions remain unresolved as the White House weighs the structure, funding source, and eligibility criteria. Key unknowns to watch Funding Level. Pre-announcement estimates vary widely:• $15 billion on the high end• Under $10 billion on the low end A central unresolved issue is how the administration will finance the package, especially as tariff revenue, CCC borrowing authority, and “tariff dividend” frameworks were all being discussed internally. • Program structure: Trade mitigation or broader bridge aid? Rollins has not clarified whether the package will be:• A trade-mitigation program modeled on the China-related “MFP” structure used during President Trump’s first term; or• A broader, less commodity-specific aid package designed to act as a “bridge to 2026,” particularly given widespread expectations of continued tariff-driven price volatility and input-cost strain.• USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden previously signaled the payment plan would take recent changes in commodity markets into account. The program structure will determine nearly every downstream detail. • Producer eligibility. Eligibility rules will depend entirely on which model Rollins adopts:• Trade-linked aid would likely center on commodities directly affected by tariff retaliation or disrupted trade flows.• General economic-support aid could broaden eligibility to include more commodities, livestock operations, and possibly specialty-crop producers. Producers are watching closely for:• Whether payment caps mirror MFP/CFAP;• Whether corporate or vertically integrated operations qualify;• Whether 2025 production, historical yields, or acreage bases are used. Payment rates and determination. Payment rates cannot be set until the total funding envelope and program model are defined. Depending on the structure, rates might be based on:• Per-acre formulas• Per-head livestock formulas• County-level or national revenue-loss factors• A flat payment mechanism for simplicity and speed Signals from USDA suggest the department is torn between simplicity (needed for January payments) and precision (needed for political defensibility). • Rollins’ announcement strategy. Rollins has built a practice of rolling out major policy moves through:• Op-eds or commentary items in the Wall Street Journal• Television comments on Fox News, Fox Business, CNBC• Social-media posts, especially on X and Truth Social Expect her to preview or soft-launch the program details through one of these platforms — possibly coordinated with remarks from President Trump emphasizing affordability and support for rural America. Another key is whether Rollins will include farm-state lawmakers like House Ag Chair GT Thompson (R-Pa.) and Senate Ag Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) in the announcement. If so, those lawmakers could provide some comments about another possible aid plan from Congress later this year, like what Congress is enacted Dec. 21, 2024. — Trump pushes aggressive affordability agenda as key costs remain stubbornRollins says the president is “resolutely focused” on lowering prices, even as inflation and key food costs continue to challenge household budgets USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said President Trump has intensified his focus on affordability heading into 2026, responding to internal polling that shows his economic approval ratings slipping. In an interview on Fox Business’ Kudlow, Rollins recounted Trump telling her to get egg prices down — quipping that the White House would not resort to “plastic eggs” at the Easter Egg Roll. She said egg prices have dropped sharply over the past 10 months and pointed to the administration’s broader push to “make America more affordable again.” Trump, meanwhile, has brushed off negative polling as “fake,” insisting the U.S. has “the greatest economy we’ve ever had.” But despite easing prices in some categories — including eggs (-1.3% over the past year) and relatively stable dairy — beef prices remain up 14.7%, bacon is up 5.8%, and overall pork prices have climbed 1.6%, according to recent CPI data. Inflation overall is running 3% above year-ago levels, still a full percentage point above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Rollins said the administration is zeroing in on remaining “outliers,” citing declines in fuel prices and year-over-year improvements in shelter and housing costs, which she said are down nearly 14% since Trump took office. She said the White House and federal agencies are “hyper-focused” on affordability and argued that Americans “will be really encouraged” by additional progress in the months ahead. — Where Smithfield Foods fits into the “Big Four meatpacker” conversation Why it is not counted among them even though it is a giant in U.S. protein production Our special report (link) on the meatpacking industry did not include Smithfield. 1. Smithfield is a giant — but in pork, not beefThe “Big Four” being discussed (Tyson, JBS, Cargill, National Beef) are the dominant beef packers, not the dominant packers across all meats. Smithfield is:• The No. 1 pork processor in the United States• The world’s largest pork exporter• A vertically integrated hog producer (breeding → feeding → slaughter → processing) But Smithfield does not operate in beef, and therefore is not part of the “Big Four beef packers.” Beef packer concentration (Big Four):• Tyson• JBS• Cargill• National BeefCombined: ~80–85% of U.S. fed-cattle slaughter Pork packer concentration (different Big Four):• Smithfield Foods• JBS (via JBS Pork & Swift)• Tyson (pork division)• Hormel (processed meats)Combined: ~66% of U.S. hog slaughter So, Smithfield is central to concentration discussions — but in pork, not beef. 2. Smithfield is foreign-owned (WH Group, China) — which adds political sensitivity. Since 2013, Smithfield has been owned by WH Group, based in Hong Kong (formerly Shuanghui International). That means:• Smithfield is the largest Chinese-owned agrifood asset in the U.S.• It often gets pulled into debates about:Food securityForeign ownership of U.S. farms and plantsSupply chain vulnerabilities Even if USDA/DOJ focus is on beef concentration, Smithfield becomes part of the broader narrative about consolidation, foreign ownership, and food security. 3. Smithfield shapes hog prices the same way beef packers shape cattle pricesJust like cattle feeders rely on the Big Four beef packers, hog producers rely heavily on Smithfield’s buying power. Smithfield:• Slaughters roughly 90,000+ hogs per day across its system• Operates massive processing complexes in Tar Heel, NC (largest pork plant in the world) and Sioux Falls, S.D.• Has dominant position in contract hog production That gives it:• Substantial buyer power over hog producers• Pricing influence in the negotiated, formula, and contract markets• A central role in the pork cutout and wholesale price formation 4. Why Smithfield is not in the current Trump/USDA/DOJ focus (yet)The current scrutiny is:• Primarily beef• Triggered by cattle shortage, high beef prices, and packer margins• Politically tied to rural cattle states (Kan., Neb., Tex., Colo.) But Smithfield could easily fall into the next wave of investigations because:• It is a foreign-owned processor• DOJ has already targeted labor-market coordination among packers• USDA has signaled broader GIPSA rules may extend across all species So, Smithfield is very much “in the orbit,” just not the centerpiece of the beef concentration story. 5. Bottom Line: Smithfield is not one of the Big Four beef packers — but it is one of the Big Four pork packers and the No. 1 hog processor in the U.S. It fits into the broader meatpacking concentration debate in three key ways:Dominance in pork, shaping hog prices and producer leverageForeign ownership, making it politically sensitiveVertical integration, giving it uniquely high control from farm to export dock |
| WASHINGTON FOCUS |
— The House and Senate are back from their holiday break: same issues, but less time to get results.
— A jam-packed agenda as Congress reconvenes. When the House and Senate gavel back in on Dec. 1, they face an unusually tight series of deadlines and competing priorities:
• Finalizing the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
Negotiators have been racing to reconcile differences between the House and Senate bills, with both parties eager to bring the compromise package to the floor in early December. The Senate version authorizes nearly $925 billion in defense spending, while the House bill tracks the White House’s $883 billion request — a top-line dispute that remains a sticking point.
• Deciding the fate of Affordable Care Act premium subsidies.
Enhanced ACA credits expire at year-end, putting millions at risk of higher premiums for 2026. Senate leaders have pledged a vote in the first two weeks of December, but House action remains uncertain. The political consequences of allowing subsidies to lapse are substantial, especially during a period of heightened inflation concerns.
• Completing remaining FY 2026 appropriations bills.
Congress has only resolved part of the year’s funding through a “minibus” package covering USDA, FDA, Veterans Affairs and legislative branch operations. Major departments — including Defense, DHS, Interior and others — still require appropriations or another continuing resolution. With only a few legislative weeks left in the year, decisions will need to come quickly.
• Determining whether federal AI-regulation pre-emption will ride on the NDAA.
Tech-policy negotiators are again weighing whether to include language limiting state authority over artificial-intelligence regulation — a proposal that has drawn opposition from state attorneys general and civil-liberties groups.
• Managing increasing pressure on trade and tariff oversight.
While the Trade Review Act of 2025 has not yet advanced, it remains a potential flashpoint as tariff policy continues to roil agricultural markets, consumer prices and U.S.-Canada-Mexico supply chains.
• Agenda with 2026 election overtones. While Republicans and Democrats remain divided on the scope of spending and health-care provisions, both parties acknowledge that failure to resolve these issues in December would spill uncertainty into 2026 — particularly for defense planning, insurance markets, and federal agencies preparing for the new fiscal year.
— What to watch in the coming days
• Whether NDAA negotiators finalize a deal by early December
• How quickly the Senate moves on ACA subsidies, and whether the House joins
• The fate of AI-regulation language in the final NDAA package
• Signals from leadership on whether another continuing resolution is unavoidable
• Any renewed push for tariff-oversight legislation, particularly as trade tensions intensify
Bottom Line: Congress enters December with little margin for delay — and with political rhetoric threatening to overshadow an already compressed and high-stakes agenda.
— USMCA review hearing opens amid pressure for changes
Trump administration signals possible tweaks — or a pivot toward bilateral deals
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) on Wednesday will open a multi-day hearing examining the operation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a critical step in the administration’s legally mandated review of the pact. The hearing is scheduled to run Dec. 3–5 but may be extended through Dec. 8 depending on witness volume and questions.
The session comes at a sensitive moment. As part of its formal comments to USTR, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce underscored that USMCA supports 13 million American jobs and remains the destination for more U.S. manufactured exports than the next 12 markets combined — a reminder of the agreement’s central role in North American supply chains.
But early signals from the Trump administration suggest potential turbulence ahead. Officials have hinted at interest in “modernizing” or “strengthening” the pact, while some within the administration have floated the possibility of abandoning the three-way structure altogether in favor of bilateral U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico deals. Either path could rekindle trade uncertainty for automakers, industrial firms, and agricultural exporters who depend on stable cross-border rules.
The Dec. 3 hearing will feature testimony from industry groups, labor unions, farm organizations, and policy experts, all addressing how the agreement is functioning and what changes — if any — are warranted.
A public comment period on the future of USMCA drew more than 1,500 submissions, reflecting intense interest across the U.S. economy as the Trump administration weighs whether to tweak the pact or pursue a more sweeping renegotiation. According to USTR’s docket, the review attracted responses from over 100 agriculture organizations — ranging from major commodity groups to state farm bureaus — as well as more than 90 individual farmers and ranchers, underscoring the sector’s deep exposure to cross-border trade. Agricultural commenters overwhelmingly warned that reopening the agreement could destabilize critical export markets, particularly for dairy, corn, soybeans, beef, pork, fruits and vegetables. The comment surge highlights broad unease about the direction of the review.
Agricultural groups pushed a consistent message: while enforcement issues persist — including Canadian dairy TRQ implementation, Mexican biotech corn restrictions, fresh produce volumes, and sanitary/phytosanitary processes — the overall framework remains vital to farm income and export stability. Many filings cautioned that reopening core market-access terms could trigger retaliatory tariffs or disrupt supply chains at a time when farm margins remain thin and input prices volatile.
The breadth of comments signals a bruising process ahead. If President Trump opts to replace USMCA with bilateral deals, as several officials have hinted, the shift could create another period of significant trade uncertainty, particularly for autos, machinery, chemicals and food/agriculture sectors that rely heavily on integrated supply chains across North America.
USTR’s review, required under U.S. implementing legislation, will continue into 2026 and may shape the future of North America’s most consequential trade accord.
| — Would Congress Have to Approve a Revised USMCA?Nearly always yes — unless the changes are extremely minor or the administration tries an unprecedented legal end-run 1. If the administration seeks to amend USMCA → Congressional approval is required Any meaningful change to tariff schedules, market access, rules of origin, ag disciplines, IP rules, labor standards, dispute settlement, etc. would constitute a formal amendment to the treaty. Under U.S. law:• A revised USMCA must be submitted under Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) procedures, unless Congress chooses another vehicle.• Even if TPA has lapsed (as it has), Congress still must pass implementing legislation for any amendment to take effect domestically. Bottom Line: An amended USMCA → must go to Congress → must be approved. 2. If the administration seeks new bilateral agreements (U.S.–Mexico, U.S.–Canada) → Congress approval is still required President Trump has floated this option. If USMCA is replaced with two bilateral FTAs:• Both deals would require new implementing bills.• Congress must approve tariff changes and modify U.S. law to bring the agreements into force. Bottom Line: Bilateral U.S./Canada and U.S./Mexico deals would require congressional approval. 3. If the administration tries executive agreements instead of a formal treaty → legally shaky, politically explosive Some in Trump’s orbit have suggested using narrower executive agreements to avoid Congress. However:• Executive agreements cannot alter U.S. tariff schedules without congressional action.• They cannot amend U.S. statutes that implement USMCA.• Many USMCA commitments are embedded in U.S. law — an executive agreement can’t override statute. This approach would trigger immediate litigation from industry and Congress. Bottom Line: A pure executive-agreement workaround is almost certainly unlawful and would be blocked in courts. 4. Could the administration withdraw from USMCA without Congress? The president can notify a withdrawal under Article 34.6, but:• USMCA is implemented through U.S. law.• Withdrawal does not automatically repeal that law. Only Congress can do that. So, withdrawal would create a legal gray zone until Congress acts — likely provoking legislative and legal pushback. Upshot: Any “updated,” renegotiated, or restructured USMCA — or any replacement with bilateral agreements — would require congressional approval to take effect in U.S. law. Only very narrow, technical updates (e.g., committee procedures, minor regulatory coordination) could bypass Congress, and those are not what the Trump administration is contemplating. |
| — EVENTS IN WASHINGTON |
Mon., Dec. 1
• White House Christmas decorations, military spouse effort. White House hosts a design and decoration advance tour of the 2025 White House Christmas. The White House hosts an American Red Cross holiday care package event with military spouses.
• Ukraine war status. Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion on “The State of Play in Ukraine.”
• Chemicals peer review. Environmental Protection Agency virtual meeting of the Science Advisory Committee on Chemicals to consider and ask questions regarding the scope and clarity of the draft charge questions for peer review.
Tue., Dec. 2
• Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies at a hearing on oversight of federal regulators before the House Financial Services Committee.
• Capitol Christmas tree lighting. Office of the Speaker of the House hosts the annual ceremony for the lighting of the U.s. Capitol Christmas Tree, a 53-foot red fir from the Humboldt-Toiyabe National Forest in Nevada.
• Post-trade war action. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs annual Wegner Lecture on International Business and Finance, focusing on “What Comes After the Trade War?”
• Communications networks. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Telecommunications and Media Subcommittee hearing on “Signal Under Siege: Defending America’s Communications Networks.”
• ExxonMobil outlook. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “ExxonMobil’s 2025 Global Outlook.”
• Transatlantic trade relations. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Securing the Transatlantic Trade Relationship.”
• Financial regulators. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “Oversight of Prudential Regulators.”
• Crime and small businesses. House Small Business Committee hearing on “Main Street Under Attack: The Cost of Crime on Small Businesses.”
• Energy grid security. House Energy and Commerce Energy Subcommittee hearing on “Securing America’s Energy Infrastructure: Addressing Cyber and Physical Threats to the Grid.”
• Balance sheet conditions. House Financial Services Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity Task Force Subcommittee hearing on “Examining Primary Dealers and Balance Sheet Constraints.”
• AI leadership. Senate Foreign Relations East Asia, the Pacific and International Cybersecurity Policy Subcommittee hearing on “Countering China’s Challenge to American AI Leadership.”
Wed., Dec. 3
• USMCA hearing. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative holds a hearing on the Operation of the Agreement Between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada. Scheduled to run through Friday but may be extend to Dec. 8.
• Nomination vote: NASA. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee hearing on the nominations of Jared Isaacman to be administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; and Steven Haines to be an assistant Commerce secretary for industry and analysis.
• National Petroleum Council. Energy Department meeting of the National Petroleum Council (NPC).
• Biosimilar user fees. Food and Drug Administration meeting to discuss proposed recommendations for the reauthorization of the Biosimilar User Fee Act FY 2028 through FY 2032.
• Global competitiveness. House Ways & Means Tax Subcommittee hearing on “Promoting Global Competitiveness for American Workers and Businesses.”
• Housing industry. House Financial Services Committee hearing on “Building Capacity: Reducing Government Roadblocks to Housing Supply.”
• Health care affordability. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing on “Making Health Care Affordable Again: Healing a Broken System.”
• Argentine transformation. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “After Argentina’s midterms: Can Milei’s momentum drive economic transformation?”
• Energy resources. House Natural Resources Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing on “Unleashing American Energy Dominance and Exploring New Frontiers.”
• Judicial issues. Senate Judiciary Federal Courts, Oversight, Agency Action and Federal Rights Subcommittee hearing on “Impeachment: Holding Rogue Judges Accountable.”
• Digital economy. Axios discussion on “Work Rewired: The New Digital Economy.”
Thurs., Dec. 4
• Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman delivers virtual remarks on Bank Supervision and Regulation to the Florida Bankers Association Leadership Luncheon.
• National Christmas Tree lighting. National Park Service and the National Park Foundation host the 103rd National Christmas Tree Lighting Ceremony.
• USMCA hearing. Office of the US Trade Representative hearing on the Operation of the Agreement Between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada. Scheduled to run through Friday but may be extend to Dec. 8.
• Land Grant universities. Farm Foundation virtual forum on “Recasting Morrill, Reclaiming Relevance: The Future of Land-Grant Universities.”
• U.S./Mexico relations. Atlantic Council discussion on “Driving the Next Chapter in the U.S./Mexico Agenda.”
• China actions in space. House Science, Space, and Technology Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee hearing on “Strategic Trajectories Assessing China’s Space Rise and the Risks to US Leadership.”
• Equity securities tokenization. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Investor Advisory Committee holds a virtual meeting on “Regulatory Changes in Corporate Governance, the Tokenization of Equity Securities.”
• Trump accounts. Aspen Institute’s Financial Security Program; and the Urban Institute virtual discussion on “How Can Trump Accounts Build Wealth for Low- and Moderate-Income Households?”
• Outlook for EIA. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “The Future of The Energy Information Administration (EIA).”
Fri., Dec. 5
• USMCA hearing. Final scheduled day of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative hearing on the Operation of the Agreement Between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada. May be extend to Dec. 8.
• Argentine situation. U.S. Chamber of Commerce discussion on “The Argentine Case: The Challenge of Economic Growth After Decades of Populism.”
| — ECONOMIC REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Markets this week will finally get the long-awaited September reading of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
A Fed communications blackout is now in effect ahead of the Dec. 9–10 policy meeting, meaning investors won’t hear from the usual slate of central bank officials. The quiet period runs from Saturday, Nov. 29, through Thursday, Dec. 11.
On Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report for November will offer an early read on labor-market momentum, with analysts watching to see whether it reinforces the stronger-than-expected September payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Then on Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and Core PCE figures for September. The Fed relies more heavily on PCE than CPI as its primary gauge of inflation and price stability.
— Key U.S. economic reports (Dec. 1-5)
Note: Some government data releases remain uncertain or delayed due to the previous U.S. gov’t shutdown.
Mon., Dec. 1
• RatingDog’s China manufacturing PMI for November
• S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI for November
• U.S. ISM manufacturing for November
• Holiday: Scotland
Tue. Dec. 2
• OECD due to release its latest global Economic Outlook
• Eurozone CPI for November
• Domestic Light Vehicle Sales (Nov)
• Holiday: UAE
Wed., Dec. 3
• RatingDog’s China services & composite PMIs for November
• ADP National Employment Report for November
• S&P Final Services PMI November
• ISM Services PMI November
• Industrial Production
• Import & Export Price Indexes (Sept)
• Annual DealBook Summit, New York. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Gov. Gavin Newsom of California will be on the stage. So will Dario Amodei, the CEO and co-founder of Anthropic; Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase; Mary Barra, the chair and CEO of General Motors; Halle Berry, the actor and founder of Respin; Jimmy Donaldson, the creator known as MrBeast, along with Jeff Housenbold, the CEP of Beast Industries; David Ellison, the chairman and C.E.O. of Paramount Skydance; Larry Fink, the chairman and CEO of BlackRock; Alex Karp, the CEO and co-founder of Palantir; and Erika Kirk, the CEO and chair of Turning Point USA.
Thurs. Dec. 4
• Jobless Claims
• Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Nov)
Fri., Dec. 5
• Eurozone GDP for 3Q
• U.S. personal income, spending, PCE Indexes for September
• Consumer Sentiment
• New York Fed Staff Nowcast Update
• Holiday: Thailand
| — KEY USDA & INTERNATIONAL AG REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Ag focus: The FAO food price index will be out Friday, while Australia’s ABARES will publish its quarterly report Tuesday. Focus during the week also will be on the Asia International Coffee Conference.
NOTE: U.S. releases are listed as normal, though data may be delayed or postponed due to the prior gov’t shutdown.
Mon., Dec. 1
• Export Inspections
• Livestock Slaughter
Tue., Dec. 2
• EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Asia International Coffee Conference, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, day 1
• Australian Crop Report by ABARES
• AHDB Grain Market Outlook Webinar
• Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
• CFTC to publish another batch of commitment of traders data delayed by the U.S. gov’t shutdown
Wed., Dec. 3
• FT Commodities Asia Summit, Singapore, day 1
• Asia International Coffee Conference, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, day 2
Thurs., Dec. 4
• Export Sales
• Slaughter Weekly
• FT Commodities Asia Summit, Singapore, day 2
• Brazil’s Conab to release coffee output data
• StatsCanada production data for wheat, canola, soybeans and barley
Fri., Dec. 5
• FranceAgriMer weekly crop conditions report
• CFTC to publish another batch of commitment of traders data delayed by the U.S. gov’t shutdown
• United Nations’ FAO food price index and monthly grains report
• Malaysia’s Dec. 1-5 palm oil exports
• Holiday: Thailand
• Poultry Slaughter
• Peanut Prices
| — KEY ENERGY REPORTS & EVENTS |
— Energy focus: OPEC+ nations held another round of discussions on output policy on Sunday. Energy-related gatherings will include the World LNG Summit in Istanbul, and the FT Commodities Asia Summit in Singapore. U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to lead a delegation to Russia. Saudi OSPs for January may emerge during the week.
NOTE: U.S. releases are listed as normal, though data may be delayed or postponed due to the prior gov’t shutdown.
Mon., Dec. 1
• Holiday: Scotland
Tue., Dec. 2
• API US inventory report
• Holiday: UAE
Wed. Dec. 3
• EIA Petroleum Status Report
• Weekly Ethanol Production
• IAEA International Symposium on AI and Nuclear Energy, Vienna; runs through Thursday
• Baker-Hughes Rig Count
• Holiday: Oman
Thurs., Dec. 4
• ICE Gasoil options for December expire
• Singapore onshore oil product stockpile weekly data
• World LNG Summit in Istanbul, runs through Friday
Fri., Dec. 5
• ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil
• Earnings: China Gas
• Holiday: Thailand
