Rollins: U.S. to Open New Lands for Ranching to Curb Beef Prices; Simplify Regs for Meat Processing Facilities; Downplays Beef Imports from Argentina
API withdraws support for standalone year-round E15 bill; wants reforms tied to ethanol expansion
Link: NCBA: Argentinian Beef Import Plan Harms U.S. Cattle Producers
Link: Report: China Bypasses U.S. Soybeans in 2025/26 as IEEPA Tariffs Drive Up
U.S. Farm Input Costs
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 17
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Oct. 17
Today’s Updates:
UP FRONT
— Rollins: U.S. to open new lands for ranching to curb beef prices
— Trump confronts the realities of the cattle cycle
— Beef imports to the rescue?
— Thune urges House to reconsider stopgap date as shutdown persists
— Grassley: Trump ‘has to’ strike China deal to revive soybean sales
— Trump predicts “fantastic” trade deal with China
— Trump, Australia’s Albanese seal rare earths pact to curb China dependence
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global markets drift as trade tension fears ease
— Equities yesterday: Market recap and index changes
— GM raises guidance after beating Wall Street expectations
— Are negative trade headlines a risk to this equity rally?
AG MARKETS
— Brazil begins planting record acreage amid soaring demand but tight margins
— Brazil’s chicken meat exports poised for record in 2025
— Agriculture markets yesterday: Futures recap and price changes
FARM POLICY
— Grassley urges enforcement of existing antitrust laws on farm input costs
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices steady after Monday’s decline amid oversupply concerns
— Oil prices hit five-month low Monday amid glut fears and trade tensions
— API withdraws support for standalone year-round E15 bill
TRADE POLICY
— U.S./Canada trade deal nearing completion ahead of APEC summit
— Trump administration warns China over sanctions on foreign companies
SUPREME COURT
— Supreme Court told Trump’s tariffs are illegal $3 trillion tax
CONGRESS
— Kentucky Republicans buck Trump on key policies
EU POLICY
— EU to propose six-month delay in deforestation law enforcement
BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR
— Beth Ford warns labor shortage could spark a ‘black swan event’ in U.S. agriculture
WEATHER
— NWS: Chilly and showery across the Great Lakes; record warmth in southern Texas
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Oct. 21, 2025
Up frontDespite a government shutdown, expanding trade war, and data blackout, the S&P 500 continues its surge — up about 35% since President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in April, according to Morgan Stanley. Investors are bracing for earnings season to test whether tariff costs start denting profits, as GM raises its full-year outlook and said tariffs costs were lower than expected. Lower oil prices near $58 are easing inflation pressures, potentially allowing the Fed more room to cut rates and a boost to the U.S. housing market. Yet analysts warn of overheating: small-cap stocks are soaring faster than the S&P despite weak fundamentals, and wealth gaps are widening as affluent Americans keep spending while lower-income households retrench. On the policy front, Trump and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins are signaling ways they will take to boost beef supply and temper beef prices, to the chagrin of U.S. livestock producers. In the energy sector, year-round E15 proponents got negative news from the API which withdrew its support for a standalone bill, pending reforms tied to ethanol expansion. Abroad, Canada’s inflation rate quickens to 2.4% ahead of BoC rate decision while Japan elected its first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, and the U.S. struck a rare earths pact with Australia and banks grew wary over Argentina’s $20 billion U.S.-backed bailout. —Rollins: U.S. to open new lands for ranching to curb beef pricesUSDA Secretary Rollins says plan aims to ease supply constraints and boost processing capacityThe U.S. government is preparing to unveil “a pretty big” initiative to open additional lands for ranching in a bid to bring down soaring beef prices, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told CNBC.Rollins said the Trump administration also plans to simplify regulations for meat processing facilities to increase domestic capacity. “We’re making it easier to operate processing plants,” she said, adding that the announcement could come later this week.Separately, Rollins noted that while President Donald Trump is in talks with Argentina regarding beef imports, any purchases from the South American country “wouldn’t be significant from the U.S. point of view.”  Source: DataLiner—Trump confronts the realities of the cattle cycleEfforts to lower beef prices run up against long-term supply dynamics and market realities President Donald Trump’s push to bring down U.S. beef prices — including recent comments about importing Argentine beef — is colliding with an immovable force of agricultural economics: the cattle cycle. Despite the White House’s determination to show quick results on food inflation, the realities of livestock production mean meaningful change is unlikely to come soon. The cattle cycle, a well-known pattern among producers and economists, typically spans about 10 years and reflects how ranchers respond to shifting prices and drought conditions. When prices rise, herds expand; when feed costs soar or drought reduces grazing capacity, ranchers liquidate animals. These supply adjustments ripple through the market for years, leading to predictable but stubborn swings in beef prices. Today’s high prices are a byproduct of years of contraction. Severe drought in the Plains forced ranchers to send breeding cows to slaughter, sharply reducing the national herd. Rebuilding those numbers takes time — at least two to three years before new calves reach feedlots and slaughter weight. Even as feed costs ease and pasture conditions improve, the supply response will lag far behind any political timetable. Trump’s musings about importing Argentine beef have drawn swift criticism from U.S. cattle producers, who argue that short-term imports would undercut domestic ranchers without offering lasting relief to consumers. • The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association warned that such a move could “create chaos” in the market and expose the U.S. to disease risks, while doing little to offset structural supply tightness. NCBA cited Argentina’s history of having foot and mouth disease (FMD) present, noting it would be devastating if it arrived in the U.S.• United States Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) President Justin Tupper said “government intervention is not needed in an industry that is already correcting in response to years of market pressure… Already this year, the U.S. has imported more than 1.26 million metric tons of beef, primarily from Australia, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and New Zealand. Increasing imports under current rules ultimately benefits foreign suppliers and multinational packers, while putting U.S. ranchers on the losing end and depriving American consumers of honest transparency at the meat counter.”• “More imports from Argentina will benefit the global packers without helping consumers,” Bill Bullard, chief executive officer of cattle producer group R-CALF USA, said. “• Excessive imports have displaced domestic production and domestic cattle.” Iowa Farm Bureau Federation President Brent Johnson: “We encourage the administration to resist actions that negatively impact the cattle farmers in Iowa and domestic beef production and [we are] sharing information with the Iowa congressional delegation to discuss further.” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) directly addressed President Trump’s recent remarks about lowering beef prices during an interview on AgriTalk (Link). His comments were pointed and grounded in historical perspective: “The President ought to keep his mouth shut about beef prices,” Grassley said, adding he had just discussed the issue during a “Grassley farm discussion” over the weekend, noting that cattle prices had dropped after Trump’s comments. He warned that presidential intervention or even public commentary on beef prices could destabilize markets, invoking lessons from the Nixon administration: “I would give a president this advice on two things that I always say Nixon did wrong… One was to keep interest rates so low so he could be re-elected in 1972… And the second thing is, Nixon froze beef prices for just three months… and soon after that, we (Iowa) became 10th or 12th [in beef production].” Grassley stressed that Nixon’s short-term price controls hurt Iowa’s beef industry for years and said the U.S. only recently regained its place as a top beef producer. His warning to Trump was clear — political efforts to influence cattle markets can backfire, hurting producers rather than helping consumers. Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said in a statement that she’s been in touch with the Trump administration and her colleagues on Capitol Hill to express “deep concerns… I strongly encourage the Trump administration to focus on trade deals that benefit our ag producers — not imports that will do more harm than good,” she added. Farm Bureau reacts. “We urge the administration to carefully consider the damage importing more beef and cattle from other countries will have as cattle farmers decide whether to invest in rebuilding America’s herds,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said in a statement Monday. “Flooding markets with foreign-grown beef could affect our nation’s ability to be food independent in the long term.” National Farmers Union President Rob Larew said in a statement the group was also against importing beef from Argentina, noting the recent news between the U.S. and Argentina. “The last thing we need is to reward them by importing more of their beef,” Larew said. He said importing foreign beef would be a form of “undercutting American ranchers” and said “restoring fairness” in the market should be the target to lower grocery store prices. “In times of extreme uncertainty in the farm economy, we should be doubling down on our efforts to support family farmers and ranchers here at home,” Larew said. “The answer isn’t foreign beef; it’s rebuilding herds to meet domestic demand, restoring competition in meatpacking, enacting mandatory country-of-origin labeling so consumers know where their beef comes from, and creating a fair marketplace that works for both farmers and consumers.” Ultimately, the president’s challenge underscores a broader truth: agricultural markets do not bend easily to executive will. The cattle cycle — shaped by biology, weather, and time — is indifferent to political promises. While tariff relief or trade adjustments may alter margins at the edges, the underlying supply constraints will persist well into 2026, keeping beef one of the toughest inflation fronts for any administration to tackle. Perspective: The Trump administration touts the actions they took to increase egg supplies and bring down egg prices by importing eggs and other actions to repopulate laying barns. But it only takes 4 to 6 months for a hatched chicken to start laying eggs versus years in the cattle cycle. —Beef imports to the rescue?Oklahoma State University analysis finds limited U.S. price relief from Argentine beef imports Could beef imports from Argentina help lower U.S. beef prices? According to Oklahoma State University Extension economist Derrell Peel, who authored the Cow-Calf Corner analysis (link), the answer is largely no. Argentina ranks as the sixth largest beef producer and fifth largest exporter globally, contributing about 6% of global beef exports — roughly one-quarter of total U.S. production. While Argentine beef exports have expanded, mainly serving China, Israel, the EU, and the U.S., its domestic market still consumes 70–75% of its own output. U.S. imports of Argentine beef represent just 2.1% of total imports so far in 2025, though they were up 41.7% year-over-year through July before the government shutdown paused new data releases. Peel notes that even if the U.S. doubled imports from Argentina, it would come largely at the expense of Argentine domestic consumption or other export markets and would still represent less than 2.5% of total U.S. beef supply. Most Argentine imports are lean processing beef used for ground beef, like imports from Brazil. With new tariffs likely curbing Brazilian shipments, Argentine beef could offset only a fraction of that loss. Peel concludes that any increase in Argentine imports would have a “very slight — and probably undetectable — impact” on U.S. beef prices, merely helping to moderate ground beef inflation rather than bringing broad-based price relief. —Thune urges House to reconsider stopgap date as shutdown persistsSenate GOP leader signals softening toward extending funding beyond Nov. 21 Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said Monday that the House should consider returning to Washington to adjust the proposed stopgap spending bill’s end date beyond Nov. 21, as the government shutdown — now the longest on record — continues. “For sure, every day that passes, we have less time to fund the government,” Thune told reporters. “Every week that drags by, it’s going to become harder and harder to actually have a normal appropriations process.” Thune meant that Congress won’t have enough time to finish all 12 appropriations bills by the Nov. 21 deadline. Thune said Democrats who care about the appropriations process should vote for a CR so that the Senate can resume its work on full-year funding bills, “which pushes us into a long-term CR mode. And I just don’t think that’s the way we ought to be funding the government.” The Senate has repeatedly voted on the short-term measure (HR 5371), which maintains last year’s funding levels through Nov. 21. The House, recessed since Sept. 19, passed that initial bill but has not reconvened to make adjustments. Thune’s remarks mark a notable shift among Senate Republicans, signaling growing unease with Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) strategy of keeping the House away during the shutdown. Johnson has maintained that another continuing resolution would be pointless, blaming Senate Democrats for blocking progress. Last week, Senate Democrats blocked a procedural vote on a defense appropriations measure (HR 4016), which Thune said could be reconsidered if Democrats have “a change of heart.” Otherwise, he added, “I’m not sure there’s a lot of value in reconsidering it.” —Grassley: Trump ‘has to’ strike China deal to revive soybean salesIowa senator urges president to devote personal time to trade negotiations A top priority. In his AgriTalk interview, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said President Donald Trump must make a renewed trade agreement with China a top priority to restore American soybean exports. Grassley noted that while U.S. and Chinese trade teams were preparing to meet again, the stakes remain high for Iowa’s farmers. “He has to,” Grassley said of Trump’s efforts. “We’ll never get our soybeans sold there” without a deal. The senator emphasized that although it’s appropriate for lower-level negotiators to start discussions, the president himself should become deeply involved. “The President needs to spend a massive amount of time, even some of his personal time, on dealing with China,” he said, calling it “a top priority.” Grassley’s comments underscored Iowa’s dependence on Chinese demand for soybeans and reflected farmers’ growing anxiety that trade tensions continue to limit export opportunities. —Trump predicts “fantastic” trade deal with ChinaPresident strikes upbeat tone ahead of APEC summit, but analysts warn challenges remain President Donald Trump said he believes a “fantastic” trade agreement with China is within reach, signaling optimism ahead of his planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. “I think we’re going to end up having a fantastic deal with China,” Trump told reporters Monday while hosting Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. “It’s going to be fantastic for both countries, and it’s going to be fantastic for the entire world.” Trump downplayed recent tensions, saying, “[China] threatened us with rare earths, and I threatened them with tariffs.” He added that if no agreement is reached, he will impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports beginning Nov. 1. Beijing and Washington have maintained a tenuous truce amid Trump’s escalating tariff threats and China’s countermeasures. With less than two weeks before the summit, negotiators face mounting pressure to deliver progress. Analysts at Trivium China cautioned that Trump’s rhetoric “glosses over the scope and complexity of U.S./China economic tensions,” noting that “even if the leaders shake hands in San Francisco, the follow-up talks will be long, grueling, and littered with dead ends.” Bottom Line: While Trump’s upbeat tone may set a positive atmosphere for his meeting with Xi, experts say any breakthrough will depend on the difficult technical work that follows — particularly over industrial subsidies, data controls, and enforcement mechanisms. —Trump, Australia’s Albanese seal rare earths pact to curb China dependenceDeal promises $8.5 billion in new mineral projects and processing expansion President Donald Trump signed an agreement with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to expand U.S. access to critical minerals and rare earth elements, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. “In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them,” Trump said during a White House meeting with Albanese. The Australian leader called the deal an $8.5 billion “pipeline that we have ready to go,” noting it includes new processing projects in Australia and expanded capacity for refining rare earths used in advanced manufacturing and defense technologies. Trump said he anticipates discussing rare earths, fentanyl, soybeans and China’s ambitions regarding Taiwan when he and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet next week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea. Trump sidestepped questions about whether he expected China to propose trade concessions in exchange for greater control over the island. “I assume that’s going to be one of the things, but I’m not going to talk about that now,” Trump told reporters during the meeting with Albanese. The agreement was good news for Australian miners with their shares jumping in Sydney. In the U.S., shares in Cleveland-Cliffs rallied yesterday after the U.S. steelmaker said it is evaluating whether rare earth minerals can be extracted from its mines.  Trump suggested he was unlikely to offer Australia tariff relief, which Canberra has sought as a nation that runs a trade deficit with the US. Trump hit Australian goods with a 10% duty, the baseline the president imposed on many other countries’ products. “Australia pays very low tariffs — very, very low tariffs,” Trump said. Albanese faces a balancing act on trade as he meets Trump. The Australian leader has also sought closer trade ties with China, his country’s largest trading partner. Albanese visited Beijing in July, his second visit since taking office. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets drifted as investors weighed signs of easing U.S./China trade tensions and receding worries about banking-sector credit risks. On Wall Street, futures slipped into negative territory after U.S. indexes rallied sharply in the previous session. On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Netflix Inc., GE Aerospace, Coca-Cola Co., Philip Morris International Inc., Capital One Financial Corp., Lockheed Martin Corp., General Motors Co., 3M Co., Texas Instruments Inc. and Halliburton Co. In Asia, Japan +0.3%. Hong Kong +0.7%. China +1.4%. India +0.1%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
—Equities yesterday:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Oct. 20 | Point Difference from Oct. 17 | % Difference from Oct. 17 |
| Dow | 46,706.58 | +515.97 | +1.12% |
| Nasdaq | 22,990.54 | +310.57 | +1.37% |
| S&P 500 | 6,735.13 | +71.12 | +1.07% |
—GM raises guidance after beating Wall Street expectations, lowering tariff costs. General Motors beat earnings expectations on the top and bottom lines. The automaker also raised its guidance for the year and said it was expecting a smaller tariff impact than previously forecast. GM stock jumped 10% on earnings beat.
—Are negative trade headlines a risk to this equity rally?
Sevens Report says markets remain calm despite renewed U.S.–China tensions
According to the Sevens Report, renewed tariff and trade headlines are once again stirring volatility, but analysts suggest markets are taking them largely in stride. “After several months of relative quiet, tariff and trade news became a source of market volatility and increased investor anxiety,” the report noted. Yet the authors add that while the “facts around the U.S.–China trade relationship have deteriorated,” investors still expect “cooler heads will prevail,” keeping the fallout limited.
The report highlights that this latest trade flare-up is narrower than earlier in the year — focused specifically on rare earth minerals, semiconductor chips, and soybeans. “Rare earths have quickly become a major source of trade tension,” the authors wrote, pointing out that China’s control of global supply has given it leverage, while U.S. companies hold dominance in advanced chipmaking. At the same time, the administration’s need to protect U.S. farmers makes soybean sales a political flashpoint.
President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports by Nov. 1, coupled with potential technology export limits, has injected fresh uncertainty into markets. Still, the Sevens Report says investors have not overreacted, especially as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier Lifeng are expected to meet soon in Malaysia, followed by a possible Trump/Xi meeting at the APEC Summit. Those developments “helped to calm trade and tariff fears that hit markets a week and a half ago,” the report said.
The authors caution, however, that “other than meetings staying on the schedule, very little has occurred to actually reverse the new U.S.–China trade tensions.” If diplomacy fails, they warn, “concerns about trade will hit markets in the coming weeks.” For now, equity markets remain buoyed by optimism about economic growth and artificial intelligence trends, rather than fear of a new trade war.
Bottom Line: The Sevens Report concludes, “as long as markets expect that ‘cooler heads will prevail,’ then scary trade headlines (and tariff threats) are unlikely to meaningfully hit this market.”
| AG MARKETS |
—Brazil begins planting record acreage amid soaring demand but tight margins
Biofuel expansion and China’s soybean demand fuel record acreage, but profits are under pressure, says farmdoc daily
According to farmdoc daily (link), Brazil has begun the 2025/26 planting season with expectations of record acreage in both soybeans and corn, fueled by robust biofuel demand and booming exports—especially to China. However, analysts warn that profit margins are narrowing sharply due to rising costs and falling prices. “Farmers across Brazil have begun planting the 2025/26 crop season, with expectations for another record in corn and soybean acreage,” wrote authors Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. They cite the National Supply Company (Conab), which projects soybean area up 3.5% to 121 million acres, the largest ever. Corn area is also set to expand 4% to 56 million acres.
Soybeans: Record area but negative margins loom. Domestic biodiesel demand remains a key driver. Brazil raised its biodiesel mandate from B14 to B15 on Aug. 1, a move expected to boost total biodiesel use by 7% under the Fuel of the Future program. International demand — especially from China — is also surging: 77% of Brazil’s 3.45 billion bushels of soybean exports between January and September went to China, up 5% from last year.
But despite export strength, profitability is eroding. Citing data from Brazil’s Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea/USP), Colussi and Langemeier note that soybean gross margins are projected to fall from $165 to $105 per acre, and when land and interest costs are included, “margins are projected to turn negative (–$90 per acre).”
Corn: Ethanol demand offsets declining yields. Corn planting is expanding even as production is expected to fall 2% year-over-year to 5.46 billion bushels. Domestic demand from the livestock and corn-ethanol industries is growing rapidly—corn ethanol now accounts for 20% of Brazil’s total biofuel output, according to farmdoc daily’s April 2025 report. Still, Cepea projects that gross margins will shrink from $75 to $6 per acre, turning into losses of about $135 per acre once all costs are factored in.
Outlook: Expansion under strain. The authors conclude that while Brazil’s farmers “continue to gain ground in global markets,” profitability pressures from rising input costs, lower commodity prices, and high interest rates could slow future expansion. “If margins remain tight,” they write, “Brazilian future production growth should rely more on efficiency gains… than on further area expansion.”
—Brazil’s chicken meat exports poised for record in 2025
EU demand rebounds as Brazil’s poultry sector overcomes avian flu setback
Brazil’s chicken meat exports are on track to hit a record high in 2025, according to new data from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at Esalq/USP. The findings mark a strong recovery following the detection of avian flu at a commercial farm in Rio Grande do Sul earlier this year.
Cepea reported that September shipments reached the highest level in 11 months, while daily exports in early October were 9.6% higher than in September and 16% above October 2024, based on data from Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex).
Researchers credited the rebound largely to renewed purchases from the European Union, which has resumed buying Brazilian poultry at a growing pace after prior restrictions. “This rebound has been crucial in restoring Brazil’s export rhythm to pre-avian flu levels,” Cepea said.
However, exports to China remain suspended, limiting further gains. Should Beijing lift its import restrictions, total export volumes could climb even higher.
Cepea cautioned that achieving a record in 2025 hinges on continued sanitary stability and avoiding new outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1). Maintaining international confidence in Brazil’s poultry health standards, the report said, will be essential for keeping its place among the world’s top chicken meat suppliers.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Oct. 20 | Change from Oct. 17 |
| Corn | December | $4.23 1/4 | +3/4¢ |
| Soybeans | November | $10.31 3/4 | +12 1/4¢ |
| Soybean Meal | December | $285.00 | +$4.00 |
| Soybean Oil | December | 51.31¢ | +18 pts |
| SRW Wheat | December | $5.04 3/4 | +1¢ |
| HRW Wheat | December | $4.90 | -1 1/2¢ |
| Spring Wheat | December | $5.48 1/2 | Unchanged |
| Cotton | December | 64.16¢ | -12 pts |
| Live Cattle | December | $243.65 | +$1.825 |
| Feeder Cattle | November | $372.675 | +97 1/2¢ |
| Lean Hogs | December | $82.075 | -30¢ |
| FARM POLICY |
—Grassley urges enforcement of existing antitrust laws on farm input costs
Senator says DOJ and FTC should act before Congress steps in
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) told AgriTalk that growing concern among farmers about the high cost of inputs such as fertilizer, seed, equipment, and pesticides stems from too much industry consolidation. Asked what message he had for producers seeking to break up monopolies in those sectors, Grassley said he would wait for federal agencies to complete their investigations before proposing new legislation.
“I’m gonna wait until the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission get done with their investigations before I make a decision on it,” Grassley said. “I don’t think we have to pass any laws. The antitrust laws have been in existence for 130 or 140 years. Just use those laws as they’ve been used for the last 100 years. They’re pretty effective laws.”
He added that enforcement, not new statutes, is the key: “It just takes the government enforced to get it done… the free market system dictates you don’t have monopolies.”
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices held steady Tuesday after falling yesterday as concerns about oversupply and risks to demand, along with the trade dispute between the U.S. and China weigh on the markets. Brent crude futures were little changed at $61.01 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) contract for November delivery, set to expire today, was down 15 cents at $57.37. The more active December contract was steady at $57.02.
Meanwhile, Japan’s trade minister said the country aims to curb dependence on Russian liquefied natural gas, but can’t immediately halt imports despite growing pressure from the U.S.
—Oil prices hit five-month low Monday amid glut fears and U.S./China tensions
Market flips into contango as supply outlook overshadows demand worries
Oil prices fell to their weakest levels since early May on Monday, with Brent settling at $61.01 per barrel (-0.46%) and U.S. WTI at $57.52 (-0.03%), as concerns over oversupply and renewed U.S.–China trade frictions deepened. Both benchmarks briefly slid more than $1 earlier in the session and have now declined for three straight weeks.
Market sentiment has shifted from under-supply fears to expectations of a looming glut. The Brent and WTI six-month spreads turned into contango — where near-term contracts trade below later ones — for the first time since spring, signaling expectations of growing inventories and potential floating storage.
The IEA’s forecast of a major supply surplus in 2026 and rising U.S. drilling activity have added pressure. Analysts expect U.S. crude inventories to have increased by 1.5 million barrels last week. Meanwhile, U.S./China tensions flared anew as both nations imposed additional port fees, raising fears of slower global trade and energy demand. The WTO warned that prolonged decoupling could shave up to 7% off global output.
—API withdraws support for standalone year-round E15 bill
Oil industry group now demands broader reforms tied to ethanol expansion
The American Petroleum Institute (API) has reversed its previous backing of standalone legislation to permit year-round sales of E15 fuel nationwide, according to a letter obtained by Reuters. The group, which had earlier aligned with ethanol producers to advance nationwide access to the 15% ethanol blend, now insists any such measure must be paired with broader reforms addressing the U.S. fuel market’s evolving landscape.
“Refiners are now navigating shifting federal compliance structures, a patchwork of state mandates, and a biofuels marketplace that is uncertain,” API President Mike Sommers wrote to congressional leaders. “Any legislative consideration of year-round E15 should reflect today’s realities and not those of prior years.”
API’s letter calls for more certainty around small refinery exemptions (SREs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), arguing that the exemptions distort the market and penalize refiners investing in compliance. The group also cited concerns over federal reversals of state E10 summertime opt-outs, recent changes to clean fuel tax credits, and proposed limits on renewable fuel compliance credits for imports.
The reversal marks a setback for the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) and National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), which have been pressing Congress to pass a clean year-round E15 bill as a boost to corn farmers facing weaker prices and rising input costs. Without API’s support, ethanol advocates face an added obstacle in securing bipartisan backing for the higher-blend fuel.
| TRADE POLICY |
—U.S./Canada trade deal nearing completion ahead of APEC summit
Carney and Trump could sign agreement on steel, aluminum and energy; auto and lumber issues remain unresolved
A trade agreement covering steel, aluminum, and energy could be ready for Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump to sign at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit later this month, according to reporting by The Globe and Mail. Two senior sources familiar with the discussions told the paper that the deal would bring long-awaited relief to Canada’s metals industry, which has been battered by U.S. tariffs as high as 50% on steel and aluminum.
The negotiations, led by Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister responsible for U.S. trade, along with Privy Council Clerk Michael Sabia and Ambassador Kirsten Hillman, have focused on metals and the possible revival of the Keystone XL pipeline, while talks on automobiles and softwood lumber remain stalled. U.S. officials involved include Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
LeBlanc’s press secretary Gabriel Brunet told The Globe and Mail that “working towards an agreement with the United States is his top priority,” adding that the minister remains engaged with senior U.S. officials.
The sources cited by the paper said “significant progress” has been made in Washington over the past two weeks, noting that Canada may have to accept quotas on steel exports in exchange for lower tariffs. Ottawa, however, continues to oppose any restrictions on aluminum.
The Globe also reported that the talks are exploring ways to restart Keystone XL, the Alberta-to-Texas pipeline canceled under President Biden. “A meeting at APEC between Mr. Carney and Mr. Trump could make all the difference to a successful conclusion,” one source told the newspaper.
Both leaders are expected to attend the APEC summit in South Korea starting Oct. 29, where side meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping are also likely. Prime Minister Carney reportedly hopes to discuss China’s ban on Canadian canola, imposed in retaliation for Ottawa’s decision to block Chinese-made electric vehicles.
Carney, who campaigned on stabilizing Canada’s economy amid U.S. protectionism, has resisted calls from unions and provincial premiers to retaliate against U.S. tariffs. “There are times to hit back and times to talk,” he told reporters last week. “Right now is the time to talk.”
Of note: While a metals and energy agreement appears within reach, the Globe and Mail noted that no progress has been made on auto or lumber tariffs, two pillars of Canada’s export economy. There is also no mention of dairy policy developments in the newspaper account.
—Trump administration warns China over sanctions on foreign companies
USTR Greer accuses Beijing of “economic coercion” after Chinese sanctions target U.S. units of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean Co.
The Trump administration issued a sharp warning to Beijing on Monday, accusing China of weaponizing its economic power to deter foreign investment in U.S. industries. The rebuke followed China’s decision last week to sanction the American subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean Co. for its plans to invest in the US maritime sector.
“China’s recent retaliatory actions against private companies across the globe is part of a broader pattern of economic coercion to influence American politics and control global supply chains by discouraging foreign companies from investing in America’s shipbuilding and other critical industries,” said U.S.Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a statement.
Greer emphasized that “attempts at intimidation will not stop the United States from rebuilding its shipbuilding base,” signaling Washington’s determination to reduce Chinese dominance in global maritime supply chains. The warning comes amid a deepening economic and strategic rivalry between the world’s two largest economies — one that spans shipbuilding, port control, and rare earths.
China, which accounts for over half of global shipbuilding, has sought to expand its influence in the South China Sea and over key global ports. The United States, by contrast, has limited domestic shipbuilding capacity and is turning to South Korea — the world’s second-largest shipbuilder — to help revive its maritime industry.
The maritime standoff has intensified in recent weeks, with both nations imposing new port fees on each other’s vessels. Washington has also announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports of essential port equipment and floated a 150% tax on cargo-handling machinery, part of President Donald Trump’s effort to limit China’s control of global port infrastructure, including around the Panama Canal.
The confrontation underscores how deeply shipping and industrial policy have become entwined in the broader U.S./China rivalry. President Trump, set to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week at the APEC summit in South Korea, told reporters earlier Monday that he expects to discuss China’s territorial ambitions toward Taiwan — though he declined to say whether trade concessions would be linked to those talks.
| SUPREME COURT |
Supreme Court told Trump’s tariffs are illegal $3 trillion tax
Small businesses urge justices to strike down Trump’s emergency powers tariffs under 1977 law
Small businesses are asking the U.S. Supreme Court to uphold lower court rulings that found President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs to be an illegal tax on American companies, Bloomberg’s Erik Larson reported.
The high court will hear arguments on Nov. 5 over whether Trump had authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs of 10%–50% on most U.S. imports — levies his administration justified by declaring U.S. trade deficits a national emergency.
In filings Monday, Learning Resources Inc. and other firms said Trump “usurped Congress’s power to tax,” warning that his actions amounted to a $3 trillion tax increase on Americans over the next decade. Another group led by V.O.S. Selections Inc., a wine and liquor distributor, said Trump’s actions defied the founders’ intent by letting the president “impose tariffs on the American people whenever he wants.”
The tariffs — including Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” measures and levies on Canada, Mexico, and China — remain in place despite federal rulings that he exceeded his authority. The Supreme Court’s expedited schedule suggests it aims to resolve the high-stakes dispute quickly.
| CONGRESS |
—Kentucky Republicans buck Trump on key policies
Fiscal hawks and institutional conservatives from the Bluegrass State are breaking with the president over spending, tariffs, and executive power
Even in one of Donald Trump’s strongest political bastions, a handful of Kentucky Republicans are drawing sharp lines against several of the president’s hallmark policies, exposing the ideological fractures inside today’s GOP.
Rep. Thomas Massie, Sen. Rand Paul, and Senate elder Mitch McConnell have each opposed Trump on major initiatives — from tariffs to expansive spending bills — reflecting deep-rooted conservative and libertarian instincts that clash with the president’s populist agenda.
Massie’s libertarian rebellion. Rep. Thomas Massie, who represents Kentucky’s 4th District, has emerged as one of the most consistent critics of Trump’s economic policies. The libertarian-leaning lawmaker has voted against several high-spending bills backed by the White House and introduced legislation restricting government propaganda, prompting Trump to call for his ouster. Massie argues that ballooning deficits and the concentration of executive power betray conservative principles. “If we lose fiscal restraint and constitutional boundaries, what’s left of conservatism?” he said recently.
Rand Paul’s trade and spending skepticism. Sen. Rand Paul, long associated with the libertarian wing of the GOP, has also criticized Trump’s trade wars and fiscal policies. Paul warns that tariffs — particularly on Chinese and European goods — threaten key Kentucky industries such as bourbon, manufacturing, and agriculture.
While often supportive of Trump’s judicial and deregulatory efforts, Paul has voted against omnibus spending packages, saying they “mortgage our children’s future for short-term political gains.”
McConnell’s institutional independence. Sen. Mitch McConnell, once Trump’s most influential ally in Congress, has increasingly distanced himself from the president’s impulsive policy moves. He has publicly criticized Trump’s global tariff strategy, declaring that “trade wars hurt working people most,” and has slowed or rejected some Trump nominees he deemed unqualified or overtly partisan. As a Senate traditionalist, McConnell has sought to preserve legislative independence against Trump’s expanding executive reach — a position that has at times drawn public rebukes from the president.
Ideological roots of a rift. Their opposition reflects a broader divide within the GOP: a conflict between populist nationalism and classical conservatism. Massie and Paul adhere to a Jeffersonian vision of limited government and fiscal restraint. McConnell operates from an institutionalist view of power, wary of destabilizing norms.
While Trump’s policies remain broadly popular with Kentucky’s voters, these lawmakers view their dissent as a defense of constitutional principles and local economic interests. As one observer noted, “Even in the reddest states, Trumpism is meeting resistance — not from Democrats, but from the old-guard conservatives who helped build the Republican Party itself.”
| EU POLICY |
—EU to propose six-month delay in deforestation law enforcement
Brussels aims to ease compliance for small farmers and reduce due diligence burdens on importers
The European Union plans to grant companies six months of leeway to comply with its landmark Deforestation Regulation, softening — but not shelving — implementation of one of the world’s most ambitious environmental trade laws.
The regulation, which targets commodities linked to global forest loss such as soy, coffee, beef, and palm oil, will still take effect at the end of 2025. But according to reports, firms will be shielded from sanctions during the initial transition period.
The European Commission’s proposal also simplifies compliance for smallholder farmers, who would only need to make a single declaration in the bloc’s IT system if they are not already listed in an EU database. Additionally, companies would only be required to perform due diligence at the point of entry into the EU market—rather than tracing deforestation risks further down the value chain.
The revised approach follows pushback from member states and agribusiness groups, who warned that the law’s bureaucracy risked penalizing EU farmers and choking trade. Yet the six-month grace period falls short of the one-year delay some industry groups had sought.
EU Environment Commissioner Jessika Roswall, who previously cited IT system capacity issues as a reason for postponement, faced resistance within the Commission over broader delays. Environmental groups, meanwhile, welcomed the shorter reprieve as a sign that the EU remains committed to curbing deforestation.
Markets responded calmly to the announcement, with cocoa, coffee, and soybean futures ticking higher amid expectations of steadier compliance timelines.
| BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR |
—Beth Ford warns labor shortage could spark a ‘black swan event’ in U.S. agriculture
Land O’Lakes CEO calls for expanded legal immigration to stabilize the farm workforce
At the Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit, Land O’Lakes CEO Beth Ford issued a stark warning: without more legal immigration, the U.S. agricultural sector could face a catastrophic “black swan event” caused by chronic labor shortages. “While there might be some discussion on undocumented, et cetera, this is critical for the health of the economy,” Ford said in conversation with Fortune’s Emma Hinchliffe. “They absolutely need labor, and if they don’t have it, that’s yet another element—and it could be a black swan event for a farmer if they don’t have somebody who can help and be on [the] farm.”
Ford, who chairs the Business Roundtable’s immigration committee, stressed that farmers are “struggling to get American labor” and that “we need more legal immigration” not only for farms but for the broader economy. The Business Roundtable — representing over 200 major U.S. CEOs — supports expanding skilled immigration, improving visa programs, and tightening border management.
Citing USDA data, Ford noted that only about 32% of crop farmworkers were born in the U.S., while 42% lack work authorization, and over half of dairy workers — a key sector for Land O’Lakes — are foreign-born. “Most CEOs will say we need some kind of change in our immigration policy,” she added, acknowledging that border crossings have declined sharply by roughly 95% in recent months.
Ford warned that labor disruptions can cripple farms within hours: “If cows aren’t milked, they start to leak milk and could develop infections… farmers might be forced to cull their herds.” The Labor Department has also cautioned that recent enforcement efforts by ICE could have “significant labor market effects in the agricultural sector” and even put “the nation’s food supply at risk.”
Ford’s remarks underscore a growing alarm among agricultural and business leaders that restrictive immigration policies threaten both rural livelihoods and national food security.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Chilly and showery weather across the Great Lakes with lake-effect
thunderstorm bands possible near Lake Erie today and Wednesday… …Late October near record warmth across southern Texas today.
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