Senate Clears CR; House to Vote Wed. Afternoon
House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) will retire from Congress
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 7
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 7
Today’s Updates:
CONGRESS & GOVERNMENT FUNDING
— Senate passes CR, sends measure to House;
White House backs deal to reopen government
— CR extends Farm Bill through 2026, restores CCC borrowing authority,
funds food aid transfer plan
— ACA premium tax credits remain; enhanced subsidies lapse but could be extended
in December vote
— Rand Paul’s hemp amendment defeated 76–24;
ban on unregulated intoxicating hemp products remains
— GOP senators gain legal recourse to sue over seized phone records from
Jan. 6 probe
— House vote expected Wednesday afternoon; Trump says he’ll sign bill as Johnson
faces thin majority and potential GOP defections
— House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) will retire from Congress
— CBO: Fiscal Year 2026 opens with $219 billion deficit
TRADE & FOREIGN POLICY
— Trump says he’ll reduce India’s tariff rate but doesn’t say when
— EU eases green rules in farm subsidy overhaul
— China signals readiness to rebuild ties with Canada
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Bond markets closed for Veterans Day; equities open as usual
— Equities yesterday: Risk-on rally amid optimism shutdown deal nears end
FOOD & AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY
— Tyson’s chicken boom defies Trump’s price-fixing claims
AGRICULTURE MARKETS
— Looking ahead at USDA Nov. 14 corn and soybean estimates
— Brazil faces up to $4 billion soybean export hit from Trump/Xi pact
— Brazil sets record in soybean meal exports, expands market reach
— China authorizes Brazilian facilities to export DDGs and sorghum
— Agriculture markets yesterday
WOTUS
— EPA to unveil next steps on WOTUS rule
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices steady as oversupply offsets sanctions on Russia
— Oil prices edge higher Monday amid refinery outages, sanctions
TRADE POLICY
— USCA praises renewed congressional push to reinstate MCOOL for beef
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Charlie Cook warns Democrats against overreading Mamdani’s NYC victory
FOOD & SNAP POLICY
— Trump administration seeks Supreme Court intervention in SNAP funding dispute
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Cold in Southeast and Florida; snow in Great Lakes/Northeast;
atmospheric river for West Coast midweek
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 11, 2025
Up Front— Senate clears stopgap bill, eyes House vote Wednesday The Senate passed the continuing resolution 60–40 to fund the government through Jan. 30. It restores USDA’s full CCC authority, extends the 2018 Farm Bill through Sept. 2026, funds SNAP and VA for the full year, and directs USDA–State coordination on Food for Peace. The bill omits enhanced ObamaCare subsidies but keeps base credits. President Trump said he’ll sign it.— House vote Wed. afternoon to test Johnson’s majority Speaker Mike Johnson faces a two-vote margin, with potential GOP defections from Reps. Greene, Massie, Spartz, and Davidson. Democrats largely oppose the measure but several centrists — Cuellar, Golden, Gluesenkamp Perez, Gonzalez, and Lee — may cross over.— Trump pledges India tariff relief President Trump said tariffs on India will be reduced after New Delhi “very substantially” cut Russian oil purchases, hinting at a near-term trade deal but offering no timeline.— EU relaxes farm green rules amid protests EU governments and Parliament struck a deal exempting small farms from environmental conditions tied to subsidies, cutting inspections and paperwork to save €1.6 billion annually. Critics say the reforms weaken climate safeguards.— China seeks to rebuild ties with Canada Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Canadian counterpart that China is ready to resume cooperation, following Xi Jinping’s APEC meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney. The thaw could reopen China’s $3.5 billion market for Canadian canola exports.— Arrington to retire at end of term House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said he will not seek reelection in 2026, ending a decade-long tenure focused on fiscal discipline and entitlement reform.— CBO: FY 2026 deficit opens at $219 billion October’s deficit was $39 billion smaller than last year as tax receipts rose on higher payrolls and customs duties. Outlays were lower than expected due to shutdown-related payment delays.— Tyson’s chicken profits counter Trump’s price-fixing claims Tyson’s quarterly earnings beat forecasts, driven by a 28% rise in chicken operating profit, even as its beef division lost $94 million amid record cattle costs. The company projects 2–4% sales growth in 2026.— Brazil faces $4 billion soybean export hit from Trump-Xi deal China’s resumption of large-scale U.S. soybean imports under the Trump-Xi agreement could trim Brazil’s export earnings by up to $4 billion over six months, reducing its dominance in China’s market.— Brazil sets record in soybean meal exports Soybean meal shipments hit 19.6 million tonnes from January–October, driven by strong demand from Europe and Asia. Total soybean exports reached 100.6 million tonnes, up 6.7% year-over-year.— China approves Brazilian DDG and sorghum exports Beijing authorized 15 Brazilian facilities to export DDGs and sorghum, deepening agricultural trade ties and expanding access for Brazil’s corn-ethanol and feed industries.— EPA poised to unveil next WOTUS step With OMB review completed Nov. 7, EPA will soon issue its “Final Clarifying Definition” proposal for Waters of the U.S., addressing Supreme Court criteria for “relatively permanent” and “continuous surface connection.”— Oil prices steady as sanctions bite, glut grows Crude traded near $64 Brent and $60 WTI as new U.S. sanctions on Russia lifted refined-product margins but oversupply capped gains. Lukoil declared force majeure at an Iraqi field amid restrictions.— USCA hails new push for beef origin labeling The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association praised Reps. Hageman and Zinke for reviving mandatory country-of-origin labeling, calling it key to restoring consumer trust and fair competition for U.S. producers.— Charlie Cook: Democrats risk overreading Mamdani win Cook warns Democrats not to treat Zohran Mamdani’s narrow NYC mayoral victory as a national signal, arguing progressives could “seize defeat from the jaws of victory” by pushing left-wing platforms in swing states.— DOJ asks Supreme Court to intervene in SNAP dispute The Trump administration seeks a stay blocking lower-court orders to pay full food-stamp benefits during the shutdown, arguing judges are intruding on budget authority. A Massachusetts judge sharply rebuked USDA’s handling.— Markets rise on shutdown optimism Stocks surged Monday — Dow +0.8%, Nasdaq +2.3%, S&P +1.5% — as investors bet the CR would end the shutdown. Bond markets were closed for Veterans Day.— NWS forecast Cold across the Southeast and Florida; snow persists in the Great Lakes and New England; an atmospheric river to hit the West Coast late Wednesday. — The Senate approved the CR Monday night and sent it on to the House for a vote as early as Wednesday.White House endorses deal to reopen the gov’t The Senate on Monday passed a gov’t funding package. The 60-40 vote sends the measure to the House, which is expected to consider it beginning Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET. Besides extending funding for the rest of the government through Jan. 30, the measure provides full-year funding for the Agriculture Department, Veterans Affairs, and the legislative branch; funds food-assistance programs, at a higher level, through next September; reverses the layoffs of thousands of federal workers since Oct. 1; blocks further layoffs through the end of January; and will help air traffic resume to meet an expected holiday crush. Of note: The package extends provisions of the 2018 Farm Bill through September 2026, and a partial extension of the U.S. Grain Standards Act. It also reimburses USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) back to its $30 billion borrowing authority. The bill also includes a requirement that USDA work with the State Dept. to prepare a process transferring the Food for Peace food aid program from State to USDA. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has also promised Democrats a vote on legislation by mid-December to extend the current ObamaCare subsidies. That measure, which would require 60 votes to pass, faces long odds in the Republican-controlled Senate and even less chance of advancing in the House, where House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) would be unlikely to bring it up amid widespread opposition in his party. In a 53-to-47 party-line vote, Republicans defeated a last-ditch effort by Democrats on Monday night to try to add a proposal to the spending package that would extend the ObamaCare credits for one year. The “regular” ACA/ObamaCare premium tax credits remain in law and aren’t being cut by the CR. What is not extended by the CR are the enhanced subsidies (Covid-era/ARPA/IRA enhancements) that reduced enrollee costs further and expanded eligibility. The CR does not prevent those enhanced subsidies from being extended later — it simply does not include them now. A December vote is still on the table. Of note: According to Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), with the enhanced credits in place, the average premium payment after subsidies for a marketplace enrollee was about $888 per year (in 2024/2025) for those receiving subsidies. If the enhanced credits expire (so reverting to the standard schedule), that average payment is projected to rise to about $1,904 per year in 2026 — more than double. Senators also defeated an effort by Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to remove language from the bill that would effectively ban the unregulated sale of intoxicating hemp-derived products. It was rejected on a bipartisan vote of 76 to 24, allowing the ban to stand. The legislation also includes a provision that would provide a wide legal avenue for Republican senators whose phone records were seized as part of the investigation by Jack Smith, the former special counsel, into the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to sue the government for at least half a million dollars each. The measure goes next to the House, which is expected to take it up no sooner than Wednesday and where the small Republican margin of control and intense Democratic opposition could make for a close vote. President Trump has indicated that he will sign it. “We’ll be opening up our country very quickly,” Trump said, calling the package “very good.” Of note: Speaker Johnson faces a razor-thin, two-vote margin and will need every possible supporter. House GOP leaders are closely monitoring potential defections from Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Thomas Massie (Ky.), Victoria Spartz (Ind.), and Warren Davidson (Ohio) — with Massie viewed as an almost certain “no.” On the other side, Democratic leaders — led by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) — are urging their caucus to oppose the bill, arguing it fails to renew the expiring Obamacare premium tax credits. Even so, several centrist Democrats may break ranks. Reps. Henry Cuellar (Texas), Jared Golden (Maine), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), and Vicente Gonzalez (Texas) are seen as possible “yes” votes. Rep. Susie Lee (Nev.) also signaled openness to supporting the measure during a caucus call Monday. Both Nevada senators, Democrats Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto, backed the spending package in the Senate. —Trump says he’ll reduce India’s tariff Rate But Doesn’t Say WhenPresident cites India’s lower reliance on Russian oil as progress toward a trade deal President Donald Trump said Monday that his administration plans to lower tariff rates for India, though he did not specify when the change would take effect. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump credited New Delhi for sharply reducing its purchases of Russian oil, describing the cut as “very substantial.” The president added that the U.S. is “close to a trade deal” with India but offered no details or timeline. The remarks suggest ongoing negotiations aimed at strengthening bilateral trade ties following months of friction over tariffs and energy policy. —EU eases green rules in farm subsidy overhaulSmaller farms to be exempt from key environmental conditions as Brussels seeks to cut red tape EU member states and the European Parliament reached a provisional deal to reform the bloc’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), easing environmental conditions tied to farm subsidies in response to months of farmer protests. Under the agreement, smaller farms will be exempt from baseline “green” requirements that condition subsidy payments on environmental protection efforts. In turn, these farmers will be eligible for increased payments. Denmark’s Minister for European Affairs, Marie Bjerre, said the reforms will “help the agricultural industry grow and become stronger, boosting the sector’s competitiveness across Europe.” Critics warned the changes weaken climate safeguards and leave farmers more vulnerable to climate change. The European Commission introduced the proposals in May after widespread demonstrations over strict regulations and cheap imports. The overhaul could save farmers up to €1.6 billion ($1.87 billion) annually by reducing compliance checks to once per year. The CAP, valued at roughly €387 billion —a bout one-third of the EU’s 2021–2027 budget — is central to the bloc’s rural and food policies. The reform is part of the EU’s “simplification omnibus” initiative, which aims to reduce bureaucracy and boost competitiveness amid looser regulatory environments in the U.S. and China. The deal still requires formal approval from both the EU Council and Parliament. —China signals readiness to rebuild ties with CanadaForeign Minister Wang Yi says Beijing is willing to resume exchanges and cooperation following Xi/Carney talks at APEC China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Canadian counterpart Anita Anand that Beijing is prepared to resume exchanges and cooperate with Canada across multiple areas, according to state news agency Xinhua. Wang emphasized that both countries’ diplomatic, commercial, and other departments should enhance coordination and address mutual concerns. The remarks followed last month’s meeting between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Mark Carney on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, where the leaders discussed trade issues involving agriculture and electric vehicles. Wang said the meeting signaled a “return of bilateral ties to the right track” after several years of strained relations. Canada’s agriculture minister said in an interview on Monday with Reuters that his weeklong trip to China is evidence of bilateral relations beginning to thaw, something desperately needed by Canada’s farmers and canola exporters. Canada’s canola exports have been effectively blocked from China, at times Canada’s biggest seed export market, for months due to import duties on Canadian canola seed, oil and meal. These were part of China’s response to Canada’s 2024 100% duties on Chinese electric vehicles. Canola sales to China were worth C$4.9 billion ($3.49 billion) in 2024. —House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) will retire from Congress at the end of this term. Arrington, 53, was first elected to Congress in 2016, representing a West Texas district anchored in Lubbock. He has chaired the House Budget Committee since 2023. —CBO: Fiscal Year 2026 opens with $219 billion deficitHigher revenues offset by spending delays and shutdown-related lapses The U.S. government posted a $219 billion budget deficit in October, marking the first month of fiscal year 2026, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The shortfall was $39 billion smaller than October 2024’s deficit, as both revenues and outlays increased compared to a year earlier. Revenues rose by $75 billion, driven by higher individual income and payroll taxes and increased customs duties, while outlays were up $37 billion year-over-year. However, CBO noted that spending was affected by the timing of certain payments that would have otherwise fallen on Nov. 1. The agency also said outlays were smaller than they would have been absent the lapse in discretionary appropriations caused by the government shutdown that began Oct. 1, 2025. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Bond markets are closed in observance of Veterans Day. Equities markets are open for regular hours.
—Equities yesterday: It was a risk-on day, with investors and traders rejoicing what they think is the beginning of the end for the longest government shutdown in history.
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. 10 | Point Difference from Nov. 7 | % Difference from Nov. 7 |
| Dow | 47,368.63 | +381.53 | +0.81% |
| Nasdaq | 23,527.17 | +522.64 | +2.27% |
| S&P 500 | 6,832.43 | +103.63 | +1.54% |
—Tyson’s chicken boom defies Trump’s price-fixing claims
Earnings show poultry strength as beef losses deepen amid record cattle costs
Tyson Foods’ latest earnings undercut President Trump’s accusation that U.S. meatpackers have been colluding to inflate beef prices. While Trump has called for a DOJ antitrust investigation, Tyson’s results show the opposite dynamic: packers are losing money on beef as cattle costs surge and herds shrink.
For the September quarter, Tyson reported adjusted earnings of $1.15 per share, beating Wall Street’s 84-cent forecast. Sales grew 2.2% to $13.86 billion, slightly below expectations. The standout performer was chicken, where sales climbed to $4.41 billion, up 3.7% in volume and 28% in operating profit to $457 million. Tyson credited strong demand for affordable proteins as beef prices hit record levels — $12.26 per pound, up from $10.89 a year earlier.
In contrast, Tyson’s beef business posted a $94 million operational loss, with volumes down 8.4% even as prices rose 17%. CEO Donnie King said consumers are turning toward chicken “as an affordable, high-quality protein” while high feed and cattle costs squeeze packers.
The Meat Institute’s Julie Anna Potts added that beef packers “have been operating at a loss due to a tight cattle supply and strong demand.” Live cattle futures have fallen about 6% in the past month but remain 24% higher than a year ago, leaving processors unable to offset record livestock prices.
Looking ahead, Tyson expects 2%–4% sales growth in fiscal 2026, driven largely by chicken, with adjusted operating income projected between $2.1 billion and $2.3 billion.
The beef segment is forecast to post losses of $400 million to $600 million, as USDA projects a 2% decline in beef and 3% drop in pork production next year, while chicken output edges up 1%.
| AG MARKETS |
—Looking ahead at USDA Nov. 14 corn and soybean estimates
2025/26 U.S. Crop Production
Trade estimates for USDA : Nov. 14, 2025
| USDA, Reuters | Corn | Corn | Soybeans | Soybeans |
| Yield | Production | Yield | Production | |
| Average | 184.0 | 16.557 | 53.1 | 4.266 |
| Trade range | 181.7 – 186.0 | 16.362 – 16.751 | 51.7 – 54.0 | 4.152 – 4.336 |
| USDA/NASS September | 186.7 | 16.814 | 53.5 | 4.301 |
| 2024/25 | 179.3 | 14.892 | 50.7 | 4.374 |
Note: Yield figures in bushels per acre, production figures in billions of bushels.
—Brazil faces up to $4 billion soybean export Hit from Trump/Xi pact
China’s planned resumption of large-scale U.S. soybean purchases under the Trump/Xi deal could trim Brazil’s export revenues, though the impact may moderate if commitments fall short or trade tensions resurface.
The new U.S./China agreement signed by President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in late October could cost Brazil as much as $4 billion in soybean export revenues over the next six months, according to estimates based on DataLiner figures and Brazilian industry analysis. The deal, which resumes Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, commits Beijing to import 12 million tonnes by January 2026 and up to 25 million tonnes annually in 2026, 2027 and 2028 — a move expected to lessen China’s heavy reliance on Brazil, which currently supplies 70%–80% of China’s soybean imports.
Impact on Brazil’s exports. If the deal is fully implemented, Brazil could lose up to $4 billion in export earnings, compared with $34 billion projected for 2025 sales to China. A partial implementation, involving 15–20 million tonnes of U.S. shipments, would likely reduce the loss to around $2.5 billion. Abiove President André Nassar expects only a modest short-term decline, with Brazil’s 2025 exports revised to about 82 million tonnes, still 10 million tonnes higher than 2024, before potentially falling to 72–75 million tonnes in 2026 as the U.S./China flow stabilizes.
Market context and competitive pressures. The adjustment comes as Argentina prepares to expand soybean exports by 17% in 2025–26, targeting new buyers outside China. Brazil’s competitive edge — ample farmland, low costs, and a seasoned farming sector — remains intact, but its short-term market share in China could narrow as U.S. volumes rebound.
Political and market reactions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed the deal as a win for American farmers who were “used as political pawns,” while some producers quoted remain skeptical. They warn that new tensions between Washington and Beijing could once again disrupt trade. Farmers note that while the agreement may offer temporary relief, it doesn’t alter the structural challenge posed by Brazil’s expansion in global soy markets.
Meanwhile, Thailand, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and several European countries are stepping up U.S. soybean purchases, while Egypt and Morocco are emerging as promising new markets. The uncertainty surrounding the deal — combined with rising production costs and weak prices — continues to weigh on sentiment among American growers and traders alike.
—Brazil sets record in soybean meal exports, expands market reach
Strong foreign demand and new buyers drive record shipments; China remains dominant in soybean purchases
Brazil exported 19.6 million tonnes of soybean meal between January and October 2025, setting a record for the period, according to Secex data analyzed by Cepea. Demand was notably strong from both traditional and emerging destinations, including Spain, Denmark, Bangladesh, and Portugal, signaling Brazil’s growing diversification in export markets.
Soybean exports also rose sharply, with 100.6 million tonnes shipped in the same period — 6.7% higher than in 2024. Of that total, 78.8 million tonnes went to China, maintaining its role as Brazil’s principal buyer.
Domestically, Brazilian crushers and feed producers were also active amid solid derivative demand.
On the production side, widespread rains have supported fieldwork, though planting progress has lagged historical trends. As of Nov. 1, Conab reported soybean planting at 47.1% of the projected area — below last year’s 53.3% and the five-year average of 54.7%.
—China authorizes Brazilian facilities to export DDGs and sorghum
New approvals deepen trade ties and open markets for Brazil’s corn-ethanol and sorghum sectors
China has officially approved the first Brazilian facilities to export distillers dried grains (DDG), distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and sorghum — marking a significant expansion in Brazil’s agricultural access to the Chinese market, according to Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture.
The authorizations cover five corn-ethanol producers and ten sorghum-exporting units across several states, including Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Rondônia, and Bahia. The ministry said the move “strengthens the commercial relationship with the main partner of Brazilian agribusiness and opens new opportunities for the sorghum sector and the corn-ethanol industry.”
The approvals follow two phytosanitary protocols signed between the nations: one for sorghum in November 2024 and another for corn-ethanol co-products in May 2025. China currently accounts for over 80% of global sorghum imports, valued at more than $2.6 billion last year.
Brazil, which produced over 4 million tonnes of sorghum in 2024 and exported about 178,000 tonnes (4%), is expected to scale shipments now that its facilities have formal access. For DDG exports, four plants in Mato Grosso and one in Mato Grosso do Sul were cleared to ship to China — potentially boosting Brazil’s 2024 export total of 791,000 tonnes.
Officials said the deal enhances Brazil’s circular-economy and sustainability agenda, emphasizing that DDG exports convert ethanol-industry residues into high-value feed inputs. China remained Brazil’s top agribusiness destination in 2024, purchasing $49.6 billion in agricultural goods.
—Agriculture markets yesterday:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov. 10 | Change vs. Nov. 7 |
| Corn | December | $4.29 3/4 | +2 1/2¢ |
| Soybeans | January | $11.30 | +13¢ |
| Soybean Meal | December | $320.00 | +$2.90 |
| Soybean Oil | December | 50.58¢ | +90 pts |
| SRW Wheat | December | $5.35 3/4 | +8¢ |
| HRW Wheat | December | $5.27 | +7 3/4¢ |
| Spring Wheat | December | $5.64 1/4 | +6 1/4¢ |
| Cotton | December | 64.31¢ | +69 pts |
| Live Cattle | December | $228.55 | +$7.20 |
| Feeder Cattle | January | $328.825 | +$9.25 (limit up) |
| Lean Hogs | December | $82.775 | +$3.375 |
| WOTUS |
—EPA to unveil next steps on WOTUS rule
OMB completes review of EPA’s “final clarifying definition” proposal, setting up announcement
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing to announce its next steps on the long-debated Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule. Administrator Lee Zeldin said the agency’s proposed “Final Clarifying Definition of ‘Waters of the United States’” has completed review by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as of Nov. 7, clearing the way for a public announcement.
The forthcoming proposal will not be the final rule; a formal comment period must follow before the rule is finalized. According to the Trump administration’s regulatory agenda, the rulemaking will address key elements stemming from the Supreme Court’s recent WOTUS decision — specifically definitions of “continuous surface connection,” “relatively permanent,” and distinctions between jurisdictional and non-jurisdictional ditches.
The administration has pledged to focus on “clarity, simplicity, and improvements that will stand the test of time.” However, given the contentious legal history of WOTUS, further court challenges are almost certain once the final rule is issued.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices steady as oversupply offsets impact of new U.S. sanctions on Russia
Traders weigh tighter fuel exports and rising diesel margins against growing global crude glut
Oil prices were stable on Tuesday, with Brent crude up 27 cents, 0.42%, to $64.33 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gaining 26 cents, 0.43%, to $60.39. Market sentiment was torn between the effects of new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and mounting signs of global oversupply.
Lukoil’s declaration of force majeure at an Iraqi oil field underscored the widening fallout from the sanctions, which have restricted Russian fuel exports and bolstered refined product prices. Analysts noted that heating oil, gasoil, and gasoline prices have diverged from crude, with European diesel refining margins at 21-month highs near $31 a barrel and gasoline margins at 18-month highs of almost $21.
Still, expectations of rising OPEC output and slowing demand are capping gains. OPEC+ recently agreed to raise December output by 137,000 barrels per day while pausing further hikes in early 2026.
Meanwhile, floating oil storage in Asian waters has nearly doubled, signaling sluggish demand from China and India under tightening Western sanctions. Broader markets gained modest support from progress in Washington, where the Senate approved a deal that could end the record-long U.S. government shutdown later this week.
—Oil prices edged higher Monday amid supply risks and shutdown progress
Sanctions on Russian energy and U.S. refinery outages lift products, but surplus concerns cap crude gains
Oil prices rose Monday as traders balanced potential supply disruptions from new U.S. sanctions and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks against expectations of a global crude surplus. Brent settled up $0.43 at $64.06 a barrel, while WTI gained $0.38 to $60.13.
Fuel futures led the rally, with gasoline and diesel both up around 1%, boosted by refinery outages in the Great Lakes and West Coast and attacks on Russian infrastructure. Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery remains offline after a drone strike, and the company has declared force majeure at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 field amid sanctions-related issues. Floating storage volumes in Asia have doubled as tighter restrictions slow Russian crude flows to China and India.
OPEC+ producers plan a modest 137,000-barrel-per-day hike in December but will freeze further increases in early 2026, reflecting concern over a potential glut. Markets also drew support from a partial rebound in risk sentiment as the U.S. Senate advanced efforts to end the government shutdown, boosting equities and commodities early in the session.
| TRADE POLICY |
—USCA praises renewed congressional push to reinstate mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef
Hageman and Zinke back legislation to restore transparency and support U.S. cattle producers
The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) welcomed renewed momentum in Congress toward reinstating mandatory country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL) for beef, following the reintroduction of the Country-of-Origin Labeling Enforcement Act (HR 5818) by Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Wyo.). USCA also applauded Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) for joining as a co-sponsor, calling the bill a critical step in giving “power back to American cattle producers” and ensuring consumers can identify genuine U.S. beef.
USCA Labeling Committee Chair Samantha Ferrat emphasized that trust between producers and consumers “begins with straightforward, accurate product labels,” while USCA Founder Leo McDonnell underscored that MCOOL has been a “central conviction” of the group’s advocacy for nearly two decades. The association reaffirmed its commitment to work with lawmakers and industry partners to secure clear, reliable labeling for the benefit of independent producers and rural communities.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—Democrats’ shiny object problem: Charlie Cook warns against reading too much into Zohran Mamdani’s win
National Journal columnist argues New York’s mayoral race is “hardly important” nationally as Democrats risk misreading their own success amid the shutdown fight
Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook cautions Democrats not to mistake the media buzz around New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani for a broader political trend. While praising Mamdani’s campaign as a creative “case study in social media and marketing,” Cook dismisses the race’s significance, noting that no NYC mayor has successfully used the office as a springboard to higher office in over 150 years.
Cook contrasts Mamdani’s modest 50.4% win — narrower than Eric Adams’ 2021 margin — with far larger Democratic victories in New Jersey and Virginia, where Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger each captured governorships by appealing to swing voters. He warns progressives against replicating Mamdani’s democratic socialist platform in purple states, drawing parallels to how Republicans “got over their skis” by nominating unelectable Tea Party and MAGA-aligned candidates in 2010–2022.
Quote of note: “Republicans should never nominate red candidates in purple states, just as Democrats should not nominate blue candidates in purple states,” Cook writes, warning that Democrats could “seize defeat from the jaws of victory” if they misread last week’s results.
In a second section, Cook turns to the ongoing government shutdown, describing it as a political “Sophie’s Choice” for Democrats — caught between protecting federal workers and preserving ObamaCare subsidies. He says Democrats’ internal conflict between heart and strategy has allowed their base’s “glands” to dominate, while Republicans have the easier task of deferring to President Donald Trump, who now “owns their party.”
| FOOD & FOOD INDUSTRY |
—Trump administration seeks Supreme Court intervention in SNAP funding dispute
Justice Dept. argues lower courts overstepped by ordering full food stamp payments during shutdown; Massachusetts judge rebukes administration’s handling of the case.
The Trump administration remains embroiled in a legal fight over whether to pay full Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits in November, even as Congress edges closer to reopening the government.
On Monday, Justice Department attorneys asked the Supreme Court for a permanent stay of a lower court order requiring USDA to fund the program in full, warning that judicial intervention in federal spending decisions threatens the separation of powers. “The irreparable harms of allowing district courts to inject themselves into the shutdown and decide how to triage limited funds are grave enough to warrant a stay,” DOJ lawyers wrote.
If lawmakers reach an agreement to end the shutdown, as expected, the case would become moot and SNAP funding would resume as normal.
In a separate development, U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani of Massachusetts sharply criticized the administration’s actions in court Monday. She left in place her previous order blocking USDA’s directive for states to “immediately undo” full SNAP payments, saying she would issue a new ruling concurrent with the Supreme Court’s schedule.
Talwani suggested that the administration might be using SNAP as “a leverage point” in ongoing shutdown negotiations, remarking that it appeared “vindictive” for USDA to send threatening letters to states over the weekend. DOJ attorney Tyler Becker countered that several states had acted “brazenly” in issuing full benefits before official guidance was received.
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Unseasonably cold along the Southeast Coast and Florida today; Central U.S. warms up… …Snow expected to continue across Lower Great Lakes and interior Northeast/New England… …Atmospheric river to bring heavy rainfall and mountain snow to the West Coast late Wednesday.
