Spain Confronts Swine Fever Cases, Raising Export Risks
USCMA review | Venezuela | Update: Tyson to shutter Neb. plant, slashe Amarillo workforce as tight cattle supplies reshape the beef industry | Brazilian beef access spurs new EU/Mercosur rift
Link: Thanksgiving Deadline Slips as Trump/Xi Deal Moves Quietly into Implementation
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 28
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 28
Today’s Updates:
TOP STORIES
— Spain confronts first swine fever cases since 1994, raising export risks
— Chamber warns jobs are at stake as USTR opens USMCA Review
— Global trade momentum ebbs as tariff rush fades
— India weighs assurances to protect Canadian pulse supply amid pea tariff fallout
— U.S. tightens perimeter around Venezuela as Trump signals potential escalation
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities Friday, weekly and monthly changes
— Black Friday spending climbs, showing consumers still opening their wallets
— Wall Street heads into the final month with heavy earnings and data slate
AG MARKETS
— Update: Tyson to shutter Nebraska plant, slash Amarillo workforce
— Europe braces for new rift as Mercosur/EU deal opens door to Brazilian beef
— Ag markets Friday and weekly change
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Friday: Geopolitics, supply glut keep crude under pressure ahead of OPEC+
TRADE POLICY
— WSJ: Trump’s food-tariff rollbacks cover only a fraction of imports
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: Major winter storm to bring snow, rain, and below-normal temps across central and eastern U.S.
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 29, 2025
Up Front — Spain confirms first swine-fever cases since 1994, putting Europe’s largest hog herd on alert and blocking roughly one-third of Spanish pork export certificates as authorities race to contain infected wild boar in Catalonia.— Chamber warns USMCA jobs are at risk as USTR opens its mandated review, with business groups urging the Trump administration not to unwind the trilateral pact that anchors North American manufacturing and supply chains.— Global trade momentum cools as the WTO’s goods barometer shows tariff-front-loading fading, signaling moderating demand and forecasting a sharp slowdown in 2026.— India considers guarantees to Canada on pulses, weighing quotas and lower duties to keep Canadian farmers planting peas and lentils despite new import barriers and collapsing market incentives.— U.S. tightens pressure on Venezuela, with Trump declaring surrounding airspace “closed” and expanding military deployments as signals mount of potential escalation against the Maduro regime.— Stocks rebound into month-end, with the S&P 500 flipping from its Nov. 20 low to positive for the month, supported by rate-cut expectations and seasonal tailwinds.— Black Friday sales rise 4.1%, showing consumers still spending — though more price-sensitive — as in-store traffic improves and online growth moderates from last year.— Heavy week ahead for earnings and economic data, including reports from Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Dollar General, and the long-delayed September PCE price index.— Update: Tyson to close Nebraska plant and slash Amarillo jobs, restructuring its beef operations amid historically tight cattle supplies and volatile futures markets.— EU faces tension over Mercosur beef access, with farmers warning that a 100,000-ton Brazilian quota would undercut European producers operating under stricter sanitary and environmental rules.— Ag markets mixed, with corn and soybeans posting weekly gains while wheat softens; cattle futures rebound sharply after initial panic over Tyson’s restructuring.— Crude prices remain soft, weighed down by swelling global supply and record U.S. output ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, with Saudi Arabia preparing further price cuts for Asia.— Trump’s food-tariff rollbacks limited, with WSJ reporting that exemptions cover only a narrow slice of imports and leave key staples like sugar, pasta and oils still subject to duties.— Major winter storm to sweep across the Plains and Midwest, bringing heavy snow, hazardous travel and widespread chill across the eastern half of the country. Top Stories —Spain confronts first swine fever cases since 1994, raising export risksDiscovery of infected wild boar in Catalonia jolts Europe’s largest hog herd and threatens a key pillar of Spanish agriculture Spain’s pork sector is on high alert after authorities confirmed the country’s first African swine fever (ASF) cases in 31 years — a development that could jeopardize both domestic production and a major European export engine. Of note: About one third of Spanish pork export certificates have been blocked after the first outbreak of swine fever for three decades, Spain’s agriculture minister said on Saturday. The Agriculture Ministry said two wild boar found dead on Nov. 26 in the eastern region of Catalonia tested positive for ASF, marking Spain’s first confirmed outbreak since 1994. Officials stressed that no commercial farms have reported infections, but warned that the presence of the virus in wild populations poses a substantial risk to the nation’s massive hog industry. Spain is the world’s fourth-largest pork producer — trailing only China, the U.S. and Germany — and maintains the European Union’s largest swine herd. The country’s expansive wild boar population and high domestic pork consumption further heighten the stakes as officials race to contain the detection. African swine fever, which entered the EU in 2014 and is now present in 13 member states, is highly contagious among pigs but harmless to humans. Under EU law, any confirmed case triggers strict containment, surveillance, and eradication measures in the affected zone. Spanish authorities have instructed producers to tighten biosecurity, increase monitoring, and immediately report any suspected cases as they assess the scope of the threat.—Chamber warns jobs are at stake as USTR opens USMCA ReviewBusiness groups push to preserve North American trade pact as Trump administration signals possible overhaul The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is urging the Trump administration to avoid destabilizing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), warning that the pact underpins 13 million American jobs and anchors the country’s most important export markets. Quote of note: In formal comments submitted to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) ahead of a mandated review, the Chamber emphasized that Canada and Mexico buy more U.S. manufactured goods than the next 12 markets combined — a scale of integration that business groups argue cannot be easily replicated through bilateral deals. USTR will begin public hearings on Dec. 3, kicking off what is expected to be an intense policy debate over the future of North America’s trade architecture. While some within the administration favor targeted adjustments, there are increasing signs that President Donald Trump’s team is exploring the possibility of scrapping the trilateral framework in favor of separate U.S./Canada and U.S./Mexico agreements. Such a move would risk triggering significant supply-chain turbulence, particularly in autos, industrial machinery, and cross-border logistics, sectors that rely on the predictability of a unified regional rulebook. Executives warn that reopening the pact could generate new rounds of tariff threats, investment uncertainty, and border-related frictions at a time when firms are already navigating shifting tariff regimes and a cooling global economy. Business groups are expected to press USTR during the hearings to keep the pact intact, arguing that stability in North American trade is essential to sustaining U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. —Global trade momentum ebbs as tariff rush fadesWTO barometer shows cooling demand after front-loading surge Global goods trade is losing steam as the early-2025 scramble to front-run U.S. tariffs finally unwinds, the World Trade Organization reported Friday. The WTO’s goods barometer slipped to 101.8 in September, down from 102.2 in June, signaling trade growth that’s still positive but squarely in line with medium-term trends rather than the tariff-driven spike seen earlier this year. While air freight and container shipments remain in expansion territory, both indicators weakened from June, pointing to a broader cooling in global transport activity. Automotive and electronics flows have stabilized, agriculture remains in contraction, and new export orders are improving off a low base. The WTO said the overall picture shows “signs of moderation” in trade growth as President Donald Trump’s 10%-plus tariffs continue to reshape supply chains. U.S. importers heavily front-loaded orders to dodge the new duties, distorting flows throughout 2025. Imports from China plunged 22% through August, while shipments from Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan each jumped more than 20%. The WTO’s latest forecast projects 2.4% growth in world trade volumes for 2025 — slower than 2024’s 2.8% — followed by a sharp deceleration to 0.5% growth in 2026 as the tariff shock filters through the system. —India weighs assurances to protect Canadian pulse supply amid pea tariff falloutTalks revive as New Delhi and Ottawa explore quotas, lower duties, and long-term guarantees to keep Canadian farmers planting peas and lentils despite mounting trade barriers India is considering offering Canada long-term assurances on pulse crop imports to prevent Canadian farmers from abandoning production of peas and lentils, Indian High Commissioner to Canada Dinesh Patnaik said during a visit to Saskatchewan. The discussions come as diplomatic ties between India and Canada improve, with leaders from both countries agreeing to restart negotiations on a comprehensive trade agreement under Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government. Canada remains a major global supplier of lentils to India — competing closely with Australia — and is one of India’s largest sources of peas, alongside Russia. But the trading landscape shifted sharply after India imposed a 30% import duty on all yellow peas effective Nov. 1, following pressure from domestic producers. Patnaik said Ottawa and New Delhi are now exploring “whether we can have a quota, whether we can have a lesser tariff, whether we can have a different system of how we can make sure that in the long run pulses from Canada go regularly to India.” He made the remarks after touring the Agribition farm show, where Canadian producers warned that 2026 plantings are at risk. Growers say China’s 100% duty on Canadian peas — combined with India’s newly raised tariffs — makes peas unprofitable, jeopardizing two of Canada’s three largest markets. Many are considering switching to other crops next year. Patnaik emphasized that India will continue needing foreign pulse supplies even in years of domestic surplus, stressing that New Delhi does not want Canadian farmers to withdraw permanently from pea and lentil production. Import curbs, he said, are a tool to support Indian farmers by boosting local prices. Canada’s agriculture and international affairs ministries did not immediately comment. Bottom Line: Although India has long sought self-sufficiency in pulse production, many analysts doubt it can fully achieve that goal, keeping overseas suppliers — especially Canada — strategically important. —U.S. tightens perimeter around Venezuela as Trump signals potential escalationAirspace “closed” warning, growing military deployments, and pressure on Maduro underscore a sharp turn toward possible U.S. action President Donald Trump on Saturday declared that the airspace “above and surrounding Venezuela” should be treated as closed — an extraordinary public warning that amplified tensions with Nicolás Maduro’s government and hinted again at potential military action. Trump’s post followed a phone call last week between the U.S. president and Maduro, during which Trump told the Venezuelan leader the U.S. would consider force if he refused to step down, according to people familiar with the conversation. The White House has declined to comment on the exchange, which was first reported by the New York Times. Two days earlier, Trump openly suggested that land strikes could soon begin. “The land is easier. That’s going to start very soon,” he said in Thanksgiving remarks at Mar-a-Lago, accusing the Maduro regime of allowing narcotics into the U.S. Although the U.S. cannot formally close another nation’s airspace, the Federal Aviation Administration has already advised pilots to exercise extreme caution when flying over Venezuela due to “worsening security” and heightened regional military activity. International carriers have been canceling flights in response. The heightened tension comes as Washington intensifies its push for Maduro’s removal, accusing him of fraudulent elections, drug trafficking and human rights abuses. In their call, Maduro pressed for general amnesty for himself, senior aides and family members facing U.S. sanctions and indictments. Trump, according to people familiar with the discussion, reiterated that voluntary departure is Maduro’s only safe path. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been executing simulated attack runs over and near Venezuelan territory, using fighter jets and bomber aircraft. It has also expanded basing options across the Caribbean to position assets closer to Venezuelan airspace. The Dominican Republic confirmed this week that it authorized U.S. use of restricted areas for refueling and equipment transport during a visit from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The U.S. is additionally installing a radar system on Tobago — located just miles off Venezuela’s coast — with Marines assisting on-site. Missions have also been flown from bases in Puerto Rico and St. Croix, as well as from the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, according to flight-tracking data and open-source imagery. U.S. Southern Command said the enhanced posture is designed to “detect, monitor, and disrupt illicit actors and activities” threatening U.S. security. The buildup includes an advanced aircraft carrier, Navy destroyers, F-35B fighters and MQ-9 Reaper drones. Since September, the U.S. has launched more than 20 lethal strikes on boats it says were carrying narcotics, killing more than 80 people. “We have only just begun to kill narco-terrorists,” Hegseth said Friday. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities Friday, weekly and monthly changes: After closing at its monthly low on Nov. 20 — when the S&P 500 (SP500) was down 4.4% for November — the benchmark index staged a sharp rebound. A five-day winning streak carried the S&P back into positive territory by Black Friday, marking the biggest November swing from losses to gains on record.
Sentiment brightened quickly as fresh economic data bolstered expectations for a December interest-rate cut. Seasonal trading patterns added to the momentum: markets have a history of bottoming around Nov. 20 before the year-end “Santa rally” takes hold.
| Index | Closing Price Nov. 28 | Point Change vs Nov 26 | % Change vs Nov. 26 | % Change Week | % Change Month |
| Dow | 47,716.42 | +289.30 | +0.6% | +3.2% | +0.3% |
| Nasdaq | 23,365.69 | +151.00 | +0.7% | +4.9% | -1.5% |
| S&P 500 | 6,849.09 | +36.48 | +0.5% | +3.7% | +0.1% |
— Black Friday spending climbs, showing consumers still opening their wallets. U.S. shoppers boosted Black Friday sales this year, signaling resilient consumer demand even as households juggle higher costs and economic uncertainty. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, retail sales excluding autos rose 4.1% over last year’s Black Friday — stronger than the 3.4% gain recorded in 2024. The figures, which combine both online and in-store transactions and are not adjusted for inflation, suggest consumers are continuing to spend, though more selectively.
Mixed patterns: Strong traffic, value focus. In-store sales increased 1.7%, outpacing last year’s growth, while online spending climbed 10.4%, a solid gain but slower than 2024’s jump. Retailers targeting teens and younger adults saw heavy foot traffic, and steep-discount chains drew some of the largest crowds.
Walmart reported strong interest in Vizio TVs, Oura rings and seasonal toys, while Home Depot saw brisk demand for holiday décor and tools. Target drew early-morning lines of around 150 people at opening, enticed by free giveaways.
Promotions more cautious, shoppers more price-sensitive. Many consumers said discounts felt more muted compared with last year, pushing retailers to spotlight inexpensive, exclusive items — from $10 couch throws to $5 Barbie dolls — to appeal to price-conscious households.
Looking Ahead: Preliminary holiday-season data will trickle out in the coming weeks, but the definitive read on retailers’ performance won’t arrive until early 2026. For now, Black Friday’s results suggest consumers are still spending — just more carefully than before.
—Wall Street heads into the final month of the year with a heavy lineup of earnings and key economic releases.
Earnings pick up immediately, with MongoDB and Credo Technology reporting Monday. Tuesday brings a crowded slate featuring CrowdStrike, Bank of Nova Scotia, Marvell Technology, Pure Storage, Okta, GitLab, Box, Signet Jewelers, and American Eagle Outfitters. Salesforce leads Wednesday’s roster alongside Snowflake, Dollar Tree, and Five Below. On Thursday, investors will hear from Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, SentinelOne, Kroger, Brown-Forman, DocuSign, and Toronto-Dominion Bank. Victoria’s Secret closes out the week on Friday.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday will finally issue September’s personal consumption expenditures price index — held up for more than a month by the government shutdown — alongside the University of Michigan’s December Consumer Sentiment Index.
Earlier in the week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish long-delayed September export and import price data on Wednesday.
ADP’s November National Employment Report also lands Wednesday. With the BLS’s November nonfarm payrolls pushed to Dec. 16, the ADP reading could carry extra weight for markets.
Rounding out the economic calendar: ISM releases its November manufacturing PMI on Monday and its services gauge on Wednesday.
| AG MARKETS |
—Update: Tyson to shutter Nebraska plant, slash Amarillo workforce as tight cattle supplies reshape the beef industry
Sharp cattle-futures selloff gives way to rebound as markets digest long-term supply constraints
Tyson Foods’ sweeping restructuring of its beef division on Nov. 21 (link) sent shockwaves through the cattle markets and two major cattle-country communities, as the nation’s largest meat producer announced it will permanently close its Lexington, Nebraska beef-processing plant and eliminate nearly half the jobs at its massive facility in Amarillo, Texas. The Lexington plan employed approximately 3,200 workers in a small city of around 11,000 people.
The moves come amid the tightest U.S. cattle supplies in more than 70 years — a structural squeeze that first triggered panic in futures markets before fundamentals reasserted themselves and prices rebounded.
Amarillo: up to 1,900 jobs cut; B-shift eliminated. In a federal WARN letter delivered Nov. 21, Tyson said it will cut 1,700 to 1,900 positions at its Amarillo beef plant as it shuts down the second (B-shift) and converts to a single, full-capacity shift beginning on or about Jan. 20, 2026.
The plant currently employs 3,800–4,000 workers across two shifts. B-shift roles are being classified as permanently eliminated, though a small number of temporary or sanitation roles may extend beyond January.
Tyson said it will offer severance, priority hiring at other company facilities, relocation support, and recall rights for affected union workers under the existing collective bargaining agreement.
Nebraska: Lexington plant to close permanently. As part of the same restructuring, Tyson will shut down its Lexington, Nebraska beef plant early next year. The facility employs roughly 3,200 workers and has been running below capacity in recent months. Tyson has not announced a final closure date — Tyson did indicate Jan. 20, 2026, as the closure date, but only for the Amarillo B-shift elimination, not for the full Lexington, Nebraska plant closure.
Both plants are central pillars in the High Plains beef complex:
• Amarillo capacity: up to 6,000 head/day
• Lexington capacity: roughly 5,000 head/day
Tyson says it will scale up production at other plants in Kansas, Nebraska, and additional regions to maintain customer supply.
Why Tyson is shrinking capacity now. The company directly tied the cuts to the historically tight U.S. cattle supply:
• Years of drought and high feed costs have forced widespread herd liquidation.
• The U.S. cattle herd at the start of 2025 was 86.7 million head, the smallest since 1951.
• USDA’s mid-year update showed only a modest recovery to around 94 million head — still well below pre-drought levels.
Those tight supplies have hammered Tyson’s beef segment:
• $1.5 billion in operating losses over the past two fiscal years
• Projected $400–$600 million in additional losses for FY 2026
Executives described the restructuring as necessary to “right-size” Tyson’s beef network and stabilize long-term capacity until the herd begins to rebuild — something Tyson expects will take until at least 2027.
Market reaction: Limit-down panic, then a swift rebound. The closure news triggered a wave of selling in cattle futures the following Monday, Nov. 24:
• Live cattle and feeder cattle futures opened limit-down, dropping roughly
- Live cattle: around $7.25/cwt
- Feeder cattle: ~$9.25/cwt
Analysts said the initial plunge was emotion-driven, reflecting concern over near-term slaughter capacity disruptions rather than actual supply changes. Cattle already “on feed” and contracted for delivery were unaffected.
Within days, prices rebounded sharply, buoyed by:
• Extremely tight cattle supplies
• Continued strong beef demand
• Expectations that reduced processing capacity supports cattle prices, not suppresses them
• A recognition that the closure does not meaningfully alter near-term supply fundamentals
• For the week ending Nov. 28, January feeder cattle futures closed at $323.975, up $9.75 for the week.
Many analysts now expect firm cattle and beef prices through 2026–27, given the multi-year timeline required for cow-herd rebuilding.
What comes next. Tyson has not released department-by-department workforce impacts or detailed relocation options. City officials in Amarillo and Lexington have yet to outline local responses.
The company says the reconfigured network will allow it to weather the tight-supply cycle and be positioned for profitable growth when the cattle herd eventually expands.
But for workers and cattle-country communities — and for futures traders last week — the shift marks the latest reminder of how deeply drought and structural supply shortages continue to reshape the U.S. beef industry.
—Europe braces for new rift as Mercosur/EU deal opens door to Brazilian beef
Producers warn of unfair competition and lower standards as 100,000-ton quota set to activate next month
European livestock groups are intensifying their warnings as the Mercosur-EU trade agreement moves toward an expected signing in December, clearing the way for nearly 100,000 tons of Brazilian beef to enter the EU market under a preferential quota. Reporting first highlighted by the Irish Farmers Journal has sparked a fresh wave of concern that the new imports will arrive under weaker sanitary, traceability, and environmental standards than those imposed on EU producers.
The publication notes that Brazilian beef entering under the quota would not be required to meet several core EU regulatory benchmarks — particularly in areas such as veterinary drug oversight, full batch traceability, and environmental monitoring. With European farmers already protesting across multiple member states, the agreement’s imminent activation is now at the center of a broader debate over food safety, trade fairness, and agricultural competitiveness.
Declan Hanrahan, who leads the Irish Farmers Association’s livestock division, emphasized that food-safety standards “exist for a reason,” warning that accepting products produced under looser rules risks undermining consumer confidence. EU producer groups argue that Europe is effectively inviting in beef from systems that do not comply with the animal-welfare, anti-deforestation, and environmental-audit rules the bloc requires of its own farmers — creating what they describe as structurally unfair competition.
Brazil’s status as one of the world’s largest beef exporters heightens the unease. While it maintains sanitary agreements with multiple major markets, EU groups say the regulatory gap remains wide and unresolved, especially on deforestation controls and full supply-chain traceability.
The nearly 100,000-ton quota is embedded within the agricultural chapter of the Mercosur/EU accord — long one of the most politically sensitive components of the negotiations, particularly in France, Ireland, and other major livestock-producing states. Although Europe’s industrial sector sees export opportunities in South America for machinery, vehicles, and manufactured goods, agriculture continues to represent the agreement’s biggest political and economic fault line.
Rural organizations warn that the expected influx of lower-cost imports could push down EU beef prices at a time when producers face rising input costs and weather-driven volatility. To them, the deal risks backtracking on the EU’s own food-policy principles by permitting access for products that do not meet domestic standards.
As December’s signing approaches, the Mercosur-EU agreement has become a flashpoint dividing farmers, policymakers, and environmental groups. For Mercosur nations, the quota is a lucrative opening; for a large segment of Europe’s agricultural sector, it is a direct and growing threat to their production model.
—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov. 28 | Diff from Nov. 26 | Weekly Change |
| Corn | March | 4.47 3/4 | +2 1/2 | +10 1/4 |
| Soybeans | Jan | 11.37 3/4 | +6 1/4 | +12 3/4 |
| Soybean Meal | March | 318.70 | -1.70 | +3.60 |
| Soybean Oil | March | 52.55 | +1.01 | +2.29 |
| Wheat SRW | March | 5.38 1/2 | -2 | -1 1/4 |
| Wheat HRW | March | 5.27 1/2 | -2 1/2 | +1 1/4 |
| Wheat Spring | March | 5.78 | -1/2 | +2 3/4 |
| Cotton | March | 64.73 | +16 | +88 |
| Live Cattle | Feb | 215.575 | +4.55 | +3.075 |
| Feeder Cattle | Jan | 323.975 | +8.85 | +9.75 |
| Lean Hogs | Feb | 81.00 | -0.375 | +3.30 |
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Friday: Geopolitics, supply glut keep crude under pressure ahead of OPEC+
Geopolitics, supply forecasts and record U.S. output keep prices soft as OPEC+ signals steady policy and Saudi Arabia prepares another price cut for Asia
Crude futures slipped slightly on Friday as traders balanced persistent geopolitical risk against increasingly clear signs of ample global supply, with markets looking to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting for clues on early 2026 production policy. Brent’s expiring January contract closed at $63.20, down $0.14, while the more liquid February contract settled at $62.38. WTI ended at $58.55, down $0.10 after returning from CME’s system outage.
Despite logging a modest weekly gain, both benchmarks notched a fourth consecutive monthly decline — the longest losing streak since 2023 — as projections for a sizeable 2026 surplus and record U.S. output of 13.84 million bpd weighed heavily on sentiment, according to the latest EIA data.
Prices were pressured early in the week by reports of progress in U.S.-backed Ukraine/Russia peace negotiations, which raised the possibility of sanctions relief and more Russian barrels returning to market. Crude later clawed back some losses as talks dragged on and the odds of a near-term deal diminished.
Analysts say strong refining margins are helping support near-term demand, but the overarching supply picture remains dominant. Forecasts continue to signal a surplus extending through 2026, and survey expectations for next year’s average Brent price have drifted lower.
Markets now turn to OPEC+, where delegates expect no change to current output targets, though discussions on how to assess members’ maximum production capacity could shape future allocations. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is poised to cut its January official selling price for Asia again, underscoring the well-supplied market and softening demand backdrop.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Trump’s food-tariff rollbacks cover only a fraction of imports
WSJ analysis shows narrow exemptions ease pressure on coffee and bananas but leave sugar, pasta, oils and other essentials still facing duties
The Trump administration’s latest bid to ease grocery inflation — targeted tariff exemptions on bananas, coffee and dozens of other food-related items — removes levies on only a small share of U.S. imports, according to Wall Street Journal reporting (link). And even after President Trump’s Nov. 14 executive order, several high-cost staples remain subject to his reciprocal tariffs, continuing pressure on consumers already squeezed by post-pandemic food inflation.
The Journal reports that the exempted food, beverage and agricultural products totaled roughly $51 billion in U.S. imports during the first eight months of 2025, equal to about one-third of all food and beverage imports and just 2% of the roughly $2.3 trillion in total goods imports during that period. The newly exempted products generated about $2.6 billion in tariff revenue through August — small compared with the more than $154 billion in total tariff collections, according to Trade Partnership Worldwide, cited by the WSJ.
Impact: Oxford Economics told the Journal that the combined food exemptions and recent reductions on imports from Switzerland should trim the United States’ effective tariff rate by 0.6 percentage point, bringing it down to 12.8%.
Key ingredients still hit with tariffs. While the exemptions include high-revenue categories like meat, coffee, bananas, and fruits and nuts, several items with persistently elevated prices remain subject to new duties. As the WSJ notes, sugar, fish, pasta, cheese and cooking oils are still tariff-covered — products that experienced sharp price increases during the pandemic and remain sensitive for household budgets.
Coffee prices have risen 15% from January to September, and bananas are up 8%, far outpacing the 1.4% rise in overall “food at home” costs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and cited in the Journal. Beef prices — already elevated due to tight cattle supplies and strong demand — show little sign of easing. Consumer-price data referenced in the WSJ shows uncooked beef steaks up about 10% this year and ground beef up 14%.
Quote of note: “Coffee and bananas and cocoa are textbook examples of products that Americans love and will never be supplied domestically even with 1,000% tariffs,” Trade Partnership Worldwide President Dan Anthony told the Journal. At the same time, he noted, removing beef tariffs will likely have only a limited downward effect on prices.
Mexico and Canada are the biggest beneficiaries. According to WSJ analysis of Census Bureau data, the largest suppliers of the newly exempted food imports are Mexico ($9 billion) and Canada ($6 billion) — both of which were already shielded from some tariffs under USMCA provisions. Brazil, a major exporter of meats and coffee, accounted for $4.7 billion in exempted shipments. Trump separately lifted a 40% tariff on Brazilian goods on Nov. 20.
Relief comes as imports cool. The Wall Street Journal also notes that the revisions arrive as U.S. imports slowed after a spring surge of front-loading by companies attempting to beat tariff deadlines. Total U.S. imports of goods and services slipped to $340.4 billion in August, according to census figures cited in the report.
President Trump, posting Monday on Truth Social, said that accumulated inventory was “wearing thin,” warning that tariffs would soon apply broadly “without avoidance.”
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: Major winter storm over the central/northern Plains will spread
eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes region this weekend with widespread heavy snowfall and hazardous travel conditions… …Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will focus along the western Gulf Coast this weekend with locally heavy rainfall possible… …A wintry pattern bringing well below average, chilly temperatures to
much of the eastern and central U.S.
