Tariff Rollback Eases Fertilizer Pressures Ahead of 2026 Planting Season
USDA reports dehorn corn, soybean bulls | USDA orders nationwide SNAP reapplication
Link: Trump Eases Tariffs on Key Ag Imports After Trade Breakthroughs
Link: Trump Moves to Ease Grocery Prices
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 14
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 14
Today’s Updates:
TOP ITEMS
— An executive order exempting certain food products from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
was signed Friday as expected
— Tariff rollback eases fertilizer pressures ahead of 2026 planting season
— USDA orders nationwide SNAP reapplication
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities Friday and weekly change
— Kugler ethics report finds stock-trading violations at Fed
— U.S. gov’t is reopened, but economic data lags
— New York Fed holds impromptu meeting as money-market strains grow
AG MARKETS
— USDA Nov. Crop Production estimates gored corn and soybean market bulls
— Soybean futures slide as USDA cuts export outlook
— USDA is still below Brazil’s CONAB on corn and soybean crop estimates
— USDA on Friday released the long-delayed tally of daily export sales
— USDA boosts 2025 sorghum production
— USDA cuts 2025 livestock and poultry output forecasts
— Milk production and dairy trade: Higher output, adjusted imports and exports
— Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change
AG INDUSTRY FOCUS: JBS
— JBS leans on global platform as U.S. beef squeeze drags margins
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices jumped Friday as Ukrainian strike halts Russian exports
TRADE POLICY
— Sorghum producers: New Latin America trade frameworks are a start —
but sorghum must be explicitly included
BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR
— H-2A wage rule draws divided early feedback as Dec. 1 comment deadline nears
WEATHER
— Winter wild card: stratospheric warming could collide with La Niña
— NWS outlook: Additional heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and debris
flows possible for parts of Southern California today
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 15, 2025
Up Front— Tariff relief on key food imports: Trump signs an order lifting reciprocal tariffs on items like coffee, cocoa and high-quality beef to ease grocery-price pressure, drawing praise from retailers but criticism that it exposes broader tariff damage.— Fertilizer tariffs rolled back: White House exempts most major fertilizers from the tariff regime, likely lowering input costs and easing 2026 planting worries even as policy volatility and questions over ammonia linger.— Nationwide SNAP reapplication: USDA’s Rollins orders all SNAP recipients to reapply, citing new data showing fraud and duplicate payments, setting up a sweeping eligibility reset for more than 41 million beneficiaries.— Stocks mixed on the week: The Dow slips while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are little changed day-to-day, with modest weekly gains for the Dow and S&P and a small weekly loss for the Nasdaq.— Fed ethics probe widens: A government ethics report finds former Fed governor Adriana Kugler violated trading rules, deepening scrutiny of policymakers’ stock-trading practices.— Data blackout hampers Fed: Although the shutdown is over, missing jobs and inflation reports — including a likely-lost October CPI — leave the Fed and markets navigating without key indicators ahead of the December FOMC meeting.— NY Fed flags money-market stress: An impromptu meeting with dealers presses banks to use the Standing Repo Facility more as repo rates climb and year-end funding pressures build.— USDA crop report disappoints corn, soy bulls: November production updates trim corn output only slightly and leave soy largely unchanged, boosting ending stocks and undercutting disease-driven bull narratives.— Soybean futures hit by export cuts: USDA lowers U.S. soybean export forecasts amid aggressive South American shipments and a Trump/Xi deal that narrowed U.S. price discounts, knocking futures sharply lower.— Brazil crop estimates still higher: USDA’s corn and soybean projections for Brazil remain below CONAB’s more optimistic numbers, highlighting upside risk to global supply.—USDA on Friday released the long-delayed tally of daily export sales that occurred during the historic government shutdown.— Sorghum crop raised 7%: USDA boosts 2025 U.S. sorghum production on stronger yields and slightly higher acres, with firmer demand keeping ending stocks in check.— Livestock/poultry output trimmed: USDA cuts 2025 beef, pork, turkey and egg production forecasts on tighter supplies and HPAI losses, with broilers the lone significant growth category.— Dairy output and exports edge higher: USDA raises milk production for 2025–26 and tweaks trade, with lower butter imports and stronger butter, cheese and whey exports.— Grain and livestock close mostly lower: Corn and soybeans end Friday down but still up on the week, wheat is mixed, cotton slides, and cattle and hogs finish with modest, divergent moves.— JBS leans on global diversification: The meat giant posts record Q3 sales and solid earnings as strong Australia, Brazil, Seara, pork and chicken results offset squeezed U.S. beef margins and higher working-capital needs.— Oil rallies on Russian export disruption: Crude prices rise after a Ukrainian strike halts flows from Russia’s Novorossiisk hub and sanctions snarl shipments, tightening near-term supply despite broader surplus concerns.— Sorghum seeks place in new trade deals: Producers welcome Latin America trade frameworks but urge USTR/USDA to explicitly include sorghum in market-access and regulatory provisions so the crop isn’t overlooked.— H-2A wage rule splits stakeholders: Growers praise DOL’s new OEWS-based wage formula and housing adjustment as cost relief, while worker advocates warn of potential pay cuts and misclassification risks ahead of the Dec. 1 comment deadline.— Stratospheric warming could upend winter forecast: Scientists tell USA Today a rare sudden stratospheric warming event colliding with La Niña could either unleash a prolonged U.S. cold spell or leave conditions surprisingly mild.— NWS warns of heavy rain and temperature extremes: Forecasts call for dangerous flooding and debris flows in Southern California, record warmth across the Plains and Midwest, and a wintry mix with mountain snow in the Northeast.  —An executive order exempting certain food products from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs was signed Friday as expectedProducts include coffee, cocoa &beef amid growing consumer angst over high grocery prices An executive order eliminating the so-called reciprocal tariffs on hundreds of agricultural imports was signed Friday by President Donald Trump — a significant rollback of a central pillar of his broad tariff regime as grocery prices continue to vex voters. Link to special report detailing the order and important caveats. The move unwinds at least some of the 10%-plus duties the administration imposed beginning in April, and the higher rates layered on in August for imports from U.S. trade-deficit partners. Updated assessments of domestic supply, consumer demand, and the status of ongoing negotiations justified removing a wide range of agricultural goods from the tariff list, according to the order (link). White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement Friday that Trump had detailed potential tariff modifications in a Sept. 5 executive order that “specifically laid out various natural resources and agricultural products not produced in the United States that could be eligible for tariff-free treatment.” The newly exempt items include high-quality beef cuts, fertilizer, coffee, bananas and many other farm-related products, many of which cannot be produced domestically at scale. Link to White House fact sheet. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed the rollback earlier as a targeted effort to bring down food prices quickly by lifting tariffs on goods not grown in the United States. Grocery store owners welcomed the news on Friday. “Today’s action should help consumers, whose morning cup of coffee will hopefully become more affordable, as well as U.S. manufacturers, which utilize many of these products in their supply chains and production lines,” said Leslie G. Sarasin, president and CEO of FMI, an industry group for grocers. But critics say the change exposes the political and economic strain created by the administration’s trade war. “It’s certainly a step in the right direction, but it’s important to recognize that the pain that American working families and businesses feel from tariffs goes way beyond coffee and bananas,” said Jake Colvin, president of the National Foreign Trade Council. Of note: Chris Swonger, the president and CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States — the industry’s national trade organization — criticized the administration’s decision to leave distilled spirits from the European Union and the United Kingdom off the list. He described it as “yet another blow to the U.S. hospitality industry just as the critical holiday season kicks into high gear.” He added: “EU and UK spirits, including Scotch, Cognac, and Irish Whiskey, are value-added agricultural products that cannot be produced in the United States.” House Ways & Means ranking member Richard Neal (D-Mass.) blasted the move as a tacit admission that Trump’s tariffs have fueled inflation, squeezed farmers and ranchers, and burdened consumers already struggling with higher grocery bills. Neal argued that manufacturing has contracted “month after month” since the tariffs were enacted, while a record number of producers face financial distress. Neal also renewed his challenge to House Republicans to allow votes on resolutions terminating the national emergency Trump declared to justify IEEPA-based tariffs. The Senate has already approved multiple measures this year seeking to roll back those emergency powers, but House GOP leadership has blocked floor consideration. Neal urged Trump to dismantle all IEEPA tariffs — including those on Canada, Mexico, China and Brazil — saying every day the duties remain “families, small businesses, farms, and manufacturers get crushed.” Bottom Line: “By admitting that lowering tariffs will lower prices for U.S. consumers, the Trump administration is acknowledging what economists have pointed out all along: tariffs raise prices,” said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, a think tank critical of tariffs. — Tariff rollback eases fertilizer pressures ahead of 2026 planting seasonWhite House exemptions remove major cost burden from nitrogen and phosphate imports, but uncertainty and input risks remain The Trump administration’s decision Friday to exempt most major fertilizers from the “reciprocal” tariff program is poised to ease one of the biggest cost pressures facing U.S. farmers ahead of the 2026 planting season. The White House confirmed that a broad range of nitrogen- and phosphate-based fertilizers — including urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulfate, DAP and MAP — are now excluded from the tariff regime, which had sharply raised landed costs and disrupted import flows for much of 2025. Industry analysts say the change should help normalize supply chains that were already showing strain. Importers had been diverting shipments away from the U.S. and distributors were warning of tight availability into spring. With tariffs removed, market observers expect earlier restocking, cheaper landed costs and clearer planning horizons for farm retailers. Argus Media noted that “trade flows could normalize now that fertilizers are tariff-free,” though the status of some products — notably anhydrous ammonia — remains unclear. The rollback follows months of farmer complaints and new data showing that tariffs had meaningfully distorted the fertilizer market. A recent study found that phosphate fertilizer imports from tariffed countries had fallen 47%, while U.S. farmers were paying premiums over Canadian peers — roughly $34 per metric ton on DAP and $11 per ton on urea. Some producers were already scaling back application plans for 2026, citing cost uncertainty. The policy shift is therefore expected to put downward pressure on fertilizer prices in coming months, though the impact won’t be immediate. Import contracts and inventory cycles mean that relief will likely build gradually through winter. Global factors — natural gas markets, phosphate rock supply and energy costs — will continue to set the baseline, but the tariff exemption removes a major U.S.-specific surcharge. Still, the change carries complications. Domestic fertilizer manufacturers, who had briefly gained a competitive edge under the tariff structure, now face a more competitive import environment. And distributors warn that policy volatility remains a lingering threat: with tariffs imposed, then lifted, and some products still under review, market actors remain wary of future shifts. Farm groups largely welcomed the announcement, seeing it as a necessary correction heading into a high-stakes year. With fuel, machinery and interest expenses already elevated, fertilizer had been one of the most unpredictable input categories. Lower import costs, if sustained, could meaningfully improve margins for corn, soybean and wheat producers — especially those who delayed purchases during the summer and fall. The American Soybean Association praised President Trump for issuing the executive order removing reciprocal tariffs on several major fertilizer products that soybean farmers rely on. The order adds diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and potassium chloride (potash) to the list of imports exempt from the administration’s reciprocal tariff regime. ASA President Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky soybean farmer, said producers are facing tight margins and tough planning choices following a difficult harvest. He noted that fertilizer costs are one of the most significant input pressures soybean growers confront each year. The action “will help lower costs for one key component of soybean production,” Ragland said. “U.S. soybean farmers are grateful that the administration has acted to ensure DAP, MAP, and potash will no longer face import duties.” The association said lifting the duties will provide meaningful relief at a time when rising production costs continue to strain farm budgets. The ultimate test will come during winter procurement. If import volumes rise, prices ease and ammonia is clarified as tariff-free, dealers expect a more orderly lead-in to spring. But if policy uncertainty returns or global markets tighten, the window for relief may be short. For now, however, the White House action marks the most significant easing of fertilizer cost pressures farmers have seen all year. —USDA orders nationwide SNAP reapplicationRollins again cites widespread fraud as Trump administration tightens eligibility USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the Trump administration plans to require all Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) beneficiaries to reapply, pointing to new data that she argues shows extensive fraud in the system. Rollins said that after reviewing information from 29 Republican-led states, USDA found 186,000 deceased individuals listed as receiving SNAP benefits. Some 500,000 people received duplicate payments “Can you imagine when we get our hands on the blue state data what we’re going to find?” she said on Newsmax’s Rob Schmitt Tonight. She framed the move as part of a broader reconstruction of the program: “It’s going to give us a platform and a trajectory to fundamentally rebuild this program, have everyone reapply for their benefit, make sure that everyone that’s taking a taxpayer-funded benefit through SNAP or food stamps … literally is vulnerable and can’t survive without it.” Rollins’s push is aimed at ending “fraud, waste, and incessant abuse,” and the administration is using standard recertification tools, ongoing state data analysis, and future regulatory changes to strengthen oversight. SNAP already requires periodic recertification every six to 12 months, but Rollins’s plan would amount to a sweeping, one-time nationwide reset of eligibility. Rollins said families should receive full SNAP benefits by Monday. More than 41 million Americans rely on SNAP to buy groceries, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Rollins also said 120 individuals have been arrested for SNAP fraud and called the program “corrupt” in a separate CNN interview. “These are the things that we’re uncovering that, for years, no one has really ever dug into because the feds didn’t have the system in place to do it,” she said. “But we do now. The president has made this a priority. We will fix this program.” |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities Friday and weekly change:
| Equity Index | Closing Price Nov. 14 | Point Difference from Nov. 13 | % Difference from Nov. 13 | Weekly Change |
| Dow | 47,147.48 | -309.74 | -0.65% | +0.34% |
| Nasdaq | 22,900.59 | +30.23 | +0.13% | -0.45% |
| S&P 500 | 6,734.11 | -3.38 | -0.05% | +0.09% |
—Kugler ethics report finds stock-trading violations
Probe into former Fed governor deepens after resignation
Former Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler violated federal stock-trading rules during her tenure, according to a report released Saturday by the U.S. Government Ethics Office. The findings follow Kugler’s abrupt resignation in August — first reported by CNBC — despite her term being scheduled to run through January.
Kugler’s Sept. 11 financial disclosure listed multiple securities transactions, but Ethics Office officials declined to certify the filing on Oct. 10. A note attached to the disclosure said that “matters related to this disclosure were referred earlier this year” to the Office of Inspector General for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, indicating the matter had already prompted an internal review.
The case adds to mounting scrutiny over ethical compliance at the Federal Reserve, which has implemented tighter trading restrictions on senior officials following earlier controversies.
—U.S. gov’t is reopened, but economic data lags
Delayed jobs and inflation reports leave Fed and markets flying blind
The federal government may be open again, but the economic picture remains clouded as key data that guide Wall Street, corporate planning, and Federal Reserve policy will be delayed for weeks — and in some cases, lost entirely.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday it will finally release the long-delayed September jobs report this coming Thursday, ending a six-week data blackout caused by the shutdown that began Oct. 1. But economists warn that fresh indicators on hiring, inflation, spending, and housing will remain unavailable well into December — and some October data may never be produced at all.
The absence of reliable data leaves the Federal Reserve without critical information heading into its Dec. 9–10 FOMC meeting, complicating officials’ already fraught debate over whether to move ahead with a long-anticipated interest-rate cut. Markets have stumbled in recent days as traders grow uncertain that the Fed will act without evidence confirming cooling inflation and stable employment.
Economists say the longer-term damage may be even more serious. Staff shortages — made worse by the firing of the BLS commissioner in August and an exodus during the shutdown — have strained an already overburdened statistical system. Roughly a third of senior BLS leadership roles remain vacant. Former officials warn it’s unclear how many employees will return.
Some data lost during the shutdown simply can’t be recovered. Monthly inflation reports rely on in-person price checks at thousands of businesses — information that can’t be reconstructed weeks later. October’s CPI is unlikely to be published at all. The October household survey, which underpins the unemployment rate and other labor-force measures, also appears infeasible to conduct retroactively — breaking a 77-year streak and causing ripple effects for survey-based indicators into next year.
Other reports will resume soon: the Census Bureau will release delayed construction and trade data on Nov. 17 and 19. But agencies must now process a massive backlog while simultaneously collecting new data, a challenge that took months to resolve after prior shutdowns.
Of note: With statistical agencies forced to “back up and ask, ‘Where were we?’” — as one former BLS official put it — policymakers, businesses, and investors face a protracted period of uncertainty. “This information is so basic that it’s used all through the government,” said former BLS Commissioner Erica Groshen. “It can be hard to know in advance what the ramifications are.”
—New York Fed holds impromptu meeting as money-market strains grow
Officials press banks on under-used repo backstop amid rising funding pressures
The New York Fed convened an unplanned meeting with major Wall Street dealers recently to address mounting stress in U.S. money markets, according to the Financial Times and Reuters. The discussion centered on the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), the Fed’s liquidity backstop that many firms remain reluctant to use even as short-term funding rates rise.
Recent weeks have seen tri-party repo rates jump above the Fed’s interest rate on reserves, signaling tighter liquidity and uneven reserve distribution. Despite this, usage of the SRF has been limited — reflecting lingering stigma that tapping the facility signals weakness.
New York Fed President John Williams used the meeting to re-emphasize that the SRF is meant to act as a “pressure valve” when markets tighten. Officials also sought feedback on why dealers continue to borrow at higher market rates rather than draw on the facility.
The timing is notable: year-end funding pressures are approaching, banks are trimming balance sheets, and quantitative tightening has reduced reserve levels. The Fed’s unusual engagement suggests concern about its ability to maintain control over short-term interest rates if liquidity worsens.
By acknowledging the meeting publicly, the Fed is signaling that it is closely monitoring the plumbing of the financial system — and wants the SRF used more readily if funding stress intensifies.
| AG MARKETS |
—USDA Nov. Crop Production estimates gored corn and soybean market bulls
Despite pre-report reports of big corn disease problems, USDA cut crop only 62 million bushels; little change for soybeans
General farm media and some ag industry analysts had hyped corn disease woes ever since USDA’s September Crop Production reports (USDA did not issue an October Crop Production report due to the government shutdown). USDA did not deliver what market bulls wanted Friday, as the corn crop survey only dropped the crop tally 62 million bushels. It appears that the ag media and some analysts focused too much attention on Iowa and Illinois and not enough focus on emerging corn producing states outside the I-state corridor, as noted in the NASS charts below:
Corn supply and demand… USDA
•Total supply is 144 million bushels higher as larger beginning stocks were partially offset by lower production. Beginning stocks are 207 million bushels higher based on the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report.
• Corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 186.0 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain was unchanged at 90.0 million acres.
• Total use is up 100 million bushels reflecting a higher export forecast. Exports were raised 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion reflecting shipments to date. Inspection data imply exports set a monthly record during September and again in October.
•With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion.
•The season-average corn price received by producers was raised 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel.
The bull crowd admits they may have to wait until USDA’s January report to get a “better assessment” of corn production — lower. But if that occurs, some analysts signal USDA would lower its corn feed use forecast, tempering any further reduction in corn yields and production.
—Soybean futures slide as USDA cuts export outlook
Surging South American shipments undercut U.S. as traders continue to await more details of Trump/Xi soy deal
Soybean futures retreated sharply Friday after USDA lowered its export forecast, citing stiff competition from Argentina and Brazil and a temporary tax cut in Buenos Aires that accelerated shipments during the peak U.S. export window. Here’s what USDA’s World Board said, dehorning soybean market bulls: “U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million from the previous forecast due to lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil and Argentina. In September, Argentina temporarily reduced export taxes leading to an influx of export registrations during the peak U.S. export season. Further, since the last report, the U.S. entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher U.S. prices and narrowed the price spread between U.S. and other major exporters. While U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the United States no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters.” Ouch.
Market impact: Chicago futures, which had briefly hit a 17-month high earlier in the week, plummeted.
USDA’s NASS trimmed U.S. soybean production by about 1% after late-season dryness — though yields remain at a record.
—USDA on Friday released the long-delayed tally of daily export sales that occurred during the historic government shutdown. Of the 6.6 million metric tons reported, roughly 330,000 tons were destined for China from two soybean sales on Oct. 30 and Nov. 3.
Daily Export Sales Data
| Date Reported | Commodity | Volume (MT) | Destination | Delivery (MY) |
| 10/01/2025 | Corn | 140,000 | South Korea | 2025/2026 |
| 10/02/2025 | Corn | 134,000 | unknown destinations | 2025/2026 |
| 10/02/2025 | White Wheat | 110,000 | Bangladesh | 2025/2026 |
| 10/08/2025 | Corn | 138,691 | Mexico | 2025/2026 |
| 10/09/2025 | Soybeans | 160,000 | Mexico | 2025/2026 |
| 10/10/2025 | Corn | 308,610 | Mexico | 2025/2026 |
| 10/13/2025 | Corn | 263,400 | Mexico | 2025/2026 |
| 10/13/2025 | Corn | 170,000 | Mexico | 2025/2026 |
| 10/13/2025 | Corn | 1,569,720 | Mexico | 1,021,080 MT in 2025/2026; 548,640 MT in 2026/2027 |
| 10/13/2025 | Soybeans | 110,000 | Mexico | 2025/2026 |
| 10/20/2025 | Corn | 136,580 | unknown destinations | 2025/2026 |
| 10/23/2025 | Corn | 285,000 | Mexico | 2025/2026 |
| 10/23/2025 | Corn | 112,000 | Mexico | 2025/2026 |
| 10/23/2025 | Corn | 193,000 | unknown destinations | 2025/2026 |
| 10/23/2025 | Soybeans | 261,000 | unknown destinations | 2025/2026 |
| 10/24/2025 | Corn | 130,000 | Japan | 2025/2026 |
| 10/27/2025 | Soybeans | 130,000 | Egypt | 2025/2026 |
| 10/28/2025 | Corn | 262,913 | Mexico | 2025/2026 |
| 10/29/2025 | Corn | 204,000 | South Korea | 2025/2026 |
| 10/29/2025 | Corn | 130,000 | unknown destinations | 2025/2026 |
| 10/30/2025 | Soybeans | 100,000 | China | 2025/2026 |
| 10/30/2025 | Soybeans | 238,000 | unknown destinations | 2025/2026 |
| 10/30/2025 | Soybean cake and meal | 237,500 | Philippines | 2025/2026 |
| 11/03/2025 | Soybeans | 232,000 | China | 2025/2026 |
| 11/06/2025 | Corn | 126,000 | unknown destinations | 2025/2026 |
| 11/06/2025 | Soybeans | 117,000 | unknown destinations | 2025/2026 |
| 11/11/2025 | Corn | 256,764 | unknown destinations | 2025/2026 |
| 11/12/2025 | Corn | 355,000 | Mexico | 2025/2026 |
With government reporting restored, traders are now watching closely for additional Chinese demand and clarity on the recent Trump/Xi agreement. Washington has said Beijing pledged to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end, though few details have emerged.
—USDA is still below Brazil’s CONAB on corn and soybean crop estimates. Consider:
Soybeans:
• USDA expects Brazil farmers will produce 175.0 MMT in 25/26, up from 171.5 MMT last year. But CONAB (USDA equivalent in Brazil ) said their farmers would produce 177.6 MMT for 25/26 crop year.
Corn:
• USDA went up from 135 to 136 old crop. But CONAB has taken it all the way to 141.095 MMT.
• USDA said for new crop that Brazil farmers will only produce 131 MMT. CONAB is at 138.8 MMT for 25/26.
—USDA boosts 2025 sorghum production
Stronger yields push production up 7% from September
USDA on Friday sharply raised its outlook for the 2025 U.S. sorghum crop, projecting 428.39 million bushels, a 7% jump from its September estimate and 25% above 2024’s output. The increase reflects significant improvements in yield and modest gains in harvested acreage.
The agency now pegs 2025 yields at 75 bushels per acre with 5.715 million acres harvested, up from 61.3 bushels per acre and 5.605 million acres in 2024, when production totaled 343.85 million bushels.
Despite the stronger supply, ending stocks dipped by 1 million bushels to 43 million, as higher food, seed, and industrial demand offset the production bump.
Farm prices are showing upward momentum: USDA now forecasts an average 2025/26 price of $3.80 per bushel, up a dime from September but still below 2024/25’s $4.07. The new marketing year began September 1.
USDA will release its next WASDE report on Dec. 9.
—USDA cuts 2025 livestock and poultry output forecasts
Broilers are the lone bright spot as beef, pork, turkey and eggs face supply pressures
USDA trimmed its 2025 red meat and poultry production outlook, citing lower beef, pork, turkey and egg output that is only partially offset by stronger broiler production. The revised estimates incorporate updated slaughter data, lighter weights in several species, and extensive Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling.
Beef, pork, and turkey pull down 2025 outlook; Broilers Rise
Beef production was lowered as reduced steer and heifer slaughter — combined with lighter carcass weights — outweighs higher expected cow and bull slaughter. Pork output was also cut, with slaughter running slower through early November and outweighing higher dressed weights. Revised hog inventories and pig crops from the September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report reinforce the downward adjustment.
Broiler production was raised for the third and fourth quarters based on strong slaughter data through early November. Turkey production was reduced due to HPAI-related culling and lower output reported through August. Egg production was lowered as well, reflecting both lower year-to-date production and additional HPAI cases in early November.
2026 outlook: Lower beef and pork, higher broilers, steady eggs
For 2026, USDA again trimmed beef and pork production — fed cattle marketings are expected to slow into mid-2026, while hog supplies are constrained by lower farrowing intentions. Broiler production rose as recent slaughter strength carries over. Turkey output was reduced in the first half of the year due to HPAI impacts, and egg production remains unchanged.
Trade shifts: Broiler exports up, turkey down
Beef import forecasts for 2025–26 are unchanged. Beef exports declined modestly in third-quarter 2025. Pork exports held steady for 2025 but eased in 2026 on tighter supplies. Broiler exports were raised for both years, supported by stronger recent shipments. Turkey exports were lowered for 2025–26 as domestic availability tightens.
Price outlook: Mixed across species. Reported monthly and daily prices drive several revisions:
• Cattle: Fourth-quarter 2025 prices were trimmed, with lower levels extending into 2026.
• Hogs: Q4 2025 prices were lowered, but 2026 prices rise due to tighter supplies.
• Broilers: Prices fell in late 2025 and are expected to continue lower in 2026 amid higher production.
• Turkeys: Prices are expected to increase in Q4 2025, with reduced output expected to support higher values into 2026.
•Eggs: Third-quarter weakness was forecast into early Q4, lowering 2025 and 2026 forecasts.
—Milk production and dairy trade: Higher output, adjusted imports and exports
USDA raised milk production forecasts for both 2025 and 2026, citing higher cow inventories and robust milk-per-cow productivity.
On a fat basis, 2025 imports are lowered due to fewer butter shipments. Skim-solids imports are unchanged. Dairy exports rise in 2025 on competitive butter and cheese prices and increased whey-product shipments. Fat-basis exports are also higher in 2026, while skim-solids exports remain steady.
—Agriculture markets Friday and weekly change:
| Commodity | Contract Month | Closing Price Nov. 14 | Difference from Nov . 13 | Price Change for Week |
| Corn | Dec | 4.30 1/4 | -11 1/4 cents | +3 cents |
| Soybeans | Jan | 11.24 1/2 | -22 1/2 cents | +7 1/2 cents |
| Soybean Meal | Dec | 322.50 | -$5.90 | +$4.40 |
| Bean Oil | Dec | 50.15 cents | -10 points | +47 points |
| SRW Wheat | Dec | 5.27 1/4 | -8 1/2 cents | -1/2 cent |
| HRW Wheat | Dec | 5.15 1/4 | -10 1/2 cents | -4 cents |
| Spring Wheat | Dec | 5.64 3/4 | -5 cents | +7 cents |
| Cotton | Dec | 62.49 cents | -41 points | -113 points |
| Live Cattle | Dec | 219.15 | +15 cents | -$2.20 |
| Feeder Cattle | Jan | 320.55 | +$2.10 | +97 1/2 cents |
| Lean Hogs | Dec | 78.50 | +42 1/2 cents | -90 cents |
| AG INDUSTRY FOCUS: JBS |
—JBS leans on global platform as U.S. beef squeeze drags margins
Record Q3 sales, strong Australia and Seara results and resilient pork/chicken offset tight U.S. cattle supplies and higher working-capital needs
JBS recently reported record Q3 2025 net sales of about $22.6 billion and net income of $581 million, with EPS of $0.52 (or $0.54 adjusted) and IFRS EBITDA of $1.8 billion (8.1% margin). Return on equity was about 24%, and leverage stood at 2.39x, which management said remains comfortably below its 2.5x ceiling even after $600 million in share buybacks, about $1.2 billion in dividends and roughly $1 billion in expansion capex.
Global CEO Gilberto Tomazoni and CFO Guilherme Cavalcanti framed the quarter as proof of JBS’s “multi-protein, multi-region” model: soft spots in U.S. beef and higher working capital were offset by strong results in Australia, Brazil beef (Friboi), Seara and Pilgrim’s Pride, plus a solid performance in U.S. pork.
U.S. beef under pressure, Australia and Seara shine. JBS Beef North America delivered record net revenue, but margins remained under pressure as limited cattle availability and record cattle prices outpaced still-elevated cutout values. Management said Q4 beef margins are tighter than Q3, in line with seasonal patterns, and recent futures volatility is adding hedging noise even as it hints at some relief on cattle costs.
By contrast, Australia remained a standout. Despite higher cattle prices, strong global demand for beef — about 75% of Australian production is exported — kept margins robust. Tomazoni said JBS is “bullish” on Australia into 2026, also citing a rebound in its salmon business (now over 20% margins) and better productivity in pork.
In Brazil, Friboi turned in another “consistent” quarter in export and domestic markets. JBS is leaning into retailer partnerships and “category management 2.0,” where it helps manage meat counters, product mix and staff training, which it says lifts both beef and broader store sales.
Seara delivered healthy margins and volume growth despite earlier export restrictions to China and the EU. With those bans now lifted, JBS expects improved mix and pricing as premium breast volumes return to Europe and wings and paws go back to China, easing pressure on lower-margin markets. Seara is also expanding its Prepared Foods portfolio at home — high-protein ready meals, an “Air Fryer” line and brand partnerships such as with Netflix.
Cash flow, capex and leverage. Free cash flow in Q3 was $383 million, down $612 million from the prior year. Cavalcanti cited three drivers:
• Lower EBITDA, particularly in U.S. beef, avian flu impacts at Seara, and higher Brazilian cattle costs;
• A $226 million increase in capex, mainly growth projects;
• $258 million in working-capital consumption, largely from higher livestock prices and higher revenues.
Updating a non-guidance “breakeven EBITDA” framework, JBS now sees:
• 2025 breakeven EBITDA at about $6 billion, assuming capex around $2 billion, working capital of $1.3 billion, ~$400 million in legal settlements, ~$650 million in biological assets, ~$1.15 billion in interest and ~$500 million in leases.
• 2026 breakeven at about $5 billion, with similar capex and biological assets but a lower, highly variable working-capital need (~$700 million), depending on grain, livestock and product prices.
• JBS completed roughly $570 million of Brazilian agribusiness receivables, including a 4-year tranche at inflation + 8% — equivalent to about +6.2% on a swapped basis — extending average debt maturity to 15.4 years at a 5.6% average cost. The company is edging its BRL-denominated debt (about 10%) toward its share of BRL revenues (about 12%) to limit FX risk.
Pork and chicken: value-added and integration. Analysts pressed JBS on its U.S. pork expansion and the outlook for Pilgrim’s Pride as chicken prices soften.
COO Wesley Batista Filho detailed two new U.S. pork prepared-foods plants in Iowa: Perry (sausages) and Ankeny (ready-to-eat bacon and sausage). The facilities will absorb trims and sow meat from existing operations and meet strong demand for processed products. They will not materially impact 2026, but beginning in 2027 management expects $500–750 million in added revenue at high double-digit EBITDA margins.
On chicken, Tomazoni said price weakness is concentrated in big birds. Pilgrim’s portfolio — spanning small, medium and big birds plus Prepared Foods — helps smooth volatility. He expects a “strong” chicken market in 2025–26 in both the U.S. and Brazil, citing structural constraints on supply growth (housing and genetics) and robust export demand.
In U.S. pork, JBS’s integrated model (own hogs, processing and Prepared Foods) and modern, double-shift plants underpin what Wesley called a “very consistent” 10% EBITDA business. Q2 margins had been hurt by export disruptions and inventory backups, but those issues are now cleared. He added that broader market access — especially for offal and by-products to China — would be a further tailwind but is not currently the main driver of margins.
Herd cycles and export positioning. Several questions focused on herd cycles and the interplay between the U.S., Brazil and Australia.
In the U.S., Wesley said there is clear evidence of female retention and sharply lower cow slaughter, with Q3 2025 cow kills around 545,000 versus roughly 973,000 in Q3 2022. He expects 2026 to remain a challenging year for U.S. beef supply, with gradual improvement starting in 2027.
In Brazil, Tomazoni cited industry estimates of a 3–5% reduction in cattle availability next year, but from an unusually high 2025 base, leaving overall supply still ample. He underscored the structural upside: Brazil has a larger herd than the U.S. but produces less beef, leaving room for gains via better genetics, feedlot growth and DDG-based feeding from expanding corn ethanol.
JBS also highlighted Swift frozen stores in Brazil as both a growth channel and a margin lever. By freezing beef at the plant instead of leaving it to consumers’ freezers, JBS claims to reduce yield loss, optimize carcass utilization and create a differentiated retail presence — sometimes via Swift “store-in-store” concepts inside supermarkets.
Capital returns and M&A. On capital returns, Cavalcanti reiterated JBS’s soft guidance to return about $1 billion per year to shareholders via dividends, if leverage remains in its comfort zone and the company preserves its investment-grade rating. Additional cash can be directed to share buybacks or special dividends, depending on M&A opportunities and market conditions.
He and Tomazoni both downplayed the prospect of large acquisitions in the near term, focusing instead on smaller, bolt-on deals in Prepared Foods. Any large deal, they stressed, would be shaped around rating-agency feedback on an appropriate capital structure.
Overall, management’s message was that U.S. beef remains in the trough of its cycle, but Australia, Brazil beef, Seara, chicken, and pork—plus a growing prepared-foods base—are doing the heavy lifting as JBS pushes to maintain returns, fund growth projects and keep leverage in check.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices jumped Friday as Ukrainian strike halts Russian exports
Novorossiisk attack disrupts 2% of global crude flows; sanctions and new strikes tighten supply outlook
Oil prices climbed sharply Friday after a Ukrainian drone strike forced Russia to halt exports from its key Black Sea hub at Novorossiisk, injecting fresh geopolitical risk into global energy markets. Brent crude settled $1.38 higher at $64.39 per barrel, while WTI added $1.40 to reach $60.09. For the week, Brent gained 1.2% and WTI rose about 0.6%.
The strike damaged storage tanks, nearby apartment buildings, and a vessel docked in port, prompting pipeline operator Transneft to suspend flows into a facility that typically handles about 2.2 million barrels per day — roughly 2% of global crude supply. Analysts warned the scale and frequency of recent Ukrainian attacks raise the potential for more prolonged disruptions.
Ukraine also launched overnight strikes on refineries and storage facilities in Russia’s Saratov and Engels regions, amplifying concerns about refined product availability.
Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are snarling Russia’s export logistics. JPMorgan estimates roughly 1.4 million barrels per day, nearly one-third of Russia’s seaborne crude, are currently idling on tankers as traders struggle to navigate payment and delivery restrictions ahead of the Nov. 21 deadline.
In Europe, Britain granted a temporary license to keep two Lukoil subsidiaries in Bulgaria operating after Sofia moved to seize control of the assets — a step meant to avoid sudden supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, U.S. oil rigs increased by three to 417 last week, according to Baker Hughes, signaling continued resilience in domestic drilling.
Despite broader concerns about oversupply heading into 2026, this week’s events underscored how geopolitical flashpoints — from Ukraine’s expanding strike campaign to tightening sanctions — remain a crucial support for crude prices as the year draws to a close.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Sorghum producers: New Latin America trade frameworks are a start — but sorghum must be explicitly included
NSP welcomes the new frameworks but urges USTR and USDA to specifically include sorghum in market-access commitments
The administration’s newly announced trade frameworks with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala create a promising opening for U.S. agriculture. Each agreement pairs targeted U.S. tariff relief with new market-access commitments for U.S. farm goods, autos and industrial products, alongside provisions on labor, environment and digital trade.
But for sorghum producers, the details matter — and right now, the crop risks being an afterthought.
Agricultural openings are welcome — but incomplete. All four frameworks pledge better treatment for U.S. agricultural exports. Argentina and Ecuador are reducing barriers on food and feed products, while El Salvador and Guatemala are committing to science-based rules, streamlined authorizations and clearer pathways for U.S. meat, dairy and processed foods. These provisions create a more predictable trading environment — one that should benefit sorghum once it’s clearly included.
Livestock and feed dynamics will shape sorghum demand. The agreements contain important provisions for beef, poultry and pork access, as well as tariff changes on inputs like coffee and bananas. As these markets shift, so do feeding patterns. Any increase in regional meat production directly influences demand for feed grains — including sorghum — but only if sorghum is formally recognized in the agreements.
Regulatory alignment matters for grain movement. Commitments on licensing, product registration and electronic certification will make it easier to move U.S. grain, but the benefits depend on the specifics. Sorghum and sorghum-based products need to be explicitly named in agriculture annexes and implementation texts, not buried under generic references to “grains” or “feed.”
NSP’s position: These frameworks are a constructive start, but they remain unfinished from a sorghum perspective. The National Sorghum Producers (NSP) are pressing USTR and USDA to write sorghum directly into the fine print to ensure the crop fully benefits from market openings and regulatory streamlining.
Bottom Line: Trade frameworks that open markets are good. Trade frameworks that clearly recognize sorghum are better. NSP will continue working to ensure sorghum is not left out of the next phase of negotiations.
| BORDER, IMMIGRATION, DEPORTATION & LABOR |
—H-2A wage rule draws divided early feedback as Dec. 1 comment deadline nears
Stakeholders split over wage cuts, data methodology, and new housing adjustments in DOL’s interim final rule
The public comment period on the Department of Labor’s (DOL) interim final rule overhauling how H-2A farmworker wages are calculated closes on Dec. 1, and early feedback from employers, labor advocates, and policy groups suggests the rule is shaping up to be one of the most consequential — and controversial — changes to agricultural labor policy in years.
The rule, issued Oct. 2 and already in effect, replaces the longstanding USDA Farm Labor Survey with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) data to determine Adverse Effect Wage Rates (AEWRs) for non-range agricultural occupations. It also creates new two-tiered wage “skill levels,” adjusts wages downward when employers provide housing, and moves AEWR publication to a new July 1 annual schedule.
Grower groups see relief from rising wage floors. Agricultural employers and industry associations have responded positively, arguing the changes will help stabilize H-2A costs after several years of double-digit wage increases driven by the old methodology. Groups such as the National Council of Agricultural Employers have framed the rule as “much-needed relief,” saying the OEWS-based approach provides a more predictable and consistent wage framework.
Some early comments emphasize that the updated formula reduces extreme year-to-year volatility, particularly in states where AEWRs had surged under the discontinued Farm Labor Survey. Employers also say the new system better reflects labor-market conditions across occupations — especially for equipment operators, irrigation workers, and packing-facility employees whose duties did not always align cleanly with prior categories.
Labor advocates warn of potential pay reductions. Worker-advocacy organizations and some state agencies, however, are signaling sharp concerns. They argue that shifting to OEWS data and introducing a housing-based downward adjustment could lead to wage cuts for some H-2A workers — undermining the AEWR’s statutory purpose of preventing adverse effects on U.S. farmworker wages.
Advocates also say OEWS data may not capture the specialized nature of agricultural labor with the same precision as the former USDA survey. Several groups have previewed comments questioning whether the two-tier skill system may allow employers to classify most positions as “entry-level,” thereby lowering wages compared to previous seasons.
A recurring issue in early commentary is uncertainty over how employers will classify job duties into the new skill categories. Worker groups warn this could incentivize misclassification unless DOL provides clearer guidelines or increased oversight.
Housing adjustment emerges as a key flashpoint. The rule introduces a new, optional downward wage adjustment for employers who provide free housing to H-2A workers. The reduction does not apply to U.S. workers in the same job, who must receive the full AEWR. Early commenters on both sides have signaled this provision is likely to be among the most contested.
Growers welcome the adjustment to account for the significant value of free housing — often one of the largest cost components of the H-2A program. Worker advocates counter that applying the reduction only to foreign workers could create inequities and potentially weaken wage protections.
Requests for clarity on implementation. Across the spectrum, stakeholders are using the comment period to request clarification on several operational issues:
• How job-duty classifications will be enforced under the skill-level system.
• How large the housing adjustment will be in each state and how DOL will monitor its application.
• How wage floors may interact with state minimum-wage increases scheduled for 2026 and beyond.
• How transitioning contracts that span the rule’s effective date should be treated.
• Whether OEWS data will be expanded or modified to better reflect agricultural realities.
Impact on 2026 labor planning. Because the rule is already in effect, the Dec. 1 comments are unlikely to disrupt implementation in the upcoming season. Instead, the docket is expected to influence follow-up guidance from DOL, enforcement priorities, and potential adjustments to the first OEWS-based AEWRs scheduled for release next July.
For growers already finalizing 2026 H-2A job orders, the rule represents both an opportunity for cost stabilization and a period of regulatory uncertainty.
For labor advocates, it marks a critical moment to ensure wage floors remain strong enough to protect domestic workers while still providing a lawful avenue for agricultural labor.
Bottom Line: As the comment window closes, the divide between employers and worker advocates underscores what’s at stake: the balance between agricultural labor affordability and worker wage protections in a sector increasingly dependent on the H-2A program.
| WEATHER |
— Winter wild card: stratospheric warming could collide with La Niña
Scientists warn an “extraordinary” atmospheric event may reshape the U.S. winter outlook
A rare atmospheric shift high above the Arctic may be about to clash with the developing La Niña — and forecasters say the result could rewrite the U.S. winter forecast. According to USA Today, climatologist Judah Cohen of MIT said the atmosphere is at a “critical juncture” and November could be a decisive “fork in the road” for the rest of winter.
Weather models now hint at the possibility of a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, a dramatic spike in temperatures tens of miles above the North Pole that could shove frigid air south into the United States.
A potentially “extraordinary and unique” event. Cohen told USA Today that an SSW is the most powerful type of disruption to the polar vortex — the cold-core cyclone that spins around the Arctic every winter. Temperatures in the polar stratosphere can surge more than 100 degrees in a matter of days, displacing the vortex far south of its typical position and unleashing bitter cold outbreaks.
If such warming happens this month, it would be the first November SSW ever recorded in the satellite era, Cohen said. Only two similar events — in 1958 and 1968 — occurred before modern observations. That makes the current setup “extraordinary, even unique,” he added.
La Niña vs. the Polar Vortex. Although La Niña usually shapes jet stream patterns and storm tracks, Cohen emphasized that the polar vortex will likely determine how cold the U.S. gets. The two forces won’t battle for dominance; instead, they interact. La Niña helps steer cold air, but the vortex dictates its intensity. “The behavior of the polar vortex is more influential in determining if the U.S. will experience cold weather,” Cohen explained to USA Today.
Will the cold reach the ground? Whether Americans feel the deep freeze hinges on whether the stratospheric warming couples strongly with the lower atmosphere. If that coupling is strong, Cohen said, the U.S. could see an extended period of below-normal temperatures and increased snowfall beginning in December and potentially lasting into early January.
But if the connection “short circuits,” the opposite could occur — a relatively mild winter, despite La Niña’s presence.
For now, forecasters are watching the stratosphere closely. A historic atmospheric upheaval may be unfolding — one that could abruptly tip the U.S. toward a bitterly cold winter or spare it entirely.
—NWS outlook: Additional heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and debris
flows possible for parts of Southern California today… …Well above-normal to record-breaking warmth today across the Central/Southern Plains and the Midwest today, continuing across the Southern Plains through early next week… …Wintry mix across northern New York and New England, with several inches of snow in the higher elevations late today into Sunday…
