Think U.S. Can’t Deal with High Fertilizer Prices? Look What Colombia is Doing
Rollins again signals farmer aid coming… and alerts more China buys of U.S. soybeans ahead | Daily export sale: 123,000 metric tons soybeans to China, 2025/2026 MY
Link: The Week Ahead, Nov. 23, 2025: Hassett Sees “Blockbuster” 2026 Ahead
in Interview with Maria Bartiromo
Link: Weekend Updates, Nov. 22, 2025: Analysis of Tyson Closing Neb. Beef Plant,
Scaling Back Texas Operation
Link: Tyson to Shutter Lexington, Neb. Beef Plant, Cut Shift in Texas
Link: Audio: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov 21
Link: Video: Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives, Nov. 21
Today’s Updates:
TOP STORIES
— Rollins again signals coming farmer aid package, and more soybean buys by China
— Airlines reroute as U.S. issues security alert over Venezuelan airspace
— USDA’s Ag Trade Outlook returns Tuesday after months of “tables-only” releases
— Lutnick: U.S. and China can “work through” any new trade friction
— Trump says tariff revenues set to surge as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindle
— A new read on CEO tariff anxiety
— EU urges Washington to deliver on July trade deal
— Bessent: No broad recession risk, touts 2026 growth setup
FINANCIAL MARKETS
— Equities today: Global markets were steady but uneven to start a data-packed week
— Holiday-shortened week still brings a heavy data load as agencies play catch-up
— N.Y. Fed President John Williams signaled support for rate cut while other officials
urged patience
— Fed’s internal rift, not Powell, emerges as the real barrier to rate cuts
— Weekly economic update: Global slowdown confirms U.S. downshift
AG MARKETS
— USDA daily export sale: 123,000 metric tons soybeans to China, 2025/2026 MY
— Brazil’s planting wraps up
— Record low October placements deepen tight cattle supply outlook
— Colombia drops tariffs on key ag inputs (fertilizer) — a temporary lifeline
as U.S. farmers face the opposite trend
— Brazil’s egg giants go global
FARM POLICY
— Sugar policy peace in Washington
— EU set to push back deforestation rule by one year
ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY
— Oil prices fell today, extending last week’s decline of about 3%
TRADE POLICY
— Brazil and Australia emerge as early winners in Trump’s tariff realignment
— Japan/China beef talks collapse amid diplomatic rift
— A stronger North American trade deal
— Canada rewrites its trade map as Trump’s tariffs bite
CONGRESS
— GOP lays out ambitious reconciliation blueprint
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— GOP House majority on a knife’s edge
— Why affordability now defines the Trump presidency
— White House pushes back against claims it’s ignoring the economy
WEATHER
— NWS outlook: A stretch snow expected near the Canadian border of Montana,
then across the northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes
Updates: Policy/News/Markets, Nov. 24, 2025
Up Front — Rollins again signals coming farmer aid package, and more soybean buys by China: Rollins says a new farmer-aid package and fresh Chinese soybean purchases should both be announced within the next week or two.—USDA daily export sale: 123,000 metric tons soybeans to China, 2025/2026 MY— Airlines reroute as U.S. issues security alert over Venezuelan airspace: Multiple international airlines have halted flights and are skirting Venezuelan airspace after an FAA alert about heightened military activity.— USDA’s Ag Trade Outlook returns Tuesday after months of “tables-only” releases: USDA will finally pair data with narrative analysis again, updating a trade outlook that currently shows record ag-import-driven deficits.— Lutnick: U.S. and China can “work through” any new trade friction: Commerce Secretary Lutnick downplays rare-earth tensions with China and touts the U.S./Saudi chip deal as a model for future tech partnerships.— Trump says tariff revenues set to surge as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindle: Trump predicts tariff income will “skyrocket” as importers burn through pre-tariff inventories and await a Supreme Court ruling on his tariff program.— A new read on CEO tariff anxiety: A WSJ review finds corporate leaders more resigned than panicked about tariffs, with many saying the costs are now “manageable” after policy tweaks and supply-chain shifts.— EU urges Washington to deliver on July trade deal: EU trade officials will press the U.S. to cut steel tariffs and scrap duties on wine and spirits while warning new U.S. tariff threats could undercut July’s deal.— Bessent: No broad recession risk, touts 2026 growth setup: Treasury’s Bessent argues the shutdown damage is contained and says tax cuts, lower rates and trade deals set up strong, non-inflationary growth for 2026.— Equities today: Global stocks are mixed as traders weigh rising odds of a December Fed rate cut against lingering policy uncertainty and uneven regional performance.— A holiday-shortened week still brings a heavy data load: Retail sales, core PCE, PPI and durable-goods data will give investors a fuller read on September growth and inflation after the shutdown backlog.— New York Fed President John Williams signaled support for a rate cut: Williams leans toward easing while other officials preach patience, lifting December-cut odds and leaving markets to parse a divided Fed; crypto and earnings remain choppy.— Fed’s internal rift, not Powell, emerges as the real barrier to rate cuts: A WSJ deep dive says factional splits on the FOMC—not Powell alone—are making a December cut uncertain and could politicize Fed decision-making.— Weekly economic update: Global slowdown confirms U.S. downshift: Economist Michael Drury argues immigration reform has lowered U.S. potential growth while global weakness and tariffs are redistributing the slowdown abroad.— Brazil’s planting wraps up: Brazil’s big corn and soybean crops are nearly in, keeping South American supplies ample and undercutting U.S. new-crop prices.— Record low October placements deepen tight cattle supply outlook: USDA’s cattle-on-feed report shows the weakest October placements on record, reinforcing expectations for tight fed-cattle supplies into 2026.— Colombia drops tariffs on key ag inputs — a temporary lifeline as U.S. farmers face the opposite trend: Bogotá has zeroed out tariffs on fertilizers and crop-protection products for a year, sharply contrasting with the higher-cost environment facing U.S. producers.— Brazil’s egg giants go global: Brazilian companies are rapidly buying egg operations in the U.S., Europe and South America, driving consolidation and globalization in a once-local industry.— Sugar policy peace in Washington: A Bloomberg Government piece details a rare truce between Big Sugar and Big Candy that modestly loosens the sugar program but leaves its costly core intact.— EU set to push back deforestation rule by one year: The European Parliament is poised to delay EUDR enforcement to 2026–27 and open the door to simplifying—and possibly revising—the rules.— Oil prices fell today: Crude extended last week’s selloff as traders weighed Fed-cut hopes against prospects for a Russia–Ukraine deal that could unlock more Russian supply.— Brazil and Australia emerge as early winners in Trump’s tariff realignment: Brazil secures key exemptions on coffee and beef while Australia benefits from stronger gold and beef flows to the U.S.— Japan/China beef talks collapse amid diplomatic rift: Beijing has halted final talks to resume Japanese beef imports after a dispute over Taiwan, derailing Tokyo’s plans to tap China as a major growth market.— A stronger North American trade deal: WSJ columnist Mary Anastasia O’Grady says USMCA is boosting North American trade but needs enforcement fixes ahead of the 2026 joint review to avoid long-term uncertainty.— Canada rewrites its trade map as Trump’s tariffs bite: The Washington Post reports Ottawa is racing to deepen ties with China, India and other partners to reduce its heavy reliance on the U.S. market.— GOP lays out ambitious reconciliation blueprint: RSC Chair August Pfluger argues Republicans are preparing a broad “Reconciliation 2.0” package aimed at affordability, law-and-order and family policy, not just tax cuts.— GOP House majority on a knife’s edge: Punchbowl News warns that special elections and potential vacancies could erase the GOP’s slim edge and hand House control to Democrats sometime in 2026.— Why affordability now defines the Trump presidency: A Financial Times editorial says persistent cost-of-living strains mean Trump now personally owns the affordability problem heading into 2026.— NWS outlook: Heavy snow is forecast from Montana through the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes, while much of the central and eastern U.S. stays unusually warm ahead of a sharp cool-down in the Plains. Top Stories—Rollins again signals coming farmer aid package, and more soybean buys by ChinaUSDA chief says farmer aid details and fresh Chinese buying of soybeans could land “within the next week or two”USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins told CNBCthat the Trump administration’s long-anticipated farmer-aid package is nearly ready, saying the department expects to unveil details “in the next week or two.” Rollins said the program is designed to help producers absorb the ongoing tariff and trade volatility. On potential trade progress, Rollins also suggested new Chinese commitments for U.S. soybeans are close, noting, “I know they are inking the deal this week or next week.” She said the administration expects movement on both fronts — aid and China purchases — on roughly the same timeline. Rollins’ comments follow weeks of speculation among growers, commodity groups, and agribusiness leaders awaiting clarity on how the White House plans to structure the next round of producer support as tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on crop markets.—Airlines reroute as U.S. issues security alert over Venezuelan airspaceCarriers across Europe and Latin America halt flights after FAA warns of rising military activity and heightened risk over Venezuela A growing list of international airlines suspended flights to Venezuela over the weekend after the Federal Aviation Administration issued a NOTAM warning pilots of an “increasingly unstable” security environment and elevated military activity across the country’s airspace. The advisory comes amid a visible U.S. military buildup in the region and widespread rerouting of aircraft over northern South America. Details: According to Marisela de Loaiza, president of the Airline Association of Venezuela, at least six major carriers — Iberia, TAP Air Portugal, Avianca, GOL, LATAM, and Caribbean Airlines— pulled flights, with Turkish Airlines separately announcing a suspension of service from November 24–28. FlightRadar24 data early Monday showed airlines giving Venezuela’s airspace a wide berth. The NOTAM urged pilots to exercise caution at all altitudes, noting that deteriorating security conditions “could pose a potential risk to aircraft during all phases of flight.” The Pentagon and U.S. Southern Command have not commented publicly on the advisory. The disruptions come as political tensions flare. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro criticized the flight pauses on X, arguing that “blocking countries is blocking people” and calling such restrictions “a crime against humanity.” Meanwhile, a new CBS News/YouGov poll shows broad public reluctance toward U.S. involvement in Venezuela: 70% of Americans oppose any military action, and large bipartisan majorities believe the president must seek congressional approval and clearly explain any decisions involving force. —USDA’s Ag Trade Outlook returns Tuesday after months of “tables-only” releasesAfter two comment-free editions, analysts are watching closely to see whether FAS and ERS restore full narrative guidance on export and import trends FAS has scheduled the Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade for release on Tuesday, noting on its website that the report is jointly issued with ERS. The publication has drawn unusual attention in recent months after the May edition was delayed and then issued without the customary narrative commentary — releasing only data tables instead of the analytical explanations that normally accompany the forecasts. The August update followed the same “tables-only” approach. In that August release, USDA projected fiscal year (FY) 2025 agricultural exports at $173 billion versus record imports of $220 billion, leaving a record-high $47 billion trade deficit. The initial FY 2026 outlook showed exports dipping to $169 billion and imports easing to $210.5 billion — still producing a substantial $41.5 billion deficit. Presumably the new tariffs will curb import volumes, but persistent weakness in U.S. agricultural exports continues to weigh on the sector — pushing the record $196 billion export peak of FY 2022 further into the rearview mirror. The return of the full report this week comes as analysts expect the newly imposed tariffs to curb some import volumes, even as U.S. producers continue to face competitiveness challenges abroad.—Lutnick: U.S. and China can “work through” any new trade frictionCommerce secretary signals confidence in supply-chain stability and touts Saudi chip deal as exportable modelCommerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Monday he expects any fresh tensions in the U.S./China trading relationship to be resolved, telling Fox Business that outstanding issues “will work their way through” despite growing concerns over strategic materials and defense-linked supply chains.Lutnick was responding to a question about reports that China is withholding rare-earth minerals from U.S. companies with connections to the American military — an area policymakers increasingly view as a national-security pressure point. While he didn’t detail ongoing discussions, Lutnick signaled confidence that both countries will ultimately manage the dispute without major disruption. He also pointed to the U.S./Saudi Arabia semiconductor agreement as a potential template for future technology-partnership deals, noting that the framework could be replicated with other countries seeking to build out reliable chip supply chains aligned with U.S. interests. —Trump says tariff revenues set to surge as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindlePresident argues “record-setting” payments are coming as importers exhaust inventories purchased ahead of sweeping levies, with Supreme Court’s pending decision looming over the tariff regime President Donald Trump on Monday claimed U.S. tariff revenues are on the verge of a major jump, arguing that importers who rushed to stockpile foreign goods ahead of his broad tariff rollout are now running low on inventory. In a Truth Social post, Trump said the U.S. has already collected “Hundreds of Billions of Dollars” in tariff income, but insisted the “full benefit” hasn’t been felt because many buyers “purchashed far more inventory than they can use in order to avoid Tariff payments in the short term.” Without providing supporting data, he asserted those pre-tariff stockpiles are now “running thin,” meaning importers “will [soon] pay tariffs on everything they apply to” — a shift he said will cause revenues to “SKYROCKET.” Trump framed the expected revenue surge as both economically and strategically transformative, calling the coming tariff payments “RECORD SETTING” and claiming that “Tariff POWER will bring America National Security and Wealth the likes of which has never been seen before.” Looking ahead, Trump highlighted the pending Supreme Court decision on the legality of his sweeping tariff actions. After the Court heard oral arguments earlier this month, he urged an “urgent and time-sensitive” ruling that would allow his tariff program to continue “in an uninterrupted manner.” While the Court typically takes months to issue opinions after arguments, it remains unclear whether Trump’s push for expedited timing will influence the decision schedule. If his assessment is correct, goods that have so far escaped tariff costs through stockpiling could see price increases — potentially affecting consumers during the holiday shopping season.—A new read on CEO tariff anxietyExecutives are learning to live with Trump’s trade war, WSJ analysis shows Business leaders may not love President Trump’s tariff regime, but they are increasingly adapting to it. A new Wall Street Journal analysis by Theo Francis of more than 5,000 earnings calls finds that executive angst has eased noticeably in recent months — even as headline tariff rates remained steep and policy shifts came fast. The article reports that after a year of volatile tariff escalations, many CEOs now sound less panicked and more resigned, with several even pointing to improving conditions. “We believe that the worst of the tariff and economic disruptions to our businesses are now behind us,” said Spectrum Brands CEO David Maura, capturing a sentiment increasingly common in Q4 calls. The Journal’s data — derived from NL Analytics — shows that references to tariffs on earnings calls have dropped, and the share of negative comments has declined sharply from earlier in 2025. While companies paid roughly 12% of the value of imports as tariffs in October, that’s far below the most dramatic rates policymakers had threatened. Executives have also gotten better at working around the costs through exemptions, pricing adjustments, and supply-chain shifts. “What they’re saying is the tariffs are manageable for them,” Deutsche Bank analyst Parag Thatte told the Journal. Some of that improved mood reflects recent policy moves. Trump has rolled back or suspended certain food and agricultural tariffs in response to voter affordability concerns — part of a wave of November adjustments that included lifting duties on beef, coffee, cocoa, and other products. Hershey executives, initially bracing for a $200 million tariff hit in 2026, said there was now “a little bit more optimism on tariffs” after cocoa was exempted mid-month. Ford Motor offers another example of shifting expectations. CEO James Farley warned in February that new tariff proposals would wipe out billions in industry profits. By fall, updated programs offsetting auto-parts levies cut Ford’s projected 2025 tariff hit in half, to $1 billion — while a new heavy-truck tariff advantaged Ford against rivals. The company’s late-October tone was noticeably less negative. Other firms remain wary. Cabinet maker MasterBrand flagged new tariffs on vanities, cabinets, and imported wood products that could equal up to 8% of annual net sales before mitigation. “That is the hardest part of this tariff regime,” CEO David Banyard said. “It comes in fairly quickly, and it takes us time to mitigate it.” Overall, the WSJ’s review shows corporate America adjusting—grudgingly but effectively — to a trade landscape defined by high, shifting tariffs and political urgency around affordability. As the 2026 midterm cycle approaches and pressure mounts to ease consumer prices, executives appear cautiously optimistic that the policy environment may continue to moderate. —EU urges Washington to deliver on July trade dealBloc presses U.S. to scale back steel, wine and spirits tariffs amid wider tariff concerns European Union trade officials are expected to press U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer today to cut tariffs on EU steel — and eliminate U.S. duties on European wine and spirits — as promised under the July transatlantic trade deal. Although EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič emphasized that today’s meeting “is not about negotiations” but a “stock-taking exercise” and a “political assessment of EU-US bilateral relations,” diplomats from all 27 member states intend to raise concerns that Washington’s recent tariff threats could destabilize the agreement. EU officials are particularly worried about possible new U.S. tariffs on trucks, critical minerals, plants and wind turbines — measures they argue would undermine the spirit of cooperation struck in July.1The session marks the first full in-person engagement between U.S. and EU trade officials since President Donald Trump returned to office, giving Brussels an opportunity to assess whether Washington plans to follow through on its commitments or escalate tensions. —Bessent: No broad recession risk, touts 2026 growth setupA more upbeat outlook after shutdown hit Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters reporters that despite the $11 billion permanent economic loss from the 43-day shutdown, the U.S. economy faces no recession risk as a whole, citing easing rates, tax relief, and new trade deals as reasons for optimism heading into 2026. Bessent said on NBC’s Meet the Press that interest-rate-sensitive sectors like housing had technically been in recession, but he does not see the overall economy sliding into negative growth. He stuck with the Trump administration’s long-held argument that services-sector dynamics — not tariffs — remain the primary driver of inflation, predicting that lower energy costs would help cool price pressures. He also highlighted that inflation runs 0.5 percentage points higher in Democratic-run states, which he attributed to heavier regulation. Despite factory-sector softness and consumer frustration reflected in the University of Michigan sentiment survey, Bessent insisted: “I am very, very optimistic on 2026. We have set the table for a very strong, non-inflationary growth economy.” Energy prices declined in October, home sales improved, and the administration is pushing targeted price relief where possible — including recent tariff cuts on bananas, coffee, beef and other food imports tied to long-running trade negotiations. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, appearing on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, echoed the upbeat tone, forecasting “an absolute blockbuster year” in 2026 despite a temporary fourth quarter “hiccup” caused by the shutdown. He expects manufacturing job gains to reinforce growth momentum next year. Link for details. Bessent also said tax-policy changes — including capping taxes on overtime, cutting taxes on tips and some Social Security income, and making auto-loan interest deductible — will boost real incomes and result in “substantial” tax refunds in early 2026. He reiterated that the administration will roll out a healthcare-cost plan this week, though he offered no specifics. Looking ahead to Jan/ 30, when funding expires again for nine agencies, Bessent argued Republicans should end the Senate filibuster if Democrats trigger another shutdown — echoing President Trump’s demand. He also pointed to a wave of new trade agreements and anticipated plant openings nationwide as tailwinds for 2026 growth. |
| FINANCIAL MARKETS |
—Equities today: Global markets were steady but uneven to start a data-packed week, with investors positioning around rising odds of a December U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut — even as divisions among Fed policymakers keep the outlook uncertain. Wall Street futures offered little clear direction early Monday. U.S. equities finished Friday in the green after Nvidia’s earnings beat yanked the market out of an early slide, boosted further by chatter that the Trump administration may permit H200 chip sales to China. Fed commentary remained mixed. No Fed officials were on the speaking schedule for the holiday week, but that does not mean that officials could offer up comments to news services. In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong +2%. China +0.1%. India -0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
—A holiday-shortened week still brings a heavy data load as agencies play catch-up after the shutdown. Tuesday’s September Retail Sales and Wednesday’s Core PCE Index — though dated — will shape expectations for a possible December Fed rate cut. If both land in line with forecasts, they reinforce a “Goldilocks” backdrop of steady growth and cooling inflation, according to the Sevens Report.
September PPI arrives Tuesday as well, offering another chance to counter hawkish Fed voices by showing stable price pressures. Wednesday’s Durable Goods report will provide a window into business investment, with AI-related capex expected to keep orders firm.
None of these releases are part of the marquee “Big Three,” but together they offer a broad read on September’s economic activity and inflation trajectory. Investors are hoping for steady, non-surprising numbers — conditions that would bolster stocks and sustain momentum, especially in AI-linked sectors.
— New York Fed President John Williams signaled support for a rate cut while other officials urged patience — lifting the odds of a December cut to roughly 70%. Crypto stayed under pressure, with Bitcoin extending its drop amid roughly $2 billion in liquidations and rising index-related risks for major crypto firms. Earnings were a mixed bag: BJ’s delivered steady results, VinFast continued to burn cash, and Manchester United leaned heavily on sponsorship revenue to prop up performance.
—Fed’s internal rift, not Powell, emerges as the real barrier to rate cuts
Deep divisions inside the Federal Reserve show that replacing the chair won’t guarantee easier policy — and could usher in a more openly political central bank
A Wall Street Journal analysis by Nick Timiraos argues that President Trump may find that swapping out Jerome Powell next May won’t deliver the lower interest rates he expects. The real obstacle is a sharply divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where opposition to another rate cut in December is broader and more entrenched than at any point in Powell’s eight-year tenure.
The Fed’s once-stable consensus model — cultivated since the mid-1990s — has fractured. A substantial bloc of reserve bank presidents is resisting a third cut, citing tariff- and immigration-related pressures that are simultaneously slowing job growth and raising prices. With the shutdown having blacked out key economic data, officials no longer share a common analytical baseline, making agreement even harder. Markets now see December’s decision as a toss-up, despite a late supportive signal from New York Fed President John Williams.
The fragmentation highlights that the chair is only one vote — and one quarterback — within a 12-member voting body that includes both political appointees and independent Fed presidents. Even a new Trump-appointed chair will have to win over a committee where dissent is growing, and where several officials want clearer signs of a weakening economy or falling inflation before easing further.
Beyond December, veteran policymakers warn that a deeply split Fed could become the norm. If dissent turns partisan rather than analytical, some fear Trump could escalate efforts to reshape the institution, including replacing reserve bank presidents or sidelining the Fed’s traditionally nonpartisan research staff. Trump has already moved to remove Governor Lisa Cook and publicly pressured Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “work on” Powell to cut rates.
Meanwhile, potential successors — including Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller — have criticized the Fed’s internal culture and signaled they favor sharper breaks from the status quo. But as Timiraos notes, even they would inherit a committee conditioned by conflict, not consensus.
The next chair may find that the real challenge isn’t Powell’s legacy — but leading a Fed where “raw majority votes” become routine, consensus breaks down, and political pressure threatens decades of institutional independence.
—Weekly economic update: Global slowdown confirms U.S. downshift
Michael Drury says immigration reform is reshaping potential growth as global weakness cushions U.S. slowdown
The latest Weekly Economic Update from Chief Economist Michael Drury, Chief Economist at McVean Trading & Investments, LLC, a Memphis-based global macro advisory and investment firm. It provides the first clean look at U.S. data since the shutdown — and it reinforces his central thesis: immigration reform has structurally lowered both actual and potential U.S. growth, while global softness continues to “absorb” much of the downturn the U.S. might otherwise feel more sharply.
Drury notes that August’s long-delayed trade report shows U.S. imports plunging under tariff pressure, a shift that is rippling across Asia’s factory floors. China and Japan are faltering, and major Southeast Asian exporters — Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea — are reporting weakening fundamentals as they lose access to the U.S. market. The global correction has pushed WTI crude below $60, spurred Japan to approve a $135 billion stimulus, and prompted China to consider more real-estate support. Europe’s defense-driven stimulus adds another offset, brightening the 2026 global outlook.
At home, Drury says two major uncertainties—the Trump/Xi tariff confrontation and the U.S. gov’t shutdown—have been “laid to rest for now.” While the Trump/Xi meeting established new trade ground rules, he warns the situation remains fluid: China has allowed more chips to auto manufacturers and signaled soybean purchases, but still resists rare earth licensing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s rhetoric about China stepping up purchases remains far ahead of reality, he says.
On the U.S. labor front, Drury highlights that September payrolls showed just 119,000 new jobs, with the third quarter monthly average dropping to 62,000 — well below the pre-reform four-quarter average of 147,000. With immigration reform cutting the foreign-born labor force sharply, he estimates potential GDP has fallen to just above 1%, lowering the neutral interest rate and justifying the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts.
Drury argues that real third-quarter GDP is far weaker than the Atlanta Fed’s 4.2% GDPNow estimate. His income proxy — hours worked × average hourly earnings — shows just over 1% real growth, with similarly muted momentum heading into Q4. Firms appear to be settling into a “no hire, no fire” posture, relying on attrition to calibrate employment.
Unemployment claims remain stable, with insured unemployment up only 0.1% over two years — a sign, he says, that employers are reluctant to lay off workers amid a shrinking labor force. September’s unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, largely due to a surge in labor force participation — not a collapse in hiring.
Sectorally, manufacturing and transportation continue to drag — direct casualties of higher tariffs — while health care and leisure & hospitality remain the primary job-growth engines. Retail data from Walmart underscores consumers’ dual behavior: widespread trading down but surprisingly resilient luxury spending, a pattern echoed by major banks.
Drury closes with a warning about China’s expanding global financial footprint. A new AidData report finds China has lent over $2.2 trillion since 2000, including more than $200 billion to the U.S. since 2020 — part of an accelerating shift away from Belt & Road toward more strategic lending. Combined with the Federal Reserve’s uncovering of an additional $1 trillion in Cayman Islands Treasury holdings potentially tied to China, Drury argues that Beijing’s control over global capital allocation — rather than trade flows alone — is the real long-term strategic concern.
Quote of note: “While the Federal Reserve may control the supply of the world’s reserve currency,” Drury writes, “China controls its allocation. That still keeps us up at night.”
| AG MARKETS |
—USDA daily export sale: 123,000 metric tons soybeans to China, 2025/2026 MY
—Brazil’s planting wraps up
South American soybeans still undercutting U.S. new-crop prices
Brazil’s corn and soybean plantings are entering the final stretch, with fieldwork effectively wrapping up in the Center-West and only late-cycle areas in the South and Northeast still finishing. The near-completion of Brazil’s massive 2025 crop — coupled with softer internal logistics costs as freight bottlenecks ease — is keeping South American export supplies both ample and aggressively priced.
South American beans still cheaper than U.S. new crop. Despite the U.S. market’s attempt to firm on tighter domestic stocks and ongoing uncertainty over Chinese buying programs, Brazilian forward offers remain at a notable discount:
• Brazilian new-crop soybeans (Feb–Apr) continue to price below comparable U.S. Gulf and PNW slots, driven by:
- A larger-than-expected harvest finish in Mato Grosso and Paraná
- Strong producer selling after currency weakness
- Competition from Argentina’s rebound in crush and exportable meal/oil
- Freight cost declines tied to improved truck availability and easing fuel prices
• U.S. new-crop beans are still carrying a risk-premium linked to:
- Tight balance sheets
- Uncertain winter-spring Mississippi River water levels
- Anticipated Chinese purchases — but not yet fully reflected in the order books
- Ongoing tariff-related price volatility and margin shifts in the export pipeline
Corn: Large supply pressures persist. Brazil’s record safrinha corn crop continues to weigh on global markets:
• Heavy supplies remain available through Q1, particularly from Mato Grosso exporters who moved aggressively once field drying improved.
• Price spreads still favor Brazilian FOB Santos/Paranaguá over U.S. Gulf for most forward months.
• U.S. exporters note that tariff dynamics elsewhere in the world (notably China and Southeast Asia) may be more important to corn flows than outright price spreads — but Brazil’s dominance is firmly intact for now.
Bottom Line: Brazil is closing out another massive harvest, and South American soybeans remain priced to move. Until Chinese buying materializes at scale — or freight/logistics costs shift — U.S. new-crop beans will continue to struggle against South America’s export discount.
—Record low October placements deepen tight cattle supply outlook
USDA’s first post-shutdown feedlot report shows steep drop in placements, reinforcing long-term herd contraction
USDA’s delayed Cattle on Feed report — its first since the 43-day gov’t shutdown —underscored the depth of the U.S. cattle supply squeeze, confirming the lowest October placements since the data series began in 1996.
Cattle and calves on feed in 1,000-head-plus lots totaled 11.7 million head on Nov. 1, 2% below last year and broadly in line with the average analyst expectation (97.9% of year-ago).
The standout number was placements: 2.04 million head in October, down 10% from 2024 and well below the 92.2% estimate. Net placements were 1.99 million head.
Weight breakdowns showed declines across the board:
• <600 lbs: 515,000 head
• 600–699 lbs: 420,000 head
• 700–799 lbs: 445,000 head
• 800–899 lbs: 384,000 head
• 900–999 lbs: 195,000 head
• 1,000 lbs+: 80,000 head
Marketings totaled 1.7 million head, 8% below last year and slightly under expectations (92% vs. 92.5% est.). Other disappearances were 54,000 head, down 2%.
Analysts said the sharp drop in placements reflects both tight feeder supplies and weather-related delays earlier in the fall. With October placements historically setting the tone for late-spring and summer 2026 market-ready numbers, Friday’s report reinforces expectations for continued tight fed-cattle availability — and sustained pressure on packer margins — well into next year.
—Colombia drops tariffs on key ag inputs — a temporary lifeline as U.S. farmers face the opposite trend
Bogotá slashes duties to 0% on fertilizers and crop-protection products, offering producers a year of relief while U.S. farmers continue to battle rising input costs
Colombia’s government has implemented one of its largest cost-relief measures of the decade, issuing Decree 1183 on Nov. 8 to cut tariffs to 0% for one year on 76 categories of agricultural inputs, including fertilizers, active ingredients, and plant protection products. The measure — framed as an exceptional and temporary tariff deferral —will be re-evaluated in late 2026 based on global prices and the Producer Price Index.
Officials describe the move as a response to three years of elevated global fertilizer and agrochemical costs fueled by supply-chain disruptions, high energy prices, and geopolitical tensions dating back to 2021. Agriculture Minister Martha Carvajalino called the tariff elimination “an opportunity to continue strengthening agricultural production, the engine of economic growth and exports,” adding that it aligns with global market conditions and the government’s broader food-security and climate-resilience goals.
Industry groups say the shift will meaningfully lower fertilizer and pesticide costs during 2026, supporting planting decisions, restoring acreage, improving margins, and helping Colombia maintain export competitiveness as logistics costs remain elevated. The relief is not a structural tariff reform; continuation will depend on price behavior, availability of inputs, and producer economics.
How this compares to the U.S.: diverging cost pressures. While Colombia is temporarily wiping out tariffs to lower producer costs, U.S. farmers are facing the opposite environment — persistent or rising input costs across fertilizers, chemicals, energy, and equipment, even as commodity prices soften.
Here’s how the situations diverge:
1. Fertilizer costs
Colombia: Direct government action reduces tariffs to zero, creating an immediate downward impact on prices at the port.
United States:
• Fertilizer prices remain elevated relative to pre-2021 levels despite some moderation.
• U.S. tariffs and trade frictions — especially Section 232 steel impacts on domestic nitrogen facilities, and the shifting tariff architecture under President Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” framework — continue feeding cost volatility.
• Global ammonia markets remain tight due to geopolitics (e.g., Russian and Middle Eastern production flows).
• Producers report inconsistent relief from international price swings due to transportation, dealer margins, and regional bottlenecks.
2. Crop protection products
Colombia: Tariff elimination directly lowers chemical import costs for 2026.
United States:
• Chemical costs remain stubbornly high, partly driven by elevated manufacturing costs, regulatory constraints, and supply chain realignments.
• Some active ingredients remain affected by China-linked pricing and U.S. tariff structures that feed import-cost pass-through.
• Layering of EPA regulatory reviews (and litigation) adds indirect cost burdens unlike in Colombia’s approach.
3. Government approach
Colombia:
• Rapid, targeted tariff relief to blunt producer costs.
• Explicit monitoring of PPI and input availability to determine whether the 0% rate extends beyond one year.
U.S.:
• Policy environment trending toward higher, not lower, tariff exposure across ag inputs (fertilizers, machinery components, chemicals, and steel).
• Input-cost relief programs — such as USDA disaster payments, ECAP reimbursements, and CCC support — provide cashflow backstops but do not lower input prices directly.
• State-level fertilizer fee increases, and environmental compliance costs further widen the cost gap.
4. Competitive positioning
Colombia: Boosts competitiveness just as global markets tighten and weather risks mount in 2026. Lower input costs can expand acreage.
United States: Higher input costs + flat or softer commodity prices = margin compression, especially for corn, wheat, cotton, and cattle feedlots relying on expensive feed and energy.
Bottom Line: Colombia is using aggressive, temporary tariff elimination to reduce farmers’ costs during a volatile global period — essentially pushing input prices downward at a time when U.S. producers are experiencing the opposite dynamic. While Colombia’s policy aims to restore acreage and strengthen export competitiveness, U.S. farmers continue to operate in a high-cost environment shaped by global price pressures, tariff structures, energy markets, and regulatory burdens, with relief arriving mainly through supplemental payments rather than direct price reductions.
—Brazil’s egg giants go global
Latin America’s producers accelerate cross-border expansion in a rapidly transforming market
Brazil’s leading egg companies are reshaping a sector long confined to local markets, launching a fast-moving wave of multinational acquisitions across the United States, Europe, and South America. The country is now driving a regional shift toward globalized supply chains, modernized operations, and international consolidation.
A major turning point came this year when one of Brazil’s largest poultry conglomerates acquired a top U.S. egg producer — just months after purchasing a European specialist in egg production. The company also expanded within the European Union, adding nearly one million laying hens to its network, and is reportedly finalizing a Southern Cone acquisition that would further increase its global footprint. With these moves, Brazilian groups are edging closer to the scale of traditional powerhouses in North America and Mexico.
A second major Brazilian firm is advancing the same strategy, buying a large U.S. operation hit hard by highly pathogenic avian influenza through a joint venture with another Brazilian poultry giant. The pace and scale of dealmaking mark a break from the egg industry’s past, which analysts describe as “strictly national” and far less globalized than the broiler sector.
Larger, cross-border companies tend to standardize processes, improve efficiency, and diversify risk — important advantages in an era shaped by avian-influenza shocks, climate pressures, and shifting consumer demand. But consolidation could also reshape market structure, pricing, and competition.
The transformation will take center stage at next year’s Latin American Poultry Summit ahead of IPPE 2026, where executives will assess what many already view as a generational shift. For the first time, Latin America — led decisively by Brazil — is driving a multinational expansion that is redefining the global architecture of the egg industry.
| FARM POLICY |
—Sugar policy peace in Washington
Bloomberg: How Big Candy won its first real concession — and why prices still won’t fall anytime soon
In a rare détente brokered in a Four Seasons conference room, Big Sugar and Big Candy have agreed to the first meaningful softening of the U.S. sugar program in decades — a program that Bloomberg Government notes costs food manufacturers and consumers up to $3.5 billion annually, according to GAO estimates. The accord, tucked quietly into President Donald Trump’s tax package earlier this year, showcases both the entrenched political power of the sugar lobby and how difficult it is to unwind policies that contribute to higher food prices at a time when “affordability is at the top of voters’ concerns.”
A lobbying war pauses — but the program endures. Bloomberg Government reports that more than 40 lobbyists representing sugar producers and food manufacturers spent the better part of a year hashing out a compromise after a tense initial 2023 meeting in a Georgetown hotel. It was the first formal meeting between the two sides since 1996.
The result was modest but historic:
•Manufacturers secured more flexibility on import caps — a potential stabilizer for U.S. sugar prices.
•Producers secured higher taxpayer-backed price supports, effectively raising the guaranteed minimum price for cane and beet sugar.
For confectioners, this incremental win was nevertheless significant. “The changes amount to the first-ever meaningful sugar program reforms,” said Grant Colvin, who leads the Alliance for Fair Sugar Policy.
But producers emphasized that the core framework remains intact. Elizabeth Fusick of the American Sugar Alliance said the continuation of supports “maintain a strong and consistent supply of domestic sugar.”
Why the deal happened now. According to Bloomberg Government’s reporting, candymakers shifted strategy after decades of failed attempts to unwind the program. As Brian McKeon of the National Confectioners Association put it: “Our intention for this farm bill cycle was to do something different… It was to acknowledge that they’re really strong. But it’s an era of high food inflation.”
Committee leaders on both the House and Senate Agriculture panels pushed both sides to negotiate to avoid another legislative blowup like the fights that dogged the 2014 and 2018 farm bills. Months of back-and-forth proposals ensued, ultimately producing legislative text both sides could live with. Lobbyists reportedly shook hands — even “bro-hugged,” Bloomberg Government writes — after ratifying the final compromise.
The Fanjul influence and the power of sugar money. The piece also highlights the central role of the Fanjul family — billionaire owners of the world’s largest cane-sugar refining company and prolific political donors. Jose “Pepe” Fanjul, a close Trump ally, was singled out by the president during a donor event. Trump quipped: “He’s got a little sugar business… He has a monopoly on the world’s sugar.”
Their political network underscores why the program has survived repeated reform efforts. Between cane and beet PACs, the sugar sector spent more than $7.5 million on donations in 2024 and millions more on lobbying. One academic study found lawmakers changed their votes on sugar issues after receiving industry PAC contributions.
Critics argue the structure is indefensible. Bryan Riley of the National Taxpayers Union called sugar policy an example of “pick[ing] winners and reward[ing] them based on their political clout.”
Producers push back at GAO analysis. Sugar producers dispute claims of excessive costs or distortions. Rob Johansson, chief economist at the American Sugar Alliance, sharply criticized the GAO’s findings, telling Bloomberg Government the report contains “major and obvious errors in their analysis of sugar policy and markets in the United States.” He pointed to research suggesting candy makers have enjoyed strong profitability over the past decade — even under elevated sugar prices.
What comes next: With food prices still a dominant political issue ahead of the 2026 midterms, advocates for sugar-using industries believe momentum may finally be shifting. As McKeon put it: “If there’s ever a farm bill again… we’ve changed the muscle memory here in agricultural policy.” But given the enduring political strength of Big Sugar — and the limited nature of this compromise — major structural reform remains elusive.
—EU set to push back deforestation rule by one year
Parliament poised to endorse delay, opening door to further revisions in 2026
The European Parliament is expected on Wednesday to approve a one-year postponement of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), aligning with changes endorsed by EU member states. The move would shift enforcement for large and medium-sized companies to Dec. 30, 2026, and for small firms to June 30, 2027.
Member states also want the European Commission to undertake a “simplification review,” a step that could allow the regulation to be reopened and amended next year. Parliament must adopt the delay before Dec. 30, 2025, the date when the EUDR was originally scheduled to take effect.
| ENERGY MARKETS & POLICY |
—Oil prices fell today, extending last week’s decline of about 3%, as investors weighed the chances for a U.S. rate cut against the prospect of a Russia/Ukraine deal that could free up more Russian supply through an easing of sanctions. Brent crude futures slipped 0.9% to $61.98 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 1% at $57.46 a barrel. Some analysts said the selloff was triggered mainly by President Donald Trump’s forceful push for a Russia/Ukraine peace deal, which markets see as a fast track to unlocking substantial Russian supply.
| TRADE POLICY |
—Brazil and Australia emerge as early winners in Trump’s tariff realignment
Lula secures key exemptions as Australia benefits from surging gold and beef flows
President Donald Trump’s latest executive order carved out major relief for Brazil, exempting dozens of food products — including coffee and beef — from the new round of heightened U.S. tariffs. The decision shields many of Brazil’s most important exports from cost-raising duties, marking a clear diplomatic and economic win for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Australia is also proving to be an under-the-radar beneficiary of the tariff cycle. Rising U.S. demand for Australian gold and beef has strengthened Canberra’s trade balance with Washington, positioning the country as another unexpected winner in the evolving tariff environment.
—Japan/China beef talks collapse amid diplomatic rift
Taiwan dispute halts planned restart of Japanese beef exports after 24 years
Negotiations to restart Japanese beef exports to China — halted since the 2001 mad cow disease ban — have fallen apart as a political dispute over Taiwan spills into economic ties, according to Nikkei.
A senior Japanese official said Beijing canceled what was expected to be a final round of technical talks needed to lift the 24-year ban, despite both governments having implemented a quarantine agreement in July that was supposed to clear the way for resumed shipments.
Tokyo had been preparing to finalize export protocols, including radiation-testing procedures. But relations have deteriorated sharply since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Nov. 7 parliamentary comments on Taiwan prompted a harsh response from Beijing. China has also effectively halted imports of Japanese seafood.
Japan’s government had planned to nearly double total beef exports to ¥113.2 billion ($723 million) by 2030, with roughly ¥20 billion expected to come from renewed access to China — a level comparable to Japan’s beef exports to the United States. That goal is now in jeopardy as diplomatic tensions override months of progress.
—A stronger North American trade deal
Why USMCA needs fixes before next year’s review
In a new Wall Street Journal opinion column (link), Mary Anastasia O’Grady argues that while the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has delivered major economic gains, its future stability depends on confronting persistent violations before the July 2026 “joint review.”
As she writes, recent trade data showing Mexico as America’s No. 1 export market “couldn’t be better” timed for those seeking to preserve the deal — but only if the partners use the review to shore up compliance.
O’Grady highlights the scale of North American integration: Mexico bought $226 billion in U.S. goods from January through August, while Canada purchased $225 billion.
Business groups warn the stakes are enormous. The Business Roundtable told USTR that “trade with Canada and Mexico supports 13 million American jobs today,” and since USMCA took effect, the region has seen a 50% increase in two-way trade totaling $1.9 trillion.
Manufacturers, too, credit the pact. The National Association of Manufacturers called USMCA “the most pro-U.S. manufacturing trade agreement in history” and a “core driver of…global competitiveness.” The Chamber of Commerce emphasized that the two neighbors now buy one-third of all U.S. agricultural exports and more U.S. manufactured goods than the next 12 markets combined.
Yet O’Grady warns that unresolved disputes are accumulating. “The agreement mostly works, but glaring holes are a problem,” she writes, pointing to:
• U.S. noncompliance with a panel ruling on auto-parts content rules.
• Canadian protectionism in dairy, banking, and telecom.
• Mexico’s broad violations, which business groups describe as chronic. The American Petroleum Institute told USTR that Mexico has “violated its commitments in the USMCA persistently and with impunity,” especially in energy where regulators have tilted the field toward state firms Pemex and CFE.
Other stakeholders cite Mexico’s failure to uphold intellectual-property protections, government-procurement rules, and the independence of regulatory bodies — problems worsened by Morena’s judicial power grab.
With more than 1,500 submissions filed during the public-comment period and such intense interest that the ITC had to move the USMCA hearing to Dec. 3–5, O’Grady argues that Washington cannot afford complacency. If the partners fail to reach consensus next summer, annual reviews could continue until 2036 — when, absent agreement, the pact could automatically terminate.
Her conclusion: The Trump administration’s rhetoric about trade may be skeptical, but the economic record is clear. “Contrary to the demagoguery we hear from President Trump and Vice President JD Vance, trade with the neighbors is making us richer.” Preserving that prosperity, she says, means using the upcoming review to “force compliance” — before the region risks unraveling one of its most important economic pillars.
—Canada rewrites its trade map as Trump’s tariffs bite
Ottawa turns to Beijing and New Delhi in bid to halve its reliance on U.S. markets
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is accelerating a sweeping reset of Canada’s foreign-economic strategy as President Donald Trump’s tariffs squeeze the country’s export-driven economy. According to the Washington Post, the rupture with Washington is pushing Ottawa toward cautious rapprochements with two of its most complicated partners — China and India — as Carney seeks to double non-U.S. exports by 2035.
A forced pivot after tariff shock. Trump’s aggressive levies — reinforced by threats to make Canada the “51st state” — have triggered steep drops in exports and job losses in regions most exposed to U.S. markets. Canada’s exports fell 7% in August from the 2024 average, including a 10% drop in shipments to the United States. Automakers GM and Stellantis have announced production shifts to the U.S.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned lawmakers that “trade friction means our economy will work less efficiently, with higher costs and less income,” and that GDP will remain on a lower trajectory than before the policy shift.
Carney has tried to ease tensions — even apologizing to Trump for an Ontario-funded anti-tariff ad — but trade talks remain stalled. Ottawa’s new strategic posture is spelled out bluntly in its recent budget, which says the global trading system is being “reshaped — threatening our sovereignty, our prosperity and our values.”
Reopening the China door. Carney’s surprise meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit marked the first leader-level encounter since 2017. As The Washington Post reported, Sino/Canadian ties had been “in tatters” since China’s 2018 detention of two Canadians, mutual expulsions of diplomats, and waves of retaliatory tariffs.
Yet Carney declared the meeting a “turning point,” accepted Xi’s invitation to visit China, and framed engagement as a necessary step toward diversifying exports.
Some experts warn the strategy carries risk. “Moving away from an unreliable America does not make China more reliable as a trading partner,” Lynette Ong of the University of Toronto told the WaPo. But she noted that diversification must begin with China because it is already Canada’s second-largest market.
Still, many Canadian exporters remain cautious: China accounted for just 4% of exports in 2024.
India: The other difficult courtship. Carney is also working to stabilize relations with India after a series of explosive incidents — including what Canadian law enforcement described as a 2023 assassination of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil directed by Indian officials. Both countries expelled diplomats, and India suspended visas.
Yet Carney has invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to next year’s G7 summit and restarted trade talks. The shift has angered Sikh advocacy groups, who see a retreat from Canada’s long-held insistence on sovereignty and rule of law. Balpreet Singh of the World Sikh Organization of Canada called the pivot a “complete betrayal,” telling the Post: “This relationship seems to be based pretty much on convenience.”
Building new routes — and new risks. Carney’s diversification plan includes:
• Billions for new ports, airports, and trade-facilitation staff
• A new trade deal with Indonesia
• “Energy corridors” to expand commerce with Mexico
• Fresh talks with the UAE
• A push to deepen partnerships with Europe — including potential participation in the EU’s $173 billion rearmament and procurement plan
Canadian firms appear to be preparing for a post-U.S.–centric future. Export Development Canada reports a 61% surge in website traffic and a 93% increase in visits to trade-diversification resources. But business leaders warn that replacing the U.S. market is extraordinarily difficult. Canada and the United States share the world’s longest undefended border, a common language, and deep economic integration — advantages few other markets can match. “The measures the government is taking now are the right kinds of measures,” said Gaphel Kongtsa of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. “But it won’t be easy.”
A pragmatic era. Canadian officials told the WaPo the government no longer has the “luxury” of letting domestic politics drive foreign relations. Instead, they aim for a “pragmatic” approach — accepting that some new partners may not share Canada’s values but are essential for national economic resilience.
As China grapples with weak exports and as India seeks to expand influence in the Indo-Pacific, both nations also see opportunity in warming ties with Ottawa. For Canada, the gamble is whether diversification can truly offset the loss of frictionless access to the American market — or whether the shift introduces new political, security, and economic vulnerabilities.
What’s clear, as the Post reports, is that Trump’s tariff regime has “scrambled Ottawa’s economic and political alliances” — leaving Canada to rebuild a trade model that has anchored its prosperity for generations.
| CONGRESS |
—GOP lays out ambitious reconciliation blueprint
Pfluger says Republicans have a clear governing mandate, not “populist stunts”
In a letter to the Wall Street Journal (link), Rep. August Pfluger (R-Tex.) pushes back against the claim that Republicans lack a substantive governing agenda, arguing instead that the House GOP is advancing a wide-ranging blueprint for what he calls “Reconciliation 2.0.” Pfluger, who chairs the 189-member Republican Study Committee, outlines a framework built around affordability, law-and-order provisions, and support for American families.
Pfluger says the RSC has spent months preparing proposals that can win majority support in the House and withstand Senate budget-rule scrutiny.
At the core is a push to codify President Trump’s executive actions into durable statutes — changes he argues cannot be reversed as easily as regulations or executive orders.
On affordability, Pfluger highlights healthcare reforms designed to expand options beyond ObamaCare, allow broader use of health savings accounts, ease access to low-cost generics and biosimilars, and give employers more leeway in helping workers find coverage.
On housing, the plan calls for eliminating capital-gains taxes on primary home sales, converting unused federal buildings into residences, and enabling mortgage portability so families aren’t locked in by higher rates.
The law-and-order plank would steer federal dollars away from sanctuary jurisdictions and penalize states that don’t enforce voter-ID standards.
Meanwhile, the family-focused provisions target the federal marriage penalty and promote apprenticeships as alternatives to traditional college pathways.
Pfluger argues that limiting the next reconciliation bill to tax changes would squander a rare chance at long-term reform. With a “two-year window and a clear mandate,” he writes, Republicans intend to deliver a package that reduces healthcare and housing costs while advancing Trump-era policy goals in a durable, statutory form.
| POLITICS & ELECTIONS |
—GOP House majority on a knife’s edge
Special elections and looming vacancies threaten to flip House control in 2026
The prospect that Republicans could lose their House majority before the end of this Congress is “no longer far-fetched,” as Punchbowl News put it this morning. With Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) operating on one of the thinnest margins in modern history, even a single mid-term retirement, death, or extended illness could shift control to Democrats at some point in 2026.
Republicans currently hold 219 seats to Democrats’ 213. A Dec. 2 special election in Tennessee to replace former Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) has drawn heavy spending from both parties — even though Donald Trump carried the district by more than 20 points. If Republicans hold it, the GOP’s narrow margin remains unchanged following Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) retirement.
Democrats, however, are about to gain ground. Houston-area voters will elect a replacement for the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas) at the end of January. On April 16, New Jersey voters will choose Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s successor — a district Vice President Kamala Harris won by nine points in 2024.
Punchbowl News notes that if Democrats somehow pull off an upset in the Tennessee race — “unlikely but possible,” they write — Johnson would be left with a 218–214 majority. The Texas and New Jersey specials would close that gap to 218–216. At that point, “if any members retire or fall ill, Johnson would be sunk.”
The end of the year only heightens the risk.As Punchbowl also observed, retirements and resignations often spike after the holidays, especially in a House consumed by censure votes and symbolic messaging bills — raising the question of how many members truly want to return.
—Why affordability now defines the Trump presidency
As flagship promises collide with rising living expenses, Donald Trump must now personally bear the political fallout of persistent price pressures — just as every president does
A recent editorial in the Financial Timesargues that affordability has shifted from campaign messaging to a core litmus test for Trump’s administration. The piece emphasizes that inflation and cost-of-living concerns are inherently the responsibility of the sitting president — regardless of previous conditions or structural causes. The FT observes that many voters now attribute elevated services-and-housing costs directly to the president’s policies, rather than seeing them as inherited problems.
Why this matters: The shift from “growth and jobs” to “affordability for the everyday American” marks a significant test of economic legitimacy. With wages no longer racing ahead of prices and grocery/housing costs rising sharply, the hourglass of political trust is narrowing.
Trump’s previous policy signals — such as broad tariff initiatives, immigration restrictions and infrastructure overhaul — introduced dual pressures: boosting demand while tightening supply. Analysts warn this combination rekindles inflationary pressures. As the FT piece notes:whether it’s gas pumps, grocery aisles or home-buying markets, public perception is shifting toward the view that the president is in control — or at least taking the blame.
Political implications: For Republicans heading into the 2026 election cycle, the affordability narrative is now a growing vulnerability. The FT backs this, pointing to recent Democratic gains in off-year contests as voters punish economic discomfort.
Trump’s messaging risks a credibility mismatch: asserting “prices are down” or “we’ve fixed inflation” is colliding with everyday Americans who still see rising bills and housing unaffordability. The FT cautions this gap could widen into a liability.
Policymaking options appear constrained. The FT highlights that initiatives like 50-year mortgages may grab headlines but do little to address underlying supply constraints, which are driving cost pressures.
Bottom Line: Affordability has become his problem. For President Trump, the economics of cost-of-living are no longer a macro statistical abstraction — they’re a direct measure of his presidential performance. The Financial Times’ framing suggests that unless the narrative of rising costs is reversed (or at least slowed substantially), the “affordability test” will increasingly define his political standing and that of his party.
| White House pushes back against claims it’s ignoring the economyAmid slipping poll numbers, officials highlight tax cuts, falling costs and potential tariff dividends The White House is trying to counter rising criticism that President Donald Trump has not devoted enough attention to the nation’s affordability concerns, even as a new CBS News/YouGov poll shows widespread frustration. While Americans rank the economy as Trump’s top priority, 77% say he isn’t spending enough time on it. His approval rating on economic management has slid to 36%, down from 41% in September and 51% in March. Senior officials fanned out across Sunday shows to shift the narrative. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued that households haven’t yet incorporated the administration’s tax cuts into their planning for 2026 — measures he says will deliver bigger tax refunds and more take-home pay once withholding is adjusted. On NBC, Bessent pointed to easing interest rates, a strong October for home sales, lower fuel prices and even cheaper Thanksgiving turkeys as signs that costs are already receding. He added that further relief on healthcare expenses is coming. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told Fox’s Sunday Morning Futures that skeptics are underestimating Trump’s resolve on issuing $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks. Even though analysts doubt the plan will materialize, Hassett said that if tariff revenue continues to rise, Trump will “look into it.” What’s Next: Trump raised eyebrows with a warm Oval Office meeting with New York mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, who ran on affordability. Over the weekend, Trump insisted on social media that Americans haven’t fully recognized the progress already made on the economy: “Things are really Rockin.’” |
| WEATHER |
— NWS outlook: A stretch snow expected to begin near the Canadian border of Montana today into tonight, then across the northern Plains on Tuesday, and into
the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning… …Well above average temperatures continue for much of the central/eastern U.S. but turning blustery and much colder from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Plains.
