Trump Claims Tariffs Made Ranchers Prosper, but Economists Say the Picture Is More Complex
Fact-checkers find partial truth in Trump’s statement linking cattle industry gains solely to his trade policies
President Donald Trump took to Truth Social today to argue that U.S. cattle ranchers owe their recent success to his trade actions.
Trump on Truth Social said: “The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil. If it weren’t for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years — Terrible! It would be nice if they would understand that, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!”
Trump’s claim blends elements of truth with overstatement. It’s accurate that his administration imposed a 50% tariff on certain Brazilian agricultural imports, including beef. Those tariffs were framed as a move to bolster U.S. producers and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
However, economists note that the cattle sector’s profitability this year stems primarily from a historically small U.S. herd, the lowest since the early 1950s, following years of drought and high feed costs. These tight supplies have pushed cattle and beef prices higher, benefiting ranchers independently of tariff policy.
While tariffs can support domestic producers by curbing competition, analysts emphasize that such measures typically raise prices for consumers rather than lower them, contradicting Trump’s suggestion that tariffs help reduce costs at the grocery store.
Bottom Line: Trump’s tariffs have played some role in shaping market conditions, but they are far from the sole reason ranchers are “doing so well.” The broader story includes weather, supply constraints, and strong beef demand — not just trade policy.
